National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants

Efficacy and tolerability of the single-pill combination of aliskiren 300 mg/amlodipine 10 mg in hypertensive patients not controlled by olmesartan 40 mg/amlodipine 10 mg

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate whether the single pill combination (SPC) of aliskiren 300 mg and amlodipine 10 mg (ALIS 300/AMLO 10) improves blood pressure (BP) reduction in hypertensive patients not adequately controlled by the SPC olmesartan 40 mg and amlodipine 10 mg (OLM 40/AMLO 10).

METHODS

Open-label, non-randomized single-arm study. Patients with stage 2 hypertension were titrated to the SPC OLM 40/AMLO 10 (4-week Phase 1). If hypertension was not controlled they were switched to the SPC ALIS 300/AMLO 10 (4-week Phase 2). In the optional 4-week study extension hydrochlorothiazide (HCT) 12.5 mg was added. EudraCT 2009-016693-33.

RESULTS

In the 342 patients treated, OLM 40/AMLO 10 reduced systolic BP (SBP)/diastolic BP (DBP) by 24.5/14.5 mmHg by end of Phase 1. Those 187 patients with uncontrolled hypertension at the end of Phase 1 switched to ALIS 300/AMLO 10 experienced a further SBP reduction of 5.1 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7 to 6.5, p < 0.0001) and a DBP reduction of 4.8 mmHg (95% CI 3.8 to 5.8; p < 0.0001) in Phase 2. DBP or SBP responder rates were achieved by 51.3% or 44.4%, respectively, SBP and DBP normalization by 36.4%. In 65 patients whose BP was not controlled in Phase 2, SPC ALIS 300/AMLO 10/HCT 12.5 mg decreased SBP/DBP by further 8.1/6.7 mmHg (p < 0.0001 each). No deaths or serious adverse events were noted. Significant adverse events leading to study discontinuation were reported in 2.6% (Phase 1), 2.7% (Phase 2), and 0% (extension). Limitations included the open-label, single-arm non-randomized design, and the relatively short duration.

CONCLUSIONS

In this switch study reflecting clinical practice, patients with moderate hypertension not controlled by the SPC OLM 40/AMLO 10 achieved a clinically and statistically significant reduction of blood pressure from the SPC ALIS 300/AMLO 10 and the optional addition of HCT. All drug combinations were well tolerated.

Gene-sodium interaction and blood pressure: findings from genomics research of blood pressure salt sensitivity

High blood pressure (BP) is a complex trait determined by both genetic and environmental factors, as well as the interactions between these factors. Over the past few decades, there has been substantial progress in elucidating the genetic determinants underlying the BP response to sodium intake, or BP salt sensitivity. Research of monogenic BP disorders has highlighted the importance of renal salt handling in BP regulation, implicating genes and biological pathways related to salt sensitivity. Candidate gene studies have contributed important information toward understanding the genomic mechanisms underlying the BP response to salt intake, identifying genes in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, renal sodium channels/transporters, and the endothelial system related to this phenotype. Despite these advancements, genome-wide association studies are still needed to uncover novel mechanisms underlying salt sensitivity, while future sequencing efforts promise the discovery of functional variants related to this complex trait. Delineating the genetic architecture of salt sensitivity will be critical to understanding how genes and dietary sodium interact to influence BP.

Chronic noncommunicable diseases and HIV-AIDS on a collision course: relevance for health care delivery, particularly in low-resource settings--insights from South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a multiple disease burden. Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are emerging, and their risk factors are becoming more common as lifestyles change and rates of urbanization increase. Simultaneously, epidemics of infectious diseases persist, and HIV/AIDS has taken hold in the region, although recent data indicate a decrease in new HIV infection rates. With the use of diabetes as a marker for NCDs, it was estimated that the number of people with diabetes would rise between 2000 and 2010 despite the HIV/AIDS epidemic, largely because of the aging of the population and the increase in risk factors for diabetes in South Africa. These numbers are likely to increase further, given the declining HIV/AIDS mortality rates and longer life expectancy due to the up-scaling of antiretroviral therapy (ART), with its concomitant metabolic complications. Given that treated HIV/AIDS has become a chronic disease, and the health care needs of people on ART resemble those of people with NCDs, and given that vertical programs are difficult to sustain when health systems are underresourced and strained, there is a powerful argument to integrate the primary level care for people with chronic diseases, whether they be NCDs or infectious diseases. Pilot studies are required to test the feasibility of an integrated service that extends from health facilities into the community in a reciprocal manner based on the WHO Innovative Care for Chronic Conditions model of care. These will begin to provide the evidence that policy makers need to change the mode of health care delivery.

National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

Background

Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods.

Methods

We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework.

Results

In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000) deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000) deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9) and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9) in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions.

Discussion

Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran. Interventions for other metabolic risk factors and smoking can also improve population health.

The growing caseload of chronic life-long conditions calls for a move towards full self-management in low-income countries

Background

The growing caseload caused by patients with chronic life-long conditions leads to increased needs for health care providers and rising costs of health services, resulting in a heavy burden on health systems, populations and individuals. The professionalised health care for chronic patients common in high income countries is very labour-intensive and expensive. Moreover, the outcomes are often poor. In low-income countries, the scarce resources and the lack of quality and continuity of health care result in high health care expenditure and very poor health outcomes. The current proposals to improve care for chronic patients in low-income countries are still very much provider-centred.

The aim of this paper is to show that present provider-centred models of chronic care are not adequate and to propose 'full self-management' as an alternative for low-income countries, facilitated by expert patient networks and smart phone technology.

Discussion

People with chronic life-long conditions need to 'rebalance' their life in order to combine the needs related to their chronic condition with other elements of their life. They have a crucial role in the management of their condition and the opportunity to gain knowledge and expertise in their condition and its management. Therefore, people with chronic life-long conditions should be empowered so that they become the centre of management of their condition. In full self-management, patients become the hub of management of their own care and take full responsibility for their condition, supported by peers, professionals and information and communication tools.

We will elaborate on two current trends that can enhance the capacity for self-management and coping: the emergence of peer support and expert-patient networks and the development and distribution of smart phone technology both drastically expand the possibilities for full self-management.

Conclusion

Present provider-centred models of care for people with chronic life-long conditions are not adequate and we propose 'full self-management' as an alternative for low-income countries, supported by expert networks and smart phone technology.

Twenty-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in India and influence of educational status

BACKGROUND

Urban middle-socioeconomic status (SES) subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income countries. To determine secular trends in risk factors among this population and to correlate risks with educational status we performed epidemiological studies in India.

METHODS

Five cross-sectional studies were performed in middle-SES urban locations in Jaipur, India from years 1992 to 2010. Cluster sampling was performed. Subjects (men, women) aged 20-59 years evaluated were 712 (459, 253) in 1992-94, 558 (286, 272) in 1999-2001, 374 (179, 195) in 2002-03, 887 (414, 473) in 2004-05, and 530 (324, 206) in 2009-10. Data were obtained by history, anthropometry, and fasting blood glucose and lipids estimation. Response rates varied from 55 to 75%. Mean values and risk factor prevalence were determined. Secular trends were identified using quadratic and log-linear regression and chi-squared for trend.

RESULTS

Across the studies, there was high prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and lipid abnormalities. Age- and sex-adjusted trends showed significant increases in mean body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (quadratic and log-linear regression, p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure (BP) decreased while insignificant changes were observed for waist-hip ratio and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Categorical trends showed increase in overweight and decrease in smoking (p < 0.05); insignificant changes were observed in truncal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes. Adjustment for educational status attenuated linear trends in BMI and total and LDL cholesterol and accentuated trends in systolic BP, glucose, and HDL cholesterol. There was significant association of an increase in education with decline in smoking and an increase in overweight (two-line regression p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In Indian urban middle-SES subjects there is high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a 20-year period BMI and overweight increased, smoking and systolic BP decreased, and truncal obesity, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes remained stable. Increasing educational status attenuated trends for systolic BP, glucose and HDL cholesterol, and BMI.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based strategies for blood pressure control in a low-income developing country: findings from a cluster-randomized, factorial-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Evidence on economically efficient strategies to lower blood pressure (BP) from low- and middle-income countries remains scarce. The Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation (COBRA) trial randomized 1341 hypertensive subjects in 12 randomly selected communities in Karachi, Pakistan, to 3 intervention programs: (1) combined home health education (HHE) plus trained general practitioner (GP); (2) HHE only; and (3) trained GP only. The comparator was no intervention (or usual care). The reduction in BP was most pronounced in the combined group. The present study examined the cost-effectiveness of these strategies.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Total costs were assessed at baseline and 2 years to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios based on (1) intervention cost; (2) cost of physician consultation, medications, diagnostics, changes in lifestyle, and productivity loss; and (3) change in systolic BP. Precision of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates was assessed by 1000 bootstrapping replications. Bayesian probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also performed. The annual costs per participant associated with the combined HHE plus trained GP, HHE alone, and trained GP alone were $3.99, $3.34, and $0.65, respectively. HHE plus trained GP was the most cost-effective intervention, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $23 (95 confidence interval, 6-99) per mm Hg reduction in systolic BP compared with usual care, and remained so in 97.7 of 1000 bootstrapped replications.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined intervention of HHE plus trained GP is potentially affordable and more cost-effective for BP control than usual care or either strategy alone in some communities in Pakistan, and possibly other countries in Indochina with similar healthcare infrastructure.

High prevalence and low awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in Asian Indian women

Hypertension is an important public health problem in India. To determine its prevalence, awareness, treatment and control among women, we performed a nationwide study. Population-based studies among women aged 35-70 years were performed in four urban and five rural locations. Stratified sampling was performed and we enrolled 4608 (rural 2604 and urban 2004) of the targeted 8000 (57%). Demographic details, medical history, diet, physical activity, anthropometry and blood pressure (BP) were recorded. Descriptive statistics are reported. Logistic regression was performed to determine the association of hypertension and its awareness, treatment and control with socioeconomic factors. Age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension (known or BP≥140/≥90 mm Hg) was observed in 1672 women (39.2%) (rural 746, 31.5%; urban 926, 48.2%). Significant determinants of hypertension were urban location, greater literacy, high dietary fat, low fibre intake, obesity and truncal obesity (P<0.01). Hypertension awareness was noted in 727 women (42.8%), more in urban (529, 56.8%) than in rural (198, 24.6%). Of these, 38.6% of the women were on treatment (urban 35.7, rural 46.5) and of those treated, controlled blood pressure (<140 and <90 mm Hg) was observed in 21.5% (urban 28.3 vs 10.2). Among hypertensive subjects, treatment was noted in 18.3% (rural 13.1, urban 22.5) and control in 3.9% (rural 1.3, urban 5.9). A significant determinant of low awareness, treatment and control was rural location (multivariate-adjusted P<0.05). There is a high prevalence of hypertension in middle-aged Asian Indian women. Very low awareness, treatment and control status are observed.

Secular trends of blood pressure, body mass index, lipids and fasting glucose among children and adolescents in Turkey

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT

•  Turkey is in a state of rapid transition and urbanization. There is ample evidence for an increased cardiovascular risk over the past two decades in Turkey. •  Obesity, dyslipidemia and high blood pressure in children are markers of the future burden of cardiovascular disease and clustering of cardiovascular risk factors starts early in life. •  The patterns of cardiovascular risk factors in populations are not static over time and the secular trends in obesity and cardiovascular risk factors among children and adolescents of developing countries have not been completely defined.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

•  The prevalences of obesity and high blood pressure have increased several folds among Turkish children and adolescents over the past two decades. •  The temporal trends in fasting glucose and lipids did not correlate with the increasing prevalence of obesity with the exception of HDL-C levels. •  Finally, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome has doubled in Turkish children and adolescents over the last two decades. Our findings indicate that there may be an increase in the future morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease, thrombosis, stroke and diabetes mellitus throughout the developing countries.

SUMMARY

Patterns of cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome risk criteria in populations are not static over time. We analyzed the trends in lipid levels, blood pressure, fasting glucose and body mass index over the last two decades among children and adolescents. Two different cross-sectional studies were examined among students (ages 8-18) in 1989 (n = 1385) and in 2008 (n = 1746). Using the international cut-off points and percentiles, we identified children and adolescents with elevated blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose (≥100 mg dL(-1) ), body mass index and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. The prevalence of obesity has increased several folds over the last two decades. According to the international criteria, 4.3% of children were obese and 15.2% were overweight in 2008 vs. only 0.6% obese and 4.3% overweight in 1989 (P < 0.001). The prevalence of elevated systolic blood pressure also increased significantly among 8-12-year-old boys and girls (28.5 vs. 15.7%, P < 0.001). The temporal trends in fasting glucose and lipids did not correlate with the increasing prevalence of obesity with the exception of HDL-C levels. Low HDL-C (≤ 10th percentile) was observed in 16.3% in 1989 vs. 21.6% in 2008 (P = 0.016). HDL-C levels decreased significantly among adolescent boys. Finally, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome by modified National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criteria has doubled over the last two decades (2.2 vs. 4.5%, P < 0.001). Strategies for combating the future cardiovascular mortality should focus on the prevention of obesity, high blood pressure and metabolic syndrome among children and adolescents.

UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases: addressing four questions

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), principally heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases, are a global crisis and require a global response. Despite the threat to human development, and the availability of affordable, cost-effective, and feasible interventions, most countries, development agencies, and foundations neglect the crisis. The UN High-Level Meeting (UN HLM) on NCDs in September, 2011, is an opportunity to stimulate a coordinated global response to NCDs that is commensurate with their health and economic burdens. To achieve the promise of the UN HLM, several questions must be addressed. In this report, we present the realities of the situation by answering four questions: is there really a global crisis of NCDs; how is NCD a development issue; are affordable and cost-effective interventions available; and do we really need high-level leadership and accountability? Action against NCDs will support other global health and development priorities. A successful outcome of the UN HLM depends on the heads of states and governments attending the meeting, and endorsing and implementing the commitments to action. Long-term success requires inspired and committed national and international leadership.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories.

METHODS

We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women.

INTERPRETATION

Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Changes in the rates of awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in Canada over the past two decades

BACKGROUND

Analyses of medication databases indicate marked increases in prescribing of antihypertensive drugs in Canada over the past decade. This study was done to examine the trends in the prevalence of hypertension and in control rates in Canada between 1992 and 2009.

METHODS

Three population-based surveys, the 1986-1992 Canadian Heart Health Surveys, the 2006 Ontario Survey on the Prevalence and Control of Hypertension and the 2007-2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey, collected self-reported health information from, and measured blood pressure among, community-dwelling adults.

RESULTS

The population prevalence of hypertension was stable between 1992 and 2009 at 19.7%-21.6%. Hypertension control improved from 13.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7%-15.7%) in 1992 to 64.6% (95% CI 60.0%-69.2%) in 2009, reflecting improvements in awareness (from 56.9% [95% CI 53.1%-60.5%] in 1992 to 82.5% [95% CI 78.5%-86.0%] in 2009) and treatment (from 34.6% [95% CI 29.2%-40.0%] in 1992 to 79.0% [95% CI 71.3%-86.7%] in 2009) among people with hypertension. The size of improvements in awareness, treatment and control were similar among people who had or did not have cardiovascular comorbidities Although systolic blood pressures among patients with untreated hypertension were similar between 1992 and 2009 (ranging from 146 [95% CI 145-147] mm Hg to 148 [95% CI 144-151] mm Hg), people who did not have hypertension and patients with hypertension that was being treated showed substantially lower systolic pressures in 2009 than in 1992 (113 [95% CI 112-114] v. 117 [95% CI 117-117] mm Hg and 128 [95% CI 126-130] v. 145 [95% CI 143-147] mm Hg).

INTERPRETATION

The prevalence of hypertension has remained stable among community-dwelling adults in Canada over the past two decades, but the rates for treatment and control of hypertension have improved markedly during this time.

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants

BACKGROUND

Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI.

METHODS

We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative.

FINDINGS

Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase >0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability >0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities >0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities >0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.