Anticipating critical transitions

The livestock sector and its stakeholders in the search to meet the animal welfare requirements of society

Multi-stakeholder support is crucial to chain parties delivering against the (latent) demand and consumption of animal-friendly products. Actors take an ambiguous position in dealing with the issue of animal welfare improvements, partly because such improvements deviate from the dominant business model aimed at efficient delivery to export markets. This makes multi-stakeholder dialogues an important factor in channelling the issue of animal welfare and, ultimately, in migrating towards more animal-friendly production systems. This paper studies the dynamics in the chain - including lock-ins and barriers - through which the Dutch livestock sector searches for a new equilibrium with society; in this case, through the development of an in-between segment. This analysis improves our understanding of how transitions work on sustainability issues in the agriculture sector. Developing an in-between segment for animal friendly production requires many small steps and stakeholder interactions and the creation of a delicate balance between reactive and (pro)active efforts.

A test of critical thresholds and their indicators in a desertification-prone ecosystem: more resilience than we thought

Theoretical models predict that drylands can cross critical thresholds, but experimental manipulations to evaluate them are non-existent. We used a long-term (13-year) pulse-perturbation experiment featuring heavy grazing and shrub removal to determine if critical thresholds and their determinants can be demonstrated in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands. We asked if cover values or patch-size metrics could predict vegetation recovery, supporting their use as early-warning indicators. We found that season of grazing, but not the presence of competing shrubs, mediated the severity of grazing impacts on dominant grasses. Recovery occurred at the same rate irrespective of grazing history, suggesting that critical thresholds were not crossed, even at low cover levels. Grass cover, but not patch size metrics, predicted variation in recovery rates. Some transition-prone ecosystems are surprisingly resilient; management of grazing impacts and simple cover measurements can be used to avert undesired transitions and initiate restoration.