Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list

Plasma copeptin, a possible prognostic marker in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIM

Copeptin, secreted stoichiometrically with vasopressin, demonstrated its prognostic role in various diseases other than cirrhosis.

METHODS

We investigated the association between severity of cirrhosis and plasma concentrations of copeptin, and the prognostic value of copeptin in 95 non-septic cirrhotic patients (34 Child-Pugh A, 29 CP-B, 32 CP-C), 30 septic patients with a Child-Pugh >8 ('group D'), and 16 healthy volunteers. Patients were followed for at least 12 months to assess the composite endpoint death/liver transplantation.

RESULTS

Median copeptin concentrations (interquartile range) increased through healthy volunteers group [5.95 (3.76-9.43) pmol/L] and 'group D' patients [18.81 (8.96-36.66) pmol/L; P < 0.001)]. During a median follow-up of 11.0 ± 6.1 months, 28 non-transplanted patients died and eight were transplanted. In receiver operated characteristic curves analysis, the area under the curve values were as follows: Child-Pugh score 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score 0.80 (0.70-0.86), C-reactive protein (CRP) 0.71 (0.60-0.80) and copeptin 0.70 (0.57-0.79). By stratifying the values of these variables into tertiles, the risk of death/liver transplantation for patients belonging to the highest tertile of copeptin (>13 pmol/L) was high (Log-rank test: P = 0.0002) and 2.3-fold higher than for patients with lower concentrations after adjusting for MELD score (>21) and CRP (>24 mg/L) in a Cox model. Other potential predictors (age, total cholesterol, natraemia and serum free cortisol) did not reach a significant level.

CONCLUSION

In cirrhotic patients, copeptin concentrations increased along with the severity of liver disease. In our cohort, the 1-year mortality or liver transplantation was predicted by high MELD score and high concentrations of CRP and copeptin.

Important predictor of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease

Prognosis is an essential part of the baseline assessment of any disease. For predicting prognosis of end-stage liver disease, many prognostic models were proposed. Child-Pugh score has been the reference for assessing the prognosis of cirrhosis for about three decades in end-stage liver disease. Despite of several limitations, recent large systematic review showed that Child-Pugh score was still robust predictors and it's components (bilirubin, albumin and prothrombin time) were followed by Child-Pugh score. Recently, Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score emerged as a "modern" alternative to Child-Pugh score. The MELD score has been an important role to accurately predict the severity of liver disease and effectively assess the risk of mortality. Due to several weakness of MELD score, new modified MELD scores (MELD-Na, Delta MELD) have been developed and validated. This review summarizes the current knowledge about the prognostic factors in end-stage liver disease, focusing on the role of Child-Pugh and MELD score.

Plasma fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration is increased and predicts mortality in patients on the liver-transplant waiting list

High plasma fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) concentration predicts the risk of death and poor outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease or chronic heart failure. We checked if FGF23 concentration could be modified in patients with end stage liver disease (ESLD) and predict mortality. We measured plasma FGF23 in 200 patients with ESLD registered on a liver transplant waiting list between January 2005 and October 2008. We found that median plasma FGF23 concentration was above normal values in 63% of the patients. Increased FGF23 concentration was not explained by its classical determinants: hyperphosphataemia, increased calcitriol concentration or decreased renal function. FGF23 concentration correlated with the MELD score, serum sodium concentration, and GFR. Forty-six patients died before being transplanted and 135 underwent liver transplantation. We analyzed the prognostic value of FGF23 levels. Mortality was significantly associated with FGF23 levels, the MELD score, serum sodium concentration and glomerular filtration rate. On multivariate analyses only FGF23 concentration was associated with mortality. FGF23 levels were independent of the cause of the liver disease. To determine if the damaged liver can produce FGF23 we measured plasma FGF23 concentration and liver FGF23 mRNA expression in control and diethyl-nitrosamine (DEN)-treated mice. FGF23 plasma levels increased with the apparition of liver lesions in DEN-treated mice and that FGF23 mRNA expression, which was undetectable in the liver of control mice, markedly increased with the development of liver lesions. The correlation between FGF23 plasma concentration and FGF23 mRNA expression in DEN-treated mice suggests that FGF23 production by the liver accounts for the increased plasma FGF23 concentration. In conclusion chronic liver lesions can induce expression of FGF23 mRNA leading to increased FGF23 concentration, which is associated with a higher mortality in patients on a liver-transplant waiting list. In these patients FGF23 concentration was the best predictor of mortality.

Rapid correction rate of hyponatremia as an independent risk factor for neurological complication following liver transplantation

Hyponatremia is prevalent before liver transplantation and generally corrected immediately after transplantation. However, the clinical significance of correction rate of hyponatremia is not well investigated. The prognostic impact of pre-transplant serum sodium concentrations and post-transplant correction rate of hyponatremia were assessed. A total of 512 patients who received orthotopic liver transplants were enrolled. The correction rate of hyponatremia (delta sodium, ΔNa) was calculated based on the data collected during the first 48 hours following liver transplantation. Outcomes, including in-hospital mortality, delirium, neurological complications, acute kidney injury, and infections, were compared according to the serum sodium levels (sNa < 125, 125-135, and ≥ 135 mmol/L), and the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and neurological complications were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression methods. Patients with severe hyponatremia (sNa < 125 mmol/L) had higher rates of in-hospital mortality (9.6%, P = 0.010), delirium (54.8%, P = 0.003), neurological complications (24.7%, P = 0.003), and acute kidney injury (57.5%, P = 0.005). In multivariate analysis, serum sodium levels (OR = 0.975, P = 0.402) and delta sodium (OR = 1.097, P = 0.066) were not independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. However, delta sodium (OR = 1.093, P = 0.003) and fast correction rate of hyponatremia (ΔNa ≥ 12 mmol/L/24h, OR = 3.397, P = 0.023) were significantly associated with post-transplant neurological complications. Pre-transplantation hyponatremia was not independently associated with clinical outcomes. However, rapid correction of hyponatremia is an independent risk factor for the development of post-transplant neurological complications.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and liver cirrhosis-related complications

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has gained wide acceptance for predicting survival in patients undergoing liver transplantation. The strength of this score remains in the mathematical formula derived from a multivariate Cox regression analysis; it is a continuous scale and lacks a ceiling or a floor effect with a wide range of discrimination. It is based on objective, reproducible, and readily available laboratory data and the wide range of samples which have been validated. Liver cirrhosis complications such as ascites, encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and variceal bleeding were not considered in the MELD score underestimating their direct association with the severity of liver disease. In this regard, several recent studies have shown that clinical manifestations secondary to portal hypertension are good prognostic markers in cirrhotic patients and may add additional useful prognostic information to the current MELD. We review the feasibility of MELD score as a prognostic predictor in patients with liver cirrhosis-related complications.

Role of vaptans in the management of hyponatremia

Hyponatremia, the most commonly encountered electrolyte abnormality, affects as many as 30% of hospitalized patients. It is a powerful predictor of poor outcomes, especially in patients with congestive heart failure or cirrhosis. The failure to excrete electrolyte-free water that results from persistent secretion of antidiuretic hormone despite low serum osmolality usually underlies the development of hyponatremia. Treatment depends on several factors, including the cause, overall volume status of the patient, severity of hyponatremic symptoms, and duration of hyponatremia at presentation. This review focuses on the role of the vasopressin receptor antagonists, or vaptans, in the treatment of hyponatremia. These recently introduced agents have the unique ability to induce an aquaresis, the excretion of electrolyte-free water without accompanying solutes. After a brief historical perspective and discussion of pharmacologic characteristics of vaptans, we review the accumulated experience with vaptans for the treatment of hyponatremia. Vaptans have been shown to increase serum sodium concentrations in patients with euvolemic or hypervolemic hyponatremia in a reproducible manner, but their safe use requires full understanding of their indications and contraindications.

Role of MELD score and serum creatinine as prognostic tools for the development of acute kidney injury after liver transplantation

Background

The role of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting complications, such as Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) has yet to be evaluated and serum creatinine may be too heavily weighted in the existing MELD formula, since it has many pitfalls in cirrhotic patients.

Methods

Retrospective data of the perioperative period from consecutive adult OLTs performed from January to December 2009 were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to analyze the risk factors for AKI and mortality after OLT.

Results

There were 114 OLTs performed in the study period, 22 (19,2%) were submitted to dialysis prior OLT and were excluded from the analysis for AKI. The median age was 52 years and 66% were male. Median creatinine value was 0.85mg/dL and MELD was 19. Fifty-two of the 92 patients (56,5%) developed AKI in the first 72 hours after OLT. The only independent risk factor for AKI was calculated MELD and when the components of the MELD score were analyzed, INR had a much stronger impact in predicting AKI then serum creatinine. Overall mortality rate was 32,5% and anesthesia duration was the only variable associated with higher mortality rate.

Conclusions

Although MELD score seems to have a good performance in predicting AKI after OLT, serum creatinine had no impact on its prediction despite its importance on MELD calculation. Modifying the MELD score, which could include novel AKI biomarkers, may improve its prognostic accuracy and provide a better tool for public health planning.

Nutritional management contributes to improvement in minimal hepatic encephalopathy and quality of life in patients with liver cirrhosis: A preliminary, prospective, open-label study

AIM

Problems in patients with minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) include episodes such as falls and deficient driving skills, without any recognition of neurophysiological dysfunction. Patients with MHE are also more likely to develop overt hepatic encephalopathy. However, there is not yet any interventional strategy for MHE involving nutritional management. We conducted a preliminary study to investigate the proportion of positive MHE and the effects of nutritional management on MHE.

METHODS

Patients with viral liver cirrhosis and abnormal neuropsychological tests were included. Nutritional consultations were conducted periodically by a dietitian, who recommended 30-35 kcal with 1.0-1.5 g of protein/kg of ideal bodyweight/day. The primary end-point was to evaluate the proportion of patients who recovered from MHE. The secondary end-point was to evaluate the improvement in the patients' quality of life (QOL).

RESULTS

Thirty-two (30.1%) of 106 patients were diagnosed with MHE. Nineteen patients were enrolled in the study. Eleven of 19 patients became non-MHE after 4 weeks, and 13 of 19 patients (68.4%, P < 0.001) after 8 weeks. The mental summary scores were significantly improved at 8 weeks (P = 0.0413). Changes in albumin levels from week 0 to week 8 were 0.15 ± 0.16 g/dL in the improved MHE group and -0.28 ± 0.33 g/dL in the non-improved MHE group, which differ significantly (P = 0.0130).

CONCLUSION

Periodical nutritional management improved MHE and QOL. Improving the patient's nutritional condition may be one approach to treating MHE.

A decade of model for end-stage liver disease: lessons learned and need for re-evaluation of allocation policies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) driven liver allocation system has been in place for 10 years now. Understanding what the driving forces were, what principles were developed and employed, and assessing how these have stood the test of time will help future policy makers further refine the system.

RECENT FINDINGS

Prior to development of the MELD system, policymakers had limited data and organ allocation policy development was rarely systematic or evidence-based and was not necessarily centered on the patient. The MELD process focused on patient-specific variables and validation of the risk prediction models to be sure the system would function reasonably well across the spectrum of potential candidates and that it did not impose artificial categorizations of patients. In addition, the transplant community focused on assessing the effects of this policy change which was also something new.

SUMMARY

Numerous publications since have reported outcomes for MELD-based liver allocation here in the United States and in many other areas around the world. Some of these reports have suggested changes to the MELD equation or other ways to adapt the system to more accurately reflect the need for transplant. The transparency that this type of system brings allows for much more rigorous assessment of results and for highlighting areas for improvement toward a more fair, equitable, and utilitarian system.

Serum sodium based modification of the MELD does not improve prediction of outcome in acute liver failure

Background

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a devastating clinical syndrome with a high mortality rate. The MELD score has been implied as a prognostic tool in ALF. Hyponatremia is associated with lethal outcome in ALF. Inclusion of serum sodium (Na) into the MELD score was found to improve its predictive value in cirrhotic patients. Therefore the aim of this study was to determine whether inclusion of serum Na improves the predictive value of MELD in ALF compared to established criteria.

Methods

In a prospective single center study (11/2006–12/2010), we recruited 108 consecutive ALF patients (64% females / 36% males), who met the criteria defined by the “Acute Liver Failure Study Group Germany”. Upon admission, clinical and laboratory data were collected, King’s College Criteria (KCC), Model of End Stage Liver Disease score (MELD), and serum sodium based modifications like the MELD-Na score and the United Kingdom Model of End Stage Liver Disease score (UKELD) were calculated and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed regarding the prediction of spontaneous recovery (SR) or non-spontaneous recovery (NSR; death or transplantation).

Results

Serum bilirubin was of no prognostic value in ALF, and Na also failed to predict NSR in ALF. The classical MELD score was superior to sodium-based modifications and KCC.

Conclusions

We validated the prognostic value of MELD-Na and UKELD in ALF. Classic MELD score calculations performed superior to KCC in the prediction of NSR. Serum Na and Na-based modifications of MELD did not further improve its prognostic value.

Hepatic dysfunction in ambulatory patients with heart failure: application of the MELD scoring system for outcome prediction

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and its modified versions, which are established measures of liver dysfunction, as a tool to assess heart transplantation (HTx) urgency in ambulatory patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND

Liver abnormalities have a prognostic impact on the outcome of patients with advanced heart failure.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 343 patients undergoing HTx evaluation between 2005 and 2009. The prognostic effectiveness of MELD and 2 modifications (MELDNa [includes serum sodium levels] and MELD-XI [does not include international normalized ratio]) for endpoint events, defined as death/HTx/ventricular assist device requirement, was evaluated in our cohort and in subgroups of patients on and off oral anticoagulation.

RESULTS

The MELD and MELDNa scores were excellent predictors for 1-year endpoint events (areas under the curve: 0.71 and 0.73, respectively). High scores (>12) were strongly associated with poor survival at 1 year (MELD 69.3% vs. 90.4% [p < 0.0001]; MELDNa 70.4% vs. 96.9% [p < 0.0001]). Increased scores were associated with increased risk for HTx (hazard ratio: 1.10 [95% confidence interval: 1.06 to 1.14]; p < 0.0001 for both scores), which was independent of other known risk factors (MELD p = 0.0055; MELDNa p = 0.0083). Anticoagulant use was associated with poor survival at 1 year (73.7% vs. 86.4%; p = 0.0118), and the statistical significance of MELD/MELDNa was higher in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation therapy. MELD-XI was a fair but limited predictor of the endpoint events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of liver dysfunction according to the MELD scoring system provides additional risk information in ambulatory patients with heart failure.

Clinical outcomes after bedside and interventional radiology paracentesis procedures

BACKGROUND

Increasingly, paracentesis procedures are performed in interventional radiology (IR) rather than at the bedside. No guidelines exist to aid decision-making about the best location, and patient outcomes are unknown. Our aims were to develop a prediction model for which location (bedside vs IR) clinicians select for inpatient paracentesis procedures, and to compare clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We performed an observational medical records review of all paracentesis procedures performed on the hepatology service of an 894-bed urban tertiary care hospital from July 2008 through December 2011. We developed a prediction model to determine factors for IR referral. Clinical outcomes including blood product transfusions, intensive care unit (ICU) transfer, hospital length of stay, inpatient mortality, 30-day readmission, and emergency department visit within 30 days of discharge were compared between patients who had bedside versus IR procedures.

RESULTS

Five hundred two patients who underwent a paracentesis were included in the analysis. Being female, higher body mass index, lower volume of ascites removed, and attending physician of record predicted the probability of IR referral. IR referrals were associated with 1.86 additional hospital days (P=.003). Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusions were more common in patients who underwent IR procedures (odds ratio [OR] 4.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.13-9.78 and OR 4.07; 95% CI, 2.03-8.18, respectively). Subsequent ICU transfers also were more common among patients who had IR procedures (OR 2.21; 95% CI, 1.13-4.31). All other clinical outcomes were similar between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to perform a paracentesis procedure at the bedside or in IR is largely discretionary. Paracentesis procedures performed at the bedside result in equal or better patient outcomes. Clinicians should receive the training needed to perform paracentesis procedures safely at the bedside. Large prospective studies are needed to confirm the findings of this study and inform national practice patterns.

A model to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure using artificial neural network

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring was initiated using traditional statistical technique by assuming a linear relationship between clinical features, but most phenomena in a clinical situation are not linearly related. The aim of this study was to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on an individual patient level using an artificial neural network (ANN) system. The ANN model was built using data from 402 consecutive patients with ACHBLF. It was trained to predict 3-month mortality by the data of 280 patients and validated by the remaining 122 patients. The area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated for ANN and MELD-based scoring systems. The following variables age (P < 0.001), prothrombin activity (P < 0.001), serum sodium (P < 0.001), total bilirubin (P = 0.015), hepatitis B e antigen positivity rate (P < 0.001) and haemoglobin (P < 0.001) were significantly related to the prognosis of ACHBLF and were selected to build the ANN. The ANN performed significantly better than MELD-based scoring systems both in the training cohort (AUROC = 0.869 vs 0.667, 0.591, 0.643, 0.571 and 0.577; P < 0.001, respectively) and in the validation cohort (AUROC = 0.765 vs 0.599, 0.563, 0.601, 0.521 and 0.540; P ≤ 0.006, respectively). Thus, the ANN model was shown to be more accurate in predicting 3-month mortality of ACHBLF than MELD-based scoring systems.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, initially developed to predict survival following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was subsequently found to be accurate predictor of mortality amongst patents with end-stage liver disease. Since 2002, MELD score using 3 objective variables (serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and institutional normalized ratio) has been used worldwide for listing and transplanting patients with end-stage liver disease allowing transplanting sicker patients first irrespective of the wait time on the list. MELD score has also been shown to be accurate predictor of survival amongst patients with alcoholic hepatitis, following variceal hemorrhage, infections in cirrhosis, after surgery in patients with cirrhosis including liver resection, trauma, and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). Although, MELD score is closest to the ideal score, there are some limitations including its inaccuracy in predicting survival in 15-20% cases. Over the last decade, many efforts have been made to further improve and refine MELD score. Until, a better score is developed, liver allocation would continue based on the currently used MELD score.

Clinical applications of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in hepatic medicine

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score incorporates serum bilirubin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio (INR) into a formula that provides a continuous variable that is a very accurate predictor of 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. It is currently utilized in the United States to prioritize deceased donor organ allocation for patients listed for liver transplantation. The MELD score is superior to other prognostic models in patients with end-stage liver disease, such as the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, since it uses only objective criteria, and its implementation in 2002 led to a sharp reduction in the number of people waiting for liver transplant and reduced mortality on the waiting list without affecting posttransplant survival. Although mainly adopted for use in patients waiting for liver transplant, the MELD score has also proved to be an effective predictor of outcome in other situations, such as patients with cirrhosis going for surgery and patients with fulminant hepatic failure or alcoholic hepatitis. Several variations of the original MELD score, involving the addition of serum sodium or looking at the change in MELD over time, have been examined, and these may slightly improve its accuracy. The MELD score does have limitations in situations where the INR or creatinine may be elevated due to reasons other than liver disease, and its implementation for organ allocation purposes does not take into consideration several conditions that benefit from liver transplantation. The application of the MELD score in prioritizing patients for liver transplantation has been successful, but further studies and legislation are required to ensure a fair and equitable system.

Risk factors and a predictive model for acute hepatic failure after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Acute hepatic failure (AHF) is one of the most serious complications of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). The aims of this study were to investigate risk factors of AHF after TACE and to establish a predictive model for AHF.

METHODS

In the evaluation set, a total of 820 patients who underwent TACE as a first treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma were included. The demographic, laboratory, radiological and treatment-related factors were analysed to identify risk factors for AHF after TACE and a predictive model was established using the identified risk factors. In the validation set, a different cohort of 438 patients was included to validate the predictive model.

RESULTS

The incidence of post-TACE AHF was 15.1% (124/820). Multivariate analysis revealed that presence of portal vein thrombosis, high aspartate aminotransferase, bilirubin, and log alpha-foetoprotein levels, and low albumin and sodium levels were independent risk factors. A mathematical model was established using these independent risk factors, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.773 (95% confidence interval, 0.726-0.820). The cut-off value of 9 had a sensitivity of 78.2%, a specificity of 72.3%, a positive likelihood ratio of 2.82, a negative likelihood ratio of 0.30, a positive predictive value of 28.9% and a negative predictive value of 95.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors of post-TACE AHF were presence of portal vein thrombosis, high aspartate aminotransferase, bilirubin, and alpha-foetoprotein levels, and low serum albumin and sodium levels. A mathematical model to predict post-TACE AHF was established.

Revision of MELD to include serum albumin improves prediction of mortality on the liver transplant waiting list

Background

Allocation of donor livers for transplantation in most regions is based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) or MELD-sodium (MELDNa). Our objective was to assess revisions to MELD and MELDNa that include serum albumin for predicting waiting list mortality.

Methods

Adults registered for liver transplantation in the United States (2002–2007) were identified from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. Cox regression was used to determine the association between serum albumin and 3-month mortality, and to derive revised MELD and MELDNa scores incorporating albumin (‘MELD-albumin’ and ‘5-variable MELD [5vMELD]’).

Results

Among 40,393 patients, 9% died and 24% underwent transplantation within 3 months of listing. For serum albumin concentrations between 1.0 and 4.0 g/dL, a linear, inverse relationship was observed between albumin and 3-month mortality (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 g/dL reduction in albumin: 1.44; 95% CI 1.35–1.54). The c-statistics for 3-month mortality of MELD-albumin and MELD were 0.913 and 0.896, respectively (P<0.001); 5vMELD was superior to MELDNa (c-statistics 0.922 vs. 0.912, P<0.001). The potential benefit of 5vMELD was greatest in patients with low MELD (<15). Among low MELD patients who died, 27% would have gained ≥10 points with 5vMELD over MELD versus only 4–7% among low MELD survivors and high MELD (≥15) candidates (P<0.0005).

Conclusion

Modification of MELD and MELDNa to include serum albumin is associated with improved prediction of waiting list mortality. If validated and shown to be associated with reduced mortality, adoption of 5vMELD as the basis for liver allograft allocation may improve outcomes on the liver transplant waiting list.

Mild hyponatremia is associated with an increased risk of death in an ambulatory setting

Hyponatremia is a common disorder associated with higher mortality in hospitalized patients, but its impact in an ambulatory setting remains unclear. Here we used data from the Dallas Heart Study, a prospective multiethnic cohort study that included ambulatory individuals, to determine the prevalence and determinants of hyponatremia (serum sodium <135 mEq/l), and its impact on mortality. The analysis included 3551 individuals with a median age of 43 years followed up over a median of 8.4 years. The sample weight-adjusted prevalence of hyponatremia was 6.9%. Hyponatremia was mild (median serum sodium: 133 mEq/l), and was significantly associated with age, black ethnicity, presence of cirrhosis or congestive heart failure, and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. By the end of the follow-up period, there were 202 deaths including 29 in hyponatremic individuals. The unadjusted hazard ratio for hyponatremia and death was 1.94. Hyponatremia remained significantly associated with mortality after adjustment for age, gender, ethnicity, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol use, renal function, plasma C-reactive protein, use of antiepileptic drugs and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and history of congestive heart failure, cirrhosis, and cancer (hazard ratio of 1.75). Thus, mild hyponatremia is associated with an increased risk of death in a young and ethnically diverse community population.

How to assess liver function?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The liver comprises a multitude of parenchymal and nonparenchymal cells with diverse metabolic, hemodynamic and immune functions. Available monitoring options consist of 'static' laboratory parameters, quantitative tests of liver function based on clearance, elimination or metabolite formation and scores, most notably the 'model for end-stage liver disease'. This review aims at balancing conventional markers against 'dynamic' tests in the critically ill.

RECENT FINDINGS

There is emerging evidence that conventional laboratory markers, most notably bilirubin, and the composite model for end-stage liver disease are superior to assess cirrhosis and their acute decompensation, while dynamic tests provide information in the absence of preexisting liver disease. Bilirubin and plasma disappearance rate of indocyanine green reflecting static and dynamic indicators of excretory dysfunction prognosticate unfavorable outcome, both, in the absence and presence of chronic liver disease better than other functions or indicators of injury. Although dye excretion is superior to conventional static parameters in the critically ill, it still underestimates impaired canalicular transport, an increasingly recognized facet of excretory dysfunction.

SUMMARY

Progress has been made in the last year to weigh static and dynamic tests to monitor parenchymal liver functions, whereas biomarkers to assess nonparenchymal functions remain largely obscure.

Prognostic capability of different liver disease scoring systems for prediction of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation

PURPOSE

To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-institution retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation.

Hyponatremia and mortality: moving beyond associations

Acute hyponatremia can cause death if cerebral edema is not treated promptly. Conversely, if chronic hyponatremia is corrected too rapidly, osmotic demyelination may ensue, which also potentially is lethal. However, these severe complications of hyponatremia are relatively uncommon and often preventable. More commonly, hyponatremia predicts mortality in patients with advanced heart failure or liver cirrhosis. In these conditions, it generally is assumed that hyponatremia reflects the severity of the underlying disease rather than contributing directly to mortality. The same assumption holds for the recently reported associations between hyponatremia and mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism, pulmonary hypertension, pneumonia, and myocardial infarction. However, recent data suggest that chronic and mild hyponatremia in the general population also are associated with mortality. In addition, hyponatremia has been associated with mortality in long-term hemodialysis patients without residual function in whom the underlying disease cannot be responsible for hyponatremia. These new data raise the question of whether hyponatremia by itself can contribute to mortality or it remains a surrogate marker for other unknown risk factors. We review hyponatremia and mortality and explore the possibility that hyponatremia perturbs normal physiology in the absence of cerebral edema or osmotic demyelination.

Hyponatremia-associated healthcare burden among US patients hospitalized for cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Hyponatremia is a frequent comorbid condition of patients hospitalized for cirrhosis and a predictor of disease severity and mortality. This study evaluated the healthcare burden of hyponatremia among patients hospitalized for cirrhosis in the real world.

METHODS

Hyponatremic (HN) patients (>-18 years of age) with cirrhosis were identified using the Premier Hospital Database (January 1, 2007 to March 31, 2010) and matched to non-HN patients with cirrhosis using a combination of exact patient characteristics and propensity score matching. Univariate and multivariate statistics were utilized to compare hospital resource utilization, cost, and 30-day hospital re-admission among patient cohorts.

RESULTS

The study population included 21,864 subjects (HN 10,932; non-HN 10,932). The hospital length of stay (LOS) (7.63 ± 7.4 vs. 5.89 ± 6.2 days; P < 0.001), hospital cost ($13,842 ± $20,702 vs. $11,140 ± $20,562; P < 0.001), intensive care unit (ICU) LOS (4.58 ± 4.7 vs. 3.59 ± 4.4 days; P < 0.001), and ICU cost ($7,038 ± $7,781 vs. $5,360 ± $7,557; P < 0.001) were greater for the HN cohort, as was the 30-day re-admission rate (all cause: 31.1% vs. 24.8%; P < 0.001; hyponatremia related: 25.1% vs. 11.0%; P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that hyponatremia was associated with a 29.5% increase in hospital LOS, a 26.6% increase in overall hospital cost, a 23.2% increase in S. ICU LOS, and a 28.6% increase in ICU cost. Additionally, hyponatremia was associated with an increased risk of 30-day hospital re-admission (all cause: odds ratio [OR] 1.37; confidence interval [CI] 1.28-1.46; P < 0.001; hyponatremia related: OR 2.68; CI 2.48-2.90; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Hyponatremia in patients with cirrhosis is a predictor of increased hospital resource use and 30-day hospital re-admission, and represents a potential target for intervention to reduce healthcare expenditures for patients hospitalized for cirrhosis.

Factors related to quality of life in patients with cirrhosis and ascites: relevance of serum sodium concentration and leg edema

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hyponatremia is common in patients with cirrhosis and ascites and is associated with significant neurological disturbances. However, its potential effect on health-related quality of life (HRQL) in cirrhosis has not been investigated. We aimed at assessing the relationship between serum sodium concentration and other clinical and analytical parameters on HRQL in cirrhosis with ascites.

METHODS

A total of 523 patients with cirrhosis and ascites were prospectively investigated. Assessment of HRQL was done with the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36) questionnaire, which is divided into 8 domains, summarized in two components: physical component score (PCS) and mental component score (MCS). Demographic, clinical, and analytical data at baseline were analyzed for their relationship with HRQL.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, independent predictive factors associated with an impaired PCS were non-alcoholic etiology of cirrhosis, severe ascites, history of previous episodes of hepatic encephalopathy and falls, presence of leg edema, and low serum sodium concentration. With respect to MCS, only two factors were associated with the independent predictive value: low serum sodium concentration and treatment with lactulose or lactitol. In both components, the scores decreased in parallel with the reduction in serum sodium concentration. Variables more commonly associated with the independent predictive value in the individual 8 domains of PCS and MCS were presence of leg edema and serum sodium concentration, 7 and 6 domains, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum sodium concentration and presence of leg edema are major factors of the impaired HRQL in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

Kidney, pancreas and liver allocation and distribution in the United States

Kidney transplant and liver transplant are the treatments of choice for patients with end-stage renal disease and end-stage liver disease, respectively. Pancreas transplant is most commonly performed along with kidney transplant in diabetic end-stage renal disease patients. Despite a steady increase in the numbers of kidney and liver transplants performed each year in the United States, a significant shortage of kidneys and livers available for transplant remains. Organ allocation is the process the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) uses to determine which candidates are offered which deceased donor organs. OPTN is charged with ensuring the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of organ sharing in the national system of organ allocation. The policy has changed incrementally over time in efforts to optimize allocation to meet these often competing goals. This review describes the history, current status and future direction of policies regarding the allocation of abdominal organs for transplant, namely the kidney, liver and pancreas, in the United States.

Living organ donation practices in Europe - results from an online survey

In Europe, living organ donation (LOD) is increasingly accepted as a valuable solution to overcome the organ shortage. However, considerable differences exist between European countries regarding frequency, practices and acceptance of donor-recipient relations. As a response, the Coordination Action project 'Living Organ Donation in Europe' (www.eulod.eu), funded by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission, was initiated. Transplant professionals from 331 European kidney and liver transplant centres were invited to complete an online survey on living kidney donation (LKD) and living liver donation (LLD). In total, 113 kidney transplant centres from 40 countries and 39 liver transplant centres from 24 countries responded. 96.5% and 71.8% performed LKD and LLD respectively. The content of the medical screening of donors was similar, but criteria for donor acceptance varied. Few absolute contraindications for donation existed. The reimbursement policies diverged and the majority of the donors did not get reimbursed for their income loss during recovery. Large discrepancies were found between geographical European regions (the Eastern, the Mediterranean and the North-Western). As a result of this survey we suggest several recommendations to improve quality and safety of LOD in Europe.

Model for end-stage liver disease-sodium and survival benefit in liver transplantation

There are currently no studies calculating the survival benefit of liver transplantation (LT) according to model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) and based on the competing risk (CR) method. We enrolled consecutive adult patients with chronic end-stage liver disease entering the waiting list (WL) for primary LT (WL group = 337) and undergoing LT (LT group = 220) in the period 2006-2009. Two independent multivariable regressions (WL and LT models) were created to measure the prognostic power of MELD-Na with respect to MELD. For the WL model, both Cox and CR multivariable analyses were performed. Estimates were finally included in a Markov model to calculate 3-year survival benefit. WL Cox model: MELD-Na (P < 0.0001) and MELD (P < 0.0001) significantly predicted survival. WL CR model: MELD-Na (P = 0.0045) and MELD (P = 0.0109) significantly predicted survival. LT Cox model: MELD-Na (P = 0.7608) and MELD score (P = 0.9413) had not correlation with survival. Benefit model: MELD and MELD-Na had an overlapping significant impact on 3-year survival benefit; CR method determined a significant decrease in 3-year life expectancy (LE) estimations. MELD-Na and MELD scores similarly predicted 3-year LT survival benefit, but the gain in LE is significantly lower when a CR method is adopted.

Exception point applications for 15 points: an unintended consequence of the share 15 policy

In 2005, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) adopted the Share 15 policy to improve organ allocation by facilitating transplantation for local and regional patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores of 15 or higher. There has been concern that the lack of standardization in the use of exception points is potentially diminishing the benefits of this policy. We reviewed all applications for 15 exception points submitted through UNOS from January 1, 2005 through March 14, 2011 (notably, there were only 5 applications for 15 MELD exception points submitted before the initiation of the Share 15 policy). Four hundred fifty-two applications were submitted for 301 patients. There was significant regional variability, with regions 3 and 10 submitting 72.1% of all applications. More than one-quarter of the applications (32.7%) specifically requested exception points to make a patient eligible for a local, regional, or higher risk organ. All applications were accepted for 74.1% of the patients, and 72.2% of these patients ultimately underwent transplantation; however, when all applications were denied, only 54.0% underwent transplantation (P = 0.006). Overall, 197 applicants (65.4%) underwent transplantation with a deceased donor organ, and 80.2% of these patients had a native MELD score at transplantation less than 15. In conclusion, these analyses demonstrate several important changes in practice that have occurred as a result of the implementation of the Share 15 policy. Since 2005, there has been a marked increase in the number of applications for 15 exception points, with significant regional variability in their use and a lack of standardization in their approval.

Plasma sodium level is associated with bone loss severity in women with anorexia nervosa: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Anorexia nervosa is a psychiatric disorder characterized by restrictive eating, low body weight, and severe bone loss. Recent data show a deleterious relationship between low circulating sodium levels and bone mass, and relative or absolute hyponatremia is a known complication of anorexia nervosa. Clinical studies of other medical conditions associated with hyponatremia suggest that detrimental effects of low sodium levels on health are seen even within the normal range. We hypothesized that women with anorexia nervosa and relatively low plasma sodium levels would have lower bone mineral density (BMD) than those with higher plasma sodium levels.

METHOD

In a cross-sectional study (January 1, 1997-December 31, 2009) of 404 women aged 17 to 54 years (mean ± standard error of the mean [SEM] age = 25.6 ± 0.3 years) who met DSM-IV criteria for anorexia nervosa, we measured BMD using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Bone mineral density was compared in women with plasma sodium levels < 140 mmol/L (midpoint of normal range) versus those with plasma sodium levels ≥ 140 mmol/L and in women with hyponatremia (plasma sodium < 135 mmol/L) versus those without. The study was conducted at the Neuroendocrine Unit of Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.

RESULTS

Women with plasma sodium levels < 140 mmol/L had significantly lower BMD and t and z scores versus those with plasma sodium levels ≥ 140 mmol/L at the anterior-posterior (AP) spine (mean ± SEM z scores = -1.6 ± 0.1 vs -1.3 ± 0.1, P = .004) and total hip (mean ± SEM z scores = -1.2 ± 0.1 vs -0.9 ± 0.1, P = .029). In a model controlling for age, BMI, psychiatric drug use, and disease duration, differences in BMD and t and z scores remained significant at the AP spine. Women with hyponatremia had significantly lower BMD and t and z scores versus those without hyponatremia at the AP spine (mean ± SEM z scores = -2.2 ± 0.3 vs -1.3 ± 0.1, P = .009), lateral spine (mean ± SEM z scores = -2.4 ± 0.4 vs -1.5 ± 0.1, P = .031), and total hip (mean ± SEM z scores = -2.5 ± 0.5 vs -1.0 ± 0.1, P < .0001). In a model controlling for age, BMI, psychiatric drug use, and disease duration, differences in BMD and z and t scores remained significant at all sites.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that relative plasma sodium deficiency may contribute to anorexia nervosa-related osteopenia.

Severe muscle depletion in patients on the liver transplant wait list: its prevalence and independent prognostic value

As detected by cross-sectional imaging, severe muscle depletion, which is termed sarcopenia, holds promise for prognostication in patients with cirrhosis. Our aims were to describe the prevalence and predictors of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis listed for liver transplantation (LT) and to determine its independent prognostic significance for the prediction of waiting-list mortality. Adults listed for LT who underwent abdominal computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging within 6 weeks of activation were retrospectively identified. The exclusions were hepatocellular carcinoma, acute liver failure, prior LT, and listing for multivisceral transplantation or living related LT. Sixty percent of the 142 eligible patients were male, the median age was 53 years, and the median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at listing was 15. Forty-one percent were sarcopenic; sarcopenia was more prevalent in males versus females (54% versus 21%, P < 0.001) and increased with the Child-Pugh class (10% for class A, 34% for class B, and 54% for class C, P = 0.007). Male sex, the dry-weight body mass index (BMI), and Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis (but not the MELD score) were independent predictors of sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 2.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.23-4.53) after adjustments for age and MELD scores. In conclusion, sarcopenia is associated with increased waiting-list mortality and is poorly predicted by subjective nutritional assessment tools such as BMI and subjective global assessment. If this is validated in larger studies, the objective assessment of sarcopenia holds promise for prognostication in this patient population.

Defining the severity of liver dysfunction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma by the model for end-stage liver disease-derived systems

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and serum sodium (Na) are important markers for liver functional reserve in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aimed to determine the best model to define the severity of liver dysfunction in terms of outcome prediction among the 4 currently used systems (MELD, MELDNa, MELD-Na and ReFit MELDNa).

METHODS

A total of 2308 prospectively enrolled patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were analysed. The prognostic ability was compared by the Akaike information criterion.

RESULTS

MELDNa had the best prognostic accuracy overall, and for patients receiving curative and non-curative treatments, followed by MELD-Na, MELD and ReFit MELDNa. When patients were categorized into <8, 8-12, 12-16, 16-20 and >20, the adjusted risk ratios for MELDNa were 1.065 (p=0.46), 0.996 (p=0.973), 1.38 (p=0.048) and 1.563 (p=0.003) for the scores of 8-12, 12-16, 16-20 and >20, respectively, compared to the group with scores <8. The adjusted risk ratio for MELDNa was 1.014 (95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.027; p=0.034) per unit score increment in the Cox model.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELDNa is the best marker to define the severity of liver dysfunction in hepatocellular carcinoma patients independent of treatment strategy. The ReFit MELDNa does not enhance the predictive accuracy of the MELD.

Liver function assessment: Application and improvement in clinical practice

Preoperative liver function assessment is very important for surgical planning and prognosis. A comprehensive scoring system incorporates various parameters which reflect a certain aspect of liver function such as synthesis and secretion, as well as impact of related organs. Currently, various metabolic liver function tests differ in their ability to reflect liver function. Combination of the scoring system with metabolic tests can better assess liver function and prognosis. However, these assessments only account for overall liver function. Liver volume assessment allows obtaining every segment volume without function, especially in case of cirrhosis. Imaging technique based on asialoglycoprotein receptor (ASGPR) reflects liver function in three dimensions and is now considered a promising liver function assessment. When combined with computer technology, it allows surgeons to perform resection simulation and evaluate surgical risk and prognosis preoperatively.

The clinical course of alcoholic cirrhosis: effects of hepatic metabolic capacity, alcohol consumption, and hyponatremia--a historical cohort study

Background

The cirrhosis complications hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and variceal bleeding increase mortality but develop in random sequence. Therefore prognoses based on the presence or absence of these clinical complications are inherently inaccurate, and other determinants of the clinical course should be identified. Here we present our study of patho-etiological factors that may be causally involved in the development of specific complications to alcoholic cirrhosis; it was based on a model of cirrhosis pathophysiology encompassing hepatic metabolic capacity, continued alcohol consumption, and circulatory dysfunction.

Methods

We followed a Danish community-based cohort of 466 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Stratified Cox regression was used to examine the effects of GEC (a measure of hepatic metabolic capacity), alcohol consumption, and plasma sodium concentration (a measure of circulatory dysfunction) on the hazard rates of first-time hepatic encephalopathy, first-time ascites, first-time variceal bleeding, and mortality. We adjusted for confounding by comorbidity, gender, and age. Data on risk factors and confounders were updated during follow-up.

Results

A low GEC increased the risk of first-time hepatic encephalopathy (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21 per 0.1 mmol/min GEC loss, 95% CI 1.11-1.31), but was unassociated with other adverse events. Alcohol consumption increased the risk of first-time ascites (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.19-8.47), first-time variceal bleeding (HR 2.78, 95% CI 1.59-4.87), and mortality (HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.63-3.66), but not the risk of first-time hepatic encephalopathy. Hyponatremia increased the risk of all adverse events.

Conclusions

Reduced hepatic metabolic capacity, alcohol consumption, and hyponatremia were causally involved in the development of specific complications to alcoholic cirrhosis.

Cystatin C is a strong predictor of survival in patients with cirrhosis: is a cystatin C-based MELD better?

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model of end stage liver disease (MELD) includes serum creatinine, which is a poor surrogate marker of renal function in patients with cirrhosis. Especially in women and patients with advanced disease creatinine underestimates true renal function. Our objective was to assess whether or not the substitution of creatinine by cystatin C improves the prognostic performance of the model.

METHODS

The association between MELD parameters and cystatin C with survival was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards model. A cystatin C-based MELD score was calculated from the results and compared with creatinine-based MELD in terms of discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Four hundred and twenty-nine patients were included in the study; 19% died and 12% underwent liver transplantation during a median follow-up of 602 days. In multivariate Cox regression, cystatin C was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality with a hazard ratio of 8.0 (95% CI: 2.2-29.6). The median cystatin C-based MELD was 15, the median creatinine-based MELD was 12. Calibration and discrimination for 3 month and 1 year mortality was similar between the scores (AUC > 0.85 for both scores). Gender differences in cystatin C-based MELD were less pronounced than those in the creatinine-based model, because creatinine but not cystatin C was affected by gender.

CONCLUSION

Substitution of creatinine by cystatin C does not improve the predictive power of MELD.

Adult liver transplantation in the United States

Orthotopic liver transplantation is the only definitive treatment option for patients dying of liver failure. Since its inception, the technique of liver transplantation and the management of the recipients have evolved considerably. The authors present here an up-to-date overview of the evolution of adult liver transplantation, the evaluation of the recipient and the process of listing and timing of transplantation. The authors conclude with a summary of long-term complications that should be considered when caring for the posttransplant patient. The growing population of patients with liver disease means that more transplants will be performed. Because these patients now live longer lives, it is crucial that clinicians have a basic understanding of the process and outcomes.

Liver transplantation in adults: Choosing the appropriate timing

Liver transplantation is indicated in patients with acute liver failure, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and rare liver-based genetic defects that trigger damage of other organs. Early referral to a transplant center is crucial in acute liver failure due to the high mortality with medical therapy and its unpredictable evolution. Referral to a transplant center should be considered when at least one complication of cirrhosis occurs during its natural history. However, because of the shortage of organ donors and the short-term mortality after liver transplantation on one hand and the possibility of managing the complications of cirrhosis with other treatments on the other, patients are carefully selected by the transplant center to ensure that transplantation is indicated and that there are no medical, surgical and psychological contraindications. Patients approved for transplantation are placed on the transplant waiting list and prioritized according to disease severity. Thus, the appropriate timing of transplantation depends on recipient disease severity and, although this is still a matter of debate, also on donor quality. These two variables are known to determine the “transplant benefit” (i.e., when the expected patient survival is better with, than without, transplantation) and should guide donor allocation.

Low testosterone levels as an independent predictor of mortality in men with chronic liver disease

OBJECTIVE

To examine the prevalence and prognostic implications of low serum testosterone levels in men with chronic liver disease.

DESIGN

We conducted an observational study at a tertiary referral centre.

PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Baseline serum testosterone was measured in 171 men presenting to the Victorian Liver Transplant Unit for liver transplant evaluation. Patients were followed up to liver transplant or death.

RESULTS

Sixty-one per cent of men had a low total testosterone level (TT, <10 nm), and 90% of men had a low calculated free testosterone level (cFT, <230 pm). During the available observation time (median 8 months, interquartile range 4-14 months), 56 men (33%) died and 63 (37%) received a liver transplant. Fifty-two (30%) survived without a transplant. Median time to death was 8 months (range 2-13) and to liver transplant was 8 months (4-14). Baseline low TT and cFT levels both (P < 0·0001) predicted mortality. Moreover, in a Cox proportional hazard model, both low total (P = 0·02) and free testosterone (P = 0·007) levels remained predictive of death independently of established prognostic factors, such as the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and serum sodium levels. A decrease in TT by 1 nm and in cFT by 10 pm was associated with an 8% increase in mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Low testosterone levels are common in men with severe liver disease and predict mortality independent of MELD, the standard score used to prioritize the allocation of liver transplants.

Improvement in the prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit, a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To examine how the outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to an ICU have changed over time.

METHODS

A retrospective study in a medical ICU during two separate 3-year periods [period 1 (P1): 1995-1998 and period 2 (P2): 2005-2008].

RESULTS

A total of 56 cirrhotic patients were admitted during P1 and 138 during P2, accounting for 2.3 and 4.5% of the total ICU admissions (P<0.01). Patients' characteristics were markedly different between the two periods: previous functional status improved (Knaus scale, A/B/C/D: P1 - 7.1%/53.6%/35.7%/3.6% vs. P2 - 28.2%/47.8%/22.5%/1.5%, P<0.01), the number of comorbidities decreased (Charlson: 1.79±2.22 vs. 1.02±1.40, P=0.02), the severity of cirrhosis increased [Child-Pugh: 8 (7-13) vs. 11 (8-13), P=0.04; Model for End-Stage Liver Disease: 16 (12-28) vs. 22 (15-31), P=0.02], and acute organ dysfunctions increased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment: 7.3±5.6 vs. 11.3±5.5, P<0.01). The crude in-ICU mortality was similar during the two periods (39.3 vs. 41.3%, P=0.92). However, after adjustment for severity, in-ICU mortality was markedly decreased during P2 (odds ratio: 0.36 [0.15; 0.88], P=0.02).

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU have an improved outcome despite increased severity of liver disease. This improvement is associated with a higher selection according to their previous functional status and comorbidities.

Severe hyponatremia is a better predictor of mortality than MELDNa in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The MELDNa score was developed to improve the prognostic value of the MELD score in cirrhosis and was built for serum sodium concentrations numerically capped between 125 and 140 mmol/L. This model is not validated in a well-defined population of patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites in whom severe hyponatremia (≤ 125 mmol/L) is frequent. This study assessed the prognostic value of severe hyponatremia and the MELDNa score in these patients.

METHODS

A consecutive, single-centre, observational, prospective study was performed in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites defined according to the International Ascites Club criteria. The prevalence of low serum sodium was assessed in this population. Predictive factors of mortality were analyzed and compared.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-four patients were included. Sixty-six (37.9%) had low serum sodium (< 130 mmol/L). Sixty-one (35.1%) had diuretic-intractable ascites due to severe hyponatremia (≤ 125 mmol/L). The median MELDNa score was 23 (10-33). The 1-year cumulative incidence of death was 55% (95% CI: 55-56%). The best predictive factors of mortality were the following: severe hyponatremia (≤ 125 mmol/L) as an underlying cause of refractory ascites, a higher Child-Pugh score, beta-blocker therapy, and a high frequency of large-volume paracentesis. The Child-Pugh score had a higher area under receiver operating curve to predict mortality than MELDNa.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites, severe hyponatremia and Child-Pugh score are better predictors of mortality than MELDNa.

Which score system can best predict recipient outcomes after living donor liver transplantation?

INTRODUCTION

Many scoring systems have been suggested to predict the outcomes of deceased donor liver transplantations. The aims of this study were to compare the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score with respect to other scores among patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) seeking to evaluate the best system to correlate with postoperative outcomes after LDLT.

METHODS

We analyzed retrospectively data from 202 adult patients who underwent LDLT from January 2008 to July 2010. We calculated preoperative MELD, MELD-sodium, MELD to serum sodium ratio (MESO), integrated MELD, United Kingdom MELD, Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health evaluation II (APACHE II), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores in all patients. We analyzed the correlation of each score with postoperative laboratory results, as well as survival at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after LDLT.

RESULTS

There was significant positive correlation between all scores and peak total bilirubin during the first 7 days after LDLT. The MELD score showed the greatest correlation with peak total bilirubin (r=0.745). APACHE II and SOFA scores at 6 months and 1 year after LDLT and MESO score at 1 year after LDLT showed acceptable discrimination performance {area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC)>0.7, while other scoring systems showed poor discrimination. However, the AUCs of each score were not significantly different from the MELD score AUC.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score most correlated with total bilirubin after LDLT, while the APACHE II and SOFA scores seemed to correlate with mortality after LDLT.

Posttransplant mortality risk assessment for adult-to-adult right-lobe living donor liver recipients with benign end-stage liver disease

OBJECTIVE

A model for living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) outcomes, in concert with pretransplant disease severity assessment, would facilitate informed decision-making on both sides considering donation and transplantation. So far, however, few of studies have focused on models specifically for adult-to-adult right-lobe LDLT recipients with benign end-stage liver diseases. Therefore, we aimed to develop such a prognostic model based on easily obtainable and objective pretransplant characteristics.

METHODS

With data retrospectively collected on 120 recipients, we used Cox proportional-hazards regression to analyze six donor characteristics and 33 pretransplant recipient variables for correlation with posttransplant mortality. In both a modeling set and a prospective validation set with 30 recipients, the performances of the new Cox model, MELD, and MELD-Na+ were assessed by measuring both calibration ability and discriminative power with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

By univariate and multivariate analysis, donor age, serum total bilirubin, creatinine, and HBV-DNA level were significantly associated with posttransplant mortality. The Cox model, employing these four variables, yielded good calibration ability in the modeling set χ² = 2.465, p = 0.653) and the validation set χ² = 2.836, p = 0.586), and high discriminative power in the modeling set (c-statistic = 0.826, p = 0.001) and validation set (c-statistic = 0.816, p = 0.028). The calibration ability and discriminative power of MELD and MELD-Na+ in both sets were poor.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly derived Cox model was valuable in posttransplant mortality risk assessment for adult-to-adult right-lobe LDLT recipients with benign end-stage liver diseases.

Hyponatremia - predictor of adverse prognosis in cirrhosis

Hyponatremia is a frequent complication of the advanced liver disease, being, as the hepatorenal syndrome, a consequence of the important circulatory dysfunction of cirrhosis. Hyponatremia is determined by the impaired capacity of the kidney to excrete free water, which leads to water retention disproportionate to sodium retention, thus causing low plasma osmolarity. Hyponatremia in cirrhosis is associated with a high morbidity and mortality, its presence suggesting a very advanced liver disease. Current evidence suggests that hyponatremia affects the brain function and predisposes to hepatic encephalopathy. In addition, hyponatremia is a risk factor for liver transplantation, being associated with a high frequency of complication and affecting short and long-term post-transplant survival.