Climate change is the primary driver of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic-breeding bird

Anthropogenic climate disruption, including temperature and precipitation regime shifts, has been linked to animal population declines since the mid-20th century. However, some species, such as Arctic-breeding geese, have thrived during this period. An increased understanding of how climate disruption might link to demographic rates in thriving species is an important perspective in quantifying the impact of anthropogenic climate disruption on the global state of nature. The Greenland barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) population has increased tenfold in abundance since the mid-20th century. A concurrent weather regime shift towards warmer, wetter conditions occurred throughout its range in Greenland (breeding), Ireland and Scotland (wintering) and Iceland (spring and autumn staging). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between weather and demographic rates of Greenland barnacle geese to discern the role of climate shifts in the population trend. We quantified the relationship between temperature and precipitation and Greenland barnacle goose survival and productivity over a 50 year period from 1968 to 2018. We detected significant positive relationships between warmer, wetter conditions on the Icelandic spring staging grounds and survival. We also detected contrasting relationships between warmer, wetter conditions during autumn staging and survival and productivity, with warm, dry conditions being the most favourable for productivity. Survival increased in the latter part of the study period, supporting the possibility that spring weather regime shifts contributed to the increasing population trend. This may be related to improved forage resources, as warming air temperatures have been shown to improve survival rates in several other Arctic and northern terrestrial herbivorous species through indirect bottom-up effects on forage availability.

Large-scale prion protein genotyping in Canadian caribou populations and potential impact on chronic wasting disease susceptibility

Polymorphisms within the prion protein gene (Prnp) are an intrinsic factor that can modulate chronic wasting disease (CWD) pathogenesis in cervids. Although wild European reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) were infected with CWD, as yet there have been no reports of the disease in North American caribou (R. tarandus spp.). Previous Prnp genotyping studies on approximately 200 caribou revealed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at codons 2 (V/M), 129 (G/S), 138 (S/N), 146 (N/n) and 169 (V/M). The impact of these polymorphisms on CWD transmission is mostly unknown, except for codon 138. Reindeer carrying at least one allele encoding for asparagine (138NN or 138SN) are less susceptible to clinical CWD upon infection by natural routes, with the majority of prions limited to extraneural tissues. We sequenced the Prnp coding region of two caribou subspecies (n = 986) from British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Yukon, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, to identify SNPs and their frequencies. Genotype frequencies at codon 138 differed significantly between barren-ground (R. t. groenlandicus) and woodland (R. t. caribou) caribou when we excluded the Chinchaga herd (p < .05). We also found new variants at codons 153 (Y/F) and 242 (P/L). Our findings show that the 138N allele is rare among caribou in areas with higher risk of contact with CWD-infected species. As both subspecies are classified as Threatened and play significant roles in North American Indigenous culture, history, food security and the economy, determining frequencies of Prnp genotypes associated with susceptibility to CWD is important for future wildlife management measures.

Influences of landscape change and winter severity on invasive ungulate persistence in the Nearctic boreal forest

Climate and landscape change are drivers of species range shifts and biodiversity loss; understanding how they facilitate and sustain invasions has been empirically challenging. Winter severity is decreasing with climate change and is a predicted mechanism of contemporary and future range shifts. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) expansion is a continental phenomenon across the Nearctic with ecological consequences for entire biotic communities. We capitalized on recent temporal variation in winter severity to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of invasive deer distribution in the Nearctic boreal forest. We hypothesized deer distribution would decrease in severe winters reflecting historical climate constraints, and remain more static in moderate winters reflecting recent climate. Further, we predicted that regardless of winter severity, deer distribution would persist and be best explained by early seral forage subsidies from extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We applied dynamic occupancy models in time, and species distribution models in space, to data from 62 camera traps sampled over 3 years in northeastern Alberta, Canada. Deer distribution shrank more markedly in severe winters but rebounded each spring regardless of winter severity. Deer distribution was best explained by anthropogenic landscape features assumed to provide early seral vegetation subsidy, accounting for natural landcover. We conclude that deer dynamics in the northern boreal forest are influenced both by landscape change across space and winter severity through time, the latter expected to further decrease with climate change. We contend that the combined influence of these two drivers is likely pervasive for many species, with changing resources offsetting or augmenting physiological limitations.

Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

A central theme of range-limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high-latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology-niche theory and predator-prey theory-provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species' range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal-temperate and forest-tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range-limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high-latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low-latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions (n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.

Using movement ecology to investigate meningeal worm risk in moose, Alces alces

Anthropogenic habitat change and moderating climatic conditions have enabled the northward geographic expansion of white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, and of the parasitic nematode (meningeal worm) it carries, Parelaphostrongylus tenuis. This expansion can have consequences in dead-end host species for other ungulates because meningeal worm reduces health, causes morbidity or direct mortality, and has been attributed to population declines. In northeastern Minnesota, which marks the southern extent of the bioclimatic range for moose (Alces alces), the moose population has declined more than 50% in the last decade, with studies detecting P. tenuis in 25–45% of necropsied animals. We assessed the factors that most commonly are associated with meningeal worm infection by linking moose movement ecology with known P. tenuis infection status from necropsy. We outfitted moose with GPS collars to assess their space use and cause-specific mortality. Upon death of the subject animal, we performed a necropsy to determine the cause of death and document meningeal worm infection. We then created statistical models to assess the relationship between meningeal worm infection and exposure to hypothesized factors of infection risk based on the space use of each moose by season. Predictors included land cover types, deer space use and density, environmental conditions, and demographics of individual moose (age and sex). Moose with autumn home ranges that included more upland shrub/conifer, and individuals with high proportions of wet environments, regardless of season, had increased infection risk. In contrast, the strongest relationships we found showed that high proportions of mixed and conifer forest within spring home ranges resulted in reduced risk of infection. The spring models showed the strongest relationships between exposure and infection, potentially due to moose foraging on ground vegetation during spring. By incorporating movement of moose into disease ecology, we were able to take a top-down approach to test hypothesized components of infection risk with actual spatial and temporal exposure of individual necropsied moose. The probability of infection for moose was not influenced by deer density, although deer densities did not vary greatly within the study area (2–4 deer/km2), highlighting the importance of also considering both moose space use and environmental conditions in understanding infection risk. We suggest management strategies that use a combination of deer and land management prescriptions designed to limit contact rates in susceptible populations.

Temporal and spatial spread of Hypoderma actaeon infection in roe deer from peninsular Spain determined by an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay

The host switching of Hypoderma actaeon (Diptera: Oestridae), a specific parasite of red deer (Cervus elaphus), towards roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) has been recently reported in Spain. To provide information about the temporal and spatial spreading of H. actaeon infection in roe deer, 244 serum samples from animals hunted in Spain between 2013 and 2018 were analysed by an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The overall seropositivity was 13.9%. Seropositivity was higher in continental (27.7%) and mountainous (12%) areas from central Spain, followed by southern-Mediterranean (11.2%) and northern-oceanic regions (3.5%). Differences were significant between central-continental and northern-oceanic regions (P = 0.003). No differences were found according to the sex and age of roe deer (P > 0.05). In 2013, all seropositive animals were concentrated in two distant areas in central and southern Spain, suggesting that the host switch could have occurred independently in both regions. Changes in the pattern of distribution of red deer and roe deer could have favoured the spreading of this myiasis towards roe deer, indicating that roe deer may become infested by H. actaeon in areas where both cervids coexist at high densities.

Review: Livestock production increasingly influences wildlife across the globe

With the growing human population, and their improving wealth, it is predicted that there will be significant increases in demand for livestock products (mainly meat and milk). Recent years have demonstrated that the growth in livestock production has generally had significant impacts on wildlife worldwide; and these are, usually, negative. Here I review the interactions between livestock and wildlife and assess the mechanisms through which these interactions occur. The review is framed within the context of the socio-ecological system whereby people are as much a part of the interaction between livestock and wildlife as the animal species themselves. I highlight areas of interaction that are mediated through effects on the forage supply (vegetation) - neutral, positive and negative - however, the review broadly analyses the impacts of livestock production activities. The evidence suggests that it is not the interaction between the species themselves but the ancillary activities associated with livestock production (e.g. land use change, removal of predators, provision of water points) that are the major factors affecting the outcome for wildlife. So in future, there are two key issues that need to be addressed - first, we need to intensify livestock production in areas of 'intensive' livestock production in order to reduce the pressure for land use change to meet the demand for meat (land sparing). And second, if wildlife is to survive in areas where livestock production dominates, it will have to be the people part of the socio-ecological system that sees the benefits of having wildlife co-exist with livestock on farming lands (land sharing and win-win).

Impact of rewilding, species introductions and climate change on the structure and function of the Yukon boreal forest ecosystem

Community and ecosystem changes are happening in the pristine boreal forest ecosystem of the Yukon for 2 reasons. First, climate change is affecting the abiotic environment (temperature, rainfall and growing season) and driving changes in plant productivity and predator–prey interactions. Second, simultaneously change is occurring because of mammal species reintroductions and rewilding. The key ecological question is the impact these faunal changes will have on trophic dynamics. Primary productivity in the boreal forest is increasing because of climatic warming, but plant species composition is unlikely to change significantly during the next 50–100 years. The 9–10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares will persist but could be reduced in amplitude if winter weather increases predator hunting efficiency. Small rodents have increased in abundance because of increased vegetation growth. Arctic ground squirrels have disappeared from the forest because of increased predator hunting efficiency associated with shrub growth. Reintroductions have occurred for 2 reasons: human reintroductions of large ungulates and natural recolonization of mammals and birds extending their geographic ranges. The deliberate rewilding of wood bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus canadensis) has changed the trophic structure of this boreal ecosystem very little. The natural range expansion of mountain lions (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and American marten (Martes americana) should have few ecosystem effects. Understanding potential changes will require long‐term monitoring studies and experiments on a scale we rarely deem possible. Ecosystems affected by climate change, species reintroductions and human alteration of habitats cannot remain stable and changes will be critically dependent on food web interactions.

Brave New Worlds: The Expanding Universe of Lyme Disease

Projections around the globe suggest an increase in tick-vectored disease incidence and distribution, and the potential for emergence of novel tick-borne pathogens. Lyme disease is the most common reported tick-borne illness in the Unites States and is prevalent throughout much of central Europe. In recent years, the worldwide burden of Lyme disease has increased and extended into regions and countries where the disease was not previously reported. In this review, we discuss the trends for increasing Lyme disease, and examine the factors driving Lyme disease expansion, including the effect of climate change on the spread of vector Ixodid ticks and reservoir hosts; and the impacts of increased awareness on disease reporting and diagnosis. To understand the growing threat of Lyme disease, we need to study the interplay between vector, reservoir, and pathogen. In addition, we need to understand the contributions of climate conditions to changes in disease risk.