Falls Predict Fractures Independently of FRAX Probability: A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

Fracture prediction from self-reported falls in routine clinical practice: a registry-based cohort study

A simple question construct regarding number of falls in the previous year, ascertained by a single question, was strongly associated with incident fractures in routine clinical practice using a population-based dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) registry.

INTRODUCTION

There is conflicting evidence from research cohorts that falls independently increase fracture risk. We examined the independent effects of falls on subsequent fractures in a large clinical registry of bone mineral density (BMD) results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada that has been systematically collecting self-reported falls information since September 1, 2012.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 24,943 women and men aged 40 years and older (mean age 65.5 ± 10.2 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX), self-reported falls for the previous year (categorized as none, 1, 2, or > 3) and fracture outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95 confidence intervals (CI) for time to fracture were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During mean observation time of 2.7 ± 1.0 years, 863 (3.5%) sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 212 (0.8%) sustained a hip fracture, and 1210 (4.9%) sustained any incident fracture. Compared with no falls in the previous year (referent), there was a gradient of increasing risk for fracture with increasing number of falls (all P < 0.001). Results showed minimal attenuation with covariate adjustment. When adjusted for baseline fracture probability (FRAX score with BMD) the HR for MOF increased from 1.49 (95% CI 1.25-1.78) for one fall to 1.74 (1.33-2.27) for two falls to 2.62 (2.06-3.34) for ≥ 3 falls. HRs were similar for any incident fracture and slightly greater for prediction of hip fracture, reaching 3.41 (95% CI 2.19-5.31) for ≥ 3 previous falls.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-report number of falls in the previous year is strongly associated with incident fracture risk in the routine clinical practice setting, and this risk is independent of age, sex, BMD, and baseline fracture probability. Moreover, there is dose-response with multiple falls (up to a maximum of 3) conferring greater risk than a single fall.

Prediction of lumbar vertebral strength of elderly men based on quantitative computed tomography images using machine learning

The parameters extracted from quantitative computed tomography (QCT) images were used to predict vertebral strength through machine learning models, and the highly accurate prediction indicated that it may be a promising approach to assess fracture risk in clinics.

INTRODUCTION

Vertebral fracture is common in elderly populations. The main factor contributing to vertebral fracture is the reduced vertebral strength. This study aimed to predict vertebral strength based on clinical QCT images by using machine learning.

METHODS

Eighty subjects with QCT data of lumbar spine were randomly selected from the MrOS cohorts. L1 vertebral strengths were computed by QCT-based finite element analysis. A total of 58 features of each L1 vertebral body were extracted from QCT images, including grayscale distribution, grayscale values of 39 partitioned regions, BMD_QCT, structural rigidity, axial rigidity, and BMD_QCTA_min. Feature selection and dimensionality reduction were used to simplify the 58 features. General regression neural network and support vector regression models were developed to predict vertebral strength. Performance of prediction models was quantified by the mean squared error, the coefficient of determination, the mean bias, and the SD of bias.

RESULTS

The 58 parameters were simplified to five features (grayscale value of the 60% percentile, grayscale values of three specific partitioned regions, and BMD_QCTA_min) and nine principal components (PCs). High accuracy was achieved by using the five features or the nine PCs to predict vertebral strength.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided an effective approach to predict vertebral strength and showed that it may have great potential in clinical applications for noninvasive assessment of vertebral fracture risk.

Secondary fracture prevention: Drug treatment, fall prevention and nutrition requirements

In view of the high imminent risk for subsequent fractures, evaluation as early as possible after the fracture will result in early decisions about drug treatment, fall prevention and nutritional supplements. Drug treatment includes anti-resorptive and bone forming agents. Anti-resorptive therapy with broad spectrum fracture prevention and early anti-fracture effects are the first choice. In patients with multiple or severe VFs, the bone forming agent teriparatide should be considered. Adequate calcium and vitamin D are needed in all patients, together with appropriate nutrition, including adequate protein intake.

Characteristics of Self-Reported Sleep and the Risk of Falls and Fractures: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI)

Sleep disturbances are common and may influence falls and fracture directly by influencing bone turnover and muscle strength or indirectly through high comorbidity or poor physical function. To investigate the association between self-reported sleep and falls and fractures, we prospectively studied 157,306 women in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) using information on sleep quality, sleep duration, and insomnia from questionnaires. Annual self-report of falling two or more times (ie, "recurrent falling") during each year of follow-up was modeled with repeated measures logistic regression models fit by generalized estimating equations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate sleep disturbance and time to first fracture. We examined the risks of recurrent falls and fracture by sleep duration with 7 hours as referent. We examined the risks across categories of sleep disturbance, insomnia status, and sleep quality. The average follow-up time was 7.6 years for falls and 12.0 years for fractures. In multivariable adjusted models, including adjustment for comorbidity, medications, and physical function, women who were short (≤5 hours) and long (≥10 hours) sleepers had increased odds of recurrent falls (odds ratio [OR] 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 1.34 and OR 1.25; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.43, respectively). Poor sleep quality, insomnia, and more sleep disturbances were also associated with an increased odds of recurrent falls. Short sleep was associated with an increased risk of all fractures, and upper limb, lower limb, and central body fractures, but not hip fractures, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.10 to 1.13 (p < 0.05). There was little association between other sleep characteristics and fracture. In conclusion, short and long sleep duration and poor sleep quality were independently associated with increased odds of recurrent falls. Short sleep was associated with modest increase in fractures. Future long-term trials of sleep interventions should include falls and fractures as endpoints. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Osteoporosis

Fractures resulting from osteoporosis become increasingly common in women after age 55 years and men after age 65 years, resulting in substantial bone-associated morbidities, and increased mortality and health-care costs. Research advances have led to a more accurate assessment of fracture risk and have increased the range of therapeutic options available to prevent fractures. Fracture risk algorithms that combine clinical risk factors and bone mineral density are now widely used in clinical practice to target high-risk individuals for treatment. The discovery of key pathways regulating bone resorption and formation has identified new approaches to treatment with distinctive mechanisms of action. Osteoporosis is a chronic condition and long-term, sometimes lifelong, management is required. In individuals at high risk of fracture, the benefit versus risk profile is likely to be favourable for up to 10 years of treatment with bisphosphonates or denosumab. In people at a very high or imminent risk of fracture, therapy with teriparatide or abaloparatide should be considered; however, since treatment duration with these drugs is restricted to 18-24 months, treatment should be continued with an antiresorptive drug. Individuals at high risk of fractures do not receive adequate treatment and strategies to address this treatment gap-eg, widespread implementation of Fracture Liaison Services and improvement of adherence to therapy-are important challenges for the future.

European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women

Guidance is provided in a European setting on the assessment and treatment of postmenopausal women at risk from fractures due to osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION

The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2013. This manuscript updates these in a European setting.

METHODS

Systematic reviews were updated.

RESULTS

The following areas are reviewed: the role of bone mineral density measurement for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and assessment of fracture risk; general and pharmacological management of osteoporosis; monitoring of treatment; assessment of fracture risk; case-finding strategies; investigation of patients; health economics of treatment. The update includes new information on the evaluation of bone microstructure evaluation in facture risk assessment, the role of FRAX® and Fracture Liaison Services in secondary fracture prevention, long-term effects on fracture risk of dietary intakes, and increased fracture risk on stopping drug treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use.

Measures of Physical Performance and Muscle Strength as Predictors of Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX, Falls, and aBMD: A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

Measures of muscle mass, strength, and function predict risk of incident fractures, but it is not known whether this risk information is additive to that from FRAX (fracture risk assessment tool) probability. In the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts (Sweden, Hong Kong, United States), we investigated whether measures of physical performance/appendicular lean mass (ALM) by DXA predicted incident fractures in older men, independently of FRAX probability. Baseline information included falls history, clinical risk factors for falls and fractures, femoral neck aBMD, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between time for five chair stands, walking speed over a 6 m distance, grip strength, ALM adjusted for body size (ALM/height2 ), FRAX probability (major osteoporotic fracture [MOF]) with or without femoral neck aBMD, available in a subset of n = 7531), and incident MOF (hip, clinical vertebral, wrist, or proximal humerus). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline, and are reported as hazard ratios (HRs) for first incident fracture per SD increment in predictor using meta-analysis. 5660 men in the United States (mean age 73.5 years), 2764 men in Sweden (75.4 years), and 1987 men in Hong Kong (72.4 years) were studied. Mean follow-up time was 8.7 to 10.9 years. Greater time for five chair stands was associated with greater risk of MOF (HR 1.26; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.34), whereas greater walking speed (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.90), grip strength (HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.82), and ALM/height2 (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.90) were associated with lower risk of incident MOF. Associations remained largely similar after adjustment for FRAX, but associations between ALM/height2 and MOF were weakened (HR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99). Inclusion of femoral neck aBMD markedly attenuated the association between ALM/height2 and MOF (HR 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.10). Measures of physical performance predicted incident fractures independently of FRAX probability. Whilst the predictive value of ALM/height2 was substantially reduced by inclusion of aBMD requires further study, these findings support the consideration of physical performance in fracture risk assessment. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Hearing impairment increases the risk of distal radius, hip, and spine fractures: A longitudinal follow-up study using a national sample cohort

Objective

Hearing impairment has been suggested to increase the risk of falls. However, most previous studies were conducted in an older population without classification of the fracture regions. This study aimed to delineate the risk of each fracture type in all age populations.

Methods

The Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort was collected from 2002 to 2013. A total of 4,854 severe hearing-impaired and 1,354 profound hearing-impaired participants were matched for age, group, sex, income group, and region of residence with 19,416 and 5,416 control participants, respectively. The fracture diagnosis was based on the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes as follows: distal radius fracture (S525), hip fracture (S720, S721, S722), and spine fracture (S220, S32). Crude (simple) and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for each fracture associated with severe or profound hearing impairment were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

The severe hearing-impaired group had an increased risk of distal radius fracture, hip fracture, and spine fracture compared with the control group (adjusted HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.38–2.03, P < 0.001 for hip fracture). The profound hearing-impaired group had an increased risk of hip and spine fracture (adjusted HR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.44–3.39, P < 0.001 for hip fracture).

Conclusion

The risk of distal radius fracture, hip fracture, and spine fracture was increased in the severe hearing-impaired group compared with the control group.