Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies in drug product development

Bioequivalence of two recombinant interferon alpha-2b liquid formulations in healthy male volunteers

OBJECTIVE

Interferon (IFN) alpha-2b is a protein with antiviral, antiproliferative and immunoregulatory properties that is approved for several clinical indications. A new liquid, albumin-free, IFNalpha-2b formulation has recently been developed. This study aimed to evaluate the equivalence of the pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic and safety properties of the new formulation with a reference one in healthy male volunteers.

METHODS

A randomised, crossover, double-blind study with a 3-week washout period was performed in which Heberon Alfa R (formulation A) and Viraferon (formulation B) were compared. A single 20 x 10(6) IU IFNalpha-2b dose was administered subcutaneously to 14 apparently healthy male subjects. Serum IFN level was measured over 48 hours by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and by antiviral activity titration. Clinical and laboratory variables were determined, as were pharmacodynamic and safety criteria.

RESULTS

Groups were homogeneous with regard to all demographic and baseline variables. Pharmacokinetic comparison by EIA did not show differences between the formulations: area under the curve (AUC) 2572 versus 2561 ng x h/L, maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) 318 versus 354 ng/L, time to Cmax (tmax) 8.2 versus 8.5 h, elimination half-life (t(1/2)) 5.87 versus 6.08 h, terminal elimination rate (lambda) 0.122 versus 0.118 h(-1), and mean residence time (MRT) 10.9 versus 12.0 h for formulations A and B, respectively. The differences never reached 20%, which is the clinically significant threshold. The 90% confidence interval of the ratio between them was in all cases within the 0.8, 1.25 range. The two formulations were clinically equivalent with regard to serum IFN antiviral activity titration (0.8, 1.25 criterion) regarding their pharmacokinetic parameters. There were no significant differences with respect to the pharmacodynamic variables: serum beta2-microglobulin and temperature increase. Heart rate and blood pressure changes did not differ either. Both products provoked similar haematological count decreases and had similar safety profiles. The most frequent adverse reactions were fever, tachycardia, headache and arthralgias.

CONCLUSION

The overall analysis strongly suggests the bioequivalence of these two products.

A simple in vitro PK/PD model system to determine time-kill curves of drugs against Mycobacteria

In vivo tuberculosis is exposed to continually changing drug concentrations for which static minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) testing may be a poor surrogate. While in vitro approaches to determine time-kill curves for antibiotics have been widely applied in assessing antimicrobial activity against fast growing microorganisms, their availability and application for slow-growing microorganisms including Mycobacterium tuberculosis has so far been scarce. Thus, we developed a novel simple in vitro pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for establishing time-kill curves and applied it for evaluating the antimicrobial activity of different dosing regimens of isoniazid (INH) against Mycobacterium bovis BCG as a surrogate for virulent M. tuberculosis. In the in vitro model M. bovis BCG was exposed to INH concentration-time profiles as usually encountered during multiple dose therapy with 25, 100 and 300mg/day in humans who are fast or slow INH metabolizers. Bacterial killing was followed over time by determining viable counts and the resulting time-kill data was analyzed using a semi-mechanistic PK/PD model with an adaptive IC(50) function to describe the emergence of insensitive populations of bacteria over the course of treatment. In agreement with previous studies, the time-kill data suggest that AUC(0-24)/MIC is the PK/PD index that is the most explanatory of the antimicrobial effect of INH. The presented in vitro PK/PD model and associated modeling approach were able to characterize the time-kill kinetics of INH in M. bovis BCG, and may in general serve as a potentially valuable, low cost tool for the assessment of antibacterial activity in slow-growing organisms in drug development and applied pharmacotherapy.

Model-based decision making in early clinical development: minimizing the impact of a blood pressure adverse event

We describe how modeling and simulation guided program decisions following a randomized placebo-controlled single-rising oral dose first-in-man trial of compound A where an undesired transient blood pressure (BP) elevation occurred in fasted healthy young adult males. We proposed a lumped-parameter pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model that captured important aspects of the BP homeostasis mechanism. Four conceptual units characterized the feedback PD model: a sinusoidal BP set point, an effect compartment, a linear effect model, and a system response. To explore approaches for minimizing the BP increase, we coupled the PD model to a modified PK model to guide oral controlled-release (CR) development. The proposed PK/PD model captured the central tendency of the observed data. The simulated BP response obtained with theoretical release rate profiles suggested some amelioration of the peak BP response with CR. This triggered subsequent CR formulation development; we used actual dissolution data from these candidate CR formulations in the PK/PD model to confirm a potential benefit in the peak BP response. Though this paradigm has yet to be tested in the clinic, our model-based approach provided a common rational framework to more fully utilize the limited available information for advancing the program.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and simulation for bactericidal effect in an in vitro dynamic model

A pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling strategy to explain the data from an in vitro dynamic model is proposed. Two carbapenem antibiotics, doripenem and meropenem, and three Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains were used as example drugs and strains. The PD model we originally developed to explain the in vitro time-kill data was modified by incorporating bactericidal activities and simulated in vivo PK profiles of the drugs. By employing only one parameter regarding the bactericidal activity from the data at a certain dosage regimen, the bacterial profiles at various dosage regimens could be well simulated for both antibiotics by the PK/PD model. Moreover, simulated bacterial counts for various dosage regimens correlated with time above minimum inhibitory concentration derived from free drug concentrations (fT > MIC) for doripenem. The predicted fT > MIC values to achieve PK/PD endpoints for three strains (static effect: 25.0%, 23.9%, and 39.8%, 2-log killing effect: 28.1%, 29.5%, and 49.6%, 90% maximum killing effect: 36.5%, 46.8%, and 80.7%) were similar to those estimated from free drug concentrations in animal infection models. The proposed in vitro PK/PD model would be useful for simulating bactericidal kinetics in the dynamic model and predicting the human therapeutic target for PK/PD indices estimated from animal infection models.

Concepts and challenges in quantitative pharmacology and model-based drug development

Model-based drug development (MBDD) has been recognized as a concept to improve the efficiency of drug development. The acceptance of MBDD from regulatory agencies, industry, and academia has been growing, yet today's drug development practice is still distinctly distant from MBDD. This manuscript is aimed at clarifying the concept of MBDD and proposing practical approaches for implementing MBDD in the pharmaceutical industry. The following concepts are defined and distinguished: PK-PD modeling, exposure-response modeling, pharmacometrics, quantitative pharmacology, and MBDD. MBDD is viewed as a paradigm and a mindset in which models constitute the instruments and aims of drug development efforts. MBDD covers the whole spectrum of the drug development process instead of being limited to a certain type of modeling technique or application area. The implementation of MBDD requires pharmaceutical companies to foster innovation and make changes at three levels: (1) to establish mindsets that are willing to get acquainted with MBDD, (2) to align processes that are adaptive to the requirements of MBDD, and (3) to create a closely collaborating organization in which all members play a role in MBDD. Pharmaceutical companies that are able to embrace the changes MBDD poses will likely be able to improve their success rate in drug development, and the beneficiaries will ultimately be the patients in need.

Potential of pharmacokinetic profiling for detecting herbal interactions with drugs

The issue of herb-drug interactions has generated significant concern within the pharmaceutical industry and among regulatory authorities in recent years. Therefore, accurate models of predicting metabolic herb-drug interactions would be useful tools in efforts to avoid toxic adverse events. However, the majority of pharmacokinetic interactions listed for herbal medicinal products are based on theoretical predictions of the in vitro pharmacological effects of known constituents, which do not necessarily have to be the active ingredients. The prediction of herb-drug interactions is further complicated by the fact that pharmacokinetic data on active or (at least) known ingredients are often not available. The present article discusses the potential of pharmacokinetic profiling for detecting herb-drug interactions, using the most frequently cited interactions in the literature as examples. In particular, common mechanisms of herb-drug interactions are summarized, and the available experimental methods for detecting such interactions, as well as the limitations of these models, are critically evaluated. In addition, we discuss the question of whether the existing methods of detecting herb-drug interactions correlate with the clinical relevance. Effective screening tools that accurately predict metabolic herb-drug interactions would offer a tremendous advantage because it is not possible to study all potential herb-drug interactions in clinical trials.

Pharmacokinetics of antofloxacin hydrochloride, a new fluoroquinolone antibiotic, after single oral dose administration in Chinese healthy male volunteers

Antofloxacin hydrochloride is a newly developed fluoroquinolone antibacterial in China, which has comparable in vitro and animal pharmacological and toxicological properties to levofloxacin and is worthy of further clinical trial. Human tolerance of single escalating doses from 50 to 500 mg was shown to be safe. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the pharmacokinetic characteristics of a single oral dose of antofloxacin hydrochloride in Chinese healthy male volunteers. Twelve subjects were randomized for administration of a single dose of 300, 400 and 500 mg antofloxacin hydrochloride in a 3-way crossover design. High pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) was used to assay the serum and urine concentrations of antofloxacin in samples collected over a period of 72 h following drug administration. All three dosages were well tolerated. Antofloxacin hydrochloride demonstrated linear pharmacokinetic characteristics with mean pharmacokinetic values varying from 0.09 to 0.10 l/h/kg for CL/F and from 2.75-3.00 l/kg for V/F. The t(1/2beta) was around 20 h and the mean fraction of dose excreted in urine varied from 0.40 to 0.46. Based on these data, 300 mg of antofloxacin hydrochloride administered once daily was selected for further investigation in a multiple dose administration study.

Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Modeling and Simulation for in Vivo Bactericidal Effect in Murine Infection Model

A pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling strategy to simulate in vivo bactericidal effects for three carbapenem antibiotics, doripenem (DRPM), meropenem (MEPM)/cilastatin (CS), and imipenem (IPM)/CS, against a Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) strain is proposed. The PD model we have already developed to explain in vitro time-kill profiles was modified to incorporate the growth rate, bactericidal activities, and PK profiles in murine lung infection models. Plasma concentration data and bacterial time-kill data for each antibiotic consist of six and eight time points, respectively, at one dose regimen (four or five mouse/point). In vivo time-kill curves could be well simulated for each antibiotic by the PK/PD model. Simulated bacterial counts at 24 h and PK/PD indices derived from total drug concentrations (time above the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) (T > MIC), C(max)/MIC, and AUC/MIC) for various dose regimens were examined for MEPM/CS and IPM/CS. Simulated bacterial counts correlated only with T > MIC (correlation coefficient: 0.951 for MEPM/CS, 0.982 for IPM/CS) and T > MIC values to achieve a bacteriostatic effect and a 2-log killing effect for both antibiotics were estimated to be approximately 15 and 20%, respectively, which are similar to previously reported results. These findings suggested that the proposed PK/PD model is a good tool for predicting in vivo bactericidal effects.

Evaluation of uncertainty parameters estimated by different population PK software and methods

The uncertainty associated with parameter estimations is essential for population model building, evaluation, and simulation. Summarized by the standard error (SE), its estimation is sometimes questionable. Herein, we evaluate SEs provided by different non linear mixed-effect estimation methods associated with their estimation performances. Methods based on maximum likelihood (FO and FOCE in NONMEM, nlme in Splus, and SAEM in MONOLIX) and Bayesian theory (WinBUGS) were evaluated on datasets obtained by simulations of a one-compartment PK model using 9 different designs. Bootstrap techniques were applied to FO, FOCE, and nlme. We compared SE estimations, parameter estimations, convergence, and computation time. Regarding SE estimations, methods provided concordant results for fixed effects. On random effects, SAEM and WinBUGS, tended respectively to under or over-estimate them. With sparse data, FO provided biased estimations of SE and discordant results between bootstrapped and original datasets. Regarding parameter estimations, FO showed a systematic bias on fixed and random effects. WinBUGS provided biased estimations, but only with sparse data. SAEM and WinBUGS converged systematically while FOCE failed in half of the cases. Applying bootstrap with FOCE yielded CPU times too large for routine application and bootstrap with nlme resulted in frequent crashes. In conclusion, FO provided bias on parameter estimations and on SE estimations of random effects. Methods like FOCE provided unbiased results but convergence was the biggest issue. Bootstrap did not improve SEs for FOCE methods, except when confidence interval of random effects is needed. WinBUGS gave consistent results but required long computation times. SAEM was in-between, showing few under-estimated SE but unbiased parameter estimations.

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modelling of Danofloxacin in Turkeys

Colibacillosis is a systemic disease responsible for important economic losses in poultry breeding; fluoroquinolones, including danofloxacin, are used to treat diseased animals. The purpose of the present study was to estimate pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) surrogates for bacteriostasis, bactericidal activity and bacterial elimination against Escherichia coli O78/K80, using a PK-PD approach, for danofloxacin in turkeys after oral administration. Eight healthy turkeys, breed BUT 9, were included in a two-way crossover study. The drug was administered intravenously (i.v.) and orally at a dose rate of 6 mg/kg bw. The values of the elimination half-life and the total body clearance after i.v. administration were 8.64 +/- 2.35 h and 586.76 +/- 136.67 ml kg(-1)h(-1), respectively. After oral administration, the values of the absolute bioavailability and the elimination half-life were 78.37+/- 17.35% and 9.74+/- 2.93 h, respectively. The minimum inhibitory concentration against the investigated strain in turkey serum was 0.25 microg/ml, four times higher than in broth. The lowest effective ex vivo AUC(24)/MIC ratios required for bacteriostasis, bactericidal activity, and total killing of E. coli O78/K80 were 0.416 h, 1.9 h and 6.73 h, respectively. The oral dose of 6 mg/kg used in the present study could be interpreted as being sufficient to eliminate E. coli with an MIC 0.25 microg/ml. However, considering the demand that antimicrobial resistance should be avoided by complete bacterial elimination, PK-PD considerations suggest that an even higher dose of 32 mg/kg per day or 0.7 mg/kcal per day should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Integration of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic indices of marbofloxacin in turkeys

Fluoroquinolones are extensively used in the treatment of systemic bacterial infections in poultry, including systemic Escherichia coli bacillosis, which is a common disease in turkey flocks. Marbofloxacin has been licensed for use in various mammalian species, but not as yet for turkeys, although its kinetic properties distinguish it from other fluoroquinolones. For example, the longer half-life of marbofloxacin in many animal species has been appreciated in veterinary practice. It is generally accepted that, for fluoroquinolones, the optimal dose should be estimated on the basis of the pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) characteristics of the drug under consideration. Knowledge of these specific data for the target animal species allows the establishment of an integrated PK-PD model that is of high predictive value. In the present study, the antibacterial efficacy (PD indices) against a field isolate of Escherichia coli O78/K80 was investigated ex vivo following oral and intravenous administration of marbofloxacin to turkeys (breed BUT 9; six animals per group) at a dose of 2 mg/kg of body weight (BW). At the same time, the serum concentrations of marbofloxacin were measured at different time intervals by a standardized high-performance liquid chromatography method, allowing the calculation of the most relevant kinetic parameters (PK parameters). The in vitro serum inhibitory activity of marbofloxacin against the selected E. coli strain, O78/K80, was 0.5 mug/ml in the blood serum of turkeys, and the ratio of the maximum concentration of the drug in serum to the serum inhibitory activity was 1.34. The lowest ratio of the measured serum concentration multiplied by the incubation period of 24 h to the serum inhibitory activity required for bacterial elimination was lower than the ratio of the area under the serum concentration-time curve (AUC) to the serum inhibitory activity. These first results suggested that the recommended dose of 2 mg/kg BW of marbofloxacin is sufficient to achieve a therapeutic effect in diseased animals. However, considering the risk of resistance induction, the applied dose should be equal to an AUC/MIC of >125, the generally recommended dose for all fluoroquinolones. According to the PK-PD results presented here, a dose of 3.0 to 12.0 mg/kg BW per day would be needed to meet this criterion. In conclusion, the results of the present study provide the rationale for an optimal dose regimen for marbofloxacin in turkeys and hence should form the basis for dose selection in forthcoming clinical trials.

Model-based drug development: the road to quantitative pharmacology

High development costs and low success rates in bringing new medicines to the market demand more efficient and effective approaches. Identified by the FDA as a valuable prognostic tool for fulfilling such a demand, model-based drug development is a mathematical and statistical approach that constructs, validates, and utilizes disease models, drug exposure-response models, and pharmacometric models to facilitate drug development. Quantitative pharmacology is a discipline that learns and confirms the key characteristics of new molecular entities in a quantitative manner, with goal of providing explicit, reproducible, and predictive evidence for optimizing drug development plans and enabling critical decision making. Model-based drug development serves as an integral part of quantitative pharmacology. This work reviews the general concept, basic elements, and evolving role of model-based drug development in quantitative pharmacology. Two case studies are presented to illustrate how the model-based drug development approach can facilitate knowledge management and decision making during drug development. The case studies also highlight the organizational learning that comes through implementation of quantitative pharmacology as a discipline. Finally, the prospects of quantitative pharmacology as an emerging discipline are discussed. Advances in this discipline will require continued collaboration between academia, industry and regulatory agencies.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of systemically administered glucocorticoids

Glucocorticoids have pleiotropic effects that are used to treat diverse diseases such as asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and acute kidney transplant rejection. The most commonly used systemic glucocorticoids are hydrocortisone, prednisolone, methylprednisolone and dexamethasone. These glucocorticoids have good oral bioavailability and are eliminated mainly by hepatic metabolism and renal excretion of the metabolites. Plasma concentrations follow a biexponential pattern. Two-compartment models are used after intravenous administration, but one-compartment models are sufficient after oral administration.The effects of glucocorticoids are mediated by genomic and possibly nongenomic mechanisms. Genomic mechanisms include activation of the cytosolic glucocorticoid receptor that leads to activation or repression of protein synthesis, including cytokines, chemokines, inflammatory enzymes and adhesion molecules. Thus, inflammation and immune response mechanisms may be modified. Nongenomic mechanisms might play an additional role in glucocorticoid pulse therapy. Clinical efficacy depends on glucocorticoid pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Pharmacokinetic parameters such as the elimination half-life, and pharmacodynamic parameters such as the concentration producing the half-maximal effect, determine the duration and intensity of glucocorticoid effects. The special contribution of either of these can be distinguished with pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis. We performed simulations with a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model using T helper cell counts and endogenous cortisol as biomarkers for the effects of methylprednisolone. These simulations suggest that the clinical efficacy of low-dose glucocorticoid regimens might be increased with twice-daily glucocorticoid administration.

Microdialysis

Microdialysis is a probe-based sampling method, which, if linked to analytical devices, allows for the measurement of drug concentration profiles in selected tissues. During the last two decades, microdialysis has become increasingly popular for preclinical and clinical pharmacokinetic studies. The advantage of in vivo microdialysis over traditional methods relates to its ability to continuously sample the unbound drug fraction in the interstitial space fluid (ISF). This is of particular importance because the ISF may be regarded as the actual target compartment for many drugs, e.g. antimicrobial agents or other drugs mediating their action through surface receptors. In contrast, plasma concentrations are increasingly recognised as inadequately predicting tissue drug concentrations and therapeutic success in many patient populations. Thus, the minimally invasive microdialysis technique has evolved into an important tool for the direct assessment of drug concentrations at the site of drug delivery in virtually all tissues. In particular, concentrations of transdermally applied drugs, neurotransmitters, antibacterials, cytotoxic agents, hormones, large molecules such as cytokines and proteins, and many other compounds were described by means of microdialysis. The combined use of microdialysis with non-invasive imaging methods such as positron emission tomography and single photon emission tomography opened the window to exactly explore and describe the fate and pharmacokinetics of a drug in the body. Linking pharmacokinetic data from the ISF to pharmacodynamic information appears to be a straightforward approach to predicting drug action and therapeutic success, and may be used for decision making for adequate drug administration and dosing regimens. Hence, microdialysis is nowadays used in clinical studies to test new drug candidates that are in the pharmaceutical industry drug development pipeline.

Animal models of xenobiotic receptors in drug metabolism and diseases

Drug-metabolizing enzymes, including phase II conjugating enzymes, play an important role in both drug metabolism and human diseases. The genes that encode these enzymes and transporters are inducible by numerous xenobiotics and endobiotics and the inducibility shows clear species specificity. In the past several years, orphan nuclear receptors, such as PXR and CAR, have been established as species-specific "xenobiotic receptors" that regulate the expression of phase I and phase II enzymes and drug transporters. The creation of xenobiotic receptor transgenic and knockout mice has not only provided an opportunity to dissect the transcriptional control of drug metabolizing enzymes, but also offered a unique opportunity to study the xenobiotic receptor-mediated enzyme regulation in both drug metabolism and diseases. "Humanized" hPXR transgenic mice represent a major step forward in the creation and utilization of humanized rodent models for toxicological assessment that may aid in the development of safer drugs.

Pharmacokinetic aspects of biotechnology products

In recent years, biotechnologically derived peptide and protein-based drugs have developed into mainstream therapeutic agents. Peptide and protein drugs now constitute a substantial portion of the compounds under preclinical and clinical development in the global pharmaceutical industry. Pharmacokinetic and exposure/response evaluations for peptide and protein therapeutics are frequently complicated by their similarity to endogenous peptides and proteins as well as protein nutrients. The first challenge frequently comes from a lack of sophistication in various analytical techniques for the quantification of peptide and protein drugs in biological matrices. However, advancements in bioassays and immunoassays--along with a newer generation of mass spectrometry-based techniques--can often provide capabilities for both efficient and reliable detection. Selection of the most appropriate route of administration for biotech drugs requires comprehensive knowledge of their absorption characteristics beyond physicochemical properties, including chemical and metabolic stability at the absorption site, immunoreactivity, passage through biomembranes, and active uptake and exsorption processes. Various distribution properties dictate whether peptide and protein therapeutics can reach optimum target site exposure to exert the intended pharmacological response. This poses a potential problem, especially for large protein drugs, with their typically limited distribution space. Binding phenomena and receptor-mediated cellular uptake may further complicate this issue. Elimination processes--a critical determinant for the drug's systemic exposure--may follow a combination of numerous pathways, including renal and hepatic metabolism routes as well as generalized proteolysis and receptor-mediated endocytosis. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) correlations for peptide and protein-based drugs are frequently convoluted by their close interaction with endogenous substances and physiologic regulatory feedback mechanisms. Extensive use of pharmacokinetic and exposure/response concepts in all phases of drug development has in the past been identified as a crucial factor for the success of a scientifically driven, evidence-based, and thus accelerated drug development process. Thus, PK/PD concepts are likely to continue and expand their role as a fundamental factor in the successful development of biotechnologically derived drug products in the future.

Clinical Pharmacology

The dose of a drug is a major determinant of its safety, and establishing a safe dose of a novel drug is a prime objective during clinical development. The design of pre-marketing clinical trials precludes the representation of important subpopulations such as children, the elderly and people with co-morbidities. Therefore, postmarketing surveillance (PMS) activities are required to monitor the safety profile of drugs in real clinical practice. Furthermore, individual variations in pharmacogenetic profiles, the immune system, drug metabolic pathways and drug-drug interactions are also important factors in the occurrence of adverse drug reactions. Thus, the safety of a drug is a major clinical consideration before and after it is marketed. A multidisciplinary approach is required to enhance the safety profile of drugs at all stages of development, including PMS activities. Clinical pharmacology encompasses a range of disciplines and forms the backbone of drug safety consideration during clinical drug development. In this review we give an overview of the clinical drug development process and consider its limitations. We present a discussion of several aspects of clinical pharmacology and their application to enhancing drug safety. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling provides a method of predicting a clinically safe dose; consideration of drug pharmacokinetics in special populations may enhance safe therapeutics in a wider spectrum of patients, while pharmacogenetics provides the possibility of genotype-specific therapeutics. Pharmacovigilance activities are also discussed. Given the complex nature and unpredictability of type B reactions, PMS activities are crucial in managing the risks drugs pose to the general population. The various aspects of clinical pharmacology discussed make a strong case for this field as the backbone of optimising and promoting safe development and use of drugs.

Prediction of clinical responses in a simulated phase III trial of Crohn's patients administered the antisense phosphorothioate oligonucleotide ISIS 2302: comparison of proposed dosing regimens

ISIS 2302, an antisense phosphorothioate oligonucleotide (ODN) targeting human intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) mRNA, is currently being evaluated for treatment of patients with Crohn's disease. From data collected in phase II clinical studies with ISIS 2302, validated population pharmacokinetic and exposure-response models were developed and used to simulate the plasma exposure and clinical response results for a proposed phase III trial design involving 100 patients treated with active drug and 50 patients treated with placebo. Simulated results of 1000 replications of the trial were calculated for various proposed dosing regimens. Overall, the simulated results indicated that a fixed dose regimen (250-400 mg, depending on patient sex and total body weight) given three times weekly provides both desirable ISIS 2302 plasma exposure and a high rate of clinical response in this patient population. However, the simulated results also suggest that inclusion of a larger number of patients than projected may be necessary to provide a desirable probability of study success (i.e., >80%), regarding demonstration of statistically significant differences between the active treatment and placebo groups for the primary clinical response measure (CCR rate).