Performance of a guideline-recommended algorithm for prognostication of poor neurological outcome after cardiac arrest

Plasma proenkephalin A 119-159 and dipeptidyl peptidase 3 on admission after cardiac arrest help predict long-term neurological outcome

BACKGROUND

A large proportion of adult survivors of cardiac arrest have a poor neurological outcome. Guidelines recommend multimodal neuro-prognostication no earlier than 72-96 h after cardiac arrest. There is great interest in earlier prognostic markers, including very early markers at admission. The novel blood biomarkers proenkephalin A 119-159 (penKid), bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) and circulating dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (cDPP3) have not been previously investigated for the early prognosis of cardiac arrest survivors.

METHODS

This multicentre observational study included adult survivors of cardiac arrest admitted to intensive care at four Swedish intensive care units (ICUs) during 2016. Blood samples were collected at ICU admission and batch analysed. The association between admission plasma penKid, bio-ADM and cDPP3 and poor long-term neurological outcome, according to the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) scale, was assessed by binary logistic regression. Their prognostic performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 190 patients were included, of which 136 patients had suffered out-of-hospital and 54 patients in-hospital cardiac arrest. Poor long-term neurological outcome was associated with elevated admission plasma concentrations of penKid and cDPP3, but not with bio-ADM. The association for penKid, but not for cDPP3, remained after adjusting for clinical cardiac arrest variables with prognostic value (time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), initial rhythm, admission Glasgow coma scale (GCS) motor score and absence of pupillary reflexes). The prognostic performance of above mentioned clinical cardiac arrest variables alone was very good with an AUC of 0.90 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.86-0.95), but improved further with the addition of penKid resulting in an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97, p < 0.026). Plasma penKid and cDPP3 alone provided moderate long-term prognostic information with AUCs of 0.70 and 0.71, respectively.

CONCLUSION

After cardiac arrest, admission plasma levels of penKid and cDPP3, but not bio-ADM, predicted long-term neurological outcome. When added to clinical cardiac arrest variables, penKid further improved prognostic performance.

SSEP amplitude accurately predicts both good and poor neurological outcome early after cardiac arrest; a post-hoc analysis of the ProNeCA multicentre study

AIM

To assess if, in comatose resuscitated patients, the amplitude of the N20 wave (N20amp) of somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) can predict 6-months neurological outcome.

SETTING

Multicentre study in 13 Italian intensive care units.

METHODS

The N20amp in microvolts (μV) was measured at 12 h, 24 h, and 72 h from cardiac arrest, along with pupillary reflex (PLR) and a 30-min EEG classified according to the ACNS terminology. Sensitivity and false positive rate (FPR) of N20amp alone or in combination were calculated.

RESULTS

403 patients (age 69[58-68] years) were included. At 12 h, an N20amp >3 μV predicted good neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Categories [CPC] 1-2) with 61[50-72]% sensitivity and 11[6-18]% FPR. Combining it with a benign (continuous or nearly continuous) EEG increased sensitivity to 91[82-96]%. For poor outcome (CPC 3-5), an N20Amp ≤0.38 μV, ≤0.73 μV and ≤1.01 μV at 12 h, 24 h, and 72 h, respectively, had 0% FPR with sensitivity ranging from 61[51-69]% and 82[76-88]%. Sensitivity was higher than that of a bilaterally absent N20 at all time points. At 12 h and 24 h, a highly malignant (suppression or burst-suppression) EEG and bilaterally absent PLR achieved 0% FPR only when combined with SSEP. A combination of all three predictors yielded a 0[0-4]% FPR, with maximum sensitivity of 44[36-53]%.

CONCLUSION

At 12 h from arrest, a high N20Amp predicts good outcome with high sensitivity, especially when combined with benign EEG. At 12 h and 24 h from arrest a low-voltage N20amp has a high sensitivity and is more specific than EEG or PLR for predicting poor outcome.

European Resuscitation Council and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine guidelines 2021: post-resuscitation care

The European Resuscitation Council (ERC) and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) have collaborated to produce these post-resuscitation care guidelines for adults, which are based on the 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Science with Treatment Recommendations. The topics covered include the post-cardiac arrest syndrome, diagnosis of cause of cardiac arrest, control of oxygenation and ventilation, coronary reperfusion, haemodynamic monitoring and management, control of seizures, temperature control, general intensive care management, prognostication, long-term outcome, rehabilitation and organ donation.

European Resuscitation Council and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine Guidelines 2021: Post-resuscitation care

The European Resuscitation Council (ERC) and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) have collaborated to produce these post-resuscitation care guidelines for adults, which are based on the 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Science with Treatment Recommendations. The topics covered include the post-cardiac arrest syndrome, diagnosis of cause of cardiac arrest, control of oxygenation and ventilation, coronary reperfusion, haemodynamic monitoring and management, control of seizures, temperature control, general intensive care management, prognostication, long-term outcome, rehabilitation, and organ donation.

Expanding controlled donation after the circulatory determination of death: statement from an international collaborative

A decision to withdraw life-sustaining treatment (WLST) is derived by a conclusion that further treatment will not enable a patient to survive or will not produce a functional outcome with acceptable quality of life that the patient and the treating team regard as beneficial. Although many hospitalized patients die under such circumstances, controlled donation after the circulatory determination of death (cDCDD) programs have been developed only in a reduced number of countries. This International Collaborative Statement aims at expanding cDCDD in the world to help countries progress towards self-sufficiency in transplantation and offer more patients the opportunity of organ donation. The Statement addresses three fundamental aspects of the cDCDD pathway. First, it describes the process of determining a prognosis that justifies the WLST, a decision that should be prior to and independent of any consideration of organ donation and in which transplant professionals must not participate. Second, the Statement establishes the permanent cessation of circulation to the brain as the standard to determine death by circulatory criteria. Death may be declared after an elapsed observation period of 5 min without circulation to the brain, which confirms that the absence of circulation to the brain is permanent. Finally, the Statement highlights the value of perfusion repair for increasing the success of cDCDD organ transplantation. cDCDD protocols may utilize either in situ or ex situ perfusion consistent with the practice of each country. Methods to accomplish the in situ normothermic reperfusion of organs must preclude the restoration of brain perfusion to not invalidate the determination of death.

Predicting neurological outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with cumulative information; development and internal validation of an artificial neural network algorithm

Background

Prognostication of neurological outcome in patients who remain comatose after cardiac arrest resuscitation is complex. Clinical variables, as well as biomarkers of brain injury, cardiac injury, and systemic inflammation, all yield some prognostic value. We hypothesised that cumulative information obtained during the first three days of intensive care could produce a reliable model for predicting neurological outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) using artificial neural network (ANN) with and without biomarkers.

Methods

We performed a post hoc analysis of 932 patients from the Target Temperature Management trial. We focused on comatose patients at 24, 48, and 72 h post-cardiac arrest and excluded patients who were awake or deceased at these time points. 80% of the patients were allocated for model development (training set) and 20% for internal validation (test set). To investigate the prognostic potential of different levels of biomarkers (clinically available and research-grade), patients’ background information, and intensive care observation and treatment, we created three models for each time point: (1) clinical variables, (2) adding clinically accessible biomarkers, e.g., neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and (3) adding research-grade biomarkers, e.g., neurofilament light (NFL). Patient outcome was the dichotomised Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) at six months; a good outcome was defined as CPC 1–2 whilst a poor outcome was defined as CPC 3–5. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for all test sets.

Results

AUROC remained below 90% when using only clinical variables throughout the first three days in the ICU. Adding clinically accessible biomarkers such as NSE, AUROC increased from 82 to 94% (p < 0.01). The prognostic accuracy remained excellent from day 1 to day 3 with an AUROC at approximately 95% when adding research-grade biomarkers. The models which included NSE after 72 h and NFL on any of the three days had a low risk of false-positive predictions while retaining a low number of false-negative predictions.

Conclusions

In this exploratory study, ANNs provided good to excellent prognostic accuracy in predicting neurological outcome in comatose patients post OHCA. The models which included NSE after 72 h and NFL on all days showed promising prognostic performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-021-03505-9.

Does a combination of ≥2 abnormal tests vs. the ERC-ESICM stepwise algorithm improve prediction of poor neurological outcome after cardiac arrest? A post-hoc analysis of the ProNeCA multicentre study

BACKGROUND

Bilaterally absent pupillary light reflexes (PLR) or N20 waves of short-latency evoked potentials (SSEPs) are recommended by the 2015 ERC-ESICM guidelines as robust, first-line predictors of poor neurological outcome after cardiac arrest. However, recent evidence shows that the false positive rates (FPRs) of these tests may be higher than previously reported. We investigated if testing accuracy is improved when combining PLR/SSEPs with malignant electroencephalogram (EEG), oedema on brain computed tomography (CT), or early status myoclonus (SM).

METHODS

Post-hoc analysis of ProNeCA multicentre prognostication study. We compared the prognostic accuracy of the ERC-ESICM prognostication strategy vs. that of a new strategy combining ≥2 abnormal results from any of PLR, SSEPs, EEG, CT and SM. We also investigated if using alternative classifications for abnormal SSEPs (absent-pathological vs. bilaterally-absent N20) or malignant EEG (ACNS-defined suppression or burst-suppression vs. unreactive burst-suppression or status epilepticus) improved test sensitivity.

RESULTS

We assessed 210 adult comatose resuscitated patients of whom 164 (78%) had poor neurological outcome (CPC 3-5) at six months. FPRs and sensitivities of the ≥2 abnormal test strategy vs. the ERC-ESICM algorithm were 0[0-8]% vs. 7 [1-18]% and 49[41-57]% vs. 63[56-71]%, respectively (p < .0001). Using alternative SSEP/EEG definitions increased the number of patients with ≥2 concordant test results and the sensitivity of both strategies (67[59-74]% and 54[46-61]% respectively), with no loss of specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

In comatose resuscitated patients, a prognostication strategy combining ≥2 among PLR, SSEPs, EEG, CT and SM was more specific than the 2015 ERC-ESICM prognostication algorithm for predicting 6-month poor neurological outcome.

On predictions in critical care: The individual prognostication fallacy in elderly patients

Predicting the future course of critical conditions involves personal experience, heuristics and statistical models. Although these methods may perform well for some cases and population averages, they suffer from substantial shortcomings when applied to individual patients. The reasons include methodological problems of statistical modeling as well as limitations of cross-sectional data sampling. Accurate predictions for individual patients become crucial when they have to guide irreversible decision-making. This notably applies to triage situations in response to a lack of healthcare resources. We will discuss these issues and argue that analysing longitudinal data obtained from time-limited trials in intensive care can provide a more robust approach to individual prognostication.