Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

A water quality model for regional stream assessment and conservation strategy development

Non-point-source (NPS) pollution remains the primary source of stream impairment in the United States. Many problems such as eutrophication, sedimentation, and hypoxia are linked with NPS pollution which reduces the water quality for aquatic and terrestrial organisms. Increasingly, NPS pollution models have been used for landscape-scale pollution assessment and conservation strategy development. Our modeling approach functions at a scale between simple landscape-level assessments and complex, data-intensive modeling by providing a rapid, landscape-scale geographic information system (GIS) model with minimal data requirements and widespread applicability. Our model relies on curve numbers, literature-derived pollution concentrations, and land status to evaluate total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and suspended solids (SS) at the reach scale. Model testing in the Chesapeake Bay watershed indicated that predicted distributions of water quality classes were realistic at the reach scale, but precise estimates of pollution concentrations at the local scale can have errors. Application of our model in the tributary watersheds along Lake Ontario suggested that it is useful to managers in watershed planning by rapidly providing important information about NPS pollution conditions in areas where large data gaps exist, comparisons among stream reaches across numerous watersheds are required, or regional assessments are sought.

A spatially explicit framework for quantifying downstream hydrologic conditions

Continued improvements in spatial datasets and hydrological modeling algorithms within Geographic Information Systems (GISs) have enhanced opportunities for watershed analysis. With more detailed hydrology layers and watershed delineation techniques, we can now better represent and model landscape to water quality relationships. Two challenges in modeling these relationships are selecting the appropriate spatial scale of watersheds for the receiving stream segment, and handling the network or pass-through issues of connected watersheds. This paper addresses these two important issues for enhancing cumulative watershed capabilities in GIS. Our modeling framework focuses on the delineation of stream-segment-level watershed boundaries for 1:24,000 scale hydrology, in combination with a topological network model. The result is a spatially explicit, vector-based, spatially cumulative watershed modeling framework for quantifying watershed conditions to aid in restoration. We demonstrate the new insights available from this modeling framework in a cumulative mining index for the management of aquatic resources in a West Virginia watershed.

Modeling watershed-scale effectiveness of agricultural best management practices to reduce phosphorus loading

Planners advocate best management practices (BMPs) to reduce loss of sediment and nutrients in agricultural areas. However, the scientific community lacks tools that use readily available data to investigate the relationships between BMPs and their spatial locations and water quality. In rural, humid regions where runoff is associated with saturation-excess processes from variable source areas (VSAs), BMPs are potentially most effective when they are located in areas that produce the majority of the runoff. Thus, two critical elements necessary to predict the water quality impact of BMPs include correct identification of VSAs and accurate predictions of nutrient reduction due to particular BMPs. The objective of this research was to determine the effectiveness of BMPs using the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, which captures the spatial and temporal evolutions of VSAs in the landscape. Data from a long-term monitoring campaign on a 164-ha farm in the New York City source watersheds in the Catskills Mountains of New York state were used to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of BMPs. The data spanned an 11-year period over which a suite of BMPs, including a nutrient management plan, riparian buffers, filter strips and fencing, was installed to reduce phosphorus (P) loading. Despite its simplicity, VSLF predicted the spatial distribution of runoff producing areas well. Dissolved P reductions were simulated well by using calibrated reduction factors for various BMPs in the VSLF model. Total P losses decreased only after cattle crossings were installed in the creek. The results demonstrated that BMPs, when sited with respect to VSAs, reduce P loss from agricultural watersheds, providing useful information for targeted water quality management.

The impact of new developments on river water quality from an integrated system modelling perspective

New housing areas are a ubiquitous feature of modern life in the developing and developed world alike built in response to rising social, demographic and economic pressures. Inevitably, these new developments will have an impact on the environment around them. Empirical evidence confirms the close relationship between urbanisation and ambient water quality. However, what is lacking so far is a detailed and more generalised analysis of environmental impact at a relatively small scale. The aim of this paper is to quantify the impact of new developments on river water quality within an integrated system modelling perspective. To conduct the impact analyses, an existing integrated urban wastewater model was used to predict water flow and quality in the sewer system, treatment plant and receiving water body. The impact on combined sewer overflow (CSO) discharges, treatment plant effluent, and within the river at various reaches is analysed by 'locating' a new development on a semi-hypothetical urban catchment. River water quality is used as feedback to constrain the scale of the new development within different thresholds in compliance with water quality standards. Further, the regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) method is applied to reveal the parameters with the greatest impact on water quality. These analyses will help to inform town planners and water specialists who advise them, how to minimise the impact of such developments given the specific context.

Assessment of runoff response to landscape changes in the San Pedro subbasin (Nayarit, Mexico) using remote sensing data and GIS

Results on runoff estimates as a response to land-use and land-cover changes are presented. We used remote sensing and GIS techniques with rainfall time-series data, spatial ancillary information, and the curve-number method (NRCS-CN) to assess the runoff response in the San Pedro subbasin. Thematic maps with eight land-cover classes derived from satellite imagery classification (1973, 1990, and 2000) and hydrologic soil-group maps were used as the input for the runoff calculation. About 20% to 25% of the subbasin landscape has changed since 1973, mainly as consequence of the growth of agriculture. Forest is the main cover, although further analyses indicate that forest is degrading from good to poor conditions when evaluated as a function of the spectral response. Soils with low infiltration rates, classified as the hydrological soil-group "C", were dominant in the area (52%). The overlaying of all the hydrological soil groups with the land-use map produced a total of 43 hydro-group and land-use categories for which runoff was calculated using the curve-number method. Estimates of total runoff volumes (26 x 10(6) m3) were similar for the three dates analyzed in spite of landscape changes, but there were temporal variations among the hydro-group and land-use categories as a consequence. Changes are causing the rise of covers with high runoff potential and the increase of runoff depth is expected, but it can be reversed by different management of subbasin hydro-groups and land-use units.

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.

Long-term impacts of land-use change on non-point source pollutant loads for the St. Louis metropolitan area, USA

A land-use-change simulation model (LEAM) and a non-point-source (NPS) water quality model (L-THIA) were closely coupled as LEAMwq in order to determine the long-term implications of various degree of urbanization on NPS total nitrogen (TN), total suspended particles (TSP), and total phosphorus (TP) loads. A future land-use projection in the St. Louis metropolitan area from 2005 to 2030 using three economic growth scenarios (base, low, and high) and a long-term precipitation dataset were used to predict the mean annual surface runoff and mean annual NPS pollutant loads in the region. Results show mean annual TN increases of 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.14% by 2030 compared to 2000 under the base, high, and low scenarios, respectively. TSP and TP showed similar trends with different magnitudes. Corresponding changes in annual mean surface runoff were shown to be lower than expected, which might be attributed to the small-scale conversion pattern of land uses. In the most dramatic change (high growth) scenario, the runoff would increase across time but at varying rates, and temporal pollutant loads would result in a more complicated pattern than in the other scenarios. This is attributed to the complex interactions between event mean concentrations of pollutants and the magnitude of changes in land-use acre-ages. By integrating L-THIA with LEAM, LEAMwq was found to be a useful planning tool to illustrate in a quick and simple manner how future water quality is connected to decision-making on future land-use change.

Identification of land-cover changes through image processing and associated impacts on water reservoir conditions

A temporal assessment of land-cover changes of the province Beykoz in Istanbul has been documented in this article. The study focuses on the acquisition and analysis of LANDSAT 5 TM images that reflect the drastic land-cover changes between the years 1984 and 2001 utilizing aerial photographs, orthophoto maps, standard topographic maps, and ground truth measurements. The status of the province, including its surrounding villages, were examined together with more specialized maps showing only the city center and part of the province that lies within the watershed of the Elmali Drinking Water Reservoir. The land distribution profiles were also calculated for each of the images to help authorities and decision-makers to better understand the main causes of such remarkable changes and to inform them of the changing quality conditions of the reservoir. Rapid, uncontrolled, and illegal urbanization accompanied by insufficient infrastructure has caused degradation of forests and barren lands in the province, especially within the past two decades. The proximity of the province to the reservoir's watershed, downtown Istanbul, and the transportation network has accelerated the land-cover changes whose adverse impacts on the reservoir water quality are sensed. It is intended that the data gathered and processed in this study will provide a basis for future sustainable urban planning and management activities.

Public health effects of inadequately managed stormwater runoff

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the scale of the public health risk from stormwater runoff caused by urbanization.

METHODS

We compiled turbidity data for municipal treated drinking water as an indication of potential risk in selected US cities and compared estimated costs of waterborne disease and preventive measures.

RESULTS

Turbidity levels in other US cities were similar to those linked to illnesses in Milwaukee, Wis, and Philadelphia, Pa. The estimated annual cost of waterborne illness is comparable to the long-term capital investment needed for improved drinking water treatment and stormwater management.

CONCLUSIONS

Although additional data on cost and effectiveness are needed, stormwater management to minimize runoff and associated pollution appears to make sense for protecting public health at the least cost.