Combination prevention: new hope for stopping the epidemic

HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model

Background

The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence.

Methods and Findings

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence.

We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data.

We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence.

Conclusions

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.

High HIV incidence among persons who inject drugs in Pakistan: greater risk with needle sharing and injecting frequently among the homeless

Background

The incidence of HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWIDU) has fallen in many nations, likely due to successes of clean needle/syringe exchange and substance abuse treatment and service programs. However in Pakistan, prevalence rates for PWID have risen dramatically. In several cities, prevalence exceeded 20% by 2009 compared to a 2003 baseline of just 0.5%. However, no cohort study of PWID has ever been conducted.

Methods

We enrolled a cohort of 636 HIV seronegative PWID registered with three drop-in centers that focus on risk reduction and basic social services in Karachi. Recruitment began in 2009 (March to June) and PWID were followed for two years. We measured incidence rates and risk factors associated with HIV seroconversion.

Results

Incidence of HIV was 12.4 per 100 person-years (95% exact Poisson confidence interval [CI]: 10.3–14.9). We followed 474 of 636 HIV seronegative persons (74.5%) for two years, an annual loss to follow-up of <13 per 100 person years. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, HIV seroconversion was associated with non-Muslim religion (Adjusted risk ratio [ARR] = 1.7, 95%CI:1.4, 2.7, p = 0.03), sharing of syringes (ARR = 2.3, 95%CI:1.5, 3.3, p<0.0001), being homeless (ARR = 1.7, 95%CI:1.1, 2.5, p = 0.009), and daily injection of drugs (ARR = 1.1, 95%CI:1.0, 1.3, p = 0.04).

Conclusions

Even though all members of the cohort of PWID were attending risk reduction programs, the HIV incidence rate was very high in Karachi from 2009–2011. The project budget was low, yet we were able to retain three-quarters of the population over two years. Absence of opiate substitution therapy and incomplete needle/syringe exchange coverage undermines success in HIV risk reduction.

The global HIV epidemic: current status and challenges

Three decades after the first reported cases of AIDS we have within our reach sufficient evidence to substantially alter the HIV epidemic at a country level regardless of mode of transmission of HIV. There are a growing number of countries demonstrating control of the epidemic. Human rights violations and/or legislation relating to sexual orientation, status of minors, injecting drug use and sex work together with stigma and discrimination remain key barriers to knowledge of HIV status and access to appropriate services. The use of anti-retrovirals prophylactically to reduce sexual and vertical transmission and systemically to treat infected infants and adults is central to the optimism in responses to the epidemic. In the current fiscal climate careful thought needs to be given to how to efficiently optimise combinations of what is available to have the biggest impact in the context of limited human and infrastructure resources.

Assessing the cost effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in the US

About 50,000 people are infected with HIV in the US each year and this number has remained virtually the same for the past decade. Yet, in the last few years, evidence from several multinational randomized clinical trials has shown that the provision of antiretroviral drug to uninfected persons (i.e. pre-exposure prophylaxis) reduces the incidence of HIV by about 50 %. However, evidence from cost-effectiveness studies conducted in the US yield widely varying estimates of the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and this variation reflects the substantial uncertainty surrounding the determinants of HIV transmission (e.g. adherence rates to prophylactic medications, the average number of sexual partners, the number and types of sexual acts, the viral load of infected partners, and the proportion of contacts where condoms are used), as well as different approaches to translating a reduction in HIV cases into an estimate of the increase in the number of QALYs.

An expanded behavioral paradigm for prevention and treatment of HIV-1 infection

This article addresses behavioral and social research priorities for prevention and treatment of HIV-1 infection. The approach used to define these priorities is based on 3 premises: (1) Behavioral interventions for prevention and treatment are necessary but not sufficient for producing reductions in transmission or advances in treatment; the same is true of biomedical interventions, and by themselves, they cannot maximally impact the health of communities. (2) Combination prevention and treatment strategies should include optimal combinations of behavioral and biomedical strategies but also must include the varieties of the behaviors of individuals, communities, and systems needed to ensure effective treatment and prevention. (3) And it is no longer useful, given scientific advances in understanding how treatment contributes to prevention, to discuss prevention without incorporating treatment and vice versa. This redefinition of behavioral approaches in combination prevention and treatment provides a new paradigm for defining behavioral research in HIV-1 disease. No longer is it sufficient to focus on single behavior (eg, high-risk sexual behavior, adherence to antiretroviral medications) of individuals in a vertical way. Rather, the behavioral agenda not only need to expand to encompass traditional investigations of single behaviors but also need to include the behavior of many actors and systems that are essential in facilitating reductions in transmission and improvements in treatment outcomes. In addition, there is the need for expanded implementation research agenda to encompass the study of methods to achieve high coverage, acceptability, and effectiveness of available menu of interventions.

Can combination prevention strategies reduce HIV transmission in generalized epidemic settings in Africa? The HPTN 071 (PopART) study plan in South Africa and Zambia

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) is conducting the HPTN 071 (PopART) study in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa with support from a consortium of funders. HPTN 071 (PopART) is a community-randomized trial of a combination prevention strategy to reduce HIV incidence in the context of the generalized epidemic of southern Africa. The full PopART intervention strategy is anchored in home-based HIV testing and facilitated linkage of HIV-infected persons to care through community health workers and universal antiretroviral therapy for seropositive persons regardless of CD4+ cell count or HIV viral load. To further reduce the risk of HIV acquisition among uninfected individuals, the study aims to expand voluntary medical male circumcision, diagnosis and treatment of sexually transmitted infections, behavioral counseling, and condom distribution. The full PopART intervention strategy also incorporates promotion of other interventions designed to reduce HIV and tuberculosis transmission, including optimization of the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and enhanced individual and public health tuberculosis services. Success for the PopART strategy depends on the ability to increase coverage for the study interventions whose uptake is a necessary antecedent to a prevention effect. Processes will be measured to assess the degree of penetration of the interventions into the communities. A randomly sampled population cohort from each community will be used to measure the impact of the PopART strategy on HIV incidence over 3 years. We describe the strategy being tested and progress to date in the HPTN 071 (PopART) study.

Sexual healthcare preferences among gay and bisexual men: a qualitative study in San Francisco, California

Background

Research on gay and other men who have sex with men's (G/MSM) preferences for sexual healthcare services focuses largely on HIV testing and to some extent on sexually transmitted infections (STI). This research illustrates the frequency and location of where G/MSM interface with the healthcare system, but it does not speak to why men seek care in those locations. As HIV and STI prevention strategies evolve, evidence about G/MSM's motivations and decision-making can inform future plans to optimize models of HIV/STI prevention and primary care.

Methods

We conducted a phenomenological study of gay men's sexual health seeking experiences, which included 32 in-depth interviews with gay and bisexual men. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and entered into Atlas.ti. We conducted a Framework Analysis.

Findings

We identified a continuum of sexual healthcare seeking practices and their associated drivers. Men differed in their preferences for separating sexual healthcare from other forms of healthcare (“fragmentation”) versus combining all care into one location (“consolidation”). Fragmentation drivers included: fear of being monitored by insurance companies, a desire to seek non-judgmental providers with expertise in sexual health, a desire for rapid HIV testing, perceiving sexual health services as more convenient than primary care services, and a lack of healthcare coverage. Consolidation drivers included: a comfortable and trusting relationship with a provider, a desire for one provider to oversee overall health and those with access to public or private health insurance.

Conclusions

Men in this study were likely to separate sexual healthcare from primary care. Based on this finding, we recommend placing new combination HIV/STI prevention interventions within sexual health clinics. Furthermore, given the evolution of the financing and delivery of healthcare services and in HIV prevention, policymakers and clinicians should consider including more primary care services within sexual healthcare settings.

Awareness of and willingness to use oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples: a cross-sectional survey in Xinjiang, China

Objectives

We aimed to investigate the awareness of and willingness to use oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention among HIV-negative partners in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Xinjiang, China and determine factors that predict willingness to use oral PrEP.

Methods

Between November 2009 and December 2010, a cross-sectional survey was carried out among 351 HIV-negative partners in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples from three cities in Xinjiang, China. Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire to assess their awareness of and willingness to use oral PrEP. Additionally, blood samples were collected to test for HIV infection. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of willingness to use oral PrEP.

Results

Only 10 participants (2.8%) reported having heard of PrEP, and only two reported ever using PrEP. However, 297 (84.6%) reported that they were willing to use oral PrEP if it was proven to be both safe and effective. Results of multivariate analysis revealed the following independent predictors of willingness to use oral PrEP: monthly household income (adjusted odds ratio = 2.78, <1000 RMB vs. ≥1000 RMB, 95% confidence interval: 1.36–5.69), perceived likelihood of contracting HIV from HIV-positive partner (adjusted odds ratio = 2.63, likely vs. unlikely, 95% confidence interval: 1.12–6.19), and worrying about being discriminated against by others due to oral PrEP use (adjusted odds ratio  = 9.43, No vs. Yes, 95% confidence interval: 3.78–23.50).

Conclusions

Our results showed HIV-negative partners in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples in China had low awareness of oral PrEP but high willingness to use oral PrEP for HIV prevention. Cost of oral PrEP should be taken into consideration in future PrEP prevention strategy. In addition, efforts should be made to reduce stigma attached to oral PrEP use, which may increase its acceptability among potential users.