A model to determine 3-month mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

A modified MELD model for Chinese pre-ACLF and ACLF patients and it reveals poor prognosis in pre-ACLF patients

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is one of the most deadly, prevalent, and costly diseases in Asia. However, no prognostic model has been developed that is based specifically on data gathered from Asian patients with ACLF. The aim of the present study was to quantify the survival time of ACLF among Asians and to develop a prognostic model to estimate the probability of death related to ACLF.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study to analyze clinical data from 857 patients with ACLF/pre-ACLF who did not undergo liver transplantation. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to estimate survival rates and survival affected factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the models for predicting early mortality.

Results

The mortality rates among patients with pre-ACLF at 12 weeks and 24 weeks after diagnosis were 30.5% and 33.2%, respectively. The mortality rates among patients with early-stage ACLF at 12 weeks and 24 weeks after diagnosis were 33.9% and 37.1%, respectively. The difference in survival between pre-ACLF patients and patients in the early stage of ACLF was not statistically significant. The prognostic model identified 5 independent factors significantly associated with survival among patients with ACLF and pre-ACLF: the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score; age, hepatic encephalopathy; triglyceride level and platelet count.

Conclusion

The findings of the present study suggest that the Chinese diagnostic criteria of ACLF might be broadened, thus enabling implementation of a novel model to predict ACLF-related death after comprehensive medical treatment.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is a distinct syndrome that develops in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for an acute decompensation (AD) and organ failure are at risk for imminent death and considered to have acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, there are no established diagnostic criteria for ACLF, so little is known about its development and progression. We aimed to identify diagnostic criteria of ACLF and describe the development of this syndrome in European patients with AD.

METHODS

We collected data from 1343 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and AD from February to September 2011 at 29 liver units in 8 European countries. We used the organ failure and mortality data to define ACLF grades, assess mortality, and identify differences between ACLF and AD. We established diagnostic criteria for ACLF based on analyses of patients with organ failure (defined by the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment [CLIF-SOFA] score) and high 28-day mortality rate (>15%).

RESULTS

Of the patients assessed, 303 had ACLF when the study began, 112 developed ACLF, and 928 did not have ACLF. The 28-day mortality rate among patients who had ACLF when the study began was 33.9%, among those who developed ACLF was 29.7%, and among those who did not have ACLF was 1.9%. Patients with ACLF were younger and more frequently alcoholic, had more associated bacterial infections, and had higher numbers of leukocytes and higher plasma levels of C-reactive protein than patients without ACLF (P < .001). Higher CLIF-SOFA scores and leukocyte counts were independent predictors of mortality in patients with ACLF. In patients without a prior history of AD, ACLF was unexpectedly characterized by higher numbers of organ failures, leukocyte count, and mortality compared with ACLF in patients with a prior history of AD.

CONCLUSIONS

We analyzed data from patients with cirrhosis and AD to establish diagnostic criteria for ACLF and showed that it is distinct from AD, based not only on the presence of organ failure(s) and high mortality rate but also on age, precipitating events, and systemic inflammation. ACLF mortality is associated with loss of organ function and high leukocyte counts. ACLF is especially severe in patients with no prior history of AD.

Increased CD163 expression is associated with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

AIM

To assess CD163 expression in plasma and peripheral blood and analyze its association with disease in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) patients.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted from January 1, 2011 to January 1, 2012. Forty patients with ACHBLF (mean age 44.48 ± 12.28 years, range 18-69 years), 40 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) (mean age 39.45 ± 12.22 years, range 21-57 years) and 20 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (mean age 38.35 ± 11.97 years, range 28-60 years) were included in this study. Flow cytometry was used to analyze the frequency of CD163+ peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and surface protein expression of CD163. Real-time transcription-polymerase chain reaction was performed to assess relative CD163 mRNA levels in PBMCs. Plasma soluble CD163 (sCD163) levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Clinical variables were also recorded. Comparisons between groups were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis H test and Mann-Whitney U test. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 15.0 software and a P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Flow cytometry showed that the population of CD163+ PBMCs was significantly greater in ACHBLF patients than in CHB patients and healthy controls (47.9645% ± 17.1542%, 32.0975% ± 11.0215% vs 17.9460% ± 6.3618%, P < 0.0001). However, there were no significant differences in mean fluorescence intensity of CD163+ PBMCs within the three groups (27.4975 ± 11.3731, 25.8140 ± 10.0649 vs 20.5050 ± 6.2437, P = 0.0514). CD163 mRNA expression in ACHBLF patients was significantly increased compared with CHB patients and healthy controls (1.41 × 10⁻² ± 2.18 × 10⁻², 5.10 × 10⁻³ ± 3.61 × 10⁻³ vs 37.0 × 10⁻⁴ ± 3.55 × 10⁻⁴, P = 0.02). Plasma sCD163 levels in patients with ACHBLF were significantly increased compared with CHB patients and healthy controls (4706.2175 ± 1681.1096 ng/mL, 1089.7160 ± 736.8395 ng/mL vs 435.9562 ± 440.8329 ng/mL, P < 0.0001). In ACHBLF patients, plasma sCD163 levels were significantly positively associated with model for end-stage liver disease scores (r = 0.5075, P = 0.008), hepatitis B virus-DNA (r = 0.6827, P < 0.0001), and negatively associated with prothrombin activity (r = -0.3348, P = 0.0347), but had no correlation with total bilirubin (r = 0.2551, P = 0.1122). Furthermore, sCD163 was obviously elevated in non-surviving patients compared with surviving patients with ACHBLF (5344.9080 ± 1589.5199 ng/mL vs 3641.7333 ± 1264.5228 ng/mL, P = 0.0321).

CONCLUSION

CD163 and sCD163 may be related to disease severity and prognosis in ACHBLF patients.

A model to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure using artificial neural network

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring was initiated using traditional statistical technique by assuming a linear relationship between clinical features, but most phenomena in a clinical situation are not linearly related. The aim of this study was to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on an individual patient level using an artificial neural network (ANN) system. The ANN model was built using data from 402 consecutive patients with ACHBLF. It was trained to predict 3-month mortality by the data of 280 patients and validated by the remaining 122 patients. The area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated for ANN and MELD-based scoring systems. The following variables age (P < 0.001), prothrombin activity (P < 0.001), serum sodium (P < 0.001), total bilirubin (P = 0.015), hepatitis B e antigen positivity rate (P < 0.001) and haemoglobin (P < 0.001) were significantly related to the prognosis of ACHBLF and were selected to build the ANN. The ANN performed significantly better than MELD-based scoring systems both in the training cohort (AUROC = 0.869 vs 0.667, 0.591, 0.643, 0.571 and 0.577; P < 0.001, respectively) and in the validation cohort (AUROC = 0.765 vs 0.599, 0.563, 0.601, 0.521 and 0.540; P ≤ 0.006, respectively). Thus, the ANN model was shown to be more accurate in predicting 3-month mortality of ACHBLF than MELD-based scoring systems.

Management of acute hepatitis B and reactivation of hepatitis B

The natural course of hepatitis B virus infection and the resulting hepatic injury is determined by the degree of virus replication and the intensity of host immune response. Upon exposure to hepatitis B virus (HBV), individuals with a vigorous and broad immune response develop acute self-limited infection, which may result in acute hepatitis. However, with stringent testing for HBV and universal precautions, acute HBV is rather rare. Reactivation of HBV most often presents as acute hepatitis B (AVH-B) and clinically, it is difficult to differentiate AVH-B from reactivation of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and it requires a high index of suspicion. In the presence of high HBV DNA (>2 × 10(4) IU/ml) underlying liver disease should be investigated by liver biopsy, endoscopy and/or imaging. The degree of liver failure often depends on the severity of acute insult and the stage of underlying chronic liver disease. Mutations in the HBV genome, immunosuppressive therapy and viral or drug induced injury are common causes of reactivation. As most patients with AVH-B resolve the infection spontaneously, antiviral therapy is not indicated in them. However, the use of a potent oral nucleoside(tide) analogue is necessary as soon as possible in patients with CHB reactivation. Liver transplantation should be considered in patients who develop liver failure secondary to severe acute exacerbation. If this is not feasible, supportive therapy with the addition of granulocyte colony stimulating factor (GCSF) therapy could be beneficial.

A systematic review on prognostic indicators of acute on chronic liver failure and their predictive value for mortality

BACKGROUND

An early and proper diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF), together with the identification of indicators associated with disease severity is critical for outcome prediction and therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically identify and summarize prognostic indicators for patients with ACLF and to evaluate the predictive value of these indicators.

METHODS

Embase and Ovid-Medline were searched for English-language articles. The search criteria focused on identifying clinical trials and observational studies reporting on indicators used for prediction of mortality in patients with ACLF.

RESULTS

Of 2382 studies identified, 19 were included for detailed analysis. Thirteen different definitions of ACLF were found. The main differences were related to acute deterioration in liver function, coagulopathy and hyperbilirubinaemia/jaundice. Seventy three prognostic indicators and their association with mortality were extracted and categorized into seven categories: general markers (n = 13), viral markers (n = 6), bio-markers (n = 22), hemodynamics (n = 1), morphology/histology (n = 17), scoring systems (n = 10) and treatments (n = 4).

CONCLUSIONS

The ambiguity and variability in the definition of ACLF and in its predictive indicators hampers comparability among studies. There is a need for a single uniform definition of ACLF. Also absence of a gold standard is an obstacle to render one indicator superior to another. The age, hepatic encephalopathy, model for end-stage liver disease score, total bilirubin and International normalized ratio (prothrombin time) appeared to be promising candidates for evaluation in future studies. The result of this review may be useful as a starting point in developing a standard list of indicators for clinical outcome that concur with the clinicians' subjective views on prognosis in ACLF.

Dynamic changes of lipopolysaccharide levels in different phases of acute on chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Background

High serum levels of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) with LPS-MD-2/TLR4 complex activated NF-kb and cytokine cause hepatic necrosis in animal models. We investigated the dynamic changes of LPS levels in patients with acute on chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF).

Methods

We enrolled ACHBLF patients for a 12-week study. Patients’ LPS levels were measured along with 10 healthy controls. Patients on supportive care and recovered without intervention(s) were analyzed. Patients’ LPS levels during the disease progression phase, peak phase, and remission phase were compared with healthy controls.

Results

Among 30 patients enrolled, 25 who received interventions or expired during the study period were excluded from the analysis, five patients on supportive care who completed the study were analyzed. Significant abnormal distributions of LPS levels were observed in patients in different phases (0.0168±0.0101 in progression phase; 0.0960±0.0680 in peak phase; 0.0249±0.0365 in remission phase; and 0.0201±0.0146 in controls; respectively, p<0.05). The highest level of LPS was in the peak phase and significantly elevated when compared to controls (0.0201±0.0146 vs. 0.0960±0.0680, p = 0.007). There were no statistically significant differences in LPS levels between healthy controls and subjects in the progression phase or remission phase. Dynamic changes of LPS were correlated with MELD-Na in the progression phase (p = 0.01, R = 0.876) and in the peak phase (p = 0.000, R = −1.00).

Conclusions

Significant abnormal distributions of LPS levels were observed in ACHBLF with the highest level in the peak phase. The dynamic changes of LPS were correlated with disease severity and suggested LPS causing secondary hepatic injury.

Different models in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Effective assessing the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease is always challenging. This study aimed to investigate the accuracy of different models in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated survival of a cohort of patients with at least 3-month follow up. The receiver-operating-characteristic curves (ROC) were drawn for Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification, King's College Hospital (KCH) criteria, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD combined with serum sodium (Na) concentration (MELDNa), integrated MELD (iMELD) and logistic regression model (LRM).

RESULTS

Of the 273 eligible patients, 152 patients (55.7%) died within 3-month follow up. In cirrhotic patients (n = 101), the AUCs of LRM (0.851), MELDNa (0.849), iMELD (0.845) and MELD (0.840) were all significantly higher than those of KCH criteria (0.642) and CTP (0.625) (all p < 0.05), while the differences among LRM, MELD, MELDNa and iMELD were not significant, and the most predictive cutoff value was 0.5176 for LRM, 30 for MELDNa, 47.87 for iMELD and 29 for MELD, respectively. In non-cirrhotic patients (n = 172), the AUC of LRM (0.897) was significantly higher than that of MELDNa (0.776), iMELD (0.768), MELD (0.758), KCH criteria (0.647) and CTP (0.629), respectively (all p < 0.05), and the most predictive cutoff value for LRM was -0.3264.

CONCLUSIONS

LRM, MELD, MELDNa and iMELD are with similar accuracy in predicting the shortterm prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients with liver cirrhosis, while LRM is superior to MELD, MELDNa and iMELD in predicting the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients without liver cirrhosis.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure in chronic hepatitis B

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is most commonly caused by acute severe exacerbation of CHB. The pathophysiology of ACLF in CHB is still poorly understood. Despite the identification of important predisposing factors and prognostic markers, ACLF in CHB remains a disease associated with high mortality. The majority of studies using nucleoside analog therapy did not show any significant improvement in survival, although larger prospective studies are needed. Liver transplantation is the definitive treatment for ACLF in CHB. The challenge ahead would be prognosticating cases with favorable or unfavorable outcomes in order to streamline patients for early transplantation or for medical therapy.

A Novel prognostic scoring system to predict 3-month mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in hepatitis B: a retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

The present study was done to establish an objective, sensitive prognostic scoring system and to determine the applicability of this model in predicting the 3-month mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in hepatitis B (ACLFB).

METHODS

We developed a novel prognostic scoring system, calculated from six clinical indices including serum total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, serum creatinine, hepatic encephalopathy, infections, and the depth of ascites from 499 patients with ACLFB. Differences in the sensitivity, specificity, and practicality of a Novel prognostic scoring system and the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) were analyzed.

RESULTS

The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for the Novel scoring systems and MELD scoring systems were 0.967 (95% CI, 0.956-0.977) and 0.900 (95% CI, 0.878-0.922), respectively. The analysis of the ROC curve indicated that the Novel scoring systems were an exact, pertinent, and objective prognostic model with greater accuracy than the MELD. In the Novel scoring systems, the survival rate of these patients whose scores ranged from 2 to 6 was 98.80%, while for those whose scores point at 7 and 15, the mortality rates were 8.70% (2/23) and 95.45% (21/22), respectively, and the mortality rate of these patients whose scores were 16 and above was 100.00%. However, in the MELD prognostic scoring systems, there were no score ranges with 100.00% survival rate.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed an objective, pertinent, and sensitive prognostic scoring system that predicted the 3-month mortality of patients with ACLFB with greater accuracy than the MELD.

Expression of human glucocorticoid receptor in T lymphocytes in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

BACKGROUND

Glucocorticoid receptor (GR) participates in the pathogenesis of liver inflammation. However, the potential role of GR in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is still obscure.

AIM

This present study was aimed to determine peripheral GR expression in ACHBLF patients.

METHODS

Forty patients with ACHBLF, 20 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 16 healthy controls were included in this retrospectively study. Flow cytometry was used to determine the peripheral expression of GR + T lymphocytes. Semi-quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed for assessing relative mRNA levels of GR alpha and beta isoforms in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Serum cortisol level was evaluated using radioimmunoassay.

RESULTS

The serum cortisol level and the percentage of GR + T lymphocytes in ACHBLF patients were significantly decreased compared with CHB patients and healthy controls. However, there were no significant differences in mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) of GR + T lymphocytes within three groups. The relative GR alpha mRNA expression in ACHBLF patients was significant decreased compared with healthy controls. However, the relative GR beta mRNA expression in ACHBLF patients was significantly increased compared with CHB patients and healthy controls. In ACHBLF patients, the percentage of GR + T lymphocyte was significantly positively associated with relative GR alpha expression, prothrombin activity, and HBV DNA level, but negatively correlated with serum cortisol level and MELD score. Furthermore, the percentage of GR + T lymphocytes was also obviously elevated in survivors than non-survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

It was strongly suggested that GR play an important role in the pathogenesis of ACHBLF.