Phase II Trials in Drug Development and Adaptive Trial Design

Bayesian enhancement two-stage design with error control for phase II clinical trials

Phase II clinical trials make a critical decision of go or no-go to a subsequent phase III studies. A considerable proportion of promising drugs identified in phase II trials fail the confirmative efficacy test in phase III. Recognizing the low posterior probabilities of H₁ when accepting the drug under Simon's two-stage design, the Bayesian enhancement two-stage (BET) design is proposed to strengthen the passing criterion. Under the BET design, the lengths of highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, posterior probabilities of H₀ and H₁ are computed to calibrate the design parameters, aiming to improve the stability of the trial characteristics and strengthen the evidence for proceeding the drug development forward. However, from a practical perspective, the HPD interval length lacks transparency and interpretability. To circumvent this problem, we propose the BET design with error control (BETEC) by replacing the HPD interval length with the posterior error rate. The BETEC design can achieve a balance between the posterior false positive rate and false negative rate and, more importantly, it has an intuitive and clear interpretation. We compare our method with the BET design and Simon's design through extensive simulation studies. As an illustration, we further apply BETEC to two recent clinical trials, and investigate its performance in comparison with other competitive designs. Being both efficient and intuitive, the BETEC design can serve as an alternative toolbox for implementing phase II single-arm trials.

Potential strategies for combating COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019, also known as COVID-19, is caused by a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2. The infection has now catapulted into a full-blown pandemic across the world, which has affected more than 2 million people and has led to approximately 150,000 fatalities all over the world (WHO). In this review, we elaborate all currently available data that shed light on possible methods for treatment of COVID-19, such as antiviral drugs, corticosteroids, convalescent plasma, and potentially effective vaccines. Additionally, ongoing and discontinued clinical trials that have been carried out for validating probable treatments for COVID-19 are discussed. The review also elaborates the prospective approach and the possible advantages of using convalescent plasma and stem cells for the improvement of clinical symptoms and meeting the demand for an instantaneous cure.

The Road Not Taken with Pyrrole-Imidazole Polyamides: Off-Target Effects and Genomic Binding

The high sequence specificity of minor groove-binding N-methylpyrrole-N-methylimidazole polyamides have made significant advances in cancer and disease biology, yet there have been few comprehensive reports on their off-target effects, most likely as a consequence of the lack of available tools in evaluating genomic binding, an essential aspect that has gone seriously underexplored. Compared to other N-heterocycles, the off-target effects of these polyamides and their specificity for the DNA minor groove and primary base pair recognition require the development of new analytical methods, which are missing in the field today. This review aims to highlight the current progress in deciphering the off-target effects of these N-heterocyclic molecules and suggests new ways that next-generating sequencing can be used in addressing off-target effects.

Limitations of Animal Studies for Predicting Toxicity in Clinical Trials: Is it Time to Rethink Our Current Approach?

Animal testing is used in pharmaceutical and industrial research to predict human toxicity, and yet analysis suggests that animal models are poor predictors of drug safety in humans. The cost of animal research is high-in dollars, delays in drug approval, and in the loss of potentially beneficial drugs for human use. Human subjects have been harmed in the clinical testing of drugs that were deemed safe by animal studies. Increasingly, investigators are questioning the scientific merit of animal research. This review discusses issues in using animals to predict human toxicity in pharmaceutical development. Part 1 focuses on scientific concerns over the validity of animal research. Part 2 will discuss alternatives to animal research and their validation and use in production of human pharmaceuticals.