Prognostic nomogram for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization

Use of a novel index, the A-index, and its associated nomogram to predict overall survival rates after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Several international staging or scoring systems don't accurately predict overall survival (OS) after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC). Therefore, we attempted to overcome this limitation by constructing the A-index and its associated nomogram.

METHODS

We selected 672 patients who underwent curative resection of PHCC between January 2007 and February 2015 at the first affiliated hospital of the Wenzhou medical university. These subjects were randomly divided into the training (n = 470) and the validation group (n = 202) according to the ratio of 7:3.

RESULTS

We prepared the nomogram using eight independent risk factors including the A-index (calculated by 100 × aspartate transaminase /albumin /albumin) in the training cohort. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for both training and validation set was similar in indicating the OS rate. The nomogram showed the strongest predictive power for the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, with the area under the ROC curve being 0.8182, 0.7892, and 0.7669, respectively. Correction curves showed consistent performance for both groups, stratification of the Kaplan-Meier curve was significant (P < 0.001), and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed the superiority of nomograms considering clinical effects.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive power of the nomogram integrating the A-index for OS was optimal.

Alpha-fetoprotein assessment for hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization

PURPOSE

To evaluate whether AFP classification criteria correlate with tumor response measured using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) and predicate survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS

Data from 143 consecutive patients with unresectable HCC and elevated AFP (> 20 ng/mL), who underwent TACE as initial treatment between January 2011 and December 2015 were collected, retrospectively. AFP response was classified as follows: complete response, normalization of AFP; partial response, > 50% decrease from baseline; stable disease, - 50 to + 30% change from baseline; or progressive disease, > 30% increase from baseline. Response rates according to AFP and EASL criteria were compared, and associations between the AFP response and overall survival (OS) were evaluated.

RESULTS

The k value for agreement between AFP criteria and EASL criteria was 0.52 (moderate), with response rates of 42.7% and 41.3%, respectively (P = 0.811). The OS of responders was significantly longer compared with non-responders for both AFP (21 vs. 6 months, P < 0.001) and EASL (23 vs. 6 months, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the AFP response (hazard ratio [HR], 0.430, 95% CI, 0.233-0.794; P = 0.007), EASL response (HR, 0.343; 95% CI, 0.176-0.666; P = 0.002), and macroscopic vascular invasion (HR, 2.104; 95% CI, 1.403-3.154; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The defined AFP classification criteria was moderate correlated with EASL criteria and predicted the outcome in patients with HCC who underwent TACE.

Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Spontaneously Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous tumor rupture is a rare and life-threatening complication of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The best treatment strategy remains unclear.

METHODS

The clinical data of 137 patients with spontaneously ruptured HCC from 2010 to 2015 were reviewed retrospectively. We investigated the outcome and prognostic factors of various treatment strategies.

RESULTS

Of the 137 patients, 53, 45, 3, and 36 patients underwent transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) alone, liver resection (LR) (LR alone or TACE + LR), surgical hemostasis, and conservative therapy. The patients undergoing LR had longest overall survival (OS). In the TACE alone group, independent factors affecting 30-day mortality were MELD score ≥ 12, AFP ≥ 1000 ng/ml, and largest tumor size ≥ 10 cm. AFP ≥ 1000 ng/ml, largest tumor size ≥ 10 cm, and no tumor capsule were significantly associated with poorer OS. In the LR group, largest tumor size ≥ 10 cm and no tumor capsule were the only independent prognostic factors for poorer OS and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Hypovolemic shock was an independent prognostic factor for poorer OS. The differences in OS between the TACE + LR group and LR alone group were not significant (P = 0.955). However, the RFS is significantly better in the LR alone group than those in the TACE + LR group (P = 0.031).

CONCLUSION

For resectable tumor, LR is the treatment of choice for patients with spontaneous ruptured HCC and preserved liver function. The delay in LR due to preoperative TACE may account for its worse RFS compared with LR alone. In patients with an unresectable tumor, TACE therapy alone improved survival over conservative therapy.

A new ALBI-based model to predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization for BCLC stage B hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a standard treatment for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the outcome varied. This study aimed to develop a model to predict the outcome of TACE in HCC patients.

METHODS

Consecutive 570 treatment-naïve BCLC stage B HCC patients undergoing TACE as the initial treatment from 2007 to 2016 were retrospectively enrolled. Factors associated with survival were analysed. Patients undergoing TACE from 2007 to 2011 constituted the training cohort (n = 293), while patients undergoing TACE from 2012 to 2016 constituted the validation cohort (n = 277). Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) were compared between each prognostic model.

RESULTS

A total of 1796 TACE sessions were performed for the 570 patients during the median follow-up period of 18.3 months. By multivariate analysis, beyond up-to-11 criteria (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.694, P < .001), alpha-foetoprotein >200 ng/mL (HR = 1.771, P < .001) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 or 3 (HR = 1.817, P < .001) were independent predictors of overall survival (OS) in the training cohort. An ALBI-TAE model based on the three independent predictors of OS from the training cohort was developed to classify HCC patients into four subgroups. The performance of the ALBI-TAE model was superior to other prognostic models with lowest AICc values and highest homogeneity in both the training and validation datasets as well as the overall cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin-bilirubin grade is an important factor associated with survival in BCLC stage B HCC patients undergoing TACE. ALBI-TAE model can be applied to select patients who can get most benefit from TACE.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation

Background

There are large variations in prognosis among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). However, current staging or scoring systems hardly discriminate the outcome of HCC patients treated with RFA.

Methods

A total of 757 treatment‐naïve HCC patients undergoing RFA (derivation cohort) were analyzed to establish a nomogram for disease‐free survival (DFS) based on Cox proportional hazard regression model. Accuracy of the nomogram was assessed and compared with conventional staging or scoring systems. Furthermore, external validation was performed in an independent cohort including 208 patients (validation cohort).

Results

Tumor size, tumor number, alpha‐fetoprotein, prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence‐II, lymphocyte count, albumin, and presence of ascites were adopted to construct the prognostic nomogram from the derivation cohort. Calibration curves to predict probability of DFS at 3 and 5 years after RFA showed good agreements between the nomogram and actual observations. The concordance index of the present nomogram was 0.759 (95% confidence interval 0.728‐0.790), which was superior to those of conventional staging or scoring systems (range 0.505‐0.683, all P < .001). These results were also reproduced in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

Our simple‐to‐use nomogram optimized for treatment‐naïve HCC patients undergoing RFA provided better prognostic performance than conventional staging or scoring systems.

Predictive factors for the benefit of triple-drug transarterial chemoembolization for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Compared with single‐drug TACE, our previous phase III study demonstrated that triple‐drug transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) prolonged overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to find which patients can benefit from the triple drugs TACE compared with single‐drug TACE.

Methods

Patients in the triple‐drug TACE arm received sponge embolization and emulsions composed of 50 mg epirubicin, 50 mg lobaplatin, 6 mg mitomycin C, and lipiodol, while patients in the single‐drug TACE arm received sponge embolization and emulsions composed of 50 mg epirubicin and lipiodol. From July 2007 to November 2009, 244 patients (224 men and 20 women; age ranged from 21 to 75 years) from our phase III study formed the initial cohort. From January 2010 to June 2015, external validation cohort was composed of 449 patients (411 men and 38 women; age ranged from 18 to 75 years) from another institution. The validation cohort after propensity score matching (PSM) (n = 374) was analyzed. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the interaction term between treatments for each subgroup. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board at each center.

Results

No difference was observed in the baseline characteristic of three cohorts. This exploratory analysis showed that triple‐drug TACE brought a survival benefit in the initial cohort, validation cohort (before PSM), and validation cohort (after PSM) compared with single‐drug TACE. The outcomes of three cohorts all showed that a significantly greater OS triple‐drug chemotherapy benefit versus single‐drug chemotherapy was seen in patients with large tumors (larger than 10 cm) while no survival difference was seen in patients with small tumors (10 cm or smaller).

Conclusions

Triple‐drug TACE seems to benefit patients with HCC larger than 10 cm in particular compared with single‐drug TACE.

Development and validation of a prognostic index for efficacy evaluation and prognosis of first-line chemotherapy in stage III-IV lung squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To establish a pre-therapy prognostic index model (PIM) of the first-line chemotherapy aiming to achieve accurate prediction of time to progression (TTP) and overall survival among the patients diagnosed with locally advanced (stage III) or distant metastasis (stage IV) lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC).

METHODS

Ninety-six LSCC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy were retrospectively enrolled to build the model. Fourteen epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant LSCC patients treated with first-line EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy were enrolled for validation dataset. From CT images, 56,000 phenotype features were initially computed. PIM was constructed by integrating a CT phenotype signature selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and the significant blood-based biomarkers selected by multivariate Cox regression. PIM was then compared with other four prognostic models constructed by the CT phenotype signature, clinical factors, post-therapy tumor response, and Glasgow Prognostic Score.

RESULTS

The signature includes eight optimal features extracted from co-occurrence, run length, and Gabor features. By using PIM, chemotherapy efficacy of patients categorized in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk progression subgroups (median TTP = 7.2 months, 3.4 months, and 1.8 months, respectively) was significantly different (p < 0.0001, log-rank test). Chemotherapy efficacy of the low-risk progression subgroup was comparable with EGFR-TKI therapy (p = 0.835, log-rank test). Prognostic prediction of chemotherapy efficacy by PIM was significantly higher than other models (p < 0.05, z test).

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated that the PIM yielded significantly higher performance to identify individual stage III-IV LSCC patients who can potentially benefit most from first-line chemotherapy, and predict the risk of failure from chemotherapy for individual patients.

KEY POINTS

• TTP and OS of first-line chemotherapy in individual stage III-IV LSCC patients could be predicted by pre-therapy blood-based biomarkers and image-based signatures. • Risk status of pre-therapy indicators affected the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy in stage III-IV LSCC patients. • Those stage III-IV LSCC patients who were able to achieve similar efficacy to EGFR-TKI therapy through chemotherapy were identified.

Development of a prognostic score for recommended TACE candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous prognostic scores for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) were mainly derived from real-world settings, which are beyond guideline recommendations. A robust model for outcome prediction and risk stratification of recommended TACE candidates is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients.

METHODS

Between January 2010 and May 2016, 1,604 treatment-naïve patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh A5-B7 and performance status 0 undergoing TACE were included from 24 tertiary centres. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 807) and validation (n = 797) cohorts. A prognostic model was developed and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

The final presentation of the model was "linear predictor = largest tumour diameter (cm) + tumour number", which consistently outperformed other currently available models in both training and validation datasets as well as in different subgroups. The thirtieth percentile and the third quartile of the linear predictor, namely 6 and 12, were further selected as cut-off values, leading to the "six-and-twelve" score which could divide patients into 3 strata with the sum of tumour size and number ≤6, >6 but ≤12, and >12 presenting significantly different median survival of 49.1 (95% CI 43.7-59.4) months, 32.0 (95% CI 29.9-37.5) months, and 15.8 (95% CI 14.1-17.7) months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The six-and-twelve score may prove an easy-to-use tool to stratify recommended TACE candidates (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-A/B) and predict individual survival with favourable performance and discrimination. Moreover, the score could stratify these patients in clinical practice as well as help design clinical trials with comparable criteria involving these patients. Further external validation of the score is required.

LAY SUMMARY

There is currently no prognostic model specifically developed for recommended or ideal transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma, despite these patients being frequently identified as the best target population in pivotal randomized controlled trials. The six-and-twelve score provides patient survival prediction, especially in ideal candidates of TACE, outperforming other currently available models in both training and validation sets, as well as different subgroups. With cut-off values of 6 and 12, the score can stratify ideal TACE candidates into 3 strata with significantly different outcomes and may shed light on risk stratification of these patients in clinical practice as well as in clinical trials.

Development and external validation of prognostic nomograms in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a population based study

Background: We attempted to construct and validate novel nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: Models were established using a discovery set (n=10,262) obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we identified independent risk factors for OS and CSS. Concordance indexes (c-indexes) and calibration plots were used to evaluate model discrimination. The predictive accuracy and clinical values of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Our OS nomogram with a c-index of 0.753 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.745–0.761) was based on age, sex, race, marital status, histological grade, TNM stage, tumor size, and surgery performed, and it performed better than TNM stage. Our CSS nomogram had a c-index of 0.748 (95% CI, 0.740–0.756). The calibration curves fit well. DCA showed that the two nomograms provided substantial clinical value. Internal validation produced c-indexes of 0.758 and 0.752 for OS and CSS, respectively, while external validation in the Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (SYMH) cohort produced a c-indexes of 0.702 and 0.686 for OS and CSS, respectively.

Conclusions: We have developed nomograms that enable more accurate individualized predictions of OS and CSS to help doctors better formulate individual treatment and follow-up management strategies.

Liver resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for the treatment of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The role of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) as the standard treatment for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is being challenged by increasing studies supporting liver resection (LR); but evidence of survival benefits of LR is lacking. We aimed to compare the overall survival (OS) of LR with that of TACE for the treatment of intermediate-stage HCC in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

A Markov model, comparing LR with TACE over 15 years, was developed based on the data from 31 literatures. Additionally, external validation of the model was performed using a data set (n = 1735; LR: 701; TACE: 1034) from a tertiary center with propensity score matching method. We conducted one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses, in addition to a Monte Carlo analysis with 10 000 patients allocated into each arm.

RESULTS

The mean expected survival times and survival rates at 5 years were 77.8 months and 47.1% in LR group, and 48.6 months and 25.7% in TACE group, respectively. Sensitivity analyses found that initial LR was the most favorable treatment. The 95% CI for the difference in OS was 2.42-2.46 years between the two groups (P < 0.001). In the validation set, the 5-year survival rates after LR were significantly better than those after TACE before (40.2% vs. 25.9%, P < 0.001) and after matching (43.2% vs 30.9%, P < 0.001), which was comparable to the model results.

CONCLUSIONS

For cirrhotic patients with resectable intermediate-stage HCC, LR may provide survival benefit over TACE, but large-scale studies are required to further stratify patients at this stage for different optimal treatments.

Competing risk analyses of overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma after surgery

Background

Our objective was to identify risk factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and build nomograms to predict survival based on a large population-based cohort.

Methods

Two hundred and thirty patients diagnosed with CHCC between 2004 and 2015 were retrospectively extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database as a training cohort. In addition, Ninety-nine patients diagnosed with CHCC between 2000 and 2017 were retrospectively extracted from Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) as an external validation. Nomograms for predicting probability of OS and CSS were established. Performance of the nomograms was measured by concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results

In training cohort, the 1-, 2 and 3-year OS were 67.7, 46.8 and 37.9%, and the 1-, 2 and 3-year CSS were 73.1, 52.0 and 43.0%, respectively. The established nomograms were well calibrated in both training and validation cohort, with concordance indexes (C-index) of 0.652 and 0.659, respectively for OS prediction; 0.706 and 0.763, respectively for CSS prediction. Nomograms also displayed better discriminatory compared with 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system for predicting OS and CSS.

Conclusion

We constructed nomograms to predict OS and CSS based on a relatively large cohort. The established nomograms were well validated and could serve to improve predictions of survival risks and guide management of patients with CHCC after surgery.

Imaging features related with prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

We discuss various imaging features that have been reported to be associated with the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but not included in the current staging systems: findings related with microvascular invasion, tumor encapsulation, intratumoral fat, presence of satellite nodules, peritumoral hypointensity on hepatobiliary phase images of gadoxetic-acid enhanced MRI, restricted diffusion, and irregular rim-like hyperenhancement. Current evidence suggests that larger (> 2 cm) tumor size, presence of satellite nodules, presence of irregular rim-like hyperenhancement of a tumor, peritumoral parenchymal enhancement in the arterial phase, and peritumoral hypointensity observed on hepatobiliary phase images are independent imaging features to portend a worse prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Efficacy of Percutaneous Thermal Ablation Combined With Transarterial Embolization for Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy and a Prognostic Nomogram to Predict Survival

AIM

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of percutaneous thermal ablation combined with transarterial embolization for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy and establish a prognostic nomogram to predict survival.

METHODS

One hundred seventeen patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma receiving ablation from 2009 to 2014 were included in primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Between 2014 and 2016, 51 patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma treated by ablation were enrolled in the validation cohort to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. All patients underwent locoregional ablation. Overall survival was the primary end point, and progression-free survival was the second end point. The performance of the nomogram was assessed through concordance index and calibration curve and compared with 5 conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates of primary cohort were 88.4%, 70.7%, and 64.1%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year progression-free survival rates of primary cohort were 44%, 14%, and 8.7%, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis showed that tumor size ( P = .0469; hazard ratio, 1.020; 95% confidence interval, 1.0004-1.040), preoperative extrahepatic disease ( P = .0675; hazard ratio, 2.604; 95% confidence interval, 0.933-7.264), and close to hepatic hilum <2 cm ( P = .0053; hazard ratio, 3.691; 95% confidence interval, 1.474-9.240) were predictive factors for overall survival. The study established a nomogram to predict survival (concordance index, 0.752; 95% confidence interval, 0.656-0.849). According to the predicted overall survival, patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma were divided into 3 risk classes ( P < .05): low-risk group (total score <55; predicted 5-year overall survival rate, 82.9%), intermediate-risk group (55 ≤ total score < 99; predicted 5-year overall survival rate, 52.8%), and high-risk group (hazard ratio, total score ≥99; predicted 5-year overall survival rate, not available).

CONCLUSION

Percutaneous thermal ablation appears to be an effective procedure for the treatment of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy. The proposed nomogram provides a mechanism to accurately predict survival and could stratify risk among patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma treated by ablation therapy.

High Epithelial Cell Adhesion Molecule-Positive Circulating Tumor Cell Count Predicts Poor Survival of Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization

PURPOSE

To assess the role of epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM)-positive circulating tumor cell (CTC) count in predicting survival outcomes of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

EpCAM-positive CTC counts were prospectively determined via CellSearch in peripheral blood of 97 patients with unresectable HCC treated with chemoembolization. The impact of each CTC cutoff point on overall survival (OS) was evaluated by univariate Cox regression analysis. Based on hazard ratio, patients were divided into 3 groups with low (CTC count 0/1), moderate (CTC count 2-5), and high (CTC count ≥ 6) levels. Correlation of CTC counts with survival was assessed by Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine patients met inclusion criteria and were enrolled. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, CTC count was found to be an independent predictor of OS (P = .049) and progression-free survival (PFS; P = .007) in patients treated with chemoembolization. After adjustment for confounding factors, mortality risks in the high- and moderate-level groups were 2.819 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.218-6.526; P = .016) and 1.301 times (95% CI, 0.630-2.685; P = .477) greater, respectively, than in the low-level group. The risk of progression was 3.705 fold higher in the high-level group (95% CI, 1.628-8.433; P = .002) and 1.648 fold higher in the moderate-level group (95% CI, 0.843-3.223; P = .144) vs the low-level group.

CONCLUSIONS

High EpCAM-positive CTC count predicts poor survival of patients with unresectable HCC treated with chemoembolization.

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram to predict tumor recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Tumor recurrence after curative resection is common in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but large-scale long-term prediction on an individual basis has seldom been reported. We aimed to construct an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram to predict tumor recurrence in patients with HCC undergoing surgical resection.

METHODS

A total 1038 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing curative resection between 2002 and 2016 were enrolled. Baseline characteristics, tumor status and severity of liver functional reserve were collected. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to predict tumor recurrence and construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the discrimination and calibration tests.

RESULTS

After a mean follow up time of 30 months, 510 (49%) patients developed tumor recurrence. The cumulative recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 79%, 51%, 38% and 26%, respectively. In the Cox multivariate model, ALBI grade 2-3, multiple tumors, tumor size equal or large than 2 cm, serum ɑ-fetoprotein level equal or greater than 20 ng/ml and total tumor volume equal or larger than 227 cm³ were independent risk factors associated with tumor recurrence. A nomogram was constructed based on these five variables. Internal validation with 10,380 bootstrapped sample sets had a good concordance of 0.607 (95% of confidence interval: 0.587-0.627). The calibration plots for 1-, 3- and 5-year recurrence-free survival well matched the idealized 45-degree line.

CONCLUSIONS

ALBI is a feasible marker for tumor recurrence. This easy-to-use ALBI grade-based nomogram may predict tumor recurrence for individual HCC patient undergoing surgical resection.

Angio-Computed Tomograph-Guided Immediate Lipiodol Computed Tomograph for Diagnosis of Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma Lesions during Transarterial Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis and treatment of small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) play a vital role in the prognosis of patients with HCC. The purpose of our study was to evaluate angio-computed tomography (angio-CT)-guided immediate lipiodol CT (a CT scan performed immediately after transarterial chemoembolization [TACE]) in the diagnosis of potential HCCs ≤1 cm in diameter.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed 31 patients diagnosed with HCCs after routine imaging (contrast-enhanced CT or magnetic resonance imaging) or pathologic examinations with undefined or undetermined tumor lesions (diameter ≤1 cm) from February 2016 to September 2016. After TACE guided by digital subtraction angiography of the angio-CT system, potential HCC lesions with a diameter ≤1 cm were diagnosed by immediate lipiodol CT. The number of well-demarcated lesions was recorded to calculate the true positive rate. The correlation between the number of small HCCs detected by immediate lipiodol CT and the size of HCC lesions (diameter >1 cm) diagnosed preoperatively was analyzed 1 month after TACE. A paired t-test was used to analyze differences in liver function. Pearson analysis was used to analyze correlation. Chi-square test was used to compare the rates.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight lesions were detected on preoperative routine imaging examinations in 31 patients including 15 lesions with a diameter ≤1 cm. Ninety-one lesions were detected on immediate lipiodol CT, of which 48 had a diameter ≤1 cm. After 1 month, CT showed that 45 lesions had lipiodol deposition and three lesions had lipiodol clearance. Correlation analysis showed that the number of small HCCs detected by lipiodol CT was positively correlated with the size of HCC lesions diagnosed by conventional imaging examination (R2 = 0.54, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Immediate lipiodol CT may be a useful tool in the diagnosis of potential HCC lesions with a diameter of ≤1 cm.

The efficacy and safety of long- versus short-interval transarterial chemoembolization in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: To compare the efficacy and safety of long- versus short-interval of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

Methods: This retrospective analysis enrolled 574 patients with unresectable HCC who underwent at least two sessions of TACE between January 2007 and December 2014. The patients were divided into a short-interval group (SIG) and a long-interval group (LIG) based on the median TACE interval of the first two sessions. Propensity score matching (PSM) identified 476 patients for a comparison of overall survival (OS) and safety.

Results: Before matching, the LIG had a longer OS than the SIG (Median: 12.1 vs. 8.7 months; P = 0.003). After matching, median OS in the SIG and LIG were 9.1 and 14.2 months (P < 0.001). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates were 37.5%, 17.1%, and 9.9% for SIG and 50.1%, 19.3%, and 11.6% for LIG, respectively. The TACE interval was an independent prognostic factor for OS. The LIG had a longer OS than the SIG in Barcelona Clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage C patients (Median: 10.2 vs. 5.8 months; P < 0.001), but not in BCLC-A or B. The postoperative adverse rates were similar in matched SIG and LIG patients (29.4% vs. 33.6%, P = 0.324).

Conclusions: A long interval between the first two sessions of TACE resulted in a better OS than a short interval in patients with unresectable BCLC C-stage HCC.

Association of Sustained Response Duration With Survival After Conventional Transarterial Chemoembolization in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

IMPORTANCE

Defining early reliable surrogate end points for survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) is of great value.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between sustained response duration (SRD) and overall survival (OS) after cTACE for intermediate HCC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter cohort study enrolled 2403 consecutive patients in China with naive intermediate HCC between June 1, 2000, and December 31, 2008, as the primary cohort, and 331 consecutive patients with intermediate naive HCC between January 1, 2011, to June 30, 2012, as the validation cohort. All patients received cTACE as an initial treatment. Initial response and best response were defined as the radiological response after first cTACE or best radiological response after 2 or more sessions of cTACE, respectively. Responders were those who experienced complete response or partial response. Sustained response duration was defined as the time between the date when complete response, partial response, or stable disease was achieved and the date progressive disease occurred after cTACE. Response was evaluated by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. Information about patients in the study was collected from January 1, 2018, to March 31, 2018, and analysis of these data was performed in April 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Overall survival.

RESULTS

A total of 2734 total patients (2499 of 2734 [91.4%] male; median [range] age, 56.5 [18-75] years) were included in the analysis. In the primary cohort, SRD of 6 months or more was found to have the strongest association with 5-year OS after cTACE among different durations of sustained response. Patients with SRD of 6 months or more (387 of 430 male; median [range] age, 57 [18-75] years) had the longest median (range) OS (67.7 [64.8-72.1] months), followed by initial responders (760 of 874 male; median [range] age, 56 [18-75] years; median [range] OS, 55.8 [55.0-57.7] months) and best responders (939 of 1032 male; median [range] age, 57 [18-75] years; median [range] OS, 53.2 [52.2-54.6] months). Response duration of 6 months or more was found to be an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio, 0.145; 95% CI, 0.124-0.170; P < .001). The significance of SRD as a factor associated with OS was confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Sustained response duration of 6 months or more was associated with OS and may serve as an early surrogate end point after cTACE for intermediate HCC.

A novel inflammation-based nomogram system to predict survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and Aim

The existed staging systems were limited in the accuracy of prediction for overall survival (OS) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The aim of this study is to establish a novel inflammation‐based prognostic system with nomogram for HCC patients.

Methods

A prospective cohort of patients was recruited and assigned to the training cohort (n = 659) and validation cohort (n = 320) randomly. Different inflammation‐based score systems were evaluated to select the best one predicting overall survival (OS). The inflammation‐based score system with the highest predicting value and the parameters best reflecting tumor burden identified by multivariate analysis were selected to construct a novel predicting nomogram system. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C‐index) and calibration curve and compared with conventional staging systems.

Results

With a highest C‐index and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C‐reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) was selected to construct the novel system, along with tumor number, tumor size, macrovascular invasion and extra‐hepatic metastases. The C‐index of the nomogram was 0.813 (95% CI, 0.789‐0.837) in the training cohort and 0.794 (95% CI, 0.756‐0.832) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve for predicting probability of survival showed that the nomogram had a high consistency with follow‐up data. The C‐index of the novel system was higher than other conventional staging systems (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The novel inflammation‐based nomogram, developed from prospectively collected data in the present study, predicted the OS of HCC patients.

Nomogram predicting survival of hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumour thrombus after curative resection

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to combine clinicopathologic variables associated with overall survival and disease-free survival after curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumour thrombus (PVTT) into a prediction nomogram.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed 358 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC with PVTT at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, the Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 252) and one-third were assigned to the validation set (n = 106). Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set, and the nomogram was constructed. Discrimination and calibration were performed using the validation set.

RESULTS

The multivariate Cox model identified alpha fetoprotein, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), tumour diameter, tumour capsule, PVTT type and TNM stage as covariates associated with 1-year survival, and alpha fetoprotein, HBsAg, tumour diameter, tumour capsule and PVTT type with half-year disease-free survival. In the validation set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power (Harrell's C-index 0.78) compared with the American Joint Committe on Cancer TNM classification, the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program grade and the Japan Integrated Staging grade. Calibration of the nomogram-predicted survival corresponding closely with the actual survival, the predicted survival was within a 10% margin of ideal nomogram.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram predicting 1-year overall survival and half-year disease-free survival after curative resection for HCC with PVTT. Validation data sets revealed good discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility. The nomogram improved individualized predictions of survival.

A Prognostic Nomogram Incorporating Depth of Tumor Invasion to Predict Long-term Overall Survival for Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma With R0 Resection

Purpose: To establish a useful prognostic nomogram to predict long-term overall survival for patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) after R0 resection. Patients and Methods: The nomogram was developed using a retrospective cohort of 235 TSCC patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2007. An independent dataset of 223 patients was used for external validation. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (backward selection; the Akaike information criteria) was applied to select variables for construction of the nomogram. Discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Results: Using the backward selection of clinically-relevant variables, depth of invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 3.55; P < 0.001), pN (HR, 3.48; P = 0.01), age (HR, 1.03; P < 0.01) and neck dissection (HR, 0.53; P = 0.04) were selected as independent predictive factors of survival. A nomogram was thus established to predict survival of TSCC patients after R0 resection. The calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 5-year overall survival (OS). In addition, our data showed the AUC of the nomogram were 0.78 and 0.71 based on the internal and external validation, which were significantly better than the 7^th TNM stage (0.64/0.55). Conclusion: The proposed nomogram resulted in accurate prognostic prediction of the 5-year OS for TSCC patients with R0 resection.

Staging and Prognostic Models for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

There are several important roles that staging systems and prognostic models play in the modern medical care of patients with cancer. First, accurate staging systems can assist clinicians by identifying optimal treatment selection based on the scope of disease at the time of diagnosis. Second, both physicians and patients may infer prognostic information from staging and models that may help decision makers identify appropriate therapies for individual patients. Third, in research, there is benefit to classifying patients with disease into subgroups ensuring greater parity between experimental and control arms. Staging systems in most solid organ malignancies rely heavily on an accurate pathologic assessment of the tumor (size, site, number of tumors, locoregional spread, and distant spread). Another consideration in primary liver cancer, such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), is the fact that the underlying liver function can significantly impact patient survival. In HCC, there are at least a dozen options that have been proposed for staging the disease. Herein, we review the most widely used systems and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. Prognostic models and nomograms are also discussed for a variety of subpopulations with HCC. Interestingly, until 2010, the staging system proposed by the American Joint Committee on Cancer for ICC was identical to HCC. The modern staging system, unique to ICC, is reviewed, and future modifications are identified with the primary supporting literature discussed.

Validation of the SNACOR clinical scoring system after transarterial chemoembolisation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Transarterial chemoembolisation is the standard of care for intermediate stage (BCLC B) hepatocellular carcinoma, but it is challenging to decide when to repeat or stop treatment. Here we performed the first external validation of the SNACOR (tumour Size and Number, baseline Alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh and Objective radiological Response) risk prediction model.

Methods

A total of 1030 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolisation at our tertiary referral centre from January 2000 to December 2016. We determined the following variables that were needed to calculate the SNACOR at baseline: tumour size and number, alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh class, and objective radiological response after the first transarterial chemoembolisation. Overall survival, time-dependent area under receiver-operating characteristic curves, Harrell’s C-index, and the integrated Brier score were calculated to assess predictive ability. Finally, multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of survival.

Results

The study included 268 patients. Low, intermediate, and high SNACOR scores predicted a median survival of 31.5, 19.9, and 9.2 months, respectively. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for overall survival were 0.641, 0.633, and 0.609 at 1, 3, and 6 years, respectively. Harrell’s C-index was 0.59, and the integrated Brier Score was 0.175. Independent predictors of survival included tumour size (P < 0.001), baseline alpha-fetoprotein level (P < 0.001) and Child-Pugh class (P < 0.004). Objective radiological response (P = 0.821) and tumour number (P = 0.127) were not additional independent predictors of survival.

Conclusions

The SNACOR risk prediction model can be used to identify patients with a dismal prognosis after the first transarterial chemoembolisation who are unlikely to benefit from further transarterial chemoembolisation. However, Harrell’s C-index showed only moderate performance. Accordingly, this risk prediction model can only serve as one of several components used to make the decision about whether to repeat treatment.

Prognostic nomogram for post-surgical treatment with adjuvant TACE in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to establish an effective and reliable prognostic nomogram to guide the decision for post-surgical adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) in patients with hepatitis B virus-related (HBV) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

RESULTS

The 1, 3, 5-year overall survival rates were, respectively, 87.7%, 52.1% and 28.3% in the patients from the derivation set and 91.7%, 57.1% and 34.1% in those from the validation set. Five risk factors (HBV-DNA level, platelet count, vascular invasion, change of Child-Pugh score, and tumor diameter) in the multivariate analysis were significantly associated with prognosis. The statistical nomogram incorporated these five factors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with c-index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.83). The findings were supported by the independent external validation set (c-index, 0.69; 95% CI 0.56 to 0.83). Patients who had a nomogram score of less than 180 was considered to have higher survival benefit from PA-TACE.

METHODS

The nomogram was established based on data obtained from a retrospective study on 235 consecutive patients with HBV HCC who received PA-TACE as an initial therapy from 2006 to 2010 in our center. 84 patients who were collected at another institution between 01/2008 and 12/2010 served as an external validation set. The prognostic nomogram was developed based on the data obtained before the PA-TACE procedure. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram may achieve an optimal prognostic prediction for PA-TACE in HBV-related HCC.

Establishment and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients with resectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

As the conventional staging systems have poor prognosis prediction ability for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA), we established and validated an effective prognostic nomogram for pCCA patients based on their personal and tumor characteristics. A total of 235 patients who received curative intent resections at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital from 2000 to 2009 were recruited as the primary training cohort. Age, preoperative CA19-9 levels, portal vein involvement, hepatic artery invasion, lymph node metastases, and surgical treatment outcomes (R0 or R1/2) were independent prognostic factors for pCCA patients in the primary cohort as suggested by the multivariate analyses and these were included in the established nomogram. The calibration curve showed good agreement between overall survival probability of pCCA patients for the nomogram predictions and the actual observations and the concordance index (C-index) was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61-0.71). The C-index values and time-dependent ROC tests suggested that the nomogram is superior to the conventional staging systems including the Bismuth-Corlette, Gazzaniga, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM 7^th edition, and Mayo Clinic. The nomogram also performed better than the traditional staging system in the internal cohort with 93 pCCA patients from the same institution and an external validation cohort including 84 pCCA patients from another institution in predicting the overall survival of the pCCA patients as suggested by the C-index values and the time-dependent ROC tests. In summary, the proposed nomogram has superior predictive accuracy of prognosis for resectable pCCA patients.

Fibrinogen and C-reactive protein score is a prognostic index for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing curative resection: a prognostic nomogram study

Background: While curative resection is the established strategy for Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, the prognosis still remains poor, and the efficiency of existing prediction models is unsatisfactory. Therefore, we aimed to develop a credible and easy-to-use prognostic index for patients with HCC undergoing curative therapy. Methods: A total of 768 patients with HCC, who underwent curative resection from December 2010 to June 2012 in Zhongshan Hospital, were divided into a training cohort with 616 patients and a validating cohort of 152 patients at a ratio of 4 to 1 by random allocation. Then, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify effective prognostic indexes. Results: FC-score, which incorporates fibrinogen and C-reactive protein, was established. In the multivariate analysis for OS and RFS, FC-score has shown to be a significant independent prognostic index in both the training cohort and validation cohort. Furthermore, the C-index of the FC-score for OS and RFS were 0.698 and 0.594 respectively, which were superior to other inflammation systems such as IBI, IBS, and GPS. Then, we developed a novel nomogram, which integrated FC-score into the conventional BCLC staging system. This new nomogram gave rise to a new C-index of 0.746 (95%CI: 0.743-0.749) for OS, and 0.654 (95%CI: 0.652-0.656) for RFS. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that our nomogram was highly consistent between predicted and actual observations. Conclusions: FC-score represents a novel, convenient, reliable, and accurate prognostic predictor for both OS and RFS in HCC patients undergoing curative therapy.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of recurrence after postoperative adjuvant TACE for hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

This study sought to develop an effective and reliable nomogram for predictions of recurrence for postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) in patients with hepatitis B virus-related (HBV) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).The nomogram was established based on data obtained from a retrospective study on 235 consecutive patients with HBV HCC who received PA-TACE as an initial therapy from 2006 to 2010 in our center. Eighty-four patients who were collected at another institution between 01/2008 and 12/2010 served as an external validation set. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was collected. The nomogram for tumor recurrence was developed based on the data obtained before the PA-TACE procedure. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and validation set.The 1, 2, 3-year RFS rates were 55.5%, 27.0%, and 14.1%, respectively, in the patients from the derivation set and 60.7%, 33.2%, and 23.8% in those from the validation set. Four risk factors (HBV-DNA level, vascular invasion, change of Child-Pugh score, and tumor diameter) in the multivariate analysis were significantly associated with RFS. The statistical nomogram incorporated these 4 factors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with the c-index of 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.82). The findings were supported by the independent external validation set (c-index, 0.70; 95% CI 0.58-0.83). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in our model was greater than those of conventional staging systems in the validation patients (corresponding c-indices, 0.56-0.64).The novel nomogram may achieve an optimal prediction for recurrence outcome in HBV-related HCC with PA-TACE.

Transarterial chemoembolization combined with recombinant human adenovirus type 5 H101 prolongs overall survival of patients with intermediate to advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a prognostic nomogram study

Background

Patients with intermediate to advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are most commonly treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Previous studies showed that TACE combined with recombinant human adenovirus type 5 (H101) may provide a clinical survival benefit. In the present study, we aimed to determine the survival benefit of TACE with or without H101 for patients with intermediate to advanced HCC and to develop an effective nomogram for predicting individual survival outcomes of these patients.

Methods

We retrospectively collected data from 590 patients with intermediate to advanced HCC who were treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between January 2007 and July 2015. After propensity score matching, 238 patients who received TACE with H101 (TACE with H101 group) and 238 patients who received TACE without H101 (TACE group) were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method; the nomogram was developed based on Cox regression analysis. Discrimination and calibration were measured using the concordance index (c-index) and calibration plots.

Results

Clinical and radiologic features were similar between the two groups. OS rates were significantly lower in the TACE group than in the TACE with H101 group (1-year OS rate, 53.8% vs. 61.3%; 2-year OS rate, 33.4% vs. 44.2%; 3-year OS rate, 22.4% vs. 40.5%; all P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis for the entire cohort showed that alpha-fetoprotein level, alkaline phosphatase level, tumor size, metastasis, vascular invasion, and TACE with or without H101 were independent factors for OS, all of which were included in the nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between nomogram-predicted survival and observed survival. The c-index of the nomogram for predicting OS was 0.716 (95% confidence interval 0.686–0.746).

Conclusions

TACE plus H101 extends the survival of patients with intermediate to advanced HCC. Our proposed nomogram provides individual survival prediction and stratification for patients with intermediate to advanced HCC who receive TACE with or without H101.

Hook1 inhibits malignancy and epithelial–mesenchymal transition in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hook1 is a member of the hook family of coiled-coil proteins, which is recently found to be associated with malignant tumors. However, its biological function in hepatocellular carcinoma is yet unknown. Here, we evaluated the Hook1 levels in human hepatocellular carcinoma samples and matched peritumoral tissues by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Small interfering RNA knockdown and a transforming growth factor-β-induced epithelial–mesenchymal transition model were employed to investigate the biological effects of Hook1 in hepatocellular carcinoma. Our results indicated that Hook1 levels were significantly lower in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues than in the peritumoral tissues. In addition, Hook1 expression was significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma malignancy. Hook1 was downregulated after transforming growth factor-β-induced epithelial–mesenchymal transition. Moreover, Hook1 knockdown promoted epithelial–mesenchymal transition and attenuated the sensitivity of hepatocellular carcinoma cells to doxorubicin. In summary, our results indicate that downregulation of Hook1 plays a pivotal role in hepatocellular carcinoma progression via epithelial–mesenchymal transition. Hook1 may be used as a novel marker and therapeutic molecular target in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Nomograms Based on the Albumin-Bilirubin Grade to Assess the Outcomes of Radiofrequency Ablation

Purpose To construct a nomogram with the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade to assess the long-term outcomes of patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Materials and Methods This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, and informed consent was waived. We studied 622 treatment-naïve patients with HCC according to the Milan criteria who subsequently underwent RFA from 2002 to 2013. Baseline characteristics were collected to identify the risk factors for determination of poor overall survival after RFA. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model based on significant prognostic factors of overall survival was used to construct the nomogram. Results After a median follow-up time of 35.7 months, 190 patients had died. The cumulative 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 63.1% and 48.7%, respectively. Stratified according to ALBI grade, the cumulative 5- and 10-year survival rates were 80.0% and 67.9% for patients with grade 1, respectively, and 48.6% and 35.1% for those with grades 2-3, respectively (P < .001). Multivariate analysis results showed that patient age older than 65 years, a prothrombin time international normalized ratio greater than 1.1, α-fetoprotein level greater than 20 ng/mL, multiple tumors, and ALBI grade 2 or 3 were associated with overall mortality. A nomogram was developed on the basis of these five variables. Internal validation with 200 bootstrapped sample sets had a good concordance index of 0.770 (95% confidence interval: 0.633, 0.876). Conclusion This simple nomogram based on the ALBI grade offers personalized long-term survival data for patients with early-stage HCC who undergo RFA. ^© RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization following curative resection

Adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a major option for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with recurrence risk factors. However, individualized predictive models for subgroup of these patients are limited. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with HCC underwent adjuvant TACE following curative resection.A cohort comprising 144 HCC patients who received adjuvant TACE following curative resection in the Zhongshan Hospital were analyzed. The nomogram was formulated based on independent prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and compared with the conventional staging systems. The results were validated in an independent cohort of 86 patients with the same inclusion criteria.Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), incomplete tumor encapsulation, and double positive staining of Cytokeratin 7 and Cytokeratin 19 on tumor cells were identified as independent predictors for OS. The C-indices of the nomogram for OS prediction in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.787 (95%CI 0.775-0.799) and 0.714 (95%CI 0.695-0.733), respectively. In both the training and validation cohorts, the calibration plot showed good consistency between the nomogram-predicted and the observed survival. Furthermore, the established nomogram was superior to the conventional staging systems in terms of C-index and clinical net benefit on DCA.The proposed nomogram provided an accurate prediction on risk stratification for HCC patients underwent adjuvant TACE following curative resection.

A Nomogram based on Inflammatory Factors C-Reactive Protein and Fibrinogen to Predict the Prognostic Value in Patients with Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: This study aimed to develop an effective nomogram for predicting survival in surgically treated non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 856 NSCLC in this study. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors for developing a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability was assessed with the concordance index (C-index).

Results: On multivariate analysis of the 856 cohort, independent factors for survival were CRP, fibrinogen, tumor status, nodal status, distant metastasis and clinical stage, which were entered into the nomogram. The C-index of the established nomogram 0.720 (95% CI: 0.671-0.769) was higher than that of the seventh edition TNM staging system 0.689 (95% CI: 0.668-0.709) for predicting OS (P < 0.05). Compared with patients with low CRP levels (< 8.6 g/L) and low fibrinogen levels (< 3.7 g/L), patients with high CRP and fibrinogen levels had shorter OS. Subgroup analyses revealed that the nomogram was a favorable prognostic parameter in stage I-IV NSCLC (P < 0.05).

Conclusion: A nomogram integrating CRP and fibrinogen, which could be convenient and feasible to obtain from the serum preoperatively, may assist in risk stratification for individual patient with resected NSCLC.

Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

The purpose of this study was to develop an effective nomogram capable of estimating the individual survival outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and compare the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability with other staging systems.

Methods

The nomogram was established based on a retrospective study of 661 patients newly diagnosed with HCC at the Beijing Ditan Hospital (Beijing, China), Capital Medical University, between October 2008 and July 2012. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the previously developed nomogram were assessed by C-index and calibration curves, and were compared to seven current commonly used staging systems. The results were validated, using a bootstrap approach to correct for bias, in a prospective study of 220 patients consecutively enrolled between August 2012 and March 2013.

Results

Multivariate analysis of the primary cohort for survival analysis identified the independent factors to be aspartate aminotransferase, ɣ-glutamyl transpeptidase, white blood cell count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, prothrombin activity, α-fetoprotein, tumor number and size, lymph node metastasis, and portal vein involvement, which were all included to build the nomogram. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.82), which was statistically better than that of the Tumor, Node, Metastasis staging (0.71), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging (0.77), Okuda (0.62), Japan Integrated Staging (0.73), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.76), Chinese University Prognostic Index (0.68), and the Groupe d’ Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire Prognostic classification (0.65) (p < 0.001 for all). The results were validated in the prospective validation cohort.

Conclusions

The prognostic nomogram resulted in more accurate individualized risk estimates for overall survival in HCC patients.

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log (des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Children and Adolescents: Clinical Characteristics and Treatment

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs rarely in children and adolescents (C&A), and its clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and treatment were rarely explored.

METHODS

This retrospective study focused on 65 HCC patients aged ≤20 years from August 1994 to August 2012. Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to investigate prognostic factors and compare overall survival (OS), respectively.

RESULTS

We found 61.5% of patients to have multiple tumors, 30.8% to have portal vein tumor thrombus, and 16.9% to have distant metastasis. Diameter of tumors was 10.2 ± 4.1 cm. OS at 5 years was 15.8%. Multivariate analyses showed initial treatment (P < 0.001) to be a predictor for OS. For moderate-stage HCC, the median OS of patients who underwent resection was longer than that of patients who underwent transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or supportive treatment (ST) (P < 0.001). For advanced-stage HCC, the median OS of patients who underwent TACE was longer than that of patients who underwent ST (P = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

HCC in C&A tends to be more advanced than that in adults, and resection remains the mainstay of treatment for those patients. Moreover, compared with ST, TACE may benefit C&A with moderate- and advanced-stage HCC, which needs further study.

Transarterial Chemoembolization for the Treatment of Advanced-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

It remains controversial whether transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) should be performed in patients with advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present large retrospective cohort study aimed to define the survival outcome following TACE of advanced HCC and to identify the prognostic factors. Five hundred eight patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) C-stage HCC, Child-Pugh A/B who were treated with TACE between November 1998 and December 2013 were identified. There was no significant difference in overall survival (OS) between patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) 0 and those with ECOG ≥1 (10.5 months vs. 11.9 months, P = 0.87). The median OS of patients without portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) was longer than that of patients with PVTT (16.9 vs. 6.1 months, P < 0.001). Child-Pugh B class, PVTT, extrahepatic metastasis, tumor size ≥5 cm, number of tumors ≥3, and alpha-fetoprotein ≥400 ng/dL were significantly associated with decreased survival and were used for determining the risk scores. All patients were divided into two groups (low-risk and high-risk groups) according to the cutoff value of 6.5 for risk scores. The patients with a value <6.5 (low-risk group) had significantly longer survival than those with >6.5 (high-risk group) (24.1 vs. 7.5 months, respectively; P < 0.001). TACE is an effective therapy for select patients with advanced stage HCC and may provide equal or improved survival as compared with reported outcomes with sorafenib. The results highlight the need for a differentiated approach to therapeutic recommendations for patients with BCLC C.

mRECIST response combined with sorafenib-related adverse events is superior to either criterion alone in predicting survival in HCC patients treated with TACE plus sorafenib

The mRECIST and dermatologic adverse events (AEs) can be used to assess the patient response to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and/or sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we aimed to combine the two criteria to stratify the prognosis in patients with unresectable HCC receiving TACE plus sorafenib (TACE-S). In total, 176 consecutive HCC patients treated with TACE-S were enrolled. CT scans and laboratory tests were conducted pretreatment (at baseline, 5-7 days before the TACE-S) and post-treatment (at 1, 2 and 3 months). The radiological response was assessed according to mRECIST. Sorafenib-related AEs were recorded every 2 weeks after oral administration, and patients with dermatologic AEs of Grade 2 or more were defined as dermatologic responders. The earliest time at which mRECIST and dermatologic responses correlated with survival was 2 months after therapy. The mRECIST-dermatologic AE combination assessment stratified patients into three different prognoses; responders on both assessments exhibited the longest median overall survival (OS), followed by responders on one assessment and non-responders on both assessments (30.5, 17.4 and 8.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Achieving the highest C-index, the mRECIST-dermatologic AE combination showed better performance in predicting survival than either mRECIST or dermatologic AEs alone. Furthermore, the mRECIST-dermatologic AE combination remained a significant predictor of OS, even when the patients were stratified according to the BCLC stage, ECOG score or alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) value. This study showed that the combination of mRECIST response and dermatologic AEs is superior to either criterion used alone for predicting the survival of HCC patients treated with TACE-S.

Liver resection versus liver resection plus TACE for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria

BACKGROUND

The recurrence of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria after liver resection (LR) is common. This study aimed to clarify whether LR plus postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) could improve the outcomes of patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria after LR.

METHODS

A total of 754 consecutive patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria who received LR alone (n = 459) or LR + TACE (n = 295) were included. A propensity scoring matched model (PSM) was used to adjust for the baseline differences between the groups.

RESULTS

The 1, 3, and 5-y recurrence-free survival (76.7%, 40.4%, and 30.8%, respectively, for the LR-alone group versus 78.3%, 50.5%, and 46.2%, respectively, for the LR + TACE group; P = 0.004) and overall survival (94.1%, 58.3%, and 36.3%, respectively, for the LR-alone group versus 95.3%, 71.3%, and 54.9%, respectively, for the LR + TACE group; P < 0.001) rates of patients who underwent LR alone were much lower than in the LR + TACE group. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that LR alone was an independent risk factor for postoperative recurrence and poor long-term survival. After one-to-one PSM, 284 patients who underwent LR alone and 284 patients who underwent LR + TACE were selected for further analyses. Similar results were observed in the PSM model.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that LR + TACE may be beneficial for patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria. Postoperative adjuvant TACE should be considered to patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria.

Prognostic stratification and nomogram for survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiotherapy for lymph node metastasis

OBJECTIVE

To establish a prognostic model for overall survival prediction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with external beam radiotherapy (RT) for lymph node (LN) metastasis.

METHODS

105 patients with HCC underwent RT for LN metastasis. The median age, biologically effective RT dose and follow-up period were 60 years, 59 Gy10 and 5.7 months, respectively. 51 patients had symptoms related to LN metastasis.

RESULTS

The median survival (MS) was 5.8 months for all patients. For patients with LN-related symptoms, MS was 3.8 months compared with 10.7 months for those without LN-related symptoms. On multivariate analysis of pre-RT factors, symptoms related to LN metastasis [hazard ratio (HR) 2.93], Child-Pugh Class B-C (HR 2.77), uncontrolled intrahepatic disease (HR 2.74) and non-nodal distant metastasis (HR 1.62) were significantly poor prognostic factors for survival (all p < 0.05). Prognostic grouping into three groups by the number of risk factors also had a significant predictive value for survival, with patients having 0, 1, 2 and 3-4 risk factors demonstrating MS of 18.0, 11.7, 5.7 and 3.0 months, respectively (p < 0.001). A clinical nomogram based on the four prognostic factors was formulated and demonstrated good accuracy for predicting 6-month survival with a concordance index of 0.77.

CONCLUSION

In a heterogeneous group of patients with HCC treated with RT for LN metastasis, the presence of LN-related symptoms was highly associated with poor survival. The prognostic grouping and nomogram developed by the present study can be effectively used for the prediction of survival.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Patients treated with RT for LN metastases harbour various clinical features. Prognostic model and nomogram can help in predicting survival in these patients.

Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments

Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently “universally” recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process.

Refining prognosis after trans-arterial chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To develop an individual prognostic calculator for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing trans-arterial chemo-embolization (TACE).

METHODS

Data from two prospective databases, regarding 361 patients who received TACE as first-line therapy (2000-2012), were reviewed in order to refine available prognostic tools and to develop a continuous individual web-based prognostic calculator. Patients with neoplastic portal vein invasion were excluded from the analysis. The model was built following a bootstrap resampling procedure aimed at identifying prognostic predictors and by carrying out a 10-fold cross-validation for accuracy assessment by means of Harrell's c-statistic.

RESULTS

Number of tumours, serum albumin, serum total bilirubin, alpha-foetoprotein and maximum tumour size were selected as predictors of mortality following TACE with the bootstrap resampling technique. In the 10-fold cross-validation cohort, the model showed a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.649 (95% CI: 0.610-0.688), significantly higher than that of the Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score (0.589; 95% CI: 0.552-0.626; P = 0.001) and of the modified HAP-II score (0.611; 95% CI: 0.572-0.650; P = 0.005). Akaike's information criterion for the model was 2520; for the mHAP-II it was 2544 and for the HAP score it was 2554. A web-based calculator was developed for quick consultation at http://www.livercancer.eu/mhap3.html.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed individual prognostic model can provide an accurate prognostic prediction for each patient with unresectable HCC following treatment with TACE without class stratification. The availability of an online calculator can help physicians in daily clinical practice.

Effect of interleukin 12 gene therapy on microvessel density and microenvironment in a rabbit model of VX2 liver cancer

AIM: To evaluate the effect of interleukin-12 (IL-12) gene therapy on microvessel density and microenvironment in a post-chemoembolization VX2 liver cancer model, and to investigate its anti-tumor mechanism.

METHODS: Rabbits with VX2 hepatic tumors were randomized into 4 groups, with eight rabbits in each group. Interventional procedure protocols were performed as follows: 0.9% saline solution (group 1, control), transcatheter arterial chemoembolization alone (group 2, lipiodol + mitomycin), intra-arterial IL-12 gene infusion (group 3, IL-12 gene therapy alone), and intra-arterial IL-12 gene infusion in combination with chemoembolization (group 4, IL-12 plus chemoembolization). Fourteen days after therapy, tumor tissues of the sacrificed animals were explanted for immunohistochemistry to evaluate microvessel density, effector T cells (CD3⁺, CD4⁺, and CD8⁺) and regulatory T cells (FoxP3⁺).

RESULTS: The microvessel density and FoxP3⁺ T cells in group 2 were significantly higher than those in group 1, but the differences in CD3⁺, CD4⁺, and CD8⁺ T cells between the two groups were not significant. The microvessel density in gene therapy groups (groups 3 and 4) were significantly lower, and CD3⁺, CD4⁺, and CD8⁺ T cells in these two groups were significantly higher than those in groups 1 and 2. The differences in CD3⁺, CD4⁺, and CD8⁺ T cells between the two gene therapy groups (groups 3 and 4) were not significant. The difference in FoxP3⁺ T cells was not significant between before and after IL-12 gene therapy. The differences in the level of FoxP3 were not significant between groups 3 and 1, as well as between groups 4 and 2.

CONCLUSION: IL-12 gene therapy can inhibit angiogenesis and induce effector T cell (CD3⁺, CD4⁺, and CD8⁺) infiltration in the VX2 liver cancer model, but the efficacy appears to be limited by the regulatory T cells (FoxP3⁺) existing in the tumors and overexpressed after chemoembolization.

Transarterial chemoembolization: Evidences from the literature and applications in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the current standard of care for patients with large or multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), preserved liver function, absence of cancer-related symptoms and no evidence of vascular invasion or extrahepatic spread (i.e., those classified as intermediate stage according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system). The rationale for TACE is that the intra-arterial injection of a chemotherapeutic drug such as doxorubicin or cisplatin followed by embolization of the blood vessel will result in a strong cytotoxic effect enhanced by ischemia. However, TACE is a very heterogeneous operative technique and varies in terms of chemotherapeutic agents, treatment devices and schedule. In order to overcome the major drawbacks of conventional TACE (cTACE), non-resorbable drug-eluting beads (DEBs) loaded with cytotoxic drugs have been developed. DEBs are able to slowly release the drug upon injection and increase the intensity and duration of ischemia while enhancing the drug delivery to the tumor. Unfortunately, despite the theoretical advantages of this new device and the promising results of the pivotal studies, definitive data in favor of its superiority over cTACE are still lacking. The recommendation for TACE as the standard-of-care for intermediate-stage HCC is based on the demonstration of improved survival compared with best supportive care or suboptimal therapies in a meta-analysis of six randomized controlled trials, but other therapeutic options (namely, surgery and radioembolization) proved competitive in selected subsets of intermediate HCC patients. Other potential fields of application of TACE in hepato-oncology are the pre-transplant setting (as downstaging/bridging treatment) and the early stage (in patients unsuitable to curative therapy). The potential of TACE in selected advanced patients with segmental portal vein thrombosis and preserved liver function deserves further reports.