Effect of the clinical course of acute-on-chronic liver failure prior to liver transplantation on post-transplant survival

Factors Prognostic of Survival in Liver Transplant Recipients with Hepatitis B Virus Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

OBJECTIVES

Factors prognostic of survival in liver transplant (LT) recipients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) remain unclear. This study evaluated risk factors for survival in LT recipients with HBV-ACLF and determined the scoring system optimal for assessing patient prognosis.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 323 HBV-ACLF related patients undergoing LT, including 112, 146, and 65 patients with HBV-ACLF grades 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and factors associated with survival were analysed by multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Pretransplant prognostic scoring systems were compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The one-year survival rate was significantly lower in HBV-ACLF grade 3 (80.0%) than in grades 1 (93.8%) and 2 (91.8%) recipients (p=0.0063). Cox multivariate analysis showed that age >53 years (hazard ratio (HR) 3.731; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.640-8.407), WBC count >8.6 × 10⁹/L (HR 4.544; 95% CI 1.140-18.107), HBV-ACLF 3 (HR 2.729; 95% CI 1.050-7.096), and cold ischaemia time >8.5 hours (HR 2.867; 95% CI, 1.38-5.921) were independently prognostic of 1-year survival. Comparisons of pretransplant scoring systems showed that chronic liver failure-consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was superior to COSSH-ACLF, MELD-Na, and MELD scores in predicting 1-year OS in these patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Age >53 years, WBC counts >8.6 × 10⁹/L, HBV-ACLF grade 3, and cold ischaemia time >8.5 hours are independently prognostic of OS in LT recipients with HBV-ACLF. CLIF-C ACLFs is superior to other scoring methods in predicting 1-year OS in these patients.

Implications and Management of Cirrhosis-Associated Immune Dysfunction Before and After Liver Transplantation

Cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction (CAID) describes a panacea of innate and adaptive deficits that result from the sequelae of cirrhotic portal hypertension that is similar in its manifestations regardless of etiology of chronic liver injury. CAID is associated with synchronous observations of dysregulated priming of innate immune effector cells that demonstrate a proinflammatory phenotype but are functionally impaired and unable to adequately prevent invading pathogens. CAID is mainly driven by gut-barrier dysfunction and is associated with deficits of microbial compartmentalization and homeostasis that lead to tonic activation, systemic inflammation, and exhaustion of innate-immune cells. CAID leads to a high frequency of bacterial and fungal infections in patients with cirrhosis that are often associated with acute decompensation of chronic liver disease and acute-on-chronic liver failure and carry a high mortality rate. Understanding the deficits of mucosal and systemic immunity in the context of chronic liver disease is essential to improving care for patients with cirrhosis, preventing precipitants of acute decompensation of cirrhosis, and improving morbidity and survival. In this review, we summarize the detailed dynamic immunological perturbations associated with advanced chronic liver disease and highlight the importance of recognizing immune dysregulation as a sequela of cirrhosis. Furthermore, we address the role of screening, prevention, and early treatment of infections in cirrhosis in improving patient outcomes in transplant and nontransplant settings.

Liver Transplantation as a Cornerstone Treatment for Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct clinical syndrome, characterized by acute decompensation (AD) of liver cirrhosis, severe systemic inflammation, intra- and extrahepatic organ failures, and a high short-term mortality. Liver transplantation (LT) is a potentially life-saving treatment for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and, due to the high mortality rates, particularly for ACLF patients. In the last decade, a plethora of studies has produced compelling evidence in favor of LT in ACLF, demonstrating high post-LT survival rates and excessive waitlist mortality. The importance of LT in these patients is underscored by the fact that no specific therapy for ACLF is available yet, rendering expeditious life-saving LT to be the only feasible treatment option for some ACLF patients. This review aims to provide an overview on pathophysiology, clinical trajectory, and clinical management of ACLF and to delineate the current literature regarding perspectives and limitations of LT as a life-saving treatment option for ACLF patients.

Impact of MELD 30-allocation policy on liver transplant outcomes in Italy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In Italy, since August 2014, liver transplant (LT) candidates with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores ≥30 receive national allocation priority. This multicenter cohort study aims to evaluate time on the waiting list, dropout rate, and graft survival before and after introducing the macro-area sharing policy.

METHODS

A total of 4,238 patients registered from 2010 to 2018 were enrolled and categorized into an ERA-1 Group (n = 2,013; before August 2014) and an ERA-2 Group (n = 2,225; during and after August 2014). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of receiving a LT or death between the two eras. The Fine-Gray model was used to estimate the HR for dropout from the waiting list and graft loss, considering death as a competing risk event. A Fine-Gray model was also used to estimate risk factors of graft loss.

RESULTS

Patients with MELD ≥30 had a lower median time on the waiting list (4 vs.12 days, p <0.001) and a higher probability of being transplanted (HR 2.27; 95% CI 1.78-2.90; p = 0.001) in ERA-2 compared to ERA-1. The subgroup analysis on 3,515 LTs confirmed ERA-2 (odds ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.46-0.68; p = 0.001) as a protective factor for better graft survival rate. The protective variables for lower dropouts on the waiting list were: ERA-2, high-volume centers, no competition centers, male recipients, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The protective variables for graft loss were high-volume center and ERA-2, while MELD ≥30 remained related to a higher risk of graft loss.

CONCLUSIONS

The national MELD ≥30 priority allocation was associated with improved patient outcomes, although MELD ≥30 was associated with a higher risk of graft loss. Transplant center volumes and competition among centers may have a role in recipient prioritization and outcomes.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT04530240 LAY SUMMARY: Italy introduced a new policy in 2014 to give national allocation priority to patients with a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥30 (i.e. very sick patients). This policy has led to more liver transplants, fewer dropouts, and shorter waiting times for patients with MELD ≥30. However, a higher risk of graft loss still burdens these cases. Transplant center volumes and competition among centers may have a role in recipient prioritization and outcomes.

The patient with cirrhosis in the intensive care unit and the management of acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome characterised by acute hepatic decompensation, multi-organ failure and high mortality, in patients with cirrhosis.  Organ dysfunction in ACLF is often reversible and when necessary these patients should be considered appropriate candidates for admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). The yearly increase in numbers of patients with ACLF admitted to ICU has been matched with an improvement in survival.  ACLF has only been recently defined. In the absence of evidence-based guidelines we outline a systems-based approach to care which encompasses accepted ICU practice and evidence from trials in this cohort. We advocate for timely referral to specialist liver centres and consider the complexities of proceeding with liver transplantation. Equally, in a proportion of patients who continue to deteriorate, appropriate ceilings of care should be established.  Future clinical trials may change treatment paradigms but care of patients with ACLF is undoubtedly becoming an integral part of an intensivist's practice. We hope that this review is a welcome starting point when managing this complex clinical syndrome.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Clinical Guidelines

In patients with cirrhosis and chronic liver disease, acute-on-chronic liver failure is emerging as a major cause of mortality. These guidelines indicate the preferred approach to the management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure and represent the official practice recommendations of the American College of Gastroenterology. The scientific evidence for these guidelines was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation process. In instances where the evidence was not appropriate for Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation, but there was consensus of significant clinical merit, key concept statements were developed using expert consensus. These guidelines are meant to be broadly applicable and should be viewed as the preferred, but not only, approach to clinical scenarios.

Surgical Considerations Regarding Transplantation for the Patient With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

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Improved Survival With Higher-risk Donor Grafts in Liver Transplant With Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

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Use of higher-risk grafts in liver transplantation for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been associated with poor outcomes. This study analyzes trends in liver transplantation outcomes for ACLF over time based on the donor risk index (DRI).

Immunosuppression in patients with Grade 3 Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure at transplantation: A practice analysis study

Transplantation for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF3) has encouraging results with one-year-survival of 80-90%. These patients with multiple organ failure meet the conditions for serious alterations of drug metabolism and increased toxicity. The goal of this study was to identify immunosuppression-dependent factors that affect survival. This retrospective monocentric study was conducted in patients with ACLF3 consecutively transplanted between 2007 and 2019. The primary endpoint was one-year survival. Secondary endpoints were overall survival, treated rejection and surgical complications. Immunosuppression was evaluated as to type of immunosuppression, post-transplant introduction timing, through levels and trough level intra-patient variability (IPV). One hundred patients were included. Tacrolimus IPV <40% (p=0.019), absence of early tacrolimus overdose (p=0.033), use of anti-IL2-receptor antibodies (p=0.034) and early mycophenolic acid introduction (p=0.038) predicted one-year survival. Treated rejection was an independent predictor of survival (p=0.001; HR 4.2 (CI 95%: 1.13-15.6)). Early everolimus introduction was neither associated with higher rejection rates nor with more surgical complications. Management of immunosuppression in ACLF3 critically ill patients undergoing liver transplantation is challenging. Occurrence and treatment of rejection impacts on survival. Early introduction of mTOR inhibitor seems safe and efficient in this situation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Pretransplant Intensive Care Unit Management and Selection of Grade 3 Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Transplant Candidates

The aim of this study is to report on the liver transplantation (LT) activity and posttransplant outcome, over time, of patients with grade 3 acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF-3) in a single transplant center performing a large number of LTs for patients with ACLF-3. It aims at showing how pre-LT intensive care unit (ICU) management impacts post-LT outcomes, in particular through monitoring the transplantation for ACLF-3 model (TAM) score. A total of 100 patients who had ACLF-3 at the time of LT between 2007 and 2019 were included retrospectively. The cohort was divided in 2 periods, with 50 patients in each period. There was an increase in the number of patients with ACLF-3 who received an LT during the course of the study period and significantly higher 1-year post-LT survival rates in the second period compared with the first period (86% versus 66%, respectively; P = 0.02). Interestingly, patients during both periods had similar severity profiles and scores apart from a significantly lower number of patients with TAM scores >2 at the time of LT in the second period compared with the first period (1 [2%] versus 11 [22%], respectively; P ≤ 0.01). In addition, patients whose clinical condition improved in the ICU (with a TAM score downstaged between admission and LT) had significantly higher post-LT survival rates than those whose TAM score stayed the same or increased: 88% versus 70%, respectively (P = 0.04). This study shows a learning curve in LT for patients with ACLF-3, with optimized ICU management and patient selection leading to increased numbers of LTs for patients with ACLF-3 and improved post-LT outcomes. It also delineates how the TAM score can be used to identify the optimal transplantability window for patients with ACLF-3.

Progress in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure treatment in China: A large, multicenter, retrospective cohort study using a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has a high short-term mortality. However, the treatment progression for HBV-ACLF in China in the past decade has not been well characterized. The present study aimed to determine whether the HBV-ACLF treatment has significantly improved during the past decade.

METHODS

This study retrospectively compared short-term (28/56 days) survival rates of two different nationwide cohorts (cohort I: 2008-2011 and cohort II: 2012-2015). Eligible HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled retrospectively. Patients in the cohorts I and II were assigned either to the standard medical therapy (SMT) group (cohort I-SMT, cohort II-SMT) or artificial liver support system (ALSS) group (cohort I-ALSS, cohort II-ALSS). Propensity score matching analysis was conducted to eliminate baseline differences, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the independent factors for 28-day survival.

RESULTS

Short-term (28/56 days) survival rates were significantly higher in the ALSS group than those in the SMT group (P < 0.05) and were higher in the cohort II than those in the cohort I (P < 0.001). After propensity score matching, short-term (28/56 days) survival rates were higher in the cohort II than those in the cohort I for both SMT (60.7% vs. 53.0%, 50.0% vs. 39.8%, P < 0.05) and ALSS (66.1% vs. 56.5%, 53.0% vs. 44.4%, P < 0.05) treatments. The 28-day survival rate was higher in patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs than in patients without such treatments (P = 0.046). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that ALSS (OR = 0.962, 95% CI: 0.951-0.973, P = 0.038), nucleos(t)ide analogs (OR = 0.927, 95% CI: 0.871-0.983, P = 0.046), old age (OR = 1.028, 95% CI: 1.015-1.041, P < 0.001), total bilirubin (OR = 1.002, 95% CI: 1.001-1.003, P = 0.004), INR (OR = 1.569, 95% CI: 1.044-2.358, P < 0.001), COSSH-ACLF grade (OR = 2.683, 95% CI: 1.792-4.017, P < 0.001), and albumin (OR = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.924-0.982, P = 0.002) were independent factors for 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment for patients with HBV-ACLF has improved in the past decade.

Early transplantation maximizes survival in severe acute-on-chronic liver failure: Results of a Markov decision process model

Background & Aims

Uncertainties exist surrounding the timing of liver transplantation (LT) among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF-3), regarding whether to accept a marginal quality donor organ to allow for earlier LT or wait for either an optimal organ offer or improvement in the number of organ failures, in order to increase post-LT survival.

Methods

We created a Markov decision process model to determine the optimal timing of LT among patients with ACLF-3 within 7 days of listing, to maximize overall 1-year survival probability.

Results

We analyzed 6 groups of candidates with ACLF-3: patients age ≤60 or >60 years, patients with 3 organ failures alone or 4-6 organ failures, and hepatic or extrahepatic ACLF-3. Among all groups, LT yielded significantly greater overall survival probability vs. remaining on the waiting list for even 1 additional day (p <0.001), regardless of organ quality. Creation of 2-way sensitivity analyses, with variation in the probability of receiving an optimal organ and expected post-transplant mortality, indicated that overall survival is maximized by earlier LT, particularly among candidates >60 years old or with 4-6 organ failures. The probability of improvement from ACLF-3 to ACLF-2 does not influence these recommendations, as the likelihood of organ recovery was less than 10%.

Conclusion

During the first week after listing for patients with ACLF-3, earlier LT in general is favored over waiting for an optimal quality donor organ or for recovery of organ failures, with the understanding that the analysis is limited to consideration of only these 3 variables.

Lay summary

In the setting of grade 3 acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF-3), questions remain regarding the timing of transplantation in terms of whether to proceed with liver transplantation with a marginal donor organ or to wait for an optimal liver, and whether to transplant a patient with ACLF-3 or wait until improvement to ACLF-2. In this study, we used a Markov decision process model to demonstrate that earlier transplantation of patients listed with ACLF-3 maximizes overall survival, as opposed to waiting for an optimal donor organ or for improvement in the number of organ failures.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Pathophysiological Mechanisms and Management

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a multifaceted condition with poor treatment options and high short-term mortality. ACLF can develop in patients with or without liver cirrhosis, where patients with decompensated cirrhosis display a higher risk of short-term mortality. Pathophysiological mechanisms include systemic inflammation due to bacterial and fungal infections and acute hepatic insult with drug, alcohol, and viral hepatitis. Cryptogenic factors also contribute to the development of ACLF. The clinical outcome of patients with ACLF gets further complicated by the occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and systemic immune dysfunction. Regardless of the better understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms, no specific and definitive treatment is available except for liver transplantation. The recent approach of regenerative medicine using mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) could be advantageous for the treatment of ACLF as these cells can downregulate inflammatory response by inducing antiinflammatory events and prevent hepatic damage and fibrosis by inhibiting hepatic stellate cell activation and collagen synthesis. Moreover, MSCs are involved in tissue repair by the process of liver regeneration. Considering the broad therapeutic potential of MSCs, it can serve as an alternative treatment to liver transplant in the near future, if promising results are achieved.

Development and validation of a dynamic survival prediction model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of other organ systems and high short-term mortality. Current prediction models fail to adequately estimate prognosis and need for liver transplantation (LT) in ACLF. This study develops and validates a dynamic prediction model for patients with ACLF that uses both longitudinal and survival data.

Methods

Adult patients on the UNOS waitlist for LT between 11.01.2016-31.12.2019 were included. Repeated model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) measurements were jointly modelled with Cox survival analysis to develop the ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM). Model validation was carried out using separate testing data with area under curve (AUC) and prediction errors. An online ACLF-JM tool was created for clinical application.

Results

In total, 30,533 patients were included. ACLF grade 1 to 3 was present in 16.4%, 10.4% and 6.2% of patients, respectively. The ACLF-JM predicted survival significantly (p <0.001) better than the MELD-Na score, both at baseline and during follow-up. For 28- and 90-day predictions, ACLF-JM AUCs ranged between 0.840-0.871 and 0.833-875, respectively. Compared to MELD-Na, AUCs and prediction errors were improved by 23.1%-62.0% and 5%-37.6% respectively. Also, the ACLF-JM could have prioritized patients with relatively low MELD-Na scores but with a 4-fold higher rate of waiting list mortality.

Conclusions

The ACLF-JM dynamically predicts outcome based on current and past disease severity. Prediction performance is excellent over time, even in patients with ACLF-3. Therefore, the ACLF-JM could be used as a clinical tool in the evaluation of prognosis and treatment in patients with ACLF.

Lay summary

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) progresses rapidly and often leads to death. Liver transplantation is used as a treatment and the sickest patients are treated first. In this study, we develop a model that predicts survival in ACLF and we show that the newly developed model performs better than the currently used model for ranking patients on the liver transplant waiting list.

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ACLF is a dynamic disease that can rapidly change over time, which greatly influences patient survival without LT.

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Currently, the MELD-Na score is used to prioritize patients for LT, but MELD-Na underestimates ACLF disease severity.

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The ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM) was developed to dynamically predict survival.

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The ACLF-JM significantly outperformed the MELD-Na score for the prediction of mortality on the LT waiting list.

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The ACLF-JM can be used online to predict survival in individual patients.

Liver Transplantation in Patients with Acute-onChronic Liver Failure: Challenging the Limits

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is one of the main causes of death on the waiting list. Liver transplantation (LT) is the only curative treatment for patients with ACLF and therefore it should be considered in all cases. However, the applicability of LT in patients with ACLF is challenging, given the scarcity of donors and the high short-term mortality of these patients. Organ allocation has traditionally been prioritised according to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) system. However, the accuracy of MELD score is limited in patients with ACLF. In this article, the authors review the outcomes of patients with ACLF before and after LT, highlighting its clinical course, the feasibility of LT in the sickest patients, the role of the organ allocation system, and possible indicators of futility.

Treatment of Severe Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: Management of Organ Failures, Investigational Therapeutics, and the Role of Liver Transplantation

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a unique syndrome that afflicts patients with chronic liver disease and results in high short-term mortality, in the setting of organ system failures. Given this prognosis, there is an urgent need to understand risk factors for this condition, for appropriate medical management of organ failures, and for selection criteria for patients who may benefit from liver transplantation (LT). Although several definitions exist to identify ACLF, all of them are designed to identify patients with uniquely high mortality. Currently, management of severe ACLF relies on best supportive care for specific organ failures. Thromboelastography should guide the evaluation of coagulation pathways and hyperfibrinolysis in ACLF; prophylactic blood product transfusions and thrombopoetin agonists are not recommended. Combination therapy with terlipressin and albumin has been shown to be efficacious in the management of the hepatorenal syndrome but should be administered with caution in patients with ACLF-3. Recent data have characterized the role of beta-blockers and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement in the management of ACLF. Investigational therapies such as extracorporeal liver support and hepatocyte stem cell therapies have shown promise; larger scale studies may better define the subpopulations of patients with ACLF mostly likely to benefit from these evolving therapeutics. Regarding LT in ACLF, data suggest that even patients with 3 or more organ system failures may have a 1-year survival >80%. However, further efforts are needed to understand the predictors of post-LT survival to facilitate LT criteria for this condition.

New Indications for Liver Transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is an important therapeutic option for the treatment of several liver diseases. Modern LT is characterized by remarkable improvements in post-transplant patient survival, graft survival, and quality of life. Thanks to these great improvements, indications for LT are expanding. Nowadays, clinical conditions historically considered exclusion criteria for LT, have been considered new indications for LT, showing survival advantages for patients. In this review, we provide an updated overview of the principal newer indications for LT, with particular attention to alcoholic hepatitis, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), cholangiocarcinoma and colorectal cancer metastases.

Liver Transplantation in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Liver transplantation (LT) has revolutionized outcomes for cirrhotic patients. Current liver allocation policies dictate patients with highest short-term mortality receive the highest priority, thus, several patients become increasingly ill on the waitlist. Given cirrhosis is a progressive disease, it can be complicated by the occurrence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), a syndrome defined by an acute deterioration of liver function associated with extrahepatic organ failures requiring intensive care support and a high short-term mortality. Successfully bridging to transplant includes accurate prognostication and prioritization of ACLF patients awaiting LT, optimizing intensive care support pre-LT, and tailoring immunosuppressive and anti-infective therapies post-LT. Furthermore, predicting futility (too sick to undergo LT) in ACLF is challenging. In this review, we summarize the role of LT in ACLF specifically highlighting (a) current prognostic scores in ACLF, (b) critical care management of the ACLF patient awaiting LT, (c) donor issues to consider in transplant in ACLF, and (d) exploring of recent post-LT outcomes in ACLF and potential opportunities to improve outcomes including current care gaps and unmet research needs.

Limitations of current liver donor allocation systems and the impact of newer indications for liver transplantation

Liver transplantation represents a life-saving treatment for patients with decompensated cirrhosis, a severe condition associated with a high risk of waiting list mortality. When decompensation occurs rapidly in the presence of extrahepatic organ failures, the condition is called acute-on-chronic liver failure, which is associated with an even higher risk of death, though liver transplantation can also markedly improve survival in affected patients. However, there are still gaps in our understanding of how to optimise prioritisation and organ allocation, as well as survival among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (both before and after transplant). Moreover, it is urgent to address inequalities in access to liver transplantation in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Several controversies still exist regarding gender and regional disparities, as well as the use of suboptimal donor grafts. In this review, we aim to provide a critical perspective on the role of liver transplantation in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and address areas of ongoing uncertainty.

Effect of HIV infection on pre- and post-liver transplant mortality in patients with organ failure

OBJECTIVES

Organ failure (OF), a leading cause of death in HIV-positive individuals, is common in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). We examined the impact of HIV infection on pre- and post-LT mortalities in cirrhotic patients stratified by the number and type of OFs.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study and a retrospective cohort study using the US National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry data, respectively. Patients who had not yet undergone LT from the NIS database (2010-2014) and patients undergoing LT from the UNOS database (2003-2016) were included in the study.

RESULTS

Analysis of patients (201 348) from the NIS database showed that one [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.531; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.160-2.023], two (aOR 1.624; 95% CI 1.266-2.083) or three or more OFs (aOR 1.349; 95% CI 1.165-1.562) were associated with higher pre-LT mortality in HIV-infected patients compared with HIV-negative patients with the corresponding number of OFs. In patients without OF, HIV infection was not associated with increased pre-LT mortality. UNOS data for patients undergoing LT (38 942) showed that the presence of two or more OFs was associated with increased post-LT 1-year mortality in HIV-infected patients compared with non-HIV-infected patients with the corresponding number of OFs (aOR 2.342; 95% CI 1.576-3.480). However, in patients with no OF or only one OF, HIV infection was not associated with increased post-LT 1-year mortality (aOR 1.372; 95% CI 0.911-2.068).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study emphasize the importance of preventing OF development, and justify LT for HIV-infected patients with no or only one OF.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure From Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Growing and Aging Cohort With Rising Mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed the burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) among transplant candidates in the United States, along with waitlist outcomes for this population.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing registry from 2005 to 2017. Patients with ACLF were identified using the European Association for the Study of the Liver/Chronic Liver Failure criteria and categorized into NAFLD, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We used linear regression and Chow's test to determine significance in trends and evaluated waitlist outcomes using Fine and Gray's competing risks regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. Between 2005 and 2017, waitlist registrants for NAFLD-ACLF rose by 331.6% from 134 to 574 candidates (P < 0.001), representing the largest percentage increase in the study population. ALD-ACLF also increased by 206.3% (348-1,066 registrants; P < 0.001), whereas HCV-ACLF declined by 45.2% (P < 0.001). As of 2017, the NAFLD-ACLF population consisted primarily of persons aged ≥60 years (54.1%), and linear regression demonstrated a significant rise in the proportion of patients aged ≥65 in this group (β = 0.90; P = 0.011). Since 2014, NAFLD-ACLF grade 1 was associated with a greater risk of waitlist mortality relative to ALD-ACLF (subhazard ratio [SHR] = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.44) and HCV-ACLF (SHR = 1.35; 95% CI, 1.08-1.71), among patients aged ≥60 years. Mortality was similar among the three groups for patients with ACLF grade 2 or 3.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is the fastest rising etiology of cirrhosis associated with ACLF among patients listed in the United States. As the NAFLD population continues to grow and age, patients with NAFLD-ACLF will likely have the highest risk of waitlist mortality.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: update on pathogenesis, therapeutic targets, predictive models, and liver transplantation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome in patients with chronic liver disease that is associated with multiple organ failures and a high short-term mortality. Systemic inflammation is suggested to play a key role in its pathogenesis, although the precise causative mechanism is unknown. The purpose of this review is to present and discuss new findings related to: mechanisms underlying ACLF, therapeutic targets, risk prediction models for developing ACLF, and liver transplantation for ACLF.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies of ACLF pathophysiology classified the immunosuppressive phenotype in monocytes. Investigation of therapeutic strategies identified inhibition of toll-like receptor-4 (TLR-4) and glutamine synthetase (GLUL) as potential targets. Recent studies identified novel risk prediction models for developing ACLF and enhanced our understanding of liver transplantation for ACLF to guide clinicians in determining that patients will benefit from transplantation.

SUMMARY

Improved knowledge on the pathogenesis of ACLF and identification of TLR-4 and GLUL may lead to clinical trials to study the efficacy of these novel therapeutic targets for patients with ACLF. Liver transplantation is the only current treatment for ACLF. Given the limited availability of donor organs, recent studies have identified ACLF patients who may merit the highest waitlist priority.

A nomogram to predict survival in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Individualized prediction of survival after liver transplantation (LT) for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has not been well investigated. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with HBV-ACLF undergoing LT.

METHODS

The nomogram was derived from a retrospective study of 290 patients who underwent LT for HBV-ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2012 and December 2017. Concordance index and determiner calibration curve was used to ascertain the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was compared with that of Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, chronic liver failure Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), and CLIF-C ACLF.

RESULTS

The 1-year mortality rate was 23.1% (67/290). The Cox multivariate analysis showed that risk factors for 1-year survival rate included white blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio, and the organ failure numbers. The determiner calibration curve showed good agreement between prediction of the nomogram and actual observation. The concordance index of the nomogram for predicting 1-year survival was 0.707, which was significantly higher than that of other prognostic models: Child-Pugh score (0.626), MELD (0.627), MELD-Na (0.583), CLIF-C OF (0.674), and comparable to that of CLIF-C ACLF (0.684).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study developed a novel nomogram that could accurately predict individualized post-transplantation survival in patients with HBV-ACLF. The nomogram might be a useful tool for identifying HBV-ACLF patients who would benefit from LT.

Liver transplantation for acute-on-chronic liver failure predicts post-transplant mortality and impaired long-term quality of life

BACKGROUND

Among patients with cirrhosis, candidate selection and timing of liver transplantation (LT) remain problematic. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe complication of cirrhosis with excessive short-term mortality rates under conservative therapeutic measures. The role of LT in the management of ACLF is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of ACLF on post-LT survival and long-term graft function, morbidity and quality of life (QoL).

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed all cirrhosis patients undergoing LT at our institution between 01/2009 and 12/2014. Median follow-up was 8.7 years. Long-term LT survivors were interviewed with established QoL questionnaires.

RESULTS

Of 250 LT recipients, 98 fulfilled the EASL diagnostic ACLF criteria before LT ('ACLF-LT'). ACLF associated with reduced post-LT survival (HR for 6-month survival compared to non-ACLF-LT: 0.18; HR for 10-year-survival: 0.47; both P < .001) depending on ACLF severity before LT, and mainly inferred by infections both in the early and late phases after LT. In ACLF patients, CLIFc-OFs was superior to MELD score in predicting post-LT mortality. Long-term follow-up revealed comparable graft functions and comorbidity burden in ACLF-LT and non-ACLF-LT survivors. ACLF-LT patients reported significantly impaired health and QoL, particularly with regards to anxiety/depression and physical and psychological health (all P < .05). LabMELD score, presence of ACLF at LT and duration of post-LT intensive care associated with poor long-term QoL.

CONCLUSION

ACLF predicts impaired post-LT survival. While long-term graft function and extrahepatic comorbidities are comparable in ACLF and non-ACLF LT survivors, the strikingly low QoL in many ACLF-LT recipients warrants consideration during follow-up patient care.

Expanding Indications of Liver Transplantation in Spain: Consensus Statement and Recommendations by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The number of patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT) in Spain has halved from 2015 to 2019 due to the reduction of candidates with hepatitis C and the successful implementation of nonheart beating donation programs across the country. The Spanish Society for Liver Transplantation has committed to take advantage of this situation by developing consensus around potential areas to expand the current indications for LT. The consensus group was composed of 6 coordinators and 23 expert delegates, each one representing an LT institution in Spain.

METHODS

A modified Delphi approach was used to identify areas to expand indications for LT and to build consensus around paramount aspects, such as inclusion criteria and waitlist prioritization within each area. The scientific evidence and strength of recommendations were assessed by the "Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation" system.

RESULTS

The consensus process resulted in the identification of 7 potential areas to expand criteria in LT: recipient's age, hepatocellular carcinoma, alcoholic hepatitis, acute-on-chronic liver failure, hilar and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and unresectable liver metastases of colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

We present the main recommendations issued for each topic, together with their core supporting evidence. These recommendations may allow for expanding criteria for LT homogenously in Spain and may provide a guidance to other countries/institutions facing a similar scenario.

Model for end-stage liver disease-sodium underestimates 90-day mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is unclear whether the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score captures the clinical severity of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared observed 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF with expected mortality based on the calculated MELD-Na and examined the consequences of underestimating clinical severity.

METHODS

We identified patients with ACLF during hospitalization for cirrhosis in 127 VA hospitals between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2014. We examined MELD-Na scores by ACLF presence and grade. We used actual and observed 90-day mortality to estimate a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by ACLF presence and grade. We used transplant center-specific median MELD-Na at transplantation (MMaT) to estimate the proportion likely to receive priority for liver transplantation (LT) based on MELD-Na alone.

RESULTS

Of 71,894 patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis, 18,979 (26.4%) patients met the criteria for ACLF on admission. The median (P25-P75) MELD-Na on admission was 26 (22-30) for ACLF compared to 15 (12-20) for patients without ACLF; it was 24 (21-27), 27 (23-31), and 32 (26-37) for ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively. At 90 days, 40.0% of patients with ACLF died (30.8%, 41.6% and 68.8% with ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively) compared to 21.3% of patients without ACLF. Compared to the expected death rate based on MELD-Na, mortality risk was higher for patients with ACLF, SMR (95% CI): 1.52 (1.48-1.52), 1.46 (1.41-1.51), 1.50 (1.44-1.55), 1.66 (1.58-1.74) for overall ACLF, ACLF-1, -2 and -3, respectively. Only 9.1% of patients with ACLF reached the national median MELD-Na of 35 and between 17.3% to 35.1% exceeded the MMaT at any center. During index admission, 589 (0.8%) patients with ACLF were considered for LT evaluation and 16 (0.1%) were listed for LT.

CONCLUSIONS

In a US cohort of hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis, MELD-Na did not capture 90-day mortality risk in patients with ACLF. Patients with ACLF are at a disadvantage in the current MELD-Na-based system.

LAY SUMMARY

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition marked by multiple organ failures in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a high risk of death. Liver transplantation may be the only curative treatment for these patients. A score called model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) helps guide donor liver allocation for transplantation in the United States. The higher the MELD-Na score in a patient, the more likely that a patient receives a liver transplant. Our study data showed that MELD-Na score underestimates the risk of dying at 90 days in patients with ACLF. Thus, physicians need to start liver transplant evaluation early instead of waiting for a high MELD-Na number.

Longterm Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Recent data have demonstrated >80% 1-year survival probability after liver transplantation (LT) for patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, longterm outcomes and complications are still unknown for this population. Our aim was to compare longterm patient and graft survival among patients transplanted across all grades of ACLF. We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing database for the years 2004-2017. Patients with ACLF were identified using the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure criteria. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used to determine patient and graft survival and associated predictors of mortality in adjusted models. A total of 56,801 patients underwent transplantation of which 31,024 (54.6%) had no ACLF, 8757 (15.4%) had ACLF grade 1, 9039 (15.9%) had ACLF grade 2, and 7891 (14.1%) had ACLF grade 3. The 5-year patient survival after LT was lower in the ACLF grade 3 patients compared with the other groups (67.7%; P < 0.001), although after year 1, the percentage decrease in survival was similar among all groups. Infection was the primary cause of death among all patient groups in the first year. Infection was the primary cause of death among all patient groups in the first year. After the first year, infection was the main cause of death in patients transplanted with ACLF grade 1 (32.1%), ACLF grade 2 (33.9%), and ACLF grade 3 (37.6%), whereas malignancy was the predominant cause of death in those transplanted with no ACLF (28.5%). In conclusion, patients transplanted with ACLF grade 3 had lower 5-year survival as compared with patients with ACLF grades 0-2, but mortality rates were not significantly different after the first year following LT. Graft survival was excellent across all ACLF groups.

Dynamic Prognostication in Transplant Candidates with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

We aimed to extensively investigate clinical markers that are sufficiently dynamic for prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Defined by the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) criteria, patients with ACLF on the liver transplant waitlist in a tertiary center were retrospectively reviewed. Laboratory results and severity scores at three time points (days 1, 7, and 14 after admission) were analyzed. From 2015 to 2019, 64 patients with ACLF were enrolled, of which 24 received a liver transplant from 22 live donors. The hospital mortality rate was 31% (8% for transplant; 45% for nontransplant groups), and the 3-month survival was crucial for determining long-term outcomes. The number of significant variables for mortality, and, specifically, the hazards of international normalized ratio of prothrombin time (INR) and APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) score were increased within two weeks. In multivariable analysis, INR and AARC score (D-14) were associated with poor survival and liver transplant was a protective factor in all patients, while AARC score (D-14) was significant in the nontransplant group. AARC score at day 14 is an independent risk factor for mortality in ACLF. Liver transplant from live donors reversed poor outcomes in patients with ACLF in a timely manner.

Vitamin D levels in liver transplantation recipients and early postoperative outcomes: Prospective observational DLiverX study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In critically ill patients with liver disease, vitamin D deficiency is associated with higher disease severity, increased frequency of infections, and worse outcomes. This study sought to describe the trend of vitamin D in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) recipients and its association with outcomes.

METHODS

Prospective observational study of 67 consecutive OLT recipients enrolled between September, 2016 and August, 2017 at IRCCS-ISMETT, Palermo (Italy). Trend of vitamin D levels and potential factors influencing it levels were evaluated through a generalized linear mixed regression model.

RESULTS

Sixty-four (95.5%) recipients were vitamin D deficient (<20 ng/ml), with a median value of 8.8 ng/ml [6.2-12.9], and forty-seven of these (70.1%) showed severe deficiency (<12 ng/ml) at baseline, 7.9 ng/ml [5.4-8.9]. The baseline vitamin D showed an inverse correlation with liver disease severity: Child-Pugh, MELD score, bilirubin, INR, and organ failure (p < 0.01) at baseline. Vitamin D increased on postoperative day (POD) 28 compared with POD1: +4.5 ng/ml, C.I. 95% 3.6-5.3 ng/ml, p < 0.01. Lower baseline vitamin D, donor age, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma (negative impact, all p < 0.05), and intra-operative bypass (positive impact at POD 28, p < 0.01) were associated with variation of vitamin D levels after transplantation. Incomplete graft recovery was associated with lower vitamin D on POD28: 8.2 ± 4.4 versus 13.8 ± 9.4 ng/ml, p < 0.01; the odds ratio (OR) was 0.84; CI 95% 0.73-0.97, p = 0.014. The OR for infections within POD 28 was inversely associated with baseline vitamin D: 0.87; CI 95% 0.79-0.98, p = 0.02, and with vitamin D level at baseline <12 ng/ml: OR 6.44; CI 95% 1.66-24.94; p < 0.01.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative Vitamin D is correlated with disease severity, and was highly associated with invasive infection in the first 28 PODs. After OLT, the value on POD 28 had a strong association with graft function.

Patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure are disadvantaged by model for end-stage liver disease-based organ allocation policy

BACKGROUND

Mortality for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) may be underestimated by the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score.

AIM

To assess waitlist outcomes across varying grades of ACLF among a cohort of patients listed with a MELD-Na score ≥35, and therefore having similar priority for liver transplantation.

METHODS

We analysed the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, years 2010-2017. Waitlist outcomes were evaluated using Fine and Gray's competing risks regression.

RESULTS

We identified 6342 candidates at listing with a MELD-Na score ≥35, of whom 3122 had ACLF-3. Extra-hepatic organ failures were present primarily in patients with four to six organ failures. Competing risks regression revealed that candidates listed with ACLF-3 had a significantly higher risk for 90-day waitlist mortality (Sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.78) relative to patients with lower ACLF grades. Subgroup analysis of ACLF-3 revealed that both the presence of three organ failures (SHR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.20-1.63) or four to six organ failures at listing (SHR = 3.01; 95% CI 2.54-3.58) was associated with increased waitlist mortality. Candidates with four to six organ failures also had the lowest likelihood of receiving liver transplantation (SHR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68). The Share 35 rule was associated with reduced 90-day waitlist mortality among the full cohort of patients listed with ACLF-3 and MELD-Na score ≥35 (SHR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.49-0.70). However, Share 35 rule implementation was not associated with reduced waitlist mortality among patients with four to six organ failures (SHR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.58-1.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD-Na score disadvantages patients with ACLF-3, both with and without extra-hepatic organ failures. Incorporation of organ failures into allocation policy warrants further exploration.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: liver transplant provides survival benefit in patients with acute on chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Data on liver transplantation (LT) in acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) are scanty.

AIM

To perform meta-analysis on outcomes after LT for ACLF compared with ACLF patients not receiving LT or with LT recipients for indications other than ACLF.

METHODS

We pooled data from 12 studies on LT outcomes among ACLF patients.

RESULTS

Among nine studies, 22 238 LT recipients for ACLF vs 30 791 for non-ACLF were younger by 1.1 years, less males (64% vs 66.4%), and higher model for end-stage disease score by 14.5 (14.4-14.6), P < 0.01 for all. Post-transplant patient survival at 30 day, 90 day, 6 months, 1 year and 5 years was lower in ACLF: 96.2% vs 98.1%, 92.6% vs 96.2%, 89.9% vs 94.4%, 86.0% vs 91.9%, 66.9% vs 80.7% respectively, P < 0.01 for all. ACLF patients stayed longer in hospital and ICU by 5.7 and 10.5 days respectively, P < 0.001, with similar post-transplant complications [74.4% vs 55.5%, P = 0.12]. Among three studies, 441 LT recipients for ACLF vs 301 ACLF patients not selected for LT had better 30 day and 1 year survival: 95.2% vs 60% and 85.3% vs 28.2% respectively, P < 0.001. Outcomes were worse in ACLF-3 and better for ACLF-1 and ACLF-2 patients at the time of LT.

CONCLUSION

In this pooled analysis with a large sample size across the globe, LT for select patients with ACLF provided survival benefit. However, larger prospective studies are needed to further refine selection criteria, especially for ACLF-3 patients as basis for improving outcomes and optimal utilisation of scarce donor pool.

Liver Transplantation for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Science or Fiction?

Acute clinical deterioration of a patient with chronic liver disease remains a decisive time point both in terms of medical management and prognosis. This condition, also known as acute decompensation (AD), is an important event determining a crossroad in the trajectory of patients. A significant number of patients with AD may develop hepatic or extrahepatic organ failure, or both, which defines the syndrome acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and ACLF is associated with a high morbidity and short-term mortality. ACLF may occur at any phase during chronic liver disease and is pathogenetically defined by systemic inflammation and immune metabolic dysfunction. When organ failures develop in the presence of cirrhosis, especially extrahepatic organ failures, liver transplantation (LT) may be the only curative treatment. This review outlines the evidence supporting LT in ACLF patients, highlighting the role of timing, bridging to LT, and possible indicators of futility. Importantly, prospective studies on ACLF and transplantation are urgently needed.

Early Transplantation in Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: Who and When

Purpose of Review

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a unique syndrome that afflicts patients with chronic liver disease and results in high short-term mortality, > 50% at 28 days in patients with severe ACLF (grade 3, ACLF-3). Given this prognosis, there is an urgent need to understand risk factors for this condition, as well as selection criteria for patients who may benefit from liver transplantation (LT).

Recent Findings

Several studies have identified risk factors for developing ACLF, including higher model for end-stage liver disease score, anemia, and morbid obesity, as well ACLF mortality, such as infection, increasing organ failures, and higher white blood cell count. Prognostic tools are now available as online calculators. Regarding LT in ACLF, data suggest that even patients with ACLF-3 may do well after LT, with 1-year survival > 80% in several studies. Improvement in organ failures prior to LT, higher donor quality, and lack of mechanical ventilation further improve outcomes. Importantly, ACLF-3 patients may have higher short-term wait list mortality than patients listed status-1a, suggesting that increased LT prioritization may be warranted.

Summary

ACLF is a high-mortality condition that frequently responds well to LT. Ongoing efforts to understand the natural history of ACLF and predictors of improved post-LT survival will facilitate LT criteria for this condition, which may ultimately include increased LT prioritization for selected patients.