Phylogenetic and epidemic modeling of rapidly evolving infectious diseases

Phylodynamic analysis of a viral infection network

Viral infections by sexual and droplet transmission routes typically spread through a complex host-to-host contact network. Clarifying the transmission network and epidemiological parameters affecting the variations and dynamics of a specific pathogen is a major issue in the control of infectious diseases. However, conventional methods such as interview and/or classical phylogenetic analysis of viral gene sequences have inherent limitations and often fail to detect infectious clusters and transmission connections. Recent improvements in computational environments now permit the analysis of large datasets. In addition, novel analytical methods have been developed that serve to infer the evolutionary dynamics of virus genetic diversity using sample date information and sequence data. This type of framework, termed "phylodynamics," helps connect some of the missing links on viral transmission networks, which are often hard to detect by conventional methods of epidemiology. With sufficient number of sequences available, one can use this new inference method to estimate theoretical epidemiological parameters such as temporal distributions of the primary infection, fluctuation of the pathogen population size, basic reproductive number, and the mean time span of disease infectiousness. Transmission networks estimated by this framework often have the properties of a scale-free network, which are characteristic of infectious and social communication processes. Network analysis based on phylodynamics has alluded to various suggestions concerning the infection dynamics associated with a given community and/or risk behavior. In this review, I will summarize the current methods available for identifying the transmission network using phylogeny, and present an argument on the possibilities of applying the scale-free properties to these existing frameworks.

Positive selection pressure on the B/C domains of the E2-gene of classical swine fever virus in endemic areas under C-strain vaccination

In Cuba, classical swine fever (CSF) has become an endemic disease with several outbreaks each year, despite the implemented vaccination program. Interestingly, a trend towards a milder presentation of the disease has been observed among the animals during the last years. This study aimed to assess positive selection pressure acting on partial E2 gene of CSF viruses to gain insights into the mechanisms governing virulence and the driving forces of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) evolution in swine populations under regular vaccination. Selection pressure analysis were performed to detect positive selection acting on a particular lineage as well as among sites of the E2-B/C-domain of CSFV nucleotide sequences, reported in a previous study and in the present work, several models, available in the CODEML module of PAML 4.3, were used. In addition, a representative Cuban CSF isolate was assessed in an experimental infection trial for their clinical virulence in order to expand the knowledge regarding CSF viruses circulating in pig populations. The viral genomes sequenced in this study were grouped in a defined cluster within the genotype 1.2, as it has been reported previously for Cuban CSF viruses. The selection pressure analysis didn't find evidence of positive selection (dN/dS of>1) along any branch. The positive selective pressure analysis estimated six new sites under positive selection on E2 partial gene analysed. Besides, the clinical manifestations of the CSF-disease were related mainly to a mild course of the illness. The high number of positively selected sites suggests that these changes could be associated to viral evasion of the host-immune response. These observations highlight a possible association between escape viral variants and the alterations observed in the virulence and pathogenesis of the virus. Therefore, while the vaccination programs have not led to a genotype change, alterations in virulence were suggested to arise.