Mathematical models and lymphatic filariasis control: endpoints and optimal interventions

Prolonged persistence of residual Wuchereria bancrofti infection after cessation of diethylcarbamazine-fortified salt programme

A diethylcarbamazine (DEC)-fortified salt intervention programme was implemented between 1982 and 1986 in Karaikal district, Union territory of Pondicherry, south India, to control Culex transmitted bancroftian filariasis. The intervention reduced the microfilaria (Mf) rate from 4.49% to 0.08%. To eliminate the residual microfilaraemia, the health department detected and treated Mf carriers from 1987 to 2005 and mass-administered drugs in 2004 and 2005. Surveillance from 1987 to 2005 revealed persistent microfilaraemia in 0.03-0.42% of the population. In 2006, we conducted a more detailed Mf survey and a child antigenaemia (Ag) survey in 15 urban wards and 17 rural villages. These surveys showed an overall Mf rate of 0.46% in the high-risk urban areas and 0.18% in the rural areas; none of the sampled children was positive for Ag. All detected Mf carriers were >20 years old. The age of the youngest Mf carrier was 30 years in urban and 21 years in rural areas, which suggests that transmission was interrupted and there was no incidence of new Mf case after cessation of DEC salt programme. Eleven of 15 urban and 15 of 17 villages were totally free from microfilaraemia. Nevertheless, three of 15 surveyed urban localities and two of 17 villages showed >1% Mf rate. Thus, it seems that (i) post-intervention very low levels of microfilaraemia can continue as long as 20 years; (ii) 0.60-0.70% Mf rate is a safe level and at this level recrudescence of infection may not occur; (iii) there can be isolated localities with >1% Mf rate and their detection for further intervention measures could be challenging in larger control/elimination programmes and (iv) the residual infection mostly gets concentrated in the adult population, in underdeveloped urban areas and in historically highly endemic or large endemic rural areas. These groups and areas should be targeted with rigorous intervention measures such as mass drug administration to eliminate the residual infection.

Role of vector control in the global program to eliminate lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major cause of acute and chronic morbidity in the tropical and subtropical parts of the world. The availability of safe, single-dose, drug treatment regimens capable of suppressing microfilaremia to very low levels, along with improvements in techniques for diagnosing infection, has resulted in the targeting of this major mosquito-borne disease for global elimination. The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) was launched in 2000 with the principal objective of breaking the cycles of transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti and Brugia spp. through the application of annual mass drug administrations (MDAs) to entire at-risk populations. Although significant progress in initiating MDA programs in endemic countries has been made, emerging challenges to this approach have raised questions regarding the effectiveness of using MDA alone to eliminate LF without the inclusion of supplementary vector control. Here, we review advances in knowledge of vector ecology, vector-parasite relationships, and both empirical and theoretical evidence regarding vector management to assess the feasibility and strategic value of including vector control in the GPELF initiative to achieve the global elimination of LF.

LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages

LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.

Global eradication of lymphatic filariasis: the value of chronic disease control in parasite elimination programmes

The ultimate goal of the global programme against lymphatic filariasis is eradication through irrevocable cessation of transmission using 4 to 6 years of annual single dose mass drug administration. The costs of eradication, managerial impediments to executing national control programmes, and scientific uncertainty about transmission endpoints, are challenges to the success of this effort, especially in areas of high endemicity where financial resources are limited. We used a combined analysis of empirical community data describing the association between infection and chronic disease prevalence, mathematical modelling, and economic analyses to identify and evaluate the feasibility of setting an infection target level at which the chronic pathology attributable to lymphatic filariasis--lymphoedema of the extremities and hydroceles--becomes negligible in the face of continuing transmission as a first stage option in achieving the elimination of this parasitic disease. The results show that microfilaria prevalences below a threshold of 3.55% at a blood sampling volume of 1 ml could constitute readily achievable and sustainable targets to control lymphatic filarial disease. They also show that as a result of the high marginal cost of curing the last few individuals to achieve elimination, maximal benefits can occur at this threshold. Indeed, a key finding from our coupled economic and epidemiological analysis is that when initial uncertainty regarding eradication occurs and prospects for resolving this uncertainty over time exist, it is economically beneficial to adopt a flexible, sequential, eradication strategy based on controlling chronic disease initially.

Complex ecological dynamics and eradicability of the vector borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The current global efforts to control the morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases affecting developing countries--such as HIV/AIDS, polio, tuberculosis, malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)-have led to an increasing focus on the biological controllability or eradicability of disease transmission by management action. Here, we use an age-structured dynamical model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to show how a quantitative understanding of the dynamic processes underlying infection persistence and extinction is key to evaluating the eradicability of this macroparasitic disease.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We investigated the persistence and extinction dynamics of lymphatic filariasis by undertaking a numerical equilibrium analysis of a deterministic model of parasite transmission, based on varying values of the initial L3 larval density in the system. The results highlighted the likely occurrence of complex dynamics in parasite transmission with three major outcomes for the eradicability of filariasis. First, both vector biting and worm breakpoint thresholds are shown to be complex dynamic entities with values dependent on the nature and magnitude of vector-and host specific density-dependent processes and the degree of host infection aggregation prevailing in endemic communities. Second, these thresholds as well as the potential size of the attractor domains and hence system resilience are strongly dependent on peculiarities of infection dynamics in different vector species. Finally, the existence of multiple stable states indicates the presence of hysteresis nonlinearity in the filariasis system dynamics in which infection thresholds for infection invasion are lower but occur at higher biting rates than do the corresponding thresholds for parasite elimination.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The variable dynamic nature of thresholds and parasite system resilience reflecting both initial conditions and vector species-infection specificities, and the existence of hysteresis loop phenomenon, suggests that eradication of filariasis may require taking a more flexible and locally relevant approach to designing elimination programmes compared to the current command and control approach advocated by the global programme.

Vector control complements mass drug administration against bancroftian filariasis in Tirukoilur, India

OBJECTIVE

To determine the role of vector control in further decreasing the transmission of bancroftian filariasis achieved by mass drug administration and the long-term impact on filariometric indices.

METHODS

Three rounds of annual mass drug administration, with diethylcarbamazine and ivermectin, were complemented by vector control (mainly using polystyrene beads) in villages of Tirukoilur, south India, during 1995-99. Subsequently, drug administration is being carried out with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole or diethylcarbamazine alone. We evaluated the impact of mass drug administration used alone or in conjunction with vector control (from 1995 to 2005) on vector transmission indices (such as transmission intensity index, monthly biting rate, monthly transmission potential and annual transmission potential). We analysed data on filarial infection in the community to estimate the prevalence of microfilaraemia and antigenaemia using chi2 analysis and Fisher's exact test.

FINDINGS

Vector density greatly decreased in villages where vector control was used as an adjunct to mass drug administration and almost no infective mosquitoes were found in the small numbers still remaining. Filarial antigenaemia was low and continued to decrease significantly in the age group 15-25 years in villages receiving mass drug administration with vector control in contrast to villages receiving only mass drug administration.

CONCLUSION

The gains of mass drug administration were sustained only with the integration of vector control measures. We advocate the incorporation of vector control in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis as it can potentially decrease the time required for eliminating lymphatic filariasis.

Diagnostic tools for filariasis elimination programs

The ambitious and exciting Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) is largely based on a strategy of mass drug administration (MDA) of repeated rounds of antifilarial medications to endemic populations around the world. Diagnostic tools are important to GPELF because they affect decisions regarding where to distribute MDA, how to measure its effects, how to define targets and endpoints for stopping MDA, and how to monitor populations for possible resurgence of filariasis transmission following suspension of MDA. This article reviews available diagnostic tests for filariasis and their potential use as tools for different phases of filariasis elimination programs.

Mathematical models and lymphatic filariasis control: monitoring and evaluating interventions

Monitoring and evaluation are crucially important to the scientific management of any mass parasite control programme. Monitoring enables the effectiveness of implemented actions to be assessed and necessary adaptations to be identified; it also determines when management objectives are achieved. Parasite transmission models can provide a scientific template for informing the optimal design of such monitoring programmes. Here, we illustrate the usefulness of using a model-based approach for monitoring and evaluating anti-parasite interventions and discuss issues that need addressing. We focus on the use of such an approach for the control and/or elimination of the vector-borne parasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis.