51
|
Ke Y, Fu B, Zhang W. Semi-varying coefficient multinomial logistic regression for disease progression risk prediction. Stat Med 2016; 35:4764-4778. [DOI: 10.1002/sim.7034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2015] [Revised: 05/27/2016] [Accepted: 06/13/2016] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Ke
- Department of Operational Research and Financial Engineering; Princeton University; Princeton 08540 NJ U.S.A
| | - Bo Fu
- Administrative Data Research Centre for England and Institute of Child Health; University College London; London NW1 2DA U.K
- Centre for Biostatistics and Arthritis Research UK Epidemiology Unit; The University of Manchester; Manchester M13 9PL U.K
| | - Wenyang Zhang
- Department of Mathematics; The University of York; York YO10 5DD U.K
| |
Collapse
|
52
|
Druce KL, Jones GT, Macfarlane GJ, Verstappen SM, Basu N. The Longitudinal Course of Fatigue in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register. J Rheumatol 2015; 42:2059-65. [DOI: 10.3899/jrheum.141498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/24/2015] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Objective.Fatigue is common and burdensome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Despite RA fatigue progression varying significantly between individuals in practice, existing longitudinal analyses only examine symptom advancement on a population level. This study aimed to determine fatigue trajectories at an individual level and to characterize those patients with the poorest prognosis, with a view to enabling earlier interventions.Methods.Patients with RA reporting clinically relevant baseline fatigue (≥ 20 mm on a 0–100 mm visual analog scale) were identified from a longterm inflammatory polyarthritis cohort (the Norfolk Arthritis Register). Fatigue changes from baseline to 1- and 4-year followups were calculated, and sex-stratified group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) determined trajectories of the symptom between which baseline characteristics were compared.Results.Among 338 patients, only minimal average changes were observed between recruitment to 1 year (6.0 mm, SD 26.9) and 4 years (5.5 mm, SD 29.3). This was despite 45.6% and 40.7% of participants reporting clinically significant improvements (≥ 10 mm) at these respective followups. GBTM revealed varied trajectories of fatigue, which for both sexes consisted of Improved (men, n = 48 and women, n = 81) or persistent Moderate-high paths (n = 54, n = 105), and further included a persistent High trajectory in women (n = 50). Participants who followed persistent trajectories were best distinguished from improvers by patient-reported rather than demographic or clinical variables.Conclusion.Among patients with RA presenting with clinically relevant fatigue, distinct longitudinal symptom trajectories were identified on an individual level despite nominal average changes in fatigue on a group level. It is possible to identify and characterize subgroups of participants who report persistent fatigue and should therefore be targeted to receive future fatigue-alleviating interventions.
Collapse
|
53
|
Barnabe C, Sun Y, Boire G, Hitchon CA, Haraoui B, Thorne JC, Tin D, van der Heijde D, Curtis JR, Jamal S, Pope JE, Keystone EC, Bartlett S, Bykerk VP. Heterogeneous Disease Trajectories Explain Variable Radiographic, Function and Quality of Life Outcomes in the Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort (CATCH). PLoS One 2015; 10:e0135327. [PMID: 26301589 PMCID: PMC4547697 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2015] [Accepted: 07/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Our objective was to identify distinct trajectories of disease activity state (DAS) and assess variation in radiographic progression, function and quality of life over the first two years of early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA). The CATCH (Canadian early ArThritis CoHort) is a prospective study recruiting ERA patients from academic and community rheumatology clinics in Canada. Sequential DAS28 scores were used to identify five mutually exclusive groups in the cohort (n = 1,586) using growth-based trajectory modeling. Distinguishing baseline sociodemographic and disease variables, treatment required, and differences in radiographic progression and quality of life measures over two years were assessed. The trajectory groups are characterized as: Group 1 (20%) initial high DAS improving rapidly to remission (REM); Group 2 (21%) initial moderate DAS improving rapidly to REM; Group 3 (30%) initial moderate DAS improving gradually to low DAS; Group 4 (19%) initial high DAS improving continuously to low DAS; and Group 5 (10%) initial high DAS improving gradually only to moderate DAS. Groups differed significantly in age, sex, race, education, employment, income and presence of comorbidities. Group 5 had persistent steroid requirements and the highest biologic therapy use. Group 2 had lower odds (OR 0.22, 95%CI 0.09 to 0.58) and Group 4 higher odds (OR 1.94, 95%CI 0.90 to 4.20) of radiographic progression compared to Group 1. Group 1 had the best improvement in physical function (Health Assessment Questionnaire 1.08 (SD 0.68) units), Physical Component Score (16.4 (SD 10.2) units), Mental Component Score (9.7 (SD 12.5) units) and fatigue (4.1 (SD 3.3) units). In conclusion, distinct disease activity state trajectories explain variable outcomes in ERA. Early prediction of disease course to tailor therapy and addressing social determinants of health could optimize outcomes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Cheryl Barnabe
- Department of Medicine and Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Ye Sun
- Division of Rheumatology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Gilles Boire
- Department of Medicine, Universite de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
| | - Carol A. Hitchon
- Department of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Boulos Haraoui
- Rheumatic Disease Unit, Institut de Rheumatologie, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Diane Tin
- Southlake Regional Health Centre, Newmarket, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Jeffrey R. Curtis
- University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America
| | - Shahin Jamal
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Edward C. Keystone
- Division of Rheumatology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Vivian P. Bykerk
- Division of Rheumatology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Hospital for Special Surgery, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | | |
Collapse
|
54
|
Contreras-Yáñez I, Pascual-Ramos V. Window of opportunity to achieve major outcomes in early rheumatoid arthritis patients: how persistence with therapy matters. Arthritis Res Ther 2015; 17:177. [PMID: 26162892 PMCID: PMC4499189 DOI: 10.1186/s13075-015-0697-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2015] [Accepted: 06/23/2015] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Benefits of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARD) in early rheumatoid arthritis patients (ERAP) will be achieved if patients follow prescribed treatment. Objective was to investigate whether timing of first non-persistence period and/or duration of persistence during the first 4 years of follow-up predicted disease outcomes at the 5th year in a cohort of ERAP, initiated in 2004. Patients and Methods Up to February 2015, charts of 107 ERAP with at least 5 years of follow-up and prospective 6-month assessments of disease activity, disability and persistence were reviewed. Non-persistence was defined as omission of DMARD and/or corticosteroids for at least 7 consecutive days; regarding methotrexate, one weekly missing dose was considered non-persistence. Persistence was recorded through an interview (up to 2008) and thereafter through a questionnaire; persistence duration was recorded in months of continuous medicationtaking. At the 5th year, disease activity was defined according to Disease Activity Score (DAS)28, and disability according to Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Descriptive statistics and linear and Cox regression analyses were used. Results At study entry, patients were more frequently middle-aged (39.1 ± 13.3 years) and female (88.8 %), as well as more likely to have high disease activity and disability. Over the first 4 years of follow-up, 54.2 % of the patients had indications for oral corticosteroids and all traditional DMARDs. Almost 70 % had at least one period of non-persistence, and their follow-up (median, 25th–75th interquartile range) to first non-persistence period was 13 months (1–31). Persistence duration during the first 4 years predicted subsequent DAS28 (in addition to gender and baseline DAS28) and HAQ (in addition to age). During the 5th year, 68 patients (56 women) achieved sustained remission (DAS28 < 2.6). In female population (n = 95), baseline DAS28 (odds ratio [OR], 0.65; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.83; p = 0.001) and persistence duration (OR, 1.04; 95 % CI, 1–1.08; p = 0.05) were predictors. Also, 84 patients achieved sustained function (HAQ <0.21), and baseline DAS28 and age were the only predictors. Timing of first non-persistence period did not impact outcomes. Conclusions Persistence duration with DMARDs within the first 4 years of RA predicted subsequent favorable outcomes in ERAP; additional predictors were younger age, male gender and lower disease activity at diagnosis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Irazú Contreras-Yáñez
- Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, Colonia Belisario Domínguez Sección XVI, 14080, Tlalpan, DF, Mexico.
| | - Virginia Pascual-Ramos
- Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, Colonia Belisario Domínguez Sección XVI, 14080, Tlalpan, DF, Mexico.
| |
Collapse
|