A dynamic model of pneumococcal infection in the United States: Implications for prevention through vaccination

Outpatient antibiotic prescribing and nonsusceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae in the United States, 1996-2003

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae infections have become increasingly complicated and costly to treat with the spread of antibiotic resistance. We evaluated the relationship between antibiotic prescribing and nonsusceptibility among invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) isolates.

METHODS

Outpatient antibiotic prescription data for penicillins, cephalosporins, macrolides, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole were abstracted from the IMS Health Xponent database to calculate the annual number of prescriptions per capita. We analyzed IPD data from 7 of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Active Bacterial Core surveillance sites (population, 18.6 million) for which data were available for the entire time period under study (1996-2003). Logistic regression models were used to assess whether sites with high antibiotic prescribing rates had a high proportion of nonsusceptible and serotype 19A IPD.

RESULTS

Yearly prescribing rates during the period 1996-2003 for children <5 years of age decreased by 37%, from 4.23 to 2.68 prescriptions per capita per year (P < .001), and those for persons ≥5 years of age decreased by 42%, from 0.98 to 0.57 prescriptions per capita per year (P < .001); increases in azithromycin prescribing were noted for both groups. Sites with high rates of antibiotic prescribing had a higher proportion of IPD nonsusceptibility than did low-prescribing sites (P = .003 for penicillin, P < .001 for every other antibiotic class). Cephalosporin and macrolide prescribing were associated with penicillin and multidrug nonsusceptibility and serotype 19A IPD (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In sites where antibiotic prescribing is high, the proportion of nonsusceptible IPD is also high, suggesting that local prescribing practices contribute to local resistance patterns. Cephalosporins and macrolides seem to be selecting for penicillin- and multidrug-resistant pneumococci, as well as serotype 19A IPD. Antibiotic use is a major factor contributing to the spread of antibiotic resistance; strategies to reduce antibiotic resistance should continue to include judicious use of antibiotics.

Contribution of mathematical modeling to the fight against bacterial antibiotic resistance

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Modeling of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria responsible for human disease has developed considerably over the last decade. Herein, we summarize the main published studies to illustrate the contribution of models for understanding both within-host and population-based phenomena. We then suggest possible topics for future studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Model building of bacterial resistance has involved epidemiologists, biologists and modelers with two different objectives. First, modeling has helped largely in identifying and understanding the factors and biological phenomena responsible for the emergence and spread of resistant strains. Second, these models have become important decision support tools for medicine and public health.

SUMMARY

Major improvements of models in the coming years should take into account specific pathogen characteristics (resistance mechanisms, multiple colonization phenomena, cooperation and competition among species) and better description of the contacts associated with transmission risk within populations.

Inferior quantitative and qualitative immune responses to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in infants with nasopharyngeal colonization by Streptococcus pneumoniae during the primary series of immunization

BACKGROUND

Heightened immunogenicity, measured one month after the primary series of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), in African children was previously hypothesized to be due to increased rates of nasopharyngeal pneumococcal colonization during early infancy.

METHODS

We analyzed the effect of selected vaccine-serotype (6B, 19F and 23F) nasopharyngeal colonization prior to the first PCV dose or when colonized for the first time prior to the second or third (2nd/3rd) PCV dose on serotype quantitative and qualitative antibody responses.

RESULTS

Colonization prior to receiving the first PCV was associated with lower geometric mean antibody concentrations (GMCs) one month after the third dose of PCV and six months later to the colonizing-serotype. Colonized infants also had lower geometric mean titers (GMTs) on opsonophagocytosis activity assay (OPA) and a lower proportion had titers ≥ 8 against the colonizing serotypes (19F and 23F) post vaccination. Colonization occurring only prior to the 2nd/3rdPCV dose was also associated with lower GMCs and OPA GMTs to the colonizing-serotype. The effect of colonization with serotypes 19F and 23F prior to PCV vaccination had a greater effect on a lower proportion of colonized infants having OPA titers ≥ 8 than the effect of colonization on the lower proportion with antibody ≥ 0.35 μg/ml.

CONCLUSION

Infant nasopharyngeal colonization at any stage before completing the primary series of PCV vaccination was associated with inferior quantitative and qualitative antibody responses to the colonizing-serotype.

Modelling effectiveness of herd level vaccination against Q fever in dairy cattle

Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii. The control of this infection in cattle is crucial: infected ruminants can indeed encounter reproductive disorders and represent the most important source of human infection. In the field, vaccination is currently advised in infected herds but the comparative effectiveness of different vaccination protocols has never been explored: the duration of the vaccination programme and the category of animals to be vaccinated have to be determined. Our objective was to compare, by simulation, the effectiveness over 10 years of three different vaccination strategies in a recently infected dairy cattle herd.A stochastic individual-based epidemic model coupled with a model of herd demography was developed to simulate three temporal outputs (shedder prevalence, environmental bacterial load and number of abortions) and to calculate the extinction rate of the infection. For all strategies, the temporal outputs were predicted to strongly decrease with time at least in the first years of vaccination. However, vaccinating only three years was predicted inadequate to stabilize these dynamic outputs at a low level. Vaccination of both cows and heifers was predicted as being slightly more effective than vaccinating heifers only. Although the simulated extinction rate of the infection was high for both scenarios, the outputs decreased slower when only heifers were vaccinated.Our findings shed new light on vaccination effectiveness related to Q fever. Moreover, the model can be further modified for simulating and assessing various Q fever control strategies such as environmental and hygienic measures.

Shifting genetic structure of invasive serotype 19A pneumococci in the United States

BACKGROUND

Following 7-valent conjugate vaccine introduction in the United States in 2000, invasive serotype (sero19A) pneumococcal disease (IPD) emerged rapidly. Sero19A IPD incidence increased slightly during 2005-2008 (from 2.3 cases to 2.5 cases per 100,000 population), whereas sero19A penicillin resistance (defined as a minimum inhibitor concentration [MIC] ≥2 μg/mL) increased significantly (from 28.7% to 43.7%). To better understand changes, we characterized sero19A isolates recovered during 2004-2008.

METHODS

We performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing on all 2767 sero19A IPD isolates identified through the Centers for Disease Control Active Bacterial Core surveillance during 2004-2008. We genotyped 1804 (96.3%) of 1874 sero19A isolates recovered during 2005-2007 and all 148 year 2008 sero19A isolates from children <5 years of age.

RESULTS

Resistant clonal complex (CC) 320/271(19A) increased from 20.9% (115 of 550) to 32.9% (208 of 633; P < .001) of IPD isolates during 2005-2007, which paralleled increased sero19A penicillin resistance (from 28.7% [163 of 567 isolates] to 39.5% [261 of 661 isolates]; P < .001). Total IPD due to 320/271(19A) increased during 2005-2007 and increased from 2.1 to 3.6 cases per 100,000 population during 2005-2008 in children <5 years of age. The penicillin-susceptible/intermediate, putative vaccine-escape CC695(19A) increased from 7.5% (41 of 550) to 13.6% (85 of 633) of sero19A isolates during 2005-2007 (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

Sero19A rates may have plateaued; however, clonal shifts are increasing resistance. Increased IPD caused by CC320/271(19A) and CC695(19A) could reflect additional selective advantages in addition to resistance.

Impact of conjugate 7-valent vaccination in Belgium: addressing methodological challenges

In Belgium, the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was introduced into the national schedule in 2007. The early impact of PCV7 vaccination on paediatric invasive disease was estimated by comparing pre- and post-vaccination incidence from national surveillance. In children <2 year-olds, vaccine-serotype incidence declined by 96% but non-vaccine-types increased 2-3-fold. Overall invasive disease decreased by 23-46%, depending on adjustment for under-reporting and pre-vaccine trends. Non-vaccine-types 1 and 19A had increased before PCV7 use, suggesting the contribution of other factors. Estimation of PCV7 impact comparing pre- and post-vaccination data should adjust for pre-vaccine trends, and serotype dynamics need further exploration.

Natural antibodies against several pneumococcal virulence proteins in children during the pre-pneumococcal-vaccine era: the generation R study

The currently available pneumococcal vaccines do not protect against all serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae. A shift toward nonvaccine serotypes causing colonization and invasive disease has occurred, and studies on protein-based vaccines have been undertaken. We assessed the association between specific antibodies against pneumococcal virulence proteins and colonization and respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Additionally, we assessed the extent to which colonization induces a humoral immune response. Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from children at 1.5, 6, 14, and 24 months of age were cultured for pneumococcus. Serum samples were obtained at birth and at 6, 14, and 24 months (n = 57 children providing 177 serum samples). Data were collected prior to the pneumococcal vaccine era. IgG, IgA, and IgM levels against 17 pneumococcal protein vaccine candidates were measured using a bead-based flow cytometry technique (xMAP; Luminex Corporation). Information regarding RTIs was questionnaire derived. Levels of IgG against all proteins were high in cord blood, decreased in the first 6 months and increased again thereafter, in contrast to the course of IgA and IgM levels. Specific antibodies were induced upon colonization. Increased levels of IgG against BVH-3, NanA, and SP1003 at 6 months, NanA, PpmA, PsaA, SlrA, SP0189, and SP1003 at 14 months, and SlrA at 24 months were associated with a decreased number of RTIs in the third year of life but not with colonization. Maternal antipneumococcal antibodies did not protect against pneumococcal colonization and infection. Certain antibodies against pneumococcal virulence proteins, some of which are induced by colonization, are associated with a decreased number of RTIs in children. This should be taken into account in future pneumococcal vaccine studies.

Pneumococcal serotypes in children in 4 European countries

After heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was marketed in France, Spain, Belgium, and England and Wales (United Kingdom), invasive disease from non-PCV7 serotypes (NVT) increased. Adjusted serotype-specific incidences among children <15 years of age were compared between 1999-2002 (prevaccine) and 2005-2006 (postmarketing). Vaccine coverage increased to approximately 32%-48% in France, Spain, and Belgium but remained <1% in England and Wales. Serotype 1 incidence rose in all age groups and countries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.3-4.2; p<0.004), independently of PCV7 use, but incidence of serotypes 7F and 19A increased most in France, Spain, and Belgium (IRR 1.9-16.9 in children <5 years; p<0.001), where PCV7 coverage was greater. Vaccine-induced replacement of PCV7 serotypes possibly contributed to NVT increases, as did secular trends. New vaccines targeting these serotypes are available, but serotype dynamics needs further exploration that accounts for underreporting and prevaccine trends.