Population cycles in birds of the grouse family (Tetraonidae)

The effect of aggressiveness on the population dynamics of a territorial bird

A central issue in ecology lies in identifying the importance of resources, natural enemies and behaviour in the regulation of animal populations. Much of the debate on this subject has focused on animals that show cyclic fluctuations in abundance. However, there is still disagreement about the role of extrinsic (food, parasites or predators) and intrinsic (behaviour) factors in causing cycles. Recent studies have examined the impact of natural enemies, although spatial patterns resulting from restricted dispersal or recruitment are increasingly recognized as having the potential to influence unstable population dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that population cycles in a territorial bird, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, are caused by delayed density-dependent changes in the aggressiveness and spacing behaviour of males. Here we show that increasing aggressiveness experimentally for a short period in autumn reduced recruitment and subsequent breeding density by 50%, and changed population trajectories from increasing to declining. Intrinsic processes can therefore have fundamental effects on population dynamics.

Analysing noisy time-series: describing regional variation in the cyclic dynamics of red grouse

We develop a method for describing the periodicity of noisy 'quasi-cyclic' time-series based on integrals of their power spectra corresponding to different frequency intervals that we use to classify time-series as 'strongly cyclic', 'weakly cyclic' or 'non-cyclic'. We apply this analysis to over 300 time-series of shooting records of red grouse from 289 moors located in 20 regions of the UK. Time-series from 63 of these populations were not distinguishable from white noise, but significant evidence of cyclic behaviour in the 2-15 year range was detected in time-series from 183 other populations. Time-series from the remaining 43 populations, though distinguishable from white noise, did not exhibit consistently recognizable cyclic behaviour in the same period range. Cyclic populations exhibit an average periodicity of 8.3 years, but only 20% of these populations cycle with a period of four to six years. Geographically, grouse populations are remarkable more for their dynamic heterogeneity than for any observable regularity. The relationship between the location of populations and their dynamical behaviour is weak. The prevalence of cyclic time-series within a region did not significantly differ from the overall average value. Moor region explained 22% of the variation in periodicity, differing from the overall mean in three regions. Average periodicity increases significantly from 6.8 to 8.9 years from the most southerly to most northerly populations. However, latitude explains only 5.3% of the variation in periodicity of the cycles.