Likelihood ratio: A powerful tool for incorporating the results of a diagnostic test into clinical decisionmaking

Validation of the kidney failure risk equation for end-stage kidney disease in Southeast Asia

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE), which predicts ESKD risk among patients with CKD, has not been validated in primary care clinics in Southeast Asia (SEA). Therefore, we aimed to (1) evaluate the performance of existing KFRE equations, (2) recalibrate KFRE for better predictive precision, and (3) identify optimally feasible KFRE thresholds for nephrologist referral and dialysis planning in SEA.

METHODS

All patients with CKD visiting nine primary care clinics from 2010 to 2013 in Singapore were included and applied 4-variable KFRE equations incorporating age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). ESKD onset within two and five years were acquired via linkage to the Singapore Renal Registry. A weighted Brier score (the squared difference between observed vs predicted ESKD risks), bias (the median difference between observed vs predicted ESKD risks) and precision (the interquartile range of the bias) were used to select the best-calibrated KFRE equation.

RESULTS

The recalibrated KFRE (named Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA) performed better than existing and other recalibrated KFRE equations in terms of having a smaller Brier score (square root: 2.8% vs. 4.0-9.3% at 5 years; 2.0% vs. 6.1-9.1% at 2 years), less bias (2.5% vs. 3.3-5.2% at 5 years; 1.8% vs. 3.2-3.6% at 2 years), and improved precision (0.5% vs. 1.7-5.2% at 5 years; 0.5% vs. 3.8-4.2% at 2 years). Area under ROC curve for the Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA equations were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93 to 0.95) at 5 years and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.97) at 2 years. The optimally feasible KFRE thresholds were > 10-16% for 5-year nephrologist referral and > 45% for 2-year dialysis planning. Using the Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA, an estimated 82 and 89% ESKD events were included among 10% of subjects at highest estimated risk of ESKD at 5-year and 2-year, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA performs better than existing KFREs and warrants implementation in primary care settings in SEA.

Validity Of The Self-Reported Domains Of Subjective Extent Of Nonadherence (DOSE-Nonadherence) Scale In Comparison With Electronically Monitored Adherence To Cardiovascular Medications

BACKGROUND

Self-report measures are important tools for assessing adherence to medication. Many of these scales, however, combine the extent of and reasons for nonadherence in one instrument, and have limited reliability and validity. The present study was the first to assess the convergent validity of the self-reported Domains of Subjective Extent of Nonadherence (DOSE-Nonadherence) scale with electronically measured adherence to a single cardiovascular medication.

METHODS

English- and Spanish-speaking patients evaluated for acute coronary syndrome (N=165; n=68 and n= 97, respectively) were recruited from an urban academic emergency department. Post-hospital discharge, participants were mailed a medication bottle with an electronic cap (eCAP) that recorded bottle openings. At 1 month, participants completed the 3-item DOSE-Nonadherence scale, which assessed the extent to which patients missed, skipped, or did not take the eCAP-monitored medication over the past 7 days. Correlations, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated using eCAP-monitored correct dosing adherence over the same 7-day time period as the reference standard.

RESULTS

The most commonly assessed medication was aspirin (70.91%). Correlations between self-reported and electronically monitored adherence were low-to-moderate: English-speaking participants (n=68), r=0.24, p=0.046; Spanish-speaking participants (n=97), r=0.18, p=0.071. Sensitivity was low (0.47 English, 0.28 Spanish) and specificity was moderate (0.77 English, 0.88 Spanish).

CONCLUSIONS

The DOSE-Nonadherence scale was associated with electronically monitored adherence to a single daily cardiovascular medication in English-speaking participants, but had weak diagnostic properties when using electronic adherence as the reference standard.

Computed tomography of the chest in unilateral pleural effusions: outcome of the British Thoracic Society guideline

Background

The guidelines from the British Thoracic Society (BTS) regarding the investigation of unilateral pleural effusions recommend computed tomography (CT) in exudates. We decided to investigate if clinicians follow BTS guidelines' recommendations with respect to CT in patients with unilateral pleural effusions. Secondly, to investigate the diagnostic consequences of following and not following this recommendation.

Methods

The study was a retrospective, non-randomized study including consecutive patients referred to our tertiary centers in 2013-2016 because of unilateral pleural effusion. Patients undergoing chest CT for unilateral pleural effusion of unknown cause after thoracentesis and chest X-ray were included. Patients were categorized as having pleural exudates or transudates, according to Light's criteria, if applicable. We registered use of CT, and calculated diagnostic values.

Results

In total, 323 of the 465 included patients underwent CT (69%). CT was performed in the majority of patients not having an exudate (transudates: n=40; 54%; Light's criteria not assessed: n=111; 67%). ¹⁸F-FDG positron emission tomography (PET)/CT without prior CT was performed in 32 patients with an exudate (58%). The sensitivity of a non-guideline supported CT (70%) was significantly higher compared to a guideline supported CT (47%), P value <0.045. The post-test probability of a positive guideline-supported CT [likelihood ratio (LR) positive 3.26] for a later diagnosis of thoracic malignancy increased the probability from 25% to 52%. A negative CT (LR negative 0.62) decreased the probability to 17%. For a non-guideline-supported CT the numbers were (LR positive 3.42) 53% and (LR negative 0.38) 11%, respectively.

Conclusions

Clinicians appear not to follow BTS guidelines when deciding to perform chest CT. The relevance of this deviation is supported by the superior sensitivity of CT non-guideline supported CT. Overall, CT is associated with suboptimal sensitivity and negative predictive values for the diagnosis of thoracic malignancy.

A multisystem composite biomarker as a preliminary diagnostic test in bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVE

Diagnosis and management of bipolar disorder (BD) are limited by the absence of available laboratory tests. We aimed to combine data from different molecular levels and tissues into a composite diagnostic and state biomarker.

METHODS

Expression levels of 19 candidate genes in peripheral blood, plasma levels of BDNF, NT-3, IL-6 and IL-18, leukocyte counts, and urinary markers of oxidative damage to DNA and RNA were measured in 37 adult rapid-cycling patients with BD in different affective states during a 6- to 12-month period and in 40 age- and gender-matched healthy individuals in a longitudinal, repeated measures design comprising a total of 211 samples. A composite biomarker was constructed using data-driven variable selection.

RESULTS

The composite biomarker discriminated between patients with BD and healthy control individuals with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 and a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 71% corresponding with a moderately accurate test. Discrimination between manic and depressive states had a moderate accuracy, with an AUC of 0.82 and a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 40%.

CONCLUSION

Combining individual biomarkers across tissues and molecular systems could be a promising avenue for research in biomarker models in BD.

Comparison of the diagnostic value of symmetric dimethylarginine, cystatin C, and creatinine for detection of decreased glomerular filtration rate in dogs

BACKGROUND

Early detection of decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in dogs is challenging. Current methods are insensitive and new biomarkers are required.

OBJECTIVE

To compare overall diagnostic performance of serum symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) and serum cystatin C to serum creatinine, for detection of decreased GFR in clinically stable dogs, with or without chronic kidney disease (CKD).

ANIMALS

Ninety-seven client-owned dogs: 67 dogs with a diagnosis or suspicion of CKD and 30 healthy dogs were prospectively included.

METHODS

Prospective diagnostic accuracy study. All dogs underwent physical examination, systemic arterial blood pressure measurement, urinalysis, hematology and blood biochemistry analysis, cardiac and urinary ultrasound examinations, and scintigraphy for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (mGFR). Frozen serum was used for batch analysis of SDMA and cystatin C.

RESULTS

The area under the curve of creatinine, SDMA, and cystatin C for detection of an mGFR <30.8 mL/min/L was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.0), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.91-0.99), and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.79-0.93), respectively. The sensitivity of both creatinine and SDMA at their prespecified cutoffs (115 μmol/L [1.3 mg/dL] and 14 μg/dL) for detection of an abnormal mGFR was 90%. The specificity was 90% for creatinine and 87% for SDMA. When adjusting the cutoff for cystatin C to correspond to a diagnostic sensitivity of 90% (0.49 mg/L), specificity was lower (72%) than that of creatinine and SDMA.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE

Overall diagnostic performance of creatinine and SDMA for detection of decreased mGFR was similar. Overall diagnostic performance of cystatin C was inferior to both creatinine and SDMA.

Microscopic Bacteriuria Detected by Automated Urinalysis for the Diagnosis of Urinary Tract Infection

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the test performance of microscopic bacteriuria by automated urinalysis for presumptive urinary tract infection (UTI) in young children.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective cross-sectional study of children aged <2 years evaluated for UTI in a single large emergency department with paired automated microscopic urinalysis and culture. Test characteristics were calculated for automated microscopic bacteriuria and pyuria, and a practical diagnostic threshold of bacteriuria was determined. Standard test performance measures and receiver operator characteristic curves were generated. The diagnostic performance of bacteriuria was compared with microscopic pyuria.

RESULTS

Two thousand five hundred fifty-four children with a median age of 6.1 months were studied, 19% of whom had a positive urine culture. Automated microscopic bacteriuria ≥1+ resulted in a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 4.5 (95% CI, 3.9-5.2) and negative LR (LR-) of 0.52 (95% CI, 0.47-0.57). Pyuria alone (≥5 WBC/high-power field) had a LR+ of 4.5 (95% CI, 4.1-5.0) and a LR- of 0.14 (95% CI, 0.11-0.18), whereas the addition of automated microscopic bacteriuria ≥1+ improved the LR+ to 16.3 (95% CI, 12.6-21.1) but raised the LR- to 0.51 (95% CI, 0.47-0.56). Test performance of automated microscopic bacteriuria measured by area under the curve analysis was lower (0.73; 95% CI, 0.70-0.76) than for pyuria (0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.93). Isolated automated microscopic bacteriuria without pyuria occurred in only 204 patients (8.0%), among whom only 20 (9.8%) had a positive urine culture.

CONCLUSIONS

Microscopic bacteriuria measured by automated urinalysis augments the diagnostic value of pyuria for identifying presumptive UTI in young children aged <2 years. Bacteriuria is diagnostically inferior to microscopic pyuria, and in children with bacteriuria without pyuria, presumptive UTI is unlikely.

Diagnostic ultrasound assessment of temporomandibular joints: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES:

The purpose of this systematic review was to determine the diagnostic capability of ultrasound to assess TMJ alterations as disc displacement (DD), joint effusion (JE) and condylar changes (CC) using 3D imaging modalities as reference standard.

METHODS:

Studies were gathered by searching several electronic databases and partial grey literature up to January eighth, 2018 without restrictions of language and time. The risk of bias was evaluated using the second version of Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic of Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2). The grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADEpro system) instrument was applied to assess the level of evidence across the studies.

RESULTS:

After applying the eligibility criteria, 28 studies were identified and synthesized. All studies were methodologically acceptable presenting low applicability concerns, although none of them fulfilled all QUADAS-2 criteria. The quantitative analysis included 22 studies, 2829 joints in total. The quality of the evidence evaluated by GRADE system suggested moderate confidence in estimating the outcomes.

CONCLUSION:

This systematic review demonstrated the ultrasound has acceptable capability to screen for DD and JE in TMD patients. For screening of condylar changes, ultrasound needs further studies using CT or CBCT as reference standard to support its use. More advanced imaging such as MRI can thereafter be used to confirm the diagnosis if deemed necessary.

Optimizing diagnostic biomarkers of iron deficiency anemia in community-dwelling Indian women and preschool children

The detection of iron deficiency anemia is challenged by the paucity of diagnostic tests demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity. Using two biomarkers, zinc-protoporphyrin/heme and hepcidin, we established the diagnostic cut-off values for iron deficiency anemia in preschool children and women. We randomly selected non-anemic individuals (n=190; women=90, children=100) and individuals with iron deficiency anemia (n=200; women=100, children=100) from a preexisting cohort of healthy preschool children and their mothers. The diagnostic performance of these biomarkers was estimated by analyzing receiver operating characteristic curves. Diagnostic cut-offs with a high predictive value for iron deficiency anemia were selected. Median zinc-protoporphyrin/heme and hepcidin values in non-anemic children were 49 μmol/mol heme and 42 ng/mL, respectively, and in non-anemic women these values were 66 μmol/mol heme and 17.7ng/mL, respectively. Children and women with iron deficiency anemia had higher zinc-protoporphyrin/heme ratios (children=151 μmol/mol heme and women=155 μmol/mol heme) and lower hepcidin levels (children=1.2ng/mL and women=0.6ng/mL). A zinc-protoporphyrin/heme ratio cut-off >90 μmole/mole heme in children and >107 μmole/mole heme in women was associated with a high diagnostic likelihood for iron deficiency anemia (children, likelihood ratio=20.2: women, likelihood ratio=10.8). Hepcidin cut-off values of ≤6.8ng/mL in children and ≤4.5ng/mL in women were associated with a high diagnostic likelihood for iron deficiency anemia (children, likelihood ratio=14.3: women, likelihood ratio=16.2). The reference ranges and cut-off values identified in this study provide clinicians with guidance for applying these tests to detect iron deficiency anemia. Erythrocyte zinc-protoporphyrin/heme ratio is a valid point-of-care biomarker to diagnose iron deficiency anemia.

Diagnostic accuracy of a digital fundus photographic system for detection of retinopathy of prematurity requiring treatment (ROP-RT)

Objectives

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a digital fundus photographic system that consists of taking fundus photographs by a trained technician using a RetCam^® shuttle and interpreting fundus images by an expert to detect Retinotapthy of Prematurity requiring treatment (ROP-RT) which defined as type I ROP according to the Early Treatment for ROP study (ETROP).

Materials and methods

One hundred infants were examined by (1) an expert ophthalmologist experienced in ROP care using indirect ophthalmoscopy; (2) digital wide-field imaging by a trained technician using a RetCam^® shuttle and images were sent remotely for interpretation by two ophthalmologists experienced in ROP care (Reader A, and Reader B); and (3) local ophthalmologists using indirect ophthalmoscopy. The diagnostic acurracy consisting of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) were calculated. Agreement between all examiners and readers were evaluated.

Results

A total of 100 infants (mean gestational age 31.1 weeks, mean birth weight 1,511.1 grams) participated in the study. Nine infants were classified as ROP-RT. Reader A and B had very good agreement in detection of ROP- RT (Kappa 1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.00). For reader A, diagnostic performance parameters (95% confidence intervals) for detecting ROP-RT were; sensitivity 100.0% (66.4, 100.0), specificity 97.8% (92.1, 99.7), PPV 81.8% (48.2, 97.7), NPV 100.0% (95.8, 100.0), LR+ 44.5 (11.3, 175.2), and LR- 0.1 (0.0, 0.8). For reader B these were; sensitivity 100.0% (66.4, 100.0), specificity 95.6% (89.0, 98.8), PPV 69.2% (38.6, 90.9), NPV 100.0% (95.8, 100.0), LR+ 22.5 (8.6, 58.6), LR- 0.1 (0.0, 0.8). No adverse events were reported.

Conclusions

Diagnosis of ROP-RT from RetCam^® images taken by trained technicians and evaluated remotely by an expert ophthalmologist had good diagnostic accuracy for screening purposes.

Diagnostic accuracy of three clinical dehydration scales: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically assess the diagnostic accuracy of the Clinical Dehydration Scale (CDS), the WHO Scale and the Gorelick Scale in identifying dehydration in children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE).

DESIGN

Three databases, two registers of clinical trials and the reference lists from identified articles were searched for diagnostic accuracy studies in children with AGE. The index tests were the CDS, WHO Scale and Gorelick Scale, and reference standard was the percentage loss of body weight. The main analysed outcomes were the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR) and negative LR.

RESULTS

Ten studies were included. In high-income countries, the CDS provided a moderate-to-large increase in the post-test probability of predicting moderate to severe (≥6%) dehydration (positive LR 3.9-11.79), but it was of limited value for ruling it out (negative LR 0.55-0.71). In low-income countries, the CDS showed limited value both for ruling in and ruling out moderate-to-severe dehydration. In both settings, the CDS showed poor diagnostic accuracy for ruling in or out no dehydration (<3%) or some dehydration (3%-6%). The WHO Scale showed no or limited value in assessing dehydration in children with diarrhoea. With one exception, the included studies did not confirm the diagnostic accuracy of the Gorelick Scale.

CONCLUSION

Limited evidence suggests that the CDS can help in ruling in moderate-to-severe dehydration (≥6%) in high-income settings only. The WHO and Gorelick Scales are not helpful for assessing dehydration in children with AGE.

Fracture Patterns Differ Between Osteogenesis Imperfecta and Routine Pediatric Fractures

BACKGROUND

It is important to estimate the likelihood that a pediatric fracture is caused by osteogenesis imperfecta (OI), especially the least severe type of OI (type 1).

METHODS

We reviewed records of 29,101 pediatric patients with fractures from 2003 through 2015. We included patients with closed fractures not resulting from motor vehicle accidents, gunshot wounds, nonaccidental trauma, or bone lesions. Patients with OI of any type were identified through International Classification of Diseases-9 code. We randomly sampled 500 pediatric patients in whom OI was not diagnosed to obtain a control (non-OI) group. We reviewed age at time of fracture, sex, fracture type, laterality, and bone and bone region fractured. Bisphosphonate use and OI type were documented for OI patients. Subanalysis of patients with type-1 OI was performed. The Fisher exact and χ tests were used to compare fracture rates between groups. P<0.05 was considered significant. Positive likelihood ratios for OI were calculated by fracture pattern.

RESULTS

The non-OI group consisted of 500 patients with 652 fractures. The OI group consisted of 52 patients with 209 fractures. Non-OI patients were older at the time of fracture (mean, 9.0±5.0 y) than OI patients (mean, 5.5±4.4 y) (P<0.001). OI patients had more oblique, transverse, diaphyseal, and bilateral long-bone fractures than non-OI patients (all P<0.001). Non-OI patients had more buckle (P=0.013), metaphyseal (P<0.001), and physeal (P<0.001) fractures than OI patients. For patients with type-1 OI and long-bone fractures (n=18), rates of transverse and buckle fractures were similar compared with controls. Transverse humerus (15.2), olecranon (13.8), and diaphyseal humerus (13.0) fractures had the highest positive likelihood ratios for OI, and physeal (0.09) and supracondylar humerus (0.1) fractures had the lowest.

CONCLUSIONS

Transverse and diaphyseal humerus and olecranon fractures were most likely to indicate OI. Physeal and supracondylar humerus fractures were least likely to indicate OI. Radiographic fracture pattern is useful for estimating likelihood of OI.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

The Possible Use of Preoperative Natriuretic Peptides for Discriminating Low Versus Moderate-High Surgical Risk Patient

Perioperative risk scores for patients undergoing noncardiac surgery are generally considered inaccurate, poor, or, at best, modest. We propose estimating a patient’s pretest and posttest probability of cardiac morbidity and death using the preoperative scoring system plus the negative likelihood ratio from brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal proB-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) plasma levels. Our clinical challenge scenario showed a pretest probability of postoperative major cardiac complications with the patient risk factor as 6.6% for the Revised Cardiac Risk Index and between 1% and 5% (intermediate risk) per the recent European Society of Cardiology and the European Society of Anesthesiologist guidelines for surgical risk estimation. In fact, the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association guidelines consider the same surgical procedure for elevated risk. The posttest probability takes advantage of a negative likelihood ratio from BNP plasma levels, with patient risk factor reduced to 0.8% and surgical risk to 1.1%. In the same way, the pretest American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program score decreased from 18.8% to 3.5% for severe complications and from 0.9% to 0.1% for death at ≤90 days. Following noncardiac surgery, postoperative complications and mortality are often cardiac in nature. The negative likelihood ratio of BNP and NT-proBNP plasma levels provides a quick, low-cost tool for recognizing and reclassifying the cardiovascular risk of those undergoing noncardiac surgery, thereby singling out low- versus moderate-high-risk surgical patients.

DEVELOPMENT OF CLINICAL RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR OSTEOPOROSIS (OSTEORISKAPP) USING A SYNDROMIC APPROACH

CONTEXT

DEXA is recommended for osteoporosis screening. However, the rate of screening with DEXA is very low. Therefore, methods that can be used more easily and cost effectively are needed.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to develop a clinical risk assessment tool of osteoporosis (OSTEORISKAPP) by using syndromic approach.

DESIGN

A methodological study was performed.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Three hundred and fifty-six participants who are above 50 years old are participants of study and take history and physical examination. Positive likelihood ratio (LR), pre and post test probability, is calculated. A logistic regression analysis and a ROC analysis are made with the model constructed by those criteria.

RESULTS

Eighteen different clinical risk indices are diagnosed. According to LR, 4 of these criteria are minimally effective, 11 of them are weakly effective and 3 of them are medium effective criteria According to results of logistic regression analysis, back pain, waist pain, and usage of cortisone for more than 3 months, vertebra tenderness in physical examination, having dorsal kyphosis and being obese are turned out to be statistically significant in 89.9% confidence interval. AUC is found to be 0.948 and diagnostic test is found to have perfect distinction ability.

CONCLUSION

Syndromic diagnostic criteria that will be used for osteoporosis screening of population and that is cost effective, no need to refer, practical, reliable and has tried to be developed.

High-frequency conductive hearing loss as a diagnostic test for incomplete ossicular discontinuity in non-cholesteatomatous chronic suppurative otitis media

Chronic suppurative otitis media, with or without cholesteatoma, may lead to erosion of the ossicles and discontinuity of the ossicular chain. In incomplete ossicular discontinuity (IOD), partial erosion of the ossicles occurs, but some sound transmission is noted throughout the ossicular chain. High-frequency conductive hearing loss (HfCHL) has been considered a hallmark of incomplete ossicular discontinuity. This study aims to evaluate the use of HfCHL as a preoperative predictor of IOD in patients with non-cholesteatomatous chronic suppurative otitis media. The HfCHL test was defined as the preoperative air-bone gap (ABG) at 4 kHz minus the average of the ABG at 0.25 and 0.5 kHz. The test was applied in 328 patients before surgery and compared to intraoperative findings as the gold standard. At surgery, 201 (61.3%) patients had an intact ossicular chain, 44 (13.4%) had a complete ossicular discontinuity, and 83 (25.3%) exhibited an IOD. The best cutoff level was calculated as 10 dB. The HfCHL test to diagnose IOD had a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 92% with a post-test probability of 78% and a likelihood ratio of 10.2. We concluded that the HfCHL test is highly effective in predicting IOD in patients with non-cholesteatomatous chronic suppurative otitis media and that it should be used routinely as a screening test prior to surgery.

A standardised method for interpreting the association between mutations and phenotypic drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

A clear understanding of the genetic basis of antibiotic resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis is required to accelerate the development of rapid drug susceptibility testing methods based on genetic sequence.Raw genotype-phenotype correlation data were extracted as part of a comprehensive systematic review to develop a standardised analytical approach for interpreting resistance associated mutations for rifampicin, isoniazid, ofloxacin/levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, amikacin, kanamycin, capreomycin, streptomycin, ethionamide/prothionamide and pyrazinamide. Mutation frequencies in resistant and susceptible isolates were calculated, together with novel statistical measures to classify mutations as high, moderate, minimal or indeterminate confidence for predicting resistance.We identified 286 confidence-graded mutations associated with resistance. Compared to phenotypic methods, sensitivity (95% CI) for rifampicin was 90.3% (89.6-90.9%), while for isoniazid it was 78.2% (77.4-79.0%) and their specificities were 96.3% (95.7-96.8%) and 94.4% (93.1-95.5%), respectively. For second-line drugs, sensitivity varied from 67.4% (64.1-70.6%) for capreomycin to 88.2% (85.1-90.9%) for moxifloxacin, with specificity ranging from 90.0% (87.1-92.5%) for moxifloxacin to 99.5% (99.0-99.8%) for amikacin.This study provides a standardised and comprehensive approach for the interpretation of mutations as predictors of M. tuberculosis drug-resistant phenotypes. These data have implications for the clinical interpretation of molecular diagnostics and next-generation sequencing as well as efficient individualised therapy for patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Multiple functional networks modeling for autism spectrum disorder diagnosis

Despite countless studies on autism spectrum disorder (ASD), diagnosis relies on specific behavioral criteria and neuroimaging biomarkers for the disorder are still relatively scarce and irrelevant for diagnostic workup. Many researchers have focused on functional networks of brain activities using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) to diagnose brain diseases, including ASD. Although some existing methods are able to reveal the abnormalities in functional networks, they are either highly dependent on prior assumptions for modeling these networks or do not focus on latent functional connectivities (FCs) by considering discriminative relations among FCs in a nonlinear way. In this article, we propose a novel framework to model multiple networks of rsfMRI with data-driven approaches. Specifically, we construct large-scale functional networks with hierarchical clustering and find discriminative connectivity patterns between ASD and normal controls (NC). We then learn features and classifiers for each cluster through discriminative restricted Boltzmann machines (DRBMs). In the testing phase, each DRBM determines whether a test sample is ASD or NC, based on which we make a final decision with a majority voting strategy. We assess the diagnostic performance of the proposed method using public datasets and describe the effectiveness of our method by comparing it to competing methods. We also rigorously analyze FCs learned by DRBMs on each cluster and discover dominant FCs that play a major role in discriminating between ASD and NC. Hum Brain Mapp 38:5804-5821, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of Spot Urine Protein to Creatinine Ratio to 24-Hour Proteinuria to Identify Important Change Over Time in Proteinuria in Lupus

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine whether spot urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR) accurately measures the change in proteinuria compared with 24-hour proteinuria (24H-P).

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis on patients' paired visits and paired urine samples for PCR and 24H-P. Patients with both abnormal 24H-P (>0.5 g/d) and PCR (>0.05 g/mmol) or both normal 24H-P (≤0.5 g/d) and PCR (≤0.05 g/mmol) at baseline visit were identified.The first follow-up visit with partial recovery (50% decrease in proteinuria) or complete recovery (≤0.5 g/d) was identified for those with abnormal baseline 24H-P, and new proteinuria (>0.5 g/d) was identified for those with normal 24H-P. Twenty-four-hour urine collection and PCR end-point frequencies were compared. Twenty-four-hour urine collection results were converted to 24H-PCR. Twenty-four-hour PCR and PCR were utilized to measure the magnitude of change (by standardized response mean [SRM]) in patients who achieved the end points.

RESULTS

Of 230 patients, at baseline, 95 patients had abnormal and 109 had normal 24H-P and PCR. On follow-up, 57 achieved partial recovery, and 53 achieved complete recovery by 24H-P. Standardized response mean was -1.03 and -1.10 for 24H-PCR and PCR, respectively. By PCR, 53 patients had partial recovery, and 27 had complete recovery. Standardized response mean was -1.25 and -0.86 by 24H-PCR and PCR, respectively.For new proteinuria, 28 patients were identified by 24H-P and 21 by PCR. Twenty-four-hour PCR SRM was 0.80, and PCR SRM was 0.68.

CONCLUSIONS

Protein-to-creatinine ratio does not have sufficient accuracy compared with 24H-P for improvement and worsening to be used in lieu of 24H-P.

Cytokine Kinetics in Febrile Neutropenic Children: Insights on the Usefulness as Sepsis Biomarkers, Influence of Filgrastim, and Behavior of the IL-23/IL-17 Pathway

Background

The study aimed to describe the kinetics of various cytokines from day 1 to day 14 of the onset of fever in neutropenic children and to evaluate their performances as discriminators of sepsis in the first 24 hours of fever, the possible influence of filgrastim, and the functioning of the IL-23/IL-17 axis.

Methods

IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-10, IL-12/23p40, IL-21, IL-6, IL-8, IL-17, G-CSF, and GM-CSF were measured in plasma on days 1, 2, 3, 5, and 14 from the onset of fever in 35 patients.

Results

Thirteen patients (37.1%) developed sepsis. In mixed models, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and G-CSF showed higher estimated means in septic patients (P < 0.005), and IL-12/23p40 and IL-17 in nonseptic patients (P < 0.05). On day 1, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 appeared upregulated in patients who received filgrastim. Only IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and procalcitonin were useful as discriminators of sepsis. Associating the markers with each other or to a risk assessment model improved performance.

Conclusions

Cytokines kinetics showed proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory responses similar to what is described in nonneutropenic patients. IL-8, IL-6, IL-10, and procalcitonin are useful as early biomarkers of sepsis. Filgrastim upregulates expression of these markers, and we observed deficiency in the IL-23-IL-17 axis accompanying sepsis.

Usage of 1,3-β-D-Glucan for Early Detection of Invasive Mycoses and Outcome Parameter in Immunocompromised Critically Ill Patients

INTRODUCTION

Invasive fungal disease (IFD) remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients.

METHODS

Examination of 1,3-β-D-glucan (BDG) for IFD and as outcome parameter in immunocompromised critically ill patients with septic shock.

RESULTS

Thirty-two (69 %) out of 46 included patients had BDG beyond the cutoff of >80 pg/ml (mean 320 pg/ml). Twelve (37 %) had findings of Aspergillus spp. in BAL (mean BDG 413 pg/ml). EORTC/MSG guidelines classified these as probable invasive aspergillosis (IA)/IFD. Five (16 %) had candidaemia (mean BDG level 361 pg/ml). Sensitivity of 78 % (95 % CI 58-88 %) and specificity of 68 % (95 % CI 52-77 %) for IFD were found on the BDG Fungitell assay. In detail, a sensitivity of 73 % (95 % 58-84 %) and specificity of 83 % (95 % CI 68-93 %) for IA and a sensitivity of 77 % (CI 95 % 62-87 %) and specificity 53 % (95 % CI 37-73 %) for candidaemia were found. APACHE II, SOFA score and mortality rate were in the elevated BDG group significantly altered (26 vs. 21, p < 0.003; 15 vs. 13, p < 0.006; 72 vs. 50 %, p < 0.004).

CONCLUSION

1,3-β-D-glucan assay is helpful for early detection of IFD; moreover, elevated BDG levels can be used as a predictor for outcome in immunocompromised critically ill patients as presented in our study.

Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Describing the Diagnostic Accuracy of History, Physical Examination, Imaging, and Lumbar Puncture With an Exploration of Test Thresholds

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a rare, but serious etiology of headache. The diagnosis of SAH is especially challenging in alert, neurologically intact patients, as missed or delayed diagnosis can be catastrophic.

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to perform a diagnostic accuracy systematic review and meta-analysis of history, physical examination, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tests, computed tomography (CT), and clinical decision rules for spontaneous SAH. A secondary objective was to delineate probability of disease thresholds for imaging and lumbar puncture (LP).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and research meeting abstracts were searched up to June 2015 for studies of emergency department patients with acute headache clinically concerning for spontaneous SAH. QUADAS-2 was used to assess study quality and, when appropriate, meta-analysis was conducted using random effects models. Outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios. To identify test and treatment thresholds, we employed the Pauker-Kassirer method with Bernstein test indication curves using the summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

A total of 5,022 publications were identified, of which 122 underwent full-text review; 22 studies were included (average SAH prevalence = 7.5%). Diagnostic studies differed in assessment of history and physical examination findings, CT technology, analytical techniques used to identify xanthochromia, and criterion standards for SAH. Study quality by QUADAS-2 was variable; however, most had a relatively low risk of biases. A history of neck pain (LR+ = 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.2 to 7.6) and neck stiffness on physical examination (LR+ = 6.6; 95% CI = 4.0 to 11.0) were the individual findings most strongly associated with SAH. Combinations of findings may rule out SAH, yet promising clinical decision rules await external validation. Noncontrast cranial CT within 6 hours of headache onset accurately ruled in (LR+ = 230; 95% CI = 6 to 8,700) and ruled out SAH (LR- = 0.01; 95% CI = 0 to 0.04); CT beyond 6 hours had a LR- of 0.07 (95% CI = 0.01 to 0.61). CSF analyses had lower diagnostic accuracy, whether using red blood cell (RBC) count or xanthochromia. At a threshold RBC count of 1,000 × 10(6) /L, the LR+ was 5.7 (95% CI = 1.4 to 23) and LR- was 0.21 (95% CI = 0.03 to 1.7). Using the pooled estimates of diagnostic accuracy and testing risks and benefits, we estimate that LP only benefits CT-negative patients when the pre-LP probability of SAH is on the order of 5%, which corresponds to a pre-CT probability greater than 20%.

CONCLUSIONS

Less than one in 10 headache patients concerning for SAH are ultimately diagnosed with SAH in recent studies. While certain symptoms and signs increase or decrease the likelihood of SAH, no single characteristic is sufficient to rule in or rule out SAH. Within 6 hours of symptom onset, noncontrast cranial CT is highly accurate, while a negative CT beyond 6 hours substantially reduces the likelihood of SAH. LP appears to benefit relatively few patients within a narrow pretest probability range. With improvements in CT technology and an expanding body of evidence, test thresholds for LP may become more precise, obviating the need for a post-CT LP in more acute headache patients. Existing SAH clinical decision rules await external validation, but offer the potential to identify subsets most likely to benefit from post-CT LP, angiography, or no further testing.

Clinical Implications of Hip Flexion in the Measurement of Spinal Bone Mineral Density

The aim of this study was to investigate if differences in leg positioning affect spinal bone mineral density (BMD) measurements and the detection of low bone mass. Subjects included 1039 Japanese patients, 878 women and 161 men (mean ages: 67 and 71 years, respectively). Spinal BMD (L1-4) was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) with patients lying in 2 different positions: (1) supine on the scanning table with hips flexed and knees flexed over a 90° support pad (the standard position) and (2) simply supine (the supine position). Predictive indices were calculated for spinal DXA acquired with patients in the supine position. A BMD T-score of -2.5 or lower was set as the threshold for low bone mass. For the standard and the supine positions during scanning in women, BMDs were 0.911 and 0.915 g/cm(2), respectively; in men, they were 1.117  and 1.124 g/cm(2), respectively. The estimated systematic bias in BMD between the positions was 0.42% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.59; p = 0.009). Random errors in the densitometry measurements for the standard and supine positions were 0.66% and 0.84%, respectively. There was no significant difference between the errors (p= 0.164). The likelihood ratios of a positive and negative test for the detection of low bone mass following supine DXA were 121.0 and 0.066, respectively, compared with results acquired using the standard position. In conclusion, DXA measurements acquired with patients in the supine position slightly overestimated BMD vs the standard position. However, the clinical equivalency between the positioning methods for DXA is preserved to the extent that low bone mass can be reliably detected in the supine position.

Identifying Meningitis During an Anthrax Mass Casualty Incident: Systematic Review of Systemic Anthrax Since 1880

BACKGROUND

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a potential bioterrorism agent. Anthrax meningitis is a common manifestation of B. anthracis infection, has high mortality, and requires more aggressive treatment than anthrax without meningitis. Its rapid identification and treatment are essential for successful management of an anthrax mass casualty incident.

METHODS

Three hundred six published reports from 1880 through 2013 met predefined inclusion criteria. We calculated descriptive statistics for abstracted cases and conducted multivariable regression on separate derivation and validation cohorts to identify clinical diagnostic and prognostic factors for anthrax meningitis.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-two of 363 (36%) cases with systemic anthrax met anthrax meningitis criteria. Severe headache, altered mental status, meningeal signs, and other neurological signs at presentation independently predicted meningitis in the derivation cohort and were tested as a 4-item assessment tool for use during anthrax mass casualty incidents. Presence of any 1 factor on admission had a sensitivity for finding anthrax meningitis of 89% (83%) in the adult (pediatric) validation cohorts. Anthrax meningitis was unlikely in the absence of any of these signs or symptoms (likelihood ratio [LR]- = 0.12 [0.19] for adult [pediatric] cohorts), while presence of 2 or more made meningitis very likely (LR+ = 26.5 [30.0]). Survival of anthrax meningitis was predicted by treatment with a bactericidal agent (P = .005) and use of multiple antimicrobials (P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed an evidence-based assessment tool for screening patients for meningitis during an anthrax mass casualty incident. Its use could improve both patient outcomes and resource allocation in such an event.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Tests for Polyuria in Lithium-Treated Patients

In lithium-treated patients, polyuria increases the risk of dehydration and lithium toxicity. If detected early, it is reversible. Despite its prevalence and associated morbidity in clinical practice, it remains underrecognized and therefore undertreated. The 24-hour urine collection is limited by its convenience and practicality. This study explores the diagnostic accuracy of alternative tests such as questionnaires on subjective polyuria, polydipsia, nocturia (dichotomous and ordinal responses), early morning urine sample osmolality (EMUO), and fluid intake record (FIR). This is a cross-sectional study of 179 lithium-treated patients attending a general adult and an old age psychiatry service. Participants completed the tests after completing an accurate 24-hour urine collection. The diagnostic accuracy of the individual tests was explored using the appropriate statistical techniques. Seventy-nine participants completed all of the tests. Polydipsia severity, EMUO, and FIR significantly differentiated the participants with polyuria (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.646, 0.760, and 0.846, respectively). Of the tests investigated, the FIR made the largest significant change in the probability that a patient experiences polyuria (<2000 mL/24 hours; interval likelihood ratio, 0.18 and >3500 mL/24 hours; interval likelihood ratio, 14). Symptomatic questioning, EMUO, and an FIR could be used in clinical practice to inform the prescriber of the probability that a lithium-treated patient is experiencing polyuria.

A composite peripheral blood gene expression measure as a potential diagnostic biomarker in bipolar disorder

Gene expression in peripheral blood has the potential to inform on pathophysiological mechanisms and has emerged as a viable avenue for the identification of biomarkers. Here, we aimed to identify gene expression candidate genes and to explore the potential for a composite gene expression measure as a diagnostic and state biomarker in bipolar disorder. First, messenger RNA levels of 19 candidate genes were assessed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 37 rapid cycling bipolar disorder patients in different affective states (depression, mania and euthymia) during a 6-12-month period and in 40 age- and gender-matched healthy control subjects. Second, a composite gene expression measure was constructed in the first half study sample and independently validated in the second half of the sample. We found downregulation of POLG and OGG1 expression in bipolar disorder patients compared with healthy control subjects. In patients with bipolar disorder, upregulation of NDUFV2 was observed in a depressed state compared with a euthymic state. The composite gene expression measure for discrimination between patients and healthy control subjects on the basis of 19 genes generated an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (P < 0.0001) in sample 1, which was replicated with a value of 0.73 (P < 0.0001) in sample 2, corresponding with a moderately accurate test. The present findings of altered POLG, OGG1 and NDUFV2 expression point to disturbances within mitochondrial function and DNA repair mechanisms in bipolar disorder. Further, a composite gene expression measure could hold promise as a potential diagnostic biomarker.

Estimating negative likelihood ratio confidence when test sensitivity is 100%: A bootstrapping approach

Objectives Assessing high-sensitivity tests for mortal illness is crucial in emergency and critical care medicine. Estimating the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the likelihood ratio (LR) can be challenging when sample sensitivity is 100%. We aimed to develop, compare, and automate a bootstrapping method to estimate the negative LR CI when sample sensitivity is 100%. Methods The lowest population sensitivity that is most likely to yield sample sensitivity 100% is located using the binomial distribution. Random binomial samples generated using this population sensitivity are then used in the LR bootstrap. A free R program, "bootLR," automates the process. Extensive simulations were performed to determine how often the LR bootstrap and comparator method 95% CIs cover the true population negative LR value. Finally, the 95% CI was compared for theoretical sample sizes and sensitivities approaching and including 100% using: (1) a technique of individual extremes, (2) SAS software based on the technique of Gart and Nam, (3) the Score CI (as implemented in the StatXact, SAS, and R PropCI package), and (4) the bootstrapping technique. Results The bootstrapping approach demonstrates appropriate coverage of the nominal 95% CI over a spectrum of populations and sample sizes. Considering a study of sample size 200 with 100 patients with disease, and specificity 60%, the lowest population sensitivity with median sample sensitivity 100% is 99.31%. When all 100 patients with disease test positive, the negative LR 95% CIs are: individual extremes technique (0,0.073), StatXact (0,0.064), SAS Score method (0,0.057), R PropCI (0,0.062), and bootstrap (0,0.048). Similar trends were observed for other sample sizes. Conclusions When study samples demonstrate 100% sensitivity, available methods may yield inappropriately wide negative LR CIs. An alternative bootstrapping approach and accompanying free open-source R package were developed to yield realistic estimates easily. This methodology and implementation are applicable to other binomial proportions with homogeneous responses.

Infections and arthritis

Bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites can all cause arthritis of either acute or chronic nature, which can be divided into infective/septic, reactive, or inflammatory. Considerable advances have occurred in diagnostic techniques in the recent decades resulting in better treatment outcomes in patients with infective arthritis. Detection of emerging arthritogenic viruses has changed the epidemiology of infection-related arthritis. The role of viruses in the pathogenesis of chronic inflammatory arthritides such as rheumatoid arthritis is increasingly being recognized. We discuss the various causative agents of infective arthritis and emphasize on the approach to each type of arthritis, highlighting the diagnostic tests, along with their statistical accuracy. Various investigations including newer methods such as nucleic acid amplification using polymerase chain reaction are discussed along with the pitfalls in interpreting the tests.

Risk factors and screening instruments to predict adverse outcomes for undifferentiated older emergency department patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

A significant proportion of geriatric patients experience suboptimal outcomes following episodes of emergency department (ED) care. Risk stratification screening instruments exist to distinguish vulnerable subsets, but their prognostic accuracy varies. This systematic review quantifies the prognostic accuracy of individual risk factors and ED-validated screening instruments to distinguish patients more or less likely to experience short-term adverse outcomes like unanticipated ED returns, hospital readmissions, functional decline, or death.

METHODS

A medical librarian and two emergency physicians conducted a medical literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov using numerous combinations of search terms, including emergency medical services, risk stratification, geriatric, and multiple related MeSH terms in hundreds of combinations. Two authors hand-searched relevant specialty society research abstracts. Two physicians independently reviewed all abstracts and used the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies instrument to assess individual study quality. When two or more qualitatively similar studies were identified, meta-analysis was conducted using Meta-DiSc software. Primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) for predictors of adverse outcomes at 1 to 12 months after the ED encounters. A hypothetical test-treatment threshold analysis was constructed based on the meta-analytic summary estimate of prognostic accuracy for one outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 7,940 unique citations were identified yielding 34 studies for inclusion in this systematic review. Studies were significantly heterogeneous in terms of country, outcomes assessed, and the timing of post-ED outcome assessments. All studies occurred in ED settings and none used published clinical decision rule derivation methodology. Individual risk factors assessed included dementia, delirium, age, dependency, malnutrition, pressure sore risk, and self-rated health. None of these risk factors significantly increased the risk of adverse outcome (LR+ range = 0.78 to 2.84). The absence of dependency reduces the risk of 1-year mortality (LR- = 0.27) and nursing home placement (LR- = 0.27). Five constructs of frailty were evaluated, but none increased or decreased the risk of adverse outcome. Three instruments were evaluated in the meta-analysis: Identification of Seniors at Risk, Triage Risk Screening Tool, and Variables Indicative of Placement Risk. None of these instruments significantly increased (LR+ range for various outcomes = 0.98 to 1.40) or decreased (LR- range = 0.53 to 1.11) the risk of adverse outcomes. The test threshold for 3-month functional decline based on the most accurate instrument was 42%, and the treatment threshold was 61%.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk stratification of geriatric adults following ED care is limited by the lack of pragmatic, accurate, and reliable instruments. Although absence of dependency reduces the risk of 1-year mortality, no individual risk factor, frailty construct, or risk assessment instrument accurately predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older ED patients. Existing instruments designed to risk stratify older ED patients do not accurately distinguish high- or low-risk subsets. Clinicians, educators, and policy-makers should not use these instruments as valid predictors of post-ED adverse outcomes. Future research to derive and validate feasible ED instruments to distinguish vulnerable elders should employ published decision instrument methods and examine the contributions of alternative variables, such as health literacy and dementia, which often remain clinically occult.

Limited diagnostic value of routine screening of neonates with the urinary group B streptococcal antigen tests

BACKGROUND

A urinary latex test for detection of antigens from group B Streptococcus (GBS) has been used for the diagnosis of invasive GBS disease. However, the value of routine screening of infants with this test has not been determined.

METHODS

All infants admitted to Linkou Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital (Taoyuan, Taiwan) from January 2005 to May 2013 were screened with a urinary GBS antigen test (Wellcogen Strep B). Medical records were retrospectively reviewed to determine the diagnostic value of this test.

RESULTS

A total of 14,277 infants were tested and 38 cases had confirmed diagnoses of invasive GBS disease (34 bacteremia, 18 meningitis, 14 both), corresponding to a prevalence of 0.27% among our admitted infants. A total of 106 infants had positive results, but only 26 had confirmed disease. Among infants with confirmed disease, 12 had negative antigen results. These data allowed calculation of the sensitivity (68.4%), specificity (99.4%), positive predictive value (24.5%), and negative predictive value (99.9%). Adjusting for prevalence, the disease probability of a positive test result was 23.6%, and the probability of a negative post-test result was 0.09%. The absolute risk reduction of a negative result was very small (0.18%). Analysis of demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters indicated that late age of onset (≥7 days-old), presence of seizure, fever, respiratory distress, leukopenia, bandemia, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, metabolic acidosis, and elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) were significantly related to the presence of a true positive test result.

CONCLUSION

In our study population, the positive predictive value of the GBS antigen test was poor and the risk reduction of a negative result was weak. These results indicate that routine screening with this test has a limited diagnostic value. However, GBS antigen testing appears to be useful for early detection of disease in infants with certain demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors.

The physical phenotype of frailty for risk stratification of older medical inpatients

OBJECTIVES

To determine the usefulness of physical phenotype of frailty, cognitive impairment, and serum albumin for risk stratification of elderly medical impatients.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort study.

SETTING

A general internal medicine unit of a university hospital in Italy.

PARTICIPANTS

Inpatients with an average age of 80.8 ± 7.5 yr (N = 470).

MEASUREMENTS

Frailty was defined using the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Index, a parsimonious version of the physical phenotype (two of the following markers: weight loss, inability to rise five times from a chair, and exhaustion). Two frailty markers from non-physical dimensions were also evaluated: cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog score < 3) and low serum albumin on ward admission (< 3,5 gr/dl). Logistic regression adjusted for preadmission and admission-related confounders was used to investigate whether the physical phenotype of frailty and the two non-physical markers were associated with ward length of stay and unfavorable discharge (death plus any other ward discharge disposition different from direct return home). Areas Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUCs) and Likelihood Ratios (LRs) were used for evaluation of discriminatory ability and clinical usefulness of significant predictors.

RESULTS

The physical phenotype of frailty was associated with both study outcomes (p < 0.010) but the association was mainly mediated by chair standing ability. Non-physical markers were associated only with unfavourable discharge (p < 0.001). All of these predictors, either alone or in combination, had poor discriminatory ability (AUCs < 0.70) and poor clinical usefulness (+LRs near 1) for the study outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The physical phenotype of frailty appears of limited clinical use for risk stratification of older medical inpatients. Combination with markers from non-physical dimensions does not improve its prognostic abilities.

Predicting geriatric falls following an episode of emergency department care: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored.

OBJECTIVES

This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor's accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity.

METHODS

A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED.

RESULTS

A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk.

Validating a simple discharge planning tool following hospital admission for an isolated lower limb fracture

BACKGROUND

Early, accurate prediction of discharge destination from the acute hospital assists individual patients and the wider hospital system. The Trauma Rehabilitation and Prediction Tool (TRaPT), developed using registry data, determines probability of inpatient rehabilitation discharge for patients with isolated lower limb fractures.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were: (1) to prospectively validatate the TRaPT, (2) to assess whether its performance could be improved by adding additional demographic data, and (3) to simplify it for use as a bedside tool.

DESIGN

This was a cohort, measurement-focused study.

METHODS

Patients with isolated lower limb fractures (N=114) who were admitted to a major trauma center in Melbourne, Australia, were included. The participants' TRaPT scores were calculated from admission data. Performance of the TRaPT score alone, and in combination with frailty, weight-bearing status, and home supports, was assessed using measures of discrimination and calibration. A simplified TRaPT was developed by rounding the coefficients of variables in the original model and grouping age into 8 categories. Simplified TRaPT performance measures, including specificity, sensitivity, and positive and negative predictive values, were evaluated.

RESULTS

Prospective validation of the TRaPT showed excellent discrimination (C-statistic=0.90 [95% confidence interval=0.82, 0.97]), a sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 94%. All participants able to weight bear were discharged directly home. Simplified TRaPT scores had a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 88%.

LIMITATIONS

Generalizability may be limited given the compensation system that exists in Australia, but the methods used will assist in designing a similar tool in any population.

CONCLUSIONS

The TRaPT accurately predicted discharge destination for 80% of patients and may form a useful aid for discharge decision making, with the simplified version facilitating its use as a bedside tool.

Use and limits of (1-3)-β-d-glucan assay (Fungitell), compared to galactomannan determination (Platelia Aspergillus), for diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis

This study was undertaken to examine the performance of the Fungitell β-glucan (BG) assay, to compare it with that of the galactomannan (GM) test for the diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis (IA) in patients with hematological malignancies, and to examine the rates of false-positive BG and GM test results due to β-lactam antibiotics among sera of patients with Gram-positive or Gram-negative bacteremia and selected sera with false-positive results from the GM test. Serum samples from 105 patients with proven (n = 14) or probable (n = 91) IA, 97 hematology patients at risk for invasive fungal infections, 50 healthy blood donors, and 60 patients with bacteremia were used to study the sensitivities and specificities of the assays. The GM test was more specific than the BG assay (97% versus 82%, respectively; P = 0.0001) and the BG assay was more sensitive than the GM test (81% versus 49%, respectively; P < 0.0001) for IA diagnosis. The study of 49 separate batches of β-lactam antibiotics showed high and very similar rates of false-positive results for the GM and BG assays (29 and 33%, respectively; P = 0.82) but with an almost complete lack of concordance between the 2 assays. For patients with bacteremia, the rate of false-positive results was much higher with the BG test than with the GM test (37% versus 2%, respectively; P < 0.0001), with no significant difference between Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteremia. In conclusion, the BG test may be useful for the diagnosis of IA because of its high sensitivity in comparison with the GM test, but the overall benefit of this assay remains limited because of its inadequate specificity and its cost.

Understanding the direction of bias in studies of diagnostic test accuracy

Ordering and interpreting diagnostic tests is a critical part of emergency medicine (EM). In evaluating a study of diagnostic test accuracy, emergency physicians (EPs) need to recognize whether the study uses case-control or cross-sectional sampling and account for common biases. The authors group biases in studies of test accuracy into five categories: incorporation bias, partial verification bias, differential verification bias, imperfect gold standard bias, and spectrum bias. Other named biases are either equivalent to these biases or subtypes within these broader categories. The authors go beyond identifying a bias and predict the direction of its effect on sensitivity and specificity, providing numerical examples from published test accuracy studies. Understanding the direction of a bias may permit useful inferences from even a flawed study of test accuracy.

How “Proficient” Is Proficient? Comparison of English and Relative Proficiency Rating as a Predictor of Bilingual Listeners' Word Recognition

Purpose

The current study attempted to validate that English proficiency self-ratings predict bilinguals' recognition of English words as reported in Shi (2011) and to explore whether relative proficiency ratings (English vs. first language) improve prediction.

Method

One hundred and twenty-four participants in Shi (2011) and an additional set of 145 participants were included (Groups 1 and 2, respectively) in this study. All listeners rated their proficiency in listening, speaking, and reading (English and first language) on an 11-point scale and listened to a list of words from the Northwestern University Auditory Tests No. 6 (Tillman & Carhart, 1966) at 45 dB HL in quiet.

Results

English proficiency ratings by Group 2 yielded sensitivity/specificity values comparable to those of Group 1 (Shi, 2011) in predicting word recognition. A cutoff of 8 or 9 in minimum English proficiency rating across listening, speaking, and reading resulted in the best combination of prediction sensitivity/specificity. When relative proficiency was used, prediction of Group 1 performance significantly improved as compared to English proficiency. Improvement was slight for Group 2, mainly due to low specificity.

Conclusion

Self-rated English proficiency provides clinically acceptable sensitivity/specificity values as a predictor of bilinguals' English word recognition. Relative proficiency has the potential to further improve predictive power, but the size of improvement depends on the characteristics of the test population.

Adult small bowel obstruction

BACKGROUND

Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a clinical condition that is often initially diagnosed and managed in the emergency department (ED). The high rates of potential complications that are associated with an SBO make it essential for the emergency physician (EP) to make a timely and accurate diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the history, physical examination, and imaging modalities associated with the diagnosis of SBO. The secondary objectives were to identify the prevalence of SBO in prospective ED-based studies of adult abdominal pain and to apply Pauker and Kassirer's threshold approach to clinical decision-making to the diagnosis and management of SBO.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, major emergency medicine (EM) textbooks, and the bibliographies of selected articles were scanned for studies that assessed one or more components of the history, physical examination, or diagnostic imaging modalities used for the diagnosis of SBO. The selected articles underwent a quality assessment by two of the authors using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Data used to compile sensitivities and specificities were obtained from these studies and a meta-analysis was performed on those that examined the same historical component, physical examination technique, or diagnostic test. Separate information on the prevalence and management of SBO was used in conjunction with the meta-analysis findings of computed tomography (CT) to determine the test and treatment threshold.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SBO in the ED was determined to be approximately 2% of all patients who present with abdominal pain. Having a previous history of abdominal surgery, constipation, abnormal bowel sounds, and/or abdominal distention on examination were the best history and physical examination predictors of SBO. X-ray was determined to be the least useful imaging modality for the diagnosis of SBO, with a pooled positive likelihood ratio (+LR) of 1.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 2.52). On the other hand, CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were both quite accurate in diagnosing SBO with +LRs of 3.6 (5- to 10-mm slices, 95% CI = 2.3 to 5.4) and 6.77 (95% CI = 2.13 to 21.55), respectively. Although limited to only a select number of studies, the use of ultrasound (US) was determined to be superior to all other imaging modalities, with a +LR of 14.1 (95% CI = 3.57 to 55.66) and a negative likelihood ratio (-LR) of 0.13 (95% CI = 0.08 to 0.20) for formal scans and a +LR of 9.55 (95% CI = 2.16 to 42.21) and a -LR of 0.04 (95% CI = 0.01 to 0.13) for beside scans. Using the CT results of the meta-analysis for the 5- to 10-mm slice subgroup as well as information on intravenous (IV) contrast reactions and nasogastric (NG) intubation management, the pretest probability threshold for further testing was determined to be 1.5%, and the pretest probability threshold for beginning treatment was determined to be 20.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The potentially useful aspects of the history and physical examination were limited to a history of abdominal surgery, constipation, and the clinical examination findings of abnormal bowel sounds and abdominal distention. CT, MRI, and US are all adequate imaging modalities to make the diagnosis of SBO. Bedside US, which can be performed by EPs, had very good diagnostic accuracy and has the potential to play a larger role in the ED diagnosis of SBO. More ED-focused research into this area will be necessary to bring about this change.