The importance of anaemia in diagnosing colorectal cancer: a case-control study using electronic primary care records

Anaemia as a risk stratification tool for symptomatic patients referred via the two-week wait pathway for colorectal cancer

Introduction Anaemia is associated with cancer. In 2014 a new form was introduced in our department requesting a haemoglobin (Hb) result on every two-week wait referral for suspected colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of this study was to review the impact of this intervention. In particular, the significance of any evidence of anaemia (without additional indices) was investigated. Methods A review was conducted of 1,500 consecutive suspected CRC referrals recorded prospectively over a 10-month period. Data on demographics, referral Hb, referral criteria and outcomes were analysed. Anaemia was defined according to World Health Organization criteria (Hb <120g/l for women, Hb <130g/l for men). Results Overall, 1,015 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study. Over a third (38.2%) were documented as anaemic on referral. These patients were three times more likely to be diagnosed with CRC than non-anaemic patients (odds ratio [OR]: 3.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87-5.57). Using a more stringent threshold (Hb <100g/l for women and <110g/l for men), they were four times more likely to have CRC (OR: 4.27, 95% CI: 2.35-7.75). Almost a quarter (23.7%) were actually anaemic at the time of referral but not referred with anaemia. In this subgroup, there was a 2.8-fold increase in risk of CRC diagnosis compared with non-anaemic patients (adjusted OR: 2.77, 95% CI: 1.55-4.95). Conclusions Nearly a quarter of patients not referred with iron deficiency anaemia had evidence of anaemia and this was still associated with a higher rate of CRC detection. A full blood count alone might help to risk stratify symptoms such as change in bowel habit in patients on urgent pathways and identify those cases most likely to benefit from invasive investigation.

Clinical relevance of thrombocytosis in primary care: a prospective cohort study of cancer incidence using English electronic medical records and cancer registry data

BACKGROUND

Thrombocytosis (raised platelet count) is an emerging risk marker of cancer, but the association has not been fully explored in a primary care context.

AIM

To examine the incidence of cancer in a cohort of patients with thrombocytosis, to determine how clinically useful this risk marker could be in predicting an underlying malignancy.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A prospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 2000 to 2013.

METHOD

The 1-year incidence of cancer was compared between two cohorts: 40 000 patients aged ≥40 years with a platelet count of >400 × 10⁹/L (thrombocytosis) and 10 000 matched patients with a normal platelet count. Sub-analyses examined the risk with change in platelet count, sex, age, and different cancer sites.

RESULTS

A total of 1098 out of 9435 males with thrombocytosis were diagnosed with cancer (11.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 11.0 to 12.3), compared with 106 of 2599 males without thrombocytosis (4.1%; 95% CI = 3.4 to 4.9). A total of 1355 out of 21 826 females with thrombocytosis developed cancer (6.2%; 95% CI = 5.9 to 6.5), compared with 119 of 5370 females without (2.2%; 95% CI = 1.8 to 2.6). The risk of cancer increased to 18.1% (95% CI = 15.9 to 20.5) for males and 10.1% (95% CI = 9.0 to 11.3) for females, when a second raised platelet count was recorded within 6 months. Lung and colorectal cancer were more commonly diagnosed with thrombocytosis. One-third of patients with thrombocytosis and lung or colorectal cancer had no other symptoms indicative of malignancy.

CONCLUSION

Thrombocytosis is a risk marker of cancer in adults; 11.6% and 6.2% cancer incidence in males and females, respectively, is worthy of further investigation for underlying malignancy. These figures well exceed the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-mandated risk threshold of 3% risk to warrant referral for suspected cancer.

Is whole-colon investigation by colonoscopy, computerised tomography colonography or barium enema necessary for all patients with colorectal cancer symptoms, and for which patients would flexible sigmoidoscopy suffice? A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

For patients referred to hospital with suspected colorectal cancer (CRC), it is current standard clinical practice to conduct an examination of the whole colon and rectum. However, studies have shown that an examination of the distal colorectum using flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) can be a safe and clinically effective investigation for some patients. These findings require validation in a multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the links between patient symptoms at presentation and CRC risk by subsite, and to provide evidence of whether or not FS is an effective alternative to whole-colon investigation (WCI) in patients whose symptoms do not suggest proximal or obstructive disease.

DESIGN

A multicentre retrospective study using data collected prospectively from two randomised controlled trials. Additional data were collected from trial diagnostic procedure reports and hospital records. CRC diagnoses within 3 years of referral were sourced from hospital records and national cancer registries via the Health and Social Care Information Centre.

SETTING

Participants were recruited to the two randomised controlled trials from 21 NHS hospitals in England between 2004 and 2007.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women aged ≥ 55 years referred to secondary care for the investigation of symptoms suggestive of CRC.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Diagnostic yield of CRC at distal (to the splenic flexure) and proximal subsites by symptoms/clinical signs at presentation.

RESULTS

The data set for analysis comprised 7380 patients, of whom 59% were women (median age 69 years, interquartile range 62-76 years). Change in bowel habit (CIBH) was the most frequently presenting symptom (73%), followed by rectal bleeding (38%) and abdominal pain (29%); 26% of patients had anaemia. CRC was diagnosed in 551 patients (7.5%): 424 (77%) patients with distal CRC, 122 (22%) patients with cancer proximal to the descending colon and five patients with both proximal and distal CRC. Proximal cancer was diagnosed in 96 out of 2021 (4.8%) patients with anaemia and/or an abdominal mass. The yield of proximal cancer in patients without anaemia or an abdominal mass who presented with rectal bleeding with or without a CIBH or with a CIBH to looser and/or more frequent stools as a single symptom was low (0.5%). These low-risk groups for proximal cancer accounted for 41% (3032/7380) of the cohort; only three proximal cancers were diagnosed in 814 low-risk patients examined by FS (diagnostic yield 0.4%).

LIMITATIONS

A limitation to this study is that changes to practice since the trial ended, such as new referral guidelines and improvements in endoscopy quality, potentially weaken the generalisability of our findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptom profiles can be used to determine whether or not WCI is necessary. Most proximal cancers were diagnosed in patients who presented with anaemia and/or an abdominal mass. In patients without anaemia or an abdominal mass, proximal cancer diagnoses were rare in those with rectal bleeding with or without a CIBH or with a CIBH to looser and/or more frequent stools as a single symptom. FS alone should be a safe and clinically effective investigation in these patients. A cost-effectiveness analysis of symptom-based tailoring of diagnostic investigations for CRC is recommended.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95152621.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Evaluation of a prediction model for colorectal cancer: retrospective analysis of 2.5 million patient records

Earlier detection of colorectal cancer greatly improves prognosis, largely through surgical excision of neoplastic polyps. These include benign adenomas which can transform over time to malignant adenocarcinomas. This progression may be associated with changes in full blood count indices. An existing risk algorithm derived in Israel stratifies individuals according to colorectal cancer risk using full blood count data, but has not been validated in the UK. We undertook a retrospective analysis using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Patients aged over 40 with full blood count data were risk‐stratified and followed up for a diagnosis of colorectal cancer over a range of time intervals. The primary outcome was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 18–24‐month interval. We also undertook a case–control analysis (matching for age, sex, and year of risk score), and a cohort study of patients undergoing full blood count testing during 2012, to estimate predictive values. We included 2,550,119 patients. The area under the curve for the 18–24‐month interval was 0.776 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.771, 0.781]. Performance improves as the time interval reduces. The area under the curve for the age‐matched case–control analysis was 0.583 [0.574, 0.591]. For the population risk‐scored in 2012, the positive predictive value at 99.5% specificity was 8.8% with negative predictive value 99.6%. The algorithm offers an additional means of identifying risk of colorectal cancer, and could support other approaches to early detection, including screening and active case finding.

Symptoms of adult chronic and acute leukaemia before diagnosis: large primary care case-control studies using electronic records

BACKGROUND

Leukaemia is the eleventh commonest UK cancer. The four main subtypes have different clinical profiles, particularly between chronic and acute types.

AIM

To identify the symptom profiles of chronic and acute leukaemia in adults in primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Matched case-control studies using Clinical Practice Research Datalink records.

METHOD

Putative symptoms of leukaemia were identified in the year before diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used for analysis, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated to estimate risk.

RESULTS

Of cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2009, 4655 were aged ≥40 years (2877 chronic leukaemia (CL), 937 acute leukaemia (AL), 841 unreported subtype). Ten symptoms were independently associated with CL, the three strongest being: lymphadenopathy (odds ratio [OR] 22, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 13 to 36), weight loss (OR 3.0, 95% CI = 2.1 to 4.2), and bruising (OR 2.3, 95% CI = 1.6 to 3.2). Thirteen symptoms were independently associated with AL, the three strongest being: nosebleeds and/or bleeding gums (OR 5.7, 95% CI = 3.1 to 10), fever (OR 5.3, 95% CI = 2.7 to 10), and fatigue (OR 4.4, 95% CI = 3.3 to 6.0). No individual symptom or combination of symptoms had a PPV >1%.

CONCLUSION

The symptom profiles of CL and AL have both overlapping and distinct features. This presents a dichotomy for GPs: diagnosis, by performing a full blood count, is easy; however, the symptoms of leukaemia are non-specific and of relatively low risk. This explains why many leukaemia diagnoses are unexpected findings.

Comorbid conditions delay diagnosis of colorectal cancer: a cohort study using electronic primary care records

BACKGROUND

Pre-existing non-cancer conditions may complicate and delay colorectal cancer diagnosis.

METHOD

Incident cases (aged ⩾40 years, 2007-2009) with colorectal cancer were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, UK. Diagnostic interval was defined as time from first symptomatic presentation of colorectal cancer to diagnosis. Comorbid conditions were classified as 'competing demands' (unrelated to colorectal cancer) or 'alternative explanations' (sharing symptoms with colorectal cancer). The association between diagnostic interval (log-transformed) and age, gender, consultation rate and number of comorbid conditions was investigated using linear regressions, reported using geometric means.

RESULTS

Out of the 4512 patients included, 72.9% had ⩾1 competing demand and 31.3% had ⩾1 alternative explanation. In the regression model, the numbers of both types of comorbid conditions were independently associated with longer diagnostic interval: a single competing demand delayed diagnosis by 10 days, and four or more by 32 days; and a single alternative explanation by 9 days. For individual conditions, the longest delay was observed for inflammatory bowel disease (26 days; 95% CI 14-39).

CONCLUSIONS

The burden and nature of comorbidity is associated with delayed diagnosis in colorectal cancer, particularly in patients aged ⩾80 years. Effective clinical strategies are needed for shortening diagnostic interval in patients with comorbidity.

A comprehensive evaluation of the gastrointestinal tract in iron-deficiency anemia with predefined hemoglobin below 9mg/dL: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Anemia is defined as hemoglobin below the cutoff of normal in studies examining the gastrointestinal (GI) tract in iron-deficiency anemia (IDA). Although the risk of GI cancer (GIC) increases as hemoglobin decreases, guidelines do not usually recommend hemoglobin thresholds for IDA investigation.

METHODS

To elucidate whether underlying GI disorders explain the different hemoglobin values and clinical outcomes observed initially in IDA patients referred for GI workup, we prospectively investigated the diagnostic yield of a thorough GI examination in consecutive IDA adults with predefined hemoglobin <9g/dL and no extraintestinal bleeding.

RESULTS

4552 patients were enrolled over 10 years. 96% of 4038 GI lesions were consistent with occult bleeding disorders and 4% with non-bleeding disorders. Predominant bleeding disorders included upper GI ulcerative/erosive lesions (51%), GIC (15%), and angiodysplasias (12%). Diffuse angiodysplasias (45% of angiodysplasias) and GIC showed the lowest hemoglobin values (6.3 [1.5] and 6.4 [1.3]g/dL, respectively). While the spread (diffuse vs. localized) and number (<3 vs. ≥3) of angiodysplasias correlated with the degree of anemia, hemoglobin values were lower in GIC with vs. without ulcerated/friable lesions (6.0 [1.1] vs. 7.0 [1.2]g/dL, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Not only GIC but also diffuse angiodysplasias caused the most severe anemia in IDA with predefined hemoglobin values <9g/dL.

Clinical features of bowel disease in patients aged <50 years in primary care: a large case-control study

Background

Incidences of colorectal cancer (CRC) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are increasing in those aged <50 years.

Aim

To identify and quantify clinical features in primary care of CRC/IBD in those aged <50 years. This study considered the two conditions together and aimed to determine which younger patients, presenting in primary care with symptoms, would benefit from investigation for potentially serious colorectal disease.

Design and setting

Matched case-control study using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, UK.

Method

Incident cases (aged <50 years) of CRC (n = 1661) and IBD (n = 9578) diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 were each matched with up to three controls (n = 3979 CRC; n = 22 947 IBD). Odds ratios (OR) and positive predictive values (PPV) were estimated for features of CRC/IBD in the year before diagnosis.

Results

Ten features were independently associated with CRC/IBD (all P<0.001): rectal bleeding, change in bowel habit, diarrhoea, raised inflammatory markers, thrombocytosis, abdominal pain, low mean cell volume (MCV), low haemoglobin, raised white cell count, and raised hepatic enzymes. PPVs were >3% for rectal bleeding with diarrhoea, thrombocytosis, low MCV, low haemoglobin or raised inflammatory markers; for change in bowel habit with low MCV, thrombocytosis or low haemoglobin; and for diarrhoea with thrombocytosis.

Conclusion

This study quantified the risk of serious bowel disease in symptomatic patients aged <50 years in primary care. Rectal bleeding and change in bowel habit are strongly predictive of CRC/IBD when combined with abnormal haematology. The present findings help prioritise patients for colonoscopy where the diagnosis is not immediately apparent.

Haemoglobin responses to transfusion in severe iron deficiency anaemia: potential impact of gastrointestinal disorders

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Red blood cell (RBC) transfusion may be justified in iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) when an increase in oxygen delivery is needed, as sometimes occurs in subjects with haemoglobin <8·0 mg/dL, serious comorbidities or at risk of cardiovascular instability. Earlier investigations showed that some patients with severe IDA requiring transfusion had lower than expected post-transfusion haemoglobin levels with poorer clinical outcomes than other patients. After hypothesizing that haemoglobin responses to transfusion were different and that the underlying gastrointestinal (GI) disorders causing IDA could be a confounder explaining this association, these responses were analysed in a prospective cohort of IDA adults referred for outpatient GI investigation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Transfused patients with proven IDA, baseline haemoglobin at referral <9·0 g/dL and no extraintestinal bleeding were eligible. To assess a homogeneous population, only GI disorders known to cause occult bleeding were considered. Haemoglobin increments per 100 mL of RBCs were investigated.

RESULTS

In total, 2818 patients were enrolled over 10·5 years. On multivariable regression, diffuse angiodysplasias and GI cancer independently predicted for reduced increments in post-transfusion haemoglobin [adjusted regression coefficients: -0·082 (95% confidence interval, -0·093 to -0·072) and -0·073 (95% confidence interval, -0·081 to -0·066), respectively, P < 0·001 in both]. Haemoglobin responses in the remaining bleeding disorders were adequate and agreed with the principle that one RBC unit increases the haemoglobin an average of 1 g/dL.

CONCLUSION

The potential differential impact of GI disorders on changes in haemoglobin levels after RBC transfusion could be useful for transfusing physicians, especially for diagnostic purposes.

Poor predictive value of lower gastrointestinal alarm features in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer in 1981 patients in secondary care

BACKGROUND

Clinicians are advised to refer patients with lower gastrointestinal (GI) alarm features for urgent colonoscopy to exclude colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the utility of alarm features is debated.

AIM

To assess whether performance of alarm features is improved by using a symptom frequency threshold to trigger referral, or by combining them into composite variables, including minimum age thresholds, as recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).

METHODS

We collected data prospectively from 1981 consecutive adults with lower GI symptoms. Assessors were blinded to symptom status. The reference standard to define CRC was histopathological confirmation of adenocarcinoma in biopsy specimens from a malignant-looking colorectal lesion. Controls were patients without CRC. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPVs) and negative predictive values were calculated for individual alarm features, as well as combinations of these.

RESULTS

In identifying 47 (2.4%) patients with CRC, individual alarm features had sensitivities ranging from 11.1% (family history of CRC) to 66.0% (loose stools), and specificities from 30.5% (loose stools) to 75.6% (family history of CRC). Using higher symptom frequency thresholds improved specificity, but to the detriment of sensitivity. NICE referral criteria also had higher specificities and lower sensitivity, with PPVs above 4.8%. More than 80% of those with CRC met at least one of the NICE referral criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Using higher symptom frequency thresholds for alarm features improved specificity, but sensitivity was low. NICE referral criteria had PPVs above 4.8%, but sensitivities ranged from 2.2% to 32.6%, meaning many cancers would be missed.

Diagnosing colorectal cancer and inflammatory bowel disease in primary care: The usefulness of tests for faecal haemoglobin, faecal calprotectin, anaemia and iron deficiency. A prospective study

OBJECTIVE

Abdominal complaints are common reasons to consult primary care but they are seldom caused by colorectal cancer (CRC), high-risk adenomas (HRAs), or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Reliable diagnostic aids would be helpful in deciding which patients to refer for bowel imaging. Our aim was to assess the value of a faecal immunochemical test (FIT) and a faecal calprotectin (FC) test in detecting CRC, HRAs and IBD in primary care, and the value of combining these tests with anaemia and iron-deficiency tests.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective study included 373 consecutive patients that received a FIT or a FC test ordered by a primary care physician. We collected samples for FITs, FC tests, full blood counts and iron-deficiency tests. Physicians were instructed to refer patients with a positive FIT or FC test (cut-off ≥100μg/g) for bowel imaging. The patients' presenting symptoms were recorded. Patients were followed for 2 years.

RESULTS

The best test for detecting CRC and IBD was the combination of the FIT and haemoglobin concentration. This test had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 100%, 61.7%, 11.7% and 100%, respectively. The FIT detected a significantly larger proportion of CRC, HRAs and IBD than the FC test (0.92 versus 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.22-0.67).

CONCLUSION

A negative FIT combined with a normal haemoglobin concentration could rule out CRC and IBD with a high degree of safety. This could be useful in prioritising referrals for bowel imaging from primary care.

Quantifying the risk of multiple myeloma from symptoms reported in primary care patients: a large case-control study using electronic records

BACKGROUND

Patients with myeloma experience the longest diagnostic delays compared with patients with other cancers in the UK; 37% are diagnosed through emergency presentations.

AIM

To identify and quantify the risk of myeloma from specific clinical features reported by primary care patients.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Matched case-control study using General Practice Research Database primary care electronic records.

METHOD

Putative clinical features of myeloma were identified and analysed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for the consulting population.

RESULTS

A total of 2703 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with myeloma between 2000 and 2009, and 12 157 age, sex, and general practice-matched controls were identified. Sixteen features were independently associated with myeloma: hypercalcaemia, odds ratio 11.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.1 to 18), cytopenia 5.4 (95% CI = 4.6 to 6.4), raised inflammatory markers 4.9 (95% CI = 4.2 to 5.8), fracture 3.1 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.2), raised mean corpuscular volume 3.1 (95% CI = 2.4 to 4.1), weight loss 3.0 (95% CI = 2.0 to 4.5), nosebleeds 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9 to 4.7), rib pain 2.5 (95% CI = 1.5 to 4.4), back pain 2.2 (95% CI = 2.0 to 2.4), other bone pain 2.1 (95% CI = 1.4 to 3.1), raised creatinine 1.8 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.2), chest pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.4 to 1.8), joint pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.2 to 2.2), nausea 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1 to 2.1), chest infection 1.4 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.6), and shortness of breath 1.3 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.5). Individual symptom PPVs were generally <1%, although were >10% for some symptoms when combined with leucopenia or hypercalcaemia.

CONCLUSION

Individual symptoms of myeloma in primary care are generally low risk, probably explaining diagnostic delays. Once simple primary care blood tests are taken, risk estimates change. Hypercalcaemia and leucopenia are particularly important abnormalities, and coupled with symptoms, strongly suggest myeloma.

[Diagnostic approach to iron deficiency anemia]

Anemia affects a fourth of the global population, with iron deficiency remaining the primary cause. It is associated with diminished work capacity, fatigue, impaired cognitive function, and can negatively impact the course of diseases like chronic heart failure or chronic kidney disease. Treatment options include oral and intravenous iron; however, conditions such as inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, or autoimmune gastritis can diminish the efficacy of oral iron. Timely recognition of iron deficiency anemia and administration of appropriate therapy not only improves quality of life, but also reduces the need for blood transfusions. Proper selection of iron-deficient patients for whom further diagnostic testing is necessary facilitates identification of underlying diseases that require specific treatment, and avoids unnecessary invasive testing.

Evaluation of iron deficiency anaemia for gastrointestinal causes in patients without GI symptoms in high prevalent GI malignancy zones

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Gastric cancer is highly prevalent in Kashmir, as are lower gastrointestinal (LGI) malignancies. Colonic cancer, gastric cancer, and coeliac disease are the most important gastrointestinal (GI) causes of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) worldwide. Approximately 9% of patients with IDA present with a suspicious lesion in the GI tract upon examination. However, the absence of GI symptoms and a possible lesion accounting for blood loss in IDA have not been studied in this zone with a high prevalence of GI malignancy. We aimed to examine IDA patients without GI symptoms to determine the most plausible cause of their blood loss.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 100 patients with IDA and 250 control subjects without IDA and referred for gastrointestinal endoscopy were enrolled in a cross-sectional, comparative study. Patients presenting with a significant lesion proportionate to their anaemia in the upper GI tract were not examined further, if no further strong indications were present.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine patients (29%) were found to have malignancy: 13 with gastric cancer and 16 with colonic malignancies. Other apparent causes of GI blood loss included peptic ulcer disease in 10 (10%) patients, haemorrhoids in 22 (25%), polyps in eight (three in the upper GI tract and five in the LGI tract), gastric erosions in eight (8%), and angiodysplasia, diverticulitis, and trichuriasis in two (2%) each.

CONCLUSION

In light of the high incidence of GI malignancies in this patient group, a low threshold for GI screening as well as mass screening for IDA is needed.

A Risk Prediction Model for Sporadic CRC Based on Routine Lab Results

BACKGROUND

Current risk scores for colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on demographic and behavioral factors and have limited predictive values.

AIM

To develop a novel risk prediction model for sporadic CRC using clinical and laboratory data in electronic medical records.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study in a UK primary care database. Cases included those with a diagnostic code of CRC, aged 50-85. Each case was matched with four controls using incidence density sampling. CRC predictors were examined using univariate conditional logistic regression. Variables with p value <0.25 in the univariate analysis were further evaluated in multivariate models using backward elimination. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating curve. Calibration was evaluated using the McFadden's R2. Net reclassification index (NRI) associated with incorporation of laboratory results was calculated. Results were internally validated.

RESULTS

A model similar to existing CRC prediction models which included age, sex, height, obesity, ever smoking, alcohol dependence, and previous screening colonoscopy had an AUC of 0.58 (0.57-0.59) with poor goodness of fit. A laboratory-based model including hematocrit, MCV, lymphocytes, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had an AUC of 0.76 (0.76-0.77) and a McFadden's R2 of 0.21 with a NRI of 47.6 %. A combined model including sex, hemoglobin, MCV, white blood cells, platelets, NLR, and oral hypoglycemic use had an AUC of 0.80 (0.79-0.81) with a McFadden's R2 of 0.27 and a NRI of 60.7 %. Similar results were shown in an internal validation set.

CONCLUSION

A laboratory-based risk model had good predictive power for sporadic CRC risk.

The Important Role for Intravenous Iron in Perioperative Patient Blood Management in Major Abdominal Surgery: A Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine if preoperative intravenous (IV) iron improves outcomes in abdominal surgery patients.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Preoperative iron deficiency anemia (IDA) occurs frequently; however if left untreated, increases the risk of blood transfusion allogeneic blood transfusion (ABT). Limited evidence supports IDA treatment with preoperative IV iron. This randomized controlled trial aimed to determine whether perioperative IV iron reduced the need for ABT.

METHODS

Between August 2011 and November 2014, 72 patients with IDA were assigned to receive either IV iron or usual care. The primary endpoint was incidence of ABT. Secondary endpoints were various hemoglobin (Hb) levels, change in Hb between time points, length of stay, iron status, morbidity, mortality, and quality of life 4 weeks postsurgery.

RESULTS

A 60% reduction in ABT was observed in the IV iron group compared with the usual care group (31.25% vs 12.5%). Hb values, although similar at randomization, improved by 0.8 g/dL with IV iron compared with 0.1 g/dL with usual care (P = 0.01) by the day of admission. The IV iron group had higher Hb 4 weeks after discharge compared with the usual care group (1.9 vs 0.9 g/dL, P = 0.01), and a shorter length of stay (7.0 vs 9.7 d, P = 0.026). There was no difference in discharge Hb levels, morbidity, mortality, or quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Administration of perioperative IV iron reduces the need for blood transfusion, and is associated with a shorter hospital stay, enhanced restoration of iron stores, and a higher mean Hb concentration 4 weeks after surgery.

Patient-doctor continuity and diagnosis of cancer: electronic medical records study in general practice

Background

Continuity of care may affect the diagnostic process in cancer but there is little research.

Aim

To estimate associations between patient–doctor continuity and time to diagnosis and referral of three common cancers.

Design and setting

Retrospective cohort study in general practices in England.

Method

This study used data from the General Practice Research Database for patients aged ≥40 years with a diagnosis of breast, colorectal, or lung cancer. Relevant cancer symptoms or signs were identified up to 12 months before diagnosis. Patient–doctor continuity (fraction-of-care index adjusted for number of consultations) was calculated up to 24 months before diagnosis. Time ratios (TRs) were estimated using accelerated failure time regression models.

Results

Patient–doctor continuity in the 24 months before diagnosis was associated with a slightly later diagnosis of colorectal (time ratio [TR] 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.01 to 1.02) but not breast (TR = 1.00, 0.99 to 1.01) or lung cancer (TR = 1.00, 0.99 to 1.00). Secondary analyses suggested that for colorectal and lung cancer, continuity of doctor before the index consultation was associated with a later diagnosis but continuity after the index consultation was associated with an earlier diagnosis, with no such effects for breast cancer. For all three cancers, most of the delay to diagnosis occurred after referral.

Conclusion

Any effect for patient–doctor continuity appears to be small. Future studies should compare investigations, referrals, and diagnoses in patients with and without cancer who present with possible cancer symptoms or signs; and focus on ‘difficult to diagnose’ types of cancer.

Validity and completeness of colorectal cancer diagnoses in a primary care database in the United Kingdom

Purpose

To validate the recorded diagnoses of colorectal cancer (CRC) and identify false negatives in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) primary care database.

Methods

We conducted a validation study of incident CRC cases in THIN among patients aged 40–89 years from 2000–2011. CRC Read code entries (N = 3805) were verified by manual review of patients' electronic medical records (EMRs) including free‐text comments. Incident CRC cases in THIN ascertained following manual review were validated against two data sources deemed gold standards: (i) questionnaires sent to primary care practitioners (PCPs; for a random sample of 100 potential CRC cases), and (ii) Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) among linked practices. False negatives in THIN were identified by searching for International Classification of Diseases‐10 codes related to CRC in HES.

Results

Of 3805 CRC cases identified in THIN via Read codes, 3033 patients (80.0%) were considered definite cases after manual review of EMRs. The positive predictive value (PPV) of CRC Read codes was 86.0% after removing patients identified from THIN via a Read code for ‘fast track referral for suspected CRC’. The response rate from PCPs was 87.0% (n = 87), and the PPV of CRC in THIN was 100% based on PCP questionnaires. Using HES, the PPV for CRC in THIN was 97.9% (556/568), and false negative rate was 6.1% (36/592).

Conclusions

CRC diagnostic Read codes in THIN have a high PPV, which is increased further following manual review of free‐text comments. The false negative rate of CRC diagnoses in THIN is low. © 2015 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Management of Iron Deficiency Anemia

Anemia affects one-fourth of the world's population, and iron deficiency is the predominant cause. Anemia is associated with chronic fatigue, impaired cognitive function, and diminished well-being. Patients with iron deficiency anemia of unknown etiology are frequently referred to a gastroenterologist because in the majority of cases the condition has a gastrointestinal origin. Proper management improves quality of life, alleviates the symptoms of iron deficiency, and reduces the need for blood transfusions. Treatment options include oral and intravenous iron therapy; however, the efficacy of oral iron is limited in certain gastrointestinal conditions, such as inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, and autoimmune gastritis. This article provides a critical summary of the diagnosis and treatment of iron deficiency anemia. In addition, it includes a management algorithm that can help the clinician determine which patients are in need of further gastrointestinal evaluation. This facilitates the identification and treatment of the underlying condition and avoids the unnecessary use of invasive methods and their associated risks.

Symptoms, signs, and tests: The general practitioner's comprehensive approach towards a cancer diagnosis

OBJECTIVE

To study the relative importance of different tools a GP can use during the diagnostic process towards cancer detection.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study with prospective registration of cancer in general practice.

SETTING AND SUBJECTS

One hundred and fifty-seven Norwegian general practitioners (GPs) reported 261 cancer patients.

METHOD

During 10 consecutive days, GPs registered all patient consultations and recorded any presence of seven focal symptoms and three general symptoms, commonly considered as warning signs of cancer (WSC). Follow-up was done six to 11 months later. For each patient with new or recurrent cancer, the GP completed a questionnaire with medical-record-based information concerning the diagnostic procedure.

RESULTS

In 78% of cancer cases, symptoms, signs, or tests helped diagnose cancer. In 90 cases, there were 131 consultation-recorded WSC that seemed related to the cancer. Further symptoms were reported for another 74 cases. Different clinical signs were noted in 41 patients, 16 of whom had no previous recording of symptoms. Supplementary tests added information in 59 cases; in 25 of these there were no recordings of symptoms or signs. Sensitivity of any cancer-relevant symptom or clinical finding ranged from 100% for patients with uterine body cancer to 57% for patients with renal cancer.

CONCLUSION

WSC had a major role as initiator of a cancer diagnostic procedure. Low-risk-but-not-no-risk symptoms also played an important role, and in 7% of patients they were the only symptoms. Clinical findings and/or supplementary procedures were sometimes decisive for rapid referral.

Clinical risk factors for underlying gastrointestinal malignancy in iron deficiency anaemia: the IDIOM study

OBJECTIVE

Ten percent of adults presenting with iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) have underlying cancer. This analysis - the Iron Deficiency as an Indicator Of Malignancy (IDIOM) study - was undertaken to assess whether five simple clinical parameters can usefully predict the likelihood of gastrointestinal (GI) malignancy on subsequent investigation of patients with IDA.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study, with multivariable analysis of the predictive value of sex, age, haemoglobin concentration (Hb), mean red cell volume (MCV) and iron studies for the risk of underlying GI malignancy.

SETTING

District General Hospital IDA clinic.

PATIENTS

720 adults with confirmed IDA.

RESULTS

Sex, age and Hb were strongly associated with the risk of GI malignancy-the parsimonious model including only these variables yielded ORs of 4.0 (95% CI 2.3 to 7.0) for males compared with females; 3.3 (95% CI 1.7 to 6.4) for age >70 years compared with ≤70 years; and 5.3 (95% CI 2.4 to 11.7) for a Hb of ≤91.4 g/L compared with ≥111.5 g/L. Combining these risk factors identified a subgroup (12% of the study population) at particularly low risk (<2% likelihood), and a second subgroup (16% of the study population) at especially high risk (>20% likelihood) of underlying GI malignancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Three simple and objective clinical parameters can be combined to provide a clinically useful cancer risk stratification model for subjects with IDA. This may assist with patient counselling and the prioritisation of investigational resources.

Intrasaccular caecal adenocarcinoma presenting as enlarging right inguinoscrotal hernia

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer and inguinal hernias are both common surgical pathologies in the elderly but rarely co-exist. Where the conditions overlap, there can be difficulties in both diagnosis and treatment.

PRESENTATION OF CASE

A 78 year old man with unexplained iron deficiency anaemia was investigated for gastrointestinal cancer. He was found to have enlarging bilateral inguinoscrotal hernias. CT colonoscopy revealed a herniated caecal carcinoma contained within the scrotum. An open excision was performed.

DISCUSSION

Iron deficiency anaemia without obvious bleeding is associated with colorectal cancer and should be thoroughly investigated. Asymptomatic inguinal hernias are often ignored by patients. However, a change in an existing hernia may be associated with neoplasia.

CONCLUSION

Dual pathology raises new difficulties in assessment, investigation and management of colorectal cancer.

Systematic review of clinical features of suspected colorectal cancer in primary care

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the diagnostic accuracy of clinical features associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) presenting in primary care.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for studies in primary care that provided information on clinical features predictive of CRC. Positive predictive values were used to guide the determination of clinical features associated with increased risk of CRC.

STUDY SELECTION

Systematic reviews or primary studies that provided possible clinical features predictive of CRC were included.

SYNTHESIS

Clinical features of patients presenting in primary care that are associated with increased risk of CRC, listed in descending order of association, included palpable rectal or abdominal mass; rectal bleeding combined with weight loss; iron deficiency anemia; rectal bleeding mixed with stool; rectal bleeding in the absence of perianal symptoms; rectal bleeding combined with change in bowel habits; dark rectal bleeding; rectal bleeding and diarrhea; and change in bowel habits. Being male and increasing age were also, in general, associated with increased risk of CRC.

CONCLUSION

Recognition of clinical features associated with increased risk of CRC by FPs might help with earlier identification and referral among patients presenting in primary care. This review might help inform providers and CRC diagnostic assessment programs about indications for assessment and further investigation.

Risk of uterine cancer in symptomatic women in primary care: case-control study using electronic records

BACKGROUND

Uterine cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women in the UK, with approximately 7700 new diagnoses and 1700 deaths annually.

AIM

To identify and quantify features of uterine cancer in primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Case-control study using electronic primary care records in primary care in the UK.

METHOD

Putative features of uterine cancer were identified in the year before diagnosis, and odds ratios (ORs) calculated using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for women who consulted.

RESULTS

A total of 2732 women aged ≥40 years with uterine cancer between 2000 and 2009, and 9537 age-, sex- and practice-matched controls were selected from the General Practice Research Database. The median age at diagnosis was 67 years. Nine features were significantly associated with uterine cancer: postmenopausal bleeding (OR = 160; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 100 to 240), excessive vaginal bleeding (OR = 22; 95% CI = 12 to 42), irregular menstruation (OR = 42; 95% CI = 27 to -63), vaginal discharge (OR = 14; 95% CI = 10 to 21), haematuria (OR = 8.7; 95% CI = 5.0 to 15), abdominal pain (OR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4 to 2.8), low haemoglobin (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.9), raised platelets (OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.0 to 2.3), and raised glucose (OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.1 to 1.8); all P<0.01, other than raised platelets, P = 0.05 and raised glucose, P = 0.02. In the year before diagnosis, 1725 (63%) cases had a record of abnormal vaginal bleeding compared to 135 (1%) controls. The PPV of uterine cancer with postmenopausal bleeding was 4%, and was higher in women with multiple or repeated symptoms.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the importance of several features, particularly postmenopausal bleeding, for uterine cancer. Haematuria is an important risk marker. The results of this study may inform GPs in the selection of women for investigation and should assist the NICE in their update of GP referral guidance.

Risk of childhood cancer with symptoms in primary care: a population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Guidelines describing symptoms in children that should alert GPs to consider cancer have been developed, but without any supporting primary-care research.

AIM

To identify symptoms and signs in primary care that strongly increase the likelihood of childhood cancer, to assist GPs in selection of children for investigation.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A population-based case-control study in UK general practice.

METHOD

Using electronic primary care records from the UK General Practice Research Database, 1267 children aged 0-14 years diagnosed with childhood cancer were matched to 15 318 controls. Clinical features associated with subsequent diagnosis of cancer were identified using conditional logistic regression, and likelihood ratios and positive predictive values (PPVs) were estimated for each.

RESULTS

Twelve symptoms were associated with PPVs of ≥0.04%, which represents a greater than tenfold increase in prior probability. The six symptoms with the highest PPVs were pallor (odds ratio, OR = 84; PPV = 0.41% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.12% to 1.34%), head and neck masses (OR = 17; PPV = 0.30%; 95% CI = 0.10% to 0.84%), masses elsewhere (OR = 22; PPV = 0.11%; 95% CI = 0.06% to 0.20%), lymphadenopathy (OR = 10; PPV = 0.09%; 95% CI = 0.06% to 0.13%), symptoms/signs of abnormal movement (OR = 16; PPV = 0.08%; 95% CI = 0.04% to 0.14%), and bruising (OR = 12; PPV = 0·08%; 95% CI = 0.05% to 0.13%). When each of these 12 symptoms was combined singly with at least three consultations in a 3-month period, the probability of cancer was between 11 and 76 in 10 000.

CONCLUSION

Twelve features of childhood cancers were identified, each of which increased the risk of cancer at least tenfold. These symptoms, particularly when combined with multiple consultations, warrant careful evaluation in general practice.

Correlation of pretreatment hemoglobin and platelet counts with clinicopathological features in colorectal cancer in Saudi population

BACKGROUND/AIMS

In Saudi Arabia, colorectal cancers (CRCs) are registered as the second most common cancers. However, no data has been reported about correlation of the severity of the anemia and pretreatment platelets level with clinicopathological features of CRCs. We aimed to evaluate the association between pretreatment hemoglobin and platelets level and the clinicopathological features of CRC patients in Saudi Arabia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between September 2005 and November 2011, One hundred and fifty-four confirmed CRC patients underwent thorough physical examination, blood investigations, endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), and computed tomography (CT) for staging before surgery. Findings of physical assessment, EUS, CT, and pathological specimens were correlated with pretreatment hemoglobin and platelets levels the Pearson-Kendall tau correlative coefficients.

RESULTS

The mean age of cohort was 56.6 years (range: 26-89). Left-sided CRC were predominant (97 patients; 63%). Mean size of primary tumor was 6 cms (1-18) SD ± 3.55. Mean values of hemoglobin, red blood cells, hematocrit, white blood cells, and platelets were 11.9 SD ± 2.3, 35.5 SD ± 5.7, 4.43 × 10 6 /mL SD ± 0.6, 7.67 10 6 /mL SD ± 2.44, and 343 × 10 3 /mL SD ± 164.4, respectively. Pretreatment hemoglobin was inversely correlated with primary tumor size (R: 0.71, R2: 1.55, P = 0.0001) and nodal status (R: 0.02, R2: 0.05, P = 0.01). Right-sided CRC had significantly low pretreatment hemoglobin levels ( P = 0.001). Interestingly, pretreatment thrombocytosis was seen only in right-sided CRC (P = 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment anemia and thrombocytosis were found mainly in right-sided CRCs and advanced primary and nodal stages. Pretreatment hemoglobin and thrombocytosis can be considered as useful prognostic markers in CRC patients.

The role of primary care in early detection and follow-up of cancer

Primary care providers have important roles across the cancer continuum, from encouraging screening and accurate diagnosis to providing care during and after treatment for both the cancer and any comorbid conditions. Evidence shows that higher cancer screening participation rates are associated with greater involvement of primary care. Primary care providers are pivotal in reducing diagnostic delay, particularly in health systems that have long waiting times for outpatient diagnostic services. However, so-called fast-track systems designed to speed up hospital referrals are weakened by significant variation in their use by general practitioners (GPs), and affect the associated conversion and detection rates. Several randomized controlled trials have shown primary care-led follow-up care to be equivalent to hospital-led care in terms of patient wellbeing, recurrence rates and survival, and might be less costly. For primary care-led follow-up to be successful, appropriate guidelines must be incorporated, clear communication must be provided and specialist care must be accessible if required. Finally, models of long-term cancer follow-up are needed that provide holistic care and incorporate management of co-morbid conditions. We discuss all these aspects of primary care, focusing on the most common cancers managed at the GP office-breast, colorectal, prostate, lung and cervical cancers.

Pre-operative anaemia in colon cancer patients became normal after more than a year post-operatively but did not influence oncological outcome in the final analysis

BACKGROUND

Pre-operative anaemia has been related to adverse outcomes after surgical management of colorectal cancer. How various factors may contribute to anaemia and also its post-operative recovery has not been extensively investigated.

METHODS

Two hundred and thirty five colon cancer patients treated surgically in a community teaching hospital in Norway between 2007 and 2009 were prospectively examined.

RESULTS

Anaemia was detected in 53.8%, which was dependent on tumour location, albumin level and female gender. More than 60% of all patients were overweight or obese. Pre-operative BMI was negatively associated with age and positively associated with albumin level (p = 0.018 for both). Haemoglobin levels slowly returned to normal during the first year in significant incremental steps, coincidental with an increase in BMI. At 6 months post-operative, age, albumin, female gender and TNM stage (p = 0.010; p = 0.020; p < 0.001; p = 0.028, respectively) were significantly connected with anaemia, whereas only age and albumin (p = 0.016; p = 0.004, respectively) were associated with a reduced BMI. Pre-operative anaemia gave a significantly worse overall survival (p = 0.040) in the univariate analysis but was not significant in the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Beside the influence of tumour location, it appeared that pre-operative Hgb had some relation to a reduced nutritional state. The post-operative recovery of anaemia was more closely related to an improved nutritional state. The relation between anaemia and oncological outcome should undergo further studies.

Clinical features of bladder cancer in primary care

BACKGROUND

Bladder cancer accounts for over 150,000 deaths worldwide. No screening is available, so diagnosis depends on investigations of symptoms. Of these, only visible haematuria has been studied in primary care.

AIM

To identify and quantify the features of bladder cancer in primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Case-control study, using electronic medical records from UK primary care.

METHOD

Participants were 4915 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with bladder cancer January 2000 to December 2009, and 21,718 age, sex, and practice-matched controls, were selected from the General Practice Research Database, UK. All clinical features independently associated with bladder cancer using conditional logistic regression were identified, and their positive predictive values for bladder cancer, singly and in combination, were estimated.

RESULTS

Cases consulted their GP more frequently than controls before diagnosis: median 15 consultations (interquartile range 9-22) versus 8 (4-15): P<0.001. Seven features were independently associated with bladder cancer: visible haematuria, odds ratio 34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 29 to 41), dysuria 4.1 (95% CI = 3.4 to 5.0), urinary tract infection 2.2 (95% CI = 2.0 to 2.5), raised white blood cell count 2.1 (95% CI = 1.6 to 2.8), abdominal pain 2.0 (95% CI = 1.6 to 2.4), constipation 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.9), raised inflammatory markers 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.9), and raised creatinine 1.3 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.4). The positive predictive value for visible haematuria in patients aged ≥60 years was PPV of 2.6% (95% CI = 2.2 to 3.2).

CONCLUSION

Visible haematuria is the commonest and most powerful predictor of bladder cancer in primary care, and warrants investigation. Most other previously reported features of bladder cancer were associated with the disease, but with low predictive values. There is a need for improved diagnostic methods, for those patients whose bladder cancer presents without visible haematuria.

Identifying patients with undetected colorectal cancer: an independent validation of QCancer (Colorectal)

Background:

Early identification of colorectal cancer is an unresolved challenge and the predictive value of single symptoms is limited. We evaluated the performance of QCancer (Colorectal) prediction model for predicting the absolute risk of colorectal cancer in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records.

Methods:

A total of 2.1 million patients registered with a general practice surgery between 01 January 2000 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-84 years (3.7 million person-years) with 3712 colorectal cancer cases were included in the analysis. Colorectal cancer was defined as incident diagnosis of colorectal cancer during the 2 years after study entry.

Results:

The results from this independent and external validation of QCancer (Colorectal) prediction model demonstrated good performance data on a large cohort of general practice patients. QCancer (Colorectal) had very good discrimination with an area under the ROC curve of 0.92 (women) and 0.91 (men), and explained 68% (women) and 66% (men) of the variation. QCancer (Colorectal) was well calibrated across all tenths of risk and over all age ranges with predicted risks closely matching observed risks.

Conclusion:

QCancer (Colorectal) appears to be a useful tool for identifying undetected cases of undiagnosed colorectal cancer in primary care in the United Kingdom.

Exfoliated colonocyte DNA levels and clinical features in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer: a cohort study in patients referred for investigation

AIM

Selection of patients for investigation of suspected colorectal cancer is difficult. One possible improvement may be to measure DNA isolated from exfoliated cells collected from the rectum.

METHOD

This was a cohort study in a surgical clinic. Participants were aged ≥40 years and referred for investigation of suspected colorectal cancer. Exclusion criteria were inflammatory bowel disease, previous gastrointestinal malignancy, or recent investigation. A sample of the mucocellular layer of the rectum was taken with an adapted proctoscope (the Colonix system). Haemoglobin, mean cell volume, ferritin, carcino-embryonic antigen and faecal occult bloods were tested. Analysis was by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Participation was offered to 828 patients, of whom 717 completed the investigations. Three were lost to follow up. Seventy-two (10%) had colorectal cancer. Exfoliated cell DNA was higher (P<0.001) in cancer (median 5.4 μg/ml [inter-quartile range 1.8,12]) compared with those without cancer (2.0 μg/ml [IQR 0.78,5.5]). Seven variables were independently associated with cancer, including age (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02,1.08; P<0.001) DNA (OR, 1.05; CI, 1.01,3.6; P=0.01), mean cell volume (OR, 0.93; CI, 0.89,0.97; P=0.001), carcino-embryonic antigen 1.02 per μg/l (CI, 1.00,1.04; P=0.02), male sex (OR, 2.0; CI, 1.1,3.6; P=0.02), rectal bleeding (OR, 2.4; CI, 1.3,4.5; P=0.007) and positive faecal occult blood (OR, 6.7; CI, 3.4, 13; P<0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the DNA score was 0.65 (0.58-0.72) and for the seven variable model 0.88 (CI, 0.84-0.92).

CONCLUSION

Quantification of exfoliated DNA from rectal cellular material has promise in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer, but this requires confirmation in a larger study.

Features of childhood cancer in primary care: a population-based nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the risk of cancer in children with alert symptoms identified in current UK guidance, or with increased consultation frequency in primary care.

METHODS

A population-based, nested case-control study used data from the General Practice Research Database. In all, 1267 children age 0-14 years diagnosed with childhood cancer were matched to 15,318 controls. Likelihood ratios and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated to assess risk.

RESULTS

Alert symptoms recorded in the 12 and 3 months before diagnosis were present in 33.7% and 27.0% of cases vs 5.4% and 1.4% of controls, respectively. The PPV of having cancer for any alert symptom in the 3 months before diagnosis was 0.55 per 1000 children. Cases consulted more frequently particularly in the 3 months before diagnosis (86% cases vs 41% controls). Of these, 36% of cases and 9% of controls had consulted 4 times or more. The PPV for cancer in a child consulting 4 times or more in 3 months was 0.13 per 1000 children.

CONCLUSION

Alert symptoms and frequent consultations are associated with childhood cancer. However, individual symptoms and consultation patterns have very low PPVs for cancer in primary care (e.g., of 10,000 children with a recorded alert symptom, approximately 6 would be diagnosed with cancer within 3 months).

Prognostic value of tumour necrosis and host inflammatory responses in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Tumour necrosis is a marker of poor prognosis in some tumours but the mechanism is unclear. This study examined the prognostic value of tumour necrosis and host inflammatory responses in colorectal cancer.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients undergoing potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer at a single surgical institution over a 10-year period. Patients who underwent preoperative radiotherapy were excluded. The systemic and local inflammatory responses were assessed using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score and Klintrup-Makinen criteria respectively. Original tumour sections were retrieved and necrosis graded as absent, focal, moderate or extensive. Associations between necrosis and clinicopathological variables were examined, and multivariable survival analyses carried out.

RESULTS

A total of 343 patients were included between 1997 and 2007. Tumour necrosis was graded as absent in 32 (9·3 per cent), focal in 166 (48·4 per cent), moderate in 101 (29·4 per cent) and extensive in 44 (12·8 per cent). There were significant associations between tumour necrosis and anaemia (P = 0·022), white cell count (P = 0·006), systemic inflammatory response (P < 0·001), local inflammatory cell infiltrate (P = 0·004), tumour node metastasis (TNM) stage (P = 0·015) and Petersen Index (P = 0·003). On univariable survival analysis, tumour necrosis was associated with cancer-specific survival (P < 0·001). On multivariable survival analysis, age (hazard ratio (HR) 1·29, 95 per cent confidence interval 1·00 to 1·66), systemic inflammatory response (HR 1·74, 1·27 to 2·39), low-grade local inflammatory cell infiltrate (HR 2·65, 1·52 to 4·63), TNM stage (HR 1·55, 1·02 to 2·35) and high-risk Petersen Index (HR 3·50, 2·21 to 5·55) were associated with reduced cancer-specific survival.

CONCLUSION

The impact of tumour necrosis on colorectal cancer survival may be due to close associations with the host systemic and local inflammatory responses.

Assessing the comparative effectiveness of newly marketed medications: methodological challenges and implications for drug development

Comparative-effectiveness research (CER) aims to produce actionable evidence regarding the effectiveness and safety of medical products and interventions as they are used outside of controlled research settings. Although CER evidence regarding medications is particularly needed shortly after market approval, key methodological challenges include (i) potential bias due to channeling of patients to the newly marketed medication because of various patient-, physician-, and system-related factors; (ii) rapid changes in the characteristics of the user population during the early phase of marketing; and (iii) lack of timely data and the often small number of users in the first few months of marketing. We propose a mix of approaches to generate comparative-effectiveness data in the early marketing period, including sequential cohort monitoring with secondary health-care data and propensity score (PS) balancing, as well as extended follow-up of phase III and phase IV trials, indirect comparisons of placebo-controlled trials, and modeling and simulation of virtual trials.

The effect of seeking consent on the representativeness of patient cohorts: iron-deficiency anaemia and colorectal cancer

AIM

The study aimed to establish the level of selection bias that may occur should individual patient consent be sought, by comparing characteristics of consenters and nonconsenters to a request for access to medical records within a cohort of patients diagnosed with iron-deficiency anaemia (IDA).

METHOD

A cohort study and cross-sectional survey was carried out of consent preferences that compared the sociodemographic characteristics of patients providing or not providing consent for access to their records, the consent rates by participant subgroup and the predictors of consent/nonconsent.

RESULTS

Of 599 patients mailed requesting consent for access to their medical records, 425 (71.0%) responses were received. Of the valid responses, explicit consent was granted by 371 (62.7%) respondents, with 47 (7.9%) refusals. The characteristics of consenters and nonconsenters differed with regard to age, gender and deprivation quartile. Nonconsent was associated with younger age (40-60 years vs 60 + years; bivariate OR = 2.84; 95% CI = 2.01-4.02), female gender (OR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.13-2.34) and being socioeconomically deprived (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.15-2.26).

CONCLUSION

The current research governance framework demonstrates a conflict between protecting the rights of the individual and the development of a sound research base to improve the delivery of healthcare services for society as a whole. If epidemiological research includes data only from individuals who have given consent for access to their records, the resulting selection bias may have consequences for the scientific validity and generalizability of research findings, and ultimately the quality of patient care.

The diagnostic value of symptoms for colorectal cancer in primary care: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Over 37,000 new colorectal cancers are diagnosed in the UK each year. Most present symptomatically to primary care.

AIM

To conduct a systematic review of the diagnostic value of symptoms associated with colorectal cancer.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHOD

MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL were searched to February 2010, for diagnostic studies of symptomatic adult patients in primary care. Studies of asymptomatic patients, screening, referred populations, or patients with colorectal cancer recurrences, or with fewer than 100 participants were excluded. The target condition was colorectal cancer. Data were extracted to estimate the diagnostic performance of each symptom or pair of symptoms. Data were pooled in a meta-analysis. The quality of studies was assessed with the QUADAS tool.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies were included. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for rectal bleeding from 13 papers ranged from 2.2% to 16%, with a pooled estimate of 8.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.0% to 11%) in those aged ≥ 50 years. Pooled PPV estimates for other symptoms were: abdominal pain (three studies) 3.3% (95% CI = 0.7% to 16%); and anaemia (four studies) 9.7% (95% CI = 3.5% to 27%). For rectal bleeding accompanied by weight loss or change in bowel habit, pooled positive likelihood ratios (PLRs) were 1.9 (95% CI = 1.3 to 2.8) and 1.8 (95% CI = 1.3 to 2.5) respectively, suggesting higher risk when both symptoms were present. Conversely, the PLR was one or less for abdominal pain, diarrhoea, or constipation accompanying rectal bleeding.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that investigation of rectal bleeding or anaemia in primary care patients is warranted, irrespective of whether other symptoms are present. The risks from other single symptoms are lower, though multiple symptoms also warrant investigation.

Iron-deficiency anemia: a predictor of diminished disease-free survival of T3N0M0 stage colon cancer

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to determine whether iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) predicts long-term oncologic outcomes in patients with TNM stage II colon cancer.

METHODS

Clinical and follow-up data were extracted from a prospective colon cancer database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify IDA and other predictors of long-term oncologic outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 644 patients, 147 (22.8%) patients presented with IDA. The data were stratified by T3N0M0 and T4N0M0. The distribution difference of IDA between the two subsets was not significant (P = 0.340). But in the T4N0M0 subset, the incidence of IDA increased with the depth of tumor penetration (75.9% and 18.2% for the patients with and without adjacent organ involvement, respectively, P = 0.011). IDA predicted a worse disease-free survival among patients with T3N0M0 cancer (472 patients; log-rank test, P = 0.016; Cox regression, P = 0.009), but it was not a predictor in T4N0M0 cancer patients (172 patients; log-rank test, P = 0.016; Cox regression, P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

IDA was an independent predictor of long-term outcome in T3N0M0 stage, but not in T4N0M0 colon cancer. T3N0M0 stage colon cancer patients with IDA could be included in future trials of adjuvant therapies.

Iron deficiency anaemia and delayed diagnosis of colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

AIM

The extent to which different referral pathways following a primary care diagnosis of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) are associated with delay in diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) was determined.

METHOD

Eligible patients aged 40 or more years, with IDA diagnosed in primary care, and a subsequent diagnosis of CRC, were studied retrospectively. Referral pathways were identified using the specialty of first recorded GP referral following IDA diagnosis. Differences in time to diagnosis of CRC were assessed by referral specialty. Differences in the proportion of cases referred before and after the re-issue of the NICE urgent referral guidelines for suspected lower gastrointestinal (GI) cancer were also assessed.

RESULTS

Of 628,882 eligible patients, 3.1% (n = 19,349) were diagnosed with IDA during the study period; 3.0% (n = 578) were subsequently diagnosed with CRC. Two hundred and fifty-nine (44.8%) patients had no recorded referral or a referral unrelated to anaemia or the GI tract. Only 35% (n = 201) of patients were referred to a relevant specialty. Median time to CRC diagnosis ranged from 2.5 months (referral to a relevant surgical specialty) to 31.9 months (haematology). Time to diagnosis was longer in patients referred to a medical compared with a relevant surgical specialty (P = 0.024). There was no significant difference in time to CRC diagnosis before and after the NICE guidelines were re-issued in 2005.

CONCLUSION

Significant differences exist between referral specialties in time to CRC diagnosis following a primary care diagnosis of IDA. Despite NICE referral recommendations, a significant proportion of patients are still not managed within recommended care pathways to CRC diagnosis.

Positive predictive values of ≥5% in primary care for cancer: systematic review

BACKGROUND

The positive predictive value (PPV) for cancer of symptoms, signs, and non-diagnostic test results of patients routinely consulting a GP (unselected primary care populations) can help to determine when malignancy should be excluded. Comparisons with other illness indicate that a value of 5% or more may be regarded as highly predictive.

AIM

To identify symptoms, signs, and non-diagnostic test results in unselected primary care populations that are highly predictive of cancer.

DESIGN OF STUDY

Systematic review.

SETTING

Primary care.

METHOD

Fourteen bibliographic databases were searched, using terms for primary care, cancer, and predictive values. Reference lists of relevant papers were hand-searched. Data were extracted and the quality of each paper was assessed using predefined criteria, and checked by a second reviewer.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies were identified. PPVs of 5% or more in specific age and sex groups were reported for: rectal bleeding, change in bowel habit, and iron deficiency anaemia and colorectal cancer; haematuria and urological cancer; malignant rectal examination and prostate cancer; haemoptysis and lung cancer; dysphagia and oesophageal cancer; breast lump and breast cancer; and postmenopausal bleeding and gynaecological cancer.

CONCLUSION

Robust evidence was found for eight symptoms, signs, and non-diagnostic test results as strongly indicative of cancer for specific age and sex groups in unselected primary care populations. These have the potential to improve the early diagnosis of some cancers in primary care by the use of computer warning flags, improved guidelines, audit, and appraisal.

Variations in hemoglobin before colorectal cancer diagnosis

We have conducted the present case-control study to examine whether long-term variations in blood hemoglobin (Hb) levels within the normal range could detect subtle gastrointestinal bleeding in the early development of colorectal cancer (CRC). A total of 1074 CRC cases aged 45-75 years that have been diagnosed with CRC and had normal Hb levels were frequency matched for age and sex with cancer-free individuals at a ratio of 10 controls per case. Our retrospective analysis indicates that starting from 4 years prior to cancer diagnosis, a progressive significant (P<0.001) decrement in Hb levels (0.28 g/dl per 6 months) was found among cases but not among controls. CRC patients were characterized in an on-going, long-term, logarithmic decrement in Hb levels. Such small changes within the normal Hb range could be missed by health providers, but automatically detected by computerized alert algorithms..

Cancer diagnosis in primary care

Around a quarter of those in the developed world die of cancer. Most cancers present to primary care with symptoms, even when there is a screening test for the particular cancer. However, the symptoms of cancer are also symptoms of benign disease, and the GP has to judge whether cancer is a possible explanation. Very little research examined this process until relatively recently. This review paper examines the process of primary care diagnosis, especially the selection of patients for rapid investigation. It concentrates on the four commonest UK cancers: breast, lung, colon, and prostate as these have been the subject of most recent studies.

Anaemia investigation in practice: inappropriate, cost inefficient with a risk of missing gastrointestinal cancer. Can we improve?

Iron-deficiency anaemia (IDA) is often inappropriately investigated. This study aimed to improve referrals, estimate cost implications and determine effectiveness of referral criteria for diagnosing cancer. Patients referred for investigation of anaemia were studied. IDA was defined as haemoglobin < 12.5 g/dl (M) and < 11.5 g/dl (F), with ferritin <15 ng/l (if normal erythrocyte sedimentation rate) or mean corpuscular volume <76 fl. After referral form redesign/trust education, data were recollected. Sixty-six of 118 referred patients had non-IDA with annual cost of inappropriate referrals pounds 176,840. The haematology database identified 37 patients (30 F) with uninvestigated IDA (lost revenue pounds 120,254). After changes, 43/103 referred patients had non-IDA (p < 0.05), with an annual saving of pounds 72,600. Fourteen of 112 patients with IDA had cancer versus 4/109 non-IDA (p < 0.025), overall prevalence 8.1%. Many referrals for anaemia investigation are inappropriate and a 35% reduction was achieved. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of the referral criteria for diagnosing gastrointestinal cancer were 77.8% and 96.3% respectively.

The CAPER studies: five case-control studies aimed at identifying and quantifying the risk of cancer in symptomatic primary care patients

Background:

This paper reviews the background to five primary care case-control studies, collectively known as the CAPER studies (Cancer Prediction in Exeter). These studies, on colorectal, lung, prostate and brain tumours, sought to identify the particular features of cancer as reported to primary care. They also sought to quantify the risk of cancer for symptoms and primary care investigations, both individually and paired together.

Methods:

Two studies were on colorectal cancer: the former with 349 cases used hand searching and coding of entries, while the latter obtained 6442 cases from a national electronic database. The lung and prostate studies had 247 and 217 cases, respectively, and used manual methods. The brain study also used a national electronic database, which provided 3505 cases.

Results:

Generally, the symptoms matched previous series from secondary care, though the risks of cancer, expressed as positive predictive values, were lower. Rectal bleeding in colorectal cancer, and haemoptysis in lung cancer both had positive predictive values of 2.4%. The risk of a brain tumour with headache was one in a thousand.

Interpretation:

The results identify areas where current guidance on urgent referral for investigation of suspected cancer could be improved.

Five misconceptions in cancer diagnosis

Much investment has been put into facilities for early cancer diagnosis. It is difficult to know how successful this investment has been. New facilities for rapid investigation in the UK have not reduced mortality, and may cause delays in diagnosis of patients with low-risk, or atypical, symptoms. In part, the failure of new facilities to translate into mortality benefits can be explained by five misconceptions. These are described, along with suggested research and organisational remedies. The first misconception is that cancer is diagnosed in hospitals. Consequently, secondary care data have been used to drive primary care decisions. Second, GPs are thought to be poor at cancer diagnosis, yet the type of education on offer to improve this may not be what is needed. Third, symptomatic cancer diagnosis has been downgraded in importance with the introduction of screening, yet screening identifies only a small minority of cancers. Fourth, pressure is put on GPs to make referrals for those with an individual high risk of cancer - disenfranchising those with 'low-risk but not no-risk' symptoms. Finally, considerable nihilism exists about the value of early diagnosis, despite considerable observational evidence that earlier diagnosis of symptomatic cancer is beneficial.

Determining the date of diagnosis--is it a simple matter? The impact of different approaches to dating diagnosis on estimates of delayed care for ovarian cancer in UK primary care

Background

Studies of cancer incidence and early management will increasingly draw on routine electronic patient records. However, data may be incomplete or inaccurate. We developed a generalisable strategy for investigating presenting symptoms and delays in diagnosis using ovarian cancer as an example.

Methods

The General Practice Research Database was used to investigate the time between first report of symptom and diagnosis of 344 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 01/06/2002 and 31/05/2008. Effects of possible inaccuracies in dating of diagnosis on the frequencies and timing of the most commonly reported symptoms were investigated using four increasingly inclusive definitions of first diagnosis/suspicion: 1. "Definite diagnosis" 2. "Ambiguous diagnosis" 3. "First treatment or complication suggesting pre-existing diagnosis", 4 "First relevant test or referral".

Results

The most commonly coded symptoms before a definite diagnosis of ovarian cancer, were abdominal pain (41%), urogenital problems(25%), abdominal distension (24%), constipation/change in bowel habits (23%) with 70% of cases reporting at least one of these. The median time between first reporting each of these symptoms and diagnosis was 13, 21, 9.5 and 8.5 weeks respectively. 19% had a code for definitions 2 or 3 prior to definite diagnosis and 73% a code for 4. However, the proportion with symptoms and the delays were similar for all four definitions except 4, where the median delay was 8, 8, 3, 10 and 0 weeks respectively.

Conclusion

Symptoms recorded in the General Practice Research Database are similar to those reported in the literature, although their frequency is lower than in studies based on self-report. Generalisable strategies for exploring the impact of recording practice on date of diagnosis in electronic patient records are recommended, and studies which date diagnoses in GP records need to present sensitivity analyses based on investigation, referral and diagnosis data. Free text information may be essential in obtaining accurate estimates of incidence, and for accurate dating of diagnoses.