Prognostic model for predicting survival of patients with metastatic urothelial cancer treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy

Tailored Selection of First-Line Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma of Bladder

Purpose: Methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin plus cisplatin (MVAC) and gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GC) are both effective first-line chemotherapy. We explore the responsive variables of MVAC and GC for patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma of bladder (mUCB).

Materials and Methods: Patients who were initially diagnosed to have mUCB and received MVAC or GC as metastatic first-line chemotherapy between 2000 and 2014 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were reviewed. Totally, 130 patients were enrolled into our study. Univariable Cox proportional hazard models were constructed for OS. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was also presented.

Results: There were 50 patients (38%) in the MVAC group and 80 patients (62%) in the GC group. The median OS was insignificantly different between MVAC and GC groups, accounting for 17.0 and 14.4 months (P = 0.214), respectively. OS of MVAC group was significantly longer with regard to age ≦ 60 years (HR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.12-0.97, P = 0.036), pure urothelial carcinoma (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.34-0.90, P = 0.015), > 1 metastatic sites (HR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.08-0.44, P = < 0.001), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio > 3(HR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.25-0.81, P = 0.006), while OS with GC group was significantly longer with regard to variant urothelial carcinoma (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.34-0.90, P = 0.015).

Conclusions: Our study disclosed the predictive factors of different regimen for mUCB. These results have clinical implication for physicians who treat patients with mUCB.

Association of tumour microRNA profiling with outcomes in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma receiving first-line platinum-based chemotherapy

Background:

Tumour expression of selected microRNAs (miRs) correlates with cisplatin efficacy in multiple cancers. We investigated the role of selected miRs in patients receiving cisplatin-based therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC).

Methods:

RNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour from 83 advanced UC patients who received cisplatin. A miR panel based on relevance for platinum sensitivity and UC was studied by quantitative reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT–qPCR). Association of progression-free survival (PFS) with miR expression was analysed using cox regression. Selected TFs were chosen by association with the panel of miRs using the Transcription Regulation algorithm (GeneGo MetaCore+MetaDrug version 6.23 build 67496). Bladder cancer (BC) cell lines were used to investigate the previously described role of miR-21 mediating cisplatin sensitivity.

Results:

The 83 patients had a median PFS of 8 months. In multivariate analysis, higher levels of E2F1 (P=0.01, HR: 1.95 (1.14, 3.33)), miR-21 (P=0.01, HR: 2.01 (1.17, 3.45)) and miR-372 (P=0.05, HR: 1.70 (1.00, 2.89)) were associated with a shorter PFS. In the 8 BC cell lines, miR-21 was not shown to be necessary nor sufficient for modulating cisplatin sensitivity.

Conclusions:

In metastatic UC patients treated with cisplatin-based therapy, high primary tumour levels of E2F1, miR-21 and miR-372 are associated with poor PFS independent of clinical prognostic factors. The in vitro study could not confirm miR-21 levels role in modulating platinum sensitivity.

Prognostic model to predict survival in patients with metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy

OBJECTIVES

To create a novel prognostic model to predict survival in metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy.

METHODS

After institutional review board approval, patients who had metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma and were treated with cisplatin based chemotherapy from 2000 to 2012 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regress analyses. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. Several prognostic models were validated by using our cohort, and Harrell's c-index was calculated to evaluate their predicting performances.

RESULTS

The present study consisted of 136 patients with a median age of 62 years and a median follow-up visit of 13.6 months. Multivariate analyses showed that renal function, performance status, liver metastasis and number of metastatic sites was independently related to survival. Based on these four variables, we constructed a prognostic model "renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites" with significantly different survival (P < 0.001). C-index results were renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites model 0.80 (0.69-0.90), Bajorin model 0.72 (0.61-0.83), Taguchi model 0.77 (0.67-0.87) and Tanaka model 0.78 (0.69-0.88). Our renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites prognostic model achieved the highest c-index in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

Our renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites prognostic model could be useful for providing prognostic information on survival in patients with metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

Chemotherapy for Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: Better Late Than Never?

The Oncology Grand Rounds series is designed to place original reports published in the Journal into clinical context. A case presentation is followed by a description of diagnostic and management challenges, a review of the relevant literature, and a summary of the authors' suggested management approaches. The goal of this series is to help readers better understand how to apply the results of key studies, including those published in Journal of Clinical Oncology, to patients seen in their own clinical practice.A 64-year-old man with a history of cigarette smoking but no significant comorbidities presented with hematuria and dysuria. Computed tomography scans demonstrated a mass and thickening of the bladder wall and no evidence of metastasis. His laboratory evaluation showed normal blood cell counts and comprehensive metabolic panel with a calculated creatinine clearance of more than 60 mL per minute. A transurethral resection of the bladder tumor and biopsy identified transitional cell carcinoma or urothelial carcinoma invading the muscularis propria of the bladder. On the basis of the bladder-confined mass on computed tomography scan, the tumor was assigned a clinical stage of cT2N0. The patient was advised to undergo neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by radical cystectomy (RC). The patient had multiple concerns regarding neoadjuvant chemotherapy, particularly toxicities, especially the possibility of chronic neurologic and renal toxicities, and the potential harm from delay of RC, especially if the bladder cancer was resistant to chemotherapy. After a discussion of approximately 1 hour, he elected to proceed with upfront RC and extended lymph node dissection in conjunction with construction of a neobladder. Pathology revealed pathologic extravesical urothelial carcinoma, with disease in one of 25 lymph nodes removed (ypT3N1). Four weeks after RC, he returned to discuss further management with the medical oncologist. He exhibited an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0, normal blood cell counts, and a calculated creatinine clearance of more than 60 mL per minute.

Cisplatin- Versus Non-Cisplatin-based First-Line Chemotherapy for Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma Previously Treated With Perioperative Cisplatin

INTRODUCTION

The optimal choice of first-line chemotherapy for patients with relapse of urothelial carcinoma (UC) after perioperative cisplatin-based chemotherapy (PCBC) is unclear. We investigated the outcomes with cisplatin rechallenge versus a non-cisplatin regimen in patients with recurrent metastatic UC after PCBC in a multicenter retrospective study.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Individual patient-level data were collected for patients who had received various first-line chemotherapy regimens for advanced UC after previous PCBC. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the prognostic ability of the type of perioperative and first-line chemotherapy to independently affect overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) after accounting for known prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Data were available for 145 patients (12 centers). The mean age was 62 years; the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) was > 0 for 42.0% of the patients. Of the 145 patients, 63% had received cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy. The median time from previous chemotherapy (TFPC) was 6.2 months (range, 1-154 months). The median OS was 22 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 18-27 months), and the median PFS was 6 months (95% CI, 5-7 months). A better ECOG PS and a longer TFPC (> 12 months vs. ≤ 12 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.52; P < .001) was prognostic for OS and PFS. Cisplatin-based chemotherapy was associated with poor OS (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.13-3.06; P = .015), which appeared to be pronounced in those patients with a TFPC of ≤ 12 months. Retreatment with cisplatin in the first-line setting was associated with worse OS (HR, 3.38; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The results of the present retrospective analysis suggest that for patients who have undergone previous PCBC for UC, rechallenging with cisplatin might confer a poorer OS, especially for those with progression within < 1 year.

Improved 5-Factor Prognostic Classification of Patients Receiving Salvage Systemic Therapy for Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Prognostic factors in patients receiving salvage systemic therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma include performance status, liver metastasis, hemoglobin and time since chemotherapy. We investigated the impact of albumin, and neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient level data from 10 phase II trials were used. Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to evaluate associations with overall survival. An optimal regression model was constructed using forward stepwise selection and risk groups were defined using the number of adverse factors. Trial was a stratification factor. External validation was done in a separate data set of 5 salvage phase II trials.

RESULTS

Discovery data were obtained on 708 patients. After adjustment for the 4 known factors a platelet count of the upper limit of normal or greater and albumin less than the lower limit of normal were significant poor prognostic factors. Only the addition of albumin was externally validated. For 0 or 1, 2 and 3 or greater risk factors median overall survival was 8.9, 6.4 and 4.5 months in 207, 171 and 113 patients in the discovery data set of 491, and 10.6, 10.0 and 7.0 months in 73, 47 and 47 patients, respectively, in the validation data set of 167. By adding albumin the c-index improved from 0.610 to 0.639 in the discovery set and from 0.616 to 0.646 in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin was externally validated as a prognostic factor for overall survival after accounting for time from prior chemotherapy, hemoglobin, performance status and liver metastasis status in patients receiving salvage systemic therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma. The discovery of molecular prognostic factors is a priority to further enhance this new preferred 5-factor clinical prognostic model.

Validation of major prognostic models for metastatic urothelial carcinoma using a multi-institutional cohort of the real world

BACKGROUND

Several prognostic models predicting survival of patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) have been developed; however, of them, the first model by Bajorin in 1999 is still the most representative and widely used, and validations of newer models are lacking. This study aimed to validate three major prognostic models for metastatic UC constructed based on clinical trials.

METHODS

We reviewed 200 patients with metastatic UC who received first-line chemotherapy at our five affiliate institutions between 2003 and 2011. Using this multi-institutional cohort, we validated the following models: the "Bajorin model," a model consisting of visceral metastasis and performance status; the "Apolo model," a nomogram including visceral metastasis, performance status, albumin and hemoglobin; and the "Galsky model," a nomogram including leukocyte count, number of sites of visceral metastases, site of primary tumor, performance status and lymph node metastasis. Harrell's c-index was calculated for each model. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Among 200 patients, 171 (85.5%) died during the follow-up, with a median survival of 12.0 months. Multivariate analysis demonstrated ECOG performance status, visceral metastasis and leukocyte count to be independent predictors of overall survival. C-index results (95% confidence interval) were Bajorin: 0.86 (0.74-0.95); Apolo: 0.89 (0.78-0.98); and Galsky: 0.82 (0.69-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

All models were demonstrated to have high external validities in real-world patients, and of them, the "Apolo model" achieved the highest c-index in the present population. Further studies with larger populations are needed for establishment of the next standard model.

Salvage systemic therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma: on the cusp of a sea change?

This commentary addresses salvage therapy of advanced urothelial carcinoma and the importance of prognostic classification. Patients should be referred to one of the important clinical trials of salvage therapy rather than treatment with marginally active chemotherapeutic agents.

Pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as an independent predictor of survival in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma: A multi-institutional study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the prognostic significance of the pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma who underwent salvage chemotherapy.

METHODS

We reviewed 200 metastatic urothelial carcinoma patients who received salvage chemotherapy at our five affiliate institutions between 2003 and 2011. The associations of pretreatment clinicopathological factors, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, with cancer-specific survival and overall survival from the start of chemotherapy were assessed. Cox proportional hazards model was used for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 15 cases with missing data were excluded. Among the remaining 185 patients, 157 died during follow up, with a median survival of 13.0 months. Multivariate analysis showed that the pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥3, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2 and liver metastasis were independent poor prognostic factors, both for cancer-specific survival and overall survival. A prognostic model predicting overall survival was constructed based on the number of these three variables (0, 1 and ≥ 2). The classified patients showed significantly different overall survival (each P < 0.0001, log-rank test), with Harrell's concordance index as high as 0.81.

CONCLUSIONS

Pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio elevation was an independent poor prognostic factor for metastatic urothelial carcinoma undergoing salvage chemotherapy. Our newly constructed prognostic model including the pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio proved to be an excellent discriminator of overall survival.

The safety and efficacy of single-agent pemetrexed in platinum-resistant advanced urothelial carcinoma: a large single-institution experience

BACKGROUND

Pemetrexed is a commonly used treatment for platinum-resistant advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC) based on objective response rates of 8% and 28% in two small phase II studies. To address the discrepancy in reported response rates and to assess efficacy and toxicity outside of a clinical trial setting, we performed a large retrospective analysis of pemetrexed use at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. We also investigated candidate prognostic factors for overall survival in this setting to explore whether the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had independent prognostic significance.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients receiving pemetrexed for platinum-resistant advanced UC between 2008 and 2013 were identified. The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST, version 1.1) were used to determine response rate. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to examine the association of various factors with efficacy and survival outcomes. Hematologic toxicity and laboratory abnormalities were recorded.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-nine patients were treated with pemetrexed. The objective response rate was 5% (95% confidence interval: 1%-9%), and the median duration of response was 8 months. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 2.4 months, and the 6-month PFS rate was 14%. There was no significant difference in response rate by age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, or number of prior therapies. On multivariable analysis, ECOG performance status (p < .01), liver metastases (p = .02), and NLR (p < .01) had independent prognostic significance for overall survival.

CONCLUSION

This 129-patient series is the largest reported data set describing pemetrexed use in advanced UC. Activity was modest, although discovery of molecular biomarkers predictive of response would be valuable to identify the small subset of patients who do gain significant benefit. Overall, the data highlight the urgent need to develop novel therapies for these patients.

Prognostic and Prediction Tools in Bladder Cancer: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

CONTEXT

This review focuses on risk assessment and prediction tools for bladder cancer (BCa).

OBJECTIVE

To review the current knowledge on risk assessment and prediction tools to enhance clinical decision making and counseling of patients with BCa.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A literature search in English was performed using PubMed in July 2013. Relevant risk assessment and prediction tools for BCa were selected. More than 1600 publications were retrieved. Special attention was given to studies that investigated the clinical benefit of a prediction tool.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Most prediction tools for BCa focus on the prediction of disease recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer or disease recurrence and survival after radical cystectomy. Although these tools are helpful, recent prediction tools aim to address a specific clinical problem, such as the prediction of organ-confined disease and lymph node metastasis to help identify patients who might benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Although a large number of prediction tools have been reported in recent years, many of them lack external validation. Few studies have investigated the clinical utility of any given model as measured by its ability to improve clinical decision making. There is a need for novel biomarkers to improve the accuracy and utility of prediction tools for BCa.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision tools hold the promise of facilitating the shared decision process, potentially improving clinical outcomes for BCa patients. Prediction models need external validation and assessment of clinical utility before they can be incorporated into routine clinical care.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We looked at models that aim to predict outcomes for patients with bladder cancer (BCa). We found a large number of prediction models that hold the promise of facilitating treatment decisions for patients with BCa. However, many models are missing confirmation in a different patient cohort, and only a few studies have tested the clinical utility of any given model as measured by its ability to improve clinical decision making.

Future directions and targeted therapies in bladder cancer

There are substantial unmet needs for patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC). First-line cisplatin-based chemotherapy regimens yield a median survival of 12 to 15 months and long-term survival in 5% to 15%. Salvage systemic therapy yields a median survival of 6 to 8 months. Hence, the discovery of novel therapeutic targets is of paramount importance. Recent molecular analyses have provided insights regarding molecular tumor tissue alterations on multiple platforms. A multidisciplinary effort using innovative clinical trial designs and exploiting preclinical signals of robust activity guided by predictive biomarkers may provide much needed clinical advances in therapy for advanced UC.

Conditional survival of patients treated with first-line chemotherapy for metastatic urothelial cancer

BACKGROUND

Measures of prognosis for cancer patients are typically evaluated at the time of diagnosis. However, this study assessed the changes in 2-year CS rates after first-line chemotherapy for metastatic UC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Conditional overall survival and CPFS probability were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Adjusted survival functions were stratified according to age groups (< 70 years vs. ≥ 70 years), sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS; ECOG PS ≤ 2 vs. ECOG PS > 2), pretreatment Hb levels (< 12 mg/dL vs. ≥ 12 mg/dL) and pretreatment NLR (< 3 vs. ≥ 3). Pairs of CS curves were compared using the Mantel-Haenszel log-rank test.

RESULTS

Two hundred ninety-eight patients were included in this analysis, 233 were male, and their median age was 69 years. First-line median overall survival and progression-free survival were 10.7 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.6-12.6) and 6.0 months (95% CI, 5.5-7.1), respectively. CPFS and COS showed an increasing trend in the population considered (b = 0.35; P < .001 and b = 0.79; P < .001, respectively). A significant increase in terms of COS and CPFS trends was identified in patients with age < 70 years (P = .02 and P = .005, respectively) and pretreatment NLR ≤ 3 (P = .05 and P < .001, respectively). Patients with Hb levels < 12 g/dL showed a significantly poorer 2-year COS.

CONCLUSION

The conditional probability of survival at 2 years from the start of first-line chemotherapy for advanced UC changes over time according to clinical characteristics.

Cisplatin-based first-line therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma after previous perioperative cisplatin-based therapy

BACKGROUND

Outcomes with cisplatin-based first-line therapy for advanced UC after previous perioperative cisplatin-based chemotherapy are unclear. In this study we evaluated outcomes with a focus on the effect of time from previous cisplatin-based perioperative chemotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were collected for patients who received cisplatin-based first-line therapy for advanced UC after previous perioperative cisplatin-based therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the prognostic ability of visceral metastasis, ECOG PS, TFPC, anemia, leukocytosis, and albumin on overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Data were available for 41 patients from 8 institutions including 31 men (75.6%). The median age was 61 (range, 41-77) years, most received gemcitabine plus cisplatin (n = 26; 63.4%), and the median number of cycles was 4 (range, 1-8). The median OS was 68 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI], 48.0-81.0). Multivariable Cox regression analysis results showed an independent prognostic effect on OS for PS > 0 versus 0 (hazard ratio [HR], 4.56 [95% CI, 1.66-12.52]; P = .003) and TFPC ≥ 78 weeks versus < 78 weeks (HR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.21-1.07]; P = .072). The prognostic model for OS was internally validated with c-index = 0.68. Patients with TFPC < 52 weeks, 52 to 104 weeks, and ≥ 104 weeks had median survival of 42, 70, and 162 weeks, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Longer TFPC ≥ 78 weeks and ECOG PS = 0 were independently prognostic for better survival with cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy for advanced UC after previous perioperative cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The data support using TFPC ≥ 52 weeks to rechallenge with cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy for metastatic disease.

Postchemotherapy lymphadenectomy in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma: long-term efficacy and implications for trial design

BACKGROUND

The contribution of postchemotherapy pelvic (PLND) or retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy (RPLND) on survival in patients with advanced and metastatic UC is still unclear.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between September 1986 and May 2012, 157 patients with locally advanced or metastatic UC received first-line chemotherapy consisting of mMVAC (modified methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin), according to our policy. Patients with subdiaphragmatic nodal disease and/or local recurrence only and who experienced at least stable disease (SD) were selected. Fifty-nine patients were identified, 28 of whom underwent surgery, 31 started consolidation chemotherapy with or without radiotherapy or observation. The prognostic effect of candidate factors on survival was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 14 PLND and 14 RPLND patients were identified after they had achieved a complete response (CR; n = 7) or a partial response (PR) and SD (n = 21). Median follow-up was 88 months (interquartile range, 24-211 months). Median PFS was 18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 11-not estimated) and 11 (95% CI, 5-19) months, respectively, in favor of the surgical cohort and curves were statistically different (log-rank test, P = .009). In multivariate analysis, postchemotherapy surgery was significantly prognostic for PFS and OS and response to chemotherapy (PR and SD vs. CR) was prognostic for PFS and trended to significance for OS. A model including these 2 factors showed bootstrap-corrected Harrel C statistics for PFS and OS of 0.65 and 0.68, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In well selected patients with UC like those who achieved a clinical benefit with chemotherapy and had nodal metastatic disease, there was a survival advantage in removal of disease residuals.

Interim fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography for early metabolic assessment of therapeutic response to chemotherapy for metastatic transitional cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prognostic impact of early metabolic response by fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) after 2 cycles of first-line chemotherapy is still unrecognized in metastatic transitional cell carcinoma (TCC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with metastatic TCC receiving the modified combination of methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin (MVAC), according to institutional protocol, underwent computed tomography (CT) and FDG-PET imaging at baseline, a restaging with PET imaging after 2 cycles only (PET2), and a CT (± FDG-PET) scan at the end of treatment and during follow-up. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method; univariate (UVA) and multivariate (MVA) Cox models were fitted. Prespecified variables were the presence of visceral metastases, nodal or soft tissue disease, and early PET response.

RESULTS

In the period from May 2010 to October 2012, 31 patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 received the modified MVAC regimen every 3 weeks. In all, 6 patients (19.3%) had a complete response (CR) and 17 (54.8%) a partial metabolic response (PR), 4 had stable disease (SD), and 4 progressed. PET2 responders had a median PFS of 8 months (95 % CI, 7-11 mo) compared with 3 months (95 % CI, 2-5 mo) of patients without response (P = .024). They also had a significant benefit in 8-month PFS (P < .001 via Klein test) and 15-month OS (P = .016). PET2 response was significant for PFS in both UVA and MVA Cox models (P = .027 and P = .023, respectively).

CONCLUSION

PET response after 2 cycles of first-line chemotherapy, compared with detection by early CT, was associated with longer PFS and OS in advanced TCC and warrants further investigation in the field.

Refining patient selection for neoadjuvant chemotherapy before radical cystectomy

PURPOSE

We evaluated the survival of patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer undergoing radical cystectomy without neoadjuvant chemotherapy to confirm the utility of existing clinical tools to identify low risk patients who could be treated with radical cystectomy alone and a high risk group most likely to benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer who underwent radical cystectomy without neoadjuvant chemotherapy at our institution between 2000 and 2010. Patients were considered high risk based on the clinical presence of hydroureteronephrosis, cT3b-T4a disease, and/or histological evidence of lymphovascular invasion, micropapillary or neuroendocrine features on transurethral resection. We evaluated survival (disease specific, progression-free and overall) and rate of pathological up staging. An independent cohort of patients from another institution was used to confirm our findings.

RESULTS

We identified 98 high risk and 199 low risk patients eligible for analysis. High risk patients exhibited decreased 5-year overall survival (47.0% vs 64.8%) and decreased disease specific (64.3% vs 83.5%) and progression-free (62.0% vs 84.1%) survival probabilities compared to low risk patients (p <0.001). Survival outcomes were confirmed in the validation subset. On final pathology 49.2% of low risk patients had disease up staged.

CONCLUSIONS

The 5-year disease specific survival of low risk patients was greater than 80%, supporting the distinction of high risk and low risk muscle invasive bladder cancer. The presence of high risk features identifies patients with a poor prognosis who are most likely to benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy, while many of those with low risk disease can undergo surgery up front with good expectations and avoid chemotherapy associated toxicity.