The "clinic" medical-dosimetric database of Mayak production association workers: structure, characteristics and prospects of utilization

Ischemic heart disease in nuclear workers first employed at the Mayak PA in 1948-1972

Following an earlier study of incidence and mortality of ischemic heart disease (IHD) published in 2010, a second analysis has been conducted based on an extended cohort and five additional years of follow-up. The cohort includes 18,763 workers, of whom 25% were females, first employed at the Mayak PA in 1948-1972 and followed up to the end of 2005. Some of these workers were exposed to external gamma rays only, and others were exposed to a mixture of external gamma-rays and internal alpha-particle radiation. A total of 6,134 cases and 2,629 deaths from IHD were identified in the study cohort. A statistically significant increasing trend was found with total external gamma-ray dose in IHD incidence (ERR/Gy 0.099; 95% CI: 0.045-0.153) after adjusting for non-radiation factors. This value reduced slightly when adjusting for internal liver dose. There was no statistically significant increase trend for internal liver dose in IHD incidence. These findings were consistent with an earlier study. New findings in IHD incidence revealed a statistically significant decrease in IHD incidence among workers exposed to external gamma-rays doses of 0.2-0.5 Gy in relation to the external doses below 0.2 Gy. This decreased risk is heavily influenced by female workers. This finding has never been reported in other studies, and the results should be treated with caution. The findings for IHD mortality are similar to those results in the earlier analysis; there was no statistically significant trend with external gamma-ray dose or for internal liver dose after adjustment for external dose. The risk estimates obtained from these analyses of IHD incidence and mortality in relation to external gamma-rays in the cohort of Mayak workers are generally compatible with those from other large occupational radiation worker studies and the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

Dose-responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors

The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose-response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose-response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose-response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose-response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose-response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose-responses for risk estimates.

Mayak workers study cohort. An inter-institutional comparison of causes of death in the cause-of-death register of Ozyorsk in the Russian Federation

BACKGROUND

The cause-of-death register at the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI), Ozyorsk, Russia, was established to document the number and causes of deaths in the Mayak workers cohort, which includes all persons (N = 22,377) employed at Mayak nuclear facility between 1948 and 1982. Most workers were occupationally exposed to high doses of ionizing radiation and have been shown to have increased risks of various chronic diseases including cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the quality of cause of death coding in the SUBI register.

METHODS

A random sample of 246 deaths (~1% of the total) was coded independently at the SUBI and the Danish Cancer Society using the International Classification of Diseases 9 (ICD-9). Proportions of matching codes were calculated.

RESULTS

Overall, 233 deaths (95%) were identically classified using the ICD-9 main category matching. Excluding mismatches that were considered to be incorrectly coded during validation, the validity of the register increased to 98%. Using the specific ICD-9 first three-digit matching, 182 deaths were identically coded (74%) and the respective validity of the register was 85%. There were also some non-resolvable discrepancies demonstrating limitations of assigning one code for each death or using language-adapted ICD-9 version.

CONCLUSIONS

This validation study was an important quality check of a register used for mortality follow-up in a highly influential epidemiological study on radiation-related health effects. The results of the inter-institutional comparison were generally favourable; however, since the comparison revealed individual mismatches and some systematically differing coding practices, it is essential to repeat it on a regular basis in order to maintain a high quality.

ICRP publication 118: ICRP statement on tissue reactions and early and late effects of radiation in normal tissues and organs--threshold doses for tissue reactions in a radiation protection context

This report provides a review of early and late effects of radiation in normal tissues and organs with respect to radiation protection. It was instigated following a recommendation in Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007), and it provides updated estimates of 'practical' threshold doses for tissue injury defined at the level of 1% incidence. Estimates are given for morbidity and mortality endpoints in all organ systems following acute, fractionated, or chronic exposure. The organ systems comprise the haematopoietic, immune, reproductive, circulatory, respiratory, musculoskeletal, endocrine, and nervous systems; the digestive and urinary tracts; the skin; and the eye. Particular attention is paid to circulatory disease and cataracts because of recent evidence of higher incidences of injury than expected after lower doses; hence, threshold doses appear to be lower than previously considered. This is largely because of the increasing incidences with increasing times after exposure. In the context of protection, it is the threshold doses for very long follow-up times that are the most relevant for workers and the public; for example, the atomic bomb survivors with 40-50years of follow-up. Radiotherapy data generally apply for shorter follow-up times because of competing causes of death in cancer patients, and hence the risks of radiation-induced circulatory disease at those earlier times are lower. A variety of biological response modifiers have been used to help reduce late reactions in many tissues. These include antioxidants, radical scavengers, inhibitors of apoptosis, anti-inflammatory drugs, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, growth factors, and cytokines. In many cases, these give dose modification factors of 1.1-1.2, and in a few cases 1.5-2, indicating the potential for increasing threshold doses in known exposure cases. In contrast, there are agents that enhance radiation responses, notably other cytotoxic agents such as antimetabolites, alkylating agents, anti-angiogenic drugs, and antibiotics, as well as genetic and comorbidity factors. Most tissues show a sparing effect of dose fractionation, so that total doses for a given endpoint are higher if the dose is fractionated rather than when given as a single dose. However, for reactions manifesting very late after low total doses, particularly for cataracts and circulatory disease, it appears that the rate of dose delivery does not modify the low incidence. This implies that the injury in these cases and at these low dose levels is caused by single-hit irreparable-type events. For these two tissues, a threshold dose of 0.5Gy is proposed herein for practical purposes, irrespective of the rate of dose delivery, and future studies may elucidate this judgement further.

Direct and indirect tasks on assessment of dose and time distributions and thresholds of acute radiation exposure

Mathematical methods were developed to construct dose and time distributions and their associated risks and threshold values for lethal and non-lethal effects of acute radiation exposure to include mortality and incidence, prodromal vomiting, and agranulocytosis. A new distribution (T-model) was obtained to describe time parameters of acute radiation syndrome such as the latency period, time to onset of vomiting, and time to initiation of agranulocytosis. Based on the dose and time distributions, the parameter translation method was defined using an orthogonal regression, which allows one to solve for these distributions in the case of acute radiation exposure. The assessment of threshold doses was performed for some effects of acute radiation syndrome: for the latency period, ∼6-8 Gy absorbed dose and ∼0.7-0.9 h time to onset of vomiting; and for incidence (agranulocytosis), ∼2-3 Gy absorbed dose and ∼2-3 h time to onset of vomiting. The obtained new formula for assessment of radiation risk is applicable to the time parameters of acute radiation syndrome.

Cerebrovascular diseases in nuclear workers first employed at the Mayak PA in 1948-1972

Incidence and mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (430-438 ICD-9 codes) have been studied in a cohort of 18,763 workers first employed at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) in 1948-1972 and followed up to the end of 2005. Some of the workers were exposed to external gamma-rays only while others were exposed to a mixture of external gamma-rays and internal alpha-particle radiation due to incorporated (239)Pu. After adjusting for non-radiation factors, there were significantly increasing trends in CVD incidence with total absorbed dose from external gamma-rays and total absorbed dose to liver from internal alpha radiation. The CVD incidence was statistically significantly higher among workers with total absorbed external gamma-ray doses greater than 0.20 Gy compared to those exposed to lower doses; the data were consistent with a linear trend in risk with external dose. The CVD incidence was statistically significantly higher among workers with total absorbed internal alpha-radiation doses to liver from incorporated (239)Pu greater than 0.025 Gy compared to those exposed to lower doses. There was no statistically significant trend in CVD mortality risk with either external gamma-ray dose or internal alpha-radiation dose to liver. The risk estimates obtained are generally compatible with those from other large occupational studies, although the incidence data point to higher risk estimates compared to those from the Japanese A-bomb survivors. Further studies of the unique cohort of Mayak workers chronically exposed to external and internal radiation will allow improving the reliability and validating the radiation safety standards for occupational and public exposure.

Assessment of risks and dose thresholds for some effects of acute exposure

Findings from the analyses of the dose-response relationship are reviewed with regard to different effects of acute radiation exposure. The analyses have been performed based on the dosimetry and clinical data for the nuclear workers acutely exposed to gamma rays or gamma rays and neutrons as a result of radiation accidents at the Mayak Production Association (Russia). The statistically significant risk curves for morbidity and mortality from acute radiation syndrome (ARS), as well as risks of the onset of vomiting at the prodromal phase and agranulocytosis, have been obtained. The Weibull model appropriately describes the corresponding risk curves. Estimates of the dose thresholds have been obtained for ARS morbidity (∼0.7 Gy) and mortality (∼6-7 Gy), vomiting at the prodromal phase (∼1.5 Gy), and agranulocytosis (∼3.5 Gy). The statistically significant power dependence between the onset of vomiting at the prodromal phase and the onset of agranulocytosis, as well as the dose dependence for the onset of agranulocytosis, has been revealed.

Cardiovascular diseases in the cohort of workers first employed at Mayak PA in 1948-1958

Incidence of and mortality from cardiovascular diseases have been studied in a cohort of 12,210 workers first employed at one of the main plants of the Mayak nuclear facility during 1948-1958 and followed up to 31 December 2000. Information on external gamma-ray doses is available for virtually all of these workers (99.9%); the mean total gamma-ray dose (+/-SD) was 0.91 +/- 0.95 Gy (99% percentile 3.9 Gy) for men and 0.65 +/- 0.75 Gy (99% percentile 2.99 Gy) for women. In contrast, plutonium body burden was measured for only 30.0% of workers; among those monitored, the mean cumulative liver dose from plutonium alpha exposure (+/- SD) was 0.40 +/- 1.15 Gy (99% percentile 5.88 Gy) for men and 0.81 +/- 4.60 Gy (99% percentile 15.95 Gy) for women. A total of 3751 cases of ischemic heart disease (IHD), including 683 cases of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and 1495 IHD deaths, including 338 AMI deaths, were identified in the study cohort during the follow-up period. Having adjusted for non-radiation factors, there were statistically significant increasing trends with both total external gamma-ray dose and internal liver dose in IHD incidence. The trend with internal dose was weaker and was not statistically significant after adjusting for external dose, whereas the external dose trend was little changed after adjusting for internal dose. The trend with external dose in IHD mortality was not statistically significantly greater than zero but was consistent with the corresponding trend in IHD incidence. The estimated trend in IHD mortality with internal dose was lower and was not statistically significant once adjustment was made for external dose. There was a statistically significantly increasing trend in AMI incidence but not AMI incidence with external dose. The risk estimates for IHD in relation to external radiation are generally compatible with those from other large occupational studies and the Japanese A-bomb survivors.

Cerebrovascular diseases in the cohort of workers first employed at Mayak PA in 1948-1958

The incidence of and mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have been studied in a cohort of 12,210 workers first employed at one of the main plants of the Mayak nuclear facility during 1948-1958 and followed up to 31 December 2000. Information on external γ-ray doses is available for virtually all of these workers (99.9%); the mean total γ-ray dose (± SD) was 0.91 ± 0.95 Gy (99th percentile 3.9 Gy) for men and 0.65 ± 0.75 Gy (99th percentile 2.99 Gy) for women. In contrast, plutonium body burden was measured only for 30.0% of workers; among those monitored, the mean cumulative liver dose from plutonium α-particle exposure (± SD) was 0.40 ± 1.15 Gy (99th percentile 5.88 Gy) for men and 0.81 ± 4.60 Gy (99th percentile 15.95 Gy) for women. A total of 4418 cases of CVD, including 665 cases of stroke, and 753 deaths from CVD, including 404 deaths from stroke, were identified in the study cohort. Having adjusted for non-radiation factors, there were statistically significant increasing trends in CVD incidence but not mortality with both total external γ-ray dose and internal liver dose. Much of the evidence for increased incidence in relation to external dose arose for workers with cumulative doses above 1 Gy. Although the dose response is consistent with linearity, the statistical power to detect non-linearity at external doses below 1 Gy was low. CVD incidence was statistically significantly higher among workers with a plutonium liver dose above 0.1 Gy. There was a statistically significant increasing trend in incidence with increasing internal dose, even after adjusting for external dose, although the trend estimates differed between workers at different plants. The risk estimates for external radiation are generally compatible with those from other large occupational studies, although the incidence data point to higher risk estimates compared to those from the Japanese A-bomb survivors.