Extended high viremics: a substantial fraction of individuals maintain high plasma viral RNA levels after acute HIV-1 subtype C infection

Prevalence of seroconversion symptoms and relationship to set-point viral load: findings from a subtype C epidemic, 1995-2009

OBJECTIVE

To describe symptoms, physical examination findings, and set-point viral load associated with acute HIV seroconversion in a heterosexual cohort of HIV-discordant couples in Zambia.

DESIGN

We followed HIV serodiscordant couples in Lusaka, Zambia from 1995 to 2009 with HIV testing of negative partners and symptom inventories 3 monthly, and physical examinations annually.

METHODS

We compared prevalence of self-reported or treated symptoms (malaria syndrome, chronic diarrhea, asthenia, night sweats, and oral candidiasis) and annual physical examination findings (unilateral or bilateral neck, axillary, or inguinal adenopathy; and dermatosis) in seroconverting vs. HIV-negative or HIV-positive intervals, controlling for repeated observations, age, and sex. A composite score comprised of significant symptoms and physical examination findings predictive of seroconversion vs. HIV-negative intervals was constructed. We modeled the relationship between number of symptoms and physical examination findings at seroconversion and log set-point viral load using linear regression.

RESULTS

Two thousand, three hundred and eighty-eight HIV-negative partners were followed for a median of 18 months; 429 seroconversions occurred. Neither symptoms nor physical examination findings were reported for most seroconverters. Seroconversion was significantly associated with malaria syndrome among nondiarrheic patients [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.0], night sweats (aOR = 1.4), and bilateral axillary (aOR = 1.6), inguinal (aOR = 2.2), and neck (aOR = 2.2) adenopathy relative to HIV-negative intervals. Median number of symptoms and findings was positively associated with set-point viral load (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Although most acute and early infections were asymptomatic, malaria syndrome was more common and more severe during seroconversion. When present, symptoms and physical examination findings were nonspecific and associated with higher set-point viremia.

Transmission selects for HIV-1 strains of intermediate virulence: a modelling approach

Recent data shows that HIV-1 is characterised by variation in viral virulence factors that is heritable between infections, which suggests that viral virulence can be naturally selected at the population level. A trade-off between transmissibility and duration of infection appears to favour viruses of intermediate virulence. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of putative viral genotypes that differ in their virulence. As a proxy for virulence, we use set-point viral load (SPVL), which is the steady density of viral particles in blood during asymptomatic infection. Mutation, the dependency of survival and transmissibility on SPVL, and host effects were incorporated into the model. The model was fitted to data to estimate unknown parameters, and was found to fit existing data well. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters produced a model in which SPVL converged from any initial conditions to observed values within 100–150 years of first emergence of HIV-1. We estimated the 1) host effect and 2) the extent to which the viral virulence genotype mutates from one infection to the next, and found a trade-off between these two parameters in explaining the variation in SPVL. The model confirms that evolution of virulence towards intermediate levels is sufficiently rapid for it to have happened in the early stages of the HIV epidemic, and confirms that existing viral loads are nearly optimal given the assumed constraints on evolution. The model provides a useful framework under which to examine the future evolution of HIV-1 virulence.

Recent studies have suggested that virulence in HIV-1 is partly a characteristic of the virus which is carried from one infection to the next. An infection with intermediate virulence will produce more transmissions during the infectious lifetime because it optimises the trade-off between rate of transmission and duration of infection. Natural selection acts on the heritable variation to increase the relative prevalence of strains with intermediate virulence. In this study we model the evolution of virulence in the viral population as these more successful strains are preferentially transmitted. We fit this model to data from transmitting couples, and find that the model fits the data well. We use this fit to estimate the contribution of the host and the virus to virulence, which complements recent estimates of the heritability of virulence. We also estimate the rate at which the viral determinants of virulence evolve between infections, and this provides predictions for how rapidly the virulence of HIV-1 evolves in a population. We suggest that natural selection on transmissibility results in substantial evolution of virulence in the population. This is sufficiently rapid for virulence to have reached current levels over the available timescale of the human epidemic.

Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy that reduces viral replication could limit the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples.

METHODS

In nine countries, we enrolled 1763 couples in which one partner was HIV-1-positive and the other was HIV-1-negative; 54% of the subjects were from Africa, and 50% of infected partners were men. HIV-1-infected subjects with CD4 counts between 350 and 550 cells per cubic millimeter were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive antiretroviral therapy either immediately (early therapy) or after a decline in the CD4 count or the onset of HIV-1-related symptoms (delayed therapy). The primary prevention end point was linked HIV-1 transmission in HIV-1-negative partners. The primary clinical end point was the earliest occurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis, severe bacterial infection, a World Health Organization stage 4 event, or death.

RESULTS

As of February 21, 2011, a total of 39 HIV-1 transmissions were observed (incidence rate, 1.2 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 1.7); of these, 28 were virologically linked to the infected partner (incidence rate, 0.9 per 100 person-years, 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.3). Of the 28 linked transmissions, only 1 occurred in the early-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.27; P<0.001). Subjects receiving early therapy had fewer treatment end points (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.88; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy reduced rates of sexual transmission of HIV-1 and clinical events, indicating both personal and public health benefits from such therapy. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 052 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00074581.).