Big data need big theory too

The 2019 mathematical oncology roadmap

Whether the nom de guerre is Mathematical Oncology, Computational or Systems Biology, Theoretical Biology, Evolutionary Oncology, Bioinformatics, or simply Basic Science, there is no denying that mathematics continues to play an increasingly prominent role in cancer research. Mathematical Oncology-defined here simply as the use of mathematics in cancer research-complements and overlaps with a number of other fields that rely on mathematics as a core methodology. As a result, Mathematical Oncology has a broad scope, ranging from theoretical studies to clinical trials designed with mathematical models. This Roadmap differentiates Mathematical Oncology from related fields and demonstrates specific areas of focus within this unique field of research. The dominant theme of this Roadmap is the personalization of medicine through mathematics, modelling, and simulation. This is achieved through the use of patient-specific clinical data to: develop individualized screening strategies to detect cancer earlier; make predictions of response to therapy; design adaptive, patient-specific treatment plans to overcome therapy resistance; and establish domain-specific standards to share model predictions and to make models and simulations reproducible. The cover art for this Roadmap was chosen as an apt metaphor for the beautiful, strange, and evolving relationship between mathematics and cancer.

Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale

This short contribution introduces a theme issue dedicated to 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'. It holds a collection of articles presenting cutting-edge research in generic multiscale modelling and multiscale computing, and applications thereof on high-performance computing systems. The special issue starts with a position paper to discuss the paradigm of multiscale computing in the face of the emerging exascale, followed by a review and critical assessment of existing multiscale computing environments. This theme issue provides a state-of-the-art account of generic multiscale computing, as well as exciting examples of applications of such concepts in domains ranging from astrophysics, via material science and fusion, to biomedical sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'.

Big data: the end of the scientific method?

For it is not the abundance of knowledge, but the interior feeling and taste of things, which is accustomed to satisfy the desire of the soul. (Saint Ignatius of Loyola). We argue that the boldest claims of big data (BD) are in need of revision and toning-down, in view of a few basic lessons learned from the science of complex systems. We point out that, once the most extravagant claims of BD are properly discarded, a synergistic merging of BD with big theory offers considerable potential to spawn a new scientific paradigm capable of overcoming some of the major barriers confronted by the modern scientific method originating with Galileo. These obstacles are due to the presence of nonlinearity, non-locality and hyperdimensions which one encounters frequently in multi-scale modelling of complex systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'.

Review: Precision medicine and driver mutations: Computational methods, functional assays and conformational principles for interpreting cancer drivers

At the root of the so-called precision medicine or precision oncology, which is our focus here, is the hypothesis that cancer treatment would be considerably better if therapies were guided by a tumor’s genomic alterations. This hypothesis has sparked major initiatives focusing on whole-genome and/or exome sequencing, creation of large databases, and developing tools for their statistical analyses—all aspiring to identify actionable alterations, and thus molecular targets, in a patient. At the center of the massive amount of collected sequence data is their interpretations that largely rest on statistical analysis and phenotypic observations. Statistics is vital, because it guides identification of cancer-driving alterations. However, statistics of mutations do not identify a change in protein conformation; therefore, it may not define sufficiently accurate actionable mutations, neglecting those that are rare. Among the many thematic overviews of precision oncology, this review innovates by further comprehensively including precision pharmacology, and within this framework, articulating its protein structural landscape and consequences to cellular signaling pathways. It provides the underlying physicochemical basis, thereby also opening the door to a broader community.

Ensemble-Based Replica Exchange Alchemical Free Energy Methods: The Effect of Protein Mutations on Inhibitor Binding

The accurate prediction of the binding affinity changes of drugs caused by protein mutations is a major goal in clinical personalized medicine. We have developed an ensemble-based free energy approach called thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling (TIES), which yields accurate, precise, and reproducible binding affinities. TIES has been shown to perform well for predictions of free energy differences of congeneric ligands to a wide range of target proteins. We have recently introduced variants of TIES, which incorporate the enhanced sampling technique REST2 (replica exchange with solute tempering) and the free energy estimator MBAR (Bennett acceptance ratio). Here we further extend the TIES methodology to study relative binding affinities caused by protein mutations when bound to a ligand, a variant which we call TIES-PM. We apply TIES-PM to fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) to investigate binding free energy changes upon protein mutations. The results show that TIES-PM with REST2 successfully captures a large conformational change and generates correct free energy differences caused by a gatekeeper mutation located in the binding pocket. Simulations without REST2 fail to overcome the energy barrier between the conformations, and hence the results are highly sensitive to the initial structures. We also discuss situations where REST2 does not improve the accuracy of predictions.

Big Data: From Forecasting to Mesoscopic Understanding. Meta-Profiling as Complex Systems

We consider Big Data as a phenomenon with acquired properties, similar to collective behaviours, that establishes virtual collective beings. We consider the occurrence of ongoing non-equivalent multiple properties in the conceptual framework of structural dynamics given by sequences of structures and not only by different values assumed by the same structure. We consider the difference between modelling and profiling in a constructivist way, as De Finetti intended probability to exist, depending on the configuration taken into consideration. The past has little or no influence, while events and their configurations are not memorised. Any configuration of events is new, and the probabilistic values to be considered are reset. As for collective behaviours, we introduce methodological and conceptual proposals using mesoscopic variables and their property profiles and meta-profile Big Data and non-computable profiles which were inspired by the use of natural computing to deal with cyber-ecosystems. The focus is on ongoing profiles, in which the arising properties trace trajectories, rather than assuming that we can foresee them based on the past.

On the Ethics of Biodiversity Models, Forecasts and Scenarios

The development of numerical models to produce realistic prospective scenarios for the evolution of biological diversity is essential. Only integrative impact assessment models are able to take into account the diverse and complex interactions embedded in social-ecological systems. The knowledge used is objective, the procedure of their integration is rigorous and the data massive. Nevertheless, the technical choices (model ontology, treatment of scales and uncertainty, data choice and pre-processing, technique of representation, etc.) made at each stage of the development of models and scenarios are mostly circumstantial, depending on both the skills of modellers on a project and the means available to them. In the end, the scenarios selected and the way they are simulated limit the futures explored, and the options offered to decision makers and stakeholders to act. The ethical implications of these circumstantial choices are generally not documented, explained or even perceived by modellers. Applied ethics propose a coherent set of principles to guide a critical reflection on the social and environmental consequences of integrative modelling and simulation of biodiversity scenarios. Such reflection should be incorporated into the actual modelling process, in a broad participatory framework, and foster effective moral involvement of modellers, policy-makers and stakeholders, in preference to the application of fixed ethical rules.

Mathematical models of tumor cell proliferation: A review of the literature

INTRODUCTION

A defining hallmark of cancer is aberrant cell proliferation. Efforts to understand the generative properties of cancer cells span all biological scales: from genetic deviations and alterations of metabolic pathways to physical stresses due to overcrowding, as well as the effects of therapeutics and the immune system. While these factors have long been studied in the laboratory, mathematical and computational techniques are being increasingly applied to help understand and forecast tumor growth and treatment response. Advantages of mathematical modeling of proliferation include the ability to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal development of tumors across multiple experimental scales. Central to proliferation modeling is the incorporation of available biological data and validation with experimental data. Areas covered: We present an overview of past and current mathematical strategies directed at understanding tumor cell proliferation. We identify areas for mathematical development as motivated by available experimental and clinical evidence, with a particular emphasis on emerging, non-invasive imaging technologies. Expert commentary: The data required to legitimize mathematical models are often difficult or (currently) impossible to obtain. We suggest areas for further investigation to establish mathematical models that more effectively utilize available data to make informed predictions on tumor cell proliferation.

Quantifying the value of surveillance data for improving model predictions of lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models.

Methodology and principal findings

We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination.

Significance

Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location.

Although parasite transmission models offer powerful tools for predicting the impacts of interventions, there is growing realization that these models can be useful for this purpose only if their governing biological processes are well defined. Recently, model-data assimilation has been applied to address this problem and improve the performance of process-oriented models for ecological forecasting. Here, we developed an analytical framework that allowed the sequential coupling of the three existing lymphatic filariasis (LF) models with longitudinal infection monitoring data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) to examine the relative value of such data for parameterizing these models and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to break parasite transmission. We found that data-informed models provided more precise and reliable forecasts of elimination timelines in the study sites compared to model-only predictions, and that data collected up to 5 years post-MDA reduced each model’s predictive uncertainty most. We also found that this improved performance may be intriguingly related to temporal changes in system dynamics. Our results underscore the significance of sequential model-data fusion for enhancing the understanding of LF transmission dynamics, design of surveillance, and generation of reliable model predictions for management decision making.

Clinical judgement in the era of big data and predictive analytics

Clinical judgement is a central and longstanding issue in the philosophy of medicine which has generated significant interest over the past few decades. In this article, we explore different approaches to clinical judgement articulated in the literature, focusing in particular on data-driven, mathematical approaches which we contrast with narrative, virtue-based approaches to clinical reasoning. We discuss the tension between these different clinical epistemologies and further explore the implications of big data and machine learning for a philosophy of clinical judgement. We argue for a pluralistic, integrative approach, and demonstrate how narrative, virtue-based clinical reasoning will remain indispensable in an era of big data and predictive analytics.

Uncertainty Quantification in Alchemical Free Energy Methods

Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand–protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation—an ensemble of independent MD simulations—which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

Developing WHO guidelines: Time to formally include evidence from mathematical modelling studies

In recent years, the number of mathematical modelling studies has increased steeply. Many of the questions addressed in these studies are relevant to the development of World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, but modelling studies are rarely formally included as part of the body of evidence. An expert consultation hosted by WHO, a survey of modellers and users of modelling studies, and literature reviews informed the development of recommendations on when and how to incorporate the results of modelling studies into WHO guidelines. In this article, we argue that modelling studies should routinely be considered in the process of developing WHO guidelines, but particularly in the evaluation of public health programmes, long-term effectiveness or comparative effectiveness.  There should be a systematic and transparent approach to identifying relevant published models, and to commissioning new models.  We believe that the inclusion of evidence from modelling studies into the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) process is possible and desirable, with relatively few adaptations.  No single "one-size-fits-all" approach is appropriate to assess the quality of modelling studies. The concept of the 'credibility' of the model, which takes the conceptualization of the problem, model structure, input data, different dimensions of uncertainty, as well as transparency and validation into account, is more appropriate than 'risk of bias'.

Developing WHO guidelines: Time to formally include evidence from mathematical modelling studies

In recent years, the number of mathematical modelling studies has increased steeply. Many of the questions addressed in these studies are relevant to the development of World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, but modelling studies are rarely formally included as part of the body of evidence. An expert consultation hosted by WHO, a survey of modellers and users of modelling studies, and literature reviews informed the development of recommendations on when and how to incorporate the results of modelling studies into WHO guidelines. In this article, we argue that modelling studies should routinely be considered in the process of developing WHO guidelines, but particularly in the evaluation of public health programmes, long-term effectiveness or comparative effectiveness.  There should be a systematic and transparent approach to identifying relevant published models, and to commissioning new models.  We believe that the inclusion of evidence from modelling studies into the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) process is possible and desirable, with relatively few adaptations.  No single "one-size-fits-all" approach is appropriate to assess the quality of modelling studies. The concept of the 'credibility' of the model, which takes the conceptualization of the problem, model structure, input data, different dimensions of uncertainty, as well as transparency and validation into account, is more appropriate than 'risk of bias'.

Single-Subject Studies in Translational Nutrition Research

There is a great deal of interest in personalized, individualized, or precision interventions for disease and health-risk mitigation. This is as true of nutrition-based intervention and prevention strategies as it is for pharmacotherapies and pharmaceutical-oriented prevention strategies. Essentially, technological breakthroughs have enabled researchers to probe an individual's unique genetic, biochemical, physiological, behavioral, and exposure profile, allowing them to identify very specific and often nuanced factors that an individual might possess, which may make it more or less likely that he or she responds favorably to a particular intervention (e.g., nutrient supplementation) or disease prevention strategy (e.g., specific diet). However, as compelling and intuitive as personalized nutrition might be in the current era in which data-intensive biomedical characterization of individuals is possible, appropriately and objectively vetting personalized nutrition strategies is not trivial and requires novel study designs and data analytical methods. These designs and methods must consider a very integrated use of the multiple contemporary biomedical assays and technologies that motivate them, which adds to their complexity. Single-subject or N-of-1 trials can be used to assess the utility of personalized interventions and, in addition, can be crafted in such a way as to accommodate the necessarily integrated use of many emerging biomedical technologies and assays. In this review, we consider the motivation, design, and implementation of N-of-1 trials in translational nutrition research that are meant to assess the utility of personalized nutritional strategies. We provide a number of example studies, discuss appropriate analytical methods given the complex data they generate and require, and consider how such studies could leverage integration of various biomarker assays and clinical end points. Importantly, we also consider the development of strategies and algorithms for matching nutritional needs to individual biomedical profiles and the issues surrounding them. Finally, we discuss the limitations of personalized nutrition studies, possible extensions of N-of-1 nutritional intervention studies, and areas of future research.

The Role of Multiscale Protein Dynamics in Antigen Presentation and T Lymphocyte Recognition

T lymphocytes are stimulated when they recognize short peptides bound to class I proteins of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein, as peptide-MHC complexes. Due to the diversity in T-cell receptor (TCR) molecules together with both the peptides and MHC proteins they bind to, it has been difficult to design vaccines and treatments based on these interactions. Machine learning has made some progress in trying to predict the immunogenicity of peptide sequences in the context of specific MHC class I alleles but, as such approaches cannot integrate temporal information and lack explanatory power, their scope will always be limited. Here, we advocate a mechanistic description of antigen presentation and TCR activation which is explanatory, predictive, and quantitative, drawing on modeling approaches that collectively span several length and time scales, being capable of furnishing reliable biological descriptions that are difficult for experimentalists to provide. It is a form of multiscale systems biology. We propose the use of chemical rate equations to describe the time evolution of the foreign and host proteins to explain how the original proteins end up being presented on the cell surface as peptide fragments, while we invoke molecular dynamics to describe the key binding processes on the molecular level, including those of peptide-MHC complexes with TCRs which lie at the heart of the immune response. On each level, complementary methods based on machine learning are available, and we discuss the relationship between these divergent approaches. The pursuit of predictive mechanistic modeling approaches requires experimentalists to adapt their work so as to acquire, store, and expose data that can be used to verify and validate such models.

Gene expression profiling in the human alcoholic brain

Long-term alcohol use causes widespread changes in gene expression in the human brain. Aberrant gene expression changes likely contribute to the progression from occasional alcohol use to alcohol use disorder (including alcohol dependence). Transcriptome studies have identified individual gene candidates that are linked to alcohol-dependence phenotypes. The use of bioinformatics techniques to examine expression datasets has provided novel systems-level approaches to transcriptome profiling in human postmortem brain. These analytical advances, along with recent developments in next-generation sequencing technology, have been instrumental in detecting both known and novel coding and non-coding RNAs, alternative splicing events, and cell-type specific changes that may contribute to alcohol-related pathologies. This review offers an integrated perspective on alcohol-responsive transcriptional changes in the human brain underlying the regulatory gene networks that contribute to alcohol dependence. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled "Alcoholism".

Genetic studies of alcohol dependence in the context of the addiction cycle

Family, twin and adoption studies demonstrate clearly that alcohol dependence and alcohol use disorders are phenotypically complex and heritable. The heritability of alcohol use disorders is estimated at approximately 50-60% of the total phenotypic variability. Vulnerability to alcohol use disorders can be due to multiple genetic or environmental factors or their interaction which gives rise to extensive and daunting heterogeneity. This heterogeneity makes it a significant challenge in mapping and identifying the specific genes that influence alcohol use disorders. Genetic linkage and (candidate gene) association studies have been used now for decades to map and characterize genomic loci and genes that underlie the genetic vulnerability to alcohol use disorders. These approaches have been moderately successful in identifying several genes that contribute to the complexity of alcohol use disorders. Recently, genome-wide association studies have become one of the major tools for identifying genes for alcohol use disorders by examining correlations between millions of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms with diagnosis status. Genome-wide association studies are just beginning to uncover novel biology; however, the functional significance of results remains a matter of extensive debate and uncertainty. In this review, we present a select group of genome-wide association studies of alcohol dependence, as one example of a way to generate functional hypotheses, within the addiction cycle framework. This analysis may provide novel directions for validating the functional significance of alcohol dependence candidate genes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled "Alcoholism".