Population-scale drivers of individual arrival times in migratory birds

Cues and the optimal timing of activities under environmental changes

Organisms time activities by using environmental cues to forecast the future availability of important resources. Presently, there is limited understanding of the relationships between cues and optimal timing, and especially about how this relationship will be affected by environmental changes. We develop a general model to explore the relation between a cue and the optimal timing of an important life history activity. The model quantifies the fitness loss for organisms failing to time behaviours optimally. We decompose the immediate change in fitness resulting from environmental changes into a component that is due to changes in the predictive power of the cue and a component that derives from the mismatch of the old response to the cue to the new environmental conditions. Our results show that consequences may range from negative, neutral to positive and are highly dependent on how cue and optimal timing and their relation are specifically affected by environmental changes.

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.

Individuality in bird migration: routes and timing

The exploration of animal migration has entered a new era with individual-based tracking during multiple years. Here, we investigated repeated migratory journeys of a long-distance migrating bird, the marsh harrier Circus aeruginosus, in order to analyse the variation within and between individuals with respect to routes and timing. We found that there was a stronger individual repeatability in time than in space. Thus, the annual timing of migration varied much less between repeated journeys of the same individual than between different individuals, while there was considerable variation in the routes of the same individual on repeated journeys. The overall contrast in repeatability between time and space was unexpected and may be owing to strong endogenous control of timing, while short-term variation in environmental conditions (weather and habitat) might promote route flexibility. The individual variation in migration routes indicates that the birds navigate mainly by other means than detailed route recapitulation based on landmark recognition.

Lynx body size in Norway is related to its main prey (Roe deer) density, climate, and latitude

We studied the effect of various factors on body size variation of the Eurasian lynx in Norway, using data from 374 lynx collected between 1960 and 1976 and whose locality of capture, year of birth, sex, and age were known. Body size of lynx in Norway was mainly affected by sex and age. Female skull size (and by implication body size) was also positively affected by the availability of its main prey (roe deer) and by latitude, and negatively by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Male size was not affected by any of the environmental factors examined. We interpret the effects of NAO and latitude on body size through their effect on the local climate and particularly snow conditions. We suggest that females are more sensitive to environmental factors than males.

Carry-over effects as drivers of fitness differences in animals

1. Carry-over effects occur when processes in one season influence the success of an individual in the following season. This phenomenon has the potential to explain a large amount of variation in individual fitness, but so far has only been described in a limited number of species. This is largely due to difficulties associated with tracking individuals between periods of the annual cycle, but also because of a lack of research specifically designed to examine hypotheses related to carry-over effects. 2. We review the known mechanisms that drive carry-over effects, most notably macronutrient supply, and highlight the types of life histories and ecological situations where we would expect them to most often occur. We also identify a number of other potential mechanisms that require investigation, including micronutrients such as antioxidants. 3. We propose a series of experiments designed to estimate the relative contributions of extrinsic and intrinsic quality effects in the pre-breeding season, which in turn will allow an accurate estimation of the magnitude of carry-over effects. To date this has proven immensely difficult, and we hope that the experimental frameworks described here will stimulate new avenues of research vital to advancing our understanding of how carry-over effects can shape animal life histories. 4. We also explore the potential of state-dependent modelling as a tool for investigating carry-over effects, most notably for its ability to calculate optimal rates of acquisition of a multitude of resources over the course of the annual cycle, and also because it allows us to vary the strength of density-dependent relationships which can alter the magnitude of carry-over effects in either a synergistic or agonistic fashion. 5. In conclusion carry-over effects are likely to be far more widespread than currently indicated, and they are likely to be driven by a multitude of factors including both macro- and micronutrients. For this reason they could feasibly be responsible for a large amount of the observed variation in performance among individuals, and consequently warrant a wealth of new research designed specifically to decompose components of variation in fitness attributes related to processes across and within seasons.

Vegetation influences patch occupancy but not settlement and dispersal decisions in a declining migratory songbird

Territorial clustering within larger, continuous patches of seemingly appropriate habitat could indicate that a species has additional, finer scale habitat requirements. Studying fine-scale (e.g., territory-level) habitat selection using methods that elucidate individual preferences may allow us to identify resources that influence species distributions. We examined breeding territory selection in the sagebrush Brewer’s Sparrow ( Spizella breweri Cassin, 1856) at the northern extent of its range to test for influences on fine-scale habitat selection. We used an information–theoretic approach to evaluate models relating a suite of vegetation characteristics to breeding habitat selection. We employed two methods: (1) assessment of patch occupancy at a territory scale and (2) examination of individual decisions relating to settlement and dispersal. We found that patch occupancy was most consistently predicted by models that included the cover of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) with the greatest likelihood of occupancy at 20%–25% cover. However, assessment of settlement and dispersal decisions did not identify additional fine-scale preferences for other vegetation characteristics. Vegetation cover also did not influence breeding success, indicating that within the vegetation range found in Brewer’s Sparrow territory clusters, there is little benefit in basing individual settlement or dispersal decisions on vegetation cover.

Consistent annual schedules in a migratory shorebird

Many migratory birds start prebreeding moult and premigratory fuelling some months before the breeding season and face severe time constraints, while travelling up to 15,000 km between non-breeding and breeding grounds. Shorebirds typically leave Southern Hemisphere non-breeding areas over a 3-4 week period, but whether they benefit from interannually consistent timing of departure is unknown. Here, I show that individual bar-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa baueri) from New Zealand are highly consistent in their migratory scheduling. Most birds left within the same week each year (between-year repeatability, r, of 0.83) and adult males, which moult into a bright breeding plumage, were also highly repeatable in the extent of their prebreeding moult (r=0.86). This is consistent with the hypothesis that birds have individually optimized migration schedules. Within adult males, but not females, smaller birds tended to migrate earlier than large birds. Whether this reflects differences in size-related migration speed, optimal breeding time at different sites or size-related natural or sexual selection pressures, remains unknown.

Climate change and the optimal arrival of migratory birds

Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e.g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food distribution, the degree of competition for territories and the risk of mortality. In general, the optimal shift in arrival date should never be as extreme as the shift in food peak date. Our results also show that we should expect the high variation of trends in arrival date observed among migratory birds, even if migration and information about climate change were unconstrained.

Why do female migratory birds arrive later than males?

1. In migratory birds males tend to arrive first on breeding grounds, except in sex-role reversed species. The two most common explanations are the rank advantage hypothesis, in which male-male competition for breeding sites drives stronger selection for early arrival in males than females, and the mate opportunity hypothesis, which relies on sexual selection, as early arrival improves prospects of mate acquisition more for males than for females. 2. To date, theoretical work has focused on selection for early arrival within a single sex, usually male. However, if fitness depends on territory quality, selection for early arrival should operate on both sexes. Here we use two independent modelling approaches to explore the evolution of protandry (male-first arrival) and protogyny (female-first arrival) under the rank advantage and mate opportunity hypotheses. 3. The rank advantage hypothesis, when operating alone, fails to produce consistent patterns of protandry, despite our assumption that males must occupy territories before females. This is because an individual of either sex benefits if it out-competes same-sex competitors. Rather than promoting protandry, the rank advantage mechanism can sometimes result in protogyny. Female-female competition is stronger than male-male competition early in the season, if females compete for a resource (territories occupied by males) that is initially less common than the resource of interest to males (unoccupied territories). 4. Our results support the mate opportunity hypothesis as an explanation of why protandry is the norm in migratory systems. Male-biased adult sex ratios and high levels of sperm competition (modelled as extra-pair young: EPY) both produce protandry as a result of sexual selection. Protogyny is only observed in our models with female-biased sex ratios and low EPY production. 5. We also show that the effects of sex ratio biases are much stronger than those of EPY production, explore the evidence for sex ratio biases and extra-pair paternity in migratory species and suggest future research directions.