Predictors of cancer-specific mortality after disease recurrence following radical cystectomy

Development and external validation of nomograms predicting disease-free and cancer-specific survival after radical cystectomy

PURPOSE

To develop two nomograms predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and to externally validate them in multiple series.

METHODS

Prospectively collected data from a single-centre series of 818 consecutive patients who underwent RC and PLND were used to build the nomogram. External validation was performed in 3,173 patients from 7 centres worldwide. Time to recurrence and to cancer-specific death were addressed with univariable and multivariable analyses. Nomograms were built to predict 2-, 5- and 8-year DFS and CSS probabilities. Predictive accuracy was quantified using the concordance index.

RESULTS

Age, pathologic T stage, lymph-node density and extent of PLND were independent predictors of DFS and CSS (p < 0.05). Discrimination accuracies for DFS and CSS at 2, 5 and 8 years were 0.81, 0.8, 0.79 and 0.82, 0.81, 0.8, respectively, with a slight overestimation at calibration plots beyond 24 months. In the external series, predictive accuracies for DFS and CSS at 2, 5 and 8 years were 0.83, 0.82, 0.82 and 0.85, 0.85, 0.83 for European centres; 0.73, 0.72, 0.71 and 0.80, 0.74, 0.68 for African series; 0.76, 0.74, 0.71 and 0.79, 0.76, 0.73 for American series.

CONCLUSIONS

These nomograms developed from a contemporary series are simple clinical tools and provide optimal oncologic outcome prediction in all external cohorts.

Differences in the recurrence pattern after neoadjuvant chemotherapy compared to surgery alone in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer

In patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) confers a survival benefit compared to radical cystectomy (RC) alone. Recurrence is observed in many cases and is the most common cause of death in MIBC patients. However, the rate and pattern of recurrence after NAC in MIBC patients remain unclear. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of 348 consecutive patients who underwent RC and bilateral pelvic node dissection between May 1994 and July 2012. Our study focused on patients with MIBC who had histologically confirmed stage T2-T4a urothelial carcinoma of the bladder without lymph node or distant metastasis. Accordingly, 265 patients were included in this analysis, of whom 130 received NAC and 135 underwent RC alone. Propensity score matching was used to adjust for potential selection biases associated with treatment type. Recurrence was defined as local recurrence and distant metastasis, according to site. Propensity score matching analysis identified 130 matched pairs from the two groups. For the neoadjuvant gemcitabine and carboplatin (GCarbo) and RC alone groups, the 5-year overall survival rates were 89.2 and 51.4 %, respectively (P < 0.0001), and the recurrence-free survival rates were 85.4 and 57.0 %, respectively (P < 0.0001). However, the total number of local recurrences was markedly lower in the neoadjuvant GCarbo group than in the RC alone group. Neoadjuvant GCarbo was associated with improved oncological outcomes and a different recurrence pattern in MIBC patients compared to RC alone.

[Tumor cells in the peripheral blood of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder: detection and impact of circulating]

Circulating tumor cells (CTC) play a crucial role in the natural history of several malignancies and, thus, are the subject of intense research efforts. This review summarizes the most contemporary literature data regarding detection of CTC and their impact on the oncological prognosis of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB). Despite the availability of different methods for CTC detection and isolation in the peripheral blood, the standardized and Food and Drug Administration-approved CellSearch® assay is currently the most commonly used system for CTC detection. The majority of studies did not find any association between presence of CTC and clinicopathologic features. However, CTC have been demonstrated to represent a strong, independent predictor for unfavorable oncological outcomes in UCB. Since the peripheral blood is an easily accessible source, CTC represent a promising biomarker to effectively monitor early disease progression and therapy response in the near future. CTC hold the potential to individualize patient counseling regarding the optimal timing of radical surgery or bladder-sparing treatment as well as multimodal therapies.

Discovery and validation of novel expression signature for postcystectomy recurrence in high-risk bladder cancer

Background

Nearly half of muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients succumb to their disease following cystectomy. Selecting candidates for adjuvant therapy is currently based on clinical parameters with limited predictive power. This study aimed to develop and validate genomic-based signatures that can better identify patients at risk for recurrence than clinical models alone.

Methods

Transcriptome-wide expression profiles were generated using 1.4 million feature-arrays on archival tumors from 225 patients who underwent radical cystectomy and had muscle-invasive and/or node-positive bladder cancer. Genomic (GC) and clinical (CC) classifiers for predicting recurrence were developed on a discovery set (n = 133). Performances of GC, CC, an independent clinical nomogram (IBCNC), and genomic-clinicopathologic classifiers (G-CC, G-IBCNC) were assessed in the discovery and independent validation (n = 66) sets. GC was further validated on four external datasets (n = 341). Discrimination and prognostic abilities of classifiers were compared using area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs). All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

A 15-feature GC was developed on the discovery set with area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 in the validation set. This was higher than individual clinical variables, IBCNC (AUC = 0.73), and comparable to CC (AUC = 0.78). Performance was improved upon combining GC with clinical nomograms (G-IBCNC, AUC = 0.82; G-CC, AUC = 0.86). G-CC high-risk patients had elevated recurrence probabilities (P < .001), with GC being the best predictor by multivariable analysis (P = .005). Genomic-clinicopathologic classifiers outperformed clinical nomograms by decision curve and reclassification analyses. GC performed the best in validation compared with seven prior signatures. GC markers remained prognostic across four independent datasets.

Conclusions

The validated genomic-based classifiers outperform clinical models for predicting postcystectomy bladder cancer recurrence. This may be used to better identify patients who need more aggressive management.

High expression of GEM and EDNRA is associated with metastasis and poor outcome in patients with advanced bladder cancer

Background

The standard treatment for non-metastatic muscle-invasive bladder cancer (stages T2–T4a) is radical cystectomy with lymphadenectomy. However, patients undergoing cystectomy show metastatic spread in 25% of cases and these patients will have limited benefit from surgery. Identification of patients with high risk of lymph node metastasis will help select patients that may benefit from neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant chemotherapy.

Methods

RNA was procured by laser micro dissection of primary bladder tumors and corresponding lymph node metastases for Affymetrix U133 Plus 2.0 Gene Chip expression profiling. A publically available dataset was used for identification of the best candidate markers, and these were validated using immunohistochemistry in an independent patient cohort of 368 patients.

Results

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis showed significant enrichment for e.g. metastatic signatures in the metastasizing tumors, and a set of 12 genes significantly associated with lymph node metastasis was identified. Tumors did not cluster according to their metastatic ability when analyzing gene expression profiles using hierarchical cluster analysis. However, half (6/12) of the primary tumor clustered together with matching lymph node metastases, indicating a large degree of intra-patient similarity in these patients. Immunohistochemical analysis of 368 tumors from cystectomized patients showed high expression of GEM (P = 0.033; HR = 1.46) and EDNRA (P = 0.046; HR = 1.60) was significantly associated with decreased cancer-specific survival.

Conclusions

GEM and EDNRA were identified as promising prognostic markers for patients with advanced bladder cancer. The clinical relevance of GEM and EDNRA should be evaluated in independent prospective studies.

Robotic-assisted radical cystectomy with extracorporeal urinary diversion for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder: analysis of complications and oncologic outcomes in 175 patients with a median follow-up of 3 years

OBJECTIVE

To report oncologic outcomes and complications after robotic-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From March 2004 to August 2011, 175 consecutive patients underwent RARC with extracorporeal urinary diversion at our institution by a single surgeon. The study design was prospective. Perioperative parameters and postoperative complications were prospectively collected using the modified Clavien system. Recurrence-free survival and cancer-specific survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

A total of 145 men and 30 women with a median age of 73 years and a median body mass index of 27 kg/m(2) underwent RARC. Four patients (2.3%) required conversion to open surgery because of difficulty to progress. One hundred nine patients (62%) underwent a transcutaneous ileal conduit, 40 patients (23%) an orthotopic neobladder, and 26 (15%) a continent cutaneous conduit. The median operating time was 360 minutes (interquartile range [IQR]: 300-420). The median estimated blood loss was 400 mL (IQR: 250-612), with a transfusion rate of 17.0%. The median postoperative length of stay was 7.0 days (IQR: 5.2-10). Early (<30 days) and late surgery-related complications (30-90 days) occurred in 74 (42%) and 59 (34%) patients, respectively. The perioperative mortality rate was 2.8%. The positive soft tissue surgical margins rate was 5%. The median number of lymph nodes removed was 19 (IQR: 12-28). The median follow-up was 37 months (IQR: 21.5-53.5). Actuarial recurrence-free survival and cancer-specific survival at 2, 3, and 5 years after RARC were 67%, 63%, 63% and 73%, 68%, 66%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

RARC achieved mid-term oncologic efficacy. Moreover, the complication rates were comparable with open radical cystectomy series.

Oncologic outcome after laparoscopic radical cystectomy without neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy with a median follow-up of 32 months

INTRODUCTION

We report the oncological outcome after laparoscopic radical cystectomy (LRC) and standard laparoscopic pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) without neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy in the treatment of bladder cancer with a median follow-up of 32 months.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From September 2006 to January 2011, 40 consecutive patients underwent an LRC and standard laparoscopic PLND, and were included in this prospective observational cohort study. No patient received neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy. Demographic, perioperative, complication, histopathologic and survival data were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

The 2002 TNM staging for the tumors were: pT0, 4 cases; pTis, 5 cases; pT1, 4 cases; pT2, 7 cases; pT3, 13 cases; pT4, 7 cases. Positive surgical margins were reported in 3 patients (7.5%) and lymph node involvement in 9 patients (23.7%). No patient was lost to follow-up. The overall, cancer-specific and recurrence-free survival rates were 53, 73 and 70% with a median follow-up of 32 months. Eleven patients (27.5%) died of metastatic disease or local recurrence. Nonorgan-confined disease (≥pT3) and primary lymph node involvement (pN+) were significantly associated with worse overall, cancer-specific and recurrence-free survival rates.

CONCLUSION

We report acceptable mid-term and promising long-term oncological outcome after LRC and standard laparoscopic PLND without neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy.

Radical cystectomy for bladder cancer: oncologic outcome in 271 Chinese patients

Few large scale studies have reported the oncologic outcome of radical cystectomy for treating bladder cancer in China; hence, we lack long-term prognostic information. The aim of the current study was to determine the survival rate and prognostic factors of patients who underwent radical cystectomy for bladder cancer in a Chinese medical center. We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathologic data from 271 bladder cancer patients who underwent radical cystectomy between 2000 and 2011. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic predictors for this cohort. Median follow-up was 31.7 months (range, 0.2–139.1 months). Thirty-day mortality was (1.4%). The 5-year recurrence-free survival, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival rates were 61.6%, 72.9%, and 68.0%, respectively. The 5-year CSS rates of patients with T1–T4 disease were 90.7%, 85.0%, 51.0%, and 18.0%, respectively. Patients with organ-confined disease had a higher 5-year CSS rate than those with extravesical disease (81.4% vs. 34.9%, P < 0.001). For the 38 patients (14%) with lymph node involvement, the 5-year CSS rate was 27.7%—significantly lower than that of patients without lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). The 5-year CSS rate was much higher in patients with low grade tumor than in those with high grade tumor (98.1% vs. 68.1%, P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression showed that patient age (hazard ratio, 2.045; P = 0.013) and T category (hazard ratio, 2.213; P < 0.001) were independent predictors for CSS. These results suggest that radical cystectomy is a safe and effective method for treating bladder cancer in Chinese patients. Old age and high T category were associated with poor prognosis in bladder cancer patients who underwent radical cystectomy.

Time from prior chemotherapy enhances prognostic risk grouping in the second-line setting of advanced urothelial carcinoma: a retrospective analysis of pooled, prospective phase 2 trials

BACKGROUND

Outcomes for patients in the second-line setting of advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC) are dismal. The recognized prognostic factors in this context are Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) >0, hemoglobin level (Hb) <10 g/dl, and liver metastasis (LM).

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this retrospective study of prospective trials was to investigate the prognostic value of time from prior chemotherapy (TFPC) independent of known prognostic factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from patients from seven prospective trials with available baseline TFPC, Hb, PS, and LM values were used for retrospective analysis (n=570). External validation was conducted in a second-line phase 3 trial comparing best supportive care (BSC) versus vinflunine plus BSC (n=352).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association of factors, with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) being the respective primary and secondary outcome measures.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

ECOG-PS >0, LM, Hb <10 g/dl, and shorter TFPC were significant prognostic factors for OS and PFS on multivariable analysis. Patients with zero, one, two, and three to four factors demonstrated median OS of 12.2, 6.7, 5.1, and 3.0 mo, respectively (concordance statistic=0.638). Setting of prior chemotherapy (metastatic disease vs perioperative) and prior platinum agent (cisplatin or carboplatin) were not prognostic factors. External validation demonstrated a significant association of TFPC with PFS on univariable and most multivariable analyses, and with OS on univariable analyses. Limitations of retrospective analyses are applicable.

CONCLUSIONS

Shorter TFPC enhances prognostic classification independent of ECOG-PS >0, Hb <10 g/dl, and LM in the setting of second-line therapy for advanced UC. These data may facilitate drug development and interpretation of trials.