A matrix risk model for the prediction of rapid radiographic progression in patients with rheumatoid arthritis receiving different dynamic treatment strategies: post hoc analyses from the BeSt study

Predictors of disease activity and structural progression after treatment with adalimumab plus methotrexate or continued methotrexate monotherapy in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis and suboptimal response to methotrexate

Objectives

Methotrexate is considered to be first-line therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, a substantial proportion of treated patients do not achieve the desired goals of therapy. This analysis aimed to identify predictors of insufficient response to methotrexate in patients with early RA.

Methods

The Optimal Protocol for Treatment Initiation with Methotrexate and Adalimumab (OPTIMA) and PREMIER studies in patients with RA for <1 and <3 years, respectively, examined the efficacy of methotrexate and adalimumab in methotrexate-naive patients. This post hoc analysis included patients for whom initial methotrexate monotherapy was not successful after 6 months. Candidate predictors of insufficient response and clinically relevant radiographic progression (CRRP) included demographics, baseline disease characteristics and time-averaged disease variables over a 12-week interval. In OPTIMA, adalimumab was added to therapy after insufficient treatment response; in PREMIER, initial methotrexate therapy was continued; clinical, functional and radiologic outcomes were assessed after 1 year.

Results

Baseline 28-joint Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (DAS28(CRP)) and time-averaged DAS28(CRP) over 4, 8 and 12 weeks were the strongest predictors of insufficient response to methotrexate and CRRP. Addition of adalimumab to methotrexate therapy was associated with better clinical, functional and radiographic outcomes after 1 year compared with continuing on methotrexate monotherapy.

Conclusions

In patients with early RA, baseline disease characteristics and early disease activity can predict response to methotrexate treatment and radiographic progression at 6 months. The addition of adalimumab at 6 months after methotrexate failure is associated with improved outcomes. These results support treatment-to-target strategies and timely adaptation of therapy in patients with early RA.

Trial registration number

NCT00420927, NCT00195663; Post-results.

Do Poor Prognostic Factors in Rheumatoid Arthritis Affect Treatment Choices and Outcomes? Analysis of a US Rheumatoid Arthritis Registry

OBJECTIVE

To characterize patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) by number of poor prognostic factors (PPF: functional limitation, extraarticular disease, seropositivity, erosions) and evaluate treatment acceleration, clinical outcomes, and work status over 12 months by number of PPF.

METHODS

Using the Corrona RA registry (January 2005-December 2015), biologic-naive patients with diagnosed RA having 12-month (± 3 mos) followup were identified and categorized by PPF (0-1, 2, ≥ 3). Changes in medication, Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), and work status (baseline-12 mos) were evaluated using linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

There were 3458 patients who met the selection criteria: 1489 (43.1%), 1214 (35.1%), and 755 (21.8%) had 0-1, 2, or ≥ 3 PPF, respectively. At baseline, patients with ≥ 3 PPF were older, and had longer RA duration and higher CDAI versus those with 0-1 PPF. In 0-1, 2, and ≥ 3 PPF groups, respectively, 20.9%, 23.2%, and 26.5% of patients received ≥ 1 biologic (p = 0.011). Biologic/targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (tsDMARD) use was similar in patients with/without PPF (p = 0.57). After adjusting for baseline CDAI, mean (standard error) change in CDAI was -4.95 (0.24), -4.53 (0.27), and -2.52 (0.34) for 0-1, 2, and ≥ 3 PPF groups, respectively. More patients were working at baseline but not at 12-month followup in 2 (13.9%) and ≥ 3 (12.5%) versus 0-1 (7.3%) PPF group.

CONCLUSION

Despite high disease activity and worse clinical outcomes, number of PPF did not significantly predict biologic/tsDMARD use. This may warrant reconsideration of the importance of PPF in treat-to-target approaches.

Clinical and radiographic course of early undifferentiated arthritis under treatment is not dependent on the number of joints with erosions at diagnosis: results from the Swiss prospective observational cohort

Objective

To analyse whether early arthritis patients who do not fulfil the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism (ACR/EULAR) 2010 classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a different course of the disease dependent on whether they can or cannot be classified as RA because of radiographic disease (EULAR task force) at diagnosis.

Methods

For this observational study within the Swiss RA cohort SCQM, we included patients with early undifferentiated arthritis (disease duration ≤1 year), who had not received any previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria negative patients were separated into two groups (radiographic vs non-radiographic arthritis) depending on whether or not they had radiographic changes defined as erosive disease by a EULAR task force (≥3 joints with erosions). The primary outcome measure was the radiographic progression detected employing the Ratingen erosion score. Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) and DAS-28 were used as secondary outcome measures. The average observation period was 4 years.

Results

A total of 592 patients were analysed. 240 were not classifiable as RA by application of the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria at baseline. In 57 patients, radiographs at the first visit were not available. 133 patients had radiographic arthritis and 50 non-radiographic arthritis. Treatment was initiated in all patients with DMARDs, mostly methotrexate. No differences in DAS-28 and HAQ scores were found during follow-up. The average erosion scores were higher among patients with initially radiographic arthritis throughout the study. The progression of erosion scores over time, however, was higher in patients with initially non-radiographic arthritis with less subsequent radiological progression (3.3 erosions/year vs 0.4, respectively, p<0.0001).

Conclusions

The clinical and radiographic course of early undifferentiated arthritis under treatment was not dependent on the presence of erosions in three or more joints (ie, the definition of radiographic disease by the EULAR task force) at diagnosis in our cohort.

Effect of treat-to-target strategies on bone erosion progression in early rheumatoid arthritis: An HR-pQCT study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the efficacy of two tight-control treatment strategies aimed at simplified disease activity score [SDAI] remission (SDAI ≤ 3.3) compared to DAS28 remission (DAS28 < 2.6) on progression of bone erosions in early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) patients using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT).

METHODS

This was an open-label study in which 80 early RA patients were randomized to receive 1-year of tight-control treatment. Group 1 (n = 37) aimed at SDAI ≤ 3.3 and group 2 (n = 43) aimed at DAS28-CRP < 2.6. The number and size of bone erosions, as well as the bone mineral density (BMD) surrounding bone erosion at the second metacarpophalangeal joint (MCP2), were measured at baseline and 12 months.

RESULTS

After 12 months, images were analyzed in 63 patients. Changes in clinical parameters, number and size of bone erosions as well as the BMD surrounding bone erosion between the two treatment groups were similar. Therefore, a post-hoc analysis including all 63 patients was performed to elucidate the independent predictors of erosion progression and repair. Multivariate analysis revealed that not achieving sustained SDAI remission at month 6, 9 and 12 (p = 0.034) and rheumatoid factor >16U (p = 0.021) were independent predictors associated with an increase in erosion volume. Logistic regression analysis showed that achieving sustained SDAI remission (p = 0.043) was associated with partial erosion repair.

CONCLUSIONS

Although more stringent treatment target did not notably affect clinical treatment outcome and erosion progression at 1 year, achieving sustained SDAI remission was found to be associated with partial erosion repair.

Smoking, body mass index, disease activity, and the risk of rapid radiographic progression in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND

Identification of risk factors for rapid joint destruction in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can be helpful for optimizing treatment, and improving our understanding of destructive arthritis and its mechanisms. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between early RA patient characteristics and subsequent rapid radiographic progression (RRP).

METHODS

An inception cohort of patients with early RA (symptom duration < 12 months), recruited during 1995-2005 from a defined area (Malmö, Sweden), was investigated. Radiographs of the hands and feet were scored in chronological order according to the modified Sharp-van der Heijde score (SHS), by a trained reader. RRP was defined as an increase of ≥ 5 points in SHS per year.

RESULTS

Two hundred and thirty-three patients were included. Radiographs were available from 216 patients at baseline, 206 patients at 1 year, and 171 patients at 5 years. Thirty-six patients (22%) had RRP up to 5 years. In logistic regression models, rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptides (anti-CCP), and increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) or C-reactive protein (CRP) at baseline, predicted RRP over 5 years. Patients identified as overweight or obese had a significantly reduced risk of RRP up to 5 years (odds ratio (OR) 0.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.63; adjusted for RF, baseline erosions, and ESR). Similar point estimates were obtained when stratifying for antibody status, and in models adjusted for smoking. A history of ever smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of RRP up to 5 years, independent of body mass index (BMI) (OR 3.17; 95% CI 1.22-8.28; adjusted for BMI). At the 1-year follow-up, erosive changes, Disease Activity Score of 28 joints, Health Assessment Questionnaire, swollen joint count, and patient's global assessment of disease activity and pain were also significantly associated with RRP up to 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of smoking, presence of RF and/or anti-CCP and early erosions, high initial disease activity and active disease at 1 year, all increase the risk of RRP. Patients with a high BMI may have a reduced risk of severe joint damage. This pattern was not explained by differences in disease activity or antibody status. The results of this study suggest independent effects of smoking and BMI on the risk of RRP.

Interleukin-6 and IgA-rheumatoid factor are crucial for baseline erosiveness, and anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies for radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis treated according to a treat-to-target strategy

OBJECTIVES

To define baseline clinical and immunological characteristics [anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPAs), immunoglobulin M (IgM)- and IgA-rheumatoid factor (RF), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels] involved in determining baseline erosiveness, outcome, and radiographic progression among seropositive and seronegative early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) patients.

METHOD

The 408 ERA patients enrolled in the study were monitored every 3 months according to the treat-to-target strategy. At baseline and after 12 months, hand and foot radiographs were evaluated using the Sharp/van der Heijde erosion score.

RESULTS

At diagnosis, seronegative patients were older and had higher Disease Activity Scores (DASs) than seropositive patients. A higher risk of erosiveness at baseline was conferred by IgA-RF positivity and IL-6 plasma levels ≥7.6 pg/mL, particularly when simultaneously present. In multivariate analysis, disease duration and IL-6 plasma levels ≥7.6 pg/mL arose as independent variables associated with presence of erosions at onset. Radiographic progression at 1 year follow-up, which occurred in 11.1% of ERA patients, was predicted by ACPA positivity, together with higher age at diagnosis. Despite similar percentages of good European League Against Rheumatism response, DAS and Boolean remission being observed over time among seropositive and seronegative patients and between erosive and non-erosive subjects, ERA patients who were erosive at onset, IgA-RF seropositive, and simultaneously having high baseline IL-6 plasma levels (≥7.6 pg/mL) were treated to a greater extent with tumour necrosis factor blockers after 12 months.

CONCLUSION

IgA-RF positivity and IL-6 plasma levels are crucial for baseline erosiveness, while ACPA positivity represents the strongest risk factor for developing radiographic progression in ERA.

Dextromethorphan Exhibits Anti-inflammatory and Immunomodulatory Effects in a Murine Model of Collagen-Induced Arthritis and in Human Rheumatoid Arthritis

Dextromethorphan (d-3-methoxy-17-methylmorphinan, DXM) is a commonly used antitussive with a favorable safety profile. Previous studies have demonstrated that DXM has anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory properties; however, the effect of DXM in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) remains unknown. Herein, we found that DXM treatment attenuated arthritis severity and proinflammatory cytokine expression levels, including TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-17A, in paw tissues of CIA mice. DXM treatment also reduced serum TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-17A levels of CIA mice and patients with RA. DXM further decreased the production of anti-CII IgG, IFN-γ, and IL-17A in collagen-reactive CD4⁺ T cells extracted from the lymph nodes of CIA mice. In vitro incubation of bone marrow–derived dendritic cells with DXM limited CD4⁺ T-cell proliferation and inflammatory cytokine secretion. In conclusion, our results showed that DXM attenuated arthritis symptoms in CIA mice and significantly reduced proinflammatory cytokines in patients with RA, suggesting that it can be used as an anti-arthritic agent.

Personalized medicine in rheumatology: the paradigm of serum autoantibodies

The sequencing of the human genome is now well recognized as the starting point of personalized medicine. Nonetheless, everyone is unique and can develop different phenotypes of the same disease, despite identical genotypes, as well illustrated by discordant monozygotic twins. To recognize these differences, one of the easiest and most familiar examples of biomarkers capable of identifying and predicting the outcome of patients is represented by serum autoantibodies. In this review, we will describe the concept of personalized medicine and discuss the predictive, prognostic and preventive role of antinuclear antibodies (ANA), anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA), rare autoantibodies and anti-drug antibodies (ADA), to evaluate how these can help to identify different disease immune phenotypes and to choose the best option for treating and monitoring rheumatic patients in everyday practice. The importance of ANA resides in the prediction of clinical manifestations in systemic sclerosis and systemic lupus erythematosus and their association with malignancies. ACPA have a predictive role in rheumatoid arthritis, they are associated with the development of a more aggressive disease, extra-articular manifestations and premature mortality in RA patients; moreover, they are capable of predicting therapeutic response. Rare autoantibodies are associated with different disease manifestations and also with a greater incidence of cancer. The determination of ADA levels may be useful in patients where the clinical efficacy of TNF-α inhibitor has dropped, for the assessment of a right management. The resulting scenario supports serum autoantibodies as the cornerstone of personalized medicine in autoimmune diseases.

Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies are the strongest predictor of clinically relevant radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis patients achieving remission or low disease activity: A post hoc analysis of a nationwide cohort in Japan

Objectives

To determine prognostic factors of clinically relevant radiographic progression (CRRP) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) achieving remission or low disease activity (LDA) in clinical practice.

Methods

Using data from a nationwide, multicenter, prospective study in Japan, we evaluated 198 biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD)-naïve RA patients who were in remission or had LDA at study entry after being treated with conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs). CRRP was defined as the yearly progression of modified total Sharp score (mTSS) >3.0 U. We performed a multiple logistic regression analysis to explore the factors to predict CRRP at 1 year. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to estimate the performance of relevant variables for predicting CRRP.

Results

The mean Disease Activity Score in 28 joints-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) was 2.32 ± 0.58 at study entry. During the 1-year observation, remission or LDA persisted in 72% of the patients. CRRP was observed in 7.6% of the patients. The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent variables to predict the development of CRRP were: anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) positivity at baseline (OR = 15.2, 95%CI 2.64–299), time-integrated DAS28-ESR during the 1 year post-baseline (7.85-unit increase, OR = 1.83, 95%CI 1.03–3.45), and the mTSS at baseline (13-unit increase, OR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.06–1.42).

Conclusions

ACPA positivity was the strongest independent predictor of CRRP in patients with RA in remission or LDA. Physicians should recognize ACPA as a poor-prognosis factor regarding the radiographic outcome of RA, even among patients showing a clinically favorable response to DMARDs.

Can Synovial Pathobiology Integrate with Current Clinical and Imaging Prediction Models to Achieve Personalized Health Care in Rheumatoid Arthritis?

Although great progress has been made in the past decade toward understanding the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), clinicians remain some distance from a goal of personalized health care. The capacity to diagnose RA early, predict prognosis, and moreover predict response to biologic therapies has been a research focus for many years. How currently available clinical prediction models can facilitate such goals is reviewed in this article. In addition, the role of current imaging techniques in this regard is also discussed. Finally, the authors review the current literature regarding synovial biomarkers and consider whether integration of synovial pathobiology into clinical prediction algorithms may enhance their predictive value.

Poor prognostic factors guiding treatment decisions in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a review of data from randomized clinical trials and cohort studies

Prognostic factors are used for treatment decisions in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). High disease activity, the early presence of erosions, and autoantibody positivity are the most frequently used poor prognostic factors but other features, such as functional disability, extraarticular disease, or multibiomarkers, are also assessed. Prognostic factors are incorporated in current treatment recommendations for the management of RA and are used as inclusion criteria in randomized controlled trials. They are defined heterogeneously and the relevance of a single or combined presence of poor prognostic factors remains unclear. This review summarizes the current definitions of poor prognostic factors and their use in clinical research. Perspectives on future research are also outlined.

EULAR recommendations for the management of rheumatoid arthritis with synthetic and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: 2016 update

Recent insights in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) necessitated updating the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) RA management recommendations. A large international Task Force based decisions on evidence from 3 systematic literature reviews, developing 4 overarching principles and 12 recommendations (vs 3 and 14, respectively, in 2013). The recommendations address conventional synthetic (cs) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) (methotrexate (MTX), leflunomide, sulfasalazine); glucocorticoids (GC); biological (b) DMARDs (tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitors (adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, infliximab), abatacept, rituximab, tocilizumab, clazakizumab, sarilumab and sirukumab and biosimilar (bs) DMARDs) and targeted synthetic (ts) DMARDs (Janus kinase (Jak) inhibitors tofacitinib, baricitinib). Monotherapy, combination therapy, treatment strategies (treat-to-target) and the targets of sustained clinical remission (as defined by the American College of Rheumatology-(ACR)-EULAR Boolean or index criteria) or low disease activity are discussed. Cost aspects were taken into consideration. As first strategy, the Task Force recommends MTX (rapid escalation to 25 mg/week) plus short-term GC, aiming at >50% improvement within 3 and target attainment within 6 months. If this fails stratification is recommended. Without unfavourable prognostic markers, switching to-or adding-another csDMARDs (plus short-term GC) is suggested. In the presence of unfavourable prognostic markers (autoantibodies, high disease activity, early erosions, failure of 2 csDMARDs), any bDMARD (current practice) or Jak-inhibitor should be added to the csDMARD. If this fails, any other bDMARD or tsDMARD is recommended. If a patient is in sustained remission, bDMARDs can be tapered. For each recommendation, levels of evidence and Task Force agreement are provided, both mostly very high. These recommendations intend informing rheumatologists, patients, national rheumatology societies, hospital officials, social security agencies and regulators about EULAR's most recent consensus on the management of RA, aimed at attaining best outcomes with current therapies.

Longitudinal study of clinical prognostic factors in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: the PREDICT study

AIM

To assess the association between baseline clinical prognostic factors and subsequent Disease Activity Score of 28 joints (DAS28) remission in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

Data were collected using point of care clinical software from participating rheumatology centres. Patients aged 18 years or over whose date of clinical onset of RA was within the previous 12-24 months, who had at least 6 months of follow-up data and a DAS28-ESR (erythrocyte sedimentation rate) score recorded between 12 and 24 months from first being seen for RA were included. Data collected included baseline demographics, mode of disease onset, pattern of joint involvement at onset, smoking status, DAS28, rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA), time from symptom onset to presentation and disease activity at baseline. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression of DAS28-ESR remission between 12 and 24 months after first assessment were performed.

RESULTS

Data from 1017 patients were analyzed: 70% female; mean age 60 years (SD: 14.7); 70% RF-positive, 58% ACPA-positive. The strongest age and sex adjusted baseline predictors of DAS28-ESR remission at 12-24 months were remission at baseline (odds ratio [OR]: 4.49, 95% CI: 2.17-9.29, P < 0.001), being male (OR: 2.42, 95% CI: 1.46-4.01, P < 0.001), abstaining from alcohol (P < 0.001) and being lower weight (OR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-1.00, P = 0.015). There was no statistically significant association between joint onset patterns, mode of onset, RF, ACPA or smoking status.

CONCLUSION

In this observational study, patients with early RA at risk of not achieving remission include those with high disease activity at baseline, women, those who drink alcohol and those with higher body weight.

Is radiographic progression in modern rheumatoid arthritis trials still a robust outcome? Experience from tofacitinib clinical trials

BACKGROUND

The detection of statistically significant reductions in radiographic progression during clinical studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has become increasingly difficult over the past decade due to early-escape study designs and declining rates of progression in control-group patients. We investigated the impact of extremes of radiographic data (outliers) and baseline prognostic factors on detection of treatment effects, to provide guidance on future analysis of joint structural data in RA clinical trials.

METHODS

Data were from two, phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of tofacitinib in adult patients with moderate to severe RA: ORAL Scan (NCT00847613) and ORAL Start (NCT01039688). These studies detected significant reductions in radiographic progression with tofacitinib 10 mg twice daily (BID) plus background methotrexate (ORAL Scan), and with tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg BID as monotherapy (ORAL Start). We evaluated mean changes from baseline in van der Heijde modified total Sharp score (mTSS) at month 6 and month 12, using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). A trimmed analysis was used to deal with extremes of data. The impact of baseline prognostic factors on radiographic progression was evaluated using ANCOVA to analyze the mean change from baseline in mTSS for each factor in turn.

RESULTS

The analysis included data from 720 patients from ORAL Scan and 880 patients from ORAL Start. Trimmed analyses were unbiased for the true mean estimate and enabled us to remove the effect of influential extreme observations in the data set. Almost all patients had at least one poor prognostic factor at baseline (e.g., high level of disease activity, or positive for rheumatoid factor). The strongest predictor of treatment effect was the severity of radiographic damage at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

A trimmed analysis can establish whether any significant inhibition of structural damage is being driven by extremes of data, and should be one of the sensitivity analyses of choice for structural data in RA clinical trials. Furthermore, analysis of radiographic data based on baseline prognostic factors may reveal increased treatment effects. Application of these methods to analysis of radiographic data from clinical trials in patients with RA, allows a more complete interpretation of data.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00847613 (registered 17 February 2009) and NCT01039688 (registered 23 December 2009).

Performance of matrices developed to identify patients with early rheumatoid arthritis with rapid radiographic progression despite methotrexate therapy: an external validation study based on the ESPOIR cohort data

INTRODUCTION

Use of prediction matrices of risk or rapid radiographic progression (RRP) for early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in clinical practice could help to better rationalise the first line of treatment. Before use, they must be validated in populations that have not participated in their construction. The main objective is to use the ESPOIR cohort to validate the performance of 3 matrices (ASPIRE, BEST and SONORA) to predict patients at high risk of RRP at 1 year of disease despite initial treatment with methotrexate (MTX).

METHODS

We selected from the ESPOIR cohort 370 patients receiving MTX or leflunomide (LEF) for ≥3 months within the first year of follow-up. Patients were assessed clinically every 6 months, and structural damage progression seen on radiography was measured by the van der Heijde-modified Sharp score (vSHS) at 1 year. RRP was defined as an increase in the vSHS≥5 points during the first year.

RESULTS

At 1 year, the mean vSHS score was 1.7±5.0 and 46 patients had RRP. The ASPIRE matrix had only moderate validity in the ESPOIR population, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) <0.7. The AUC for the BEST and SONORA matrices were 0.73 and 0.76. Presence of rheumatoid factor (RF)-or anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPAs) and initial structural damage were always predictive of RRP at 1 year. Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) and C reactive protein (ASPIRE threshold) were not associated with RRP.

CONCLUSIONS

Matrices to identify patients at risk of RRP tested in the ESPOIR cohort seem to perform moderately. There is no matrix that shows clearly superior performance.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Bone Edema at Enrollment Predicts Rapid Radiographic Progression in Patients with Early RA: Results from the Nagasaki University Early Arthritis Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To clarify whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) bone edema predicts the development of rapid radiographic progression (RRP) in the Nagasaki University Early Arthritis Cohort of patients with early-stage rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

Patients with early-stage RA (n = 76) were enrolled and underwent 1.5-T MRI of both wrists and finger joints. Synovitis, bone edema, and bone erosion were evaluated using the Rheumatoid Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring (RAMRIS). RRP was defined as an annual increment > 3 at 1 year by the Genant-modified Sharp score of plain radiographs. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the risk factors for RRP.

RESULTS

Median disease duration at enrollment was 3 months. RRP was found in 12 of the 76 patients at 1 year. A univariate analysis revealed that matrix metalloprotease-3, RAMRIS bone edema score, and RAMRIS bone erosion score were associated with RRP. Multivariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that the RAMRIS bone edema score at enrollment (5-point increase, OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.32-3.59, p = 0.002) was the only independent predictor of the development of RRP at 1 year. A receiver-operating characteristic analysis identified the best cutoff value for RAMRIS bone edema score as 5. RRP was significantly rare among the patients with a RAMRIS bone edema score < 5 at enrollment (2 from 50 patients).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that MRI bone edema is closely associated with the development of RRP in patients with early-stage RA. Physicians should carefully control the disease activity when MRI bone edema is observed in patients with early RA.

The association between anti-carbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies and radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis: a study exploring replication and the added value to ACPA and rheumatoid factor

Objective

Anti-carbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies are reported to associate with more radiographic progression within the total rheumatoid arthritis (RA) population and anti-citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA)-negative subgroup. We explored the association of anti-CarP with radiographic progression in RA and aimed to replicate the association and evaluate the added value of anti-CarP antibodies in relation to ACPA and rheumatoid factor (RF).

Methods

576 Swedish and 628 Dutch patients with RA (2394 and 3247 sets of radiographs, respectively) were longitudinally studied. Replication was restricted to the Swedish patients. In both cohorts, the association of anti-CarP with radiographic progression was determined in strata of patients with similar ACPA and RF status; results of both cohorts were combined in fixed-effect meta-analyses. The net percentage of patients for whom the radiographic progression in 5 years was additionally correctly classified when adding anti-CarP to a model including ACPA and RF was evaluated.

Results

Anti-CarP associated with radiographic progression in the total Swedish RA population (beta=1.11 per year, p=8.75×10−13) and in the ACPA-negative subgroup (beta=1.14 per year, p=0.034). Anti-CarP associated with more radiographic progression in the strata of ACPA-positive/RF-negative, ACPA-negative/RF-positive and ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients with RA (respective p values 0.014, 0.019 and 0.0056). A model including ACPA and RF correctly classified 54% and 57% of the patients; adding anti-CarP to this model did not increase these percentages (54% and 56% were correctly classified).

Conclusions

Anti-CarP antibodies associated with more severe radiographic progression in the total and ACPA-negative RA population. Anti-CarP-positivity had a statistically significant additive value to ACPA and RF, but did not improve correct classification of patients.

Prognostic Factors Toward Clinically Relevant Radiographic Progression in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Clinical Practice: A Japanese Multicenter, Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study for Achieving a Treat-to-Target Strategy

To determine prognostic factors of clinically relevant radiographic progression (CRRP) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in clinical practice.We performed a multicenter prospective study in Japan of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD)-naive RA patients with moderate to high disease activity treated with conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) at study entry. We longitudinally observed 408 patients for 1 year and assessed disease activity every 3 months. CRRP was defined as yearly progression of modified total Sharp score (mTSS) > 3.0 U. We also divided the cohort into 2 groups based on disease duration (<3 vs ≥3 years) and performed a subgroup analysis.CRRP was found in 10.3% of the patients. A multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent variables to predict the development of CRRP were: CRP at baseline (0.30 mg/dL increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.11), time-integrated Disease Activity Score in 28 joints-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) during the 1 year postbaseline (12.4-unit increase, 95%CI 1.17-2.59), RA typical erosion at baseline (95%CI 1.56-21.1), and the introduction of bDMARDs (95%CI 0.06-0.38). The subgroup analysis revealed that time-integrated DAS28-ESR is not a predictor whereas the introduction of bDMARDs is a significant protective factor for CRRP in RA patients with disease duration <3 years.We identified factors that could be used to predict the development of CRRP in RA patients treated with DMARDs. These variables appear to be different based on the RA patients' disease durations.

Genetic data: The new challenge of personalized medicine, insights for rheumatoid arthritis patients

Rapid advances in genotyping technology, analytical methods, and the establishment of large cohorts for population genetic studies have resulted in a large new body of information about the genetic basis of human rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Improved understanding of the root pathogenesis of the disease holds the promise of improved diagnostic and prognostic tools based upon this information. In this review, we summarize the nature of new genetic findings in human RA, including susceptibility loci and gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, as well as genetic loci associated with sub-groups of patients and those associated with response to therapy. Possible uses of these data are discussed, such as prediction of disease risk as well as personalized therapy and prediction of therapeutic response and risk of adverse events. While these applications are largely not refined to the point of clinical utility in RA, it seems likely that multi-parameter datasets including genetic, clinical, and biomarker data will be employed in the future care of RA patients.

Targeting Low Disease Activity in Elderly-Onset Rheumatoid Arthritis: Current and Future Roles of Biological Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs

Elderly rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is classified into two clinical subsets, elderly-onset RA (EORA) and younger-onset elderly RA. With the improvement of life expectancy in the general population and advent of the super-aging society, the number of patients with EORA is anticipated to increase. Both large and small joints are affected initially at onset, and individuals with early EORA have higher scores of disease activity and levels of acute-phase reactants than those with early younger-onset RA. EORA is a progressive disease similar to younger-onset RA. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are equally or slightly less effective in elderly patients than in younger patients with RA, and disease duration may have a greater impact on disease outcomes than age. Evidence of non-TNF biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug use in EORA is limited. TNF inhibitors may not increase the risk for infection in elderly patients any more than methotrexate; however, increasing age is an independent and strong risk factor for serious infections in patients with RA. Treatment choice in patients with EORA is strongly influenced by comorbidities, especially cardiovascular disease, chronic lung disease, and frailty. To prevent progression to irreversible geriatric syndromes, non-frail patients with EORA, who are aging successfully should undergo intensive treatment using the treat-to-target strategy, and pre-frail and frail patients with EORA should be treated with the aim of returning to a non-frail or pre-frail stage, respectively. An appropriate treatment strategy for EORA and younger-onset elderly RA should be developed in the next decade using a multi-disciplinary approach.

Erosions in the foot at baseline are predictive of orthopaedic shoe use after 10 years of treat to target therapy in patients with recent onset rheumatoid arthritis

The objective of this study is to investigate if foot joint damage due to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can predict whether patients will start wearing orthopaedic shoes (OS) within 10 years after treatment start. Data from recent onset RA patients with 10 years follow-up from the BeSt (Dutch acronym for treatment strategies) study were used. Treatment was tightly controlled, targeted at disease activity score (DAS) ≤2.4, according to 1 of 4 pre-specified treatment strategies. After 10 years of follow-up, orthopaedic shoe use was recorded in 285/508 patients (responders to questionnaires at 10 years). Between-group differences for orthopaedic shoe users and non-users were calculated at baseline, after 10 years, and change scores over the 10-year period were calculated. Predictors for orthopaedic shoe use were identified by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Orthopaedic shoe use was reported by 57/285 patients after 10 years. Orthopaedic shoe users had more joint damage, joint swelling and pain in the feet already at baseline and after 10 years. At both time points, DAS of orthopaedic shoe users and non-users was similar. Multivariable logistic regression showed that dichotomized foot erosions score (cut-off ≥1 erosion) (OR 2.42), anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) (OR 4.64) and DAS (OR 1.77) were independent predictors of orthopaedic shoe use. Despite intensive targeted treatment, 57/285 recent onset RA patients started using orthopaedic shoes over 10 year of follow-up. Presence of foot erosions at treatment start predicts orthopaedic shoe use after 10 years. The risk of orthopedic shoe use increased for ACPA-positive patients and for those with higher baseline disease activity.

Identifying patients with rheumatoid arthritis with moderate disease activity at risk of significant radiographic progression despite methotrexate treatment

Objectives

To determine the baseline factors predictive of significant radiographic progression (SRP) in patients with moderately active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) despite receiving methotrexate (MTX).

Methods

Patients from the MTX arm of the Trial of Etanercept and Methotrexate with Radiographic Patient Outcomes (TEMPO) trial with sustained moderate RA (defined as ≥3.2 mean disease activity score in 28 joints ≤5.1 during the last 6 months of the first year) were analysed for SRP (mTSS >3.0 overall) after 2 and 3 years. Baseline predictors for SRP were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. All variables shown to be significantly associated with SRP were categorised based on clinically relevant cut-offs and tertiles and were included in a matrix risk model.

Results

228 patients were assigned MTX treatment, 210 patients were in the radiographic intention-to-treat population, and 96 of these had sustained moderate RA. SRP occurred in 25 (26%) and 33 (34%) patients after 2 and 3 years of MTX treatment, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses found that C reactive protein (CRP) and rheumatoid factor (RF) positivity at baseline were predictive of SRP after 2 and 3 years (p<0.05 for all). The matrix risk model showed that RF positivity and CRP levels >40 mg/L at baseline were significantly associated with SRP after 2 (p<0.05 for both; R²=0.24) and 3 years (p<0.05 for both; R²=0.22). The baseline erosion score was not found to be predictive of SRP.

Conclusions

Patients with sustained moderate RA despite receiving MTX treatment are at risk of SRP, with both RF positivity and high CRP levels shown to be predictive of this.

Prevention of joint destruction in patients with high disease activity or high C-reactive protein levels: Post hoc analysis of the GO-FORTH study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the influence of golimumab dosage and disease activity on joint destruction in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the GO-FORTH study.

METHODS

Efficacy was compared among groups given basal methotrexate plus placebo, golimumab (50 mg), or golimumab (100 mg) with stratification by high (HDA) or moderate (MDA) baseline disease activity and by high or low baseline C-reactive protein (CRP).

RESULTS

Among HDA or high CRP patients, the mean change of the total Sharp score was 3.48 and 3.41 in the placebo group, 1.94 and 2.71 in the 50 mg group, and 0.39 and 1.15 in the 100 mg group, respectively. The percentage of progression-free patients with HDA or high CRP was 40.4% and 40.0%, 43.1% and 38.2%, and 69.8% and 61.5%, respectively. Among MDA or low CRP patients, both golimumab doses showed similar prevention of joint destruction. Among HDA or high CRP patients, a shorter disease duration and higher TSS/disease duration ratio were associated with joint destruction.

CONCLUSION

Both doses of golimumab (50 or 100 mg) prevented joint destruction in MDA or low CRP patients, but 100 mg was better for HDA or high CRP patients with a shorter disease duration or higher TSS/disease duration ratio.

Relationship of multi-biomarker disease activity score and other risk factors with radiographic progression in an observational study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives. To evaluate the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score as a predictor of radiographic progression and compare it with other risk factors among patients with established RA receiving non-biologic DMARDs.

Methods. For 163 patients with RA, we assessed 271 visits for MBDA score (scale of 1−100), clinical data and subsequent 1-year radiographic progression (change in Sharp−van der Heijde score [SHS]). Scatter plot and non-parametric quantile regression curves evaluated the relationship between the MBDA score and change in SHS. Changes in joint space narrowing and erosions were compared among MBDA categories with Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. The ability of the MBDA score to independently predict progression was determined by multivariate models and cross-classification of MBDA score with other risk factors. Generalized estimating equation methodology was used in model estimations to adjust for same-patient visits, always ≥1 year apart.

Results. Patient characteristics included 67% female, 66%/67% RF⁺/anti-CCP⁺; mean age 55 years, MBDA score 43 (moderate = 30−44); median disease duration 4.6 years, SHS 23. Radiographic progression was infrequent for low MBDA scores. Relative risk for progression increased continuously as the MBDA score increased, reaching 17.4 for change in SHS >5 with MBDA scores ≥60. Joint space narrowing and erosion progression were associated with MBDA score. MBDA score was associated with radiographic progression after adjustments for other risk factors. MBDA score significantly differentiated risk for progression when swollen joint count, CRP or DAS28–CRP was low, and among seropositive patients.

Conclusion. MBDA score enhanced the ability of conventional risk factors to predict radiographic progression in patients with established RA receiving non-biologic DMARDs.

Osteoprotegerin and tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand as prognostic factors in rheumatoid arthritis: results from the ESPOIR cohort

Introduction

We previously reported that low ratio of osteoprotegerin (OPG) to tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) was associated with Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) remission at 6 months in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here, we aimed to evaluate the value of baseline OPG/TRAIL ratio in predicting clinical and radiological outcomes in patients with early RA in the ESPOIR cohort.

Methods

OPG and TRAIL serum concentrations were assessed in the ESPOIR cohort patients. Patients with definite RA were included in this study. Patients were excluded if they had high erosion score at baseline (>90^th percentile) or received biological therapy during the first 2 years of follow-up. Data were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression to predict 1-year DAS28 remission and 2-year radiographic disease progression.

Results

On univariate analysis of 399 patients, OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was significantly lower in patients with than without remission at 1 year (p = 0.015). On multivariate logistic regression including age, gender, body mass index and DAS28, low OPG/TRAIL ratio was independently associated with remission at 1 year (odds ratio 1.68 [95 % confidence interval 1.01–2.79]). On univariate analysis, high OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was associated with rapid progression of erosion at 2 years (p = 0.041), and on multivariate logistic regression including age, anti-citrullinated protein antibody positivity and C-reactive protein level, OPG/TRAIL ratio independently predicted rapid progression of erosion at 2 years.

Conclusions

OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was an independent predictor of 1-year remission and 2-year rapid progression of erosion for patients with early rheumatoid arthritis. Thus, OPG/TRAIL ratio could be included in matrix prediction scores to predict rapid radiographic progression. Further confirmation in an independent cohort is warranted.

Improved serological detection of rheumatoid arthritis: a highly antigenic mimotope of carbonic anhydrase III selected in a murine model by phage display

INTRODUCTION

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease that affects around 1% of the human population worldwide. RA diagnosis can be difficult as there is no definitive test for its detection. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify biomarkers that could be used for RA diagnosis.

METHODS

Sera from a collagen-induced arthritis mouse model were used to select potential biomarkers for RA diagnosis by phage display technology. In silico and in vitro analyses were performed to characterize and validate the selected peptides. Samples were classified into three groups: RA; two other immune-mediated rheumatic diseases (systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS)); and healthy controls (HC). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was carried out to determine antibody levels, and diagnostic parameters were determined by constructing receiver operating characteristic curves. Mass spectrometry and Western blot were performed to identify the putative autoantigen that was mimicked by a highly reactive mimotope.

RESULTS

After three rounds of selection, 14 clones were obtained and tested for immunoreactivity analysis against sera from RA and HC groups. The phage-fused peptide with the highest immunoreactivity (M12) was synthesized, and was able to efficiently discriminate RA patients from SLE, AS and HCs (p < 0.0001) by ELISA. The specificity and sensitivity of anti-M12 antibodies for RA diagnosis were 91 % and 84.3 %, respectively. The M12 peptide was identified as one that mimics a predicted antigenic site of the carbonic anhydrase III (CAIII) protein, a ubiquitous biomarker that has been identified in patients with other diseases.

CONCLUSION

M12 is the first peptide associated with the CAIII protein that may be used as an antigen for antibody detection to aid in RA diagnosis with high sensitivity and specificity.

2014 update of the Consensus Statement of the Spanish Society of Rheumatology on the use of biological therapies in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

To establish recommendations for the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to serve as a reference for all health professionals involved in the care of these patients, and focusing on the role of available synthetic and biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs).

METHODS

Consensual recommendations were agreed on by a panel of 14 experts selected by the Spanish Society of Rheumatology (SER). The available scientific evidence was collected by updating three systematic reviews (SR) used for the EULAR 2013 recommendations. A new SR was added to answer an additional question. The literature review of the scientific evidence was made by the SER reviewer's group. The level of evidence and the degree of recommendation was classified according to the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine system. A Delphi panel was used to evaluate the level of agreement between panellists (strength of recommendation).

RESULTS

Thirteen recommendations for the management of adult RA were emitted. The therapeutic objective should be to treat patients in the early phases of the disease with the aim of achieving clinical remission, with methotrexate playing a central role in the therapeutic strategy of RA as the reference synthetic DMARD. Indications for biologic DMARDs were updated and the concept of the optimization of biologicals was introduced.

CONCLUSIONS

We present the fifth update of the SER recommendations for the management of RA with synthetic and biologic DMARDs.

Predicting joint destruction in rheumatoid arthritis with power Doppler, anti-citrullinated peptide antibody, and joint swelling

OBJECTIVE

To determine combined evaluation of musculoskeletal ultrasonography (MSUS) and power Doppler (PD) signals, anti-citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA), and other clinical findings improve the prediction of joint destruction in rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 331 RA patients (female n = 280 and male n = 51, mean age: 57.9 ± 13.2 years) who underwent MSUS from 2002 to 2012. Correlations with progression of joint destructions in 1,308 2nd and 3rd metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints and various factors including PD signals of the same joints, clinical findings, age, disease duration at the study entry, gender, observation period, radiographic bone scores according to modified Sharp-van der Heijde methods, ACPA, and rheumatoid factor (RF) were analyzed in patient- and joint-based fashions, using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and generalized linear mixed model.

RESULTS

Patients' characteristics were as follows: mean disease duration: 5.7 ± 7.5 years, observation period: 4.6 ± 2.6 years, RF positivity: 79.9%, and ACPA positivity: 77.5%. PD-positive 2nd and 3rd joints showed higher rate of joint destruction, especially in ACPA-positive patients. Moreover, PD-positive joints in ACPA-positive patients showed joint destruction even in joints without swelling. Multivariate analysis determined PD, swollen joint (SJ), observation period, basal radiographic bone scores, and ACPA as independent risks for joint destruction.

CONCLUSION

PD, SJ, basal radiographic bone scores, and ACPA are independent predictors for the joint destruction of 2nd and 3rd MCPs in RA; thus, considering these factors would be useful in daily practice.

A Simplified Baseline Prediction Model for Joint Damage Progression in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Step toward Personalized Medicine

Objective.

To compare the performance of an extended model and a simplified prognostic model for joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) based on 3 baseline risk factors: anticyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), erosions, and acute-phase reaction.

Methods.

Data were used from the Nijmegen early RA cohort. An extended model and a simplified baseline prediction model were developed to predict joint damage progression between 0 and 3 years. Joint damage progression was assessed using the Ratingen score. In the extended model, prediction factors were positivity for anti-CCP and/or rheumatoid factor, the level of erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and the quantity of erosions. The prediction score was calculated as the sum of the regression coefficients. In the simplified model, the prediction factors were dichotomized and the number of risk factors was counted. Performances of both models were compared using discrimination and calibration. The models were internally validated using bootstrapping.

Results.

The extended model resulted in a prediction score between 0 and 5.6 with an area under the receiver-operation characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.81). The simplified model resulted in a prediction score between 0 and 3. This model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.80). In internal validation, the 2 models showed reasonably well the agreement between observed and predicted probabilities for joint damage progression (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p > 0.05 and calibration slope near 1.0).

Conclusion.

A simple prediction model for joint damage progression in early RA, by only counting the number of risk factors, has adequate performance. This facilitates the translation of the theoretical prognostic models to daily clinical practice.

Personalizing Treatment Targets in Rheumatoid Arthritis by Using a Simple Prediction Model

Objective.

To develop a personalized treatment target approach in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) based on baseline risk factors for joint damage progression in combination with disease activity over time.

Methods.

Data were used from the Nijmegen early RA cohort. Presence or absence of anticyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), high erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and erosions were translated into 4 risk profiles: 0, 1, 2, and 3. Joint damage progression was assessed with the Ratingen score, and disease activity with the original Disease Activity Score (DAS) over 3 years. The probability for joint damage progression was calculated for each risk profile and each DAS category using logistic regression models. The probabilities were translated into personalized disease activity treatment targets.

Results.

More risk factors at baseline as well as a higher DAS level resulted in a higher probability for joint damage progression in a dose-dependent way. Low DAS corresponded with a probability of 0.0, 0.08, 0.20, and 0.58 in patients with 0, 1, 2, and 3 risk factors, respectively. Moderate DAS corresponded with a probability of 0.06 in patients with 0 risk factors and 0.35 with 1 risk factor. High DAS resulted in a probability of 0.50 with no risk factors present at baseline.

Conclusion.

Presence of anti-CCP, acute-phase response, and erosions at baseline can be used to set individual treatment targets in RA. In patients without these risk factors, a moderate DAS as a target is sufficient, while for patients with all 3 risk factors, a low DAS is not strict enough to limit the risk for joint damage.

The comparative safety of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis: a meta-analysis update of 44 trials

OBJECTIVE

The study objective was to evaluate and update the safety data from randomized controlled trials of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors in patients treated for rheumatoid arthritis.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted from 1990 to May 2013. All studies included were randomized, double-blind, controlled trials of patients with rheumatoid arthritis that evaluated adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, or infliximab treatment. The serious adverse events and discontinuation rates were abstracted, and risk estimates were calculated by Peto odds ratios (ORs).

RESULTS

Forty-four randomized controlled trials involving 11,700 subjects receiving tumor necrosis factor inhibitors and 5901 subjects receiving placebo or traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs were included. Tumor necrosis factor inhibitor treatment as a group was associated with a higher risk of serious infection (OR, 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.78) and treatment discontinuation due to adverse events (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.06-1.43) compared with placebo and traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drug treatments. Specifically, patients taking adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, and infliximab had an increased risk of serious infection (OR, 1.69, 1.98, and 1.63, respectively) and showed an increased risk of discontinuation due to adverse events (OR, 1.38, 1.67, and 2.04, respectively). In contrast, patients taking etanercept had a decreased risk of discontinuation due to adverse events (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55-0.93). Although ORs for malignancy varied across the different tumor necrosis factor inhibitors, none reached statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

These meta-analysis updates of the comparative safety of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors suggest a higher risk of serious infection associated with adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, and infliximab, which seems to contribute to higher rates of discontinuation. In contrast, etanercept use showed a lower rate of discontinuation. These data may help guide clinical comparative decision making in the management of rheumatoid arthritis.

Clinical parameters and biomarkers for anti-TNF treatment prognosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This finding has led to the development of TNF blockers for RA treatment. However, response to these therapies is heterogeneous with success in only two thirds of patient. Some clinical aspects useful in the attempt to predict the response to TNF inhibitors is the promptness and the magnitude of the response at the first weeks and a low basal disease activity, while comorbidities, tobacco, glucocorticoids treatment, and high basal radiological score correlate with a poorer response. The role of TNF promoter polymorphisms in clinical response to anti-TNF therapies is controversial. A correlation between the presence of high baseline titers of rheumatoid factor (RF) and decreased response to anti-TNF treatment has been reported. Most studies show decreased RF titers during anti-TNF treatment mainly in patients who responded to treatment. There is no consensus about the usefulness of basal anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) levels, and a decrease in ACPA titers as predictor of clinical response to anti-TNF therapy. Despite some promising markers identified to fulfill this role, currently the predictive value of single markers seems not strong enough to predict treatment response in an individual RA patient.

Can we prevent rapid radiological progression in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis?

The aim of this study is to test the performance of a matrix model to predict rapid radiological progression (RRP) in a study population of early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or undifferentiated arthritis (UA) patients. A matrix model using baseline CRP, erosion score, autoantibody status, and initial treatment choice to predict RRP (increase ≥5 points in Sharp-van der Heijde score (SHS) in 1 year) was derived from the BeSt study where patients with active RA (1987-criteria) were treated with initial monotherapy or combination therapy, aiming at low disease activity. In the IMPROVED study, patients with early RA (2010 criteria) and UA were initially treated with methotrexate and prednisone aiming at remission. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to assess the discriminative value of the model to predict damage progression in the IMPROVED population. Four hundred thirty-one out of 479 patients with RA and 106/122 with UA could be categorized as high, intermediate, low, or very low risk for RRP. One patient, with a very low risk profile, showed RRP. Thirty-two other patients (5 %) showed radiological progression ≥0.5 point SHS; none had a high risk profile and 22 had a very low risk profile. The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve was 0.56 (95% CI 0.45; 0.68). A matrix model predicting RRP based on risk factors identified in recent onset active RA according to the 1987-criteria performed poorly in recent onset RA (2010 criteria) and UA. It appears that known risk factors for damage progression lose their impact with early remission steered treatment, so that RRP might be considered a phenomenon of the past.

Relationship between disease activity indices and their individual components and radiographic progression in RA: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between different disease activity indices (DAIs) and their individual components and radiographic progression in patients with RA.

METHODS

A systematic literature review until July 2013 was performed by two independent reviewers using the Medline and Embase databases. Longitudinal studies assessing the relationship between DAIs and single instruments and radiographic progression were included. The results were grouped based on the means of measurement (baseline vs time integrated) and analysis (univariable or multivariable).

RESULTS

Fifty-seven studies from 1232 hits were included. All published studies that assessed the relationship between any time-integrated DAI including joint count and radiographic progression reached a statistically significant association. Among the single instruments, only swollen joint count and ESR were associated with radiographic progression, while no significant association was found for tender joint count. Data with respect to CRP are conflicting. Data on patient's global health, pain assessment and evaluator's global assessment are limited and do not support a positive association with progression of joint damage.

CONCLUSION

Published data indicate that all DAIs that include swollen joints are related to radiographic progression while, of the individual components, only swollen joints and acute phase reactants are associated. Therefore composite DAIs are the optimal tool to monitor disease activity in patients with RA.