Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling

Precision prevention of oesophageal adenocarcinoma

The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen rapidly over the past four decades. Unfortunately, treatments have not kept pace; unless their cancer is identified at a very early stage, most patients will not survive a year after diagnosis. The beginnings of this widespread problem were first recognized over 25 years ago, yet rates have continued to rise against a backdrop of much improved understanding and management of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We estimate that only ∼7% of the 10,000 cases of oesophageal adenocarcinoma diagnosed annually in the USA are identified through current approaches to cancer control, and trace pathways by which the remaining 93% are 'lost'. On the basis of emerging data on aetiology and predictive factors, together with new diagnostic tools, we suggest a five-tier strategy for prevention and control that begins with a wide population base and triages individuals into progressively higher risk strata, each with risk-appropriate prevention, screening and treatment options.