Lifetime cost of stroke subtypes in Australia: findings from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

Patterns and costs of treatment for heroin dependence over 12 months: fndings from the Australian Treatment Outcome Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine patterns and costs of treatment for heroin dependence over a 12-month period among a cohort of heroin users seeking treatment.

METHODS

The design was a longitudinal cohort study of heroin users seeking treatment who participated in the Australian Treatment Outcome Study (ATOS), which was conducted in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, Australia. Treatment for heroin dependence, for those who were followed up at 12 months, was recorded and costed. Unit costs, obtained from secondary sources, were used to estimate the cost of treatment. This study does not include wide societal costs and only includes personal costs as they pertain to treatment.

RESULTS

A follow-up rate of 81% at 12 months was achieved, resulting in data for 596 participants. Participants spent an average of 188 days in treatment over 2.7 episodes. Sixty-nine per cent of the sample reported at least one episode of treatment following their index treatment. There was a noticeable trend for subjects who received maintenance or residential rehabilitation as their index treatment to return to the same form of treatment for subsequent episodes. In contrast, those who received detoxification as index treatment accessed a wider variety of treatment types over the follow-up period. The cost of treatment over the 12-month follow-up totalled dollar 3,901,416, with a mean of dollar 6,517 per person.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This study demonstrates that individuals seeking treatment have multiple treatment episodes throughout a 12-month period, with a tendency to return to the same form of treatment. This study also demonstrates that it is feasible and affordable to provide ongoing treatment for a group of heroin users seeking treatment.

Comparison of Clinical Characteristics and Functional Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke in Different Vascular Territories

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We aim to compare demographics and functional outcomes of patients with stroke in a variety of vascular territories who underwent inpatient rehabilitation. Such comparative data are important in functional prognostication, rehabilitation, and healthcare planning, but literature is scarce and isolated.

METHODS

Using data collected prospectively over a 9-year period, we studied 2213 individuals who sustained first-ever ischemic strokes and were admitted to an inpatient stroke rehabilitation program. Strokes were divided into anterior cerebral artery, middle cerebral artery (MCA), posterior cerebral artery, brain stem, cerebellar, small-vessel strokes, and strokes occurring in more than one vascular territory. The main functional outcome measure was the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance with post hoc analyses was used to compare functional outcomes of the stroke groups.

RESULTS

The most common stroke groups were MCA stroke (50.8%) and small-vessel stroke (12.8%). After adjustments for age, gender, risk factors, and admission year, the stroke groups can be arranged from most to least severe disability on admission: strokes in more than one vascular territory, MCA, anterior cerebral artery, posterior cerebral artery, brain stem, cerebellar, and small-vessel strokes. The sequence was similar on discharge, except cerebellar strokes had the least disability rather than small-vessel strokes. Hemispheric (more than one vascular territory, MCA, anterior cerebral artery, posterior cerebral artery) strokes collectively have significantly lower admission and discharge total and cognitive FIM scores compared with the other stroke groups. MCA stroke had the lowest FIM efficiency and cerebellar stroke the highest. Regardless, patients with stroke made significant (P<0.001) and approximately equal (P=0.535) functional gains in all groups. Higher admission motor and cognitive FIM scores, longer rehabilitation stay, younger patients, lower number of medical complications, and a year of admission after 2000 were associated with higher discharge total FIM scores on multiple regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with stroke made significant functional gains and should be offered rehabilitation regardless of stroke vascular territory. The initial functional status at admission, rather than the stroke subgroup, better predicts discharge functional outcomes postrehabilitation.

The societal costs of intracerebral hemorrhage in Spain

This study estimates the lifetime societal costs associated with incident intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in Spain. An epidemiological model of ICH incidence, survival and morbidity was developed using retrospective data from 28 hospitals in Andalusia and published data identified in a systematic literature review. Data on resource utilization and costs were obtained from five hospitals in the Canary Islands, whereas cost of outpatient care, informal care and lost productivity were obtained from standardized questionnaires completed by survivors of ICH. The lifetime societal costs of incident ICH in Spain is estimated at 46,193 euros per patient. Direct medical costs accounted for 32.7% of lifetime costs, whilst 67.3% were related to indirect costs. One-third of direct medical costs over the first year were attributable to follow-up care, including rehabilitation. Indirect costs were dominated by costs of informal care (71.2%). The aggregated lifetime societal costs for the estimated 12,534 Spanish patients with a first-ever ICH in 2004 was 579 million euros. ICH implies substantial costs to society primarily due to formal and informal follow-up care and support needed after hospital discharge. Interventions that offer survival benefits without improving patients' functional status are likely to further increase the societal costs of ICH.

The Quit Benefits Model: a Markov model for assessing the health benefits and health care cost savings of quitting smoking

Background

In response to the lack of comprehensive information about the health and economic benefits of quitting smoking for Australians, we developed the Quit Benefits Model (QBM).

Methods

The QBM is a Markov model, programmed in TreeAge, that assesses the consequences of quitting in terms of cases avoided of the four most common smoking-associated diseases, deaths avoided, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health care costs saved (in Australian dollars, A$). Quitting outcomes can be assessed for males and females in 14 five year age-groups from 15–19 to 80–84 years.

Exponential models, based on data from large case-control and cohort studies, were developed to estimate the decline over time after quitting in the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and death. Australian data for the year 2001 were sourced for disease incidence and mortality and health care costs. Utility of life estimates were sourced from an international registry and a meta analysis.

In this paper, outcomes are reported for simulated subjects followed up for ten years after quitting smoking. Life-years, QALYs and costs were estimated with 0%, 3% and 5% per annum discount rates. Summary results are presented for a group of 1,000 simulated quitters chosen at random from the Australian population of smokers aged between 15 and 74.

Results

For every 1,000 males chosen at random from the reference population who quit smoking, there is a an average saving in the first ten years following quitting of A$408,000 in health care costs associated with AMI, COPD, lung cancer and stroke, and a corresponding saving of A$328,000 for every 1,000 female quitters. The average saving per 1,000 random quitters is A$373,000. Overall 40 of these quitters will be spared a diagnosis of AMI, COPD, lung cancer and stroke in the first ten years following quitting, with an estimated saving of 47 life-years and 75 QALYs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that QBM predictions were robust to variations of ± 10% in parameter estimates.

Conclusion

The QBM can answer many of the questions posed by Australian policy-makers and health program funders about the benefits of quitting, and is a useful tool to evaluate tobacco control programs. It can easily be re-programmed with updated information or a set of epidemiologic data from another country.

Long-Term Mortality, Morbidity and Hospital Care following Intracerebral Hemorrhage: An 11-Year Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) represents the severest form of stroke, yet examinations of long-term prognosis and associated health care use are rare. This study assessed survival, morbidity and cost of hospital care over 11 years following a first-ever ICH in the UK.

METHODS

We used a population-based retrospective inception cohort design using data from the Hospital Record Linkage System in Scotland. Long-term survival, morbidity and treatment provided in hospitals were evaluated in all patients with a first diagnosis of ICH in 1995. A cohort of ischemic stroke (IS) patients was also examined for comparison.

RESULTS

A total of 705 patients with ICH and 8,893 with IS were identified. The mean age was 65 years (SD = 17.2) for ICH and 73 years (SD = 11.8) for IS at stroke onset. The acute in-hospital mortality was 45.7 and 30.1% for ICH and IS, 51.2 and 39.9% at 1 year, while 76.0 and 80.4% were dead 11 years later. The cumulative risk of nonfatal or fatal ICH was 8.0, 12.7 and 13.7% at 1, 5 and 10 years, and 7.0, 11.1 and 12.9% for IS in the ICH cohort. The mean cost of initial hospital care was GBP 10,332 (SD = 19,919) for ICH and GBP 9,937 (SD = 15,777) for IS. The mean total costs over 11 years were GBP 18,629 (SD = 29,943) for ICH and GBP 21,505 (SD = 27,190) for IS.

CONCLUSION

Following a first ICH, individuals have a poorer short-term prognosis than individuals with IS, yet both ICH and IS imply significant follow-up care.

Population-Based Study of Determinants of Initial Secondary Care Costs of Acute Stroke in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of specific interventions to prevent or treat acute stroke, it is necessary to know the costs of stroke according to patient characteristics and stroke subtype and etiology. However, very few such data are available and none from population-based studies. We determined the predictors of resource use and acute care costs of stroke using data from a population-based study.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Oxford Vascular study, a population-based cohort of all individuals in nine general practices in Oxfordshire, UK, which identified 346 patients with a first or recurrent stroke during April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2004. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the main predictors of resource use and costs.

RESULTS

Acute care costs ranged from 326 pounds sterling (lower decile) to 19,901 pounds sterling (upper decile). There were multiple important univariate interrelations of patient characteristics, stroke subtype, and stroke etiology with hospital admission, length of stay, and 30-day case-fatality. For example, patients with primary intracerebral hemorrhage were more likely to be admitted than patients with partial anterior circulation ischemic stroke and less likely to survive without disability, but length of stay was reduced as a result of high early case-fatality such that cost was substantially less. However, the majority of univariate predictors of resource use, cost, and outcome were confounded by initial stroke severity as measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, which accounted for approximately half of the predicted variance in cost. Cost increased approximately linearly up to an National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of 18 and then fell steeply at higher scores as a result of rising early case-fatality.

CONCLUSIONS

Several patient and event-related characteristics explained the wide range of initial secondary care costs of acute stroke, but stroke severity was by far the most important independent predictor.

The time course of subsequent hospitalizations and associated costs in survivors of an ischemic stroke in Canada

Background

Documentation of the hospitalizations rates following a stroke provides the inputs required for planning health services and to evaluate the economic efficiency of any new therapies.

Methods

Hospitalization rates by cause were examined using administrative data on 18,695 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke (first or subsequent, excluding transient ischemic attack) in Saskatchewan, Canada between 1990 and 1995. Medical history was available retrospectively to January 1980 and follow-up was complete to March 2000. Analyses evaluated the rate and timing of all-cause and cardiovascular hospitalizations within discrete periods in the five years following the index stroke. Cardiovascular hospitalizations included patients with a primary diagnosis of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, stable or unstable angina, heart failure or peripheral arterial disease.

Results

One-third (36%) of patients were identified by a hospitalized stroke. Mean age was 70.5 years, 48.0% were male, half had a history of stroke or a transient ischemic attack at the time of their index stroke. Three-quarters of the patients (72.7%) were hospitalized at least once during a mean follow-up of 4.6 years, accruing CAD $24 million in the first year alone. Of all hospitalizations, 20.4% were related to cardiovascular disease and 1.6% to bleeds. In the month following index stroke, 12.5% were admitted, an average of 1.04 times per patient hospitalized. Strokes accounted for 33% of all hospitalizations in the first month. The rate diminished steadily throughout the year and stabilized in the second year when approximately one-third of patients required hospitalization, at a rate of about one hospitalization for every two patient-years. Mean lengths of stay ranged from nine days to nearly 40 days. Close-fitting Weibull functions allow highly specific probability estimates. Other cardiovascular risk factors significantly increased hospitalization rates.

Conclusion

After stroke, there are frequent hospitalizations accounting for substantial additional costs. Though these rates drop after one year, they remain high over time. The number of other cardiovascular causes of hospitalization confirms that stroke is a manifestation of disseminated atherothrombotic disease.

A mediterranean diet is cost-effective in patients with previous myocardial infarction

This evaluation aimed to assess the economic performance of the Mediterranean diet for patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). A cost utility analysis using a Markov model was used to compare the Mediterranean diet to a prudent Western diet over a time frame of 10 years. After a systematic review of the literature, program effectiveness was based on the Lyon Diet Heart Study (605 patients, mean age 54 y, randomized to the Mediterranean diet delivered by a dietician and cardiologist, or a prudent Western diet). Costs were estimated in AU$ [and converted to US$ and Euros (euro)] based on the resource use to which published unit costs were applied. Cost and benefits were discounted at 5% per annum. The main outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Extensive 1-way sensitivity analyses were performed. The Mediterranean diet compared with a prudent Western diet was estimated to cost AU$1013 (US$703, euro579) per QALY gained per person. There was a mean gain in life years of 0.31/person and a gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.40/person. Based on the published results from the Lyon Diet Heart Study and conservative assumptions, the Mediterranean diet is highly cost-effective for persons after a first AMI and represents an exceptional return on investment. Policy makers should strongly consider the generalizability of results to their own setting.

Lifetime Cost of Ischemic Stroke in Germany: Results and National Projections From a Population-Based Stroke Registry

Background and Purpose— The number of stroke patients and the healthcare costs of strokes are expected to rise. The objective of this study was to determine the direct costs of first ischemic stroke and to estimate the expected increase in costs in Germany.

Methods— An incidence-based, bottom-up, direct-cost-of-ischemic-stroke study from the third-party payer’s perspective was performed, incorporating 10-year survival data and 5-year resource use data from the Erlangen Stroke Registry. Discounted lifetime year 2004 costs per case were obtained and applied to the expected age and sex evolution of the German resident population in the period 2006 to 2025.

Results— The overall cost per first-year survivor of first-ever ischemic stroke was estimated to be 18 517 euros (EUR). Rehabilitation accounted for 37% of this cost, whereas in subsequent years outpatient care was the major cost driver. Discounted lifetime cost per case was 43 129 EUR overall and was higher in men (45 549 EUR) than in women (41 304 EUR). National projections for the period 2006 to 2025 showed 1.5 million and 1.9 million new cases of ischemic stroke in men and women, respectively, at a present value of 51.5 and 57.1 billion EUR, respectively.

Conclusions— The number of stroke patients and the healthcare costs of strokes in Germany will rise continuously until the year 2025. Therefore, stroke prevention and reduction of stroke-related disability should be made priorities in health planning policies.

Cost-of-illness studies : a review of current methods

The number of cost-of-illness (COI) studies has expanded considerably over time. One outcome of this growth is that the reported COI estimates are inconsistent across studies, thereby raising concerns over the validity of the estimates and methods. Several factors have been identified in the literature as reasons for the observed variation in COI estimates. To date, the variation in the methods used to calculate costs has not been examined in great detail even though the variations in methods are a major driver of variation in COI estimates. The objective of this review was to document the variation in the methodologies employed in COI studies and to highlight the benefits and limitations of these methods. The review of COI studies was implemented following a four-step procedure: (i) a structured literature search of MEDLINE, JSTOR and EconLit; (ii) a review of abstracts using pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria; (iii) a full-text review using pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria; and (iv) classification of articles according to the methods used to calculate costs. This review identified four COI estimation methods (Sum_All Medical, Sum_Diagnosis Specific, Matched Control and Regression) that were used in categorising articles. Also, six components of direct medical costs and five components of indirect/non-medical costs were identified and used in categorising articles.365 full-length articles were reflected in the current review following the structured literature search. The top five cost components were emergency room/inpatient hospital costs, outpatient physician costs, drug costs, productivity losses and laboratory costs. The dominant method, Sum_Diagnosis Specific, was a total costing approach that restricted the summation of medical expenditures to those related to a diagnosis of the disease of interest. There was considerable variation in the methods used within disease subcategories. In several disease subcategories (e.g. asthma, dementia, diabetes mellitus), all four estimation methods were represented, and in other cases (e.g. HIV/AIDS, obesity, stroke, urinary incontinence, schizophrenia), three of the four estimation methods were represented. There was also evidence to suggest that the strengths and weaknesses of each method were considered when applying a method to a specific illness. Comparisons and assessments of COI estimates should consider the method used to estimate costs both as an important source of variation in the reported COI estimates and as a marker of the reliability of the COI estimate.

Cost-effectiveness of losartan-based therapy in patients with hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy: a UK-based economic evaluation of the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) study

The Losartan Intervention for Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) study demonstrated the clinical benefit of losartan-based therapy in hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), mainly due to a highly significant 25% reduction in the relative risk of stroke compared with an atenolol-based regimen, for a similar reduction in blood pressure. The aim of this economic evaluation was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of losartan compared with atenolol from a UK national health system perspective. Quality-adjusted survival and direct medical costs were modelled beyond the trial using the within-trial incidence of stroke. Survival with stroke, study medication use and quality of life by stroke status were taken directly from the LIFE trial. The LIFE data were supplemented with UK data on lifetime direct medical costs of stroke and life expectancy in individuals without stroke. No additional stroke events or use of study treatment were assumed beyond the trial. Costs and benefits were discounted using current UK Treasury rates. In the base-case analysis, the reduction in stroke-related costs (by 968 sterling pound) offset 86% of the increase in study medication costs (1128 sterling pound) among losartan-treated patients. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for losartan versus atenolol in hypertensive patients with LVH was 2130 sterling pound per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (3195 Euro/QALY), and this increased to 11,352 sterling pound per QALY gained (16,450 Euro/QALY) when the costs of stroke beyond the first 5 years were excluded. Thus, the clinical benefit of losartan was achieved at a cost well within reported thresholds for cost-effectiveness.

Development and application of Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke

OBJECTIVES

To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]).

METHODS

The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions.

RESULTS

The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$ 15,117 versus AUD$ 17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997).

CONCLUSIONS

MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model.

Short-term impact of smoking cessation on myocardial infarction and stroke hospitalisations and costs in Australia

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the short-term benefits of a reduction in smoking on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke hospitalisations and costs.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Epidemiological study which applied functions describing reductions over time in risk of AMI and stroke in people quitting smoking to hospitalisation rates and costs for Australia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The numbers of AMI and stroke hospitalisations in 35-64-year-olds and the associated costs that could have been avoided over a 7-year period from 2001-02 if smoking prevalence had decreased by 1% in the first year (Scenario 1) or by 1% per annum for 5 consecutive years (Scenario 2).

RESULTS

Under Scenario 1, almost 1000 hospitalisations for AMI and about 350 hospitalisations for stroke would have been avoided over 7 years, saving about $20.4 million in health care costs. Under Scenario 2, over 3000 AMI hospitalisations and over 1000 stroke hospitalisations would be avoided, and health care costs could be reduced by $61.6 million (2.75% of costs for AMI and stroke over the period).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides further support for the proposition that modest and achievable reductions in smoking rates can substantially improve health outcomes and reduce health care costs, even in the short term.

Are Cost Benefits of Anticoagulation for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Underestimated?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) tend to be worse than those in patients without AF. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether the cost benefits of anticoagulation for stroke prevention in AF may currently be underestimated by existing economic models that do not distinguish between different stroke outcomes.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted in 3 areas: (1) studies comparing stroke outcomes in AF and non-AF patients; (2) studies providing long-term cost of stroke estimates; and (3) studies modeling the cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation with a vitamin K antagonist (eg, warfarin) in AF patients.

RESULTS

There is considerable evidence that stroke in AF patients has a worse outcome than in patients without AF, including higher mortality, severity, and recurrence rates, and greater functional impairment and dependency. Estimates of the long-term cost of stroke of different severities were between US 24,991 dollars for a mild stroke over 5 years and US 142,251 dollars for a major ischemic stroke over a lifetime (2004 prices). The cost of a severe ischemic stroke may typically be 3-times that of mild stroke. However, cost-effectiveness models for anticoagulation in patients with AF have used average (not AF-specific) cost-of-stroke data, and most have used stroke severity distributions derived from clinical trials, which may differ from those in clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing economic models underestimate the cost benefits of anticoagulation for stroke prevention because they do not adjust for poorer outcomes associated with cardioembolic strokes.

Overview of costs of stroke from published, incidence-based studies spanning 16 industrialized countries

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review is to summarize published data (based on a search of Medline sources, 1993-October 2003) from the last 10 years on the costs of stroke. With the recent encouraging evidence of interventions that reduce the incidence of stroke, the primary focus is on incidence-based cost of stroke studies to identify important factors for future cost-effectiveness analyses on stroke interventions.

FINDINGS

Lifetime costs per patient were in the range USD 11 787 for 'unclassified' stroke in Australia to USD 3035671 in stroke patients with untreated non-rheumatic atrial fibrillation in a UK setting (costs inflated to 2003 values). For the lifetime costs of ischemic stroke only, the range narrowed to USD 41257 in Australia and USD 104629 in the UK. These data confirm that stroke management is associated with a vast economic burden. No correlation of lifetime cost of stroke with specific cost components or time horizon was identified. The cost of stroke is influenced by severity (more severe strokes cost more due to extended hospitalization), age (costs were greater in younger stroke patients) and gender (direct costs were greater for women, but indirect costs were greater in men).

CONCLUSION

Conducting research according to methodological consensus would markedly improve the quality of data from future studies of stroke and support identification of the main cost drivers in different country-specific settings.

A Community-Based Educational Intervention to Improve Antithrombotic Drug Use in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Despite evidence that antithrombotics are effective in reducing the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF), they remain underused.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a controlled trial of a comprehensive educational program promoting the rational prescribing of antithrombotics for stroke prevention in AF.

METHODS

The intervention was conducted in Southern Tasmania, Australia, using Northern Tasmania as a control area. General practitioners were sent locally produced guidelines on stroke risk stratification and antithrombotic drug use in AF, which were followed by academic detailing visits. Outcomes were measured using evaluation feedback from the general practitioners, and drug utilization data were provided by a series of patients presenting to the hospital with an admission diagnosis of AF and dispensing of antithrombotic therapy under the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.

RESULTS

During the educational intervention, 272 guidelines were mailed and, subsequently, 162 general practitioners were visited and the guidelines discussed. Hospital admission data before and after the intervention revealed a significant increase in the use of warfarin in patients at high risk of stroke (33% vs 46% of eligible patients; p < 0.05). Analysis of prescription data for warfarin also indicated that the increase in use of warfarin within the intervention region was significantly greater than for the control region (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The educational program described here led to a significant increase in the prescribing of warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with AF.

Risk factors for ischaemic stroke recurrence after hospitalisation

OBJECTIVE

To determine risk factors for ischaemic stroke recurrence among patients admitted to hospital for a first-ever occurrence of ischaemic stroke.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS

Retrospective study involving linked hospitalisation and death records. The cohort comprised 7816 people who were hospitalised for first-ever ischaemic stroke between July 1995 and December 1999 in Western Australia. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors for stroke recurrence.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Time to first recurrence; cumulative recurrence risk; risk factors for recurrence.

RESULTS

The median time to first stroke recurrence was 255 days. The cumulative probability of first recurrence was 5.1% (95% CI, 4.6%-5.7%) at 6 months, 8.4% (95% CI, 7.6%-9.1%) at 1 year and 19.8% (95% CI, 18.1%-21.4%) at 4 years. The risk of first recurrence was increased by advancing age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04), Aboriginality (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.02-2.22), diabetes (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.51), a history of cardiac conditions (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01-1.38), post-stroke urinary incontinence (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.57) and transfer to another hospital on index admission (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08-1.46). Admission at first stroke occurrence to a hospital maintaining a stroke unit reduced the risk of recurrence (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.99).

CONCLUSION

The risk factors identified in our study have implications for planning secondary prevention strategies. In particular, Aboriginality and transfer to another hospital upon admission for first-ever ischaemic stroke were important risk factors. Research into the level of compliance and access to stroke treatment by Aboriginal patients to prevent further strokes is required.