A descriptive study of the prevalence of atypical and classical scrapie in sheep in 20 European countries

Breeding with resistant rams leads to rapid control of classical scrapie in affected sheep flocks

Susceptibility to scrapie, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep, is modulated by the genetic make-up of the sheep. Scrapie control policies, based on selecting animals of resistant genotype for breeding, have recently been adopted by the Netherlands and other European countries. Here we assess the effectiveness of a breeding programme based on selecting rams of resistant genotype to obtain outbreak control in classical scrapie-affected sheep flocks under field conditions. In six commercially-run flocks following this breeding strategy, we used genotyping to monitor the genotype distribution, and tonsil biopsies and post-mortem analyses to monitor the occurrence of scrapie infection. The farmers were not informed about the monitoring results until the end of the study period of six years. We used a mathematical model of scrapie transmission to analyze the monitoring data and found that where the breeding scheme was consistently applied, outbreak control was obtained after at most four years. Our results also show that classical scrapie control can be obtained before the frequency of non-resistant animals is reduced to zero in the flock. This suggests that control at the national scale can be obtained without a loss of genetic polymorphisms from any of the sheep breeds.

Atypical prion diseases in humans and animals

Although prion diseases, such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and scrapie in sheep, have long been recognized, our understanding of their epidemiology and pathogenesis is still in its early stages. Progress is hampered by the lengthy incubation periods and the lack of effective ways of monitoring and characterizing these agents. Protease-resistant conformers of the prion protein (PrP), known as the "scrapie form" (PrP(Sc)), are used as disease markers, and for taxonomic purposes, in correlation with clinical, pathological, and genetic data. In humans, prion diseases can arise sporadically (sCJD) or genetically (gCJD and others), caused by mutations in the PrP-gene (PRNP), or as a foodborne infection, with the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) causing variant CJD (vCJD). Person-to-person spread of human prion disease has only been known to occur following cannibalism (kuru disease in Papua New Guinea) or through medical or surgical treatment (iatrogenic CJD, iCJD). In contrast, scrapie in small ruminants and chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids behave as infectious diseases within these species. Recently, however, so-called atypical forms of prion diseases have been discovered in sheep (atypical/Nor98 scrapie) and in cattle, BSE-H and BSE-L. These maladies resemble sporadic or genetic human prion diseases and might be their animal equivalents. This hypothesis also raises the significant public health question of possible epidemiological links between these diseases and their counterparts in humans.

A Bayesian hierarchical analysis to compare classical and atypical scrapie surveillance data; Wales 2002-2006

We describe the application of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) to the analysis of risk of sheep scrapie using data from multiple surveillance sources. More specifically, we analysed data from the test results of three surveillance sources on classical and atypical scrapie in Wales for the period 2002-2006. For each form of scrapie, a BHM was fitted to assess the occurrence of spatial patterns of risk shared by the multiple surveillance sources and the association between covariates and disease. We defined a shared-component model whereby the two types of data sources: exhaustive lists (e.g. reports of clinical cases) and sample-based data sources (e.g. abattoir survey) shared a common spatial pattern of risks at parish level. This shared component was adjusted by a risk-gradient parameter that moderated the individual contribution of the datasets. For both forms of scrapie, the risk-gradient was not significantly different indicating that the sensitivity of the two types of dataset was similar for the two diseases. The spatial patterns of the combinations of data sources appeared similar within disease. However, our results suggest that classical and atypical scrapie differ in their spatial patterns and disease determinants. The joint approach permitted inference from all the available evidence and resulted in robust and less biased estimates of risk, particularly for atypical scrapie where the number of observations was very limited.

Detection of PrP(Sc) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue by Western blot differentiates classical scrapie, Nor98 scrapie, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy

Transmissible, spongiform encephalopathies including bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie are fatal neurodegenerative disorders associated with the presence of an infectious abnormal isoform of normal mammalian proteins called prions. Identification of the prion protein associated with scrapie (PrP(Sc)) in the central nervous system is typically based upon immunoassays including immunohistochemistry (IHC) using formalin-fixed tissues or Western blot (WB) assays using fresh and/or frozen, non-formalin-fixed tissues. Each assay can discriminate between BSE, classical scrapie, and a previously reported strain of scrapie recently identified in the United States named Nor98 scrapie. Different tissue samples are required from the same animal to run these 2 different immunoassays. This may result in inconsistent test results for the same animal. Sampling problems such as collecting insufficient volumes of fresh tissue or less than optimal anatomic location of brainstem for IHC can affect the ability of the test procedures to offer definitive and discriminatory results. Recently, a WB method using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue to identify PrP(Sc) was developed that successfully identified PrP(Sc) in sheep affected by classical scrapie. In the current study, the use of this technique to produce discriminatory results identifying classical BSE in bovine tissue and both classical and Nor98 scrapie in ovine tissue using paraffin-embedded brain samples is described. Protein-banding patterns from WB using FFPE tissue were similar to protein-banding patterns produced by WB assays utilizing fresh tissues from the same animals, and results correlated well with the IHC PrP(Sc)-positive staining present in the cerebellum and obex regions of brain samples from these animals.

Quantitative estimation of genetic risk for atypical scrapie in French sheep and potential consequences of the current breeding programme for resistance to scrapie on the risk of atypical scrapie

BACKGROUND

Since 2002, active surveillance programmes have detected numerous atypical scrapie (AS) and classical scrapie cases (CS) in French sheep with almost all the PrP genotypes. The aim of this study was 1) to quantify the genetic risk of AS in French sheep and to compare it with the risk of CS, 2) to quantify the risk of AS associated with the increase of the ARR allele frequency as a result of the current genetic breeding programme against CS.

METHODS

We obtained genotypes at codons 136, 141, 154 and 171 of the PRNP gene for representative samples of 248 AS and 245 CS cases. We used a random sample of 3,317 scrapie negative animals genotyped at codons 136, 154 and 171 and we made inferences on the position 141 by multiple imputations, using external data. To estimate the risk associated with PrP genotypes, we fitted multivariate logistic regression models and we estimated the prevalence of AS for the different genotypes. Then, we used the risk of AS estimated for the ALRR-ALRR genotype to analyse the risk of detecting an AS case in a flock homogenous for this genotype.

RESULTS

Genotypes most at risk for AS were those including an AFRQ or ALHQ allele while genotypes including a VLRQ allele were less commonly associated with AS. Compared to ALRQ-ALRQ, the ALRR-ALRR genotype was significantly at risk for AS and was very significantly protective for CS. The prevalence of AS among ALRR-ALRR animals was 0.6 per thousand and was not different from the prevalence in the general population.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, further selection of ALRR-ALRR animals will not result in an overall increase of AS prevalence in the French sheep population although this genotype is clearly susceptible to AS. However the probability of detecting AS cases in flocks participating in genetic breeding programme against CS should be considered.

Scrapie prevalence in sheep of susceptible genotype is declining in a population subject to breeding for resistance

Background

Susceptibility of sheep to scrapie infection is known to be modulated by the PrP genotype of the animal. In the Netherlands an ambitious scrapie control programme was started in 1998, based on genetic selection of animals for breeding. From 2002 onwards EU regulations required intensive active scrapie surveillance as well as certain control measures in affected flocks.

Here we analyze the data on genotype frequencies and scrapie prevalence in the Dutch sheep population obtained from both surveillance and affected flocks, to identify temporal trends. We also estimate the genotype-specific relative risks to become a detected scrapie case.

Results

We find that the breeding programme has produced a steady increase in the level of genetic scrapie resistance in the Dutch sheep population. We also find that a significant decline in the prevalence of scrapie in tested animals has occurred a number of years after the start of the breeding programme. Most importantly, the estimated scrapie prevalence level per head of susceptible genotype is also declining significantly, indicating that selective breeding causes a population effect.

Conclusions

The Dutch scrapie control programme has produced a steady rise in genetic resistance levels in recent years. A recent decline in the scrapie prevalence per tested sheep of susceptible prion protein genotype indicates that selective breeding causes the desired population effect.

A single step multiplex immunofluorometric assay for differential diagnosis of BSE and scrapie

Although there is no evidence that the European sheep population has been infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), distinguishing this from scrapie is paramount, given the association between BSE exposure and the human transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE), variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. The capability to differentially diagnose TSEs in sheep is thus essential in order to safeguard the food chain and human health. Biochemical methods for differentiating BSE and scrapie are largely reliant on assessment by Western blot (WB) analysis of the abnormal disease associated prion protein PrP(D) following partial proteolytic digestion. WB banding patterns obtained using a panel of antibodies enable different strain specific conformations of PrP(D) to be distinguished. This approach provides a robust confirmatory test but one which is not appropriate for high throughput screening. A simple, one step, bead array flow cytometry based multiplex immunofluorometric assay has been developed which is suitable for simultaneous screening and confirmation. Using a combination of antibodies directed towards three PrP epitopes enabled differential diagnosis of scrapie and BSE. Proof of principle studies indicated a high predictive value (100%) when applied to brain samples from control animals, BSE infected cattle and sheep naturally infected with scrapie or experimentally infected with BSE.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland.

RESULTS

In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Atypical/Nor98 scrapie in the Basque Country: a case report of eight outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Since 2002, an active surveillance program for transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in small ruminants in European Union countries allowed identification of a considerable number of atypical cases with similarities to the previously identified atypical scrapie cases termed Nor98.

CASE PRESENTATION

Here we report molecular and neuropathological features of eight atypical/Nor98 scrapie cases detected between 2002 and 2009. Significant features of the affected sheep included: their relatively high ages (mean age 7.9 years, range between 4.3 and 12.8), their breed (all Latxa) and their PRNP genotypes (AFRQ/ALRQ, ALRR/ALRQ, AFRQ/AFRQ, AFRQ/AHQ, ALRQ/ALRH, ALRQ/ALRQ). All the sheep were confirmed as atypical scrapie by immunohistochemistry and immunoblotting. Two cases presented more PrP immunolabelling in cerebral cortex than in cerebellum.

CONCLUSIONS

This work indicates that atypical scrapie constitutes the most common small ruminant transmissible spongiform encephalopathy form in Latxa sheep in the Spanish Basque Country. Moreover, a new genotype (ALRQ/ALRH) was found associated to atypical scrapie.

The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review

To deal with the incompleteness of observations and disentangle the complexities of transmission much use has been made of mathematical modelling when investigating the epidemiology of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and, in particular, scrapie. Importantly, these modelling approaches allow the incidence of clinical disease to be related to the underlying prevalence of infection, thereby overcoming one of the major difficulties when studying these diseases. Models have been used to investigate the epidemiology of scrapie within individual flocks and at a regional level; to assess the efficacy of different control strategies, especially selective breeding programmes based on prion protein (PrP) genotype; to interpret the results of scrapie surveillance; and to inform the design of surveillance programmes. Furthermore, mathematical modelling has played an important role when assessing the risk to human health posed by the possible presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. Here, we review the various approaches that have been taken when developing and analysing mathematical models for the epidemiology and control of sheep TSE and assess their impact on our understanding of these diseases. We also identify areas that require further work, discuss future challenges and identify data gaps.

The prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep from positive flocks is not higher than in the general sheep population in 11 European countries

Background

During the last decade, active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been intensive in Europe. In many countries this has led to the detection of cases of atypical scrapie which, unlike classical scrapie, might not be contagious. EU legislation requires, that following detection of a scrapie case, control measures including further testing take place in affected flocks, including the culling of genotype susceptible to classical scrapie. This might result in the detection of additional cases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of additional cases in flocks affected by atypical scrapie using surveillance data collected in Europe in order to ascertain whether atypical scrapie, is contagious.

Results

Questionnaires were used to collect, at national level, the results of active surveillance and testing associated with flock outbreaks in 12 European countries. The mean prevalence of atypical scrapie was 5.5 (5.0-6.0) cases per ten thousand in abattoir surveillance and 8.1 (7.3-9.0) cases per ten thousand in fallen stock. By using meta-analysis, on 11 out of the 12 countries, we found that the probability of detecting additional cases of atypical scrapie in positive flocks was similar to the probability observed in animals slaughtered for human consumption (odds ratio, OR = 1.07, CI_95%: 0.70-1.63) or among fallen stock (OR = 0.78, CI_95%: 0.51-1.2). In contrast, when comparing the two scrapie types, the probability of detecting additional cases in classical scrapie positive flocks was significantly higher than the probability of detecting additional cases in atypical scrapie positive flocks (OR = 32.4, CI_95%: 20.7-50.7).

Conclusions

These results suggest that atypical scrapie is not contagious or has a very low transmissibility under natural conditions compared with classical scrapie. Furthermore this study stressed the importance of standardised data collection to make good use of the analyses undertaken by European countries in their efforts to control atypical and classical scrapie.

A Retrospective Immunohistochemical Study Reveals Atypical Scrapie has Existed in the United Kingdom since at Least 1987

Atypical scrapie is a relatively recent discovery, and it was unknown whether it was a new phenomenon or whether it had existed undetected in the United Kingdom national flock. Before 1998, the routine statutory diagnosis of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) in sheep relied on the presence of TSE vacuolation in the brainstem. This method would not have been effective for the detection of atypical scrapie. Currently, immunohistochemistry (IHC) and Western blot are commonly used for the differential diagnosis of classical and atypical scrapie. The IHC pattern of PrP d deposition in atypical scrapie is very different from that in classical scrapie using the same antibody. It is thus possible that because of a lack of suitable diagnostic techniques and awareness of this form of the disease, historic cases of atypical scrapie remain undiagnosed. Immunohistochemistry was performed on selected formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) blocks of ovine brain from the Veterinary Laboratories Agency archives that were submitted for various reasons, including suspect neurological disorders, between 1980 and 1989. It was found that PrP d deposits in a single case were consistent with atypical scrapie. A method was developed to obtain a PrP genotype from FFPE tissues and was applied to material from this single case, which was shown to be AHQ/AHQ. This animal was a scrapie suspect from 1987, but diagnosis was not confirmed by the available techniques at that time.

Transmissibility of atypical scrapie in ovine transgenic mice: major effects of host prion protein expression and donor prion genotype

Atypical scrapie or Nor98 has been identified as a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) that is clearly distinguishable from classical scrapie and BSE, notably regarding the biochemical features of the protease-resistant prion protein PrP^res and the genetic factors involved in susceptibility to the disease. In this study we transmitted the disease from a series of 12 French atypical scrapie isolates in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4) overexpressing in the brain ∼0.25, 1.5 or 6× the levels of the PrP^ARQ ovine prion protein under the control of the neuron-specific enolase promoter. We used an approach based on serum PrP^c measurements that appeared to reflect the different PrP^c expression levels in the central nervous system. We found that transmission of atypical scrapie, much more than in classical scrapie or BSE, was strongly influenced by the PrP^c expression levels of TgOvPrP4 inoculated mice. Whereas TgOvPrP4 mice overexpressing ∼6× the normal PrP^c level died after a survival periods of 400 days, those with ∼1.5× the normal PrP^c level died at around 700 days. The transmission of atypical scrapie in TgOvPrP4 mouse line was also strongly influenced by the prnp genotypes of the animal source of atypical scrapie. Isolates carrying the AF₁₄₁RQ or AHQ alleles, associated with increased disease susceptibility in the natural host, showed a higher transmissibility in TgOvPrP4 mice. The biochemical analysis of PrP^res in TgOvPrP4 mouse brains showed a fully conserved pattern, compared to that in the natural host, with three distinct PrP^res products. Our results throw light on the transmission features of atypical scrapie and suggest that the risk of transmission is intrinsically lower than that of classical scrapie or BSE, especially in relation to the expression level of the prion protein.

Nor98 scrapie identified in the United States

A distinct strain of scrapie identified in sheep of Norway in 1998 has since been identified in numerous countries throughout Europe. The disease is known as Nor98 or Nor98-like scrapie, among other names. Distinctions between classic scrapie and Nor98 scrapie are made based on histopathology and immunodiagnostic results. There are also differences in the epidemiology, typical signalment, and likelihood of clinical signs being observed. In addition, sheep that have genotypes associated with resistance to classic scrapie are not spared from Nor98 disease. The various differences between classic and Nor98 scrapie have been consistently reported in the vast majority of cases described across Europe. The current study describes in detail the pathologic changes and diagnostic results of the first 6 cases of Nor98 scrapie disease diagnosed in sheep of the United States.

Diagnosis of the first cases of scrapie in Poland

This is the first report of cases of scrapie in Poland. The disease was an atypical phenotype, diagnosed in two aged sheep which were found dead. Brainstem samples from both animals were positive on the applied ELISA rapid test, while the confirmatory immunoblot indicated abnormal banding patterns of protease resistant prion protein (PrP(res)). The genotypes of these sheep were ALRQ/ALHQ and ALRQ/ALRR. The absence of premonitory clinical signs, the advanced age of the affected sheep, the higher concentration of PrP(res) in the cerebellum relative to the obex, the unusual banding profile of the prion protein and its relatively low resistance to proteolytic degradation confirmed the diagnosis of atypical scrapie (Nor98-like) in both cases.

Discrepant epidemiological patterns between classical and atypical scrapie in sheep flocks under French TSE control measures

The occurrence of secondary cases of atypical and classical scrapie was examined in 340 outbreaks of atypical and 296 of classical sheep scrapie detected in France during active surveillance programmes between 2002 and 2007. The prevalence of atypical scrapie in these flocks was 0.05% under selective culling and 0.07% under intensified monitoring i.e. not significantly different from that detected during active surveillance of the general population (P>0.5), whereas these figures were much higher for classical scrapie (3.67% and 0.25%, respectively, P<10(-5)). In addition the number of atypical scrapie cases per outbreak did not indicate clustering. The results suggest that atypical scrapie occurs spontaneously or is not particularly contagious, and that the control measures in force allowed appropriate control of classical scrapie but were not more efficient than active surveillance in detecting cases of atypical scrapie.

A case-control study on the origin of atypical scrapie in sheep, France

Risk factors for this disease suggest a noninfectious origin influenced by genetic and metabolic factors.

A matched case–control study (95 cases and 220 controls) was designed to study risk factors for atypical scrapie in sheep in France. We analyzed contacts with animals from other flocks, lambing and feeding practices, and exposure to toxic substances. Data on the prnp genotype were collected for some case and control animals and included in a complementary analysis. Sheep dairy farms had a higher risk for scrapie (odds ratio [OR] 15.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.3–69.7). Lower risk was associated with organic farms (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.02–1.26), feeding corn silage (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.05–0.53), and feeding vitamin and mineral supplements (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.32–1.14). Genetic effects were quantitatively important but only marginally changed estimates of other variables. We did not find any risk factor associated with an infectious origin of scrapie. Atypical scrapie could be a spontaneous disease influenced by genetic and metabolic factors.

State-of-the-art review of goat TSE in the European Union, with special emphasis on PRNP genetics and epidemiology

Scrapie is a fatal, neurodegenerative disease of sheep and goats. It is also the earliest known member in the family of diseases classified as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) or prion diseases, which includes Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), and chronic wasting disease in cervids. The recent revelation of naturally occurring BSE in a goat has brought the issue of TSE in goats to the attention of the public. In contrast to scrapie, BSE presents a proven risk to humans. The risk of goat BSE, however, is difficult to evaluate, as our knowledge of TSE in goats is limited. Natural caprine scrapie has been discovered throughout Europe, with reported cases generally being greatest in countries with the highest goat populations. As with sheep scrapie, susceptibility and incubation period duration of goat scrapie are most likely controlled by the prion protein (PrP) gene (PRNP). Like the PRNP of sheep, the caprine PRNP shows significantly greater variability than that of cattle and humans. Although PRNP variability in goats differs from that observed in sheep, the two species share several identical alleles. Moreover, while the ARR allele associated with enhancing resistance in sheep is not present in the goat PRNP, there is evidence for the existence of other PrP variants related to resistance. This review presents the current knowledge of the epidemiology of caprine scrapie within the major European goat populations, and compiles the current data on genetic variability of PRNP.

Comparison of strategies for substantiating freedom from scrapie in a sheep flock

Background

The public health threat represented by a potential circulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy agent in sheep population has led European animal health authorities to launch large screening and genetic selection programmes. If demonstrated, such a circulation would have dramatic economic consequences for sheep breeding sector. In this context, it is important to evaluate the feasibility of qualification procedures that would allow sheep breeders demonstrating their flock is free from scrapie. Classical approaches, based on surveys designed to detect disease presence, do not account for scrapie specificities: the genetic variations of susceptibility and the absence of live diagnostic test routinely available. Adapting these approaches leads to a paradoxical situation in which a greater amount of testing is needed to substantiate disease freedom in genetically resistant flocks than in susceptible flocks, whereas probability of disease freedom is a priori higher in the former than in the latter. The goal of this study was to propose, evaluate and compare several qualification strategies for demonstrating a flock is free from scrapie.

Results

A probabilistic framework was defined that accounts for scrapie specificities and allows solving the preceding paradox. Six qualification strategies were defined that combine genotyping data, diagnostic tests results and flock pedigree. These were compared in two types of simulated flocks: resistant and susceptible flocks. Two strategies allowed demonstrating disease freedom in several years, for the majority of simulated flocks: a strategy in which all the flock animals are genotyped, and a strategy in which only founders animals are genotyped, the flock pedigree being known. In both cases, diagnostic tests are performed on culled animals. The less costly strategy varied according to the genetic context (resistant or susceptible) and to the relative costs of a genotyping exam and of a diagnostic test.

Conclusion

This work demonstrates that combining data sources allows substantiating a flock is free from scrapie within a reasonable time frame. Qualification schemes could thus be a useful tool for voluntary or mandatory scrapie control programmes. However, there is no general strategy that would always minimize the costs and choice of the strategy should be adapted to local genetic conditions.

Prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie in Great Britain, 1993–2007

Extensive surveillance for classical scrapie has been carried out in Great Britain since 1993, the results of which can be used for monitoring the effect of control measures introduced since 2001. A back-calculation approach was used to estimate the prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie, which integrates data on reported clinical cases (1993–2007) and the results of fallen stock and abattoir surveys (2002–2007). The prevalence of classical scrapie in GB was fairly constant until 2003, although the estimates depended on assumptions made about the performance of diagnostic tests used in the surveys. If infected animals could be detected in the final quarter of the incubation period, the estimated prevalence was 0·6–0·7%, while if they could be detected in the final half of the incubation period, it was 0·3–0·4%. Between 2003 and 2007 the prevalence declined by around 40%, and the magnitude of the reduction was independent of assumptions made about the diagnostic tests.

Within-holding prevalence of sheep classical scrapie in Great Britain

Background

Data from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS), part of the compulsory eradication measures for the control of scrapie in the EU, have been used to estimate the within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain (GB). Specifically data from one of the testing routes within the CSFS have been used; the initial cull (IC), whereby two options can be applied: the whole flock cull option by which the entire flock is depopulated, and the genotyping and cull of certain genotypes.

Results

Between April 2005 and September 2007, 25,316 suitable samples, submitted from 411 flocks in 213 scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain, were tested for scrapie. The predicted within-holding prevalence for the initial cull was 0.65% (95% CI: 0.55–0.75). For the whole cull option was 0.47% (95% CI: 0.32–0.68) and for the genotype and cull or mixed option (both options applied in different flocks of the same holding), the predicted within-holding prevalence was 0.7% (95% CI: 0.6–0.83). There were no significant differences in the within-flock prevalence between countries (England, Scotland and Wales) or between CSFS holdings by the surveillance stream that detected the index case. The number of CSFS flocks on a holding did not affect the overall within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie.

Conclusion

These estimates are important in the discussion of the epidemiological implications of the current EU testing programme of scrapie-affected flocks and to inform epidemiological and mathematical models. Furthermore, these estimates may provide baseline data to assist the design of future surveillance activities and control policies with the aim to increase their efficiency.