The role of conflict in the rapid fertility decline in Eritrea and prospects for the future

The large fertility decline observed in Eritrea between the mid-1990s and the early part of the new century is examined using data from two detailed national household surveys. Little evidence is found that this decrease infertility signals the beginning of a sustained decline. Rather, the results indicate that one of the outcomes of the military mobilization and displacement associated with the 1998-2000 border conflict with Ethiopia was a steep reduction in the proportion of women exposed to the risk of pregnancy. Part of this reduction was due to delayed age at marriage, but it came about largely because married women were less likely to be living with their husbands in 2002 than in 1995. Projections of the number of births that could occur if women implement their stated reproductive intentions and a postwar "baby boom" results show that the health system may be facing an increased demand for child health services over the next several years.

The proximate determinants of the decline to below-replacement fertility in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Between 1990 and 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Ethiopia declined moderately from 6.4 to 5.9 children per woman of reproductive age. During the same period, the TFR in the capital city of Addis Ababa declined from 3.1 to 1.9 children per woman. Even more striking than the magnitude of this decline is that it occurred in the absence of a strong and effective national family planning program. In this study, the components of this fertility decline are identified using the Bongaarts framework of the proximate determinants of fertility. The results of a decomposition analysis indicate that a decrease in the age-specific proportions of women who are married, followed by an increase in contraceptive use are the most important mechanisms by which fertility has declined in Addis Ababa. Poor employment prospects and relatively high housing costs are likely factors that encourage couples to delay marriage and reduce marital fertility.

War, peace, and fertility in Angola

Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in 1996, some two years after the end of a major outbreak of war, we examine the impact of war on the timing of recent births and war-related differences in reproductive preferences in Angola. We find evidence of a wartime drop and a postwar rebound in fertility, but these trends vary greatly, depending on the type and degree of exposure to war and on women's socioeconomic characteristics. At the same time, variations by parity are nonsignificant. In fertility preferences, the relative antinatalism of Angola's most modernized urban area stands out, but outside this area, differences between areas that were more and less affected by war are also noticeable. We offer interpretations of our findings and outline their implications for Angola's demographic future and demographic trends in similar settings.

The effects of breastfeeding and birth spacing on infant and early childhood mortality in Ethiopia

Research conducted in developing countries clearly demonstrates the positive effects of breastfeeding and widely spaced births on infant survival. The evidence is less clear as to whether these beneficial effects extend into early childhood, and under what conditions. In this paper we examine the effects of breastfeeding and birth spacing on neonatal, post-neonatal, and early childhood mortality in Ethiopia using data from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey. Our results provide clear evidence that the increased mortality risks associated with closely-spaced births continue beyond the first year of life into early childhood. Competition between siblings for food and maternal attention is the most probable explanation for this finding. We also find that breastfeeding beyond the second year of life is associated with higher mortality. Given that delayed weaning in Ethiopia is a common response to food shortages, we interpret this finding as further evidence of the negative consequences of resource deprivation for child survival.

Household organization, women's autonomy, and contraceptive behavior in southern Ethiopia

The Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's Region of Ethiopia (SNNPR) is home to 11 million people constituting more than 45 language and ethnic groups, most of whom live in extremely poor rural communities. Data for currently married, fecund women aged 15-49 from demographic surveys conducted in the SNNPR in 1990 and 1997 are used to investigate contraceptive knowledge and communication, and the use and future need for family planning services in this population. This study focuses on how these processes are affected by household organization and women's status, and on their implications for population policies and programs. Considerations of the implications of these results for understanding the fertility transition of a highly diverse African population under severe stress are presented. Although household extension and polygamy characterize one-third of the women sampled, they do not affect the women's contraceptive behavior. Women's literacy and autonomy are, by far, the most significant forces in the movement toward lower fertility in the region.