Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals

The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate.

Lethal control of an apex predator has unintended cascading effects on forest mammal assemblages

Disruption to species-interaction networks caused by irruptions of herbivores and mesopredators following extirpation of apex predators is a global driver of ecosystem reorganization and biodiversity loss. Most studies of apex predators' ecological roles focus on effects arising from their interactions with herbivores or mesopredators in isolation, but rarely consider how the effects of herbivores and mesopredators interact. Here, we provide evidence that multiple cascade pathways induced by lethal control of an apex predator, the dingo, drive unintended shifts in forest ecosystem structure. We compared mammal assemblages and understorey structure at seven sites in southern Australia. Each site comprised an area where dingoes were poisoned and an area without control. The effects of dingo control on mammals scaled with body size. Activity of herbivorous macropods, arboreal mammals and a mesopredator, the red fox, were greater, but understorey vegetation sparser and abundances of small mammals lower, where dingoes were controlled. Structural equation modelling suggested that both predation by foxes and depletion of understorey vegetation by macropods were related to small mammal decline at poisoned sites. Our study suggests that apex predators' suppressive effects on herbivores and mesopredators occur simultaneously and should be considered in tandem in order to appreciate the extent of apex predators' indirect effects.

Risk-sensitive reproductive allocation: fitness consequences of body mass losses in two contrasting environments

For long-lived organisms, the fitness value of survival is greater than that of current reproduction. Asymmetric fitness rewards suggest that organisms inhabiting unpredictable environments should adopt a risk-sensitive life history, predicting that it is adaptive to allocate resources to increase their own body reserves at the expense of reproduction. We tested this using data from reindeer populations inhabiting contrasting environments and using winter body mass development as a proxy for the combined effect of winter severity and density dependence. Individuals in good and harsh environments responded similarly: Females who lost large amounts of winter body mass gained more body mass the coming summer compared with females losing less mass during winter. Additionally, females experienced a cost of reproduction: On average, barren females gained more body mass than lactating females. Winter body mass development positively affected both the females' reproductive success and offspring body mass. Finally, we discuss the relevance of our findings with respect to scenarios for future climate change.

A seasonal, density-dependent model for the management of an invasive weed

The population effects of harvest depend on complex interactions between density dependence, seasonality, stage structure, and management timing. Here we present a periodic nonlinear matrix population model that incorporates seasonal density dependence with stage-selective and seasonally selective harvest. To this model, we apply newly developed perturbation analyses to determine how population densities respond to changes in harvest and demographic parameters. We use the model to examine the effects of popular control strategies and demographic perturbations on the invasive weed garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). We find that seasonality is a major factor in harvest outcomes, because population dynamics may depend significantly on both the season of management and the season of observation. Strategies that reduce densities in one season can drive increases in another, with strategies giving positive sensitivities of density in the target seasons leading to compensatory effects that invasive species managers should avoid. Conversely, demographic parameters to which density is very elastic (e.g., seeding survival, second-year rosette spring survival, and the flowering to fruiting adult transition for maximum summer densities) may indicate promising management targets.

Disturbances, organisms and ecosystems: a global change perspective

The present text exposes a theory of the role of disturbances in the assemblage and evolution of species within ecosystems, based principally, but not exclusively, on terrestrial ecosystems. Two groups of organisms, doted of contrasted strategies when faced with environmental disturbances, are presented, based on the classical r-K dichotomy, but enriched with more modern concepts from community and evolutionary ecology. Both groups participate in the assembly of known animal, plant, and microbial communities, but with different requirements about environmental fluctuations. The so-called "civilized" organisms are doted with efficient anticipatory mechanisms, allowing them to optimize from an energetic point of view their performances in a predictable environment (stable or fluctuating cyclically at the scale of life expectancy), and they developed advanced specializations in the course of evolutionary time. On the opposite side, the so-called "barbarians" are weakly efficient in a stable environment because they waste energy for foraging, growth, and reproduction, but they are well adapted to unpredictably changing conditions, in particular during major ecological crises. Both groups of organisms succeed or alternate each other in the course of spontaneous or geared successional processes, as well as in the course of evolution. The balance of "barbarians" against "civilized" strategies within communities is predicted to shift in favor of the first type under present-day anthropic pressure, exemplified among others by climate warming, land use change, pollution, and biological invasions.

Impacts of introduced European hedgehogs on endemic skinks and weta in tussock grassland

Context Control of introduced pest species is based on the premise that there is a relationship between pest abundance and impact, but this relationship is rarely defined. Aim We investigated the impacts of introduced European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) on two species of small endemic skink (Oligosoma spp.) and flightless, nocturnal endemic orthopteran ground weta (Hemiandrus spp.), using an enclosure-based experimental manipulation of hedgehog density in tussock grasslands in the South Island of New Zealand. Methods We used capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate the densities of skinks before and after exposure to a range of hedgehog densities over a 3-month period and also compared changes in indices of abundance of skink demographic groups and ground weta. Key results Faecal analysis confirmed that hedgehogs consumed skinks and invertebrates in the enclosures. The proportional change between capture sessions in numbers of captured juvenile McCann’s skinks (O. maccanni) declined with increasing hedgehog density. Similarly, the proportional change in the numbers of ground weta encountered in pitfall traps showed a highly significant negative relationship with increasing hedgehog density. Total species abundances and numbers in other demographic skink groups did not change significantly in relation to hedgehog density. For overall skink abundance estimates, there was an apparent trend suggesting that changes in abundance were more negative with increasing hedgehog density, but this did not reach statistical significance for either skink species. Conclusions Our results confirmed that hedgehogs are important predators of small native fauna, but suggested that highly abundant prey populations may be buffered against significant impacts. Implications Less abundant prey and some demographic groups within populations, however, may be at significant risk from hedgehog predation.

Compensation and additivity of anthropogenic mortality: life-history effects and review of methods

Demographic compensation, the increase in average individual performance following a perturbation that reduces population size, and, its opposite, demographic overadditivity (or superadditivity) are central processes in both population ecology and wildlife management. A continuum of population responses to changes in cause-specific mortality exists, of which additivity and complete compensation constitute particular points. The position of a population on that continuum influences its ability to sustain exploitation and predation. Here I describe a method for quantifying where a population is on the continuum. Based on variance-covariance formulae, I describe a simple metric for the rate of compensation-additivity. I synthesize the results from 10 wildlife capture-recapture monitoring programmes from the literature and online databases, reviewing current statistical methods and the treatment of common sources of bias. These results are used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of life-history strategy, population density, average cause-specific mortality and age class on the rate of compensation-additivity. This comparative analysis highlights that long-lived species compensate less than short-lived species and that populations below their carrying capacity compensate less than those above.

Decoupling of component and ensemble density feedbacks in birds and mammals

A component density feedback represents the effect of change in population size on single demographic rates, whereas an ensemble density feedback captures that effect on the overall growth rate of a population. Given that a population's growth rate is a synthesis of the interplay of all demographic rates operating in a population, we test the hypothesis that the strength of ensemble density feedback must augment with increasing strength of component density feedback, using long-term censuses of population size, fertility, and survival rates of 109 bird and mammal populations (97 species). We found that compensatory and depensatory component feedbacks were common (each detected in approximately 50% of the demographic rates). However, component feedback strength only explained <10% of the variation in ensemble feedback strength. To explain why, we illustrate the different sources of decoupling between component and ensemble feedbacks. We argue that the management of anthropogenic impacts on populations using component feedbacks alone is ill-advised, just as managing on the basis of ensemble feedbacks without a mechanistic understanding of the contributions made by its components and environmental variability can lead to suboptimal decisions.

Density dependence: an ecological Tower of Babel

The concept of density dependence represents the effect of changing population size on demographic rates and captures the demographic role of social and trophic mechanisms (e.g. competition, cooperation, parasitism or predation). Ecologists have coined more than 60 terms to denote different statistical and semantic properties of this concept, resulting in a formidable lexicon of synonymies and polysemies. We have examined the vocabulary of density dependence used in the modern ecological literature from the foundational lexicon developed by Smith, Allee, Haldane, Neave and Varley. A few simple rules suffice to abate terminological inconsistency and to enhance the biological meaning of this important concept. Correct citation of original references by ecologists and research journals could ameliorate terminological standards in our discipline and avoid linguistic confusion of mathematically and theoretically complex patterns.

Individual variation and population dynamics: lessons from a simple system

The mapping of environment, through variation in individuals' life histories, to dynamics can be complex and often poorly known. Consequently, it is not clear how important it is dynamically. To explore this, I incorporated lessons from an empirical system, a soil mite, into an individual-based model. Individuals compete for resource and allocate this according to eight 'genetic' rules that specify investment in growth or reserves (which influences survival or fecundity), size at maturation and reproductive allocation. Density dependence, therefore, emerges from competition for food, limiting individual's growth and fecundity. We use this model to examine the role that genetic and phenotypically plastic variation plays in dynamics, by fixing phenotypes, by allowing phenotypes to vary plastically and by creating genetic variation between individuals. Variation, and how it arises, influences short- and long-run dynamics in a way comparable in magnitude with halving food supply. In particular, by switching variation on and off, it is possible to identify a range of processes necessary to capture the dynamics of the 'full model'. Exercises like this can help identify key processes and parameters, but a concerted effort is needed across many different systems to search for shared understanding of both process and modelling.

Seven considerations about dingoes as biodiversity engineers: the socioecological niches of dogs in Australia

Australian dingoes have recently been suggested as a tool to aid biodiversity conservation through the reversal or prevention of trophic cascades and mesopredator release. However, at least seven ecological and sociological considerations must be addressed before dog populations are positively managed.Domestication and feralisation of dingoes have resulted in behavioural changes that continue to expose a broad range of native and introduced fauna to predation.Dingoes and other dogs are classic mesopredators, while humans are the apex predator and primary ecosystem engineers in Australia.Anthropogenic landscape changes could prevent modern dingoes from fulfilling their pre-European roles.Dingoes are known to exploit many of the same species they are often presumed to ‘protect’, predisposing them to present direct risks to many threatened species.The assertion that contemporary dog control facilitates the release of mesopredators disregards the realities of effective dog control, which simultaneously reduces fox and dog abundance and is unlikely to enable increases in fox abundance.The processes affecting threatened fauna are likely a combination of both top-down and bottom-up effects, which will not be solved or reversed by concentrating efforts on managing only predator effects.Most importantly, human social and economic niches are highly variable across the ecosystems where dingoes are present or proposed. Human perceptions will ultimately determine acceptance of positive dingo management.Outside of an adaptive management framework, positively managing dingoes while ignoring these seven considerations is unlikely to succeed in conserving native faunal biodiversity but is likely to have negative effects on ecological, social and economic values.

Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination of different factors that interrelate both directly and through density dependence. This highlights the importance of performing more comprehensive studies to reveal combined effects and complex relationships that help us to better understand the mechanisms underlying population dynamics.

Survival rates in a small hibernator, the edible dormouse: a comparison across Europe

Understanding how local environmental factors lead to temporal variability of vital rates and to plasticity of life history tactics is one of the central questions in population ecology. We used long-term capture-recapture data from five populations of a small hibernating rodent, the edible dormouse Glis glis, collected over a large geographical range across Europe, to determine and analyze both seasonal patterns of local survival and their relation to reproductive activity. In all populations studied, survival was lowest in early summer, higher in late summer and highest during hibernation in winter. In reproductive years survival was always lower than in non-reproductive years, and females had higher survival rates than males. Very high survival rates during winter indicate that edible dormice rarely die from starvation due to insufficient energy reserves during the hibernation period. Increased mortality in early summer was most likely caused by high predation risk and unmet energy demands. Those effects have probably an even stronger impact in reproductive years, in which dormice were more active. Although these patterns could be found in all areas, there were also considerable differences in average survival rates, with resulting differences in mean lifetime reproductive success between populations. Our results suggest that edible dormice have adapted their life history strategies to maximize lifetime reproductive success depending on the area specific frequency of seeding events of trees producing energy-rich seeds.

Differential effects of weather and natural enemies on coexisting aphid populations

Study of mechanisms responsible for regulating populations of living organisms is essential for a better comprehension of the structure of biological communities and evolutionary forces in nature. Aphids (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha) comprise a large and economically important group of phytophagous insects distributed worldwide. Previous studies determined that density-dependent mechanisms play an important role in regulating their populations. However, only a few of those studies identified specific factors responsible for the observed regulation. Time series data used in this study originated from the untreated control plots that were a part of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) insecticide trials in northern Maine from 1971 to 2004. The data set contained information on population densities of three potato-colonizing aphid species (buckthorn aphid, Aphis nasturtii; potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae; and green peach aphid, Myzus persicae) and their natural enemies. We used path analysis to explore effects of weather and natural enemies on the intrinsic growth rates of aphid populations. Weather factors considered in our analyses contributed to the regulation of aphid populations, either directly or through natural enemies. However, direct weather effects were in most cases detectable only at P ≤ 0.10. Potato aphids were negatively affected by both fungal disease and predators, although buckthorn aphids were negatively affected by predators only. Parasitoids did not have a noticeable effect on the growth of any of the three aphid species. Growth of green peach aphid populations was negatively influenced by interspecific interactions with the other two aphid species. Differential population regulation mechanisms detected in the current study might at least partially explain coexistence of three ecologically similar aphid species sharing the same host plant.

Reduced population control of an insect pest in managed willow monocultures

Background

There is a general belief that insect outbreak risk is higher in plant monocultures than in natural and more diverse habitats, although empirical studies investigating this relationship are lacking. In this study, using density data collected over seven years at 40 study sites, we compare the temporal population variability of the leaf beetle Phratora vulgatissima between willow plantations and natural willow habitats.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study was conducted in 1999–2005. The density of adult P. vulgatissima was estimated in the spring every year by a knock-down sampling technique. We used two measures of population variability, CV and PV, to compare temporal variations in leaf beetle density between plantation and natural habitat. Relationships between density and variability were also analyzed to discern potential underlying processes behind stability in the two systems. The results showed that the leaf beetle P. vulgatissima had a greater temporal population variability and outbreak risk in willow plantations than in natural willow habitats. We hypothesize that the greater population stability observed in the natural habitat was due to two separate processes operating at different levels of beetle density. First, stable low population equilibrium can be achieved by the relatively high density of generalist predators observed in natural stands. Second, stable equilibrium can also be imposed at higher beetle density due to competition, which occurs through depletion of resources (plant foliage) in the natural habitat. In willow plantations, competition is reduced mainly because plants grow close enough for beetle larvae to move to another plant when foliage is consumed.

Conclusion/Significance

To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study confirming that insect pest outbreak risk is higher in monocultures. The study suggests that comparative studies of insect population dynamics in different habitats may improve our ability to predict insect pest outbreaks and could facilitate the development of sustainable pest control in managed systems.

Role of predation and hunting on eastern cottontail mortality at Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts

The degree that hunting may influence game populations depends on whether hunting mortality is additional to (additive) or replaces (compensatory) natural-caused mortalities. In response to limited information on the effects of exploitation on eastern cottontail ( Sylvilagus floridanus (J.A. Allen, 1890)) populations within Cape Cod National Seashore (CCNS), we initiated an investigation of cause-specific mortality using transmitter-equipped cottontails in hunted and nonhunted areas as a way to examine the additive versus compensatory aspect of hunting. Predation caused >70% of all deaths, whereas hunting caused 10% of deaths in the areas sampled. Survival rate was substantially lower among hunted sites (0.05) than at nonhunted sites (0.19) during the winter–spring of year 1, but there was no difference between hunted (0.33) and nonhunted (0.40) sites during year 2. Lower survival in year 1 was likely due to deep and persistent snow that increased vulnerability to predation and probably reduced the prospect for hunting mortalities to be compensated by reductions among other mortality factors. However, at least partial compensation apparently occurred during year 2 when winter weather was less severe. Cottontails at CCNS are near the northern edge of their geographic range and therefore may be ultimately limited by severe weather conditions. Compared with predation, we do not believe that the current levels and distributions of hunting influence cottontail populations at CCNS.

Overcompensatory population dynamic responses to environmental stochasticity

1. To quantify the interactions between density-dependent, population regulation and density-independent limitation, we studied the time-series dynamics of an experimental laboratory insect microcosm system in which both environmental noise and resource limitation were manipulated. 2. A hierarchical Bayesian state-space approach is presented through which it is feasible to capture all sources of uncertainty, including observation error to accurately quantify the density dependence operating on the dynamics. 3. The regulatory processes underpinning the dynamics of two different bruchid beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis) are principally determined by environmental conditions, with fluctuations in abundance explained in terms of changes in overcompensatory dynamics and stochastic processes. 4. A general, stochastic population model is developed to explore the link between abundance fluctuations and the interaction between density dependence and noise. Taking account of time-lags in population regulation can substantially increase predicted population fluctuations resulting from underlying noise processes.

HABITAT COMPLEXITY MODIFIES POST-SETTLEMENT MORTALITY AND RECRUITMENT DYNAMICS OF A MARINE FISH

For species that have an open population structure, local population size may be strongly influenced by a combination of propagule supply and post-settlement survival. While it is widely recognized that supply of larvae (or recruits) is variable and that variable recruitment may affect the relative contribution of pre- and post-settlement factors, less effort has been made to quantify how variation in the strength of post-settlement mortality (particularly density-dependent mortality) will affect the importance of processes that determine population size. In this study, I examined the effects of habitat complexity on mortality of blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) within nearshore reefs off central California. I first tested whether variation in habitat complexity (measured as three-dimensional complexity of rocky substrate) affected the magnitude of both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. I then used limitation analysis to quantify how variation in habitat complexity alters the relative influence of recruitment, density-independent mortality, and density-dependent mortality in determining local population size. Increased habitat complexity was associated with a reduction in both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. At low levels of habitat complexity, limitation analysis revealed that mortality was strong and recruitment had relatively little influence on population size. However, as habitat complexity increased, recruitment became more important. At the highest levels of habitat complexity, limitation by recruitment was substantial, although density-dependent mortality was ultimately the largest constraint on population size. In high-complexity habitats, population dynamics may strongly reflect variation in recruitment even though fluctuations may be dampened by density-dependent mortality. By affecting both density-independent and density-dependent mortality, variation in habitat complexity may result in qualitative changes in the dynamics of populations. These findings suggest that the relative importance of pre- vs. post-settlement factors may be determined by quantifiable habitat features, rather than ambient recruitment level alone. Because the magnitude of recruitment fluctuations can affect species coexistence and the persistence of populations, habitat-driven changes in population dynamics may have important consequences for both community structure and population viability.

Birds of prey as limiting factors of gamebird populations in Europe: a review

Whether predators can limit their prey has been a topic of scientific debate for decades. Traditionally it was believed that predators take only wounded, sick, old or otherwise low-quality individuals, and thus have little impact on prey populations. However, there is increasing evidence that, at least under certain circumstances, vertebrate predators may indeed limit prey numbers. This potential role of predators as limiting factors of prey populations has created conflicts between predators and human hunters, because the hunters may see predators as competitors for the same resources. A particularly acute conflict has emerged over the past few decades between gamebird hunters and birds of prey in Europe. As a part of a European-wide research project, we reviewed literature on the relationships between birds of prey and gamebirds. We start by analysing available data on the diets of 52 European raptor and owl species. There are some 32 species, mostly specialist predators feeding on small mammals, small passerine birds or insects, which never or very rarely include game animals (e.g. hares, rabbits, gamebirds) in their diet. A second group (20 species) consists of medium-sized and large raptors which prey on game, but for which the proportion in the diet varies temporally and spatially. Only three raptor species can have rather large proportions of gamebirds in their diet, and another seven species may utilise gamebirds locally to a great extent. We point out that the percentage of a given prey species in the diet of an avian predator does not necessarily reflect the impact of that predator on densities of prey populations. Next, we summarise available data on the numerical responses of avian predators to changing gamebird numbers. In half of these studies, no numerical response was found, while in the remainder a response was detected such that either raptor density or breeding success increased with density of gamebirds. Data on the functional responses of raptors were scarce. Most studies of the interaction between raptors and gamebird populations give some estimate of the predation rate (per cent of prey population taken by predator), but less often do they evaluate the subsequent reduction in the pre-harvest population or the potential limiting effect on breeding numbers. The few existing studies indicate that, under certain conditions, raptor predation may limit gamebird populations and reduce gamebird harvests. However, the number and extent of such studies are too modest to draw firm conclusions. Furthermore, their geographical bias to northern Europe, where predator-prey communities are typically simpler than in the south, precludes extrapolation to more diverse southern European ecosystems. There is an urgent need to develop further studies, particularly in southern Europe, to determine the functional and numerical responses of raptors to gamebird populations in species and environments other than those already evaluated in existing studies. Furthermore, additional field experiments are needed in which raptor and possibly also mammalian predator numbers are manipulated on a sufficiently large spatial and temporal scale. Other aspects that have been little studied are the role of predation by the non-breeding part of the raptor population, or floaters, on the breeding success and survival of gamebirds, as well as the effect of intra-guild predation. Finally there is a need for further research on practical methods to reduce raptor predation on gamebirds and thus reduce conflict between raptor conservation and gamebird management.

Causes of offspring mortality in the Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella: the interaction of density dependence and ecosystem variability

Rates of pup production and causes of pup mortality, recorded in a designated study colony on Bird Island, South Georgia, from 1989 to 2003, were used to evaluate the factors influencing the growth of the population of Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella (Peters, 1875). The mean number of pups produced per year was 680 (range 444–822) with a mean survival rate of 77.6% (range 52.6%–92.8%). Starvation, arising from reduced food availability within the mothers' foraging area, was the most frequently recorded cause of death and was positively correlated with the overall rate of pup survival, although it showed no relationship with the number of pups produced. However, traumatic injury showed a local relationship with seal density, increasing significantly with increasing numbers of seals born. This suggests that environmental processes that reduce the availability of prey to lactating mothers, rather than space limitation within colonies, are the limiting factor in the population increase of Antarctic fur seals at South Georgia. The spatial scales over which such processes operate, relative to the local-scale effects of densities of animals within colonies, have important implications for the future expansion of the population and the resultant trophodynamic interactions.