Limitations of clinical and sonographic estimates of birth weight: experience with 1034 parturients

Association between level of delivery hospital and neonatal outcomes among South Carolina Medicaid recipients

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between level of delivery hospital and neonatal mortality rate, length of stay, and Medicaid reimbursement.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of 2560 infants with birth weights between 500 and 1499 g who were born between 1991 and 1995 to South Carolina mothers and whose care was covered by Medicaid.

RESULTS

The relative risk of neonatal death for infants born in level I and II hospitals (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.2) but not level II hospitals with 24-hour neonatology coverage (relative risk, 1.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-1.9) was higher than that for infants born in level III hospitals. Compared with infants born in level III hospitals mean length of stay was longer and Medicaid reimbursement was similar for infants born in level I and II hospitals. Among infants born in level II hospitals with 24-hour neonatology coverage length of stay was shorter and Medicaid reimbursement was lower.

CONCLUSION

Infants born in level I and II hospitals had higher neonatal mortality rates and longer stays than did infants born in level III hospitals, despite similar Medicaid reimbursement.

Umbilical vein blood flow in growth-restricted fetuses

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether umbilical blood flow is reduced in a subset of growth-restricted (IUGR) fetuses when expressed as flow per kilogram or flow per unit of specific sonographic fetal measurements.

DESIGN

Prospective.

SUBJECTS

Thirty-seven IUGR fetuses were examined by Doppler ultrasound within 4 h of the last non-stress test prior to delivery. This population was divided into three groups of varying clinical severity according to the characteristics of umbilical arterial pulsatility index (PI) and heart rate.

METHODS

Absolute and weight-specific umbilical vein (UV) flow were calculated from measurements of UV diameter and UV mean velocity. Umbilical vein diameter, velocity and UV flow were calculated also per unit head (HC) or abdominal circumference (AC) and correlated with gestational age.

RESULTS

Umbilical vein flow (UVf) per kilogram fetal weight was significantly lower in the more severe IUGR fetuses (abnormal umbilical arterial PI) than in normally grown comparable fetuses (P < 0.001). Umbilical vein flow per unit HC was significantly lower in the three groups (P < 0.001) than in the control population. The UV diameter/HC ratio was normal whereas UV velocity/HC ratio was significantly lower in IUGR fetuses than in comparable controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study clearly establishes that umbilical venous blood flow is reduced in IUGR fetuses on a weight-specific basis. The sonographic growth parameter which best distinguishes umbilical flow differences of IUGR fetuses from normal fetuses is the head circumference.

Neonatal acidemia with trial of labor among parturients with prior cesarean delivery: a case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the risk factors for neonatal acidemia with trial of labor among parturients with a prior cesarean delivery.

METHODS

From a prospectively collected database on all parturients attempting a trial of labor, newborns with umbilical arterial pH < 7.15 were selected as cases and the controls (1:4) were the next four patients who delivered nonacidotic (pH > or = 7.15) neonates. Exclusion criteria were no prior cesarean delivery, anomalous fetus, and nonavailability of umbilical arterial blood gas analysis. Student's t-test, chi2, and Fisher's exact tests were utilized and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. P < 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

The frequency of neonatal acidemia among patients undergoing trial of labor was 12% (28/234). The cases and controls (n = 112) were similar (P > 0.05) with regards to maternal age, frequency of more than one prior cesarean delivery (11% vs. 8%), gestational age, cervical exam on admission (3.0 +/- 1.5 vs. 3.4 +/- 1.7 cm), usage of oxytocin, and duration of first or second stage of labor. The mean birthweight was significantly higher among acidotic (3,758 +/- 670 g) than nonacidotic (3,470 +/- 545 g; P = 0.018) newborns. Compared to the controls, the cases had a significantly higher frequency of unsuccessful trial of labor (19% vs. 50%; OR: 4.09; 95% CI: 1.70, 9.82) and separation of the uterine scar (0.8% vs. 14%; OR: 18.50; 95% CI: 1.98, 173.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Acidotic newborns with trial of labor tend to be heavier. Parturients have a failed attempt at vaginal birth after cesarean, and have separation of the uterine scar during labor.

Sonographic and clinical methods in the diagnosis of macrosomia

Receiver operator characteristic curves for both clinical and sonographic predictions of macrosomia subsume areas between 0.81 and 0.95, significantly larger than the area of 0.5 that indicates a useless test. Thus, these tests are defined as useful from a statistical point of view. Prediction of macrosomia by clinical or imaging techniques, however, is limited by the substantial false-positive and false-negative rates inherent in these tests. We recommend that physicians continue to use clinical methods to estimate fetal weight, including asking women with parity to provide their own estimates. We recognize that the relative error associated with clinical or sonographic estimates of fetal weight limits their use in clinical practice. Sonographic laboratories may improve their results by performing ROC curve analysis on their own data and by selecting cutoff values that best predict macrosomia in their setting. Serial sonographic measurements that are above the limits chosen to define macrosomia increase the likelihood that a birth weight will be macrosomic. Separate ROC curves must be generated for twins and breech presentations and for patients with diabetes to answer weight-related clinical questions such as mode and timing of delivery. Three-dimensional ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging are expected to generate ROC curves for estimates of fetal weight that are better than those for two-dimensional ultrasound or clinical estimates. Such analyses have yet to be published.

Estimating fetal weight in the management of macrosomia

The purpose of this review is to examine the evidence that, including estimates of fetal macrosomia in patient care, will decrease adverse perinatal outcomes. A literature search for the years 1980 to 1999 was used. Shoulder dystocia and brachial plexus injuries occur more often in macrosomic than in non-macrosomic neonates. However, 26 to 58 percent of shoulder dystocias and 24 to 44 percent of brachial plexus injuries occur to babies weighing less than 4000 gm. Persistence of impairment is extremely rare. Neither historical nor clinical factors have strong positive predictive values for macrosomia. From 15 to 81 percent of the babies predicted to be macrosomic are confirmed by birth weight. Of babies determined to be macrosomic at birth, only 50 to 100 percent were successfully predicted. Shoulder dystocia and brachial plexus injuries are unpredictable events. Available evidence suggests that planned interventions based on estimates of fetal weight do not reduce the incidence of shoulder dystocia and do not decrease adverse outcomes attributable to fetal macrosomia.

Sonographic EFW and macrosomia: is there an optimum formula to predict diabetic fetal macrosomia?

OBJECTIVE

To compare the accuracy of 31 published formulas for estimated fetal weight (EFW) in predicting macrosomia (birthweight 4,000 gm or more) in infants of diabetic mothers.

METHODS

The study population comprised 165 women with gestational or pregestational diabetes who had sonograms to estimate fetal weight after 36 weeks of gestation and within 2 weeks of delivery. Three measures of accuracy were compared: 1) area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve relating EFW to macrosomia, 2) systematic error, and 3) absolute error. For each measure, the 31 formulas were rank-ordered from 1 (best) to 31 (worst). For each formula, the three rank scores were summed to give a total score. The formula with the lowest total score was considered the "best" formula.

RESULTS

Macrosomia occurred in 49 cases (30%). Areas under the ROC curves ranged from 0.8361-0.8978. Differences in areas were not significantly different between the 31 formulas. The 1986 formula of Ott et al. had the lowest total score. Using this "best" formula, an EFW of 4,000 gm or more had a sensitivity of 45% to predict macrosomia and a positive predictive value of 81%. To achieve 90% sensitivity with this formula would have required diagnosis of macrosomia with an EFW of 3,535 gm or more, but this would have comprised 46% of the population with a 42% false-positive rate. All 31 formulas were better at predicting macrosomia than predictions based on gestational age alone, and 28 were better than predictions based on abdominal circumference alone.

CONCLUSIONS

All 31 formulas for EFW had comparably poor accuracy for prediction of macrosomia. Delivery decisions based on EFW will often be in error. Future studies should determine whether specific sonographic measurements, ratios, or differences are better than EFW or birthweight as predictors of birth trauma.

Positive predictive value of suspected growth aberration in twin gestations

OBJECTIVE

Our purpose was to determine the positive predictive value of ultrasonographic surveillance for growth abnormalities in twin gestations as a function of gestational age.

STUDY DESIGN

Women with twin gestations and delivery between January 1992 and March 1998 who had a 20- to 24-week sonogram with normal fetal anatomic findings and who had at least 1 sonogram showing abnormal growth were identified. Abnormal growth on ultrasonography was defined as an estimated fetal weight <10th percentile, abdominal circumference <5th percentile, or twin discordance (>20% difference in twin weights as a function of the heavier twin). Birth weights were then assessed for evidence of twin discordance or growth restriction.

RESULTS

The positive predictive value for the occurrence of a growth abnormality at birth, after an abnormal growth finding on ultrasonography at any time during gestation, was 47.7%. The positive predictive value was greatest (85%) when suspected growth restriction was first documented at 20 to 24 weeks of gestation and decreased with increasing gestational age. Even though sonograms were obtained at a mean interval of 4.4 +/- 2.0 weeks, those gestations with normal growth at 20 to 24 weeks had an elapsed time of 10.3 +/- 3.9 weeks until a growth abnormality was subsequently detected.

CONCLUSION

In twin gestations the positive predictive value of a sonogram for a growth abnormality at birth is significantly decreased after normal findings on a 20- to 24-week sonogram. This finding suggests that a routine 2- to 4-week interval between sonograms for all twin gestations may be unwarranted.

Shoulder dystocia

Shoulder dystocia continues to represent a largely unpredictable and potentially disastrous obstetric emergency. Recent attention has been focused on the effectiveness of obstetric maneuvers employed to alleviate shoulder dystocia. Reports have also questioned the traditional thinking that brachial plexus injury is caused by application of excessive lateral traction to the fetal head. Rather, in-utero forces may underlie a significant portion of these injuries.

Ultrasonographic estimate of birth weight at 24 to 34 weeks: a multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

The study was intended to compare the accuracies of ultrasonographic estimates of birth weights among infants born between 24 and 34 weeks' gestation at 3 tertiary centers.

STUDY DESIGN

In this retrospective study subjects were matched for gestational age (1:1); all underwent ultrasonographic examination within 2 weeks of delivery. The estimates of birth weight were obtained according to 26 published regression equations and their accuracies were assessed with the mean standardized absolute error. For each center the equation with the lowest error was selected to generate (1) receiver-operating characteristic curves for an estimate to identify actual weight < 1500 g and (2) prediction limit calculations to determine the estimate that ensures at 70% confidence a birth weight > 1500 g.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-one cases were analyzed at each center. Comparison of the 26 mean standardized errors at each center indicated that (1) the range was rather wide (eg, 89 +/- 87 to 365 +/- 313 g/kg) and (2) 73% (19/26) of the equations had significantly (P < .05) different accuracies. Receiver-operator characteristic curves show that fetal weight estimates of > or = 1600 g at 2 centers and > or = 1700 g at the third center are required to predict actual birth weight < 1500 g. Prediction limit calculation suggests that different fetal weight estimates (> 1600 g at center 1, > 1900 g for the center II, and > 1800 g at center III) are needed to predict actual weight > 1500 g with a 70% accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultrasonographic estimates of weight for preterm infants, as obtained from 26 equations, are characterized by a rather wide range of accuracy; for most of the equations the accuracies of estimates differ markedly among centers.