Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic

Estimating the number of secondary Ebola cases resulting from an unsafe burial and risk factors for transmission during the West Africa Ebola epidemic

BACKGROUND

Safely burying Ebola infected individuals is acknowledged to be important for controlling Ebola epidemics and was a major component of the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola response. Yet, in order to understand the impact of safe burial programs it is necessary to elucidate the role of unsafe burials in sustaining chains of Ebola transmission and how the risk posed by activities surrounding unsafe burials, including care provided at home prior to death, vary with human behavior and geography.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Interviews with next of kin and community members were carried out for unsafe burials in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, in six districts where the Red Cross was responsible for safe and dignified burials (SDB). Districts were randomly selected from a district-specific sampling frame comprised of villages and neighborhoods that had experienced cases of Ebola. An average of 2.58 secondary cases were potentially generated per unsafe burial and varied by district (range: 0-20). Contact before and after death was reported for 142 (46%) contacts. Caregivers of a primary case were 2.63 to 5.92 times more likely to become EVD infected compared to those with post-mortem contact only. Using these estimates, the Red Cross SDB program potentially averted between 1,411 and 10,452 secondary EVD cases, reducing the epidemic by 4.9% to 36.5%.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

SDB is a fundamental control measure that limits community transmission of Ebola; however, for those individuals having contact before and after death, it was impossible to ascertain the exposure that caused their infection. The number of infections prevented through SDB is significant, yet greater impact would be achieved by early hospitalization of the primary case during acute illness.

West Africa 2013 Ebola: From Virus Outbreak to Humanitarian Crisis

The 2013 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa constituted a major humanitarian crisis. The outbreak numbered over 28,500 cases, more than 10 times the number cumulatively registered from all previous EVD outbreaks combined, with at least 11,000 deaths, and resulted in billions of dollars of lost economic growth to an already impoverished region. The unprecedented scale of West Africa 2013 took the world by surprise and laid bare deficiencies in our response capacity to complex humanitarian disasters of highly infectious and lethal pathogens. However, the magnitude of West Africa 2013 also provided a unique opportunity and obligation to better understand not only the biology and epidemiology of EVD, but also the many scientific, economic, social, political, ethical, and logistical challenges in confronting emerging infectious diseases in the modern era.

Accelerating Vaccine Development During the 2013-2016 West African Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak

The Ebola virus disease outbreak that began in Western Africa in December 2013 was unprecedented in both scope and spread, and the global response was slower and less coherent than was optimal given the scale and pace of the epidemic. Past experience with limited localized outbreaks, lack of licensed medical countermeasures, reluctance by first responders to direct scarce resources to clinical research, community resistance to outside interventions, and lack of local infrastructure were among the factors delaying clinical research during the outbreak. Despite these hurdles, the global health community succeeded in accelerating Ebola virus vaccine development, in a 5-month interval initiating phase I trials in humans in September 2014 and initiating phase II/III trails in February 2015. Each of the three Ebola virus disease-affected countries, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia, conducted a phase II/III Ebola virus vaccine trial. Only one of these trials evaluating recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus expressing Ebola virus glycoprotein demonstrated vaccine efficacy using an innovative mobile ring vaccination trial design based on a ring vaccination strategy responsible for eradicating smallpox that reached areas of new outbreaks. Thoughtful and intensive community engagement in each country enabled the critical community partnership and acceptance of the phase II/III in each country. Due to the delayed clinical trial initiation, relative to the epidemiologic peak of the outbreak in the three countries, vaccine interventions may or may not have played a major role in bringing the epidemic under control. Having demonstrated that clinical trials can be performed during a large outbreak, the global research community can now build on the experience to implement trials more rapidly and efficiently in future outbreaks. Incorporating clinical research needs into planning for future health emergencies and understanding what kind of trial designs is needed for reliable results in an epidemic of limited duration should improve global response to future infectious disease outbreaks.