Air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama

Socioeconomic and environmental covariates of premature mortality in Ontario

This paper contributes to debates on the broad determinants of health and on the policy shift from curative to preventive and protective interventions. It addresses empirically the relative importance of influences on health with a multiple regression analysis of ecologic data from the 49 counties of Ontario. One model achieved high predictive power (that is, Adj R2 > 75%, p < 0.0001). Educational levels were a strong predictor of population health, showing a consistent inverse relationship with premature mortality ratios for both sexes and it was the strongest predictor for females. A low income variable supplied the strongest prediction for male mortality. This variable displayed a positive association with male mortality. Municipal expenditures on environmental protection exerted a negative effect on male mortality. These findings raise questions about the current directions of health policy in Ontario where the provincial government has reduced funding to social and environmental programs, while promising to maintain health care funding.

Mortality and air pollution in Helsinki

In Helsinki, Finland, from 1987 to 1993, the authors studied the associations between daily concentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, total suspended particulates, and particulates with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 microm (PM10), and the daily number of deaths from all causes and from cardiovascular causes. Investigators used Poisson regressions to conduct analyses in two age groups, and they controlled for temperature, relative humidity, day of the week, month, year, long-term trend, holidays, and influenza epidemics. The PM10 levels were associated significantly with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among persons under the age of 65 y of age. In the less-than-65-y age group, sulfur dioxide and ozone were also associated significantly with cardiovascular mortality. The effect of ozone was independent of the PM10 effect, whereas sulfur dioxide became nonsignificant when modeled with PM10. An increase of 10 microg/m3 in PM10 resulted in increases in total mortality and cardiovascular mortality of 3.5% (95% confidence interval=1.0, 5.8) and 4.1% (95% confidence interval=0.4, 10.3), respectively. A 20 microg/m3 increase in ozone was associated with a 9.9% (95% confidence interval=1.1, 19.5) increase in cardiovascular mortality; however, ozone results were inconsistent. Moreover, in addition to their separate effects, high concentrations of PM10, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide had a further harmful additive effect. Typically, PM10 was a better indicator of particulate pollution than total suspended particulates. The authors' findings suggest that (a) even low levels of particulates are related to an increase in cardiovascular mortality; (b) ozone--even in low concentrations--is associated, independently, with cardiovascular mortality; and (c) PM10, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide--the essential components of summertime pollution--have harmful interactions at high concentrations.

Air pollution and daily mortality in Sydney, Australia, 1989 through 1993

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the effects of outdoor air pollutants in Sydney, Australia, on daily mortality.

METHODS

Time-series analysis was performed on counts of daily mortality and major outdoor air pollutants (particulates, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide) in Sydney (1989 to 1993) with adjustment for seasonal and cyclical factors. Poisson regression was calculated with allowance for overdispersion and autocorrelation. The effects of lagging exposure by 0 to 2 days were assessed with single- and multiple-pollutant models.

RESULTS

An increase in daily mean particulate concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile was associated with an increase of 2.63% (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 4.41) in all-cause mortality and 2.68% (0.25 to 5.16) in cardiovascular mortality. An increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile was associated with an increase of 2.04% (0.37 to 3.73) in all-cause mortality and 2.52% (-0.25 to 5.38) in cardiovascular mortality. An increase in the daily mean nitrogen dioxide concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile was associated with an increase of 7.71% (-0.34 to 16.40) in respiratory mortality. Multiple-pollutant models suggest that the effects of particulates and ozone on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and of nitrogen dioxide on respiratory mortality, are independent of the effects of the other pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

Current levels of air pollution in Sydney are associated with daily mortality.

Acute effects of ambient inhalable particles in asthmatic and nonasthmatic children

Although increases in inhalable particle (PM10) concentrations have been associated with acute reductions in the level of lung function and increased symptom reporting in children, including children with asthma, it is not clear whether these effects occur largely in asthmatic children, or even whether asthmatic children are more likely to experience these effects than children without asthma. To address these points, the following subgroups of children were selected from a survey population of all 2,200 elementary school children (6 to 13 yr of age) in a pulp mill community on the west coast of Vancouver Island: (1) all children with physician-diagnosed asthma (n = 75 participated), (2) all children with an exercise-induced fall in FEV1 without diagnosed asthma (n = 57), (3) all children with airway obstruction (FEV1/FVC < 0.76) without either of the above (n = 18), and (4) control children without any of the above (n = 56). The children were followed for as long as 18 mo with twice daily measurements of peak expiratory flow (PEF) and daily symptom diary recording. Maximum daily PM10 concentration was 159 microm/m3 (median, 22.1), but only 8 d (1.2%) had concentrations above 100 microg/m3. In an analysis that accounted for time-varying covariates, and serially correlated and missing data, for the entire sample of children, increases in PM10 were associated with reductions in PEF and increased reporting of cough, phlegm production, and sore throat. For the subgroup of children with diagnosed asthma, PEF in the time period with the highest PM10 concentrations fell by an estimated 0.55 L/min (95% CI, 0.06 to 1.05) for a 10 microg/m3 PM10 increase above the mean daily PM10 concentration of 27.3 microg/m3 and the odds of reported cough increased by 8% (95% CI, 0 to 16%); no consistent effects were observed in the other groups of children. It is concluded that children experience reductions in PEF and increased symptoms after increases in relatively low ambient PM10 concentrations, and that children with diagnosed asthma are more susceptible to these effects than are other children.

Effects of ambient particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in Rotterdam, The Netherlands

The association between daily variations in all-cause mortality from 1983-1991 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and ambient air pollution was investigated. Twenty-four-hour average concentrations of total suspended particulates, Black Smoke, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide were available on a daily basis. Every other day, total iron content in total suspended particulates samples was available. Poisson regression analysis was used to study associations between air pollution and mortality; generalized additive models were used to adjust for confounders (e.g., seasonal trends, weather). Daily mortality was associated most consistently with previous-day concentrations of total suspended particulates (relative risk = 1.05 for a change of 91 microg/m3) and ozone (relative risk = 1.06 for a change of 67 microg/m3). Total iron was associated less consistently with mortality than total suspended particulate mass was. The associations of mortality with ozone and total suspended particulates were independent of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide. The relative risks of total suspended particulates and particularly ozone were higher for subjects older than 78 y. The relationship between mortality and ozone did not deviate significantly from linear. The relationship between mortality and total suspended particulates was linear below 100 microg/m3 and leveled off at higher concentrations. If a threshold exists for the effects on mortality of these components, it exists at very low levels.

Associations between outdoor air pollution and daily mortality in Brisbane, Australia

The results of several studies have indicated significant associations between daily mortality and air pollution, with little evidence of a threshold. In the current study, the authors examined daily mortality during the period 1987-1993 for the Brisbane region, which is the fastest-growing urban region in Australia (annual average concentration of particulate matter less than 10 microm in diameter = 27 microg/m3, maximum hourly sulfur dioxide level = 60 ppb, and maximum daily ozone hourly level = 118 ppb). The authors conducted a general estimating equation analysis, and they used autoregressive Poisson models for daily mortality to examine associations with air pollution variables. The authors used research methods developed in the Air Pollution on Health, European Approach (APHEA), project to control confounding effects of weather and temporal trends. The air pollutants examined included particulate pollution (measured by nephelometry [bsp data]), sulfur dioxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide. The results indicated that the associations between total daily mortality and particulate levels found in studies in the United States and other countries may be applicable in Brisbane, Australia. Ozone levels were also associated significantly with total daily mortality. There was little evidence of interaction between the ozone effects (mainly in summer) and particulates or with sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. The associations between pollutants (ozone, bsp) and daily mortality were significant only for individuals who were older than 65 y of age; positive associations were also found with cardiovascular disease categories, and the regression coefficients--when significant--were higher than those for total mortality. The results indicated a possible threshold for ozone levels, but a similar result for particulate levels was not apparent.

Particulate air pollution and daily mortality: who is at risk?

Major episodes of air pollution, such as the London fog incident in 1952, have shown conclusively that relatively high levels of particulate air pollution can lead to serious adverse health effects, including death. Recent data suggest that exposure to respirable particulates [with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microns (PM10)] under the current American standard (150 micrograms/m3 for 24 h) is associated with increased daily mortality. These results have sparked an intense debate regarding the veracity of the reported associations and whether they should be interpreted causally. Most investigators have relied on a time-series approach to investigate the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality. Concerns have been expressed that the results may vary with the type of statistical methods used and the potential for uncontrolled and residual confounding effects. Of perhaps greater importance is that cause-specific mortality, temporal aspects of the exposure-disease relationship, and subgroups of the population have not been studied adequately. Under the hypothesis that only persons with impaired physiologic systems should be at risk, the identification of susceptible subgroups is of great importance in discerning causal mechanisms and in setting public health policies. In this paper, the main methodologic issues are discussed and a novel design to identify at-risk subgroups is presented.

[Modeling of daily mortality in the Autonomous Community of Madrid (1986-1991)]

OBJECTIVE

To describe, estimate and model trends and seasonal variations in daily mortality in the Comunidad of Madrid, Spain.

METHODS

Overall mortality rate, as well as gender, age and cause-specific mortality rates between january 1, 1986 and december 31, 1991 were analyzed. A cyclic pattern was detected using fast Fourier transform. Mortality was modelled using ARIMA stochastic models and Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

Spectral analysis detected two statistically significant periodic components (winter-summer). Winter peak was related mainly to an excess in cardiovascular diseases in women aged 65 and over, as well as with cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases in men aged 45 and over. The summer peak was related with women, aged 65 and over with cerebrovascular diseases as the cause of death.

CONCLUSIONS

The two cycles detected support the hypothesis of an association between mortality and environmental factors.

Air pollution and mortality in Valencia, Spain: a study using the APHEA methodology

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To assess the short term relationship between daily air pollution indicators (black smoke and sulphur dioxide (SO2)) and mortality in Valencia.

DESIGN

This was an ecological study using time series data with application of Poisson regression. Daily variations in four selected outcome variables (total mortality, mortality in those over 70 years of age, and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality) were considered in relation to daily variations in air pollution levels for the period 1991-93.

SETTING

The city of Valencia, Spain.

MAIN RESULTS

The mean daily mortality was 17.5, and the average daily levels of air pollutants from the three monitoring stations included in the study were, 67.7 micrograms/m3 for black smoke, and 39.9 micrograms/ m3 for SO2. A significant positive association between black smoke and three of the four outcomes in the study was found. The estimated relative risk (RR) of dying corresponding to a 10 micrograms/m3 increase in mean daily black smoke over the whole period was 1.009 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.003, 1.015). For mortality in the group aged more than 70 years and for cardiovascular mortality, the RRs were 1.008 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.016) and 1.012 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.022) respectively. The association with SO2 was less clear: it was only evident during the warm season. The estimated RRs in this case were 1.007 (95% CI: 0.999, 1.015) for total mortality, 1.009 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.21) for total mortality in those older than 70, and 1.012 (95% CI: 0.995, 1.026) for cardiovascular deaths. No significant association was found between mortality from respiratory diseases and either of the two pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

A positive relationship between air pollution and mortality was found in the short term, as has been shown in an important number of studies carried out elsewhere. Although the current levels of particulate air pollution in Valencia are not very high, they could have an effect on the number of premature deaths. Despite the fact that the association is weak, it is important at the public health level both because of the numbers of population exposed and the possibility of establishing control measures.

Low-level air pollution and hospital admissions for cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases in Helsinki

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated whether low concentrations of ambient air pollutants are associated with hospital admissions for ischemic cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases.

METHODS

Associations between daily concentrations of sulfur dioxide, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulates and daily hospital admissions due to ischemic cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases were studied in Helsinki, Finland, 1987 through 1989. The regression analyses controlled for weather, day of the week, season, long-term trends, and influenza epidemics.

RESULTS

Admissions via emergency rooms due to ischemic cardiac diseases (n = 7005) were significantly associated with the prevailing levels of nitric oxide and ozone, and those due to cerebrovascular diseases (n = 3737) were associated with nitrogen dioxide; these levels were only moderate. Long-term transient myocardial ischemic attacks were related to particulates, and short-term ischemic attacks were related to nitrogen dioxide.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptoms of ischemic cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases may be provoked by pollutants in concentrations lower than those given as guidelines in many countries and lower than previously shown.

Surveillance in environmental public health: issues, systems, and sources

This article describes environmental public health surveillance and proposes a framework to enhance its practice in the United States. Special issues for surveillance in environmental public health are examined, and examples of existing systems useful for environmental public health practice are provided. Current and projected surveillance needs, as well as potential sources of data, are examined. The proposed framework for conducting environmental public health surveillance involves data from three points in the process by which an agent in the environment produces an adverse outcome in a host: hazards, exposures, and outcomes. Environmental health practitioners should build on efforts in other fields (e.g., infectious diseases and occupational health) to establish priorities in the surveillance of health conditions associated with exposure to environmental toxicants. For specific surveillance programs, existing data systems, as well as data gaps, should be identified. Coordinated surveillance systems can facilitate public health efforts to prevent and control disease, injury, and disability related to the interaction between people and their environment.

Short term effect of air pollution on mortality in Polish urban populations--what is different?

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To assess, within the multinational European Community funded APHEA project, the relationship between daily ambient air pollution with sulphur dioxide (SO2) and black smoke (BS) and the daily number of deaths from all causes except external, from cardiovascular diseases, and from respiratory diseases taking into account several possible confounding factors.

DESIGN

Time series analysis with the application of Poisson regression to the counts of daily number of deaths from selected causes over several years. Data were obtained from the computer files of individual death records in four Polish cities. Criteria developed for all the centres participating in the project were applied to the process of model building.

SETTING

Four Polish cities - Cracow (period 1977-89), Lodz (1977-90), Poznan (1983-90), and Wroclaw (1979-89).

SUBJECTS

Permanent residents of the cities who died in a city of residence or in a surrounding region during the study period.

MAIN RESULTS

There were significant positive associations between mortality from all causes excluding external ones and SO2 and BS in Cracow and in Lodz and between mortality from cardiovascular diseases and SO2 in Cracow alone. In other cities the association was either non-significant or significant but in the opposite direction. No significant positive association was found between respiratory deaths and these pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

Short term effect of air pollution on mortality in Polish urban population cannot be ignored. However, differences observed between the cities suggest that the association may be not so straightforward and therefore there is a need of further studies to identify additional factors that may modify and confound the association.

Short term effects of urban air pollution on respiratory health in Milan, Italy, 1980-89

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between daily urban air pollution and acute effects on respiratory health.

STUDY DESIGN

Time series analysis following the procedure defined in the APHEA protocol.

SETTING

City of Milan, Italy, from 1980-89. Two air pollutants, total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), and two health outcomes, deaths and hospital admissions were considered. The last was analysed according to two age groups.

SUBJECTS

Daily deaths and general hospital admissions for respiratory causes in residents who died in Milan or were admitted to local hospitals in that city.

MAIN RESULTS

There was an increased risk of respiratory death and of hospital admission associated with increased concentrations of SO2 and TSP. The relative risks were similar for both pollutants, and were higher for respiratory deaths than for hospital admissions. No changes in relation to season were seen in the SO2 effect on respiratory deaths, but there was a suggestion of a higher effect on hospital admissions in the cool months. The seasonal pattern of the TSP effect was inconsistent: for mortality it was higher in the warm period while for hospital admissions it seemed to be higher in the cool months. This last result might be due to chance, although some role could have been played by the hospital admission data on all general admissions for respiratory causes (ICD-9: 460-519) as these are a much less specific end point.

CONCLUSION

In Milan, a positive association was found between the daily SO2 or TSP concentrations and the number of deaths or hospital admissions for respiratory causes. This confirms results from other European and North American cities.

Short term effects of air pollution on health: a European approach using epidemiologic time series data: the APHEA protocol

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Results from several studies over the past five years have shown that the current levels of pollutants in Europe and North America have adverse short term effects on health. The APHEA project aims to quantifying these in Europe, using standardised methodology. The project protocol and analytical methodology are presented here.

DESIGN

Daily time series data were gathered for several air pollutants (sulphur dioxide; particulate matter, measured as total particles or as the particle fraction with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than a certain cut off, or as black smoke; nitrogen dioxide; and ozone) and health outcomes (the total and cause specific number of deaths and emergency hospital admissions). The data included fulfilled the quality criteria set by the APHEA protocol.

SETTING

Fifteen European cities from 10 different countries with a total population over 25 million.

METHODOLOGY

The APHEA collaborative group decided on a specific methodological procedure to control for confounding effects and evaluate the hypothesis. At the same time there was sufficient flexibility to allow local characteristics to be taken into account. The procedure included modelling of all potential confounding factors (that is, seasonal and long term patterns, meteorological factors, day of the week, holidays, and other unusual events), choosing the "best" air pollution models, and applying diagnostic tools to check the adequacy of the models. The final analysis used autoregressive Poisson models allowing for overdispersion. Effects were reported as relative risks contrasting defined increases in the corresponding pollutant levels. Each participating group applied the analyses to their own data.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology enabled results from many different European settings to be considered collectively. It represented the best available compromise between feasibility, comparability, and local adaptibility when using aggregated time series data not originally collected for the purpose of epidemiological studies.

Air pollution and daily mortality in London: 1987-92

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether outdoor air pollution levels in London influence daily mortality.

DESIGN

Poisson regression analysis of daily counts of deaths, with adjustment for effects of secular trend, seasonal and other cyclical factors, day of the week, holidays, influenza epidemic, temperature, humidity, and autocorrelation, from April 1987 to March 1992. Pollution variables were particles (black smoke), sulphur dioxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide, lagged 0-3 days.

SETTING

Greater London.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative risk of death from all causes (excluding accidents), respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Ozone levels (same day) were associated with a significant increase in all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality; the effects were greater in the warm seasons (April to September) and were independent of the effects of other pollutants. In the warm season an increase of the eight hour ozone concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile of the seasonal change (7-36 ppb) was associated with an increase of 3.5% (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 5.3), 3.6% (1.04 to 6.1), and 5.4% (0.4 to 10.7) in all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality respectively. Black smoke concentrations on the previous day were significantly associated with all cause mortality, and this effect was also greater in the warm season and was independent of the effects of other pollutants. For black smoke an increase from the 10th to 90th centile in the warm season (7-19 microg/m3) was associated with an increase of 2.5% (0.9 to 4.1) in all cause mortality. Significant but smaller and less consistent effects were also observed for nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide.

CONCLUSION

Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in London may have an adverse effect on daily mortality.