Back to nature: ecological genomics of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda, Pinaceae)

Molecular genetics and genomics generate new insights into invertebrate pest invasions

Invertebrate pest invasions and outbreaks are associated with high social, economic, and ecological costs, and their significance will intensify with an increasing pressure on agricultural productivity as a result of human population growth and climate change. New molecular genetic and genomic techniques are available and accessible, but have been grossly underutilized in studies of invertebrate pest invasions, despite that they are useful tools for applied pest management and for understanding fundamental features of pest invasions including pest population demographics and adaptation of pests to novel and/or changing environments. Here, we review current applications of molecular genetics and genomics in the study of invertebrate pest invasions and outbreaks, and we highlight shortcomings from the current body of research. We then discuss recent conceptual and methodological advances in the areas of molecular genetics/genomics and data analysis, and we highlight how these advances will further our understanding of the demographic, ecological, and evolutionary features of invertebrate pest invasions. We are now well equipped to use molecular data to understand invertebrate dispersal and adaptation, and this knowledge has valuable applications in agriculture at a time when these are critically required.

Open access to tree genomes: the path to a better forest

An open-access culture and a well-developed comparative-genomics infrastructure must be developed in forest trees to derive the full potential of genome sequencing in this diverse group of plants that are the dominant species in much of the earth's terrestrial ecosystems.

Selection, genome-wide fitness effects and evolutionary rates in the model legume Medicago truncatula

Sequence data for >20 000 annotated genes from 56 accessions of Medicago truncatula were used to identify potential targets of positive selection, the determinants of evolutionary rate variation and the relative importance of positive and purifying selection in shaping nucleotide diversity. Based upon patterns of intraspecific diversity and interspecific divergence, c. 50-75% of nonsynonymous polymorphisms are subject to strong purifying selection and 1% of the sampled genes harbour a signature of positive selection. Combining polymorphism with expression data, we estimated the distribution of fitness effects and found that the proportion of deleterious mutations is significantly greater for expressed genes than for genes with undetected transcripts (nonexpressed) in a previous RNA-seq experiment and greater for broadly expressed genes than those expressed in only a single tissue. Expression level is the strongest correlate of evolutionary rates at nonsynonymous sites, and despite multiple genomic features being significantly correlated with evolutionary rates, they explain less than 20% of the variation in nonsynonymous rates (dN) and <15% of the variation in either synonymous rates (dS) or dN:dS. Among putative targets of selection were genes involved in defence against pathogens and herbivores, genes with roles in mediating the relationship with rhizobial symbionts and one-third of annotated histone-lysine methyltransferases. Adaptive evolution of the methyltransferases suggests that positive selection in gene expression may have occurred through evolution of enzymes involved in epigenetic modification.

Adaptive evolution during an ongoing range expansion: the invasive bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in Ireland

Range expansions are extremely common, but have only recently begun to attract attention in terms of their genetic consequences. As populations expand, demes at the wave front experience strong genetic drift, which is expected to reduce genetic diversity and potentially cause 'allele surfing', where alleles may become fixed over a wide geographical area even if their effects are deleterious. Previous simulation models show that range expansions can generate very strong selective gradients on dispersal, reproduction, competition and immunity. To investigate the effects of range expansion on genetic diversity and adaptation, we studied the population genomics of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in Ireland. The bank vole was likely introduced in the late 1920s and is expanding its range at a rate of ~2.5 km/year. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we genotyped 281 bank voles at 5979 SNP loci. Fourteen sample sites were arranged in three transects running from the introduction site to the wave front of the expansion. We found significant declines in genetic diversity along all three transects. However, there was no evidence that sites at the wave front had accumulated more deleterious mutations. We looked for outlier loci with strong correlations between allele frequency and distance from the introduction site, where the direction of correlation was the same in all three transects. Amongst these outliers, we found significant enrichment for genic SNPs, suggesting the action of selection. Candidates for selection included several genes with immunological functions and several genes that could influence behaviour.

Revisiting the sequencing of the first tree genome: Populus trichocarpa

Ten years ago, it was announced that the Joint Genome Institute with funds provided by the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research would sequence the black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray) genome. This landmark decision was the culmination of work by the forest science community to develop Populus as a model system. Since its public release in late 2006, the availability of the Populus genome has spawned research in plant biology, morphology, genetics and ecology. Here we address how the tree physiologist has used this resource. More specifically, we revisit our earlier contention that the rewards of sequencing the Populus genome would depend on how quickly scientists working with woody perennials could adopt molecular approaches to investigate the mechanistic underpinnings of basic physiological processes. Several examples illustrate the integration of functional and comparative genomics into the forest sciences, especially in areas that target improved understanding of the developmental differences between woody perennials and herbaceous annuals (e.g., phase transitions). Sequencing the Populus genome and the availability of genetic and genomic resources has also been instrumental in identifying candidate genes that underlie physiological and morphological traits of interest. Genome-enabled research has advanced our understanding of how phenotype and genotype are related and provided insights into the genetic mechanisms whereby woody perennials adapt to environmental stress. In the future, we anticipate that low-cost, high-throughput sequencing will continue to facilitate research in tree physiology and enhance our understanding at scales of individual organisms and populations. A challenge remains, however, as to how genomic resources, including the Populus genome, can be used to understand ecosystem function. Although examples are limited, progress in this area is encouraging and will undoubtedly improve as future research targets the many unique aspects of Populus as a keystone species in terrestrial ecosystems.

Testing for associations between loci and environmental gradients using latent factor mixed models

Adaptation to local environments often occurs through natural selection acting on a large number of loci, each having a weak phenotypic effect. One way to detect these loci is to identify genetic polymorphisms that exhibit high correlation with environmental variables used as proxies for ecological pressures. Here, we propose new algorithms based on population genetics, ecological modeling, and statistical learning techniques to screen genomes for signatures of local adaptation. Implemented in the computer program “latent factor mixed model” (LFMM), these algorithms employ an approach in which population structure is introduced using unobserved variables. These fast and computationally efficient algorithms detect correlations between environmental and genetic variation while simultaneously inferring background levels of population structure. Comparing these new algorithms with related methods provides evidence that LFMM can efficiently estimate random effects due to population history and isolation-by-distance patterns when computing gene-environment correlations, and decrease the number of false-positive associations in genome scans. We then apply these models to plant and human genetic data, identifying several genes with functions related to development that exhibit strong correlations with climatic gradients.

Short read sequencing in studies of natural variation and adaptation

Today's high throughput sequencing approaches, coupled with equally revolutionary advances in bioinformatics, allow us to describe and analyze genomes in unprecedented detail. Short Read Sequencing (SRS) approaches have been especially instrumental in bringing genomic analysis to a wide range of questions and species in plant biology. We can now connect genotypes and phenotypes with greater efficiency, and investigate the molecular basis of natural variation and adaptation in a genomic framework. New and creative applications of SRS and other genomic approaches are not only reshaping how we study natural variation, but also our overall understanding of gene and genome evolution. Here we discuss examples of the application of SRS technologies to the characterization of genetic diversity, genome evolution and adaptation in plants.

Molecular divergence in tropical tree populations occupying environmental mosaics

Unveiling the genetic basis of local adaptation to environmental variation is a major goal in molecular ecology. In rugged landscapes characterized by environmental mosaics, living populations and communities can experience steep ecological gradients over very short geographical distances. In lowland tropical forests, interspecific divergence in edaphic specialization (for seasonally flooded bottomlands and seasonally dry terra firme soils) has been proven by ecological studies on adaptive traits. Some species are nevertheless capable of covering the entire span of the gradient; intraspecific variation for adaptation to contrasting conditions may explain the distribution of such ecological generalists. We investigated whether local divergence happens at small spatial scales in two stands of Eperua falcata (Fabaceae), a widespread tree species of the Guiana Shield. We investigated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP) and sequence divergence as well as spatial genetic structure (SGS) at four genes putatively involved in stress response and three genes with unknown function. Significant genetic differentiation was observed among sub-populations within stands, and eight SNP loci showed patterns compatible with disruptive selection. SGS analysis showed genetic turnover along the gradients at three loci, and at least one haplotype was found to be in repulsion with one habitat. Taken together, these results suggest genetic differentiation at small spatial scale in spite of gene flow. We hypothesize that heterogeneous environments may cause molecular divergence, possibly associated to local adaptation in E. falcata.

Intra- and interspecific tree growth across a long altitudinal gradient in the Peruvian Andes

Tree growth response across environmental gradients is fundamental to understanding species distributional ecology and forest ecosystem ecology and to predict future ecosystem services. Cross-sectional patterns of ecosystem properties with respect to climatic gradients are often used to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Across sites in the tropics, primary productivity increases with temperature, suggesting that forest ecosystems will become more productive as temperature rises. However, this trend is confounded with a shift in species composition and so may not reflect the response of in situ forests to warming. In this study, we simultaneously studied tree diameter growth across the altitudinal ranges of species within a single genus across a geographically compact temperature gradient, to separate the direct effect of temperature on tree growth from that of species compositional turnover. Using a Bayesian state space modeling framework we combined data from repeated diameter censuses and dendrometer measurements from across a 1700-m altitudinal gradient collected over six years on over 2400 trees in Weinmannia, a dominant and widespread genus of cloud forest trees in the Andes. Within species, growth showed no consistent trend with altitude, but higher-elevation species had lower growth rates than lower-elevation species, suggesting that species turnover is largely responsible for the positive correlation between productivity and temperature in tropical forests. Our results may indicate a significant difference in how low- and high-latitude forests will respond to climate change, since temperate and boreal tree species are consistently observed to have a positive relationship between growth and temperature. If our results hold for other tropical species, a positive response in ecosystem productivity to increasing temperatures in the Andes will depend on the altitudinal migration of tree species. The rapid pace of climate change, and slow observed rates of migration, suggest a slow, or even initially negative response of ecosystem productivity to warming. Finally, this study shows how the observed scale of biological organization can affect conclusions drawn from studies of ecological phenomena across environmental gradients, and calls into question the common practice in tropical ecology of lumping species at higher taxonomic levels.

The role of selection in driving landscape genomic structure of the waterflea Daphnia magna

The combined analysis of neutral and adaptive genetic variation is crucial to reconstruct the processes driving population genetic structure in the wild. However, such combined analysis is challenging because of the complex interaction among neutral and selective processes in the landscape. Overcoming this level of complexity requires an unbiased search for the evidence of selection in the genomes of populations sampled from their natural habitats and the identification of demographic processes that lead to present-day populations' genetic structure. Ecological model species with a suite of genomic tools and well-understood ecologies are best suited to resolve this complexity and elucidate the role of selective and demographic processes in the landscape genomic structure of natural populations. Here we investigate the water flea Daphnia magna, an emerging model system in genomics and a renowned ecological model system. We infer past and recent demographic processes by contrasting patterns of local and regional neutral genetic diversity at markers with different mutation rates. We assess the role of the environment in driving genetic variation in our study system by identifying correlates between biotic and abiotic variables naturally occurring in the landscape and patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic variation. Our results indicate that selection plays a major role in determining the population genomic structure of D. magna. First, environmental selection directly impacts genetic variation at loci hitchhiking with genes under selection. Second, priority effects enhanced by local genetic adaptation (cf. monopolization) affect neutral genetic variation by reducing gene flow among populations and genetic diversity within populations.

The geographical and environmental determinants of genetic diversity for four alpine conifers of the European Alps

Climate is one of the most important drivers of local adaptation in forest tree species. Standing levels of genetic diversity and structure within and among natural populations of forest trees are determined by the interplay between climatic heterogeneity and the balance between selection and gene flow. To investigate this interplay, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 24 to 37 populations from four subalpine conifers, Abies alba Mill., Larix decidua Mill., Pinus cembra L. and Pinus mugo Turra, across their natural ranges in the Italian Alps and Apennines. Patterns of population structure were apparent using a Bayesian clustering program, STRUCTURE, which identified three to five genetic groups per species. Geographical correlates with these patterns, however, were only apparent for P. cembra. Multivariate environmental variables [i.e. principal components (PCs)] were subsequently tested for association with SNPs using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed model. The majority of the SNPs, ranging from six in L. decidua to 18 in P. mugo, were associated with PC1, corresponding to winter precipitation and seasonal minimum temperature. In A. alba, four SNPs were associated with PC2, corresponding to the seasonal minimum temperature. Functional annotation of those genes with the orthologs in Arabidopsis revealed several genes involved in abiotic stress response. This study provides a detailed assessment of population structure and its association with environment and geography in four coniferous species in the Italian mountains.

Genome scanning for detecting adaptive genes along environmental gradients in the Japanese conifer, Cryptomeria japonica

Local adaptation is important in evolutionary processes and speciation. We used multiple tests to identify several candidate genes that may be involved in local adaptation from 1026 loci in 14 natural populations of Cryptomeria japonica, the most economically important forestry tree in Japan. We also studied the relationships between genotypes and environmental variables to obtain information on the selective pressures acting on individual populations. Outlier loci were mapped onto a linkage map, and the positions of loci associated with specific environmental variables are considered. The outlier loci were not randomly distributed on the linkage map; linkage group 11 was identified as a genomic island of divergence. Three loci in this region were also associated with environmental variables such as mean annual temperature, daily maximum temperature, maximum snow depth, and so on. Outlier loci identified with high significance levels will be essential for conservation purposes and for future work on molecular breeding.

Environmental adaptation contributes to gene polymorphism across the Arabidopsis thaliana genome

The level of within-species polymorphism differs greatly among genes in a genome. Many genomic studies have investigated the relationship between gene polymorphism and factors such as recombination rate or expression pattern. However, the polymorphism of a gene is affected not only by its physical properties or functional constraints but also by natural selection on organisms in their environments. Specifically, if functionally divergent alleles enable adaptation to different environments, locus-specific polymorphism may be maintained by spatially heterogeneous natural selection. To test this hypothesis and estimate the extent to which environmental selection shapes the pattern of genome-wide polymorphism, we define the "environmental relevance" of a gene as the proportion of genetic variation explained by environmental factors, after controlling for population structure. We found substantial effects of environmental relevance on patterns of polymorphism among genes. In addition, the correlation between environmental relevance and gene polymorphism is positive, consistent with the expectation that balancing selection among heterogeneous environments maintains genetic variation at ecologically important genes. Comparison of the gene ontology annotations shows that genes with high environmental relevance are enriched in unknown function categories. These results suggest an important role for environmental factors in shaping genome-wide patterns of polymorphism and indicate another direction of genomic study.

Disentangling the roles of history and local selection in shaping clinal variation of allele frequencies and gene expression in Norway spruce (Picea abies)

Understanding the genetic basis of local adaptation is challenging due to the subtle balance among conflicting evolutionary forces that are involved in its establishment and maintenance. One system with which to tease apart these difficulties is clines in adaptive characters. Here we analyzed genetic and phenotypic variation in bud set, a highly heritable and adaptive trait, among 18 populations of Norway spruce (Picea abies), arrayed along a latitudinal gradient ranging from 47°N to 68°N. We confirmed that variation in bud set is strongly clinal, using a subset of five populations. Genotypes for 137 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) chosen from 18 candidate genes putatively affecting bud set and 308 control SNPs chosen from 264 random genes were analyzed for patterns of genetic structure and correlation to environment. Population genetic structure was low (F(ST) = 0.05), but latitudinal patterns were apparent among Scandinavian populations. Hence, part of the observed clinal variation should be attributable to population demography. Conditional on patterns of genetic structure, there was enrichment of SNPs within candidate genes for correlations with latitude. Twenty-nine SNPs were also outliers with respect to F(ST). The enrichment for clinal variation at SNPs within candidate genes (i.e., SNPs in PaGI, PaPhyP, PaPhyN, PaPRR7, and PaFTL2) indicated that local selection in the 18 populations, and/or selection in the ancestral populations from which they were recently derived, shaped the observed cline. Validation of these genes using expression studies also revealed that PaFTL2 expression is significantly associated with latitude, thereby confirming the central role played by this gene in the control of phenology in plants.

Origin, fate, and architecture of ecologically relevant genetic variation

Recent advances in molecular genetics combined with field manipulations are yielding new insight into the origin, evolutionary fate, and genetic architecture of phenotypic variation in natural plant populations, with two surprising implications for the evolution of plant genomes. First, genetic loci exhibiting antagonistic pleiotropy across natural environments appear rare relative to loci that are adaptive in one or more environments and neutral elsewhere. These 'conditionally neutral' alleles should sweep to fixation when they arise, yet genome comparisons find little evidence for such selective sweeps. Second, genes under biotic selection tend to be of larger effect than genes under abiotic selection. Recent theory suggests this may be a consequence of high gene flow among populations under selection for local adaptation.

Association genetics of the loblolly pine (Pinus taeda, Pinaceae) metabolome

The metabolome of a plant comprises all small molecule metabolites, which are produced during cellular processes. The genetic basis for metabolites in nonmodel plants is unknown, despite frequently observed correlations between metabolite concentrations and stress responses. A quantitative genetic analysis of metabolites in a nonmodel plant species is thus warranted. Here, we use standard association genetic methods to correlate 3563 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to concentrations of 292 metabolites measured in a single loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) association population. A total of 28 single locus associations were detected, representing 24 and 20 unique SNPs and metabolites, respectively. Multilocus Bayesian mixed linear models identified 2998 additional associations for a total of 1617 unique SNPs associated to 255 metabolites. These SNPs explained sizeable fractions of metabolite heritabilities when considered jointly (56.6% on average) and had lower minor allele frequencies and magnitudes of population structure as compared with random SNPs. Modest sets of SNPs (n = 1-23) explained sizeable portions of genetic effects for many metabolites, thus highlighting the importance of multi-SNP models to association mapping, and exhibited patterns of polymorphism consistent with being linked to targets of natural selection. The implications for association mapping in forest trees are discussed.

Extended linkage disequilibrium in noncoding regions in a conifer, Cryptomeria japonica

We measured linkage disequilibrium in mostly noncoding regions of Cryptomeria japonica, a conifer belonging to Cupressaceae. Linkage disequilibrium was extensive and did not decay even at a distance of 100 kb. The average estimate of the population recombination rate per base pair was 1.55 × 10(-5) and was <1/70 of that in the coding regions. We discuss the impact of low recombination rates in a large part of the genome on association studies.

A map of local adaptation in Arabidopsis thaliana

Local adaptation is critical for species persistence in the face of rapid environmental change, but its genetic basis is not well understood. Growing the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana in field experiments in four sites across the species' native range, we identified candidate loci for local adaptation from a genome-wide association study of lifetime fitness in geographically diverse accessions. Fitness-associated loci exhibited both geographic and climatic signatures of local adaptation. Relative to genomic controls, high-fitness alleles were generally distributed closer to the site where they increased fitness, occupying specific and distinct climate spaces. Independent loci with different molecular functions contributed most strongly to fitness variation in each site. Independent local adaptation by distinct genetic mechanisms may facilitate a flexible evolutionary response to changing environment across a species range.

Quantifying effects of environmental and geographical factors on patterns of genetic differentiation

Elucidating the factors influencing genetic differentiation is an important task in biology, and the relative contribution from natural selection and genetic drift has long been debated. In this study, we used a regression-based approach to simultaneously estimate the quantitative contributions of environmental adaptation and isolation by distance on genetic variation in Boechera stricta, a wild relative of Arabidopsis. Patterns of discrete and continuous genetic differentiation coexist within this species. For the discrete differentiation between two major genetic groups, environment has larger contribution than geography, and we also identified a significant environment-by-geography interaction effect. Elsewhere in the species range, we found a latitudinal cline of genetic variation reflecting only isolation by distance. To further confirm the effect of environmental selection on genetic divergence, we identified the specific environmental variables predicting local genotypes in allopatric and sympatric regions. Water availability was identified as the possible cause of differential local adaptation in both geographical regions, confirming the role of environmental adaptation in driving and maintaining genetic differentiation between the two major genetic groups. In addition, the environment-by-geography interaction is further confirmed by the finding that water availability is represented by different environmental factors in the allopatric and sympatric regions. In conclusion, this study shows that geographical and environmental factors together created stronger and more discrete genetic differentiation than isolation by distance alone, which only produced a gradual, clinal pattern of genetic variation. These findings emphasize the importance of environmental selection in shaping patterns of species-wide genetic variation in the natural environment.

Applications and implications of neutral versus non-neutral markers in molecular ecology

The field of molecular ecology has expanded enormously in the past two decades, largely because of the growing ease with which neutral molecular genetic data can be obtained from virtually any taxonomic group. However, there is also a growing awareness that neutral molecular data can provide only partial insight into parameters such as genetic diversity, local adaptation, evolutionary potential, effective population size, and taxonomic designations. Here we review some of the applications of neutral versus adaptive markers in molecular ecology, discuss some of the advantages that can be obtained by supplementing studies of molecular ecology with data from non-neutral molecular markers, and summarize new methods that are enabling researchers to generate data from genes that are under selection.

Scanning the genome for gene SNPs related to climate adaptation and estimating selection at the molecular level in boreal black spruce

Outlier detection methods were used to scan the genome of the boreal conifer black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) for gene single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) potentially involved in adaptations to temperature and precipitation variations. The scan involved 583 SNPs from 313 genes potentially playing adaptive roles. Differentiation estimates among population groups defined following variation in temperature and precipitation were moderately high for adaptive quantitative characters such as the timing of budset or tree height (Q(ST) = 0.189-0.314). Average differentiation estimates for gene SNPs were null, with F(ST) values of 0.005 and 0.006, respectively, among temperature and precipitation population groups. Using two detection approaches, a total of 26 SNPs from 25 genes distributed among 11 of the 12 linkage groups of black spruce were detected as outliers with F(ST) as high as 0.078. Nearly half of the outlier SNPs were located in exons and half of those were nonsynonymous. The functional annotations of genes carrying outlier SNPs and regression analyses between the frequencies of these SNPs and climatic variables supported their implication in adaptive processes. Several genes carrying outlier SNPs belonged to gene families previously found to harbour outlier SNPs in a reproductively isolated but largely sympatric congeneric species, suggesting differential subfunctionalization of gene duplicates. Selection coefficient estimates (S) were moderate but well above the magnitude of drift (>>1/N(e)), indicating that the signature of natural selection could be detected at the nucleotide level despite the recent establishment of these populations during the Holocene.

Forest tree genomics: growing resources and applications

Over the past two decades, research in forest tree genomics has lagged behind that of model and agricultural systems. However, genomic research in forest trees is poised to enter into an important and productive phase owing to the advent of next-generation sequencing technologies, the enormous genetic diversity in forest trees and the need to mitigate the effects of climate change. Research on long-lived woody perennials is extending our molecular knowledge of complex life histories and adaptations to the environment - enriching a field that has traditionally drawn biological inference from a few short-lived herbaceous species.

Leaf-level gas-exchange uniformity and photosynthetic capacity among loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) genotypes of contrasting inherent genetic variation

Variation in leaf-level gas exchange among widely planted genetically improved loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) genotypes could impact stand-level water use, carbon assimilation, biomass production, C allocation, ecosystem sustainability and biogeochemical cycling under changing environmental conditions. We examined uniformity in leaf-level light-saturated photosynthesis (A(sat)), stomatal conductance (g(s)), and intrinsic water-use efficiency (A(sat)/g(s) or δ) among nine loblolly pine genotypes (selected individuals): three clones, three full-sib families and three half-sib families, during the early years of stand development (first 3 years), with each genetic group possessing varying amounts of inherent genetic variation. We also compared light- and CO(2)-response parameters between genotypes and examined the relationship between genotype productivity, gas exchange and photosynthetic capacity. Within full-sib, half-sib and clonal genotypes, the coefficient of variation (CV) for gas exchange showed no consistent pattern; the CV for g(s) and δ was similar within clonal (44.3-46.9 and 35.5-38.6%) and half-sib (41.0-49.3 and 36.8-40.9%) genotypes, while full-sibs showed somewhat higher CVs (46.9-56.0 and 40.1-45.4%). In contrast, the CVs for A(sat) were generally higher within clones. With the exception of δ, differences in gas exchange among genotypes were generally insignificant. Tree volume showed a significant positive correlation with A(sat) and δ, but the relationship varied by season. Individual-tree volume and genotype volume were positively correlated with needle dark respiration (R(d)). Our results suggest that uniformity in leaf-level physiological rates is not consistently related to the amount of genetic variation within a given genotype, and δ, A(sat) and R(d) were the leaf-level physiological parameters that were most consistently related to individual-tree and genotype productivity. An enhanced understanding of molecular and environmental factors that influence physiological variation within and between loblolly pine genotypes may improve assessments of genotype growth potential and sensitivity to global climate change.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.