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Xu D, Zhuo Z, Wang R, Ye M, Pu B. Modeling the distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in China with MaxEnt modeling. Glob Ecol Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
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152
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Denninger Snyder K, Mneney PB, Wittemyer G. Predicting the risk of illegal activity and evaluating law enforcement interventions in the western Serengeti. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.81] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kristen Denninger Snyder
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation BiologyColorado State University Fort Collins Colorado
- Grumeti Fund Mugumu Tanzania
| | | | - George Wittemyer
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation BiologyColorado State University Fort Collins Colorado
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153
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Burke RA, Frey JK, Ganguli A, Stoner KE. Species distribution modelling supports “nectar corridor” hypothesis for migratory nectarivorous bats and conservation of tropical dry forest. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rachel A. Burke
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Ecology New Mexico State University Las Cruces New Mexico
| | - Jennifer K. Frey
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Ecology New Mexico State University Las Cruces New Mexico
| | - Amy Ganguli
- Department of Animal and Range Sciences New Mexico State University Las Cruces New Mexico
| | - Kathryn E. Stoner
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Ecology New Mexico State University Las Cruces New Mexico
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado
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154
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Liu B, Gao X, Ma J, Jiao Z, Xiao J, Hayat MA, Wang H. Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 664:203-214. [PMID: 30743113 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2018] [Revised: 01/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Muhammad Abid Hayat
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
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155
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Li J, Wu J, Peng K, Fan G, Yu H, Wang W, He Y. Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys. PeerJ 2019; 7:e6730. [PMID: 31024763 PMCID: PMC6474333 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.6730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2018] [Accepted: 03/06/2019] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value. Methods The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables. Results The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junjun Li
- College of Medical Technology, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
| | - Jie Wu
- Ganzi Prefecture Forest Research Institute, Kangding, China
| | - Kezhong Peng
- Ganzi Prefecture Forest Research Institute, Kangding, China
| | - Gang Fan
- College of Medical Technology, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
| | - Haiqing Yu
- Ganzi Prefecture Forest Research Institute, Kangding, China
| | - Wenguo Wang
- Biogas Institute of Ministry of Agriculture, Chengdu, China
| | - Yang He
- College of Medical Technology, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
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156
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Peng LP, Cheng FY, Hu XG, Mao JF, Xu XX, Zhong Y, Li SY, Xian HL. Modelling environmentally suitable areas for the potential introduction and cultivation of the emerging oil crop Paeonia ostii in China. Sci Rep 2019; 9:3213. [PMID: 30824717 PMCID: PMC6397192 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39449-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2017] [Accepted: 01/09/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Paeonia ostii is a traditional ornamental and medicinal species that has attracted considerable interest for its high oil value. To facilitate the effective and rational cultivation and application of P. ostii in China, it is necessary to determine its potential spatial habitat distribution and environmental requirements. Using high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, the potential suitable area and climatic requirements of P. ostii were modelled. Among the 11 environmental variables investigated, growing degree days, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, global UV-B radiation, annual precipitation, and soil pH played major roles in determining the suitability of a habitat for the cultivation of P. ostii. Under the current environmental conditions in China, a total area of 20.31 × 105 km2 is suitable for growing P. ostii, accounting for 21.16% of the country's total land area. Under the two future climate scenario/year combinations (i.e., representative concentration pathways [RCPs], RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2050), this species would increase its suitable area at high latitudes while decrease at low latitudes. These results present valuable information and a theoretical reference point for identifying the suitable cultivation areas of P. ostii.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li-Ping Peng
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Fang-Yun Cheng
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
| | - Xian-Ge Hu
- Key Laboratory of Genetics and Breeding in Forest Trees and Ornamental Plants, Ministry of Education, College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Jian-Feng Mao
- Key Laboratory of Genetics and Breeding in Forest Trees and Ornamental Plants, Ministry of Education, College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
| | - Xing-Xing Xu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Yuan Zhong
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - San-Yuan Li
- Forestry Department of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710082, China
| | - Hong-Li Xian
- Forestry Department of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710082, China
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157
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Zhang K, Zhang Y, Zhou C, Meng J, Sun J, Zhou T, Tao J. Impact of climate factors on future distributions of Paeonia ostii across China estimated by MaxEnt. ECOL INFORM 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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158
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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae) in China by Incorporating Climate Change into a Maxent Model. FORESTS 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/f10020190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
A detailed understanding of species distribution is usually a prerequisite for the rehabilitation and utilization of species in an ecosystem. Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae), which is an endemic species of China, is an ornamental and medicinal plant that features high economic and ecological values. With the decrease of its population in recent decades, it has become a locally endangered species. In present study, we modeled the potential distribution of P. veitchii under current and future conditions, and evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution. The results revealed a highly and moderately suitable habitat for P. veitchii that encompassed ca. 605,114 km2. The central area lies in northwest Sichuan Province. Elevation, temperature seasonality, annual mean precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were identified as the most important factors shaping the distribution of P. veitchii. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6), we predicted an overall expansion of the potential distribution by 2050, followed by a slight contraction in 2070. However, with the scenario featuring intense greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5), the range of suitable habitat should increase with the increasing intensity of global warming. The information that was obtained in the present study can provide background information related to the long-term conservation of this species.
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159
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Chen Q, Yin Y, Zhao R, Yang Y, Teixeira da Silva JA, Yu X. Incorporating Local Adaptation Into Species Distribution Modeling of Paeonia mairei, an Endemic Plant to China. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2019; 10:1717. [PMID: 32047503 PMCID: PMC6997482 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2019.01717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2019] [Accepted: 12/06/2019] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), a culturally and economically important plant genus, has an isolated taxonomy while the evolution of this genus is unclear. A plant species endemic to southwest China, Paeonia mairei is precious germplasm for evolution-related research and cultivar improvement, and its conservation is urgent. However, little is known about its patterns of habitat distribution and responses to climate change. Using 98 occurrence sites and data of 19 bioclimatic variables, we conducted principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to delineate different climatic populations. Maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was applied to each population to evaluate the importance of environmental variables in shaping their distribution, and to identify distribution shifts under different climate change scenarios. We also applied MaxEnt to all of the P. mairei presence sites (P_Whole) to evaluate the need to construct separate species distribution models for separate populations rather than a common approach by treating them as a whole. Our results show that local adaptation exists within the distribution range of P. mairei and that all presence sites were clustered into a western population (P_West) and an eastern population (P_East). Two variables (precipitation of the driest month and temperature seasonality) are important when shaping the distribution of P_West, and another two variables (mean diurnal range and mean temperature of the wettest quarter) are important for P_East. Both populations are likely to shift upward under climate change, while P_East may lose most current suitable areas while P_West may not. P_Whole produced a narrower area compared to the combination of P_West and P_East but a suitable area (south Chongqing) may have been missed in the prediction. Accordingly, a population-based approach in constructing a species distribution model is needed to provide a detailed appreciation of the distribution of P. mairei, allowing for a population-based conservation strategy. In this case, it could include assisted migration to new and suitable distribution areas for P_West and in situ conservation in high elevation regions for P_East. The results of our study could be a useful reference for implementing the long-term conservation and further research of P. mairei.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qihang Chen
- College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, Beijing, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing, China
- Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing, China
| | - Yijia Yin
- College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, Beijing, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing, China
- Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing, China
| | - Rui Zhao
- College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, Beijing, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing, China
- Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Yang
- College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, Beijing, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing, China
- Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing, China
| | | | - Xiaonan Yu
- College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Ornamental Plants Germplasm Innovation & Molecular Breeding, Beijing, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Floriculture, Beijing, China
- Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecological Environment, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Xiaonan Yu,
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160
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Zhu Y, Wei W, Li H, Wang B, Yang X, Liu Y. Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios. Glob Ecol Conserv 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
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