The cane toad's (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) increasing ability to invade Australia is revealed by a dynamically updated range model

Comparisons through time and space suggest rapid evolution of dispersal behaviour in an invasive species

During a biological invasion, we expect that the expanding front will increasingly become dominated by individuals with better dispersal abilities. Over many generations, selection at the invasion front thus will favour traits that increase dispersal rates. As a result of this process, cane toads (Bufo marinus) are now spreading through tropical Australia about 5-fold faster than in the early years of toad invasion; but how have toads changed to make this happen? Here we present data from radio-tracking of free-ranging cane toads from three populations (spanning a 15-year period of the toads’ Australian invasion, and across 1800 km). Our data reveal dramatic shifts in behavioural traits (proportion of nights when toads move from their existing retreat-site to a new one, and distance between those successive retreat-sites) associated with the rapid acceleration of toad invasion. Over a maximum period of 70 years (~50 generations), cane toads at the invasion front in Australia apparently have evolved such that populations include a higher proportion of individuals that make long, straight moves.

Predicting the ecological impact of cane toads (Bufo marinus) on threatened camaenid land snails in north-western Australia

The spread of cane toads (Bufo marinus) through north-western Australia may threaten populations of endemic camaenid land snails because these snails exhibit restricted geographic distributions, low vagility and ‘slow’ life-histories. We conducted laboratory trials to determine whether toads would consume camaenids if they encountered them, and conducted field surveys to evaluate the likelihood of such encounters (on the basis of habitat overlap). In laboratory trials with 13 camaenid species, cane toads were more likely to consume camaenids than were two species of native frogs that we tested (Cyclorana australis, Litoria caerulea). However, field surveys suggested that many camaenids are active on vertical surfaces in limestone outcrops, and cane toads rarely venture into these habitats. Although the preferred habitats and activity patterns of camaenids thus reduce their vulnerability to cane toads, we recommend regular surveys of toad and snail numbers to monitor toad impacts. Given the restricted distributions of threatened saxicoline camaenid species in the Kimberley, localised management of grazing stock and fire is feasible to maintain vine-thicket vegetation cover and snail populations, as well as reducing open habitats favoured by toads.

Origin of the parasites of an invading species, the Australian cane toad (Bufo marinus): are the lungworms Australian or American?

Phylogeographical analyses that identify the geographical origin of parasites in invading species can clarify the parasites' potential for biological control of the invader and the risks posed by the parasite to native species. Our data on nuclear and mitochondrial genetic sequences show that the nematode lungworms (Rhabdias spp.) in invasive Australian populations of cane toads (Bufo marinus) are Rhabdias pseudosphaerocephala, a South American species. We did not find this lungworm species in any Australian frogs sympatric with cane toads, suggesting that the parasite does not attack Australian frogs and hence may offer potential as a biocontrol agent of the toad.

Reid's paradox revisited: the evolution of dispersal kernels during range expansion

Current approaches to modeling range advance assume that the distribution describing dispersal distances in the population (the "dispersal kernel") is a static entity. We argue here that dispersal kernels are in fact highly dynamic during periods of range advance because density effects and spatial assortment by dispersal ability ("spatial selection") drive the evolution of increased dispersal on the expanding front. Using a spatially explicit individual-based model, we demonstrate this effect under a wide variety of population growth rates and dispersal costs. We then test the possibility of an evolved shift in dispersal kernels by measuring dispersal rates in individual cane toads (Bufo marinus) from invasive populations in Australia (historically, toads advanced their range at 10 km/year, but now they achieve >55 km/year in the northern part of their range). Under a common-garden design, we found a steady increase in dispersal tendency with distance from the invasion origin. Dispersal kernels on the invading front were less kurtotic and less skewed than those from origin populations. Thus, toads have increased their rate of range expansion partly through increased dispersal on the expanding front. For accurate long-range forecasts of range advance, we need to take into account the potential for dispersal kernels to be evolutionarily dynamic.

A toad more traveled: the heterogeneous invasion dynamics of cane toads in Australia

To predict the spread of invasive species, we need to understand the mechanisms that underlie their range expansion. Assuming random diffusion through homogeneous environments, invasions are expected to progress at a constant rate. However, environmental heterogeneity is expected to alter diffusion rates, especially by slowing invasions as populations encounter suboptimal environmental conditions. Here, we examine how environmental and landscape factors affect the local invasion speeds of cane toads (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) in Australia. Using high-resolution cane toad data, we demonstrate heterogeneous regional invasion dynamics that include both decelerating and accelerating range expansions. Toad invasion speed increased in regions characterized by high temperatures, heterogeneous topography, low elevations, dense road networks, and high patch connectivity. Regional increases in the toad invasion rate might be caused by environmental conditions that facilitate toad reproduction and movement, by the evolution of long-distance dispersal ability, or by some combination of these factors. In any case, theoretical predictions that neglect environmental influences on dispersal at multiple spatial scales may prove to be inaccurate. Early predictions of cane toad range expansion rates that assumed constant diffusion across homogeneous landscapes already have been proved wrong. Future attempts to predict range dynamics for invasive species should consider heterogeneity in (1) the environmental factors that determine dispersal rates and (2) the mobility of invasive populations because dispersal-relevant traits can evolve in exotic habitats. As an invasive species spreads, it is likely to encounter conditions that influence dispersal rates via one or both of these mechanisms.

Synergies between climate change, extinctions and invasive vertebrates

There is mounting evidence for the direct ecological impacts of recent climate change, and for amplifying feedbacks, in both directions, with other drivers of biodiversity loss, such as habitat fragmentation and overexploitation. Surprisingly, however, empirical and experimental data on the links between climate change and species introductions are scant, especially for invasive vertebrates. Because the theoretical basis for their mutually reinforced impact is strong, this dearth of evidence likely reflects the difficulty in studying such interactions, and insufficient attention to this topic, rather than a genuine lack of association. Given the unprecedented rate of recent and predicted future climate change, and the continued exponential rise in species invasions worldwide, it is imperative that we sharpen our scientific focus so as to best equip wildlife managers with the knowledge to tackle this inevitable synergy of threats.

The toad ahead: challenges of modelling the range and spread of an invasive species

An ability to predict the rate at which an organism spreads its range is of growing importance because the process of spread (during invasion by an exotic species) is almost identical to that occurring at the expanding range margins of a native species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. Thus, the methods used for modelling range spread can also be employed to assess the distributional implications of climate change. Here we review the history of research on the spread of cane toads in Australia and use this case study to broadly examine the benefits and pitfalls of various modelling approaches. We show that the problems of estimating the current range, predicting the future range, and predicting the spread rate are interconnected and inform each other. Generally, we argue that correlative approaches to range-prediction are unsuitable when applied to invasive species and suggest that mechanistic methods are beginning to look promising (despite being more difficult to execute), although robust comparisons of correlative versus mechanistic predictions are lacking. Looking to the future, we argue that mechanistic models of range advance (drawing from both population ecology and environmental variation) are the approaches most likely to yield robust predictions. The complexity of these approaches coupled with the steady rise in computing power means that they have only recently become computationally tractable. Thus, we suggest that the field is only recently in a position to incorporate the complexity necessary to robustly model the rate at which species shift their range.

Thermal tolerance in a south-east African population of the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes (Diptera, Glossinidae): implications for forecasting climate change impacts

For tsetse (Glossina spp.), the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiases, the physiological mechanisms linking variation in population dynamics with changing weather conditions have not been well established. Here, we investigate high- and low-temperature tolerance in terms of activity limits and survival in a natural population of adult Glossina pallidipes from eastern Zambia. Due to increased interest in chilling flies for handling and aerial dispersal in sterile insect technique control and eradication programmes, we also provide further detailed investigation of low-temperature responses. In wild-caught G. pallidipes, the probability of survival for 50% of the population at low-temperatures was at 3.7, 8.9 and 9.6 degrees C (95% CIs: +/-1.5 degrees C) for 1, 2 and 3 h treatments, respectively. At high temperatures, it was estimated that treatments at 37.9, 36.2 and 35.6 degrees C (95% CIs: +/-0.5 degrees C) would yield 50% population survival for 1, 2 and 3 h, respectively. Significant effects of time and temperature were detected at both temperature extremes (GLZ, p<0.05 in all cases) although a time-temperature interaction was only detected at high temperatures (p<0.0001). We synthesized data from four other Kenyan populations and found that upper critical thermal limits showed little variation among populations and laboratory treatments (range: 43.9-45.0 degrees C; 0.25 degrees C/min heating rate), although reduction to more ecologically relevant heating rates (0.06 degrees C/min) reduce these values significantly from approximately 44.4 to 40.6 degrees C, thereby providing a causal explanation for why tsetse distribution may be high-temperature limited. By contrast, low-temperature limits showed substantial variation among populations and acclimation treatments (range: 4.5-13.8 degrees C; 0.25 degrees C/min), indicating high levels of inter-population variability. Ecologically relevant cooling rates (0.06 degrees C/min) suggest tsetses are likely to experience chill coma temperatures under natural conditions (approximately 20-21 degrees C). The results from acute hardening experiments in the Zambian population demonstrate limited ability to improve low-temperature tolerance over short (hourly) timescales after non-lethal pre-treatments. In flies which survived chilling, recovery times were non-linear with plateaus between 2-6 and 8-12 degrees C. Survival times ranged between 4 and 36 h and did not vary between flies which had undergone chill coma by comparison with flies which had not, even after factoring body condition into the analyses (p>0.5 in all cases). However, flies with low chill coma values had the highest body water and fat content, indicating that when energy reserves are depleted, low-temperature tolerance may be compromised. Overall, these results suggest that physiological mechanisms may provide insight into tsetse population dynamics, hence distribution and abundance, and support a general prediction for reduced geographic distribution under future climate warming scenarios.