A null model of temporal trends in biological invasion records

Biological invasions are a growing aspect of global biodiversity change. In many regions, introduced species richness increases supralinearly over time. This does not, however, necessarily indicate increasing introduction rates or invasion success. We develop a simple null model to identify the expected trend in invasion records over time. For constant introduction rates and success, the expected trend is exponentially increasing. Model extensions with varying introduction rate and success can also generate exponential distributions. We then analyse temporal trends in aquatic, marine and terrestrial invasion records. Most data sets support an exponential distribution (15/16) and the null invasion model (12/16). Thus, our model shows that no change in introduction rate or success need be invoked to explain the majority of observed trends. Further, an exponential trend does not necessarily indicate increasing invasion success or 'invasional meltdown', and a saturating trend does not necessarily indicate decreasing success or biotic resistance.

Causes of exotic bird establishment across oceanic islands

The probability that exotic species will successfully establish viable populations varies between regions, for reasons that are currently unknown. Here, we use data for exotic bird introductions to 41 oceanic islands and archipelagos around the globe to test five hypotheses for this variation: the effects of introduction effort, competition, predation, human disturbance and habitat diversity (island biogeography). Our analyses demonstrate the primary importance of introduction effort for avian establishment success across regions, in concordance with previous analyses within regions. However, they also reveal a strong negative interaction across regions between establishment success and predation; exotic birds are more likely to fail on islands with species-rich mammalian predator assemblages.

Why islands are easier to invade: human influences on bullfrog invasion in the Zhoushan archipelago and neighboring mainland China

Islands are often considered easier to invade than mainland locations because of lower biotic resistance, but this hypothesis is difficult to test. We compared invasion success (the probability of establishing a wild reproducing population) for bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana) introduced to enclosures on 26 farms on islands in the Zhoushan archipelago and 15 farms in neighboring mainland China. Bullfrogs were more likely to invade farms located on islands with lower native frog species richness than mainland farms, consistent with the biotic resistance hypothesis. However, human frog hunting pressure also differed between islands and the mainland and, along with the number of bullfrogs raised in enclosures, was a stronger predictor of invasion success than native frog richness in multiple regression. Variation in hunting pressure was also able to account for the difference in invasion success between islands and mainlands: islands had lower hunting pressure and thus higher invasion probability. We conclude that the ease with which bullfrogs have invaded islands of the Zhoushan archipelago relative to the mainland has little to do with biotic resistance but results from variation in factors under human control.

The role of opportunity in the unintentional introduction of nonnative ants

A longstanding goal in the study of biological invasions is to predict why some species are successful invaders, whereas others are not. To understand this process, detailed information is required concerning the pool of species that have the opportunity to become established. Here we develop an extensive database of ant species unintentionally transported to the continental United States and use these data to test how opportunity and species-level ecological attributes affect the probability of establishment. This database includes an amount of information on failed introductions that may be unparalleled for any group of unintentionally introduced insects. We found a high diversity of species (232 species from 394 records), 12% of which have become established in the continental United States. The probability of establishment increased with the number of times a species was transported (propagule pressure) but was also influenced by nesting habit. Ground nesting species were more likely to become established compared with arboreal species. These results highlight the value of developing similar databases for additional groups of organisms transported by humans to obtain quantitative data on the first stages of the invasion process: opportunity and transport.

Scaling and power-laws in ecological systems

Scaling relationships (where body size features as the independent variable) and power-law distributions are commonly reported in ecological systems. In this review we analyze scaling relationships related to energy acquisition and transformation and power-laws related to fluctuations in numbers. Our aim is to show how individual level attributes can help to explain and predict patterns at the level of populations that can propagate at upper levels of organization. We review similar relationships also appearing in the analysis of aquatic ecosystems (i.e. the biomass spectra) in the context of ecological invariant relationships (i.e. independent of size) such as the `energetic equivalence rule' and the `linear biomass hypothesis'. We also discuss some power-law distributions emerging in the analysis of numbers and fluctuations in ecological attributes as they point to regularities that are yet to be integrated with traditional scaling relationships and which we foresee as an exciting area of future research.

Big brains, enhanced cognition, and response of birds to novel environments

The widely held hypothesis that enlarged brains have evolved as an adaptation to cope with novel or altered environmental conditions lacks firm empirical support. Here, we test this hypothesis for a major animal group (birds) by examining whether large-brained species show higher survival than small-brained species when introduced to nonnative locations. Using a global database documenting the outcome of >600 introduction events, we confirm that avian species with larger brains, relative to their body mass, tend to be more successful at establishing themselves in novel environments. Moreover, we provide evidence that larger brains help birds respond to novel conditions by enhancing their innovation propensity rather than indirectly through noncognitive mechanisms. These findings provide strong evidence for the hypothesis that enlarged brains function, and hence may have evolved, to deal with changes in the environment.