Understanding the cholera epidemic, Haiti

Re-emergence of Cholera in the Americas: Risks, Susceptibility, and Ecology

BACKGROUND

The re-emergence of cholera in Haiti has established a new reservoir for the seventh cholera pandemic which threatens to spread to other countries in the Americas.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Statistics from this new epidemic are compared to the 1991 Peru epidemic, which demonstrated the speed and complexity with which this disease can spread from country to country. Environmental factors implicated in the spread of Vibrio cholerae such as ocean currents and temperatures, as well as biotic factors from zooplankton to waterfowl pose a risk for many countries in the Americas.

RESULTS

The movement of people and goods from Hispaniola are mostly destined for North America, but occur to some degree throughout the Americas. These modes of transmission, and the probability of uncontrolled community spread beyond Hispaniola, however, are completely dependent upon risk factors within these countries such as water quality and availability of sanitation. Although North America has excellent coverage of these deterrents to the spread of infectious gastrointestinal diseases, many countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean lack these basic services and infrastructures.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to curb the immediate spread of cholera in Hispaniola, treatment availability should be expanded to all parts of the island and phase II epidemic management initiatives must be developed.

A cluster of acute diarrhea suspected to be cholera in French travelers in Haiti, December 2010

A cluster of 21 cases of watery diarrhea suspected to be cholera that involved French military policemen and young volunteers occurring in the context of the Haiti cholera outbreak is described. The attack rate (AR) was higher among young volunteers (71.4%) than among policemen (15.3%) (p < 0.0001). There was a significant association between raw vegetables consumption and watery diarrhea in the young volunteer group. If we consider the raw vegetables consumers only, AR was lower among doxycycline-exposed subjects (relative risk: 0.2; 95% confidence interval: 0.1-0.4). The main aspect that is of scientific interest is the potential prophylactic effect of doxycycline used for malaria prophylaxis on the watery diarrhea AR.

Development and evaluation of a PCR assay for tracking the emergence and dissemination of Haitian variant ctxB in Vibrio cholerae O1 strains isolated from Kolkata, India

A PCR-based assay was developed to discriminate the classical, El Tor, and Haitian types of ctxB alleles. Our retrospective study using this newly developed PCR showed that Haitian ctxB first appeared in Kolkata during April 2006, and 93.3% of strains isolated during 2011 carried the new allele. Dendrogram analysis showed a pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) pattern of the new variant strains isolated recently that was distinct from the PFGE pattern of the strains carrying classical ctxB that closely matched the 2006 to 2007 variant strains.

Clonal origins of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains, Papua New Guinea, 2009-2011

We used multilocus sequence typing and variable number tandem repeat analysis to determine the clonal origins of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains from an outbreak of cholera that began in 2009 in Papua New Guinea. The epidemic is ongoing, and transmission risk is elevated within the Pacific region.

Lessons learned during public health response to cholera epidemic in Haiti and the Dominican Republic

Safe water and sewage systems must be constructed to prevent future epidemics.

After epidemic cholera emerged in Haiti in October 2010, the disease spread rapidly in a country devastated by an earthquake earlier that year, in a population with a high proportion of infant deaths, poor nutrition, and frequent infectious diseases such as HIV infection, tuberculosis, and malaria. Many nations, multinational agencies, and nongovernmental organizations rapidly mobilized to assist Haiti. The US government provided emergency response through the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the US Agency for International Development and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This report summarizes the participation by the Centers and its partners. The efforts needed to reduce the spread of the epidemic and prevent deaths highlight the need for safe drinking water and basic medical care in such difficult circumstances and the need for rebuilding water, sanitation, and public health systems to prevent future epidemics.

Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in Great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008

Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Nino warm events (abnormally warm El Ninos) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.

Reassessment of the 2010-2011 Haiti cholera outbreak and rainfall-driven multiseason projections

Mathematical models can provide key insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic, potentially aiding real-time emergency management in allocating health care resources and by anticipating the impact of alternative interventions. We study the ex post reliability of predictions of the 2010-2011 Haiti cholera outbreak from four independent modeling studies that appeared almost simultaneously during the unfolding epidemic. We consider the impact of different approaches to the modeling of spatial spread of Vibrio cholerae and mechanisms of cholera transmission, accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities. To explain resurgences of the epidemic, we go on to include waning immunity and a mechanism explicitly accounting for rainfall as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The formal comparative analysis is carried out via the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to measure the added information provided by each process modeled, discounting for the added parameters. A generalized model for Haitian epidemic cholera and the related uncertainty is thus proposed and applied to the year-long dataset of reported cases now available. The model allows us to draw predictions on longer-term epidemic cholera in Haiti from multiseason Monte Carlo runs, carried out up to January 2014 by using suitable rainfall fields forecasts. Lessons learned and open issues are discussed and placed in perspective. We conclude that, despite differences in methods that can be tested through model-guided field validation, mathematical modeling of large-scale outbreaks emerges as an essential component of future cholera epidemic control.

Implications of the introduction of cholera to Haiti

With more than 250,000 cases and 4,000 deaths in the first 6 months, the cholera epidemic in Haiti has been one of the most explosive and deadly in recent history. It is also one of the best documented, with detailed surveillance information available from the beginning of the epidemic, which allowed its spread to all parts of the country to be traced. Piarroux et al. make good use of this information, along with their own careful field investigations, to trace the epidemic to its beginning and propose an explanation for its origins.

Understanding the cholera epidemic, Haiti

After the devastating outbreak of cholera in Haiti in mid-October 2010, several hypotheses have emerged regarding the origin of the outbreak. Some articles and media reports pointed to the United Nations peacekeepers from Nepal as the source. Piarroux et al. drew a similar conclusion from their epidemiologic study (1). Nepal did experience an outbreak of cholera during August–October 2010, in which 72 cases of infection with Vibrio cholerae O1, serotype Ogawa, were confirmed, mostly among young adult males. The cases peaked from mid-September to early October (Figure; Figure A1), and no deaths occurred. Despite this similarity in timing, I believe several points need to be considered before a firm conclusion is reached.

Population genetics of Vibrio cholerae from Nepal in 2010: evidence on the origin of the Haitian outbreak

Cholera continues to be an important cause of human infections, and outbreaks are often observed after natural disasters, such as the one following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Once the cholera outbreak was confirmed, rumors spread that the disease was brought to Haiti by a battalion of Nepalese soldiers serving as United Nations peacekeepers. This possible connection has never been confirmed. We used whole-genome sequence typing (WGST), pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and antimicrobial susceptibility testing to characterize 24 recent Vibrio cholerae isolates from Nepal and evaluate the suggested epidemiological link with the Haitian outbreak. The isolates were obtained from 30 July to 1 November 2010 from five different districts in Nepal. We compared the 24 genomes to 10 previously sequenced V. cholerae isolates, including 3 from the Haitian outbreak (began July 2010). Antimicrobial susceptibility and PFGE patterns were consistent with an epidemiological link between the isolates from Nepal and Haiti. WGST showed that all 24 V. cholerae isolates from Nepal belonged to a single monophyletic group that also contained isolates from Bangladesh and Haiti. The Nepalese isolates were divided into four closely related clusters. One cluster contained three Nepalese isolates and three Haitian isolates that were almost identical, with only 1- or 2-bp differences. Results in this study are consistent with Nepal as the origin of the Haitian outbreak. This highlights how rapidly infectious diseases might be transmitted globally through international travel and how public health officials need advanced molecular tools along with standard epidemiological analyses to quickly determine the sources of outbreaks.