Aetiology of cirrhosis of the liver has an impact on survival predicted by the Model of End-stage Liver Disease score

BACKGROUND

Originally, aetiology of liver disease has been incorporated into the computation of the Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Clinical observations prompted us to hypothesize that patients with viral and alcoholic cirrhosis may differ in predicted survival rates. Until now, no large representative studies evaluated the impact of aetiology on long-term survival predicted by the Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Four hundred and ninety-three patients who underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt implantation in Vienna, Austria, and Palermo, Italy, were included in this retrospective study. The main analyses were a logistic regression model and a Cox proportional hazards regression model calculating the interaction of the aetiology with the scores.

RESULTS

Both groups had similar survival rates (median 1377 and 1721 days for viral and alcoholic cirrhosis, respectively; P = 0.58), but patients with viral cirrhosis had significantly lower MELD scores (P = 0.002). In the Cox analysis, aetiology had a significant impact on the prediction of overall survival by MELD score. For 3-month survival, MELD score was adequately predictive for both groups. For 1-year survival, aetiology had a significant impact on survival, indicating that patients with identical scores but different aetiologies differed in survival rates. When stratifying patients into high- and low-risk patients (MELD < 16 vs. MELD >or= 16), aetiology of cirrhosis had no impact on the predictive value for low-risk patients; high-risk-patients (MELD >or= 16) with viral cirrhosis had significantly lower survival rates than patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and identical scores. With regard to Child-Pugh Score, no significant differences between the two patient groups and in the prediction of 3-month and 1-year survival could be observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that aetiology of cirrhosis has an impact on 1-year survival predicted by the MELD score. This becomes more apparent in patients with advanced stage of liver disease (MELD >or= 16). Since MELD score is used for ranking patients for liver transplantation and waiting times are regularly longer than 3 months, our observations suggest that with increasing time on the waiting list and severity of disease, patients with viral cirrhosis may have a disadvantage in the current allocation policy.

Elevated soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 75 concentrations identify patients with liver cirrhosis at risk of death

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Elevated levels of the soluble 75-kd receptor for tumor necrosis factor-alpha (sTNF-R 75) are better predictors of mortality in cirrhosis than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Thus, we compared sTNF-R 75 with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), CTP, and the sTNF-R 75/55 ratio.

METHODS

Ninety-two patients with liver cirrhosis (mean age, 55 years; range, 19-76 years; male, 66%; CTP stage C, 41%) were included in our prospective single-center survival study. The study setting was a tertiary care university clinic. Soluble TNF-R levels were determined, and the primary end point was death.

RESULTS

During > or =730 days, 44 patients died. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed sTNF-R 75 (> or =14 ng/mL) as an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 2.53; P = .006). By receiver operating characteristic, MELD and sTNF-R 75 were more accurate in predicting 6-, 15-, and 24-month mortality than CTP and sTNF-R 75/55. This was significant for 6 months (MELD, 0.78; sTNF-R 75, 0.75 vs sTNF-R 75/55, 0.60). In patients with high MELD scores (> or =15), survival was further reduced if sTNF-R 75 values were elevated (P = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated sTNF-R 75 levels independently predicted mortality and improved MELD on the basis of evaluation of prognosis, especially in patients with high MELD scores. Thus, sTNF-R 75 levels might be a useful cytokine-based prognostic marker in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Prediction value of model for end-stage liver disease scoring system on prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure after plasma exchange and lamivudine treatment

BACKGROUND AND AIM

We used the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system to predict the 3-month prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) after plasma exchange (PE) and lamivudine treatment, and studied the predictive factors on the prognosis of patients.

METHODS

A total of 280 patients treated with lamivudine were randomly divided into PE and control groups. The relationship between mortality and influential factors of patients was studied by univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The mortality (49.4%) of patients in the PE group with a MELD score from 30 to 40 was lower than that (86.1%) of the control group (chi(2) = 24.546, P < 0.01). The total bilirubin (TBIL) rebound rate of the dead group was significantly higher than that of the survival group (P < 0.01). Univariate analysis showed that mortality was significantly related to age (P = 0.003), treatment method (P = 0.000), TBIL (P = 0.010), MELD score (P = 0.001), international normalised ratio (P = 0.014), pretreatment HBV-DNA load (P = 0.000), decline of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA load during therapy (P = 0.013), encephalopathy (P = 0.019), and hepatorenal syndrome (P = 0.026). In multivariate analysis, MELD scores of 30-40, treatment method (P = 0.003), pretreatment HBV-DNA load (P = 0.009), decline of HBV-DNA load during therapy (P = 0.016), and encephalopathy (P = 0.015) were independent predictors of mortality; for MELD scores above 40, only the MELD score (P = 0.012) was an independent predictive.

CONCLUSIONS

PE significantly decreased the mortality of patients with a MELD score of 30-40. For ACLF patients with a MELD score of 30-40, a low viral load pretreatment and quick decline of HBV-DNA load are good predictors for the survival with PE and lamivudine treatment.

Use of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 1-year survival of Japanese patients with cirrhosis and to determine who will benefit from living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Consideration of the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis is important when determining the appropriate timing of liver transplantation. Especially in Japan, where 99% of liver transplants are from living donors, timing is very important not only for the patient but also for the family, who need time to consider the various factors involved in living donations.

METHODS

To clarify the applicability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in Japanese patients with cirrhosis, changes in the MELD score over 24 months were reviewed in 79 patients with cirrhosis who subsequently died of liver failure (n=33) or who survived 24 months (n=46). All patients had Child class B or C cirrhosis at the start of follow-up. We also compared their survival with that of 30 patients treated by living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in our institute to determine the proper timing of transplantation in patients with cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Significant stratification of survival curves was observed for MELD scores of <12, 12-15, 15-18, and >18 (P=0.0018). A significant survival benefit of LDLT was observed in patients with MELD score >or=15 (P=0.0181), and significantly more risk with transplantation was observed in those with MELD score <15 compared with that of patients in whom the disease followed its natural course (P=0.0168).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score is useful for predicting 1-year survival in Japanese patients with cirrhosis. MELD scores of 15 had discriminatory value for indicating a survival benefit to be gained by liver transplantation and thus can be used to help patients and their families by identifying patients who would benefit from LDLT.

Selecting an optimal prognostic system for liver cirrhosis: the model for end-stage liver disease and beyond

In comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system, recent studies suggested that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) may more accurately predict the survival for patients with cirrhosis. In the US, the liver allocation system was changed in 2002 from a status-based algorithm utilizing CTP scores to one using continuous MELD severity scores as a reference system in prioritizing adult patients on the waiting list. Direct evidence that demonstrates the benefits of MELD is the fact that the mortality rates of transplant candidates on the waiting list have remarkably decreased after the implementation of the MELD. The MELD score is closely associated with the degree of portal hypertension as reflected by the hepatic venous pressure gradient. Hyponatraemia occurs as a result of advanced cirrhosis, and a serum sodium (Na) level <126 mEq/L at the time of listing for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Several MELD-derived prognostic models that incorporate serum Na into calculation have been proposed in the hopes of further improving the MELD's prognostic accuracy. Additionally, serum parameters such as creatinine and international normalized ratio are subject to interlaboratory variations and may need unifying standartisations. Patients with refractory complications of cirrhosis may need a priority MELD score to prioritize them on the waiting list. Appropriate modifications and the fine-tuning of the MELD based on well-designed prospective studies are necessary in solving the current controversial issues.

Impairment of health-related quality of life in functional dyspepsia and chronic liver disease: the influence of depression and anxiety

BACKGROUND

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a marker of disease severity. Data on the relative impairment of HRQOL in chronic liver disease (CLD) and functional gastrointestinal disorders are lacking and no studies have assessed the link between impairment of HRQOL and psychosocial factors yet.

AIM

To assess predictors for, and the impairment of, HRQOL in CLD and FD.

METHODS

In 181 functional dyspepsia (FD) patients, 204 CLD patients and 337 healthy blood donors, HRQOL was assessed with the Short Form-36 (mental and physical component), and anxiety and depression utilizing the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale.

RESULTS

Compared with HC, HRQOL is significantly lower in FD and CLD (P-value for all <0.001). The mental but not physical component of HRQOL was significantly more impaired in FD compared with CLD (P < 0.05). After adjusting for confounders, impairment of mental (P < 0.001) and physical (P = 0.005) component of HRQOL was associated with the severity of CLD and FD. In FD, the multivariate analysis revealed depression and severity of symptoms as the most important predictors of HRQOL (R2 = 21.9 and 7.1). In CLD, the mental component of HRQOL was associated with depression and anxiety (R(2) = 9.9 and 9.7).

CONCLUSIONS

In tertiary care, HRQOL is more severely impaired in FD compared with CLD. Co-morbid psychiatric conditions significantly contribute to the impairment of HRQOL.

Child-Pugh-Turcott versus Meld score for predicting survival in a retrospective cohort of black African cirrhotic patients

AIM: To compare the performance of the Child-Pugh-Turcott (CPT) score to that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting survival of a retrospective cohort of 172 Black African patients with cirrhosis on a short and mid-term basis.

METHODS: Univariate and multivariate (Cox model) analyses were used to identify factors related to mortality. Relationship between the two scores was appreciated by calculating the correlation coefficient. The Kaplan Meier method and the log rank test were used to elaborate and compare survival respectively. The Areas Under the Curves were used to compare the performance between scores at 3, 6 and 12 mo.

RESULTS: The study population comprised 172 patients, of which 68.9% were male. The mean age of the patient was 47.5 ± 13 years. Hepatitis B virus infection was the cause of cirrhosis in 70% of the cases. The overall mortality was 31.4% over 11 years of follow up. Independent factors significantly associated with mortality were: CPT score (HR = 3.3, 95% CI [1.7-6.2]) (P < 0.001) (stage C vs stage A-B); Serum creatine (HR = 2.5, 95% CI [1.4-4.3]) (P = 0.001) (Serum creatine > 1.5 mg/dL versus serum creatine < 1.5 mg/dL); MELD score (HR = 2.9, 95% CI [1.63-5.21]) (P < 0.001) (MELD > 21 vs MELD < 21). The area under the curves (AUC) that predict survival was 0.72 and 0.75 at 3 mo (P = 0.68), 0.64 and 0.62 at 6 mo (P = 0.67), 0.69 and 0.64 at 12 mo (P = 0.38) respectively for the CPT score and the MELD score.

CONCLUSION: The CPT score displays the same prognostic significance as does the MELD score in black African patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, its handling appears less cumbersome in clinical practice as compared to the latter.

An integrated MELD model including serum sodium and age improves the prediction of early mortality in patients with cirrhosis

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is widely used to predict the short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but potential limitations of this score have been reported. The aim of this study was to improve the score's prognostic accuracy by assessing new objective variables. Data of 310 consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement between July 1995 and March 2005 were analyzed retrospectively. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed by proportional hazard Cox regression models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) and the likelihood ratio test were used to evaluate the performance of the models for predicting early mortality. Findings were validated in a cohort of 451 consecutive patients with cirrhosis on waiting list for liver transplantation. Bivariate analyses showed that the following variables correlated with time to death: age, serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, serum albumin, serum sodium, and MELD. Multivariate analysis revealed that MELD, serum sodium, and age were independently associated with the risk of death. The integrated MELD model (iMELD, incorporating serum sodium and age) was better than original MELD in predicting 12-month mortality: auROC increased by 13.4% and the likelihood ratio statistic from 23.5 to 48.2. The improved accuracy of iMELD was confirmed in the validation sample of 451 patients with cirrhosis on the waiting list for liver transplantation by increasing auROC (+8%) and likelihood ratio statistic (from 41.4 to 82.0). This study shows that in patients with cirrhosis, serum sodium and age are predictors of mortality independent of the MELD score. The incorporation of these variables into the original MELD formula improves the predictive accuracy of time to death.

Correlation and comparison of the model for end-stage liver disease, portal pressure, and serum sodium for outcome prediction in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), and serum sodium (SNa) are important prognostic markers for patients with liver cirrhosis. The correlation among these markers and their predictive accuracy for survival are unclear.

METHODS

A total of 213 cirrhotic patients undergoing hemodynamic measurement were analyzed. The correlations between MELD score, SNa, and hemodynamic parameters were investigated.

RESULTS

There was a significant correlation between MELD and HVPG (r=0.255, P<0.001), between SNa and MELD (r=-0.483, P<0.001), and between HVPG and SNa (r=-0.213, P=0.002). Using mortality as the end-point, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for MELD was 0.789, compared with 0.659 for HVPG (P=0.165) and 0.860 for SNa (P=0.34) at 3 months; the difference between HVPG and SNa was significant (P=0.015). The AUC at 6 months was significantly higher for SNa and MELD compared with that of HVPG. Among 134 patients with low (<14) MELD scores, a high (>16 mm Hg) HVPG, and low SNa (<135 mEq/L) predicted early mortality. In the Cox multivariate model, MELD, HVPG, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores were consistently identified as independent poor prognostic predictors when they were treated either as dichotomous or continuous variables in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score is closely associated with HVPG and SNa in cirrhotic patients. HVPG is not superior to MELD score or SNa for short-term outcome prediction. High HVPG and low SNa may identify high-risk patients with low MELD scores. High MELD, HVPG, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores are independent predictors of poor long-term survival.

Impact of Pretransplant MELD Score on Posttransplant Outcome in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation for Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure

This study was performed to evaluate the usefulness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to predict short-term postoperative survival and 3-month morbidity among patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from all patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation in our unit from December 1999 to November 2005, on the admission day MELD and CTP scores were calculated for each patient according to the original formula. We evaluated the accuracy of MELD and CTP to predict postoperative short-term survival and 3-month morbidity using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

Seven of 42 patients died within 3-months follow-up. The MELD scores for nonsurvivors (32.97 +/- 7.11) were significantly higher than those for survivors (24.90 +/- 4.96; P < .05), CTP scores were significantly higher, too (12.57 +/- 0.98, 11.51 +/- 1.17; P < .05). ROC analysis identified the MELD best cut-off point to be 25.67 to predict postoperative morbidity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.841; sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 60.0%), and the CTP best cut-off point was 11.5 (AUC = 0.747; sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 54.3%). MELD score was superior to CTP score to predict postoperative short-term survival and 3-month morbidity among patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation.

CONCLUSION

MELD score was an objective predictive system and more efficient than CTP score to evaluate the risk of 3-month morbidity and short-term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation.

Can the model for end-stage liver disease be used to predict the prognosis in patients with Budd-Chiari syndrome?

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is a widely accepted and objective scoring system for end-stage liver disease (ESLD) but has never been evaluated for Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS). We investigated whether MELD can be used to predict survival in patients with BCS. Patients with BCS (n = 237) were obtained from a large international study. Patients with ESLD (n = 281) were used to compare the discriminative ability of MELD in BCS versus other chronic liver diseases. MELD and the Rotterdam BCS index, a recently developed prognostic index for BCS, were calculated with standard equations. Receiver operating characteristic curves and concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to assess the models' ability to predict 1-year survival. The median MELD score was 12.5 (range = -7.4 to 43.4) for BCS and 11.3 (-3.0 to 49.5) for ESLD (P = 0.12). The c-statistic of MELD in BCS was 0.695 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.59-0.80], in contrast to 0.848 (95% CI = 0.80-0.90) in ESLD. Survival was significantly poorer in ESLD than in BCS (P < 0.001). The c-statistic of the Rotterdam BCS index was 0.760 (95% CI = 0.67-0.85). The correlation between MELD and the Rotterdam BCS index was 0.61, and most of the discrepancy existed in BCS patients with a high prevalence of ascites and encephalopathy and preserved liver function. The addition of ascites and encephalopathy to MELD improved the c-statistic to 0.751 (95% CI = 0.65-0.85). In conclusion, MELD showed a suboptimal discriminative ability to predict survival in BCS. This was explained by the highly variable degree of liver dysfunction and hence clinical outcome in BCS in contrast to ESLD.

Pretransplant management of the cirrhotic patient

Cirrhosis is the twelfth commonest cause of death in the United States, with more than 27,000 deaths and more than 421,000 hospitalizations annually. Currently, there are more than 17,000 patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States across the 11 United Network for Organ Sharing regions. Approximately 10% of such patients will die awaiting transplantation.

Management of Patients Who Have Undergone Hepatic Artery Chemoembolization

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cause of all malignancies and causes approximately one million deaths each year. Surgical liver resection is the only cure for HCC; however, few patients are eligible to undergo this procedure. Hepatic artery chemoembolization (HACE) is a technique that delivers high concentrations of chemotherapeutic agents and blocks the blood supply to the liver for prolonged periods of time. HACE has demonstrated an overall increase in survival. The HACE procedure, pre- and postprocedure complications, and the care required by patients with HCC are critical for oncology nurses to understand.

Capability of end-stage liver disease model in predicting the prognosis of Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis

AIM: To evaluate the capability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting the prognosis of Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS: A cohort of 216 patients with liver cirrhosis were retrospectively studied and followed up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare MELD, U-MELD (MELD modified by the United Network for Organ Sharing), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and classification in predicting accuracy. MELD score was obtained for each patient according to the modified formula by Kamath. U-MELD score was obtained according to the modified formula by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Nonparametric approach was applied for the comparison of AUC.

RESULTS: The AUC value generated by the ROC curve for MELD was 0.838 at 3 mo, 0.856 at 6 mo and 0.877 at 1 year. MELD was better than CTP classification, and there was significant difference between them. However, there was no significant difference between MELD and CTP score. U-MELD was more accurate than CTP score in predicting the 3-mo prognosis (P = 0.028), while it did not show significant superiority in predicting 6-mo and 1-year prognosis.

CONCLUSION: There is no significant difference between MELD and CTP score, but U-MELD is superior to CTP score in predicting the 3-mo prognosis.

Limitation of the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis-related complications

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Bleeding esophageal varices, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy are major complications of cirrhosis and traditional indications for liver transplantation evaluation. However, these complications are not included in the MELD and it is not clear if these complications correlate with MELD score in terms of outcome prediction. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of cirrhosis-related complication as a prognostic predictor in 290 cirrhotic patients. The MELD score and outcome were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis-related complications. There was no significant difference of the MELD score between patients with (n = 67) and without (n = 223) complications (11.6 +/- 2.9 vs. 12.2 +/- 3.2, p = 0.184). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 for MELD vs. 0.604 for complications (p = 0.174) at six months, and the area was 0.641 for MELD vs. 0.611 for complications (p = 0.522) at 12 months. A high MELD score and presence of complications had a similar profile of predictive accuracy and both were significant predictors of mortality at six and 12 months in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients with cirrhosis-related complications at presentation had a decreased survival compared with those without complications (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a predictor of poor prognosis. While early transplantation referral is recommended, these patients do not necessarily have a higher MELD score and could be down-staged in the MELD era.

Impact of cirrhosis on outcomes in trauma

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis as an independent predictor of poor outcomes in trauma patients was identified in 1990. We hypothesized that the degree of preinjury hepatic dysfunction is, by itself, an independent predictor of mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

The trauma registry at our Level I trauma center was queried for all ICD-9 codes for liver disease from 1999 to 2003, and patients were categorized as having Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A, B, or C cirrhosis. Data analyzed included age, mechanism of injury, Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), hospital length of stay, ventilator days, procedures performed, transfusion of blood products, admission lactate, base deficit, and mortality. Trauma Related Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology was used to calculate the probability of survival. Outcomes data were analyzed, and statistical comparison was performed using group t-test.

RESULTS

Of the 50 patients meeting study criteria, 31 had alcohol-related cirrhosis, 18 had a history of hepatitis C, and 1 had cryptogenic cirrhosis. Twenty (40%) met CTP A classification, 16 (32%) met CTP B criteria, and 14 (28%) had CTP class C cirrhosis. One death occurred in the CTP A and B groups. Comparison between the five survivors and nine nonsurvivors from CTP class C showed no statistical significance in terms of age, ISS, TRISS, or GCS.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality rate for class C cirrhotic patients posttrauma continues to be higher than that predicted by TRISS, although patients with less severe hepatic dysfunction do not appear to have significantly lower than predicted survival. The degree of hepatic dysfunction remains an independent predictor of mortality and CTP C criteria must be considered when determining outcomes for patients posttrauma.

Prediction of the prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis using the MELD scoring system

AIM

To predict prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis (AOCH) using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system and to study the effects of age, sex, etiology, low serum sodium, and persistent ascites on MELD.

METHODS

The MELD scores of 300 patients with AOCH were calculated according to the original formula. The 3-month mortality in patients was measured, and the validity of the models was determined by means of the concordance (c) statistic. The influential factors on MELD were also assessed.

RESULTS

The 3-month mortality of AOCH patients with a MELD score of 20-29 was 56.0%, with a score of 30-39 it was 76.5%, and with a score over 40 it was 98.2%. The concordance (c) statistic of 3-month mortality was 0.782. Univariate analysis showed that mortality was significantly related to age (P=0.047), etiology (P=0.039), serum sodium (P=0.029) and ascites (P=0.031) for patients with MELD scores 20-29. In multivariate analysis, in patients with MELD scores 20-29, age (P=0.012), etiology (P=0.024), serum sodium (P=0.005) and ascites (P=0.017) were independent predictors of mortality; for MELD scores above 30, only MELD score (P=0.015) was independently predictive.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD scoring system is a reliable method for predicting mortality in patients with AOCH. In the group with MELD score 20-29, factors including age, etiology, presence of low serum sodium and persistent ascites may influence the MELD scoring system. The MELD score is the decisive predictor of the prognosis of patients with AOCH when the MELD score is over 30.

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for the management of cirrhotic refractory ascites

Cirrhotic ascites results from sinusoidal hypertension and sodium retention, which is secondary to a decreased effective arterial blood volume. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement is currently indicated in cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites who require large-volume paracentesis (LVP) more than two or three times per month. TIPS placement is associated with normalization of sinusoidal pressure and a significant improvement in urinary sodium excretion that correlates with suppression of plasma renin activity, which is, itself, indicative of an improvement in effective arterial blood volume. Compared with serial LVP, placement of an uncovered TIPS stent is more effective at preventing ascites from recurring; however, increased incidence of hepatic encephalopathy and shunt dysfunction rates after TIPS placement are important issues that increase its cost. Although evidence suggests that TIPS placement might result in better patient survival, this needs to be confirmed, particularly in light of the development of polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stents. Favorable results apply to centers experienced in placing the TIPS, with the aim being to decrease the portosystemic gradient to <12 mmHg but >5 mmHg. This article reviews the pathophysiologic basis for the use of a TIPS in patients with refractory ascites, the results of controlled trials comparing TIPS placement (using uncovered stents) versus LVP, and a systematic review of predictors of death after TIPS placement for refractory ascites.

The sequential changes of the model for end-stage liver disease score correlate with the severity of liver cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. It is not clear whether MELD correlates with liver functional reserve that changes over time. This study investigated the correlation of sequential changes between MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A total of 192 HCC patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection therapy were studied.

RESULTS

The MELD and CTP scores of study patients at pretreatment, early (median, 2 wk) and late (median, 8 wk) stage after treatment were 10.1+/-3.5, 12.9+/-3.2, and 11.7+/-3.1, and 6.2+/-1.1, 7.5+/-1.1, and 6.9+/-1.2, respectively. There was a significant correlation of the serial changes for the period between pretreatment and early stage (rho=0.605, P<0.001), and between early to late stage (rho=0.512, P<0.001) after treatment. The corresponding increase and decrease of MELD score was 2.1 and 2.0, respectively, per unit change of the CTP score. The correlation was still significant in the stratified analysis according to various clinical parameters. In the Cox multivariate model, tumor size >5 cm [relative risk (RR)=2.58, P<0.001], multiple HCCs (RR=1.78, P=0.013), CTP class B or C (RR=3.06, P<0.001), and MELD score >15 (RR=2.17, P=0.023) were independent poor prognostic predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Serial determinations of the MELD score well correlate with the changes of CTP score. The MELD score may be useful in measuring liver functional reserve and outcome prediction in HCC patients undergoing locoregional therapy.

Evaluation of model for end-stage liver disease for prediction of mortality in decompensated chronic hepatitis B

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study the predictive ability of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) for short-term mortality in chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

All patients admitted from 1996 to 2003 because of chronic hepatitis B and its related complications were identified by electronic search of the hospital database. MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores on initial admissions were calculated. Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the factors associated with mortality. The area under receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) was used to determine the predictive abilities of the two models for 3-month and 1-yr mortalities.

RESULTS

A total of 2,073 patients was admitted because of liver-related problems and 506 patients had chronic hepatitis B-related complications. Two hundred fifty-six (51%) patients died and 16 (3%) patients underwent liver transplantation. In multivariate analysis, MELD and CTP scores were independent predictors of 3-month and 1-yr mortality. Other independent predictors of mortality included older age, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), lamivudine treatment, and lower serum sodium. At both 3 months and 1 yr, the AUC of the MELD score (0.65 and 0.63, respectively) was significantly lower than that of the CTP score (0.75 and 0.77, respectively) (p < 0.0001). The differences remained significant when only liver cirrhosis patients without HCC at presentation were analyzed, but the AUC of the two scores became comparable when patients on lamivudine were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD score is a valid prognostic model in decompensated chronic hepatitis B. Lamivudine treatment may affect the performance of MELD score. Other variables including those in CTP score may improve its predictive ability.

Proposal of a modified Cancer of the Liver Italian Program staging system based on the model for end-stage liver disease for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy

BACKGROUND

The Cancer of Liver Italian Program (CLIP) system was suggested as the primary staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is a better prognostic predictor for cirrhotic patients compared to Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system, which is a parameter used in the CLIP model.

AIM

To investigate the performance of the modified MELD-based CLIP systems.

METHODS

The CTP class in the CLIP model was replaced with MELD score (<10, 10-14, >14; modified CLIP-1), or additional 1 or 2 points were given to patients with MELD score 10-14 or >14, respectively (modified CLIP-2). The modified CLIP systems were compared with the original system in 343 HCC patients undergoing loco-regional therapy.

RESULTS

The original CLIP score in all patients was 1.2 +/- 1.1 (range 0-5), compared with 1.4 +/- 1.2 (range 0-5) for modified CLIP-1 and 1.7 +/- 1.4 (range 0-6) for modified CLIP-2 models (p < 0.001). Using mortality as the endpoint, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve for modified CLIP-2 system was 0.858 compared with 0.812 for modified CLIP-1 (p = 0.013) and 0.782 for original CLIP system (p < 0.001) at 12 months; the area was 0.879, 0.830, and 0.762, respectively (p all < 0.001) at 24 months. Survival analysis showed that the modified CLIP systems had a better long-term discriminatory ability for different score groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP model is useful to predict the outcome in HCC patients undergoing loco-regional therapy. The MELD-based modified CLIP systems may have a better predictive ability than the original model for cancer staging.

Model for end-stage liver disease and organ allocation in liver transplantation: where are we and where should we go?

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score has been used for decades to measure the severity of chronic liver disease. Recent studies have shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) more accurately predicts the short- and mid-term survival for patients with cirrhosis compared to the CTP system. MELD, which has 3 parameters (serum bilirubin, creatinine, and prothrombin time) that need logarithmic transformation, has the advantage of a wide-range continuous scale and is more objective and less variable. The liver allocation system has changed from a status-based algorithm using the CTP score, to one using a continuous MELD severity score as a reference system to prioritize adult patients on the waiting list since 2002 in the USA. However, there are potential limitations of MELD. An intrinsic defect is that some important parameters, such as hepatic encephalopathy and ascites, which are common adverse complications in cirrhosis, are not included in MELD. It has been suggested to incorporate a low serum sodium level into the prognostic model to enhance the predictive ability. Moreover, the change of MELD over time may provide updated information for patients on the transplant waiting list. In summary, although there was encouraging evidence supporting the prognostic advantage of MELD, the optimal role of MELD in the setting of outcome assessment for cirrhotic patients needs more study. Appropriate modifications and fine tuning of MELD are necessary for determining the ranking status of patients on the waiting list, to avoid a futile transplantation and improve overall patient survival.

Predictive indices of morbidity and mortality after liver resection

OBJECTIVE

To determine if use of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to elective resections accurately predicts short-term morbidity or mortality.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

MELD scores have been validated in the setting of end-stage liver disease for patients awaiting transplantation or undergoing transvenous intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures. Its use in predicting outcomes after elective hepatic resection has not been evaluated.

METHODS

Records of 587 patients who underwent elective hepatic resection and were included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database were reviewed. MELD score, CTP score, Charlson Index of Comorbidity, American Society of Anesthesiology classification, and age were evaluated for their ability to predict short-term morbidity and mortality. Morbidity was defined as the development of one or more of the following complications: pulmonary edema or embolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, renal failure or insufficiency, pneumonia, deep venous thrombosis, bleeding, deep wound infection, reoperation, or hyperbilirubinemia. The analysis was repeated with patients divided according to their procedure and their primary diagnosis. Parametric or nonparametric analyses were performed as appropriate. Also, a new index was developed by dividing the patients into a development and a validation cohort, to predict morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing elective hepatic resection. ROC curves were also constructed for each of the primary indices.

RESULTS

CTP and ASA scores were superior in predicting outcome. Also, patients undergoing resection of primary malignancies had a higher rate of mortality but no difference in morbidity.

CONCLUSION

MELD scores should not be used to predict outcomes in the setting of elective hepatic resection.

Different model for end-stage liver disease score block distributions may have a variable ability for outcome prediction

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system has become the prevailing criteria for organ allocation in liver transplantation. However, it is not clear if the predictive accuracy of MELD is equally homogeneous in different distribution of MELD score blocks.

METHODS

We investigated 472 cirrhotic patients (mean MELD, 14.3+/-5.5), and compared the predictive accuracy of MELD and the corresponding Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in patients with low (<16), intermediate (10-20) and high (>14) MELD score range by using c-statistic for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at different time frames.

RESULTS

The MELD scores well correlated with CTP scores at baseline (rho=0.492, P<0.001). Overall, MELD was significantly better than the CTP system to predict the risk of mortality. However, in stratified analysis there were no significant differences between MELD and CTP for the c-statistic in patients with low and intermediate range MELD scores at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month (p values all > 0 1). Among patients with high MELD scores, MELD was consistently more accurate than the CTP system in predicting the mortality at 3- (AUC, 0.715 vs. 0.543, P=0.020), 6- (0.705 vs. 0.536, P=0.003), 9- (0.737 vs. 0.507, P<0.001) and 12-month (0.716 vs. 0.526, P<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD has a better performance only in a subset of patients with higher MELD scores. The outcome in patients with lower range MELD scores cannot be reliably predicted solely with their MELD scores, and alternative prognostic markers should be used in conjunction to enhance the predictive accuracy.

The model for end-stage liver disease-based Japan Integrated Scoring system may have a better predictive ability for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

BACKGROUND

The Japan Integrated Scoring (JIS) system was revealed as a better model for outcome prediction compared with the Cancer of Liver Italian Program system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was better as a prognostic predictor for patients with cirrhosis compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system, which is a parameter used in the JIS system. The objective of the current study was to investigate the performance of the modified MELD-based JIS system.

METHODS

In the modified JIS system, the CTP class in the original JIS was replaced with MELD cut-off scores of <10, 10 to 14, and >14. The modified JIS system was compared with the original system in 276 patients with HCC who underwent locoregional therapy (transarterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection).

RESULTS

The mean +/- standard error original JIS score was 1.8 +/- 1.0 (range, 0-4), compared with 2.0 +/- 1.1 (range, 0-5) for the modified JIS system (P < .001). Using mortality as the endpoint, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the modified JIS system was 0.804 compared with 0.741 for the original JIS system (P = .008) at 12 months, and the AUC was 0.853 and 0.765, respectively (P < .001), at 24 months. Survival analysis showed that the modified JIS system had a better discriminatory ability for patients in different score groups and was more accurate for outcome prediction in the Cox multivariate model.

CONCLUSIONS

The current results indicated that the MELD-based, modified JIS system has improved predictive ability compared with the original system and is a more feasible model for clinical staging in patients with HCC who are undergoing locoregional therapy.

Proposal of a modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system and comparison with the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has a better predictive accuracy for survival than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system and has been the primary reference for organ allocation in liver transplantation. The CTP system, with a score range of 5-15, has a ceiling effect that may compromise its predictive power. In this study, we proposed a refined CTP scoring method and investigated its predictive ability. An additional point was given to patients with serum albumin < 2.3 g/dL, bilirubin > 8 mg/dL or prothrombin time prolongation > 11 seconds. The modified CTP system, containing class D, was compared to the MELD and original CTP system in 436 patients. There was a significant correlation between the MELD and modified CTP score (rho = 0.59, P< 0.001). Using mortality as the endpoint, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve for modified CTP system was 0.895 compared with 0.872 for MELD (P = 0.450) and 0.809 for original CTP system (P < 0.001) at 3 months; the area was 0.890, 0.837 and 0.756, respectively (P = 0.051 and < 0.001, respectively) at 6 months. The risk ratio per unit increase for the modified CTP score was 2.7 and 3.08 at 3 and 6 months respectively (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the modified CTP system can be proposed as an alternative prognostic model for cirrhotic patients. By extending the score range according to the influence of the laboratory-derived variables, the modified CTP system has a better performance than the original system and is as efficient as the MELD for outcome prediction.

Role of emergency transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) is a highly effective treatment for bleeding esophageal varices, with control of the bleeding in over 90% of the patients. TIPS is recommended as "rescue" treatment if primary hemostasis cannot be obtained with endoscopic and pharmacological therapy, or if uncontrollable early rebleeding occurs within 48 hours. TIPS is also a very effective technique for patients presenting with severe refractory bleeding gastric and ectopic varices, cases where endoscopic techniques are less effective. Emergency TIPS should be considered early in patients with refractory variceal bleeding once medical treatment and sclerotherapy fail, before the clinical condition worsens. Every effort should be made to stabilize the patient before TIPS, including the use of tamponade tubes and aggressive correction of coagulopathy. Patients with acute variceal bleeding with a Child-Pugh score > 12, Apache score II > 18 points, hemodynamically unstable, receiving vasopressors and coagulopathy, and/or bilirrubin > 6 mg/dL have a high risk of early death after TIPS. Expedite liver transplantation after emergency TIPS should be considered for high-risk patients.

Systematic review: The model for end-stage liver disease--should it replace Child-Pugh's classification for assessing prognosis in cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND

Prognosis in cirrhotic patients has had a resurgence of interest because of liver transplantation and new therapies for complications of end-stage cirrhosis. The model for end-stage liver disease score is now used for allocation in liver transplantation waiting lists, replacing Child-Turcotte-Pugh score. However, there is debate as whether it is better in other settings of cirrhosis.

AIM

To review studies comparing the accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease score vs. Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in non-transplant settings.

RESULTS

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt studies (with 1360 cirrhotics) only one of five, showed model for end-stage liver disease to be superior to Child-Turcotte-Pugh to predict 3-month mortality, but not for 12-month mortality. Prognosis of cirrhosis studies (with 2569 patients) none of four showed significant differences between the two scores for either short- or long-term prognosis whereas no differences for variceal bleeding studies (with 411 cirrhotics). Modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, by adding creatinine, performed similarly to model for end-stage liver disease score. Hepatic encephalopathy and hyponatraemia (as an index of ascites), both components of Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, add to the prognostic performance of model for end-stage liver disease score.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current literature, model for end-stage liver disease score does not perform better than Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in non-transplant settings. Modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores need further evaluation.

TIPS with expanded polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stent: results of an Italian multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

Our objective is to describe the results of a multicenter prospective trial on the safety and efficacy of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) using the Viatorr stent-graft.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

From 2001 to 2003, 114 patients (75 men and 39 women; mean age, 59.3 years) with portal hypertension underwent TIPS with the Viatorr stent-graft. Indications for treatment were variceal bleeding (n = 49, 43.0%), refractory ascites (n = 52, 45.6%), hypertensive gastropathy (n = 10, 8.8%), Budd-Chiari syndrome (n = 1, 0.9%), and hepatorenal syndrome (n = 2, 1.7%). Eight patients (7.0%) had Child-Pugh class A cirrhosis; 60 (52.6%), Child-Pugh class B; and 46 (40.4%), Child-Pugh class C. Patients were monitored by color Doppler sonography and phlebography.

RESULTS

The procedure was successful in 113 (99.1%) of 114 patients; in one patient, creation of the track was not feasible. The mean portosystemic pressure gradient decreased from 21.8 to 8.7 mm Hg. Three minor immediate complications (2.6%) occurred (two cases of self-limiting hemoperitoneum and one extrahepatic portal puncture requiring covered stenting). At a mean follow-up of 11.9 months, the overall mortality rate was 31.0% (35/113), with a 30-day mortality rate of 8.8% (10/113). Mortality was significantly higher in patients in Child-Pugh class C with refractory ascites and with post-procedural encephalopathy. Cumulative primary patency rates were 91.9%, 79.9%, and 75.9% at 6, 12, and 24 months' follow-up, respectively. Restenosis occurred in 15 patients (13.3%) within the stent (n = 8, 53.3%) or at the ends of the portal (n = 1, 6.7%) or hepatic (n = 6, 40%) veins and was solved by percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (n = 11), stenting (n = 3), or parallel TIPS (n = 1). The secondary patency rate was 98.2%. Post-procedural encephalopathy occurred in 27 patients (23.9%).

CONCLUSION

The Viatorr stent-graft is safe and effective in TIPS creation, with high primary patency rates. Covering the entire track up to the inferior vena cava can increase patency.

MELD score as a predictor of early death in patients undergoing elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedures

PURPOSE

To Evaluate the MELD score as a predictor of 30-day mortality in patients undergoing elective TIPS procedures.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, IRB-approved study. The medical records of all patients who underwent a TIPS procedure between May 1, 1999 and June 1, 2003 in a single institution were reviewed. Patients who underwent elective TIPS were selected. Elective TIPS was performed in 119 patients with a mean age of 55.1 (+/- 9.6) years. The MELD and Child-Pugh scores before TIPS, etiology of cirrhosis, portosystemic gradients before and after TIPS, procedure time, and procedural complications were obtained from the medical records. The MELD and Child-Pugh scores before TIPS were compared between the survivor group (SG) and the early death (EDG) group. The early death rate was calculated for MELD score subgroups (1-10, 11-17, 18-24, and >24). Data were analyzed using the Fisher exact test, chi-square test and independent-sample t-test. A p value of less than 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

Technical success rate was 100%. The early death rate was 10.9% (13/119). The mean MELD scores before TIPS were 19.4 (+/- 5.9) (EDG) and 14 (+/- 4.2) (SG) (p = 0.025). The early death rate was highest in the pre-TIPS MELD > 24 subgroup. The Child-Pugh scores were 9.0 (+/- 1.6) (SG) and 9.8 +/- 1.06 (EDG) (p = 0.08). The mean portosystemic gradients before TIPS were 20.5 (+/- 7.7) mmHg (EDG) and 22.7 (+/- 7.3) (SG) (p > 1) and the mean portosystemic gradients after TIPS were 6.5 (+/- 3.5) (EDG) and 6.9 (+/- 2.4) (SG) (p > 1). The mean procedural times were 95.6 (+/- 8.4) min (EDG) and 89.2 (+/- 7.5) min (SG) (p > 1). No early death was attributed to a fatal complication during TIPS.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score is useful in identifying patients at a higher risk of early death after an elective TIPS. On th basis of our results, we do not endorse elective TIPS in patients with MELD scores > 24.

Regional variation and use of exception letters for cadaveric liver allocation in children with chronic liver disease

The Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) score was designed to reduce subjectivity in liver allocation and to advantage patients with a higher probability of waiting list mortality. The aims of this study were to determine the impact of PELD implementation for children with chronic liver disease and to assess whether PELD met its goal of standardization of liver allocation for children. This study used data reported to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry for children with chronic liver disease receiving primary cadaveric liver transplant between January 2000 and December 2001 (pre-PELD) and March 2002 and July 2003 (PELD). PELD reduced the percentage of children transplanted while in an intensive care unit and as status 1. A calculated PELD score was used for allocation in only 52% of recipients. Thirty percent were status 1 at transplant and PELD scores granted by exception were used for allocation in 18% of patients. There was regional variation in PELD score at allocation and use of exception scores with a significant relationship between PELD score and percentage of exception cases. Regional variation suggests that PELD has not resulted in standardization of listing practices in pediatric liver transplantation.

Evaluation of the increase in model for end-stage liver disease (DeltaMELD) score over time as a prognostic predictor in patients with advanced cirrhosis: risk factor analysis and comparison with initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. The change in MELD score over time (DeltaMELD) may have additional prognostic value. We investigated the ability of DeltaMELD to predict the outcome of advanced cirrhosis and prospectively assessed the factors associated with increasing DeltaMELD.

METHODS

Risk factors were determined in 58 prospectively followed-up patients. The predictive power of DeltaMELD, initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score was compared by using c-statistic in 351 patients.

RESULTS

Ascites (P=0.020) and hepatic encephalopathy (P=0.023) were significantly associated with increasing MELD score at 3 months. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for DeltaMELD/month was 0.779 compared with 0.718 for MELD (P=0.130) and 0.528 for CTP score (P<0.001) at 6 months; the area was 0.822, 0.744 and 0.528, respectively (P=0.018 and <0.001, respectively) at 12 months. DeltaMELD/month >2.5 was the only significant prognostic predictor at 6 (odds ratio: 9.8, P<0.001) and 12 months (odds ratio: 16.3, P<0.001) in multivariate logistic analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing MELD score is associated with the onset of ascites and encephalopathy. DeltaMELD is superior to initial MELD and CTP scores to predict intermediate term outcome in patients with advanced cirrhosis.

MELD vs Child-Pugh and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh score for predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

AIM: Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has recently gained wide acceptance over the old Child-Pugh score in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, although it is more sophisticated. We compared the predictive values of MELD, Child-Pugh and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores in decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS: A cohort of 102 patients with decompensated cirrhosis followed-up for a median of 6 mo was studied. Two types of modified Child-Pugh scores estimated by adding 0-4 points to the original score using creatinine levels as a sixth categorical variable were evaluated.

RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating charac-teristic curves did not differ significantly among the four scores, but none had excellent diagnostic accuracy (areas: 0.71-0.79). Child-Pugh score appeared to be the worst, while the accuracy of MELD was almost identical with that of modified Child-Pugh in predicting short-term and slightly better in predicting medium-term survival. In Cox regression analysis, all four scores were significantly associated with survival, while MELD and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores had better predictive values (c-statistics: 0.73 and 0.69-0.70) than Child-Pugh score (c-statistics: 0.65). Adjustment for gamma-glutamate transpeptidase levels increased the predictive values of all systems (c-statistics: 0.77-0.81). Analysis of the expected and observed survival curves in patients subgroups according to their prognosis showed that all models fit the data reasonably well with MELD probably discriminating better the subgroups with worse prognosis.

CONCLUSION: MELD compared to the old Child-Pugh and particularly to creatinine-modified Child-Pugh scores does not appear to offer a clear advantage in predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis in daily clinical practice.

Portal hypertension

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Report on significant advances in the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and management of the complications of portal hypertension that have occurred in the last year.

RECENT FINDINGS

The specific areas reviewed refer to experimental studies aimed at modifying the factors that lead to portal hypertension (increased intrahepatic vascular resistance and splanchnic vasodilatation) and recent advances in the diagnosis and management of the complications of portal hypertension. The specific complications reviewed in this paper are varices and variceal bleeding (primary prophylaxis, treatment of the acute episode, and secondary prophylaxis), ascites and some of its complications (hyponatremia, hepatic hydrothorax), hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and hepatic encephalopathy.

SUMMARY

Important studies, mostly prospective, regarding the management of the complications of portal hypertension are reviewed, including trials that demonstrate the value of the hepatic venous pressure gradient in predicting these complications, a trial of beta-blockers in patients with small varices, a randomized trial of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt using covered stents and another pilot study using this shunt in the treatment of hepatorenal syndrome, a trial of antibiotic prophylaxis in preventing early variceal rebleeding, and a trial of synbiotic therapy in hepatic encephalopathy. These trials will contribute to advancing the practice of hepatology and defining future research areas.

Selection Criteria for Patients Undergoing Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Procedures: Current Status

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure has a well-established role in the management of patients with complications of portal hypertension such as variceal bleeding or refractory ascites. Several clinical variables have been described to be associated with a poor prognosis after a TIPS procedure, including the presence of uncontrollable ascites, the number of sclerotherapy sessions to control a bleeding episode, the use of drugs for hemodynamic support, the use of balloon tamponade to control bleeding, the need for an emergency TIPS procedure, the need for mechanical ventilation, prothrombin time, increased serum creatinine, increased serum bilirubin, encephalopathy, and sepsis. In addition, several scoring systems have been developed and applied to patients undergoing TIPS procedures in an attempt to improve patient selection criteria for this invasive procedure. This article reviews the most important scoring systems that have been developed and applied to patients undergoing emergency or elective TIPS procedures, with particular emphasis on the prognostic index designed for patients undergoing emergency TIPS procedures and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score designed for patients undergoing elective TIPS procedures. The most practical application of these scoring systems is probably that, with the information provided, the operator is able to discuss with referring physicians, patients, and family members the expected outcomes of this challenging procedure.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in refractory ascites: a meta-analysis

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a more effective treatment for refractory ascites than large volume paracentesis (LVP), but the magnitude of its effect in terms of control of ascites, encephalopathy and survival has not been established.

AIM

This meta-analysis compare TIPS to LVP in terms of control of ascites at 4 and 12 months, encephalopathy and survival at 1 and 2 years.

RESULTS

Five randomized controlled trials involving 330 patients were included. In the TIPS group, control of ascites was more frequently achieved at 4 months (66% vs 23.8%, mean difference: 41.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 29.5-53.2%, P < 0.001) and 12 months (54.8% vs 18.9%, mean difference: 35%, 95% CI: 24.9-45.1%, P < 0.001), whereas encephalopathy was higher (54.9% vs 38.1%, mean difference: 17%, 95% CI: 7.3-26.6%, P < 0.001). Survival at 1 year (61.7% vs 56.5%, mean difference: 3.2%, 95% CI: -14.7 to 21.9%) and 2 years (50% vs 42.8%, mean difference: 6.8%, 95% CI: -10 to 23.6%) were not significantly different.

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS is a more effective treatment for refractory ascites than LVP. However, TIPS increase encephalopathy and does not improve survival.

Comparison of MELD and Child-Pugh scores to predict survival after chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

To compare the value of the Child-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to predict patient survival rates after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eighty-seven patients underwent 169 TACE sessions. Child-Pugh and MELD values were calculated before initial treatment. Survival length was tracked from the date of the first TACE procedure. Transplant recipients were censored from the study at the time of surgery. Child-Pugh and MELD scores as well as bilirubin and albumin levels and International Normalized Ratio were placed in high and low categories defined by their respective medians. Patient survival was compared at 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months, and patterns were tested with chi2 or Fisher exact tests. Survival over the entire period was examined with Kaplan-Meier analysis and differences were tested with log-rank tests.

RESULTS

Mean and median survival times for all patients were 24 and 17 months, respectively. Sixteen patients were censored for transplantation at a mean of 12.9 months. MELD and Child-Pugh scores correlated well with each other (r = 0.68). Child-Pugh score (r = -0.35, P = .04) correlated more strongly with 12-month survival than did MELD score (r = -0.26, P = .12). After high/low score category division, a significantly greater survival difference was predicted by Child-Pugh score (27.2 months vs 10.3 months; P = .03) versus MELD score (27.5 months vs 15.8 months; P = .19). An albumin level greater than 3.4 g/dL was also associated with significantly improved survival (29.3 months vs 10.1 months; P = .0032). Survival differences between high-risk and low-risk groups at the 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month intervals were significant for low Child-Pugh scores and for albumin levels greater than 3.4 g/dL. Statistical significance was not approached at any of the time lengths with MELD scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Child-Pugh score correlates better than MELD score to overall patient survival and is a better predictor than MELD score of survival at specific time points. Of the components of the Child-Pugh and MELD systems, albumin level is the most useful predictor of survival.

H-graft portacaval shunts versus TIPS: ten-year follow-up of a randomized trial with comparison to predicted survivals

OBJECTIVE

To report long-term outcome of patients undergoing prosthetic 8-mm H-graft portacaval shunts (HGPCS) or TIPS and to compare actual with predicted survival data.

METHODS

A randomized trial comparing TIPS to HGPCS for bleeding varices began in 1993. Predicted survival was determined using MELD (Model for End-stage Liver Disease).

RESULTS

Patients undergoing TIPS (N = 66) or HGPCS (N = 66) were very similar by Child's class and MELD scores and predicted survival. After TIPS (P = 0.01) and HGPCS (P = 0.001), actual survival was superior to predicted survival. Through 24 months, actual survival after HGPCS was superior to actual survival after TIPS (P = 0.04). Compared with TIPS, survival was superior after HGPCS for patients of Child's class A and B (P = 0.07) and with MELD scores less than 13 (P = 0.04) with follow-up at 5 to 10 years. Shunt failure was less following HGPCS (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Predicted survival data for patients undergoing TIPS or HGPCS confirms an unbiased randomization. Actual survival following TIPS or HGPCS was superior to predicted survival. Shunt failure favored HGPCS, as did survival after shunting, particularly for the first few years after shunting and for patients of Child's class A or B or with MELD scores less than 13. This trial irrefutably establishes a role for surgical shunting, particularly HGPCS.

Value of portal hemodynamics and hypersplenism in cirrhosis staging

AIM: To determine the correlation between portal hemodynamics and spleen function among different grades of cirrhosis and verify its significance in cirrhosis staging.

METHODS: The portal and splenic vein hemodynamics and spleen size were investigated by ultrasonography in consecutive 38 cirrhotic patients with cirrhosis (Child’s grades A to C) and 20 normal controls. The differences were compared in portal vein diameter and flow velocity between patients with and without ascites and between patients with mild and severe esophageal varices. The correlation between peripheral blood cell counts and Child’s grades was also determined.

RESULTS: The portal flow velocity and volume were significantly lower in patients with Child’s C (12.25±1.67 cm/s vs 788.59±234 mm/min, respectively) cirrhosis compared to controls (19.55±3.28 cm/s vs 1254.03±410 mm/min, respectively) and those with Child’s A (18.5±3.02 cm/s vs 1358.48±384 mm/min, respectively) and Child’s B (16.0±3.89 cm/s vs 1142.23±390 mm/min, respectively) cirrhosis. Patients with ascites had much lower portal flow velocity and volume (13.0±1.72 cm/s vs 1078±533 mm/min) than those without ascites (18.6±2.60 cm/s vs 1394±354 mm/min). There was no statistical difference between patients with mild and severe esophageal varices. The portal vein diameter was not significantly different among the above groups. There were significant differences in splenic vein diameter, flow velocity and white blood cell count, but not in spleen size, red blood cell and platelet counts among the various grades of cirrhosis. The spleen size was negatively correlated with red blood cell and platelet counts (r = -0.620 and r = -0.8.34, respectively).

CONCLUSION: An optimal system that includes parameters representing the portal hemodynamics and spleen function should be proposed for cirrhosis staging.

N/A

N/A

MELD score versus conventional UNOS status in predicting short-term mortality after liver transplantation*

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) provides a score able to predict short-term mortality in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). In the early 2002, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has proposed to replace the conventional statuses 3, 2B, and 2A with a modified MELD score. However, the accuracy of the MELD model to predict post-transplantation outcome is fairly elusive. In the present study we investigated the predictive value of the MELD score for short-term patient and graft mortality in comparison with conventional UNOS status. Sixty-nine patients listed at UNOS status 3 (n = 5), 2B (n = 55) or 2A (n = 9) who underwent LT were enrolled according to strict criteria. No donor-related parameters affected 3-month patient survival. Through univariate Cox regression, pretransplantation international normalized ratio (P = 0.049) and activated partial thromboplastin time (P = 0.032) were significantly associated with 3-month patient survival, although not in the subsequent multivariate analysis. The overall MELD score was 17 +/- 6.63 (median: 16, range: 4-34), increasing from UNOS Status 3 to 2A (r(2) = 0.171, P = 0.0001). No significant difference occurred in the median MELD score between patients who underwent a second LT and those who did not (P =0.458). The inter-rate agreement between UNOS status and MELD score after categorization for clinical urgency showed a fair agreement (kappa = 0.244). The 3-month patient and graft mortality was 15.94% and 20.29% respectively. The concordance statistic did not find significance between UNOS status and MELD score for 3-month patient (P = 0.283) or graft mortality (P = 0.957), although the MELD score revealed a major sensitivity for short-term patient mortality (0.637; 95%CI: 0.513-0.75). These findings suggest the need to implement MELD model accuracy for both inter-rate agreement with UNOS Status and patient outcome.

Child-Turcotte-Pugh versus MELD score as a predictor of outcome after elective and emergent surgery in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients who present for elective and emergent surgery pose a formidable challenge for the surgeon because of the high reported morbidity and mortality. The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score previously has been used to evaluate preoperative severity of liver dysfunction and to predict postoperative outcome. Recently, a more objective scoring classification, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), has been shown to predict accurately the 3-month mortality for cirrhotic patients awaiting transplantation. We sought to compare the CTP and MELD scores in predicting outcomes in cirrhotic patients undergoing surgical procedures requiring general anesthesia.

METHODS

During the study period, 40 patients with a history of cirrhosis who required elective (E) or emergent (EM) surgical procedures under general anesthesia were reviewed (E = 24, EM = 16). The preoperative CTP and MELD scores were calculated and patient short- (30-day) and long-term (3-month) outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

There was a significant difference in the 1-month and 3-month mortality rates between the emergent and elective groups (EM group: 1 mo = 19%, 3 mo = 44%; E group: 1 mo = 17%, 3 mo = 21%, P <0.05). There was good correlation between the CP and MELD scores, which was greater in the emergent groups as compared with the elective group (EM: r = 0.81; E: r = 0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that cirrhotic patients who undergo surgery under general anesthesia have an extremely high 1- and 3-month mortality rate that progressively increases with severity of preoperative liver dysfunction. Additionally, the MELD score correlates well with the CTP score, providing a more objective predictor of postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing surgery.

Determination of the optimal model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been a prevailing system to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. An "exceptional" MELD score of 20 and 24 points is assigned for stage T1 and T2 patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), respectively. However, this strategy is based on scarce data and the optimal score for these patients remains uncertain. We investigated 238 patients with small HCC who were candidates for liver transplantation and underwent arterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection therapy using acetic acid or ethanol. Tumor stage (P = .001) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class (P < .001) were independent risk factors predicting tumor progression or death in survival analysis. The risk of disease progression in HCC patients stratified by tumor stage was mapped and equated with the risk of mortality of 456 cirrhotic patients without HCC. The 6- and 12-month rates of disease progression were 4% and 6%, respectively, for stage T1 HCC patients (n = 50; mean MELD: 9.5). These rates were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 8-12 at the corresponding time period (7.1% and 11.3%, respectively; n = 141). For stage T2 patients (n = 188; mean MELD: 9.3), the corresponding rates were 5.3% and 13.8%, respectively, which were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 10-14 (9.0% and 13.9%, respectively, n = 166). In conclusion, the risk of disease progression is quite low for selected HCC patients undergoing loco-regional therapy. A lower MELD score may be suggested to be equivalent to the risk of short- and mid-term mortality in the cirrhosis group.

Can inclusion of serum creatinine values improve the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and challenge the prognostic yield of the model for end-stage liver disease score in the short-term prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients?

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a useful tool to assess prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients. However, its short-term prognostic superiority over the traditional Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score has not been definitely confirmed. The creatinine serum level is an important predictor of survival in patients with liver cirrhosis.

AIMS

To evaluate and compare the short-term prognostic accuracy of the CTP, the creatinine-modified CTP, and the MELD scores in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

CTP, creatinine-modified CTP, and MELD scores were calculated in a cohort of 145 cirrhotic patients. The creatinine-modified CTP was calculated as follows: we assessed the mean creatinine serum level and standard deviation (SD) of the 145 study patients, then assigned a score of 1 to patients with creatinine serum levels < or = to the mean, a score of 2 to patients with creatinine levels between the mean and the mean+1 SD, and a score of 3 to patients with creatinine levels above the mean+1 SD. The creatinine-modified CTP was then calculated by simply adding each patients' creatinine score to their traditional CTP scores. We calculated and compared the accuracy (c-index) of the three parameters in predicting 3-month survival.

RESULTS

The creatinine-modified CTP score showed better prognostic accuracy as compared with the traditional CTP (P=0.049). However, the MELD score proved to be better at defining patients' prognosis in the short-term as compared with both the traditional CTP score (P=0.012) and the creatinine-modified CTP (P=0.047). The excellent short-term prognostic accuracy of the MELD score was confirmed even when patients with abnormal creatinine serum levels were excluded from the analysis (c-index=0.935).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding creatinine values to the CTP slightly improves the prognostic usefulness of the traditional CTP score alone. The MELD score has a short-term prognostic yield that is better than what is provided by both the CTP and CTP creatinine-modified scores, even in cirrhotic patients who are not critically ill. The positive results obtained by using the MELD score were confirmed even after excluding patients with impaired renal function.