Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions

Body size variation of mammals in a fragmented, temperate rainforest

Body size is perhaps the most important trait of an organism, affecting all of its physiological and ecological processes and, therefore, fundamentally influencing its ability to survive and reproduce in different environments, including those that have been modified by human activities. We tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic transformation of old-growth forest landscapes can result in significant intraspecific changes in body size of resident biotas. We collected data on five species of nonvolant mammals (common deer mouse[Peromyscus maniculatus], northwestern deer mouse[P. keeni], southern red-backed vole[Clethrionomys gapperi], montane shrew[Sorex monticolus], and Trowbridge's shrew[S. trowbridgii]) to test whether body size (mass and length) of these species varied across types of land cover (macrohabitats) and along elevational gradients of the fragmented, temperate rainforest of Olympic National Forest (Washington, U.S.A.). We measured 2168 and 1134 individuals for body mass and body length, respectively. Three species (P. keeni, S. monticolus, and S. trowbridgii) exhibited significantly different body size among macrohabitats: individuals from fragments were smaller than those in old-growth corridors and those in more extensive stands of old-growth forest. Body size of P. keeni was significantly correlated with elevation along corridors, peaking near the medial reaches of the corridors. The effects of anthropogenic transformations of this landscape of old-growth, temperate rainforest, although not universal among the five species, were significant and rapid-developing in just a few decades following tree harvests. Thus, anthropogenic fragmentation may influence not only the diversity, species composition, and densities of local biotas, but also one of the most fundamental and defining characteristics of native species-their body size.

Biased data reduce efficiency and effectiveness of conservation reserve networks

Complementarity-based reserve selection algorithms efficiently prioritize sites for biodiversity conservation, but they are data-intensive and most regions lack accurate distribution maps for the majority of species. We explored implications of basing conservation planning decisions on incomplete and biased data using occurrence records of the plant family Proteaceae in South Africa. Treating this high-quality database as 'complete', we introduced three realistic sampling biases characteristic of biodiversity databases: a detectability sampling bias and two forms of roads sampling bias. We then compared reserve networks constructed using complete, biased, and randomly sampled data. All forms of biased sampling performed worse than both the complete data set and equal-effort random sampling. Biased sampling failed to detect a median of 1-5% of species, and resulted in reserve networks that were 9-17% larger than those designed with complete data. Spatial congruence and the correlation of irreplaceability scores between reserve networks selected with biased and complete data were low. Thus, reserve networks based on biased data require more area to protect fewer species and identify different locations than those selected with randomly sampled or complete data.

Protected areas: a prism for a changing world

The centrality of protected areas in biodiversity conservation has not changed over the past three decades, but we now know that biodiversity conservation represents a much more complex and dynamic picture than was once thought. In contrast to the earlier primarily aesthetic motivation (and still valid in its own right), the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation is now widely accepted. Internationally, their importance has been recognized by the Convention on Biological Diversity and by the creation of intergovernmental funding agencies such as the Global Environmental Facility. As I discuss here, the rate of creation of new protected areas has increased rapidly to meet the need for a protected representative set of the ecosystems of the world. But that is only the start of the task.

Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation

Global conservation prioritization usually emphasizes areas with highest species richness or where many species are thought to be at imminent risk of extinction. However, these strategies may overlook areas where many species have biological traits that make them particularly sensitive to future human impact but are not yet threatened because such impact is currently low. In this article, we identify such areas for the world's mammals using latent extinction risk, the discrepancy between a species' current extinction risk and that predicted from models on the basis of biological traits. Species with positive latent risk are currently less threatened than their biology would suggest, usually because they inhabit regions or habitats still comparatively unmodified by human activity. Using large new geographic, biological, and phylogenetic databases for nearly 4,000 mammal species, we map the global geographic distribution of latent risk to reveal areas where the mammal fauna is still relatively unthreatened but has high inherent sensitivity to disturbance. These hotspots include large areas such as the Nearctic boreal forests and tundra that are unrepresented in most current prioritization schemes, as well as high-biodiversity areas such as the island arc from Indonesia to the south Pacific. Incorporating latent extinction risk patterns into conservation planning could help guard against future biodiversity loss by anticipating and preventing species declines before they begin.