Ecological and immunological determinants of dengue epidemics

Of mice and men: asymmetric interactions between Bordetella pathogen species

In a recent experiment, we found that mice previously infected with Bordetella pertussis were not protected against a later infection with Bordetella parapertussis, while primary infection with B. parapertussis conferred cross-protection. This challenges the common assumption made in most mathematical models for pathogenic strain dynamics that cross-immunity between strains is symmetric. Here we investigate the potential consequences of this pattern on the circulation of the two pathogens in human populations. To match the empirical dominance of B. pertussis, we made the additional assumption that B. parapertussis pays a cost in terms of reduced fitness. We begin by exploring the range of parameter values that allow the coexistence of the two pathogens, with or without vaccination. We then track the dynamics of the system following the introduction of anti-pertussis vaccination. Our results suggest that (1) in order for B. pertussis to be more prevalent than B. parapertussis, the former must have a strong competitive advantage, possibly in the form of higher infectivity, and (2) because of asymmetric cross-immunity, the introduction of anti-pertussis vaccination should have little effect on the absolute prevalence of B. parapertussis. We discuss the evidence supporting these predictions, and the potential relevance of this model for other pathogens.

Viral evolution in the genomic age

The remarkable increase in the number of viral genome sequences represents both opportunities and challenges for understanding disease ecology and evolution, and must stimulate researchers to address questions that were previously considered out of reach.

Dengue virus-mosquito interactions

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is more widely dispersed now than at any time in the past, placing billions of humans at risk of infection with one or more of the four dengue viruses. This review presents and discusses information on mosquito-dengue infection dynamics and describes the prominent role that temperature and rainfall play in controlling dengue viral transmission including discussions of the effect of interannual climate variations and the predicted effect of global warming. Complementary human determinants of dengue epidemiology include viremia titer, variation in viremic period, enhanced viremias, and threshold viremia. Topics covered include epidemiological phenomena such as traveling waves, the generation of genetic diversity of dengue viruses following virgin soil introductions and in hyperendemic settings, and evidence for and against viral virulence as a determinant of the severity of dengue infections. Also described is the crucial role of monotypic and heterotypic herd immunity in shaping dengue epidemic behavior.

Dengue

The four dengue viruses are transmitted in tropical countries that circle the globe. All can cause syndromes that are self-limited or severe. The common severe syndrome--dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS)--is characterised by sudden vascular permeability generated by cytokines released when T cells attack dengue-infected cells. Dengue 1 virus became prevalent in Hawaii where it was transmitted by Aedes albopictus, producing a classic virgin soil epidemic, with clinical disease seen largely in adults. In Cuba and Singapore, sequential dengue infections at long intervals produced unusually severe disease in adults. Evidence suggests that enhancing and cross-reactive neutralising antibodies regulate dengue epidemics and disease severity. Classic DHF/DSS arises during initial dengue infections in infants with low circulating amounts of maternal dengue antibodies, an observation that precludes an exclusive causal role for secondary T-cell responses. Here, I review and discuss data on clinical diagnosis and pathophysiology of vascular permeability and coagulopathy, parenteral treatment of DHF/DSS, and new laboratory tests.

Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. A retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima located on the Mexican central Pacific coast is carried out. We estimate the reproduction number from spatial epidemic data at the level of municipalities using two different methods: (1) Using a standard dengue epidemic model and assuming pure exponential initial epidemic growth and (2) Fitting a more realistic epidemic model to the initial phase of the dengue epidemic curve. Using Method I, we estimate an overall mean reproduction number of 3.09 (95% CI: 2.34,3.84) as well as local reproduction numbers whose values range from 1.24 (1.15,1.33) to 4.22 (2.90,5.54). Using Method II, the overall mean reproduction number is estimated to be 2.0 (1.75,2.23) and local reproduction numbers ranging from 0.49 (0.0,1.0) to 3.30 (1.63,4.97). Method I systematically overestimates the reproduction number relative to the refined Method II, and hence it would overestimate the intensity of interventions required for containment. Moreover, optimal intervention with defined resources demands different levels of locally tailored mitigation. Local epidemic peaks occur between the 24th and 35th week of the year, and correlate positively with the final local epidemic sizes (rho=0.92, P-value<0.001). Moreover, final local epidemic sizes are found to be linearly related to the local population size (P-value<0.001). This observation supports a roughly constant number of female mosquitoes per person across urban and rural regions.

The perpetuation and epidemic recurrence of communicable diseases in human populations

Recurrence of communicable diseases is a looming threat for human populations. Factors explaining the recurrences are partially known, involving demographics, biology, and complex relationships with the environment, but no comprehensive theory exists today. Here, we review some recent results obtained in modelling studies with a view to understanding better the mechanisms of perpetuation. Factors intrinsic to the interaction of pathogen and host have regained interest in this respect, especially with multiple pathogen and multiple population interactions. Extrinsic factors, including pure demography and environmental forcing are also strong predictors. With increasingly detailed data available, large-scale integrated models will help sorting out the multiple influences on recurrence. To cite this article: P.-Y. Boëlle, C. R. Biologies 330 (2007).

Dengue virus evolution and virulence models

Dengue virus transmission has increased dramatically in the past 2 decades, making this virus one of the most important mosquito-borne human pathogens. The emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in most tropical countries has made its control a public health priority, but no vaccines or treatments exist. Little is understood about dengue virus pathogenesis, because no other animals develop symptoms of disease, and research, therefore, has been limited to studies involving patients. Although epidemiologic and evolutionary studies have pointed to host and viral factors in determining disease outcome, only recently developed models could prove the importance of viral genotypes in causing severe epidemics. The influence of host immune status and mosquito vectorial capacity are also being tested in mathematical models to determine virus population dynamics. Therefore, new technologies are allowing us to better understand how specific virus variants cause more disease than others, and these virus variants should be targeted for detection, control, and treatment.

Tracking the dynamics of pathogen interactions: Modeling ecological and immune-mediated processes in a two-pathogen single-host system

Traditionally, epidemiological studies have focused on understanding the dynamics of a single pathogen, assuming no interactions with other pathogens. Recently, a large body of work has begun to explore the effects of immune-mediated interactions, arising from cross-immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement, between related pathogen strains. In addition, ecological processes such as a temporary period of convalescence and pathogen-induced mortality have led to the concept of ecological interference between unrelated diseases. There remains, however, the need for a systematic study of both immunological and ecological processes within a single framework. In this paper, we develop a general two-pathogen single-host model of pathogen interactions that simultaneously incorporates these mechanisms. We are then able to mechanistically explore how immunoecological processes mediate interactions between diseases for a pool of susceptible individuals. We show that the precise nature of the interaction can induce either competitive or cooperative associations between pathogens. Understanding the dynamic implications of multi-pathogen associations has potentially important public health consequences. Such a framework may be especially helpful in disentangling the effects of partially cross-immunizing infections that affect populations with a pre-disposition towards immunosuppression such as children and the elderly.