Theoretical Basis of the Test-Negative Study Design for Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

Waning protection following 5 doses of a 3-component diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis vaccine

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccines wanes substantially after the 5^th dose given at ages 4-6years, but has not been described following 5 doses of the same type of DTaP vaccine. We investigated waning effectiveness against pertussis in California over nearly 10years, which included large pertussis outbreaks, following 5 doses of GSK DTaP vaccines (DTaP₃).

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study (NCT02447978) of children who received 5 doses of DTaP at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 01/2006 through 03/2015. We compared time since the 5^th dose in confirmed pertussis polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases with pertussis PCR-negative controls. We used logistic regression adjusted for calendar time, age, sex, race, and service area to estimate the effect of time since the 5^th DTaP dose on the odds of pertussis. Our primary analysis evaluated waning after 5 doses of DTaP₃. We also examined waning after 5 doses of any type of DTaP vaccines.

RESULTS

Our primary analysis compared 340 pertussis cases diagnosed at ages 4-12years with 3841 controls. The any DTaP analysis compared 462 pertussis cases with 5649 controls. The majority of all DTaP doses in the study population were DTaP₃ (86.8%). Children who were more remote from their 5^th dose were less protected than were children whose 5^th dose was more recent; the adjusted odds of pertussis increased by 1.27 per year (95% CI 1.10, 1.46) after 5 doses of DTaP₃ and by 1.30 per year (95% CI 1.15, 1.46) after any 5 DTaP vaccines doses.

CONCLUSIONS

Waning protection after DTaP₃ was similar to that following 5 doses of any type of DTaP vaccines. This finding is not unexpected as most of the DTaP vaccines administered were DTaP_3. Following 5 doses of DTaP₃ vaccines, protection from pertussis waned 27% per year on average. NCT number: NCT02447978.

Concordance of interim and final estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review

The World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System meets twice a year to generate a recommendation for the composition of the seasonal influenza vaccine. Interim vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates provide a preliminary indication of influenza vaccine performance during the season and may be useful for decision making. We reviewed 17 pairs of studies reporting 33 pairs of interim and final estimates using the test-negative design to evaluate whether interim estimates can reliably predict final estimates. We examined features of the study design that may be correlated with interim estimates being substantially different from their final estimates and identified differences related to change in study period and concomitant changes in sample size, proportion vaccinated and proportion of cases. An absolute difference of no more than 10% between interim and final estimates was found for 18 of 33 reported pairs of estimates, including six of 12 pairs reporting VE against any influenza, six of 10 for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, four of seven for influenza A(H3N2) and two of four for influenza B. While we identified inconsistencies in the methods, the similarities between interim and final estimates support the utility of generating and disseminating preliminary estimates of VE while virus circulation is ongoing.

Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in low-income settings: An evaluation of the test-negative design

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design (TND), an epidemiologic method currently used to measure rotavirus vaccine (RV) effectiveness, compares the vaccination status of rotavirus-positive cases and rotavirus-negative controls meeting a pre-defined case definition for acute gastroenteritis. Despite the use of this study design in low-income settings, the TND has not been evaluated to measure rotavirus vaccine effectiveness.

METHODS

This study builds upon prior methods to evaluate the use of the TND for influenza vaccine using a randomized controlled clinical trial database. Test-negative vaccine effectiveness (VE-TND) estimates were derived from three large randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) of monovalent (RV1) and pentavalent (RV5) rotavirus vaccines in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Derived VE-TND estimates were compared to the original RCT vaccine efficacy estimates (VE-RCTs). The core assumption of the TND (i.e., rotavirus vaccine has no effect on rotavirus-negative diarrhea) was also assessed.

RESULTS

TND vaccine effectiveness estimates were nearly equivalent to original RCT vaccine efficacy estimates. Neither RV had a substantial effect on rotavirus-negative diarrhea.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the TND as an appropriate epidemiologic study design to measure rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in low-income settings.

Invited Commentary: Beware the Test-Negative Design

In this issue of the Journal, Sullivan et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;184(5):345-353) carefully examine the theoretical justification for use of the test-negative design, a common observational study design, in assessing the effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Using modern causal inference methods (in particular, directed acyclic graphs), they describe different threats to the validity of inferences drawn about the effect of vaccination from test-negative design studies. These threats include confounding, selection bias, and measurement error in either the exposure or the outcome. While confounding and measurement error are common in observational studies, the potential for selection bias inherent in the test-negative design brings into question the validity of inferences drawn from such studies.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in Australia, 2015: An epidemiological, antigenic and phylogenetic assessment

BACKGROUND

A record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were notified in Australia in 2015, during which type A(H3) and type B Victoria and Yamagata lineages co-circulated. We estimated effectiveness of the 2015 inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine against specific virus lineages and clades.

METHODS

Three sentinel general practitioner networks conduct surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza amongst patients presenting with influenza-like illness in Australia. Data from the networks were pooled to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) for seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine in Australia in 2015 using the case test-negative study design.

RESULTS

There were 2443 eligible patients included in the study, of which 857 (35%) were influenza-positive. Thirty-three and 19% of controls and cases respectively were reported as vaccinated. Adjusted VE against all influenza was 54% (95% CI: 42, 63). Antigenic characterisation data suggested good match between vaccine and circulating strains of A(H3); however VE for A(H3) was low at 44% (95% CI: 21, 60). Phylogenetic analysis indicated most circulating viruses were from clade 3C.2a, rather than the clade included in the vaccine (3C.3a). VE point estimates were higher against B/Yamagata lineage influenza (71%; 95% CI: 57, 80) than B/Victoria (42%, 95% CI: 13, 61), and in younger people.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall seasonal vaccine was protective against influenza infection in Australia in 2015. Higher VE against the B/Yamagata lineage included in the trivalent vaccine suggests that more widespread use of quadrivalent vaccine could have improved overall effectiveness of influenza vaccine. Genetic characterisation suggested lower VE against A(H3) influenza was due to clade mismatch of vaccine and circulating viruses.