Predicting the risk of Lyme disease: habitat suitability for Ixodes scapularis in the north central United States

Distribution of the common tick, Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae), in different vegetation types in southern Sweden

The aim of this study was to investigate whether differences in Ixodes ricinus (L.) nymphal relative density exist among different vegetation types in southern Sweden. Nymphal I. ricinus were sampled in southeastern Scania in southern Sweden during June-August 1997. A total of 110-180 25-m2 samples were taken by blanket-dragging from each of nine different vegetation types. There was a highly significant difference in nymphal abundance between the open areas as one group and the forested areas as another group (P < 0.0001). Vegetation types that differed significantly in median nymphal abundance from all other vegetation types were pine forest (16 nymphs/100 m2) and beech forest (40 nymphs/100 m2). No significant differences in median nymphal density were revealed among mixed deciduous forest, alder forest, oak forest, and hazel forest (28-32 nymphs/100 m2), or among dry meadow, meadow, and heath (0 nymphs/100 m2). Forestation of open areas is likely to lead to increased I. ricinus abundance and disease risk.

Geographic information systems and spatial analysis of adult Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the Middle Atlantic region of the U.S.A

In the Middle Atlantic region of the U.S.A., the vector of Lyme disease, human granulocytic ehrlichiosis, babesiosis, and other human and veterinary pathogens is the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say. In 1997 and 1998, 663 adult I. scapularis ticks were collected from 320 transects spanning 66,400 km2 in five states of the Middle Atlantic region. Tick abundance patterns were clustered, with relatively high numbers along the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay, decreasing to the west and south. There were significant associations between tick abundance and land cover, distance to water, distance to forest edge, elevation, and soil type.

Spatial analysis of human granulocytic ehrlichiosis near Lyme, Connecticut

Geographic information systems combined with methods of spatial analysis provide powerful new tools for understanding the epidemiology of diseases and for improving disease prevention and control. In this study, the spatial distribution of a newly recognized tick-borne disease, human granulocytic ehrlichiosis (HGE), was investigated for nonrandom patterns and clusters in an area known to be endemic for tick-borne diseases. Analysis of confirmed cases of HGE identified in 1997-2000 in a 12-town area around Lyme, Connecticut, showed that HGE infections are not distributed randomly. Smoothed HGE incidence was higher around the mouth of the Connecticut River and lower to the north and west. Cluster analysis identified one area of increased HGE risk (relative risk=1.8, p=0.001). This study demonstrates the utility of geographic information systems and spatial analysis to clarify the epidemiology of HGE.

Detection, characterization, and prediction of tick-borne disease foci

Tick-borne disease (TBD) transmission foci need to be characterized in space and time, and are often discontinuous on both scales. An active TBD focus is dependent on the fulfillment of three conditions: tick survival, pathogen survival and opportunities for human exposure. The essentials for tick survival include food sources, reproduction, and protection from environmental extremes. The pathogen survival kit includes sufficient densities of ticks and suitable reservoir hosts, and opportunities for transmission between them in order to maintain infection. Opportunities for human exposure depend on sufficient number of encounters between ticks and humans. Because tick foci need to be described on a range of spatial and temporal resolutions, data for such characterization include a variety of surveillance data, field and laboratory experimental data, as well as results of statistical and mathematical analysis and modeling. The application of new tools from molecular biology, geographic information systems (GIS), and satellite imagery, in conjunction with appropriate analytical methods allow for detection of unknown foci and prediction of new ones. A long-term multi-scale study of Ixodes scapularis and Lyme disease in the north-central U. S. is reviewed. Diverse surveillance methods of ticks, rodents, deer, canids and humans were coupled with environmental characterization in situ to create a habitat profile for Lyme disease ticks. Incorporating various digitized databases, a statistical model was used to develop a risk map for tick distribution in the region. The process of introduction and establishment of new tick foci along the Illinois River is described in relation to the known tick distribution and predictions of invasion based on the risk model.