Extinction risk from climate change

The comparative method in conservation biology

The phylogenetic comparative approach is a statistical method for analyzing correlations between traits across species. Whilst it has revolutionized evolutionary biology, can it work for conservation biology? Although it is correlative, advocates of the comparative method hope that it will reveal general mechanisms in conservation, provide shortcuts for prioritizing conservation research, and enable us to predict which species will experience (or create) problems in the future. Here, we ask whether these stated management goals are being achieved. We conclude that comparative methods are stimulating research into the ecological mechanisms underlying conservation, and are providing information for preemptive screening of problem species. But comparative analyses of extinction risk to date have tended to be too broad in scope to provide shortcuts to conserving particular endangered species. Correlates of vulnerability to conservation problems are often taxon, region and threat specific, so models must be narrowly focused to be of maximum practical use.

Effectiveness of the global protected area network in representing species diversity

The Fifth World Parks Congress in Durban, South Africa, announced in September 2003 that the global network of protected areas now covers 11.5% of the planet's land surface. This surpasses the 10% target proposed a decade earlier, at the Caracas Congress, for 9 out of 14 major terrestrial biomes. Such uniform targets based on percentage of area have become deeply embedded into national and international conservation planning. Although politically expedient, the scientific basis and conservation value of these targets have been questioned. In practice, however, little is known of how to set appropriate targets, or of the extent to which the current global protected area network fulfils its goal of protecting biodiversity. Here, we combine five global data sets on the distribution of species and protected areas to provide the first global gap analysis assessing the effectiveness of protected areas in representing species diversity. We show that the global network is far from complete, and demonstrate the inadequacy of uniform--that is, 'one size fits all'--conservation targets.