The epidemic behavior of the hepatitis C virus

Molecular methods of hepatitis C genotyping

Hepatitis C virus is an RNA virus that is associated with chronic infection in the majority of people infected. Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus is the cause of significant morbidity and mortality worldwide and is associated with a large spectrum of liver disease including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. End-stage liver disease due to chronic hepatitis C virus infection is currently the leading indication for liver transplantation in the USA. Hepatitis C virus genotyping of viral isolates circulating in the blood during chronic infection has become an important part of hepatitis C virus monitoring in chronically infected patients, and is useful as a prognostic indicator and to direct duration of therapy. This review will summarize information on hepatitis C genotyping, describe the limitations of current commercially available methods, give information on more recently developed methods, and provide a look to the future in terms of where advances in hepatitis C virus genotyping assays need to be made.

Molecular epidemiology: HIV-1 and HCV sequences from Libyan outbreak

In 1998, outbreaks of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were reported in children attending Al-Fateh Hospital in Benghazi, Libya. Here we use molecular phylogenetic techniques to analyse new virus sequences from these outbreaks. We find that the HIV-1 and HCV strains were already circulating and prevalent in this hospital and its environs before the arrival in March 1998 of the foreign medical staff (five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor) who stand accused of transmitting the HIV strain to the children.

Epidemic dynamics of two coexisting hepatitis C virus subtypes

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects about 3% of the human population. Phylogenetic analyses have grouped its variants into six major genotypes, which have a star-like distribution and several minor subtypes. The most abundant genotype in Europe is the so-called genotype 1, with two prevalent subtypes, 1a and 1b. In order to explain the higher prevalence of subtype 1b over 1a, a large-scale sequence analysis (100 virus clones) has been carried out over 25 patients of both subtypes in two regions of the HCV genome: one comprising hypervariable region 1 and another including the interferon sensitivity-determining region. Neither polymorphism analysis nor molecular variance analysis (attending to intra- and intersubtype differences, age, sex and previous history of antiviral treatment) was able to show any particular difference between subtypes that might account for their different prevalence. Only the demographic history of the populations carrying both subtypes and analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) for risk practice suggested that the route of transmission may be the most important factor to explain the observed difference.

Identification of a naturally occurring recombinant genotype 2/6 hepatitis C virus

Hepatitis C viruses (HCVs) display a high level of sequence diversity and are currently classified into six genotypes and an increasing number of subtypes. Most likely, this heterogeneity is caused by genetic drift; evidence for recombination is scarce. To study the molecular heterogeneity of HCV in Vietnam, we analyzed 58 HCV RNA-positive sera from Vietnamese blood donors by sequence analysis of the CORE and NS5B regions. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the presence of genotype 1 (38%), genotype 2 (10.3%), and genotype 6 viruses (51.7%). All samples showed concordant results except for two (D3 and D54). Sample D54 was a mixed infection of genotype 2i and 6h viruses. Whole-genome analysis and bootscan analysis of sample D3, on the other hand, revealed a recombinant virus with genotype 2i and genotype 6p sequences at the 5' and 3' ends, respectively. The crossover point was located between nucleotide positions 3405 to 3464 (numbering according to prototype strain HCV-H, M67463) at the NS2/NS3 junction. The identification of this naturally occurring recombinant virus strengthens the concept that recombination may play a role in HCV epidemiology and evolution. Furthermore, the location of the recombination breakpoint may be relevant for constructing infectious chimeric viruses.

Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio

The basic reproductive ratio, R0, is defined as the expected number of secondary infections arising from a single individual during his or her entire infectious period, in a population of susceptibles. This concept is fundamental to the study of epidemiology and within-host pathogen dynamics. Most importantly, R0 often serves as a threshold parameter that predicts whether an infection will spread. Related parameters which share this threshold behaviour, however, may or may not give the true value of R0. In this paper we give a brief overview of common methods of formulating R0 and surrogate threshold parameters from deterministic, non-structured models. We also review common means of estimating R0 from epidemiological data. Finally, we survey the recent use of R0 in assessing emerging diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, a number of recent livestock diseases, and vector-borne diseases malaria, dengue and West Nile virus.

Phylogenetic analysis of previously nontypeable hepatitis C virus isolates from Argentina

Phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis C virus isolates from Argentina that were previously nontypeable by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis revealed that they belong to genotype 1a. A substitution at position 107 (G-->A), which is the landmark of these strains, was shown to be distributed among isolates worldwide. The RFLP patterns obtained for these isolates should be added to the ones reported for genotype 1 isolates.

Hepatitis C virus genotypes and viral concentrations in participants of a general population survey in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Estimates of the long-term benefits of antiviral therapies for chronic hepatitis C are influenced by the frequency of characteristics that affect response in the population treated. This study determined hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and RNA titers among HCV-infected persons in the general population of the United States.

METHODS

Genotypes were determined from the NS5b region, and HCV RNA was quantified by using Amplicor Monitor (Roche Diagnostic Systems, Inc, Branchburg, NJ) from 275 HCV RNA-positive participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted during 1988 to 1994.

RESULTS

The HCV genotypes identified included 1a (n = 142), 1b (n = 73), 2a (n = 8), 2b (n = 27), 3a (n = 17), 4 (n = 3), and 6 (n = 5). Based on weighted analysis of persons infected with genotypes 1, 2, and 3, genotype 1 predominated in all age groups (75.3%). By racial/ethnic group, genotype 1 was found in 90.9% of non-Hispanic blacks, 69.6% of non-Hispanic whites, and 71.2% of Mexican Americans. After adjusting for age and gender, only non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity was independently associated with genotype 1 infection (adjusted odds ratio 4.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-12.8). The overall geometric mean concentration of HCV RNA was 2.1 x 10(6) IU/mL; concentrations > 2 million IU/mL were found in 53.0% overall and 50.3% of persons with genotype 1.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with chronic hepatitis C in the United States who may require treatment in the foreseeable future are predominantly infected with genotype 1, including a disproportionate number of non-Hispanic blacks. These features emphasize the need for improved therapies that reduce or eliminate complications from genotype 1 infections.

HCV genotype 4 in Belgium: three distinct patterns among patients from European and African origin

BACKGROUND

Considered uncommon in western countries some years ago, hepatitis C virus of genotype 4 is now spreading in some areas of Europe. This is assumed to be due to immigration from a region of high prevalence for this genotype and to propagation among drug users. In the south of Belgium, genotype 4 currently accounts for 10% of hepatitis C virus patients and its prevalence is increasing with time.

OBJECTIVE

To better define the genotype 4 carriers' characteristics.

METHODS

In a database comprising 1726 viraemic hepatitis C virus patients, the files of 85 genotype 4 carriers were reviewed.

RESULTS

Beside the African (58%) and European drug user (15%) subgroups classically described, a third subgroup consisting of European nondrug users (26%) was identified as peculiar: these patients were older, had been mostly contaminated sporadically, presented a great diversity of subtypes, and were mainly of Italian origin. In this subgroup, contamination was supposed to be ancient, having occurred probably in Italy before immigration into Belgium. By contrast, European drug users were infected with only two subtypes (4c/4d and 4), an observation in favour of recent spread. Africans had a great diversity of subtypes, were young, and were mostly contaminated sporadically in their home countries. Despite their epidemiological differences, the clinical management, and in particular the rates of eligibility for treatment, were similar for these three groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Three different patterns of genotype 4 carriers were observed, corresponding to three different spreading profiles. They did not induce, however, different clinical management.

A new subtype of hepatitis C virus genotype 1: complete genome and phylogenetic relationships of an Equatorial Guinea isolate

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading cause of chronic liver disease and is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, there have been few studies on the distribution and genetic diversity of HCV isolates in non-developed countries. Here, the complete genome sequence of an HCV genotype 1 isolate from Equatorial Guinea is reported, the first complete HCV-1 genome of African origin. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that this sequence always grouped with sequences of genotype 1, but did not group clearly with any subtype described so far. An analysis of partial NS5B gene sequences with additional sequences of African origin also failed to find close similarities between the new sequence and any previously known isolate. Genetic divergence of the coding region of this new sequence with respect to the recognized subtypes of HCV-1 ranged from 20 to 22%. It is proposed that this isolate is a representative of a new, distinct variant of HCV subtype 1.

Molecular tracing of Japan-indigenous hepatitis E viruses

The ancestor(s) of apparently Japan-indigenous strains of Hepatitis E virus (HEV) was probably of foreign origin, but it remains unclear when and from where it made inroads. In this study, 24 genotype 3 and 24 genotype 4 HEV strains recovered in Japan each showed a significant cluster, clearly distinct from those of foreign strains, in the phylogenetic tree constructed from an 821 nt RNA polymerase gene fragment. The evolutionary rate, approximately 0.8 x 10(-3) nucleotide substitutions per site per year, enabled tracing of the demographic history of HEV and suggested that the ancestors of Japan-indigenous HEV had made inroads around 1900, when several kinds of Yorkshire pig were imported from the UK to Japan. Interestingly, the evolutionary growth of genotype 3 in Japan has been slow since the 1920s, whereas genotype 4 has spread rapidly since the 1980s. In conclusion, these data suggest that the indigenization and spread of HEV in Japan were associated with the popularization of eating pork.

Investigating the origin and spread of hepatitis C virus genotype 5a

Epidemiological and phylogenetic studies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) have identified six major HCV genotypes and have attempted to characterize their origin and spread worldwide. Putative regions of endemic infection have been identified for all HCV genotypes except HCV genotype 5a. Although HCV genotype 5a was previously thought to be largely restricted to the northern part of South Africa, this study reports an unexpected cluster of the genotype in West Flanders Province in Belgium. To investigate the molecular epidemiology of this cluster and of HCV genotype 5a in general, a rigorous phylogenetic analysis of Belgian and South African HCV genotype 5a samples was performed. Remarkably, the Belgian and South African strains form two distinct clusters of similar diversity. We used a Bayesian coalescent method to estimate the rate of virus spread through time for HCV genotype 5a in both regions. Our results indicate that HCV genotype 5a strains have been spreading independently in Belgium and South Africa for more than 100 years, with a rate of spread characteristic of an epidemic genotype. These findings have major implications for tracing the origin of HCV genotype 5a. Here, we speculate about the possible origins of these clusters.

Population genetic history of hepatitis C virus 1b infection in China

Subtype 1b is the most common strain of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. Here, the molecular epidemiology and epidemic history of this strain were investigated by conducting phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of E1 and NS5B gene sequences sampled from nine Chinese cities. The phylogenetic analysis indicated the presence of two clusters of Chinese strains that did not include reference strains from other countries, suggesting that these clusters represent two independent chains of HCV transmission within China. The remaining Chinese isolates were more closely related to reference strains from other countries. The date of origin and past population dynamics of the two groups were investigated using a new population genetic method, the Bayesian skyline plot. The estimated dates of origin of both groups coincide with the period of the Chinese 'Cultural Revolution' during the years 1966-1976. Both groups grew at a rapid exponential rate between approximately 1970 and approximately 1990, after which transmission slowed considerably. Possible explanations for the groups' fast spread and subsequent slowdown are discussed, including parenteral transmission by unsafe injection, iatrogenic transmission by infected blood or blood products and improvements in blood safety since 1990. These results shed light on HCV transmission in China and may help to predict the future burden of HCV-related disease in the country.

Molecular tracing of the global hepatitis C virus epidemic predicts regional patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Molecular evolutionary analysis based on coalescent theory can provide important insights into epidemiologic processes worldwide. This approach was combined with analyses of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiologic-historical background and HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different countries.

METHODS

The HCV gene sequences of 131 genotype 1b (HCV-1b) strains from Japan, 38 HCV-1a strains from the United States, 33 HCV-1b strains from Spain, 27 HCV-3a strains from the former Soviet Union (FSU), 47 HCV-4a strains from Egypt, 25 HCV-5a strains from South Africa, and 24 HCV-6a strains from Hong Kong isolated in this study and previous studies were analyzed.

RESULTS

The coalescent analysis indicated that a transition from constant size to rapid exponential growth (spread time) occurred in Japan in the 1920s (HCV-1b), but not until the 1940s for the same genotype in Spain and other European countries. The spread time of HCV-1a in the United States was estimated to be in the 1960s; HCV-3a in the FSU, HCV-5a in South Africa, and HCV-6a in Hong Kong in the 1960s, mid-1950s, and late 1970s, respectively. Three different linear progression curves were determined by analysis of the relationship between HCV seroprevalence and HCC mortality in different geographic regions; a steep ascent indicated the greatest progression to HCC in Japan, a near horizontal line indicated the least progression in the United States and the FSU, and an intermediate slope was observed in Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings strongly suggest that the initial spread time of HCV is associated with the progression dynamics of HCC in each area, irrespective of genotype.

Expected increase in hepatitis C-related mortality in Egypt due to pre-2000 infections

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Egypt has the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in the world, apparently due to mass parenteral antischistosomal therapy. Estimating the future burden of HCV in Egypt is important to support health policies to combat the epidemic.

METHODS

A previous back calculation model was adapted to the situation in Egypt. It combines a model of the natural history of HCV infections with available epidemiological data to back calculate the past HCV incidence from observed 1980-1999 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality. In turn, the HCV-related mortality burden is projected in the future due to pre-2000 infections.

RESULTS

Compared with the observed number of HCC deaths in 1999, the model predicts a 3.5-fold increase in this mortality in the next 20 years. Globally, the model predicts a 2.4-fold increase in the HCV-related mortality. These predictions do not take into account the new infections that may occur after 2000, which would still increase the estimated future mortality burden.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV-related mortality is expected at least to double in the next 20 years. The use of antiviral therapies can lower these predictions. Efficient prevention policies are needed to avoid these predictions being exceeded.

Genetic diversity of HCV genotype 2 strains in South Western France

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic hepatitis and liver disease worldwide. The genetic heterogeneity of HCV and its spread among infected patients can be examined accurately by nucleotide sequencing. The diversity of HCV genotype 2 strains (HCV-2) was studied in a large cohort of patients in the Midi Pyrénées area of southern France. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on 344 NS5B sequences from patients infected with HCV-2. These included 145 strains whose E2 region was also analyzed, and epidemiological data were collected for the corresponding patients. HCV-2 accounts for 11.3% of HCV infections in this area. Phylogenetic analysis of NS5B sequences revealed eight subtypes, while that of the E2 region provided congruent results for 100% of strains. The most frequent subtypes were 2i (24.7%), 2k (22.4%) 2c (17.4%), and 2a (10.8%). The mean age of HCV-2-infected patients was 55.5 years. Epidemiological data showed that blood transfusion is the major route of infection, but it was not associated with any particular subtype. By contrast, intravenous drug users were infected predominantly with genotype 2a. HCV-2a-infected patients were younger than patients infected with other subtypes (48 vs. 56.5 years, P < 0.01). This study shows substantial genetic diversity of HCV-2 subtypes in the south of France and the spread of 2a strains via intravenous drug users.

High prevalence of hepatitis C virus subtypes 4c and 4d in Malaga (Spain): Phylogenetic and epidemiological analyses

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major aetiological agent of chronic hepatitis and it may lead to the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. HCV has been classified into six clades as a result of high genetic variability. A commercial procedure to genotype HCV in 678 patients from Carlos Haya Regional University Hospital, Malaga was used to study the distribution of HCV genotypes in Malaga, southern Spain. A high prevalence of HCV-4 (10.2%) was found. This genotype is found more commonly in Egypt, Central Africa and the Middle East. The distribution of the different subtypes in the 69 patients with HCV-4 was as follows: 4.3% subtype 4e, 7.2% subtype 4a, 11.5% not subtypable, and 76.8% subtype 4c/4d. Of the 53 4c/4d patients, 69% were intravenous drug users and 31% non-intravenous drug users. In order to characterise further the HCV-4c/4d patients, sequences of the non-structural 5B gene (393 bp) were obtained from 36 HCV-4c/4d-infected untreated patients. Phylogenetic tree topologies distinguished clearly the two subtypes: 11 patients were infected by subtype 4c and 25 by 4d. This phylogenetic analysis, reinforced by the epidemiological characteristics, suggests the extension of the HCV-4c and -4d subtypes in the area of Malaga among both intravenous drug users and non-intravenous drug users.

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C among drug users in Flanders, Belgium: association of genotype with clinical parameters and with sex- and drug-related risk behaviours

The aim of this study was to determine the genotypic variation of hepatitis C among drug users in Flanders and to relate the distribution of genotypes to the characteristics of the population. Hepatitis C virus RNA (HCV-RNA) quantification and genotyping was performed on stored samples from 161 anti-HCV-positive injecting and non-injecting drug users. Information on sociodemographic status, drug-related risk behaviour and sexual risk behaviour was available for each drug user. HCV-RNA was present in 152 of 161 samples (94.4%). Genotype 1 was predominant (48.7%), followed by genotype 3 (41.2%), genotype 4 (8.8%) and genotype 2 (1.4%). In the multivariate analysis, lack of a history of injecting drug use was confirmed as a statistically significant predictor for infection with genotype 1. Predictors for infection with genotype 3 were the presence of anti-HBc antibodies and a history of injecting drug use. Being tattooed emerged as a statistically significant predictor for infection with genotype 4. The 94.4% prevalence of HCV-RNA among anti-HCV-positive drug users was considerably higher than the 54-86% chronicity rate found globally among HCV-infected patients. The results of this study suggest the existence of separate transmission networks for injecting drug users and non-injecting drug users. Finally, the results suggest that tattooing practices play a role in the spread of HCV among drug users.

Evolution over a 10 year period of the epidemiological profile of 1,726 newly diagnosed HCV patients in Belgium

In order to evaluate the future burden of hepatitis C, there is a need to quantify the evolution with time of some crucial parameters such as disease frequency and age, modes of infection and infecting genotypes of patients presenting for the first time at consultation. The yearly evolution of these parameters was analyzed retrospectively in a cohort of 1,726 patients living in Belgium, who were diagnosed as hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) between 1992 and 2002. The epidemiological profile of HCV patients showed significant changes during this period. The number of new patients increased with time. The proportion of patients under 50 increased linearly at a rate of 3% per year. The rate of newly presenting patients infected by transfusion before 1990 decreased, but only by 2.7% per year. The proportion of intravenous (IV) drug users increased by 2.5% per year. Patients presenting "undefined" risk factors increased by 2.1% per year. Nosocomial acquisition of HCV infection exhibited a disturbing relative stability in time whereas dialysis tended to disappear as a cause of infection. There was a significant linear annual decrease of 2.3% in the frequency of genotype 1b, which was counterbalanced by a significant increase of 0.7% for genotype 1a and 1.1% for genotype 4. Genotypes 2 and 3 did not vary significantly with time. Such figures are useful for evaluating the epidemiological changes of C virus infection and for anticipating the future economical cost of hepatitis C treatment in the next few years.

Consensus proposals for a unified system of nomenclature of hepatitis C virus genotypes

International standardization and coordination of the nomenclature of variants of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is increasingly needed as more is discovered about the scale of HCV-related liver disease and important biological and antigenic differences that exist between variants. A group of scientists expert in the field of HCV genetic variability, and those involved in development of HCV sequence databases, the Hepatitis Virus Database (Japan), euHCVdb (France), and Los Alamos (United States), met to re-examine the status of HCV genotype nomenclature, resolve conflicting genotype or subtype names among described variants of HCV, and draw up revised criteria for the assignment of new genotypes as they are discovered in the future. A comprehensive listing of all currently classified variants of HCV incorporates a number of agreed genotype and subtype name re-assignments to create consistency in nomenclature. The paper also contains consensus proposals for the classification of new variants into genotypes and subtypes, which recognizes and incorporates new knowledge of HCV genetic diversity and epidemiology. A proposal was made that HCV variants be classified into 6 genotypes (representing the 6 genetic groups defined by phylogenetic analysis). Subtype name assignment will be either confirmed or provisional, depending on the availability of complete or partial nucleotide sequence data, or remain unassigned where fewer than 3 examples of a new subtype have been described. In conclusion, these proposals provide the framework by which the HCV databases store and provide access to data on HCV, which will internationally coordinate the assignment of new genotypes and subtypes in the future.

Spread Times of Hepatitis C Virus Estimated by the Molecular Clock Differ among Japan, the United States and Egypt in Reflection of Their Distinct Socioeconomic Backgrounds

Infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is taking an ever increasing role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over the world. Dynamics of HCV infection were determined by the molecular clock, estimating the dissemination time when HCV entered the country and the "spread time" when it started to grow exponentially on a national scale. A comparison of HCV dynamics in Japan, the United States and Egypt has disclosed different dissemination and spread times among the three countries. Furthermore, they faithfully mirror socioeconomic as well as medical and paramedical events inherent to each country responsible for the wide spread of HCV infection during the past. Epidemic histories of HCV would enable us to predict what is going to happen in the future for HCV infection, in special reference to HCC associated with it. Population dynamics of HCV need to be determined in other countries where HCV prevails and compared with those in the three countries described. These studies should help foresee what will happen in the near future for HCV infection in a given country, time the future development of HCC and take measures for preventing it.

Compartmentalization of hepatitis C virus genotypes between plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells

Differences in hepatitis C virus (HCV) variants of the highly conserved 5' untranslated region (UTR) have been observed between plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). The prevalence and the mechanisms of this compartmentalization are unknown. Plasma and PBMC HCV variants were compared by single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) and by cloning or by genotyping with a line probe assay (LiPA) in 116 chronically infected patients, including 44 liver transplant recipients. SSCP patterns differed between compartments in 43/109 analyzable patients (39%). Differences were significantly more frequent in patients with transplants (21/38 [55%] versus 22/71 [31%]; P < 0.01) and in those who acquired HCV through multiple transfusions before 1991 (15/20; 75%) or through drug injection (16/31; 52%) than in those infected through an unknown route (7/29; 24%) or through a single transfusion (5/29; 17%; P < 0.001). Cloning of the 5' UTR, LiPA analysis, and nonstructural region 5B sequencing revealed different genotypes in the two compartments from 10 patients (9%). In nine patients, the genotype detected in PBMC was not detected in plasma and was weak or undetectable in the liver in three cases. This genotypic compartmentalization persisted for years in three patients and after liver transplantation in two. The present study shows that a significant proportion of HCV-infected subjects harbor in their PBMC highly divergent variants which were likely acquired through superinfections.

Different Epidemic Potentials of the HIV-1B and C Subtypes

HIV, the cause of AIDS in humans, is characterized by great genetic heterogeneity. In particular, HIV-1 group M subtypes are responsible for most of the infections worldwide. We investigate the demographic history of HIV-1B and HIV-1C subtypes in South Africa and Brazil using both a parametric and a nonparametric approach based on coalescent theory. Our results show that although both subtypes are spreading exponentially in Brazil, the HIV-1C growth rate is about twice that of Brazilian HIV-1B or South African HIV-1C, providing evidence, for the first time, of a different epidemic potential between two HIV-1 subtypes. The present study not only may have important consequences for devising future vaccination and therapeutic strategies, but also offers additional evidence that skyline plots are indeed a simple and powerful tool for monitoring and predicting the behavior of viral epidemics.

The hepatitis C virus epidemic among injecting drug users

Given the economic and health costs of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and the ongoing transmission within the injecting drug user (IDU) population, there is a need for improved understanding of HCV epidemiology within this risk group. We employed a recently developed method based on phylogenetic analysis to infer HCV epidemic history and to provide the first estimates of the rate of spread of subtypes 1a and 3a circulating within injecting drug user populations. The data indicates that HCV subtype 1a entered the IDU population on at least three separate occasions. Both subtypes demonstrate exponential population growth during the 20th century, with a doubling time of 7-8 years. The results provide a baseline for prediction of the future course of the HCV epidemic, and its likely response to transmission control policies.

A Bayesian statistical analysis of human T-cell lymphotropic virus evolutionary rates

HTLV is a genetically-stable retrovirus that is considered to have evolved partly in concert with human migrations. Its rate of evolution is low and therefore, difficult to estimate reliably. In the first part of this study, we provide an improved estimate of HTLV evolutionary rate using anthropological calibration of phylogenetic nodes. We investigate two different anthropological calibrations using a Bayesian method that implements a relaxed molecular clock model and can combine data from multiple genes. The analysis shows that the two calibrations are compatible. In the second part, we develop a Bayesian statistical model to combine and compare the anthropology-based estimates of evolutionary rate with a rate recently calculated using pedigree data from vertically HTLV-infected families. We compare the statistical power of the two estimates and show that the current pedigree estimate, although resulting in considerably higher evolutionary rates, is too statistically weak to warrant a re-examination of the commonly used anthropology-based estimates. Statistical uncertainty burdens HTLV rate estimates based on both anthropological calibrations and on pedigree data; the former method rests on an untested assumption, whilst that latter is affected by small sample sizes.

Genetic analysis reveals the complex structure of HIV-1 transmission within defined risk groups

We explored the epidemic history of HIV-1 subtype B in the United Kingdom by using statistical methods that infer the population history of pathogens from sampled gene sequence data. Phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 pol gene sequences from Britain showed at least six large transmission chains, indicating a genetically variable, but epidemiologically homogeneous, epidemic among men having sex with men. Through coalescent-based analysis, we showed that these chains arose through separate introductions of subtype B strains into the United Kingdom in the early to mid-1980s. After an initial period of exponential growth, the rate of spread generally slowed in the early 1990s, which is more likely to correlate with behavior change than with reduced infectiousness resulting from highly active antiretroviral therapy. Our results provide insights into the complexity of HIV-1 epidemics that must be considered when developing HIV monitoring and prevention initiatives.

Heterogeneity of hepatitis C virus genotype 4 strains circulating in south-western France

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of liver disease. Knowledge of HCV variability is crucial for clinical and epidemiological analysis. HCV genotype 4 (HCV-4) has become increasingly prevalent in European countries, including France, in recent years. The present study investigates the heterogeneity of HCV-4 in south-western France by phylogenetic analysis of NS5B sequences from 166 patients. The E2 region of 90 strains was also analysed. Genotype 4 accounts for 7·4 % of HCV infections in this area. Analysis of the NS5B region revealed 12 subtypes and the NS5B and E2 phylogeny data were congruent, except for one strain. The epidemiological data indicated two main groups of patients. One included intravenous drug users (IVDUs) of French origin, who were infected by homogeneous strains of subtypes 4a or 4d. The second group comprised non-IVDU patients who were infected with heterogeneous strains. This group was subdivided into patients of French origin, who were infected with eight subtypes, and patients from non-European countries (Central Africa or the Middle East), who were mainly infected with 4f, 4k, 4r and other subtypes; they showed the greatest genetic heterogeneity. This study of a large cohort of patients shows the great diversity of HCV-4 strains, and that these subtypes have spread differently.

Tracing the history of hepatitis B virus genotype D in western Japan

The major hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes in Japan are B and C. HBV genotype D (HBV/D), however, is widespread in a small area of Western Japan, where the Gianotti-Crosti syndrome caused by HBV subtype ayw, which is suspected to be HBV/D, was endemic in the 1970s. The aim of the study was to elucidate its origin, time of transmission, and spread in this area. Genotyping of HBV-DNA was done in 363 patients with HBV infection. The year of birth was checked in patients with HBV/D. The full genome sequences of 20 HBV/D strains, 2 of which were obtained from a single carrier with a 19-year-interval, were analyzed. An evolutionary rate, the date of the most recent common ancestor, and the effective number of HBV/D infections were calculated. Fifty-two of 363 patients were infected with HBV/D, and 39 were born in 1970s. In a phylogenetic tree, the 20 HBV/D strains produced a definite cluster, and the evolutionary rate was calculated to be 5.4 x 10(-5) nucleotide substitutions/site/year. The root of the tree was estimated to be in approximately 1,900 and began to spread from the 1940s, leading to a rapid increase of infected patients in the 1970s. From these results, it is suspected that HBV/D was likely transmitted to the area investigated approximately 100 years ago and then spread widely in the 1970s. From the history of the area and the genetic analysis, HBV/D in this area was speculated to be of Russian origin.

Geographic distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes in Brazil

Brazil is a country of continental dimension with a population of different ethnic backgrounds. Thus, a wide variation in the frequencies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes is expected to occur. To address this point, 1,688 sequential samples from chronic HCV patients were analyzed. HCV-RNA was amplified by the RT-PCR from blood samples collected from 1995 to 2000 at different laboratories located in different cities from all Brazilian States. Samples were collected in tubes containing a gel separator, centrifuged in the site of collection and sent by express mail in a refrigerated container to Laboratório Bioquímico Jardim Paulista, São Paulo, SP, Brazil. HCV-RNA was extracted from serum and submitted to RT and nested PCR using standard procedures. Nested PCR products were submitted to cycle sequencing reactions without prior purification. Sequences were analyzed for genotype determination and the following frequencies were found: 64.9% (1,095) for genotype 1, 4.6% (78) for genotype 2, 30.2% (510) for genotype 3, 0.2% (3) for genotype 4, and 0.1% (2) for genotype 5. The frequencies of HCV genotypes were statistically different among Brazilian regions (P = 0.00017). In all regions, genotype 1 was the most frequent (51.7 to 74.1%), reaching the highest value in the North; genotype 2 was more prevalent in the Center-West region (11.4%), especially in Mato Grosso State (25.8%), while genotype 3 was more common in the South (43.2%). Genotypes 4 and 5 were rarely found and only in the Southeast, in São Paulo State. The present data indicate the need for careful epidemiological surveys throughout Brazil since knowing the frequency and distribution of the genotypes would provide key information for understanding the spread of HCV.

Molecular evolutionary analyses implicate injection treatment for schistosomiasis in the initial hepatitis C epidemics in Japan

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has ranged widely in various areas of Japan since 30 years ago and the incidence was particularly high in once Schistosoma japonicum (Sj)-endemic areas. Our aim was to estimate the spread time of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the past with possible relevance to a higher incidence of HCC in once Sj-endemic than Sj-nonendemic areas.

METHODS

During 2001, 131 strains of HCV-1b were obtained from patients in three previously Sj-endemic areas, as well as Sj-nonendemic areas in Japan and a cross-sectional study was conducted on them with molecular evolutionary analyses.

RESULTS

A phylogenetic tree reconstructed on HCV-1b sequences in the NS5B region disclosed 2 independent clusters for Sj-positive and -negative groups with a high bootstrap value. The estimated effective number of HCV-infections indicated a transition from quiescence to rapid exponential growth in the 1920s among patients with schistosomiasis, which is 20 years earlier than that among patients without schistosomiasis.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated spread time in previously Sj-endemic areas in Japan coincides with injection treatment for Sj since 1921. A high incidence of HCC there would be attributed to a long duration of HCV infection since 1920s.

Genetic diversity and evolution of hepatitis C virus--15 years on

In the 15 years since the discovery of hepatitis C virus (HCV), much has been learned about its role as a major causative agent of human liver disease and its ability to persist in the face of host-cell defences and the immune system. This review describes what is known about the diversity of HCV, the current classification of HCV genotypes within the family Flaviviridae and how this genetic diversity contributes to its pathogenesis. On one hand, diversification of HCV has been constrained by its intimate adaptation to its host. Despite the >30 % nucleotide sequence divergence between genotypes, HCV variants nevertheless remain remarkably similar in their transmission dynamics, persistence and disease development. Nowhere is this more evident than in the evolutionary conservation of numerous evasion methods to counteract the cell's innate antiviral defence pathways; this series of highly complex virus-host interactions may represent key components in establishing its 'ecological niche' in the human liver. On the other hand, the mutability and large population size of HCV enables it to respond very rapidly to new selection pressures, manifested by immune-driven changes in T- and B-cell epitopes that are encountered on transmission between individuals with different antigen-recognition repertoires. If human immunodeficiency virus type 1 is a precedent, future therapies that target virus protease or polymerase enzymes may also select very rapidly for antiviral-resistant mutants. These contrasting aspects of conservatism and adaptability provide a fascinating paradigm in which to explore the complex selection pressures that underlie the evolution of HCV and other persistent viruses.

Exponential spread of hepatitis C virus genotype 4a in Egypt

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects >10% of the general population in Egypt, in which intravenous injection with an antimony compound for endemic schistosomiasis in the past has been implicated. To simulate the epidemic history of HCV in Egypt, sera were obtained from 3608 blood donors at 13 governorates in or surrounding the Nile valley during 1999. The prevalence of antibody to HCV (anti-HCV) and genotypes was determined in them, and the molecular evolutionary analysis based on the neutral theory was applied to HCV isolates of genotype 4a, which is outstandingly prevalent in Egypt and indigenous there. Of 3608 sera, 317 (8.8%) were positive for anti-HCV. The molecular evolutionary analysis on 47 HCV genotype 4a isolates of carriers from various districts in Egypt indicated that the spread of HCV-4a would have increased exponentially during the 1940s through 1980 when oral medications became available. In conclusion, the estimated spread time is consistent with the duration of intravenous antimony campaigns in Egypt.

High prevalence of hepatitis C virus type 5 in central France evidenced by a prospective study from 1996 to 2002

From 1996 to 2002, hepatitis C virus (HCV) typing was prospectively performed for 1,281 unselected HCV-infected and viremic patients, irrespective of their clinical status. Eighty-three patients (6.5%) were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and HCV. A total of 1,195 strains were identified by a serotype screening (Murex HCV Serotyping 1-6 assay) and/or genotyping (Inno-LiPA HCV II) test. The distribution of HCV types showed an unusually high rate of type 5 (14.2%) that was stable over time and was the third most frequent type, after type 1 (59.1%) and type 3 (15.1%). HCV type 5 was more frequent in patients who were older than 50 (P = 10(-6)), but its frequency did not differ significantly by gender (P = 0.21). Serotyping was performed for 1,160 strains but failed for 30.2% of them. The efficiency depended on HIV status (for HCV-HIV-coinfected patients, half of the strains were untypeable) and HCV type. Genotyping was performed for 428 samples, with an overall efficiency of 99.3%. It failed in three cases, which were subsequently identified as HCV type 2. Serotyping and genotyping results for 39 patients showed discrepancies between the two methods for 4 patients, who had HCV type 2, type 6, or mixed infections. Thus, HCV type 5 may also be encountered frequently in Western countries. Its apparent confinement to a restricted area raises the question of how it emerged and underscores the need for further studies of HCV type prevalence, routes of transmission, pathogenicity, and responses to treatment.

A discussion of findings and their possible implications from a workshop on bioterrorism threat assessment and risk management

In November 2001, the Monterey Institute of International Studies convened a workshop on bioterrorism threat assessment and risk management. Risk assessment practitioners from various disciplines, but without specialized knowledge of terrorism, were brought together with security and intelligence threat analysts to stimulate an exchange that could be useful to both communities. This article, prepared by a subset of the participants, comments on the workshop's findings and their implications and makes three recommendations, two short term (use of threat assessment methodologies and vulnerability analysis) and one long term (application of quantitative risk assessment and modeling), regarding the practical application of risk assessment methods to bioterrorism issues.

High prevalence of hepatitis C virus type 5 in central France evidenced by a prospective study from 1996 to 2002

From 1996 to 2002, hepatitis C virus (HCV) typing was prospectively performed for 1,281 unselected HCV-infected and viremic patients, irrespective of their clinical status. Eighty-three patients (6.5%) were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and HCV. A total of 1,195 strains were identified by a serotype screening (Murex HCV Serotyping 1-6 assay) and/or genotyping (Inno-LiPA HCV II) test. The distribution of HCV types showed an unusually high rate of type 5 (14.2%) that was stable over time and was the third most frequent type, after type 1 (59.1%) and type 3 (15.1%). HCV type 5 was more frequent in patients who were older than 50 (P = 10(-6)), but its frequency did not differ significantly by gender (P = 0.21). Serotyping was performed for 1,160 strains but failed for 30.2% of them. The efficiency depended on HIV status (for HCV-HIV-coinfected patients, half of the strains were untypeable) and HCV type. Genotyping was performed for 428 samples, with an overall efficiency of 99.3%. It failed in three cases, which were subsequently identified as HCV type 2. Serotyping and genotyping results for 39 patients showed discrepancies between the two methods for 4 patients, who had HCV type 2, type 6, or mixed infections. Thus, HCV type 5 may also be encountered frequently in Western countries. Its apparent confinement to a restricted area raises the question of how it emerged and underscores the need for further studies of HCV type prevalence, routes of transmission, pathogenicity, and responses to treatment.

Hepatitis C virus isolates from Argentina disclose a novel genotype 1-associated restriction pattern

Hepatitis C virus isolates which disclosed a novel genotype 1-associated restriction pattern by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis were characterized. Except for a mother and child pair, the patients were unrelated. Sequence analysis showed a G-->A substitution leading to a new RsaI recognition site. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these isolates constitute a novel genetic lineage within the main cluster of genotype 1 strains.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes in the Caribbean island of Martinique: evidence for a large radiation of HCV-2 and for a recent introduction from Europe of HCV-4

Molecular epidemiological studies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Caribbean may help to specify the origin and spread of HCV infection. Indeed, the Caribbean population is intermixed from European and African origins and geographically close to the American continent. We characterized HCV genotypes in the Caribbean island of Martinique. HCV genotypes were analyzed by sequencing or reverse hybridization in the 5' noncoding region (5'NC) in 250 HCV-monoinfected and 85 HCV-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfected patients. In addition, sequencing in the nonstructural 5B (NS5B) gene was required to determine the subtype or to perform phylogenetic analysis in selected samples. Genotypes 1 to 6 were found, respectively, in 84.4, 6.8, 5.2, 2.8, 0.4, and 0.4% of 250 HCV-monoinfected patients and in 71.7, 7.1, 15.3, 5.9, 0, and 0% of 85 HCV-HIV-coinfected patients. HCV-1b was found in 66.4% of the HCV-monoinfected patients and was associated with blood transfusion, whereas HCV-1a was detected in 41.2% of the HCV-HIV-coinfected patients and was associated with intravenous drug use (IVDU). The HCV-3 strains belonged to subtype 3a and were linked to IVDU. Phylogenetic analyses were focused on HCV-2 and HCV-4, which are common in Africa. Two opposite patterns were evidenced. NS5B sequences from 19 HCV-2 isolates were affiliated with many different subtypes described either in Europe or in West Africa, suggesting an ancient radiation. In contrast, seven of the nine HCV-4 NS5B sequences ranged within HCV-4a and HCV-4d clusters spreading in continental France by the IVDU route. Epidemiological data demonstrate the recent introduction of HCV-4a and -4d subtypes into the Caribbean.

The population genetics and evolutionary epidemiology of RNA viruses

The authors discuss the main mechanisms of RNA virus evolution — mutation, recombination, natural selection, genetic drift and migration, and how these interact to shape the genetic structure of populations. The quasispecies model of RNA virus evolution is explained and the question of whether this model provides an accurate description of RNA virus evolution is discussed. Experiments that can be carried out to test the basic principles of evolutionary theory are briefly described. The authors review what such experiments have told us about virus evolution and, more widely, what these experiments have revealed in terms of general evolutionary principles. RNA viruses evolve quickly, so a detailed reconstruction of their epidemiological history can be undertaken. The authors show how epidemiological patterns of viruses result from their evolution at two different levels: within individual hosts (and vectors) and among hosts at the population level. Using several examples, including HIV and SARS, the authors describe how studying RNA virus evolution could be used to understand virus emergence. Finally, the important topics of the evolution of virulence and resistance to drugs are discussed.

RNA viruses are ubiquitous intracellular parasites that are responsible for many emerging diseases, including AIDS and SARS. Here, we discuss the principal mechanisms of RNA virus evolution and highlight areas where future research is required. The rapidity of sequence change in RNA viruses means that they are useful experimental models for the study of evolution in general and it enables us to watch them change in 'real time', and retrace the spread through populations with molecular phylogenies. An understanding of the mechanisms of RNA virus sequence change is also crucial to predicting important aspects of their emergence and long-term evolution.

The phylogeography of human viruses

Viruses, especially those with RNA genomes, represent ideal organisms to study the dynamics of microevolutionary change. In particular, their rapid rate of nucleotide substitution means that the epidemiological processes that shape their diversity act on the same time-scale as mutations are fixed in viral populations. Consequently, the branching structure of virus phylogenies provides a unique insight into spatial and temporal dynamics. Herein, I describe the key processes in virus phylogeography. These are generally associated with the relative rates of dispersal among populations and virus-host codivergence (vicariance), and the division between acute (short-term) and persistent (long-term) infections. These processes will be illustrated by important human viruses - HIV, dengue, rabies, polyomavirus JC and human papillomavirus - which display varying spatial and temporal structures and virus-host relationships. Key research questions for the future will also be established.

A phylogenetic reconstruction of the epidemiological history of canine rabies virus variants in Colombia

Historically, canine rabies in Colombia has been caused by two geographically distinct canine variants of rabies virus (RV) which between 1992 and 2002 accounted for approximately 95% of Colombian rabies cases. Genetic variant 1 (GV1) has been isolated up until 1997 in the Central Region and the Department of Arauca, and is now considered extinct through a successful vaccination program. Genetic variant 2 (GV2) has been isolated from the northern Caribbean Region and continues to circulate at present. Here we have analyzed two sets of sequence data based upon either a 147 nucleotide region of the glycoprotein (G) gene or a 258 nucleotide region that combines a fragment of the non-coding intergenic region and a fragment of the polymerase gene. Using both maximum likelihood (ML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods we have estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the two variants to be between 1983 and 1988. Reconstructions of the population history suggest that GV2 has been circulating in Colombia since the 1960s and that GV1 evolved as a separate lineage from GV2. Estimations of the effective population size at present show the GV2 outbreak to be approximately 20 times greater than that of GV1. Demographic reconstructions were unable to detect a decrease in population size concurrent with the elimination of GV1. We find a raised rate of nucleotide substitution for GV1 gene sequences when compared to that of GV2, although all estimates have wide confidence limits. We demonstrate that phylogenetic reconstructions and sequence analysis can be used to support incidence data from the field in the assessment of RV epidemiology.

Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens

A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

Human immunodeficiency virus in Uzbekistan: epidemiological and genetic analyses

This study investigates the molecular epidemiology of HIV in Uzbekistan--a former Soviet Union (FSU) country located in central Asia. A total of 18,910,370 subjects were involved in an HIV serological examination through a population survey conducted in 1987-2002. Rapid changes in epidemiological dynamics and transmission modes have been observed since 1999: incidence rose from 25 newly HIV-infected subjects per year to more than 100 new cases per month within the first half of 2002, and the rate of intravenous drug use (IVDU)-associated HIV infection increased to 75% per year during the same period. Thirty HIV-1 strains, isolated from specimens obtained in 1999-2000, were directly sequenced in the env region. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a relationship to genotype A in 56.7%, and to 03_CRFAB in 13.3%; both variants have been previously reported in the FSU. The majority (85.7%) of these strains were isolated from IVDUs. The demographic history of the most prevalent HIV strain in Uzbekistan was inferred from reconstructed molecular phylogenies; exponential growth of the viral population size was thus observed to occur after the mid-1990s. In summary, detectable HIV seroprevalence remains low in the general population of Uzbekistan. However, the current study demonstrates a substantially increasing number of new infections, in association with IVDU, and an exponentially growing effective population size of the IVDU-associated HIV strain.

Phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis C virus isolates indicates a unique pattern of endemic infection in Cameroon

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne pathogen that poses a significant threat to public health worldwide. The genetic diversity and distribution of HCV genotypes in non-Western countries, particularly subSaharan Africa, is poorly documented. This study reports a phylogenetic analysis of core and NS5B gene sequences of 37 HCV strains sampled in Cameroon. A high level of genetic diversity of both genotypes 1 and 4 was found, indicating a unique pattern of long-term HCV infection that has not been observed elsewhere. These results lead to the hypothesis that these HCV genotypes originated and diversified in west Central Africa before spreading to other regions.

Comparative population dynamics of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Among the members of the genus Flavivirus are several important human pathogens, including the dengue (DEN) and Japanese encephalitis (JE) viruses. From the analysis of gene sequence data of samples of these virus populations it is possible to infer phylogenetic relationships, which in turn can yield important epidemiological information, including their demographic history in humans. In this study, we use a recently developed method, based on coalescent theory, to infer the population dynamics of a variety of mosquito-borne flaviviruses. Our study involves the testing of alternative hypotheses, the estimation of confidence intervals around demographic model parameter values, and the placing of the maximum likelihood (ML) demographic model into a "real time" epidemiological history. We reveal that all the Flavivirus populations studied are growing at an exponential rate, with the rates of population growth of dengue virus serotypes 2 and 3 increasing rapidly in the recent past, and that of Japanese encephalitis virus changing from constant population size to exponential growth within the last century. We therefore demonstrate that the use of these coalescent methods may be extremely valuable in monitoring responses to interventions such as vaccination or vector control.

Liver transplantation with hepatitis C virus-infected graft: interaction between donor and recipient viral strains

Superinfection of different viral strains within a single host provides an opportunity for studying host-virus and virus-virus interactions, including viral interference and genetic recombination, which cannot be studied in infections with single viral strains. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a positive single-strand RNA virus that establishes persistent infection in as many as 85% of infected individuals. However, there are few reports regarding coinfection or superinfection of HCV. Because of the lack of tissue culture systems and small animal models supporting efficient HCV replication, we explored these issues in the setting of liver transplantation where both recipient and donor were infected with different HCV strains and therefore represent a distinct model for HCV superinfection. Serial serum samples collected at multiple time points were obtained from 6 HCV-positive liver donor/recipient pairs from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases liver transplantation database. At each time point, HCV genotype was determined by both restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis and phylogenetic analysis. Furthermore, we selectively sequenced 3 full-length HCV isolates at the earliest time points after liver transplantation, including both 5' and 3' ends. Detailed genetic analyses showed that only one strain of HCV could be identified at each time point in all 6 cases. Recipient HCV strains took over in 3 cases, whereas donor HCV strains dominated after liver transplantation in the remaining 3 cases. In conclusion, in all 6 cases studied, there was no genetic recombination detected among HCV quasispecies or between donor and recipient HCV strains.

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U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 subtype B sequences (whole envelope and the p17 region of gag) were obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples collected in 1981 from seven HIV-infected U.S. individuals and in 1982 from one infected Canadian resident. Phylogenetic and nucleotide distance analyses were performed by using database sequences representing North American strains collected from 1978 to 1995. The estimated phylogeny was starlike, with early strains represented on different lineages. When sequences were grouped by years of collection, nucleotide distance comparisons demonstrated an increase in diversity over time and indicated that contemporary strains are more closely related to early epidemic strains than to each other. Using a recently developed likelihood ratio reduction procedure, the date of origin of the U.S. epidemic was estimated to be 1968 +/- 1.4 years. A coalescent approach was also used to estimate the population history of the U.S. subtype B epidemic. Our analyses provide new information that implies an exponential growth rate from the beginning of the U.S. HIV epidemic. The dating results suggest a U.S. introduction date (or date of divergence from the most recent common ancestor) that precedes the date of the earliest known AIDS cases in the late 1970s. Furthermore, the estimated epidemic growth curve shows a period of exponential growth that preceded most of the early documented cases and also indicates a leveling of prevalence rates in the recent past.

Tracing the origin and history of the HIV-2 epidemic

In this study we date the introduction of HIV-2 into the human population and estimate the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau, the putative geographic origin of HIV-2. The evolutionary history of the simian immunodeficiency virussooty mangabey/HIV-2 lineage was reconstructed by using available database sequences with known sampling dates, and a timescale for this history was calculated by using maximum likelihood methods. The date of the most recent common ancestor of HIV-2 subtype A strains was estimated to be 1940 +/- 16 and that of B strains was estimated to be 1945 +/- 14. In addition we used coalescent theory to estimate the past population dynamics of HIV-2 subtype A in a rural population of Guinea-Bissau. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the effective number of infections through time were obtained for an equal sample of gag, pol, and env sequences. Our estimates of the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau show a transition from constant size to rapid exponential growth around 1955-1970. Our analysis provides evidence for a zoonotic transfer of HIV-2 during the first half of the 20th century and an epidemic initiation in Guinea-Bissau that coincides with the independence war (1963-1974), suggesting that war-related changes in sociocultural patterns had a major impact on the HIV-2 epidemic.