The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens

Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in Chano Mille, South Ethiopia: a longitudinal study

We assessed potential effects of local meteorological and environmental conditions, indoor residual spraying with insecticides, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) use at individual and community levels, and individual factors on Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in a village in south Ethiopia. A cohort of 8,121 people was followed for 101 weeks with active and passive surveillance. Among 317 microscopically confirmed P. falciparum malaria episodes, 29.3% occurred among temporary residents. The incidence density was 3.6/10,000 person-weeks of observation. We observed higher malaria incidence among males, children 5-14 years of age, ITNs non-users, the poor, and people who lived closer to vector breeding places. Rainfall increased and indoor residual spraying with Deltamethrin reduced falciparum incidence. Although ITNs prevented falciparum malaria for the users, we did not find that free mass ITNs distribution reduced falciparum malaria on a village level.

The interactive roles of Aedes aegypti super-production and human density in dengue transmission

Background

A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007–2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban ‘patches’ (1–3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R₀) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R₀, and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities.

Significance/Conclusions

These results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person's home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy.

In the urban dengue system the life history of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, transpires mainly inside and around human residences. In this study we integrated field data from an endemic city of Colombia into a simulation model to assess how natural variation in A. aegypti production and household human density influence dengue transmission. Contrary to traditional models, we show that the basic reproductive rate of dengue (R_o) is more likely to be positively correlated with human density. Moreover, the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti production, where a few super-productive houses dominate vector recruitment, caused a "super-spreading" pattern, whereby the large majority of viral introductions did not generate secondary infections, and R_o depended on sporadic, highly explosive transmission events. These events were dependent on the introduced infectious human infecting mosquitoes produced in super-productive vessels. When the likelihood of human introduction was incorporated into our risk indicator, a significant interaction emerged between human density and A. aegypti super production, such that removal of these containers had a much larger impact on reducing dengue in areas of higher human density. These results show that knowledge of interactions between human population density, social interactions and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti can improve the design of dengue control efforts.

Airport sentinel surveillance and entry quarantine for dengue infections following a fever screening program in Taiwan

Background

Dengue has not reached an endemic status in Taiwan; nevertheless, we have implemented a fever screening program at airports for the early detection of febrile passengers with a dengue infection. This study is intended to assess the performance of the airport screening procedures for dengue infection.

Methods

We analyzed data from the national surveillance system of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. We included the imported dengue cases reported by sentinel airports and clinics as well as the domestic cases from 2007–2010.

Results

Approximately 44.9% (95%CI: 35.73-54.13%) of the confirmed imported dengue cases with an apparent symptom (febrile) in the viremic stage were detected via the airport fever screening program, with an estimated positive predictive value of 2.36% (95% CI: 0.96- 3.75%) and a negative predictive value > 99.99%. Fluctuations in the number of the symptomatic imported dengue cases identified in the airports (X) were associated with the total number of imported dengue cases (Y) based on a regression analysis of a biweekly surveillance (i.e., n = 104, R²_X:Y = 0.61, P < 0.005). Additionally, the fluctuating patterns in the cumulative numbers of the imported dengue cases (X) with a 1–2 month lead time (t) was in parallel with that of the domestic dengue cases (Y) based on a consecutive 4-year surveillance (i.e., n = 48, R²_X(t-1):Y = 0.22, R²_X(t-2):Y = 0.31, P < 0.001) from 2007–2010.

Conclusions

A moderate sensitivity of detecting dengue at the airports examined in this study indicated some limitations of the fever screening program for the prevention of importation. The screening program could assist in the rapid triage for self-quarantine of some symptomatic dengue cases that were in the viremic stage at the borders and contribute to active sentinel surveillance; however, the blocking of viral transmission to susceptible populations (neighbors or family) from all of the viremic travelers, including those with or without symptoms, is critical to prevent dengue epidemics. Therefore, the reinforcement of mosquito bite prevention and household vector control in dengue-endemic or dengue-competent hotspots during an epidemic season is essential and highly recommended.

Occurrence of natural vertical transmission of dengue-2 and dengue-3 viruses in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus perform an important role in the transmission of the dengue virus to human populations, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Despite a lack of understanding in relation to the maintenance of the dengue virus in nature during interepidemic periods, the vertical transmission of the dengue virus in populations of A. aegypti and A. albopictus appears to be of significance in relation to the urban scenario of Fortaleza.

METHODS

From March 2007 to July 2009 collections of larvae and pupae of Aedes spp were carried out in 40 neighborhoods of Fortaleza. The collections yielded 3,417 (91%) A. aegypti mosquitoes and 336 (9%) A. albopictus mosquitoes. Only pools containing females, randomly chosen, were submitted to the following tests indirect immunofluorescence (virus isolation), RT-PCR/nested-PCR and nucleotide sequencing at the C-prM junction of the dengue virus genome.

RESULTS

The tests on pool 34 (35 A. albopictus mosquitoes) revealed with presence of DENV-3, pool 35 (50 A. aegypti mosquitoes) was found to be infected with DENV-2, while pool 49 (41 A. albopictus mosquitoes) revealed the simultaneous presence of DENV-2 and DENV-3. Based on the results obtained, there was a minimum infection rate of 0.5 for A. aegypti and 9.4 for A. albopictus. The fragments of 192 bp and 152 bp related to DENV-3, obtained from pools 34 and 49, was registered in GenBank with the access codes HM130699 and JF261696, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study recorded the first natural evidence of the vertical transmission of the dengue virus in populations of A. aegypti and A. albopictus collected in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil, opening a discuss on the epidemiological significance of this mechanism of viral transmission in the local scenario, particularly with respect to the maintenance of these viruses in nature during interepidemic periods.

Water level flux in household containers in Vietnam--a key determinant of Aedes aegypti population dynamics

We examined changes in the abundance of immature Aedes aegypti at the household and water storage container level during the dry-season (June-July, 2008) in Tri Nguyen village, central Vietnam. We conducted quantitative immature mosquito surveys of 171 containers in the same 41 households, with replacement of samples, every two days during a 29-day period. We developed multi-level mixed effects regression models to investigate container and household variability in pupal abundance. The percentage of houses that were positive for I/II instars, III/IV instars and pupae during any one survey ranged from 19.5–43.9%, 48.8–75.6% and 17.1–53.7%, respectively. The mean numbers of Ae. aegypti pupae per house ranged between 1.9–12.6 over the study period. Estimates of absolute pupal abundance were highly variable over the 29-day period despite relatively stable weather conditions. Most variability in pupal abundance occurred at the container rather than the household level. A key determinant of Ae. aegypti production was the frequent filling of the containers with water, which caused asynchronous hatching of Ae. aegypti eggs and development of cohorts of immatures. We calculated the probability of the water volume of a large container (>500L) increasing or decreasing by ≥20% to be 0.05 and 0.07 per day, respectively, and for small containers (<500L) to be 0.11 and 0.13 per day, respectively. These human water-management behaviors are important determinants of Ae. aegypti production during the dry season. This has implications for choosing a suitable Wolbachia strain for release as it appears that prolonged egg desiccation does not occur in this village.

Space-time analysis of hospitalised dengue patients in rural Thailand reveals important temporal intervals in the pattern of dengue virus transmission

OBJECTIVE

To determine the temporal intervals at which spatial clustering of dengue hospitalisations occurs.

METHODS

Space-time analysis of 262 people hospitalised and serologically confirmed with dengue virus infections in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand was performed. The cases were observed between 1 January 2009 and 6 May 2011. Spatial coordinates of each patient's home were captured using the Global Positioning System. A novel method based on the Knox test was used to determine the temporal intervals between cases at which spatial clustering occurred. These intervals are indicative of the length of time between successive illnesses in the chain of dengue virus transmission.

RESULTS

The strongest spatial clustering occurred at the 15-17-day interval. There was also significant spatial clustering over short intervals (2-5 days). The highest excess risk was observed within 200 m of a previous hospitalised case and significantly elevated risk persisted within this distance for 32-34 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Fifteen to seventeen days are the most likely serial interval between successive dengue illnesses. This novel method relies only on passively detected, hospitalised case data with household locations and provides a useful tool for understanding region-specific and outbreak-specific dengue virus transmission dynamics.

Fine scale spatiotemporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in children and Aedes aegypti in rural Thai villages

BACKGROUND

Based on spatiotemporal clustering of human dengue virus (DENV) infections, transmission is thought to occur at fine spatiotemporal scales by horizontal transfer of virus between humans and mosquito vectors. To define the dimensions of local transmission and quantify the factors that support it, we examined relationships between infected humans and Aedes aegypti in Thai villages.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Geographic cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were conducted around DENV-positive and DENV-negative febrile "index" cases (positive and negative clusters, respectively) from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Thailand. Child contacts and Ae. aegypti from cluster houses were assessed for DENV infection. Spatiotemporal, demographic, and entomological parameters were evaluated. In positive clusters, the DENV infection rate among child contacts was 35.3% in index houses, 29.9% in houses within 20 meters, and decreased with distance from the index house to 6.2% in houses 80-100 meters away (p<0.001). Significantly more Ae. aegypti were DENV-infectious (i.e., DENV-positive in head/thorax) in positive clusters (23/1755; 1.3%) than negative clusters (1/1548; 0.1%). In positive clusters, 8.2% of mosquitoes were DENV-infectious in index houses, 4.2% in other houses with DENV-infected children, and 0.4% in houses without infected children (p<0.001). The DENV infection rate in contacts was 47.4% in houses with infectious mosquitoes, 28.7% in other houses in the same cluster, and 10.8% in positive clusters without infectious mosquitoes (p<0.001). Ae. aegypti pupae and adult females were more numerous only in houses containing infectious mosquitoes.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Human and mosquito infections are positively associated at the level of individual houses and neighboring residences. Certain houses with high transmission risk contribute disproportionately to DENV spread to neighboring houses. Small groups of houses with elevated transmission risk are consistent with over-dispersion of transmission (i.e., at a given point in time, people/mosquitoes from a small portion of houses are responsible for the majority of transmission).

Human movement data for malaria control and elimination strategic planning

Recent increases in funding for malaria control have led to the reduction in transmission in many malaria endemic countries, prompting the national control programmes of 36 malaria endemic countries to set elimination targets. Accounting for human population movement (HPM) in planning for control, elimination and post-elimination surveillance is important, as evidenced by previous elimination attempts that were undermined by the reintroduction of malaria through HPM. Strategic control and elimination planning, therefore, requires quantitative information on HPM patterns and the translation of these into parasite dispersion. HPM patterns and the risk of malaria vary substantially across spatial and temporal scales, demographic and socioeconomic sub-groups, and motivation for travel, so multiple data sets are likely required for quantification of movement. While existing studies based on mobile phone call record data combined with malaria transmission maps have begun to address within-country HPM patterns, other aspects remain poorly quantified despite their importance in accurately gauging malaria movement patterns and building control and detection strategies, such as cross-border HPM, demographic and socioeconomic stratification of HPM patterns, forms of transport, personal malaria protection and other factors that modify malaria risk. A wealth of data exist to aid filling these gaps, which, when combined with spatial data on transport infrastructure, traffic and malaria transmission, can answer relevant questions to guide strategic planning. This review aims to (i) discuss relevant types of HPM across spatial and temporal scales, (ii) document where datasets exist to quantify HPM, (iii) highlight where data gaps remain and (iv) briefly put forward methods for integrating these datasets in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework for analysing and modelling human population and Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection movements.

Malaria ecotypes and stratification

To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna malaria; larval control may be considered though its role is not so far well established. In contrast, urban malaria in the Indian subcontinent is associated with higher risks than most adjacent rural areas, and larval control has a definite, though not exclusive, role. Simulation modelling of cost-effectiveness of malaria control strategies in different scenarios should prioritize ecotypes where malaria control encounters serious technical problems. Further field research on malaria and ecology should be interdisciplinary, especially with geography, and pay more attention to juxtapositions and to anthropic elements, especially migration.

Human exposure to anopheline mosquitoes occurs primarily indoors, even for users of insecticide-treated nets in Luangwa Valley, South-east Zambia

BACKGROUND

Current front line malaria vector control methods such as indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), rely upon the preference of many primary vectors to feed and/or rest inside human habitations where they can be targeted with domestically-applied insecticidal products. We studied the human biting behaviour of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus Giles and the potential malaria vector Anopheles quadriannulatus Theobald in Luangwa valley, south-east Zambia.

METHODS

Mosquitoes were collected by human landing catch in blocks of houses with either combined use of deltamethrin-based IRS and LLINs or LLINs alone. Human behaviour data were collected to estimate how much exposure to mosquito bites indoors and outdoors occurred at various times of the night for LLIN users and non-users.

RESULTS

Anopheles funestus and An. quadriannulatus did not show preference to bite either indoors or outdoors: the proportions [95% confidence interval] caught indoors were 0.586 [0.303, 0.821] and 0.624 [0.324, 0.852], respectively. However, the overwhelming majority of both species were caught at times when most people are indoors. The proportion of mosquitoes caught at a time when most people are indoors were 0.981 [0.881, 0.997] and 0.897 [0.731, 0.965], respectively, so the proportion of human exposure to both species occuring indoors was high for individuals lacking LLINs (An. funestus: 0.983 and An. quadriannulatus: 0.970, respectively). While LLIN users were better protected, more than half of their exposure was nevertheless estimated to occur indoors (An. funestus: 0.570 and An. quadriannulatus: 0.584).

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of human exposure to both An. funestus and An. quadriannulatus occuring indoors was high in the area and hence both species might be responsive to further peri-domestic measures if these mosquitoes are susceptible to insecticidal products.

Underrecognized mildly symptomatic viremic dengue virus infections in rural Thai schools and villages

BACKGROUND

The understanding of dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics and the clinical spectrum of infection are critical to informing surveillance and control measures. Geographic cluster studies can elucidate these features in greater detail than cohort studies alone.

METHODS

A 4-year longitudinal cohort and geographic cluster study was undertaken in rural Thailand. Cohort children underwent pre-/postseason serology and active school absence-based surveillance to detect inapparent and symptomatic dengue. Cluster investigations were triggered by cohort dengue and non-dengue febrile illnesses (positive and negative clusters, respectively).

RESULTS

The annual cohort incidence of symptomatic dengue ranged from 1.3% to 4.4%. DENV-4 predominated in the first 2 years, DENV-1 in the second 2 years. The inapparent-to-symptomatic infection ratio ranged from 1.1:1 to 2.9:1. Positive clusters had a 16.0% infection rate, negative clusters 1.1%. Of 119 infections in positive clusters, 59.7% were febrile, 20.2% were afebrile with other symptoms, and 20.2% were asymptomatic. Of 16 febrile children detected during cluster investigations who continued to attend school, 9 had detectable viremia.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue transmission risk was high near viremic children in both high- and low-incidence years. Inapparent infections in the cohort overestimated the rate of asymptomatic infections. Ambulatory children with mild febrile viremic infections could represent an important component of dengue transmission.

Emergence and prevalence of human vector-borne diseases in sink vector populations

Vector-borne diseases represent a major public health concern in most tropical and subtropical areas, and an emerging threat for more developed countries. Our understanding of the ecology, evolution and control of these diseases relies predominantly on theory and data on pathogen transmission in large self-sustaining ‘source’ populations of vectors representative of highly endemic areas. However, there are numerous places where environmental conditions are less favourable to vector populations, but where immigration allows them to persist. We built an epidemiological model to investigate the dynamics of six major human vector borne-diseases in such non self-sustaining ‘sink’ vector populations. The model was parameterized through a review of the literature, and we performed extensive sensitivity analysis to look at the emergence and prevalence of the pathogen that could be encountered in these populations. Despite the low vector abundance in typical sink populations, all six human diseases were able to spread in 15–55% of cases after accidental introduction. The rate of spread was much more strongly influenced by vector longevity, immigration and feeding rates, than by transmission and virulence of the pathogen. Prevalence in humans remained lower than 5% for dengue, leishmaniasis and Japanese encephalitis, but substantially higher for diseases with longer duration of infection; malaria and the American and African trypanosomiasis. Vector-related parameters were again the key factors, although their influence was lower than on pathogen emergence. Our results emphasize the need for ecology and evolution to be thought in the context of metapopulations made of a mosaic of sink and source habitats, and to design vector control program not only targeting areas of high vector density, but working at a larger spatial scale.

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models.Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites.In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets and their limitations on epidemiological analyses. We review sources of detailed, contemporary, freely available and relevant spatial demographic data focusing on low income regions where such data are often sparse and highlight the value of incorporating these through a set of examples of their application in disease studies. Moreover, the importance of acknowledging, measuring, and accounting for uncertainty in spatial demographic datasets is outlined. Finally, a strategy for building an open-access database of spatial demographic data that is tailored to epidemiological applications is put forward.

A prospective cohort study to evaluate peridomestic infection as a determinant of dengue transmission: protocol

Background

Vector control programs, which have focused mainly on the patient house and peridomestic areas around dengue cases, have not produced the expected impact on transmission. This project will evaluate the assumption that the endemic/epidemic transmission of dengue begins around peridomestic vicinities of the primary cases. Its objective is to assess the relationship between symptomatic dengue case exposure and peridomestic infection incidence.

Methods/Design

A prospective cohort study will be conducted (in Tepalcingo and Axochiapan, in the state of Morelos, Mexico), using the state surveillance system for the detection of incident cases. Paired blood specimens will be collected from both the individuals who live with the incident cases and a sample of subjects residing within a 25-meter radius of such cases (exposed cohort), in order to measure dengue-specific antibodies. Other subjects will be selected from areas which have not presented any incident cases within 200 meters, during the two months preceding the sampling (non-exposed cohort). Symptomatic/asymptomatic incident infection will be considered as the dependent variable, exposure to confirmed dengue cases, as the principal variable, and the socio-demographic, environmental and socio-cultural conditions of the subjects, as additional explanatory variables.

Discussion

Results indicating a high infection rate among the exposed subjects would justify the application of peridomestic control measures and call for an evaluation of alternate causes for insufficient program impact. On the other hand, a low incidence of peridomestic-infected subjects would support the hypothesis that infection occurs outside the domicile, and would thus explain why the vector control measures applied in the past have exerted such a limited impact on cases incidence rates. The results of the present study may therefore serve to reassess site selection for interventions of this type.

Assessing the role of spatial heterogeneity and human movement in malaria dynamics and control

Mathematical models developed for studying malaria dynamics often focus on a single, homogeneous population. However, human movement connects environments with potentially different malaria transmission characteristics. To address the role of human movement and spatial heterogeneity in malaria transmission and malaria control, we consider a simple malaria metapopulation model incorporating two regions, or patches, connected by human movement, with different degrees of malaria transmission in each patch. Using our two-patch model, we calculate and analyze the basic reproduction number, R(0), an epidemiologically important threshold quantity that indicates whether malaria will persist or go extinct in a population. Although R(0) depends on the rates of human movement, we show that R(0) is always bounded between the two quantities R(01) and R(02)-the reproduction numbers for the two patches if isolated. If without migration, the disease is endemic in one patch but not in the other, then the addition of human migration can cause the disease to persist in both patches. This result indicates that regions with low malaria transmission should have an interest in helping to control or eliminate malaria in regions with higher malaria endemicity if human movement connects them. Performing a sensitivity analysis of R(0) and the endemic equilibrium to various parameters in the two-patch model allowed us to determine, under different parameterizations of the model, which patch will be the better target for control measures, and within that patch, what type of control measure should be implemented. In the analysis of R(0), we found that if the extrinsic incubation period is shorter than the average mosquito lifespan, the control measures should be targeted towards reducing the mosquito biting rate. On the other hand, if the extrinsic incubation period is longer than the average mosquito lifespan, control measures targeting the mosquito death rate will be more effective. Intuitively, one might think that resources for malaria control should be allocated to the region with higher malaria transmission. However, our sensitivity analyses indicated that this is not always the case. In fact, if migration into the lower transmission patch is much faster than migration into the higher transmission patch, the lower transmission patch is potentially the better target for malaria control efforts. While human movement between regions poses challenges to malaria control and elimination, if estimates of relevant parameters in the model are known, including migration rates, our results can help inform which region to target and what type of control measure to implement for the greatest success.

Spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission across interepidemic and epidemic periods in Iquitos, Peru (1999-2003)

Background

Knowledge of spatial patterns of dengue virus (DENV) infection is important for understanding transmission dynamics and guiding effective disease prevention strategies. Because movement of infected humans and mosquito vectors plays a role in the spread and persistence of virus, spatial dimensions of transmission can range from small household foci to large community clusters. Current understanding is limited because past analyses emphasized clinically apparent illness and did not account for the potentially large proportion of inapparent infections. In this study we analyzed both clinically apparent and overall infections to determine the extent of clustering among human DENV infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted spatial analyses at global and local scales, using acute case and seroconversion data from a prospective longitudinal cohort in Iquitos, Peru, from 1999–2003. Our study began during a period of interepidemic DENV-1 and DENV-2 transmission and transitioned to epidemic DENV-3 transmission. Infection status was determined by seroconversion based on plaque neutralization testing of sequential blood samples taken at approximately six-month intervals, with date of infection assigned as the middate between paired samples. Each year was divided into three distinct seasonal periods of DENV transmission. Spatial heterogeneity was detected in baseline seroprevalence for DENV-1 and DENV-2. Cumulative DENV-3 seroprevalence calculated by trimester from 2001–2003 was spatially similar to preexisting DENV-1 and DENV-2 seroprevalence. Global clustering (case-control Ripley's K statistic) appeared at radii of ∼200–800 m. Local analyses (Kuldorf spatial scan statistic) identified eight DENV-1 and 15 DENV-3 clusters from 1999–2003. The number of seroconversions per cluster ranged from 3–34 with radii from zero (a single household) to 750 m; 65% of clusters had radii >100 m. No clustering was detected among clinically apparent infections.

Conclusions/Significance

Seroprevalence of previously circulating DENV serotypes can be a predictor of transmission risk for a different invading serotype and, thus, identify targets for strategically placed surveillance and intervention. Seroprevalence of a specific serotype is also important, but does not preclude other contributing factors, such as mosquito density, in determining where transmission of that virus will occur. Regardless of the epidemiological context or virus serotype, human movement appears to be an important factor in defining the spatial dimensions of DENV transmission and, thus, should be considered in the design and evaluation of surveillance and intervention strategies.

To target prevention and control strategies for dengue fever, it is essential to understand how the virus travels through the city. We report spatial analyses of dengue infections from a study monitoring school children and adult family members for dengue infection at six-month intervals from 1999–2003, in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. At the beginning of the study, only DENV serotypes 1 and 2 were circulating. Clusters of infections of these two viruses were concentrated in the northern region of the city, where mosquito indices and previous DENV infection were both high. In 2002, DENV-3 invaded the city, replacing DENV-1 and -2 as the dominant strain. During the invasion process, the virus spread rapidly across the city, at low levels. After this initial phase, clusters of infection appeared first in the northern region of the city, where clusters of DENV-1 and DENV-2 had occurred in prior years. Most of the clusters we identified had radii >100 meters, indicating that targeted or reactive treatment of these high-risk areas might be an effective proactive intervention strategy. Our results also help explain why vector control within 100 m of a dengue case is often not successful for large-scale disease prevention.

Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics

Background

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries.

Dengue fever is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics. Since no vaccine exists, understanding and predicting outbreaks remain of crucial interest. Climate influences the mosquito-vector biology and the viral transmission cycle. Its impact on dengue dynamics is of growing interest. We analyzed the epidemiology of dengue in Noumea (New Caledonia) from 1971 to 2010 and its relationships with local and remote climate conditions using an original approach combining a comparison of epidemic and non epidemic years, bivariate and multivariate analyses. We found that the occurrence of outbreaks in Noumea was strongly influenced by climate during the last forty years. Efficient models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of outbreak as a function of two meteorological variables that were contemporaneous (explicative model) or prior (predictive model) to the outbreak onset. Local threshold values of maximal temperature and relative humidity were identified. Our results provide new insights to understand the link between climate and dengue outbreaks, and have a substantial impact on dengue management in New Caledonia since the health authorities have integrated these models into their decision making process and vector control policies. This raises the possibility to provide similar early warning systems in other countries.

Clinical and virological study of dengue cases and the members of their households: the multinational DENFRAME Project

Background

Dengue has emerged as the most important vector-borne viral disease in tropical areas. Evaluations of the burden and severity of dengue disease have been hindered by the frequent lack of laboratory confirmation and strong selection bias toward more severe cases.

Methodology

A multinational, prospective clinical study was carried out in South-East Asia (SEA) and Latin America (LA), to ascertain the proportion of inapparent dengue infections in households of febrile dengue cases, and to compare clinical data and biological markers from subjects with various dengue disease patterns. Dengue infection was laboratory-confirmed during the acute phase, by virus isolation and detection of the genome. The four participating reference laboratories used standardized methods.

Principal Findings

Among 215 febrile dengue subjects—114 in SEA and 101 in LA—28 (13.0%) were diagnosed with severe dengue (from SEA only) using the WHO definition. Household investigations were carried out for 177 febrile subjects. Among household members at the time of the first home visit, 39 acute dengue infections were detected of which 29 were inapparent. A further 62 dengue cases were classified at early convalescent phase. Therefore, 101 dengue infections were found among the 408 household members. Adding these together with the 177 Dengue Index Cases, the overall proportion of dengue infections among the study participants was estimated at 47.5% (278/585; 95% CI 43.5–51.6). Lymphocyte counts and detection of the NS1 antigen differed significantly between inapparent and symptomatic dengue subjects; among inapparent cases lymphocyte counts were normal and only 20% were positive for NS1 antigen. Primary dengue infection and a specific dengue virus serotype were not associated with symptomatic dengue infection.

Conclusion

Household investigation demonstrated a high proportion of household members positive for dengue infection, including a number of inapparent cases, the frequency of which was higher in SEA than in LA.

Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease in humans. This disease is now endemic in more than 100 countries and threatens more than 2.5 billion people living in tropical countries. It currently affects about 50 to 100 million people each year. It causes a wide range of symptoms, from an inapparent to mild dengue fever, to severe forms, including dengue hemorrhagic fever. Currently no specific vaccine or antiviral drugs are available. We carried out a prospective clinical study in South-East Asia and Latin America, of virologically confirmed dengue-infected patients attending the hospital, and members of their households. Among 215 febrile dengue subjects, 177 agreed to household investigation. Based on our data, we estimated the proportion of dengue-infected household members to be about 45%. At the time of the home visit, almost three quarters of (29/39) presented an inapparent dengue infection. The proportion of inapparent dengue infection was higher in South-East Asia than in Latin America. These findings confirm the complexity of dengue disease in humans and the need to strengthen multidisciplinary research efforts to improve our understanding of virus transmission and host responses to dengue virus in various human populations.

A model framework to estimate impact and cost of genetics-based sterile insect methods for dengue vector control

Vector-borne diseases impose enormous health and economic burdens and additional methods to control vector populations are clearly needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been successful against agricultural pests, but is not in large-scale use for suppressing or eliminating mosquito populations. Genetic RIDL technology (Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal) is a proposed modification that involves releasing insects that are homozygous for a repressible dominant lethal genetic construct rather than being sterilized by irradiation, and could potentially overcome some technical difficulties with the conventional SIT technology. Using the arboviral disease dengue as an example, we combine vector population dynamics and epidemiological models to explore the effect of a program of RIDL releases on disease transmission. We use these to derive a preliminary estimate of the potential cost-effectiveness of vector control by applying estimates of the costs of SIT. We predict that this genetic control strategy could eliminate dengue rapidly from a human community, and at lower expense (approximately US$ 2∼30 per case averted) than the direct and indirect costs of disease (mean US$ 86–190 per case of dengue). The theoretical framework has wider potential use; by appropriately adapting or replacing each component of the framework (entomological, epidemiological, vector control bio-economics and health economics), it could be applied to other vector-borne diseases or vector control strategies and extended to include other health interventions.

Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar

The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying malaria importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission.Estimates of Zanzibar's importation rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data and ferry traffic between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania were re-analyzed using a model of heterogeneous travel risk. Second, a dynamic mathematical model of importation and transmission rates was used.Zanzibar residents traveling to malaria endemic regions were estimated to contribute 1-15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. The malaria importation rate was estimated to be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Local transmission was estimated too low to sustain transmission in most places.Malaria infections in Zanzibar largely result from imported malaria and subsequent transmission. Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination appears feasible by implementing control measures based on detecting imported malaria cases and controlling onward transmission.

Co-occurrence patterns of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti and Aedes mediovitattus, a dengue competent mosquito in Puerto Rico

Aedes aegypti is implicated in dengue transmission in tropical and subtropical urban areas around the world. Ae. aegypti populations are controlled through integrative vector management. However, the efficacy of vector control may be undermined by the presence of alternative, competent species. In Puerto Rico, a native mosquito, Ae. mediovittatus, is a competent dengue vector in laboratory settings and spatially overlaps with Ae. aegypti. It has been proposed that Ae. mediovittatus may act as a dengue reservoir during inter-epidemic periods, perpetuating endemic dengue transmission in rural Puerto Rico. Dengue transmission dynamics may therefore be influenced by the spatial overlap of Ae. mediovittatus, Ae. aegypti, dengue viruses, and humans. We take a landscape epidemiology approach to examine the association between landscape composition and configuration and the distribution of each of these Aedes species and their co-occurrence. We used remotely sensed imagery from a newly launched satellite to map landscape features at very high spatial resolution. We found that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is positively predicted by urban density and by the number of tree patches, Ae. mediovittatus is positively predicted by the number of tree patches, but negatively predicted by large contiguous urban areas, and both species are predicted by urban density and the number of tree patches. This analysis provides evidence that landscape composition and configuration is a surrogate for mosquito community composition, and suggests that mapping landscape structure can be used to inform vector control efforts as well as to inform urban planning.

The role of climate variability and change in the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of dengue

The mounting evidence for anthropogenic changes in global climate raises many pressing questions about the potential effects on biological systems, and in particular the transmission of infectious diseases. Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, may be particularly sensitive to both periodic fluctuations and sustained changes in global and local climates, because vector biology and viral replication are temperature- and moisture-dependent. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the associations between climate variability, climate change and dengue transmission, and the tools being used to quantify these associations. The underlying causes of dengue's recent global expansion are multifactorial and poorly understood, but climatic factors should be considered within the context of the sociodemographic, economic and immunological determinants that have contributed to dengue's spread. These factors may mediate the direct effects of climate on dengue and many may operate at a very local level. Translating theoretical models of dengue transmission based on historical data into predictive models that can inform public health interventions is a critical next step and efforts should be focused on developing and refining models at smaller spatial scales to characterize the relationships between both climatic and non-climatic factors and dengue risk.

Dengue epidemics and human mobility

In this work we explore the effects of human mobility on the dispersion of a vector borne disease. We combine an already presented stochastic model for dengue with a simple representation of the daily motion of humans on a schematic city of 20 × 20 blocks with 100 inhabitants in each block. The pattern of motion of the individuals is described in terms of complex networks in which links connect different blocks and the link length distribution is in accordance with recent findings on human mobility. It is shown that human mobility can turn out to be the main driving force of the disease dispersal.

The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

Background

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies.

Methods

Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country.

Results

Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature.

Conclusions

Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

Successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil: social and environmental context, policies, interventions, and research needs

Despite pronounced reductions in the number of deaths due to infectious diseases over the past six decades, infectious diseases are still a public health problem in Brazil. In this report, we discuss the major successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil, and identify research needs and policies to further improve control or interrupt transmission. Control of diseases such as cholera, Chagas disease, and those preventable by vaccination has been successful through efficient public policies and concerted efforts from different levels of government and civil society. For these diseases, policies dealt with key determinants (eg, the quality of water and basic sanitation, vector control), provided access to preventive resources (such as vaccines), and successfully integrated health policies with broader social policies. Diseases for which control has failed (such as dengue fever and visceral leishmaniasis) are vector-borne diseases with changing epidemiological profiles and major difficulties in treatment (in the case of dengue fever, no treatment is available). Diseases for which control has been partly successful have complex transmission patterns related to adverse environmental, social, economic, or unknown determinants; are sometimes transmitted by insect vectors that are difficult to control; and are mostly chronic diseases with long infectious periods that require lengthy periods of treatment.

Defective interfering viral particles in acute dengue infections

While much of the genetic variation in RNA viruses arises because of the error-prone nature of their RNA-dependent RNA polymerases, much larger changes may occur as a result of recombination. An extreme example of genetic change is found in defective interfering (DI) viral particles, where large sections of the genome of a parental virus have been deleted and the residual sub-genome fragment is replicated by complementation by co-infecting functional viruses. While most reports of DI particles have referred to studies in vitro, there is some evidence for the presence of DI particles in chronic viral infections in vivo. In this study, short fragments of dengue virus (DENV) RNA containing only key regulatory elements at the 3′ and 5′ ends of the genome were recovered from the sera of patients infected with any of the four DENV serotypes. Identical RNA fragments were detected in the supernatant from cultures of Aedes mosquito cells that were infected by the addition of sera from dengue patients, suggesting that the sub-genomic RNA might be transmitted between human and mosquito hosts in defective interfering (DI) viral particles. In vitro transcribed sub-genomic RNA corresponding to that detected in vivo could be packaged in virus like particles in the presence of wild type virus and transmitted for at least three passages in cell culture. DENV preparations enriched for these putative DI particles reduced the yield of wild type dengue virus following co-infections of C6–36 cells. This is the first report of DI particles in an acute arboviral infection in nature. The internal genomic deletions described here are the most extensive defects observed in DENV and may be part of a much broader disease attenuating process that is mediated by defective viruses.

The role of population movement in the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis in Brazil: a preliminary typology of population movement

This paper examines recent developments in migration studies. It reviews literature related to the potential role of internal population movement in the occurrence of schistosomiasis in Brazil and modifies Prothero's typology of population movement for use in Brazil. This modified classification system may contribute to a better understanding of schistosome transmission as well as improved research and control programs. The results of this study indicate that population movement in Brazil primarily involves economically-motivated rural-urban and interregional movement. However, several movement patterns have become increasingly important in recent years as a result of changing socioeconomic and urbanisation dynamics. These patterns include urban-urban, intracity and urban-rural movement as well as the movement of environmental refugees and tourists. Little is known about the epidemiological significance of these patterns. This paper also highlights the role of social networks in the decision to migrate and to settle. Prothero's classic population movement typology categorises movement as either one-way migrations or circulations and examines them along spatial and temporal scales. However, the typology must be modified as epidemiological information about new patterns becomes available. This paper identifies areas that require further research and offers recommendations that can improve the measurement and spatial analysis of the relationship between population movement and schistosomiasis.

Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1(st)) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2(nd)) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue monitoring and control system.

Quantifying the spatial dimension of dengue virus epidemic spread within a tropical urban environment

Background

Dengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic's index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control.

Methods and Findings

We retrospectively analyzed data from 383 DENV-2 confirmed cases and 1,163 IRS applications performed during the 25-week epidemic period. Spatial (local k-function, angular wavelets) and space-time (Knox test) analyses quantified the intensity and directionality of clustering of dengue cases, whereas a semi-parametric Bayesian space-time regression assessed the impact of IRS and spatial autocorrelation in the odds of weekly dengue infection. About 63% of the cases clustered up to 800 m around the IC's house. Most cases were distributed in the NW-SE axis as a consequence of the spatial arrangement of blocks within the city and, possibly, the prevailing winds. Space-time analysis showed that DENV-2 infection spread rapidly, generating 18 clusters (comprising 65% of all cases), and that these clusters varied in extent as a function of their distance to the IC's residence. IRS applications had a significant protective effect in the further occurrence of dengue cases, but only when they reached coverage of 60% or more of the neighboring premises of a house.

Conclusion

By applying sound statistical analysis to a very detailed dataset from one of the largest outbreaks that affected the city of Cairns in recent times, we not only described the spread of dengue virus with high detail but also quantified the spatio-temporal dimension of dengue virus transmission within this complex urban environment. In areas susceptible to non-periodic dengue epidemics, effective disease prevention and control would depend on the prompt response to introduced cases. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

Global trends in population growth and human redistribution and movement have reshaped the map of dengue transmission risk, exposing a significant proportion of the world's population to the threat of dengue epidemics. Knowledge on the relative contribution of vector and human movement to the widespread and explosive nature of dengue epidemic spread within an urban environment is limited. By analyzing a very detailed dataset of a dengue epidemic that affected the Australian city of Cairns we performed a comprehensive quantification of the spatio-temporal dimensions of dengue virus epidemic transmission and propagation within a complex urban environment. Space and space-time analysis and models allowed derivation of detailed information on the pattern of introduction and epidemic spread of dengue infection within the urban space. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to many other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

Spatially disaggregated disease transmission risk: land cover, land use and risk of dengue transmission on the island of Oahu

Vector-borne diseases persist in transmission systems that usually comprise heterogeneously distributed vectors and hosts leading to a highly heterogeneous case distribution. In this study, we build on principles of classical mathematical epidemiology to investigate spatial heterogeneity of disease risk for vector-borne diseases. Land cover delineates habitat suitability for vectors, and land use determines the spatial distribution of humans. We focus on the risk of exposure for dengue transmission on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, where the vector Aedes albopictus is well established and areas of dense human population exist. In Hawai'i, dengue virus is generally absent, but occasionally flares up when introduced. It is therefore relevant to investigate risk, but difficult to do based on disease incidence data. Based on publicly available data (land cover, land use, census data, surveillance mosquito trapping), we map the spatial distribution of vectors and human hosts and finally overlay them to produce a vector-to-host ratio map. The resulting high-resolution maps indicate a high spatial variability in vector-to-host ratio suggesting that risk of exposure is spatially heterogeneous and varies according to land cover and land use.

Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries

Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955-72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated.

The effects of tertiary and quaternary infections on the epidemiology of dengue

The epidemiology of dengue is characterised by irregular epidemic outbreaks and desynchronised dynamics of its four co-circulating virus serotypes. Whilst infection by one serotype appears to convey life-long protection to homologous infection, it is believed to be a risk factor for severe disease manifestations upon secondary, heterologous infection due to the phenomenon of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Subsequent clinical infections are rarely reported and, since the majority of dengue infections are generally asymptomatic, it is not clear if and to what degree tertiary or quaternary infections contribute to dengue epidemiology. Here we investigate the effect of third and subsequent infections on the transmission dynamics of dengue and show that although the qualitative patterns are largely equivalent, the system more readily exhibits the desynchronised serotype oscillations and multi-annual epidemic outbreaks upon their inclusion. More importantly, permitting third and fourth infections significantly increases the force of infection without resorting to high basic reproductive numbers. Realistic age-prevalent patterns and seroconversion rates are therefore easier reconciled with a low value of dengue's transmission potential if allowing for more than two infections; this should have important consequences for dengue control and intervention measures.

International population movements and regional Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies

Calls for the eradication of malaria require the development of global and regional strategies based on a strong and consistent evidence base. Evidence from the previous global malaria eradication program and more recent transborder control campaigns have shown the importance of accounting for human movement in introducing infections to areas targeted for elimination. Here, census-based migration data were analyzed with network analysis tools, Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission maps, and global population databases to map globally communities of countries linked by relatively high levels of infection movements. The likely principal sources and destinations of imported cases in each region were also mapped. Results indicate that certain groups of countries, such as those in West Africa and central Asia are much more strongly connected by relatively high levels of population and infection movement than others. In contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and Myanmar display significantly greater isolation in terms of likely infection movements in and out. The mapping here of both communities of countries linked by likely higher levels of infection movement, and "natural" migration boundaries that display reduced movement of people and infections between regions has practical utility. These maps can inform the design of malaria elimination strategies by identifying regional communities of countries afforded protection from recolonization by surrounding regions of reduced migration. For more isolated countries, a nationally focused control or elimination program is likely to stand a better chance of success than those receiving high levels of visitors and migrants from high-transmission regions.

A geographical approach to identify sleeping sickness risk factors in a mangrove ecosystem

OBJECTIVES

To provide a better understanding of sleeping sickness transmission and spread in mangrove areas to optimize its control.

METHODS

In the Forecariah mangrove area, Guinea, 19 sleeping sickness cases and 19 matched controls were followed up in their living areas (at home, in fields and at water points). All occupational sites and pathways were mapped and then placed in their environmental context.

RESULTS

The sleeping sickness cases displayed a significantly broader and more diverse spatial occupation than the controls. They covered double the daily walking distances of controls and had on average two more occupational sites, most of which were located in mangrove forests. Activities with a higher transmission risk (rice culture, attendance of pirogue jetties) were identified as well as high-risk areas and pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

An entomological control strategy targeting transmission risk areas is proposed. Its implementation in a control programme would reduce by 86% the efforts needed for a classical vector control programme throughout the area. Medical surveys set up at specific locations, such as pirogue jetties and high-risk paths, should also enable better targeting of the population at highest risk.

Interpreting malaria age-prevalence and incidence curves: a simulation study of the effects of different types of heterogeneity

Background

Individuals in a malaria endemic community differ from one another. Many of these differences, such as heterogeneities in transmission or treatment-seeking behaviour, affect malaria epidemiology. The different kinds of heterogeneity are likely to be correlated. Little is known about their impact on the shape of age-prevalence and incidence curves. In this study, the effects of heterogeneity in transmission, treatment-seeking and risk of co-morbidity were simulated.

Methods

Simple patterns of heterogeneity were incorporated into a comprehensive individual-based model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology. The different types of heterogeneity were systematically simulated individually, and in independent and co-varying pairs. The effects on age-curves for parasite prevalence, uncomplicated and severe episodes, direct and indirect mortality and first-line treatments and hospital admissions were examined.

Results

Different heterogeneities affected different outcomes with large effects reserved for outcomes which are directly affected by the action of the heterogeneity rather than via feedback on acquired immunity or fever thresholds. Transmission heterogeneity affected the age-curves for all outcomes. The peak parasite prevalence was reduced and all age-incidence curves crossed those of the reference scenario with a lower incidence in younger children and higher in older age-groups. Heterogeneity in the probability of seeking treatment reduced the peak incidence of first-line treatment and hospital admissions. Heterogeneity in co-morbidity risk showed little overall effect, but high and low values cancelled out for outcomes directly affected by its action. Independently varying pairs of heterogeneities produced additive effects. More variable results were produced for co-varying heterogeneities, with striking differences compared to independent pairs for some outcomes which were affected by both heterogeneities individually.

Conclusions

Different kinds of heterogeneity both have different effects and affect different outcomes. Patterns of co-variation are also important. Alongside the absolute levels of different factors affecting age-curves, patterns of heterogeneity should be considered when parameterizing or validating models, interpreting data and inferring from one outcome to another.

The epidemiology of Leishmania donovani infection in high transmission foci in India

OBJECTIVE

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is highly prevalent in Bihar, India. India and its neighbours aim at eliminating VL, but several knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of VL may hamper that effort. The prevalence of asymptomatic infections with Leishmania donovani and their role in transmission dynamics are not well understood. We report data from a sero-survey in Bihar.

METHODS

Demographic and immunological surveys were carried out in July and November 2006, respectively in 16 highly VL endemic foci in Muzaffarpur district in Bihar. Household and individual information was gathered and capillary blood samples were collected on filter papers. Direct agglutination test (DAT) was used to determine infected individuals (cut-off titre 1:1600). DAT results were tabulated against individual and household variables. A multivariate generalized estimating equation (GEE) model was used to study the prevalence of serologically positive individuals taking into account the clustering at household and cluster levels.

RESULTS

Of study subjects 18% were DAT positive, and this proportion increased with age. Women had a significantly lower prevalence than men >14 years old. Owning domestic animals (cows, buffaloes or goats) was associated with a higher risk of being DAT positive [OR 1.16 (95% CI 1.01-1.32)], but socio-economic status was not.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of leishmanial antibodies was high in these communities, but variable. Demographic factors (i.e. marriage) may explain the lower DAT positivity in women >14 years of age. Within these homogeneously poor communities, socio-economic status was not linked to L. donovani infection risk at the individual level, but ownership of domestic animals was.

Assessing and maximizing the acceptability of global positioning system device use for studying the role of human movement in dengue virus transmission in Iquitos, Peru

As use of global positioning system (GPS) technology to study disease transmission increases, it is important to assess possible barriers to its use from the perspective of potential study participants. Fifteen focus group discussions stratified by sex, age, and motherhood status were conducted in 2008 in Iquitos, Peru. All participants said they would accept using a GPS unit for study purposes for 2-4 weeks. Participants' main concerns included caring properly for the unit, whether the unit would audio/videotape them, health effects of prolonged use, responsibility for units, and confidentiality of information. A pilot study was then conducted in which 126 persons were asked to carry GPS units for 2-4 weeks; 98% provided consent. All persons used the units expressing minimal concerns, although 44% reported forgetting the device at least once. Our study is the first to highlight participant concerns related to use of GPS for long-term monitoring of individual behavior in a resource-limited setting.

Insecticide-treated nets can reduce malaria transmission by mosquitoes which feed outdoors

Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) represent a powerful means for controlling malaria in Africa because the mosquito vectors feed primarily indoors at night. The proportion of human exposure that occurs indoors, when people are asleep and can conveniently use ITNs, is therefore very high. Recent evidence suggests behavioral changes by malaria mosquito populations to avoid contact with ITNs by feeding outdoors in the early evening. We adapt an established mathematical model of mosquito behavior and malaria transmission to illustrate how ITNs can achieve communal suppression of malaria transmission exposure, even where mosquito evade them and personal protection is modest. We also review recent reports from Tanzania to show that conventional mosquito behavior measures can underestimate the potential of ITNs because they ignore the importance of human movements.

Usefulness of commercially available GPS data-loggers for tracking human movement and exposure to dengue virus

Background

Our understanding of the effects of human movement on dengue virus spread remains limited in part due to the lack of precise tools to monitor the time-dependent location of individuals. We determined the utility of a new, commercially available, GPS data-logger for long-term tracking of human movements in Iquitos, Peru. We conducted a series of evaluations focused on GPS device attributes key to reliable use and accuracy. GPS observations from two participants were later compared with semi-structured interview data to assess the usefulness of GPS technology to track individual mobility patterns.

Results

Positional point and line accuracy were 4.4 and 10.3 m, respectively. GPS wearing mode increased spatial point error by 6.9 m. Units were worn on a neck-strap by a carpenter and a moto-taxi driver for 14-16 days. The application of a clustering algorithm (I-cluster) to the raw GPS positional data allowed the identification of locations visited by each participant together with the frequency and duration of each visit. The carpenter moved less and spent more time in more fixed locations than the moto-taxi driver, who visited more locations for a shorter period of time. GPS and participants' interviews concordantly identified 6 common locations, whereas GPS alone identified 4 locations and participants alone identified 10 locations. Most (80%) of the locations identified by participants alone were places reported as visited for less than 30 minutes.

Conclusion

The present study demonstrates the feasibility of a novel, commercially available GPS data-logger for long-term tracking of humans and shows the potential of these units to quantify mobility patterns in relationship with dengue virus transmission risk in a tropical urban environment. Cost, battery life, size, programmability and ease of wear are unprecedented from previously tested units, proving the usefulness of GPS-dataloggers for linking movement of individuals and transmission risk of dengue virus and other infectious agents, particularly in resource-poor settings.

ProactiveVector control strategies and improved monitoring and evaluation practices for dengue prevention

Despite tremendous efforts by public health organizations in dengue-endemic countries, it has proven difficult to achieve effective and sustainable control of the primary dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti (L.) and to effectively disrupt dengue outbreaks. This problem has multiple root causes, including uncontrolled urbanization, increased global spread of dengue viruses, and vector and dengue control programs not being provided adequate resources. In this forum article, we give an overview of the basic elements of a vector and dengue control program and describe a continuous improvement cyclical model to systematically and incrementally improve control program performance by regular efforts to identify ineffective methods and inferior technology, and then replacing them with better performing alternatives. The first step includes assessments of the overall resource allocation among vector/dengue control program activities, the efficacy of currently used vector control methods, and the appropriateness of technology used to support the program. We expect this will reveal that 1) some currently used vector control methods are not effective, 2) resource allocations often are skewed toward reactive vector control measures, and 3) proactive approaches commonly are underfunded and therefore poorly executed. Next steps are to conceptualize desired changes to vector control methods or technologies used and then to operationally determine in pilot studies whether these changes are likely to improve control program performance. This should be followed by a shift in resource allocation to replace ineffective methods and inferior technology with more effective and operationally tested alternatives. The cyclical and self-improving nature of the continuous improvement model will produce locally appropriate management strategies that continually are adapted to counter changes in vector population or dengue virus transmission dynamics. We discuss promising proactive vector control approaches and the continued need for the vector and dengue control community to incorporate emerging technologies and to partner with academia, business and the community-at-large to identify new solutions that reduce dengue.

Transmission dynamics and underreporting of Kala-azar in the Indian state of Bihar

"Kala-azar" (or Indian Visceral Leishmaniasis) is a vector-borne infectious disease affecting communities in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Bihar, a state in India, has one of the highest prevalence and mortality reported levels of Kala-azar. Yet, the magnitude of the problem is difficult to assess because most cases are handled by private health providers who are not required to and do not report them to the Ministry of Health. The impact of underreporting using district-level reported incidence data from the state of Bihar is the main goal of this manuscript. We derive expressions for, and compute estimates of Kala-azar's reproduction numbers, an indirect measure of disease prevalence, and levels of underreporting for the 21 most affected districts of Bihar. The average reproduction number (number of secondary cases generated per infective) estimates for Bihar range from 1.3 (2003) to 2.1 (2005) with some districts' estimates with mean values lower than one. Model estimates (using available data and a model-derived expression) show that the proportion of underreported cases declined from an average of 88% in 2003 to 73% in 2005. However, eight districts in 2003 and five districts in 2005 had more than 90% levels of underreporting. Model estimates are used to generate underreporting adjusted incidence rates. The analysis finds that reported data misidentify four of the eight (2003) and three of the nine (2005) districts classified as high-risk. In fact, seven (2003) and five (2005) of the most affected Kala-azar districts had been classified as low-risk when only reported incidence data were used.