A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

When is liver biopsy needed in the diagnosis of primary biliary cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver biopsy has been largely replaced by less invasive measurements applied to mathematical models in defining the prognosis of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). The need for liver biopsy in the diagnosis of patients with positive antimitochondrial antibodies (AMAs) in the setting of biochemical cholestasis remains uncertain. This study was undertaken to determine which variables indicate the need for liver biopsy in patients with positive AMA and suspected PBC.

METHODS

A total of 3198 patients that were tested for AMA in 1999 and 2000 were identified. Of these, 198 (6.2%) were AMA positive. Forty-two patients were excluded because of unavailable laboratory data or liver biopsy specimens. Data on the remaining 156 patients were analyzed to determine which variables among patients with positive AMA with and without a histopathologic diagnosis of PBC indicate the need for liver biopsy.

RESULTS

In 131 of 156 (84.6%) patients, a diagnosis of PBC was established by liver biopsy. The histological diagnosis of PBC was associated with a cholestatic biochemical profile (alkaline phosphatase [AP] >1.5 times the upper limits of normal [ULN] and aspartate aminotransferase [AST] <5 times ULN) in 112 of 131 (85.5%) patients. The combination of AP >1.5 times the ULN and AST <5 times the ULN yielded a 98.2% positive predictive value of PBC diagnosis on liver biopsy in AMA-positive subjects. These results were corroborated by cross-validation in an independent set of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with positive AMA, a cholestatic biochemical profile (AP >1.5 times the ULN), and absence of markedly elevated AST (<5 times the ULN), liver biopsy is rarely required to establish the diagnosis of PBC. Liver biopsy would be beneficial to establish the diagnosis of PBC in only a minority of AMA-positive patients with AP <1.5 times the ULN or AST >5 times the ULN.

Perioperative perfusion strategies for optimal fluid management in liver transplant recipients with renal insufficiency

Renal Insufficiency (RI) is a common finding in patients suffering from end-stage liver disease. The causes of RI are reported to be multifactorial and the degree of RI can range from early functional impairment to hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). The process of liver transplantation is highly likely to exacerbate the symptoms and sequelae of renal dysfunction. RI continues to be a cause of morbidity and mortality in the intraoperative and postoperative periods. With careful evaluation and monitoring in addition to appropriate intervention, a uniformly good outcome may be possible even for these most complicated patients. This paper will describe successful perfusion interventions carried out during the three phases of liver transplantation: pre-anhepatic, anhepatic and reperfusion at our institution for a three-year period. Intraoperative plasmapheresis (n = 3), continuous veno-venous hemofiltration (CVVH) (n = 7), intraoperative dialysis (n = 8), and intraoperative dialysis with fluid removal (n = 3) techniques will be presented for review.

A correlation between the pretransplantation MELD score and mortality in the first two years after liver transplantation

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is now the criteria for allocation in liver transplantation for patients with chronic disease. Although the score has been effective in the prediction of mortality in patients awaiting liver transplantation, its abilities to predict posttransplantation outcome need study. The aim of this study is to compare outcome in the first 2 years after liver transplantation according to the pretransplantation MELD score. The study includes 669 consecutive patients who underwent primary liver transplantation between December 1993 and October 1999 in a single transplant center. Patients who died of malignancy were excluded from the series. Pretransplantation MELD score was calculated using the United Network for Organ Sharing formula. Patients were stratified according to MELD score less than 15, 15 to 24, and 25 and higher. Posttransplantation survival at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months was significantly lower in the groups with a higher MELD score. The difference was significant for hepatitis C and noncholestatic liver diseases, but not cholestatic diseases. In patients with a MELD score between 15 and 24, survival was significantly greater with cholestatic diseases and lower in patients with hepatitis C. In our study, pretransplantation MELD score correlates with survival in the first 2 years after transplantation. There is a survival advantage for patients with cholestatic diseases compared with those with hepatitis C. These findings suggest the need to readjust MELD score-based allocation decisions to consider patient outcome.

Recent advances in liver transplantation

Advances in liver transplantation continue to evolve but are hampered by continued increasing shortages in donor organs. This has resulted in a high incidence of patients dying while on the United Network for Organ Sharing waiting list. Indeed, we continue to assess ways of expanding the donor pool by using marginal donors, living donor liver transplantation, split liver transplantation, domino transplantation, and hepatic support systems to prolong survival long enough for the patient to undergo liver transplantation. Changes in the liver allocation policy to reduce the number of people dying while waiting for an organ are discussed. Implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease allocation system should help alleviate the problem of increasing deaths of patients while on the waiting list. Recurrent disease, particularly recurrent hepatitis C, continues to be a major problem, and effective therapy is needed to prevent both progression of hepatitis C and recurrence in the graft and avoid retransplantation. The use of pegylated interferon in combination with ribavirin holds promise for improving the success in overcoming recurrent hepatitis C. Finally, advances in immunosuppression have reduced the incidence of acute cellular rejection and chronic rejection. However, these therapies have been fraught with metabolic complications that are now affecting quality of life and long-term survival. Tailoring immunosuppressive regimens to the individual patient is discussed.

Five-year survival predictive factors in patients with excessive alcohol intake and cirrhosis. Effect of alcoholic hepatitis, smoking and abstinence

AIM

To evaluate 5-year survival predictive factors in hospitalised patients with excessive alcohol intake and cirrhosis, including in a multivariate analysis the severity of the liver disease, gastrointestinal bleeding, concomitant viral B or C infection, smoking status, presence of alcoholic hepatitis at inclusion and abstinence from alcohol during follow-up.

METHODS

In a non-concurrent cohort study, 122 patients with excessive alcohol intake and cirrhosis were followed up at least five years or till death. Two patients were lost to follow-up.

RESULTS

The 5-year survival rates were 43% in the 122 patients and 66%, 50% and 25% in Child-Pugh class A, B and C patients, respectively. In multivariate analysis, age (P = 0.01), Child-Pugh score (P = 0.0001), gastrointestinal bleeding (P = 0.01), presence of HBs Ag and/or anti-HCV (P = 0.03), smoking (P = 0.01), absence of histologically proven alcoholic hepatitis (P = 0.05) and persistent alcohol intake (P = 0.002) were associated with significantly increased risk ratios of death.

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalised patients with excessive alcohol intake and cirrhosis: (1) age, liver failure, gastrointestinal bleeding, concomitant viral B or C infection and persistent alcohol intake are independent poor prognostic markers, (2) smoking may contribute to the aggravation of cirrhosis, and (3) alcoholic hepatitis, being a potentially reversible cause of liver failure, has a favourable prognostic significance.

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and allocation of donor livers

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A consensus has been reached that liver donor allocation should be based primarily on liver disease severity and that waiting time should not be a major determining factor. Our aim was to assess the capability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to correctly rank potential liver recipients according to their severity of liver disease and mortality risk on the OPTN liver waiting list.

METHODS

The MELD model predicts liver disease severity based on serum creatinine, serum total bilirubin, and INR and has been shown to be useful in predicting mortality in patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. In this study, we prospectively applied the MELD score to estimate 3-month mortality to 3437 adult liver transplant candidates with chronic liver disease who were added to the OPTN waiting list at 2A or 2B status between November, 1999, and December, 2001.

RESULTS

In this study cohort with chronic liver disease, 412 (12%) died during the 3-month follow-up period. Waiting list mortality increased directly in proportion to the listing MELD score. Patients having a MELD score <9 experienced a 1.9% mortality, whereas patients having a MELD score > or =40 had a mortality rate of 71.3%. Using the c-statistic with 3-month mortality as the end point, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the MELD score was 0.83 compared with 0.76 for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that the MELD score is able to accurately predict 3-month mortality among patients with chronic liver disease on the liver waiting list and can be applied for allocation of donor livers.

Longitudinal assessment of mortality risk among candidates for liver transplantation

Liver allocation policy recently was modified to use the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) for patients with chronic liver disease to stratify potential recipients according to risk for waitlist death. In this study, a retrospective cohort of 760 adult patients with chronic liver disease placed on the liver transplant waitlist between January 1995 and March 2001 and followed up for up to 74 months was studied to assess the ability of the MELD to predict mortality among waitlisted candidates and evaluate the prognostic importance of changes in MELD score over time. Serial MELD scores predicted waitlist mortality significantly better than baseline MELD scores or medical urgency status. Each unit of the 40-point MELD score was associated with a 22% increased risk for waitlist death (P <.001), whereas medical urgency status was not a significant independent predictor. For any given MELD score, the magnitude and direction of change in MELD score during the previous 30 days (DeltaMELD) was a significant independent mortality predictor. Patients with MELD score increases greater than 5 points over 30 days had a threefold greater waitlist mortality risk than those for whom MELD scores increased more gradually (P <.0001). We conclude that mortality risk on the liver transplant waitlist is predicted more accurately by serial MELD score determinations than by medical urgency status or single MELD measurements. DeltaMELD score over time reflects progression of liver disease and conveys important additional prognostic information that should be considered in the further evolution of national liver allocation policy.

Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplant: UK experience

BACKGROUND

Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (ALDLT) is being adopted widely in the USA and mainland Europe, fueled by the increasing waiting lists for cadaver organs. The present report describes the first UK experience with the procedure in patients from overseas who have the lowest priority for cadaver organ allocation.

METHODS

The 16 patients seen over the period November 1998 to March 2002 had end-stage cirrhosis from chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (13 cases), with single instances of cryptogenic cirrhosis, secondary biliary cirrhosis and alcoholic liver disease. Grafts were left lobe in the first two recipients and right lobe in the subsequent 14 recipients, donated by nine sons/daughters and seven brothers/sisters.

RESULTS

Twelve of the 16 recipients did well. The four recipients who died had recurrent sepsis; two of these died following hepatic arterial occlusion, and in three major surgical factors were present before transplantation. Serial computed tomography (CT) measurements in the survivors showed regeneration of the grafted lobe with final volumes reaching in each case the calculated standard liver volume for body size. In the donors, liver function tests had returned to normal by day 7-14, with rapid regeneration of the remaining lobe, although the final size attained that estimated before donation in only four donors.

CONCLUSIONS

ALDLT, although requiring considerable facilities and organization, can give good results for both recipient and donor. As with cadaver grafts, outcome in the recipient if the larger right lobe is used is dependent on surgical risk factors and the severity of clinical decompensation before transplantation. Measures to ensure the safety of the donors remain the main concern.

Extracorporeal liver support with molecular adsorbents recirculating system in patients with severe acute alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The mortality of patients with severe acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH) remains high, leading to interest in the use of extracorporeal liver support. The molecular adsorbents recirculating system (MARS) is a liver support device based upon a hollow fibre module in which the patient's blood is dialyzed across an albumin-impregnated membrane. The aim of this paper is to assess the safety, efficacy and feasibility of using MARS in patients with severe AH.

METHODS

Eight patients (all encephalopathic; hepatorenal syndrome: Type 1, five patients; Type 2, two patients) were treated with MARS. Clinical, biochemical and haemodynamic assessments were done.

RESULTS

Five patients were discharged from hospital, and four are alive at 3 months of follow-up, compared with an estimated survival of about 20%. There were significant improvement in serum bilirubin (P=0.008), creatinine (P=0.02), prothrombin time (P=0.04), and grade of encephalopathy (P=0.05). Sustained improvements in mean arterial pressure, systemic vascular resistance and cardiac output were observed. Thrombocytopaenia was the only MARS-related adverse event observed.

CONCLUSIONS

MARS resulted in improved liver biochemistry, cardiovascular haemodynamics, renal function and encephalopathy in patients with severe AH, with an apparent reduction in mortality. On this basis, a multi-centre, randomized clinical trial has been initiated.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting versus paracentesis plus albumin for refractory ascites in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has been shown to be more effective than repeated paracentesis plus albumin in the control of refractory ascites. However, its effect on survival and healthcare costs is still uncertain.

METHODS

Seventy patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites were randomly assigned to TIPS (35 patients) or repeated paracentesis plus intravenous albumin (35 patients). The primary endpoint was survival without liver transplantation. Secondary endpoints were complications of cirrhosis and costs.

RESULTS

Twenty patients treated with TIPS and 18 treated with paracentesis died during the study period, whereas 7 patients in each group underwent liver transplantation (mean follow-up 282 +/- 43 vs. 325 +/- 61 days, respectively). The probability of survival without liver transplantation was 41% at 1 year and 26% at 2 years in the TIPS group, as compared with 35% and 30% in the paracentesis group (P = 0.51). In a multivariate analysis, only baseline blood urea nitrogen levels and Child-Pugh score were independently associated with survival. Recurrence of ascites and development of hepatorenal syndrome were lower in the TIPS group compared with the paracentesis group, whereas the frequency of severe hepatic encephalopathy was greater in the TIPS group. The calculated costs were higher in the TIPS group than in the paracentesis group.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with refractory ascites, TIPS lowers the rate of ascites recurrence and the risk of developing hepatorenal syndrome. However, TIPS does not improve survival and is associated with an increased frequency of severe encephalopathy and higher costs compared with repeated paracentesis plus albumin.

Fatal spontaneous gallbladder variceal bleeding in a patient with alcoholic cirrhosis

Gallbladder varices are unusual ectopic varices that may develop in patients with portal hypertension, particularly in those with portal vein occlusion. In rare instances, these varices may cause hemobilia, life-threatening bleeding, or even rupture of the gallbladder. We report the first case of a 41-year-old man with alcoholic cirrhosis and patent portal vein who developed massive hemoperitoneum from spontaneous rupture of varices in the gallbladder fossa. The diagnosis of gallbladder varices eluded conventional imaging and was made only at autopsy. Gallbladder variceal hemorrhage is a rare, but potentially catastrophic complication of cirrhosis.

Percutaneous radiofrequency thermal ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: a safe and effective bridge to liver transplantation

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the United States. Although liver transplantation is an effective means of treating selected patients, pretransplantation tumor progression may preclude some patients from undergoing transplantation. The aim of this study is to determine the safety and efficacy of percutaneous radiofrequency thermal ablation (RFA) in 33 consecutive patients with nonresectable HCC and advanced cirrhosis. Mean subject age was 57.2 +/- 10.6 years, mean Child-Turcotte-Pugh score was 7.0 +/- 1.4, and mean maximal tumor diameter was 3.6 +/- 1.1 cm. Using contrast-enhanced computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, 22 patients (66%) had a complete radiological response at 3 months post-RFA, whereas 11 patients (33%) had an incomplete radiological response. During follow-up, 18 patients (54%) experienced tumor progression and 9 subjects underwent repeated ablation for either residual disease or tumor progression. The overall actuarial patient survival rate of the 33 patients was 58% at 2 years, whereas the transplantation-free patient survival rate was 34% at 2 years. Fifteen of 23 transplant candidates were successfully bridged to liver transplantation after a mean post-RFA follow-up of 7.9 +/- 6.7 months. The extent of tumor necrosis in the explant varied, but no subjects had evidence of tumor seeding on post-RFA imaging, at liver transplantation, or in the explant. The 3-year actuarial posttransplantation patient survival rate was 85%. Two patients have developed posttransplantation recurrence, and both had microscopic vascular invasion in their explants. In summary, our data show that RFA is a safe and effective treatment modality for patients with advanced cirrhosis and nonresectable HCC. Although the ability of RFA to prevent or delay tumor progression requires further prospective study, its favorable safety profile and promising efficacy make it an attractive treatment option for liver transplant candidates with nonresectable HCC.

Evaluation of a model to predict poor survival in patients undergoing elective TIPS procedures

PURPOSE

To validate a previously published model to predict the probability of patient death within 3 months after an elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. The model is implemented with use of a nomogram or a formula.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent an elective TIPS procedure between May 1, 1999, and May 1, 2001, were selected. Patients who underwent emergency TIPS creation and patients with serum creatinine levels greater than 3.0 mg/dL were excluded. A total of 72 patients met the inclusion criteria. The patients were divided into two groups: group A (ethanol-induced cirrhosis; n = 23) and group B (non-ethanol-induced cirrhosis; n = 49). The model was applied and the predicted probability of death was compared to actual patient survival. A high risk score (R > or = 1.8) is associated with a high risk of death within 3 months after TIPS creation. Survival curves were estimated with use of Kaplan-Meier product limit estimates and were compared with use of the log-rank test. The model's accuracy was evaluated with use of the c-statistic. P values lower than.05 indicated statistical significance.

RESULTS

The technical success rate was 98.7%. The 3-month survival rate for the whole group was 79.7%. The predicted mortality rate was higher than the observed mortality rate. The c-statistic was 0.65 for the formula and 0.66 for the nomogram. Patients with a risk score of at least 1.8 had a 3-month survival rate of 54.6% and patients with a risk score lower than 1.8 had a 3-month survival rate of 84.9% (P =.037).

CONCLUSION

These results confirm that, after an elective TIPS procedure, patients with risk scores of at least 1.8 have a significantly lower 3-month survival rate than patients with risk scores lower than 1.8.

The 1-year and 3-month prognostic utility of the AST/ALT ratio and model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with viral liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

The AST/ALT ratio has shown good diagnostic accuracy in patients with chronic viral liver disease. However, its prognostic utility has never been tested. Recently, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been proposed as a simple and effective tool to predict survival in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aims of this study were to assess the 3-month and 1-yr prognostic ability of the AST/ALT ratio in a series of patients with virus-related liver cirrhosis, and to evaluate the relationship between the AST/ALT ratio and the MELD score and to compare their prognostic ability.

METHODS

The AST/ALT ratios and MELD scores of 99 patients with liver cirrhosis of viral etiology (73 patients with hepatitis C virus and 26 with hepatitis B virus) who had been followed-up for at least 1 yr were retrospectively calculated and correlated with the patients' 3-month and 1-yr prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine the AST/ALT ratio and the MELD score cut-offs with the best sensitivity (SS) and specificity (SP) in discriminating between patients who survived and those who died. Univariate survival curves were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method using the cut-offs identified by means of receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

AST/ALT ratios and MELD scores showed a significant correlation (r(s) = 0.503, p = 0.0001). In all, 8% and 30% of the patients had died after 3 months and 1 yr of follow-up, respectively. AST/ALT ratios and MELD scores were significantly higher among the patients who died during both 3-month and 1-yr follow-up. An AST/ALT ratio cut-off of 1.17 had 87% SS and 52% SP, whereas a MELD cut-off of 9 had 57% SS and 74% SP in discriminating between patients who survived and those who died after I yr. The combined assessment of the AST/ALT ratio and/or MELD score had 90% SS and 78% SP. Survival curves of the patients showed that both parameters clearly discriminated between patients who survived and those who died in the short term (AST/ALT ratio, p = 0.0094; MELD score, p = 0.0089) as well as in the long term (AST/ALT ratio, p < 0.0005; MELD score, p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with virus-related cirrhosis, the AST/ALT ratio has prognostic capability that is not significantly different from that of an established prognostic score such as MELD. Combined assessment of the two parameters increases the medium-term prognostic accuracy.

The pathogenesis of hepatitis C virus is influenced by cytomegalovirus

We investigated the effect of beta-herpesviruses on allograft failure and mortality, hepatitis C virus (HCV) replication, and liver histologic characteristics among 92 HCV-infected liver transplant recipients. Reactivation of cytomegalovirus (CMV) but not of human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) was independently associated with allograft failure and mortality (risk ratio, 3.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-8.39); allograft failure and mortality was observed in 48% of patients with CMV disease, 35% of patients with subclinical CMV infection, and 17% of patients without CMV infection (P=.0275). CMV reactivation was highly predictive of mortality (P<.001), regardless of whether it remained subclinical or evolved into CMV disease. Patients with CMV disease had a higher fibrosis stage (P=.05) and had a trend toward a higher hepatitis activity index (P=.10) and HCV load (P=.10) at 16 weeks after liver transplantation. The pathogenesis of HCV is influenced by its interaction with CMV but not with HHV-6.

An examination of factors predicting prioritization for liver transplantation

With the recent transition of the liver transplant allocation system to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, a major change is its reliance entirely on objective criteria. In previous reports, potential donor families and members of the transplant community have questioned the fairness of the subjective nature of previous systems. Therefore, we examined the United Network for Organ Sharing database to determine if the previous allocation system benefited a particular group in prioritization for transplant. We included adult patients with chronic liver disease listed for transplant in the year 2000. Patients who had ever been listed as status 2A or 2B were analyzed. A multivariable analysis examined the patient characteristics that predicted being uplisted to status 2A. Of the 9244 patients, 2376 (25.7%) had received a liver transplant as a status 2A or had been listed as status 2A. In the multivariate analysis, the strongest patient characteristics that predicted status 2A were listing in the western United States and shorter duration of registration. Other predictors include blood type O, college education, unemployment, and coverage with private insurance or a health maintenance organization/preferred provider organization. In addition, patients with Laennec's cirrhosis were less likely to be uplisted to status 2A. Age, gender, and race were not predictors of uplisting to status 2A. In conclusion, these data show the wide range of practice patterns with the use of status 2A, and these findings suggest that certain patient groups might have received preference in the previous liver transplant allocation system.

Influence of hydroxy ethyl starch infusion on serum bilirubin levels in cirrhotic patients treated with artificial liver support

Serum bilirubin levels are commonly used to assess extracorporeal detoxification by liver support systems. We tested the hypothesis that intravenous colloids administered before liver support treatment could confound bilirubin values. Eight cirrhotic patients received an infusion of a 6% hydroxy ethyl starch solution (10 ml/kg, 30 minutes) before detoxification using a liver support system (FPSA). Bilirubin was measured before and 1 hour after infusion, and after FPSA treatment (7 hours). Infusion of hydroxy ethyl starch was associated with a drop in bilirubin values (mean, 18%, range, 1-44%, p=0.03 versus baseline values). Bilirubin levels were further reduced during FPSA treatment (mean, 27%, range, 22-34%; p=0.02 versus pretreatment values). In conclusion, hydroxy ethyl starch solution may decrease bilirubin levels in hyperbilirubinemic cirrhotic patients receiving extracorporeal detoxification. The role of potentially confounding factors in liver support studies is discussed further.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: analysis of survival according to the intention-to-treat principle and dropout from the waiting list

A major obstacle for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) as treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is tumor growth resulting in dropout from the waiting list for OLT. There is a paucity of data on survival according to intention-to-treat analysis and the rate of dropout from the waiting list for OLT among patients with HCC. To further evaluate these issues, we analyzed the outcome of 46 consecutive patients with HCC listed for OLT between January 1998 and January 2001. Exclusion criteria for OLT were tumor size greater than 5 cm for one to three lesions or four lesions or greater of any size. Twenty-one patients underwent OLT. There were 11 dropouts because of tumor progression and six deaths, including three deaths after dropout. Kaplan-Meier 1- and 2-year intention-to-treat survival rates were 91.7% and 72.6%, respectively. Monthly dropout rates were 0% from 0 to 3 months, 1.5% from 3 to 6 months, 1.0% from 6 to 9 months, 4.9% from 9 to 12 months, and 5.6% from 12 to 15 months. One dropout occurred beyond 15 months among 4 patients remaining at risk. Cumulative probabilities for dropout at 6, 12, and 24 months were 7.3%, 25.3%, and 43.6%, respectively. Predictors for dropout included two or three tumor nodules or a solitary lesion greater than 3 cm at initial presentation and previous hepatic resection. Our results support recent changes in the scheme of organ allocation aimed at reducing the dropout rate and improving outcome for patients with HCC awaiting OLT.

Pretransplant model to predict posttransplant survival in liver transplant patients

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic model that determines patient survival outcomes after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) using readily available pretransplant variables.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The current liver organ allocation system strongly favors organ distribution to critically ill recipients who exhibit poor survival outcomes following OLT. A severely limited organ resource, increasing waiting list deaths, and rising numbers of critically ill recipients mandate an organ allocation system that balances disease severity with survival outcomes. Such goals can be realized only through the development of prognostic models that predict survival following OLT.

METHODS

Variables that may affect patient survival following OLT were analyzed in hepatitis C (HCV) recipients at the authors' center, since HCV is the most common indication for OLT. The resulting patient survival model was examined and refined in HCV and non-HCV patients in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. Kaplan-Meier methods, univariate comparisons, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression were employed for analyses.

RESULTS

Variables identified by multivariate analysis as independent predictors for patient survival following primary transplantation of adult HCV recipients in the last 10 years at the authors' center were entered into a prognostic survival model to predict patient survival. Accordingly, mortality was predicted by 0.0293 (recipient age) + 1.085 (log10 recipient creatinine) + 0.289 (donor female gender) + 0.675 urgent UNOS - 1.612 (log10 recipient creatinine times urgent UNOS). The above variables, in addition to donor age, total bilirubin, prothrombin time (PT), retransplantation, and warm and cold ischemia times, were applied to the UNOS database. Of the 46,942 patients transplanted over the last 10 years, 25,772 patients had complete data sets. An eight-factor model that accurately predicted survival was derived. Accordingly, the mortality index posttransplantation = 0.0084 donor age + 0.019 recipient age + 0.816 log creatinine + 0.0044 warm ischemia (in minutes) + 0.659 (if second transplant) + 0.10 log bilirubin + 0.0087 PT + 0.01 cold ischemia (in hours). Thus, this model is applicable to first or second liver transplants. Patient survival rates based on model-predicted risk scores for death and observed posttransplant survival rates were similar. Additionally, the model accurately predicted survival outcomes for HCV and non-HCV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Posttransplant patient survival can be accurately predicted based on eight straightforward factors. The balanced application of a model for liver transplant survival estimate, in addition to disease severity, as estimated by the model for end-stage liver disease, would markedly improve survival outcomes and maximize patients' benefits following OLT.

Living donor liver transplantation in patients with portal vein thrombosis: a survey and review of technical issues

BACKGROUND

Unlike cadaveric liver transplantation, current attitudes in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) quote increased risk factors in the potential recipient such as retransplantation, multiple previous surgeries, or preexisting recipient portal vein thrombosis (PVT) as absolute or relative contraindications to this procedure.

METHODS

An international survey was performed to examine the attitude of transplant teams relative to LDLT in the setting of preexisting PVT in the potential recipient. A questionnaire was sent to a total of 80 transplant centers performing LDLT in the United States, Europe, Canada, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia.

RESULTS

A response was obtained from 47 transplant centers (59% response rate). This included 2146 LDLT procedures that combined both left and right lobe allografts. The incidence of acute preexisting recipient PVT was 18 (0.8%) and of chronic PVT was 26 (1.2%). Thrombectomy was performed in 28 (64%), a jump graft in 13 (29.5%), and a combination of both thrombectomy and a jump graft in 2 (4.5%) cases. With reference to the presence of preexisting PVT in the potential recipient, 5 centers considered this to be an absolute contraindication (10.7%), 24 centers as a relative contraindication (51%), and 18 as not being a contraindication (38.3%) to LDLT.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall response to our questionnaire reflected a cautious attitude within the transplant community. Ethical criteria pertaining to risk undertaken by a healthy donor in situations of higher recipient morbidity risk does seem to impact on the decision to undertake LDLT in this group of patients.

Role of liver transplantation in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

The treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are liver resection, liver transplantation, or local ablation (e.g., percutaneous ethanol injection, cryosurgery, radio-frequency ablation, and chemoembolization). Most patients are not eligible for curative resection because of the location of the tumor or the severity of liver disease. For many of these patients, liver transplantation remains the best curative option. Because of the shortage of donor organs, much of the recent effort has been aimed at patient selection. In this review, the authors address outcomes after liver transplantation for HCC, the role of selection criteria as a predictor of mortality and recurrence, and the emerging role of living donor liver transplantation and chemoembolization.

Is MELD really the definitive score for liver allocation?

The best system for organ allocation is still a controversial issue. The aim of this study was to study the accuracy of four different scores to predict mortality on the waiting list and, thus, their usefulness to determine organ allocation. We retrospectively compared two groups of patients, those who died on waiting list (group D) and those who successfully underwent transplantation (group T) during the same time period. Four scores, at the time of entering the waiting list and just before liver transplantation or death, were evaluated. The evaluated scores were as follows: (1) the Child-Pugh classification; (2) the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score; (3) the Freeman scale; and (4) the Guardiola et al index. The mortality rate on waiting list was 15.9%. All studied scores, except Freeman scale, were higher in group D at the time of entrance on waiting list (MELD, 17.4 +/- 8 v 12.3 +/- 6, P = .02; Child, 9.9 +/- 2 v 7.7 +/- 2, P = .002; Freeman, 9.7 +/- 4 v 7.3 +/- 3.9, P = .09; Guardiola, 2.6 +/- 0.9 v 1.7 +/- 0.7, P = .001). C-statistics of all scores were similar and in all cases lower than 0.8 (MELD, 0.75; Child, 0.78; Freeman, 0.65; Guardiola, 0.79). None of the studied scores have an excellent accuracy to predict prognosis of patients on waiting list, mainly in case of populations with high proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma. Although the MELD score is rapidly available, standardized, and objective, it does not reflect the severity of patients with cancer or metabolic disorders.

Pretransplant model to predict posttransplant survival in liver transplant patients

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic model that determines patient survival outcomes after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) using readily available pretransplant variables.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The current liver organ allocation system strongly favors organ distribution to critically ill recipients who exhibit poor survival outcomes following OLT. A severely limited organ resource, increasing waiting list deaths, and rising numbers of critically ill recipients mandate an organ allocation system that balances disease severity with survival outcomes. Such goals can be realized only through the development of prognostic models that predict survival following OLT.

METHODS

Variables that may affect patient survival following OLT were analyzed in hepatitis C (HCV) recipients at the authors' center, since HCV is the most common indication for OLT. The resulting patient survival model was examined and refined in HCV and non-HCV patients in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. Kaplan-Meier methods, univariate comparisons, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression were employed for analyses.

RESULTS

Variables identified by multivariate analysis as independent predictors for patient survival following primary transplantation of adult HCV recipients in the last 10 years at the authors' center were entered into a prognostic survival model to predict patient survival. Accordingly, mortality was predicted by 0.0293 (recipient age) + 1.085 (log10 recipient creatinine) + 0.289 (donor female gender) + 0.675 urgent UNOS - 1.612 (log10 recipient creatinine times urgent UNOS). The above variables, in addition to donor age, total bilirubin, prothrombin time (PT), retransplantation, and warm and cold ischemia times, were applied to the UNOS database. Of the 46,942 patients transplanted over the last 10 years, 25,772 patients had complete data sets. An eight-factor model that accurately predicted survival was derived. Accordingly, the mortality index posttransplantation = 0.0084 donor age + 0.019 recipient age + 0.816 log creatinine + 0.0044 warm ischemia (in minutes) + 0.659 (if second transplant) + 0.10 log bilirubin + 0.0087 PT + 0.01 cold ischemia (in hours). Thus, this model is applicable to first or second liver transplants. Patient survival rates based on model-predicted risk scores for death and observed posttransplant survival rates were similar. Additionally, the model accurately predicted survival outcomes for HCV and non-HCV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Posttransplant patient survival can be accurately predicted based on eight straightforward factors. The balanced application of a model for liver transplant survival estimate, in addition to disease severity, as estimated by the model for end-stage liver disease, would markedly improve survival outcomes and maximize patients' benefits following OLT.

External validation of a prognostic model for predicting survival of cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites

OBJECTIVE

Cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites (RA) have a poor prognosis, although individual survival varies greatly. A model that could predict survival for patients with RA would be helpful in planning treatment. Moreover, in cases of potential liver transplantation, a model of these characteristics would provide the bases for establishing priorities of organ allocation and the selection of patients for a living donor graft. Recently, we developed a model to predict survival of patients with RA. The aim of this study was to establish its generalizability for predicting the survival of patients with RA.

METHODS

The model was validated by assessing its performance in an external cohort of patients with RA included in a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial that compared large-volume paracentesis and peritoneovenous shunt. The values for actual and model-predicted survival of three risk groups of patients, established according to the model, were compared graphically and by means of the one-sample log-rank test.

RESULTS

The model provided a very good fit to the survival data of the three risk groups in the validation cohort. We also found good agreement between the survival predicted from the model and the observed survival when patients treated with peritoneovenous shunt and with paracentesis were considered separately.

CONCLUSION

Our survival model can be used to predict the survival of patients with RA and may be a useful tool in clinical decision making, especially in deciding priority for liver transplantation.

The new liver allocation system: moving toward evidence-based transplantation policy

In 1999, the Institute of Medicine suggested that instituting a continuous disease severity score that de-emphasizes waiting time could improve the allocation of cadaveric livers for transplantation. This report describes the development and initial implementation of this new plan. The goal was to develop a continuous disease severity scale that uses objective, readily available variables to predict mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease and reduce the emphasis on waiting time. Mechanisms were also developed for inclusion of good transplant candidates who do not have high risk of death but for whom transplantation may be urgent. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) scores were selected as the basis for the new allocation policy because of their high degree of accuracy for predicting death in patients having a variety of liver disease etiologies and across a broad spectrum of liver disease severity. Except for the most urgent patients, all patients will be ranked continuously under the new policy by their MELD/PELD score. Waiting time is used only to prioritize patients with identical MELD/PELD scores. Patients who are not well served by the MELD/PELD scores can be prioritized through a regionalized peer review system. This new liver allocation plan is based on more objective, verifiable measures of disease severity with minimal emphasis on waiting time. Application of such risk models provides an evidenced-based approach on which to base further refinements and improve the model.

Determinants of early mortality in patients with decompensated chronic hepatitis B treated with antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic hepatitis B is a leading cause of death worldwide. To identify patients who might require urgent liver transplantation despite antiviral therapy, we investigated the determinants of early mortality in a large cohort of patients with decompensated chronic hepatitis B treated with lamivudine.

METHODS

One hundred fifty-four North American patients with decompensated chronic hepatitis B received lamivudine for a median of 16 months. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression modeling was used to develop a model of 6-month mortality.

RESULTS

A biphasic survival pattern was observed, with most deaths occurring within the first 6 months of treatment (25 of 32, 78%) because of complications of liver failure. The estimated actuarial 3-year survival of patients who survived at least 6 months was 88% on continued treatment. In multivariate modeling, elevated pretreatment serum bilirubin and creatinine levels as well as the presence of detectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA (by the bDNA assay) pretreatment were significantly associated with 6-month mortality. An equation approximating the probability of early mortality was developed from these variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate a distinct alteration in the slope of the survival curve after 6 months of lamivudine treatment for decompensated chronic hepatitis B. An equation consisting of 3 widely available pretreatment laboratory parameters was developed that can be used to predict the likelihood of early death in patients receiving lamivudine for decompensated chronic hepatitis B. These observations may help identify patients who can be stabilized with suppressive antiviral therapy vs. those who require urgent liver transplantation.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt and liver transplantation--how safe is the bridge?

Many of the current indications for use of transjugular intrahepatic stent-shunts are also indications for consideration of orthotopic liver transplantation. Tripathi et al. report a similar operative mortality and early graft function in a series of cases transplanted with a TIPSS compared to apparently matched controls, although a higher frequency of post-operative renal dysfunction.

Reduced use of intensive care after liver transplantation: patient attributes that determine early transfer to surgical wards

Part 1 of our report, presented in the same issue of the Journal, shows that immediate postoperative extubation and direct transfer to the surgical ward is safe and reduces reliance on the intensive care unit in most liver transplant recipients. However, there is no method to preoperatively predict which patients will need ventilatory support after surgery. To address this issue, we examined the relationship between perioperative patient attributes and extubation outcome in patients entered into our immediate postoperative extubation study from 1996 to 1998. Variables chosen stemmed from considerations in the literature. We examined the influence of 13 preoperative and 6 intraoperative factors on extubation outcome. Preoperative attributes included sex, race, diagnosis, United Network for Organ Sharing status, Child-Pugh score, presence of a portosystemic shunt, ascites, encephalopathy, coagulation, age, body mass index (BMI), creatinine level, and year of surgery. Intraoperative factors were type of surgery, surgeon, anesthesiologist, number of red blood cells administered, length of surgery, and surgical start time. Female sex (P =.02), BMI of 32 or greater (P =.015), portosystemic shunt (P =.022), and encephalopathy (P =.041) were associated with no attempt by the physician to extubate, whereas encephalopathy (P =.01) and BMI of 34 or greater (P =.002) were associated with failure to meet criteria for postoperative extubation (described in part 1 of this study). We conclude there are limited factors that predict an increased risk for postoperative respiratory failure in liver transplant recipients. Our results indicate that physicians are conservative in their approach to extubation immediately after surgery, and sole reliance on physician judgment to determine suitability for postoperative extubation leads to unnecessary use of postoperative cardiopulmonary support.

Racial differences in effectiveness of alpha-fetoprotein for diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis

alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) is frequently used as a diagnostic marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Most available data concerning AFP come from studies of patients with chronic hepatitis B or other chronic liver diseases of mixed etiologies. Limited data concerning the diagnostic value of AFP for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC have to date come only from Asian and European studies, and results are conflicting. There may be significant differences in AFP levels depending on racial backgrounds and etiologies of primary liver disease. We conducted a multicenter, retrospective, case-control study of 163 HCC patients with HCV infection and 149 control patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. The positive likelihood ratios for AFP at 0 to 20, 21 to 50, 51 to 100, and 101 to 200 ng/mL were 0.46, 1.31, 1.15, and 6.90, respectively. No controls had AFP greater than 200 ng/mL. The sensitivity of AFP for the diagnosis of HCC in African Americans with HCV infection was lower than that of patients of all other ethnic groups combined (57.1% vs. 81.6% for AFP > 10 ng/mL, P =.02, and 42.9% vs. 66.0% for AFP > 20 ng/mL, P =.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.81 for non-African Americans but only 0.56 for African Americans. In conclusion, AFP greater than 200 ng/mL can be used to confirm HCC in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and a hepatic mass. However, AFP is insensitive for the diagnosis of HCC in African Americans.

Development of a pediatric end-stage liver disease score to predict poor outcome in children awaiting liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

A pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) score for children with chronic liver disease using easily obtainable, objective, verifiable parameters, would be useful to prioritize children awaiting liver transplantation.

METHODS

Data from the Studies of Pediatric Liver Transplantation (SPLIT), a consortium of 29 U.S. and Canadian centers, were used to develop the PELD score. Two pretransplantation endpoints were evaluated: (1) death, n=884; and (2) death or moving to the intensive care unit (ICU), n=779. The analyses were restricted to children with chronic liver disease who were listed for a first transplant. Preliminary analyses of 17 possible factors yielded 6 parameters of interest: age <1 year, total bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), albumin, growth failure (height or weight Z score <-2), and calculated glomerular filtration rate. In a univariate Cox regression analysis, age, bilirubin, INR, and albumin were significant (P<0.01) predictors of both endpoints; glomerular filtration rate was not significant for either endpoint; and growth failure was significant for death/ICU but not death alone. In the multivariate analyses, age, bilirubin, and INR were significant for the death endpoint; and bilirubin, INR, growth failure, and albumin were significant for the death/ICU endpoint. From these results, three PELD models were evaluated to predict both outcomes at 3 and 6 months: PELD 1 (age, bilirubin, INR); PELD 2 (bilirubin, INR, albumin, growth failure); and PELD 3 (bilirubin, INR, albumin, growth failure, and age). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) was used to compare models. For PELD 3, the most inclusive model, the AUC ROC at 3 months was 0.92 for death and 0.82 for "death-moved to ICU." A comparison of the AUC ROCs for the other models and for the model of end-stage liver disease ([MELD], the adult end-stage liver disease severity score model), none of which performed better than PELD 3, are presented.

CONCLUSION

A model using five objective parameters can accurately predict death or death-moved to ICU in children awaiting liver transplantation.

Chronic hepatitis B: current and future treatment options

Hepatitis B, a major viral infection that can lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, is the ninth most common cause of death worldwide. Prevention of hepatitis B virus transmission is key to reducing the spread of this serious condition. Management of chronic hepatitis B requires significant knowledge of approved pharmacotherapeutic agents and their limitations. Today, agents approved by the Food and Drug Administration for this infection are interferon-alpha-2b and lamivudine. Newer agents are being developed and hold promise: adefovir, famciclovir, ganciclovir, lobucavir, entecavir, emtricitabine, L-deoxythymidine, clevudine, a therapeutic vaccine, and thymosin alpha-1. Therapeutic options for managing hepatitis infection after liver transplantation are also evolving. These include hepatitis B immunoglobulin and nucleoside analogues.

Cancer antigen 125 in patients with chronic liver disease

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between elevated levels of serum cancer antigen (CA) 125 and liver disease and to explore the possibility that CA 125 is produced by the peritoneum as a nonspecific response to the presence of fluid in the peritoneal cavity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between June and October 1992, CA 125 levels were measured in serum stored from 50 consecutive patients with cirrhotic ascites, 20 patients with cirrhosis but without ascites, and 12 patients with acute viral hepatitis without ascites. Serum CA 125 was also measured in 4 patients with chronic renal failure before and after initiation of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis.

RESULTS

Levels of CA 125 were elevated in patients with all forms of liver disease, especially in those with cirrhotic ascites irrespective of the etiology of cirrhosis or the presence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or hepatocellular carcinoma. Levels of CA 125 did not change significantly 1 month after initiation of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis.

CONCLUSION

Cancer antigen 125 is elevated in patients with acute and chronic liver disease, especially in those with cirrhotic ascites. This elevation in CA 125 is not because of a nonspecific response of the peritoneum to fluid in the peritoneal cavity. Awareness of the association of elevated CA 125 in patients with cirrhotic ascites can prevent unnecessary surgical intervention.

Cholestatic syndromes

Further insights into the molecular regulation of bile acid transport and metabolism have provided the basis for a better understanding of the pathogenesis of cholestatic liver diseases. Novel insights into the mechanisms of action of ursodeoxycholic acid should advance our understanding of the treatment of cholestatic liver diseases. Mutations of transporter genes can cause hereditary cholestatic syndromes in both infants and adults as well as cholesterol gallstone disease. Important studies have been published on the pathogenesis, clinical features, and treatment of primary biliary cirrhosis, drug-induced cholestasis, and cholestasis of pregnancy.

Survival and prognostic indicators in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis after onset of hepatic decompensation

GOALS

To determine the 2-year survival and prognostic indicators of hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis after the onset of hepatic decompensation.

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with cirrhosis and resultant hepatic decompensation have reduced survival. However, the natural history of these patients has not been well characterized in previous studies. Better understanding of survival and prognostic indicators is essential in management of these patients, especially in determining who should be candidates for orthotopic liver transplantation.

STUDY

This is a retrospective longitudinal study of 96 patients with CHB-related cirrhosis after the onset of hepatic decompensation. The overall survival was ascertained, and clinical and laboratory variables were analyzed. Significant prognostic indicators for survival at 2 years were determined using univariate and multivariate analyses with Cox regression model.

RESULTS

The overall survival was 80% at 2 years after onset of decompensation. With univariate and multivariate analyses, hepatic encephalopathy and hypoalbuminemia less than 2.8 g/dL were significant prognostic indicators of poor survival probability. The hazard ratios were 5.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.67-16.3) and 8.57 (95% confidence interval, 1.94-37.8), respectively. Patients with hypoalbuminemia less than 2.8 g/dL had a 2-year survival of only 62%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that of CHB patients who developed the first episode of hepatic decompensation, those with hepatic encephalopathy or significant hypoalbuminemia or both have worse prognoses. They should be considered potential candidates for liver transplantation.

Effect of lamivudine treatment on survival of 309 North American patients awaiting liver transplantation for chronic hepatitis B

The primary aim of this study is to determine whether treatment with lamivudine improved pre-liver transplantation (pre-LT) and LT-free survival of patients awaiting LT for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis. Data from 162 lamivudine-treated and 147 untreated transplant candidates managed at 20 North American transplant centers between 1996 and 1998 were collected and compared. Lamivudine-treated patients were more likely to be men, hepatitis B e antigen positive, HBV DNA positive, and have lower serum albumin levels at listing (P <.05). Actuarial pre-LT and LT-free survival were similar in lamivudine-treated and untreated patients. Using Cox regression analysis, the only significant predictor of pre-LT patient survival was the modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh (mCTP) score, whereas significant predictors of LT-free survival included ethnic background, lamivudine treatment, indication for LT, baseline serum alanine aminotransferase level, and baseline mCTP score. Lamivudine had no apparent effect on liver disease severity in patients undergoing LT, but appeared to improve disease severity in patients still awaiting LT. Breakthrough infection was noted in 11% of lamivudine-treated patients. We conclude that lamivudine therapy is not associated with improved pre-LT or LT-free survival in LT candidates with chronic hepatitis B. However, a subset of patients with less advanced liver failure may derive clinical benefit from lamivudine therapy, thus delaying the need for LT. In the absence of prospective, randomized, controlled trials of lamivudine in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, careful selection of patients and optimal timing of treatment are needed to balance the risk versus benefit of lamivudine therapy in LT candidates.

Predicting the probability of progression-free survival in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma

Allocation of cadaveric livers to patients based on such objective medical urgency data as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score may not benefit patients with small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). To ensure that these patients have a fair opportunity of receiving a cadaveric organ, the risk for death caused by HCC and tumor progression beyond 5 cm should be considered. Using a Markov model, two hypothetical cohorts of patients with small hepatomas were assumed to have either (1) Gompertzian tumor growth, in which initial exponential growth decreases as tumor size increases; or (2) rapid exponential growth. The model tracked the number of patients who either died or had tumor progression beyond 5 cm. These results were used to back-calculate an equivalent MELD score for patients with small HCCs. All probabilities in the model were varied simultaneously using a Monte Carlo simulation. The Gompertzian growth model predicted that patients with a 1- and 4-cm tumor have 1-year progression-free survival rates of 70% (HCC-specific MELD score 6) and 66% (HCC-specific MELD score 8), respectively. When assuming rapid exponential growth, patients with a 1- and 4-cm tumor have progression-free survival rates of 69% (HCC-specific MELD score 6) and 12% (HCC-specific MELD score 24), respectively. Our model predicted that the risk for death caused by HCC or tumor progression beyond 5 cm should increase with larger initial tumor size in patients with small hepatomas. To ensure that these patients have a fair opportunity to receive a cadaveric organ, HCC-specific scores predicted by our model could be added to MELD scores of patients with HCC.

Treatment of alcoholic hepatitis

Alcoholic hepatitis is a common disease with an overall 1-year mortality of 20%. Although the classical treatment for alcoholic hepatitis is abstinence, in some individuals abstinence alone is inadequate to promote survival and recovery. This is particularly true of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis, who are identified by jaundice, coagulopathy and neutrophilia. Within the last two decades, several agents have been examined as treatments for alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis. They have targeted several key processes in the pathophysiology of alcoholic liver disease, including hypermetabolism, inflammation, cytokine dysregulation and oxidant stress. The compounds that offer the greatest survival benefit to patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis are corticosteroids. Several groups have reported excellent results with corticosteroids, but positive results are not uniform, and there remains some controversy over their efficacy. Even if corticosteroids are beneficial for alcoholic hepatitis, they are not recommended for all patients at risk. Consequently, other agents are being tested that have broader applicability to individuals with contraindications to steroids. In this regard, pentoxifylline shows some promise, as does enteral feeding with medium chain triglycerides. Independent efforts are also being directed toward treatment of chronic alcoholic liver disease and alcoholic cirrhosis. Anti-oxidants have received the greatest attention; drugs such as S-adenosyl-methionine may be of benefit. This and others are under active study.

13C-aminopyrine breath test to evaluate severity of disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection

BACKGROUND

There are few data on the use of the 13C-aminopyrine breath test to evaluate the severity of disease in patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic liver disease, although these patients represent one of the most important problems in clinical hepatology.

AIMS

To compare 13C-aminopyrine breath test results of patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic hepatitis and Child-Pugh class A cirrhosis with those of normal subjects, and to evaluate different methods of expressing 13C-aminopyrine breath test results.

METHODS

Twenty-four patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic hepatitis and 17 patients with Child-Pugh class A cirrhosis underwent 13C-aminopyrine breath test. Breath samples were collected every 30 min up to 2 h after 13C-aminopyrine administration. 13C-Aminopyrine breath test results were expressed as a percentage of the administered dose of 13C recovered per hour (% dose/h) and the cumulative percentage of administered dose of 13C recovered over time (% dose cum). Nineteen healthy subjects served as controls. Patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic hepatitis were divided into subgroups on the basis of histological staging and grading.

RESULTS

The 13C-aminopyrine breath test result (% dose/h) at 30 min was significantly different among the three subgroups of subjects (normal subjects, 11.5 +/- 3.5; chronic hepatitis patients, 8.1 +/- 4.1; cirrhosis patients, 5.0 +/- 3.1; P < 0.0005). Moreover, the differences between chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis patients were statistically significant (P < 0.03). The fibrosis score showed a significant inverse correlation with the 13C-aminopyrine breath test result (% dose/h) at 30 min (rs=- 0.409, P=0.05). The 13C-aminopyrine breath test result (% dose/h) at 30 min also allowed normal subjects and chronic hepatitis patients with low (< or = 2) or high (> 2) fibrosis scores to be distinguished. The 13C-aminopyrine breath test results (% dose cum) at 30, 60 and 90 min allowed discrimination between normal subjects and chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis patients. The 13C-aminopyrine breath test result (% dose cum) was also able to distinguish between normal subjects and chronic hepatitis patients with high but not low fibrosis scores. Both 13C-aminopyrine breath test results (% dose/h and % dose cum) at 120 min allowed the differentiation between normal subjects and chronic hepatitis patients with high (> or = 6) necro-inflammatory activity.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic liver disease, the 13C-aminopyrine breath test proved to be safe and easy to perform, and was able to evaluate different degrees of liver function impairment which were partly correlated to clinical and histological evaluation. In future studies, 13C-aminopyrine breath test results should be expressed in a standardized fashion to permit comparison.

Right-liver living donor transplantation for decompensated end-stage liver disease

Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for patients with decompensated end-stage liver disease (DELD) is controversial. Nevertheless, these patients are most in need of a timely liver transplant. We present the results of 7 patients who underwent transplantation with this procedure and discuss the rationale for its possible broader application. Seven of 51 patients who underwent right LDLT (segments 5 to 8) between August 1998 and April 2001 had DELD, defined as Child-Pugh-Turcotte score greater than 13 or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score greater than 30. All patients also were listed for cadaveric liver transplantation. Mean age of the 7 transplant recipients was 54 years (range, 44 to 63 years). Three patients had ethyltoxic cirrhosis; 2 patients, hepatitis C; 1 patient, hepatitis B; and 1 patient, autoimmune hepatitis cirrhosis. The average intensive care unit stay was 23 days (range, 3 to 88 days), and average hospital stay was 77 days (range, 27 to 132 days). Three patients are alive 31, 21, and 17 months after LDLT. At a mean follow-up of 15.1 +/- 10 months, patient and graft survival rates are 43%. Four transplant recipients died day 30, 60, 117, and 180 after transplantation. Three of the seven donors (43%) experienced a complication. At present, all donors are well and have returned to their normal activities. No donors had regrets about the procedure, and all donors stated that they would donate again if presented with the same decision. In conclusion, with the lack of other therapeutic options, LDLT represents a timely and effective alternative to cadaveric liver transplantation. Better outcome is foreseeable with a decrease in posttransplantation complications and more experience in predicting survival of these critical patients.

MELD score is better than Child-Pugh score in predicting 3-month survival of patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are at risk of early death due to end-stage liver failure. The aim of this study was to compare model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores as predictors of survival after TIPS.

METHODS

We studied 140 cirrhotic patients treated with elective TIPS. Concordance (c)-statistic was used to assess the ability of MELD or Child-Pugh scores to predict 3-month survival. The prediction of overall survivals was estimated by comparing actuarial curves of subgroups of patients stratified according to either Child-Pugh scores or MELD risk scores.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 23.7 months, 55 patients died, 14 underwent liver transplantation and seven were lost to follow-up. For 3-month survival, the discrimination power of MELD score was superior to Child-Pugh score (0.84 vs. 0.70, z=2.07; P=0.038). Unlike Pugh score, MELD score identified two subgroups of Child C patients with different overall survivals (P=0.027). The comparison between observed and predicted survivals showed that MELD score overrates death risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score is superior to Child-Pugh score as predictor of short-term outcome after TIPS. Its accuracy, however, decreases for long-term predictions.