Improving Bayesian population dynamics inference: a coalescent-based model for multiple loci

Empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler: a tool for incorporating radiocarbon-date and calibration error into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA

Studies of DNA from ancient samples provide a valuable opportunity to gain insight into past evolutionary and demographic processes. Bayesian phylogenetic methods can estimate evolutionary rates and timescales from ancient DNA sequences, with the ages of the samples acting as calibrations for the molecular clock. Sample ages are often estimated using radiocarbon dating, but the associated measurement error is rarely taken into account. In addition, the total uncertainty quantified by converting radiocarbon dates to calendar dates is typically ignored. Here, we present a tool for incorporating both of these sources of uncertainty into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA. This empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler (ECRS) integrates the age uncertainty for each ancient sequence over the calibrated probability density function estimated for its radiocarbon date and associated error. We use the ECRS to analyse three ancient DNA data sets. Accounting for radiocarbon-dating and calibration error appeared to have little impact on estimates of evolutionary rates and related parameters for these data sets. However, analyses of other data sets, particularly those with few or only very old radiocarbon dates, might be more sensitive to using artificially precise sample ages and should benefit from use of the ECRS.

Genomic characterization of Salmonella Cerro ST367, an emerging Salmonella subtype in cattle in the United States

Background

Within the last decade, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Cerro (S. Cerro) has become one of the most common serovars isolated from cattle and dairy farm environments in the northeastern US. The fact that this serovar is commonly isolated from subclinically infected cattle and is rarely associated with human disease, despite its frequent isolation from cattle, has led to the hypothesis that this emerging serovar may be characterized by reduced virulence. We applied comparative and population genomic approaches to (i) characterize the evolution of this recently emerged serovar and to (ii) gain a better understanding of genomic features that could explain some of the unique epidemiological features associated with this serovar.

Results

In addition to generating a de novo draft genome for one Salmonella Cerro strain, we also generated whole genome sequence data for 26 additional S. Cerro isolates, including 16 from cattle operations in New York (NY) state, 2 from human clinical cases from NY in 2008, and 8 from diverse animal sources (7 from Washington state and 1 from Florida). All isolates sequenced in this study represent sequence type ST367. Population genomic analysis showed that isolates from the NY cattle operations form a well-supported clade within S. Cerro ST367 (designated here “NY bovine clade”), distinct from isolates from Washington state, Florida and the human clinical cases. A molecular clock analysis indicates that the most recent common ancestor of the NY bovine clade dates back to 1998, supporting the recent emergence of this clone.

Comparative genomic analyses revealed several relevant genomic features of S. Cerro ST367, that may be responsible for reduced virulence of S. Cerro, including an insertion creating a premature stop codon in sopA. In addition, patterns of gene deletion in S. Cerro ST367 further support adaptation of this clone to a unique ecological or host related niche.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that the increase in prevalence of S. Cerro ST367 is caused by a highly clonal subpopulation and that S. Cerro ST367 is characterized by unique genomic deletions that may indicate adaptation to specific ecological niches and possibly reduced virulence in some hosts.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi: 10.1186/1471-2164-15-427) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.

Air travel is associated with intracontinental spread of dengue virus serotypes 1-3 in Brazil

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil.

Inferring heterogeneous evolutionary processes through time: from sequence substitution to phylogeography

Molecular phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions generally assume time-homogeneous substitution processes. Motivated by computational convenience, this assumption sacrifices biological realism and offers little opportunity to uncover the temporal dynamics in evolutionary histories. Here, we propose an evolutionary approach that explicitly relaxes the time-homogeneity assumption by allowing the specification of different infinitesimal substitution rate matrices across different time intervals, called epochs, along the evolutionary history. We focus on an epoch model implementation in a Bayesian inference framework that offers great modeling flexibility in drawing inference about any discrete data type characterized as a continuous-time Markov chain, including phylogeographic traits. To alleviate the computational burden that the additional temporal heterogeneity imposes, we adopt a massively parallel approach that achieves both fine- and coarse-grain parallelization of the computations across branches that accommodate epoch transitions, making extensive use of graphics processing units. Through synthetic examples, we assess model performance in recovering evolutionary parameters from data generated according to different evolutionary scenarios that comprise different numbers of epochs for both nucleotide and codon substitution processes. We illustrate the usefulness of our inference framework in two different applications to empirical data sets: the selection dynamics on within-host HIV populations throughout infection and the seasonality of global influenza circulation. In both cases, our epoch model captures key features of temporal heterogeneity that remained difficult to test using ad hoc procedures. [Bayesian inference; BEAGLE; BEAST; Epoch Model; phylogeography; Phylogenetics.]

The phylogeography and spatiotemporal spread of south-central skunk rabies virus

The south-central skunk rabies virus (SCSK) is the most broadly distributed terrestrial viral lineage in North America. Skunk rabies has not been efficiently targeted by oral vaccination campaigns and represents a natural system of pathogen invasion, yielding insights to rabies emergence. In the present study we reconstructed spatiotemporal spread of SCSK in the whole territory of its circulation using a combination of Bayesian methods. The analysis based on 241 glycoprotein gene sequences demonstrated that SCSK is much more divergent phylogenetically than was appreciated previously. According to our analyses the SCSK originated in the territory of Texas ~170 years ago, and spread geographically during the following decades. The wavefront velocity in the northward direction was significantly greater than in the eastward and westward directions. Rivers (except the Mississippi River and Rio Grande River) did not constitute significant barriers for epizootic spread, in contrast to deserts and mountains. The mean dispersal rate of skunk rabies was lower than that of the raccoon and fox rabies. Viral lineages circulate in their areas with limited evidence of geographic spread during decades. However, spatiotemporal reconstruction shows that after a long period of stability the dispersal rate and wavefront velocity of SCSK are increasing. Our results indicate that there is a need to develop control measures for SCSK, and suggest how such measure can be implemented most efficiently. Our approach can be extrapolated to other rabies reservoirs and used as a tool for investigation of epizootic patterns and planning interventions towards disease elimination.